WTIO30 FMEE 081234
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20202021
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-IMAN)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 62.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 250 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS AGAIN THE
EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR ON IMAN, WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CIRRUS ARC AS
WELL AS THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPELLED FAR TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AT THE FRONT OF THE LOW LAYER CENTER
CIRCULATION WHICH IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE 0530Z ASCAT-C SWATH SHOWED A
LOWER CIRCULATION BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE ELONGATED,
CONFIRMING THE POST-TROPICAL STATUS OF IMAN.

THE SYSTEM KEEPS HEADING ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAT SHOULD CAPTURE IMAN. FROM TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, IMAN WILL BE SLOWED DOWN AND THEN BLOCKED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST, LEAVING IT AT
THE STAGE OF RESIDUAL LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 35KT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TODAY ANS
TOMORROW THANKS TO THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION PROCESSES. THEN, THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

IMAN NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)