WTIO30 FMEE 141832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 95

24H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SW: 325 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 260 NW: 65

48H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/18 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED: THE SHEARED CENTER OF THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW BACK UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. THE ASCAT PASSES A AND B OF RESPECTIVELY 1523Z AND
1638Z, HAVE RECORDED 55 KT AND 57 KT OF MAX WIND. THESE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKER WINDS EXTENDING
LESS FAR INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RADIUS OF MAX WIND ALSO
APPEARED TO BE WIDENED, THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
DESPITE A FINAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 60 KT.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE. HABANA IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. TOMORROW MONDAY AND ONWARDS, IT SHOULD
RESUME ITS WESTWARDS TRACK, AFTER WEAKENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, EXPECTED THEN TO BE FILLING UP, WILL
CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE INNER CORE. THE WEAK MOVEMENT MAY
LIMIT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL
WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALL ABOVE THE CENTER. WE CAN ALSO POINT OUT
THAT ON THE NEW TRACK FORECAST, HABANA WILL PASS AGAIN ON THE WATERS
THAT IT HAS COOLED ITSELF. A MARKED WEAKENING IS THUS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
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