WTIO30 FMEE 111838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 73.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 85

120H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE HABANA EYE PATTERN REMAINED IMPRESSIVE
BUT SHOWED MANY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND STRUCTURE. WEAKNESSES
IN THE CONVECTIVE RING HAVE BEEN NOTED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
SECTOR. IT SEEMS THAT THE WIND STRUCTURE WAS COMPACTED CAUSING THESE FLUCTUATIONS AND INDUCING A 3 HOURS AVERAGE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 6.5-,
DUE TO SOME LOW VALUES. THE MICROWAVE DATA, ESPECIALLY THE GPM OF
1740UTC, SHOWS A LOW LAYER STRUCTURE WITH TWO RINGS, ARGUING FOR A
NEW ERC. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WIND STRUCTURE HAS STABILIZED
TO SEE A NEXT INTENSIFICATION OF HABANA IN THE UPPER STAGE. FOR NOW,
HABANA REMAINS IN THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH WINDS IN
THE 110KT RANGE.

HABANA CONTINUES TO CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH BY SATURDAY WHILE
SLOWING DOWN. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE STEERING FLOWS BECOME VERY WEAK AND OPPOSITE, LEADING
TO A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, A
STRONG DISPERSION IS PRESENT ON THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE, BUT THE MOST
RECENT ONES INDICATE AN INCREASING TENDENCY TO A NEW DISPLACEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH-WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH TAKES AGAIN THE HAND.
THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO, BUT WITH A
CONFIDENCE THAT REMAINS MODEST ON THESE LONG TIME SCALES.

NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY, ALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. AN ERC IS IN PROGRESS LEAVING HABANA'S INTENSITY
OSCILLATING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE STAGE OF A VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12/18 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY AND
MORE CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, AN INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY IN THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING RADICALLY HABANA.
MOREOVER, ITS ERRATIC TRACK, LEAVING IT ON THE SAME AREA, SHOULD HELP
TO REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND CONTRIBUTE A LITTLE MORE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, IMMERSED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP A WEAK INTENSITY. IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST, IT COULD APPROACH RODRIGUES, BUT AT A STAGE OF DEPRESSION
FILLING OR REMNANT LOW INTENSITY.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LAND.
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