WTIO30 FMEE 151834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 49/13/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85

36H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/03/17 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/03/18 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (20-30KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS), AND DRY AIR ALOFT, THE CENTER IS NOW TOTALLY
EXPOSED DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS STILL PRESENT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH THE LACK OF ASCAT SWATH
IN THE ARE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS. SMAP AND SMOS AFTERNOON SWATH GAVE
AROUND RESPECTIVELY 46KT AND 48KT BUT SEEMS TO OVERESTIMATE A BIT THE
WIND STRENGTH. INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 35KT.


HABANA CURRENTLY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
WESTERLY MOTION SHORTLY, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A
MID/LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WHILE FILLING-UP,
HABANA SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, INDICATING A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL
ON THE TIMING.

WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCONDUCIVE FOR HABANA. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACKWARDS OVER WATERS IT ALREADY COOLED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TOMORROW MAY HELP IN THE PERSISTENCE OF
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

FROM WEDNESDAY, HABANA'S RESIDUAL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND WITH NO MAJOR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND RAINFALL.
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