AXAU02 APRF 061316
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1316 UTC 06/04/2021

Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 106.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 06/1800: 16.1S 106.0E: 050 [090]: 035 [065]: 994
+12: 07/0000: 16.0S 106.0E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 994
+18: 07/0600: 15.9S 105.8E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 994
+24: 07/1200: 15.6S 105.6E: 080 [145]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 08/0000: 15.1S 105.4E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+48: 08/1200: 14.5S 105.3E: 115 [215]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 09/0000: 14.1S 105.8E: 145 [270]: 045 [085]: 990
+72: 09/1200: 14.2S 107.2E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 991
+96: 10/1200: 17.2S 109.6E: 290 [540]: 035 [065]: 997
+120: 11/1200: 21.0S 110.3E: 400 [740]: 035 [065]: 998

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 23U has been located this evening by microwave imagery providing fair confidence in the location.

Deep convection is confined to the southwest quadrant and this is consistent with the CIMSS shear analysis at 0600UTC of 16knots from the northeast. Data T values have been 2.5 from a shear pattern over the past 3 hours. A W- trend was applied to give a MET/PAt of 2.5 with FT/CI also at 2.5. ADT values are similar with 1 minute winds of 39 - 43 knots. There is no recent SATCON estimate. Final intensity is set at 35 knots with gales present only in the southwest quadrant.

In the short term models agree that 23U will be slow moving and that shear and dry air will constrain development. From Thursday models indicate that 23U and TC Seroja could interact. Though most model runs indicate some level of interaction there is a variation in the outcome and a higher than usual degree of uncertainty is associated with the longer term track for 23U. There is still a possibility that 23U could impact the Pilbara coast later in the week or over the weekend.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1930 UTC.
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