AXAU02 APRF 220633
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0632 UTC 22/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 97.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [232 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 22/1200: 13.3S 97.3E: 025 [045]: 035 [065]: 995
+12: 22/1800: 13.5S 97.4E: 040 [075]: 035 [065]: 995
+18: 23/0000: 13.8S 97.4E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 23/0600: 14.2S 97.5E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 995
+36: 23/1800: : : :
+48: 24/0600: : : :
+60: 24/1800: : : :
+72: 25/0600: : : :
+96: 26/0600: : : :
+120: 27/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
The low level centre of tropical low 10U remains well exposed from the deep convection that is displaced to the west of the system and as a result the position accuracy is good. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a shear pattern with less than three-quarters of a degree between the low level centre and the deep convection, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT were both 2.0. FT was based on MET.

An ASCAT pass at 0206UTC showed a swath of gales within about 110nm of the system centre in the northern semicircle, with maximum winds of 35-40 knots. As of 0600UTC, gales were continuing about the Cocos Island National Tidal Centre Automatic Weather Station [AWS] and winds remained below gale force at the Cocos Island Airport AWS.

Tropical low 10U is currently in an area of strong vertical wind shear on the northern side of the upper ridge, under a divergent easterly flow. The middle level circulation is weak, and displaced well to the west of the low level circulation. As a result, the system will likely take some time to reconsolidate
into a deep circulation [if it does at all], and therefore it is rated a low chance of forming into a tropical cyclone from Sunday.

At the moment the system is slow-moving but it should start to be guided in a general southerly direction into Saturday by a low to mid-level ridge situated to the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.

et
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