WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 26.1S 169.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 169.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.3S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.3S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 169.7E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
294 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100520Z
SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT WHILE THE MSI INDICATED A
SYMMETRIC CORE, IT IS VERY ASYMMETRIC, WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH
ONLY SHALLOW BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE MICROWAVE DATA
ALSO REVEALED A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED EYE-LIKE FEATURE WHICH LENT
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 40 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON A
PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS WHICH REVEALED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS). TC 28P IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR. THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C, THOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WEAKENING FOR THE PRESENT. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
TO ABOVE 35 KTS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MOVEMENT OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE TC 28P
NO LATER THAN TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
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