WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 167.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 167.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.0S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.4S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 167.7E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WELL-ORGANIZED CORE CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING. EARLIER RADAR
IMAGERY FROM NEW CALEDONIA HAD SHOWN AN EYE FEATURE AND CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DESPITE THE SYSTEM'S
HYBRID NATURE AND LOCATION WITHIN FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
AND PERSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), TC 28P WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST, EAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AS
INDICATED ON A 101848Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUMEA (91592) AT 10/1500Z ALONG THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WERE NNW AT 35 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF
999MB. ADDITIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA TONTOUTA (91590) FROM 10/1330-1400Z INDICATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 48 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP
NEAR 998MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE IN EIR, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 35
KNOTS, WHICH IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH SURFACE WIND AND SLP REPORTS. TC
28P IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 24. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
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