WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 9.9S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.7S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 9.3S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.8S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 8.3S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 8.0S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 44.8E.
22APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
NEAR RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND WITHIN LOW-LEVEL
BANDING EVIDENT IN 221318Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 29S HAS TRACKED
STEADILY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH (28-29C), MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KTS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT HAVE INDUCED A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
TC 29S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH UNTIL IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL TANZANIA AROUND TAU 72. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST,
WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD NOW EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIVERGES THEREAFTER DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE VORTEX IN EACH MODEL AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING PATTERN AS MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND
231500Z.//
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