WTIO30 FMEE 101836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 75.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/7.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.5 CI=7.0

THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS
WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND AN EYE THAT LOSES ITS
DEFINITION ESPECIALLY ON THE LAST IMAGES. THESE IMAGES REVEAL IN FACT
THE ERC CONFIGURATION WELL VISIBLE ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY TODAY.
THE AMSU-B IMAGERY FROM THE N19, METOP-A THEN METOP-B SWATHS OF THE
EVENING, REVEAL THE CONSOLIDATION OF A SECONDARY EYE OF 25 TO 30 MN
OF DIAMETER, WHICH SHOULD APPEAR IN THE NEXT HOURS ON CLASSICAL
IMAGERY. THE MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS HAS STILL BEEN POSITIONED AT THE
INNER EYEWALL BUT MAY HAVE ALREADY SHIFT TO THE OUTER EYEWALL. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A TOUGH ONE AND STILL NOT FOLLOW USUAL DVORAK
GUIDANCE IN SUCH A CONTEXT. A WEAKENING BEING GENERALLY NOTICED IN
THESE PHASES OF TRANSITION, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 100
KT.

SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND MAINLY AT THE END OF THE
TRACK. HABANA IS HEADING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW, MOST MODELS
SUGGEST A GRADUEL SOUTH-WESTERLY DIP TOWARDS A WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY,
AS IT WEAKENS, HABANA SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS MOTION TO START A MORE
ERRATIC MOTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERE OPPOSING
FLOWS. THE MAIN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BEGINNING OF THE
TRACK BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY AN D
BEYOND ON THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE AND THE EVACUATION OR NOT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR AN
ERRATIC TRACK AROUND 20S AND TEND TO FOLLOW THE ONGOING TREND OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO MAINTAIN HABANA AT STRONG INTENSITY. IN THE SHORT TERM, IT
IS RATHER THE STARTED ERC THAT TAKE THE LEAD ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. ONCE THE ERC IS OVER, HABANA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS AND THEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY, AN INCREASE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE HEART OF
THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN HABANA. HOWEVER, NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE
PRESENCE OF THE SATURDAY SHEAR, WHICH MAY OCCUR LATER. THERE IS
THEREFORE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ON THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION, EITHER ON SHORT TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE ERC OR ON
LONGER TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSION.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.
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