WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 7.5S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 7.2S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 7.0S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 7.9S 41.9E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. JOBO HAS BECOME
MORE DISORGANIZED, WITH A 231820Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALING THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF A
SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KTS BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS DECREASING, NOW 10-20 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MOSTLY IN THE MID- TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, MODEL ANALYSIS AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY FROM
CIMSS INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE 900-
600 MB LAYER IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST, PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM BEING
SUSTAINED. THIS IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR JOBO TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY. THIS DRY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
COASTLINE OF TANZANIA BY A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. JOBO IS THUS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS
JUST OFFSHORE OF TANZANIA NEAR DAR ES SALAAM, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION
OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INLAND OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN
TANZANIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
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