WTPQ30 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 127.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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