WTIO30 FMEE 281312
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/15/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 15

2.A POSITION 2021/03/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 68.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/29 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2021/03/29 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

36H: 2021/03/30 00 UTC: 8.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

48H: 2021/03/30 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

60H: 2021/03/31 00 UTC: 7.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

72H: 2021/03/31 12 UTC: 7.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DT=2.0-;CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY
DETERIORATED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED ON THEIR WARMING TREND AND
THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE HAS FALLEN APART, WITH THE MAXIMUM OF
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL REMNANT VORTEX DISPLACED FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (ABOUT 200 NM) AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS
OF DISORGANIZATION, WITH THE BIRTH OF A NEW CENTER TO THE NORTH OF
THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW ESTIMATED FROM THIS MORNING'S ASCAT DATA,
WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE SURFACE CENTER. ALL THESE
ELEMENTS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING. INTENSITY
IS THUS BROUGHT DOWN TO 25KT, WITHOUT WAITING FOR A DECREASE OF
DVORAK'S CI NUMBER.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE : INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR (IN EXCESS
OF 30KT) COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AS WELL AS TOO INDIRECT EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SHOULD LEAD TO DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK.

UNTIL TUESDAY THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE DYNAMIC OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND SURGE WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH REMAINS WEAK AND SHALLOW. IT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM'S REMNANTS SHOULD TRACK PAST THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ABOUT THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT IN CASE OF REINTENSIFICATION.
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