ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132151ZJAN21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 73.9E, APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141204Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOW SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTOA
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 99SIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOODAGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK
WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 96.2E, APPROXIMATELY 116
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141519Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. A 140707Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. INVEST 90S IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING
THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 132200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 152130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/152130Z-161800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152051ZJAN2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15JAN21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1590 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 152100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 68.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 67.5E, APPROXIMATELY
407NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151152Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH. A 1642Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS 25-
30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE SW QUADRANT. INVEST
99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 142100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 95.7E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND UPGRADED AREA 2.B.(2) TO WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 162130 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN CORRECTED/161800Z-171800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 16JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6S 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 67.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 65.2E, APPROXIMATELY 532
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 161438Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. INVEST
99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (35-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADJUSTED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IN PARA. 2.B.(1)
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 170930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/170930Z-171800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170753ZJAN2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1222 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 17JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 62.1E, APPROXIMATELY 528 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 170900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 65.2E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZJAN2021//
NARR/REFS A AND A ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1214 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 17JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 62.1E, APPROXIMATELY 528 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 170900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 201530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/201530Z-201800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201452ZJAN2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B AND C ARE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 20JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 48.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
200900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY
265 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200222Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 200607Z
ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25KT WIND
BARBS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 201500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 153
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY,
201202Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND
STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C
#
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ABIO10 PGTW 212130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/212130Z-222130ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZJAN2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZJAN2021//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 42.7E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 210900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 21JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 97.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1116 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
211500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 21JAN21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS33 PGTW
212100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 119.9E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 25JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 26JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 2065 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 261500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 27JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1861 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011354ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 01FEB21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.1S 118.1E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 61.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /091800Z-101800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 100.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 99.4E, APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
INVEST 98S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD AND WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 643 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111623Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANINZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 99S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABIO10 PGTW 132230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/132230Z-141800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132151ZJAN21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 77.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 77.7E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 131336Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
DISORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 131541Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 15
NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 131541Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO A TIGHTENING CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS
ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 27KTS WITH SLP 1004MB
(3MB 24HR PRESSURE DECREASE). A 131425Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
TIGHT LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WRAPPING WINDS AND SMALL AREA OF 30-35
KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,INTENSIFYING TO WARNING
THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 132200) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
HIGH AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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