WTIO30 FMEE 160046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 50/13/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 70.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 140

36H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/03/18 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/03/18 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/19 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (20-30KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS), AND DRY AIR ALOFT, THE CENTER IS STILL TOTALLY
EXPOSED DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS STILL PRESENT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HABANA RESUMED A WESTERLY MOTION, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A MID/LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WHILE FILLING-UP,
HABANA SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, INDICATING A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL
ON THE TIMING.

WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCONDUCIVE FOR HABANA. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACKWARDS OVER WATERS IT ALREADY COOLED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TODAY MAY HELP IN THE PERSISTENCE OF NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS, HABANA'S RESIDUAL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITH NO MAJOR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND
RAINFALL.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THE SYSTEM HABANA BY RSMC LA REUNION,
UNLESS IT INTENSIFIES AGAIN. IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED IN THE DAILY
AWIO20 BULLETIN.
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