AXAU01 APRF 081849
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 08/04/2021

Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.5S
Longitude: 110.7E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [217 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 09/0000: 19.1S 110.2E: 040 [070]: 035 [065]: 998
+12: 09/0600: 19.7S 109.7E: 055 [100]: 040 [075]: 995
+18: 09/1200: 20.2S 109.1E: 065 [120]: 045 [085]: 991
+24: 09/1800: 20.6S 108.6E: 075 [145]: 050 [095]: 987
+36: 10/0600: 21.4S 108.0E: 090 [170]: 060 [110]: 978
+48: 10/1800: 22.8S 108.7E: 100 [185]: 065 [120]: 975
+60: 11/0600: 25.2S 110.8E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 980
+72: 11/1800: 28.5S 114.8E: 150 [280]: 055 [100]: 981
+96: 12/1800: : : :
+120: 13/1800: : : :

REMARKS:
Seroja has not significantly developed overnight with the deepest convection removed well to the south of the system. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on
a curved band pattern with a 0.3-0.4 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.0-2.5. MET and PAT were both 2.5. The CI has now been lowered to 2.5, though based on
SCAT
scatterometry at 1324UTC and the expectation that the system will intensify once again Seroja has been maintained as a tropical cyclone.

It is expected that Seroja should intensify into the weekend with the system expected to be situated in an environment conducive for development with lowering vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. There is the potential for Seroja to reach category 3 intensity over the weekend with a poleward outflow channel expected to develop due to an approaching upper trough to the west of the system. The intensification process of Seroja may be complicated or enhanced by the close proximity of the system to tropical low 23U during today and into Saturday.

Tropical cyclone Seroja is forecast to track towards the southwest over open waters, north of Western Australia, during today and into Saturday under the influence of a mid-level high situated to the east of the system. Into Sunday, Seroja is expected to turn to the southeast due to an approaching mid-latitude trough from the west and track towards the west coast of Western Australia before making landfall during late Sunday or early Monday between Carnarvon and Jurien Bay.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0130 UTC.
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