WTIO30 FMEE 231859
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EMERGED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION UNDER THE EFFECT OF MID-TROPOSPHERE
SHEAR, AS SHOWN IN THE 1356Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF THE SYSTEM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

JOBO KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CHANNEL, FROM SATURDAY. THE DISPERSION IN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE
MODELS IS HIGH IN DIRECTION. JOBO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING MORE THAN 300
KM NORTH OF THE GREAT COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND CONTINUES ITS TRACK
TOWARDS THE TANZANIAN COAST. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO LAND BETWEEN
ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA ON SATURDAY EVENING.

AT THE MOMENT IT IS MAINLY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY SHEAR THAT
SEEMS TO WEAKEN JOBO. TOMORROW, THE SHEAR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURABLY BEFORE ITS LANDING, AS A
FILLING LOW.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS, THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EASE
OFF OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE WEAKENING OF
JOBO BEFORE LANDFALL, THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TERMS OF
WIND. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LANDING ZONE BETWEEN
ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA FROM SUNDAY, ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 200/300 MM IN
24 HOURS (EVEN VERY LOCALLY 400 TO 500 MM) ARE LIKELY. THESE RAINFALL QUANTITIES ARE EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL.
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