WTIO30 FMEE 231242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 33.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 26.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/26 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 24.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/26 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 22.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELOISE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MOZAMBIQUE WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE SHOULD DRIFT
WESTWARD, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

ELOISE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SPORADIC ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE WILL AFFECT SEVERAL
SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES MAINLY BY A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS: HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND
SWAZILAND (AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH) AND WILL
ALSO REACH EASTERN BOTSWANA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY (DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ELOISE REMNANTS).

THE INHABITANTS OF THE COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
IN THE COMING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
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