WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 27.5S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.9S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 171.2E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
409 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED, WITH THE LOWER LEVELS DECOUPLING AND LAGGING BEHIND THE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A PARTIAL 111013Z
ASCAT-B PASS LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SAME
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 35-40KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY WEAKENING CIRCULATION. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS), CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 28P IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST, BUT FORWARD SPEED HAS
SLOWED AS IT DECOUPLES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 35 KNOTS AND
SSTS WILL COOL TO LESS THAN 25C, LEADING TO RAPID DISSIPATION BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.//
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