AXAU01 APRF 040722
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0722 UTC 04/04/2021

Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.4S
Longitude: 123.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: north [000 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 04/1200: 10.4S 123.4E: 050 [090]: 035 [065]: 992
+12: 04/1800: 10.4S 123.1E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 990
+18: 05/0000: 10.6S 122.7E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 990
+24: 05/0600: 10.9S 122.1E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 986
+36: 05/1800: 11.6S 120.7E: 095 [180]: 050 [095]: 982
+48: 06/0600: 12.5S 119.1E: 115 [215]: 060 [110]: 979
+60: 06/1800: 13.6S 117.6E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 976
+72: 07/0600: 15.3S 115.6E: 175 [325]: 070 [130]: 970
+96: 08/0600: 17.8S 111.7E: 250 [465]: 075 [140]: 961
+120: 09/0600: 19.3S 110.5E: 350 [650]: 070 [130]: 965

REMARKS:
Fair position based on Kupang radar and H-8 visible animation, close to the southern coast of Timor with slow movement. No scatterometer passes over the LLCC during last 18 hours, but peripheral passes around 0150UTC indicate a
mall
area of gales under a convective band in northern Savu Sea.

Persistent spiral bands of deep convection continue to develop during daylight hours, although central convection has weakened consistent with normal diurnal trends. 0600 UTC Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern [0.5 wrap], yielding DT=2.5. FT=2.5 based on DT and MET with an intensity of 30kn.

Environment is favourable for further development in the short term with deep moisture, low vertical wind shear under the axis of an upper ridge and good outflow in northern sectors. Gales are forecast in southern sectors this
vening
over exposed waters south of the centre, but TC development has been inhibited by proximity to mountainous islands to the north and west. TC intensity
xpected
to be reached early Monday as the system moves north of Rote island, with unimpeded inflow from over the Savu Sea.

Steady southwest movement is forecast from Monday as the mid-level ridge strengthens to the south, taking the system away from the Indonesian archipelago. Further intensification is likely, despite a slight increase in shear with the cyclone possibly reaching category 3 intensity over open waters north of WA early Wednesday. Interaction with another tropical system to the west makes the extended forecast uncertain, with further intensification restricted by shear and movement over cooler seas. Various track scenarios are possible later this week with the cyclone located in the Indian Ocean offshore from the Northwest Cape area.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1330 UTC.
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