WTIO30 FMEE 231833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 32.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 29.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 27.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELOISE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND IN MOZAMBIQUE.
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER AND CONCERNS
RATHER THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM
INLAND STATIONS CLOSE TO THE CENTER (MASSANGENA) PLEAD FOR WINDS OF
THE ORDER OF 25KT, ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION IS DOUBTFUL.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK: THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, ELOISE
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS OF SOUTH AFRICA BORDERING
BOTSWANA.

ON THIS TRACK, ELOISE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON LAND.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, ALBEIT WEAKENING OVER THE COURSE
OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESUME DURING THE NIGHT
OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE
EFFECT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE MOZAMBIQUE-ZIMBABWE-SOUTH AFRICA BORDER AREA, INCLUDING ALSO
SWAZILAND, UNTIL TUESDAY. THE MAIN RISK IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS.
THIS RISK CONCERNS ON THE ONE HAND BOTSWANA IN DIRECT LINK WITH THE
REMAINS OF ELOISE UNTIL TUESDAY AND ON THE OTHER HAND THE
NORTH-EASTERN ZONE OF SOUTH AFRICA INCLUDING SWAZILAND AND SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. INDEED, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RISE OF A COLD FRONT,
HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION ON TERRE ELOISE
WILL CONCERN THESE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TRACK.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
IN THE COMING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
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