• TROPDISC: Tropical Weathe

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Jan 15 01:46:00 2021
    132
    AXNT20 KNHC 141741
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1730 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W,
    to 05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 03N40W.
    Scattered moderate convection is found within 210nm south of the
    monsoon trough between 11W and 18W. Scattered showers are located
    along and north of the ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 22W and 33W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front persists from the Yucatan Channel through the
    Straits of Florida and into the western Atlantic. The latest NWS
    Doppler Radar data shows a few isolated showers along the frontal
    boundary. A 1020 mb high is centered near 24N91W. Gentle
    anticyclonic flow driven by this high dominates the Gulf of
    Mexico.

    The 1020 mb high will weaken and drift E tonight. The stationary
    front will dissipate later today. A cold front will move into the
    NW Gulf early Fri, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to 22N95W
    to southern Mexico south of Veracruz Fri evening. Reinforcing
    cold air will increase winds behind the front across the northern
    Gulf Fri night and Sat while the front weakens and sinks SE of
    the basin. High pressure will prevail over the Gulf Sun and Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front extends from the Yucatan Channel northeast to
    the Florida Straits. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh northeast
    winds north of the front over the Yucatan Channel. The
    Colombian/Panamanian low is located just off the coast of
    Colombia near 10N76W. The latest ASCAT data shows an area of
    strong trades from the Colombian coast to 14N between 72W and
    77W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and isolated showers
    span the rest of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

    The stationary front from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan
    Channel will dissipate later today. Trade winds across the
    central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Fri as high
    pressure north of the region shifts eastward. A weak cold front
    will enter the NW Caribbean Fri night, then stall and dissipate
    from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Sun.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front entered the western Atlantic this morning and
    currently extends from 28N78W to at 1010mb low at 35N72W. Fresh
    to strong W to NW winds follow behind the front. A stationary
    front extends from 31N64W through the Bahamas to the Straits of
    Florida. Scattered showers are near the front from 27N to 32N
    between 60W and 70W. A central Atlantic cold front extends from
    a low north of the area to 32N50W to 31N52W. Scattered moderate
    convection and fresh to strong SW winds are located north of 30N
    between 35W and 47W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow extends
    over the eastern Atlantic between 20N and 30N.

    The weakening stationary front from 31N64W across the northern
    Bahamas to the Florida Straits will gradually merge tonight with
    the cold front off northern Florida. Expect increasing SW winds
    ahead of the new front, north of the Bahamas. Strong W winds will
    follow the front north of the NW Bahamas late Sat. The front will
    reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat
    morning, from 31N61W to 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then
    stall and dissipate through Mon.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jan 16 02:33:00 2021
    484
    AXNT20 KNHC 151746
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1650 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
    06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N35W to
    the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
    is noted from 02N-10Nbetween 10W-20W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the central
    Gulf near 25N90W to the east coast of Mexico near 23N98W. An
    ASCAT pass at 1432 UTC revealed fresh N winds in the western
    half of the basin and gentle to moderate S-SE flow off the
    western coast of Florida. Fresh SW winds are noted in buoy data
    ahead of the front over the northern Gulf. Radar as of 1600 UTC
    shows showers and thunderstorms east of the front, off the coast
    of Florida near 30N84W. Isolated showers are also ahead and
    within 50 nm of the front in the central Gulf. Seas range from 4
    to 8 ft behind the front. Farther south, a stationary front
    reaches from the Straits of Florida to the western Caribbean
    Sea.

    The cold front from the will move eastward across the entire
    Gulf through tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting
    strong NW winds and building seas over the northeast and north
    central Gulf tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in
    the wake of the front and support generally tranquil marine
    conditions across the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will
    shift east of the area early next week, allowing winds and seas
    to increase over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high
    pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the
    coast of NW Cuba, and into the western Caribbean. Showers are
    along the front due to light, moist southerly flow overrunning
    the frontal boundary. A weak surface trough is noted from the
    NE coast of Cuba to 15N82W supporting light showers in the NW
    Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the entire basin
    with the exception of just off the coast of Colombia where fresh
    to strong trade winds are noted along with seas ranging from 6-9
    ft.

    The cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will move SE
    through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then weaken as it moves
    across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from
    eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate
    through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front
    north of the region will support expansion of fresh to strong
    trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most
    of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun through
    Tue night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE
    winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The stationary front across the Caribbean and the Straits of
    Florida extends to 27N64W, where it transitions to a cold front
    to 32N58W. A secondary cold front extends from 32N65W to 28N71W.
    This front is associated with a rapidly intensifying 995 mb
    developing storm center northeast of Bermuda. Recent
    scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SW-W wind along and
    just ahead of the cold front north of 27N, with seas reaching 10
    ft. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted west
    of 55W.

    Farther east, a 1034 mb high pressure center near Madeira is
    supporting fresh to strong NE winds over a large area off the
    coast of Africa, east of 40E and south of the Canary Islands.

    The cold front sweeping eastward over the waters north of 27N
    will reinforce the weak stationary front. The merged front will
    continue eastward and move east of 65W late today. The next
    cold front will enter the NW waters tonight and reach from
    31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning,
    from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and
    dissipate through Mon. Meanwhile, another front will move off
    the NE Florida coast late Sun night, move east and reach from
    Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to
    eastern Cuba by late Tue.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jan 16 20:35:00 2021
    224
    AXNT20 KNHC 161034
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is currently moving
    through the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, with
    reinforcing cold air moving into the northern Gulf. Strong to near
    gale force winds are mixing to the surface, as noted in recent
    buoy and platform observations and scatterometer data. Buoy data
    also indicates there are frequent gusts to gale force over the
    north central Gulf, and a gale warning is in effect through the
    morning for the north central and northeast Gulf. Seas are
    building to as high as 11 ft in the north central and northeast
    Gulf as well.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
    near 06N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 04N30W
    to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
    between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate convection is also
    observed from 01N to 04N between 20W and 33W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section for information on the
    gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge extends
    from high pressure over northeast Mexico to the central Gulf.
    Fresh NE winds are noted over the central and eastern Gulf with 5
    to 7 ft seas. Fresh N winds are evident in scatterometer data
    over the southwest Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate N to
    NE winds are noted over the west central Gulf near the ridge axis,
    with 3 to 5 ft seas. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted.

    For the forecast, winds over the north central and northeast Gulf
    will diminish by late afternoon today as high pressure builds
    over the western Gulf behind the front. Associated seas will
    subside this evening. The high pressure will support generally
    tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon, then
    will shift east of the area early next week. This pattern will
    support increased winds and seas over the northwest Gulf Mon and
    Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over
    Texas, before diminishing through mid week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front from western Cuba to northern Belize is
    dissipating ahead of a cold front moving through the Yucatan
    Channel. Radar from Grand Cayman indicates a few showers are
    ongoing along these boundaries over the northwest Caribbean,
    moving to the northeast. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted over
    the northwest Caribbean, although winds are likely increasing
    near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the northwest
    Caribbean. Farther south, strong trade winds are active off the
    coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla, with
    8 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
    are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Regional radar shows
    scattered showers moving quickly westward in the trade flow across
    the ABC Islands, as well as a few showers in the Windward Islands
    and Puerto Rico.

    For the forecast, the cold front entering the Yucatan Channel
    will weaken as it moves across the northwest Caribbean today. The
    front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
    tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the
    wake of the front north of the region will support the expansion
    of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia
    to cover most of the south- central and southwest Caribbean from
    Sun through Wed night. These winds may pulse to gale force mainly
    at night off Colombia starting Tue night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 55W: a cold front that recently moved off the northeast
    Florida coast reaches from 31N76W to West Palm Beach, Florida.
    Buoy observations show strong W to NW winds and building seas
    following the front. The front will reinforcing a mostly
    stationary front dissipating along 25N through the central Bahamas
    and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds with 5
    to 7 ft seas in open waters are evident ahead of the front in the
    waters north of 27N and west of 70W. Weak ridging centered near
    31N60W is maintaining gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered showers are evident on regional radar ahead of the front from the
    Upper Florida Keys to the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers are
    also likely ahead of the front from 27N to 29N between 70W and
    75W.

    For the forecast, the cold front moving off northeast
    Florida will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, before
    stalling from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by late Sun and dissipating
    early Mon. Another cold front will move into the waters between
    northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sun, and also stall from 26N65W
    to eastern Cuba by Mon night and early Tue, before dissipating
    through mid week.

    Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N45W to 26N55W. Ridging
    dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N, supporting fresh
    trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mainly NE swell south of 20N.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 17 02:41:00 2021
    263
    AXNT20 KNHC 162137
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2100 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong W-NW winds have arrived
    behind a strong cold front and reinforcing trough in the SW N
    Atlantic, with frequent gusts N of 28N. These winds will persist
    into early Sun. Seas will be up to 13-15 ft along 31N during this
    event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
    the National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pW39o4qBZF5A2WKqJtRPcKX_9LTORFn80vmmxe3tCvBTrWrsS01glBaaQdtq2QqY1oHRyvCr$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N33W to near
    the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated
    strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 35W-51W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N between
    24W-33W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1023 mb high centered along the coast at the the Mexico/Texas
    border continues to build in across the basin behind a now
    departed cold front. This high has a ridge axis extending
    southward to the western Bay of Campeche and to the east-
    southeast to the Straits of Florida. Morning scatterometer data
    showed fresh to strong W-NW flow in the eastern Gulf, with
    moderate to fresh NW-N flow in the central Gulf, and gentle to
    moderate flow in the western Gulf closest to the high center.
    Lingering large seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters east of 92W,
    with seas of 3-6 ft west of 92W.

    Fresh to strong NW winds over the north-central and northeast
    Gulf will diminish to 20 kt or less tonight. High pressure will
    dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to
    strong southerly return flow will set-up over the northwest Gulf
    Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure
    farther west over Texas. These winds will diminish some by the
    middle of next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from the SW N Atlantic to across central Cuba
    to along the north coast of Honduras and Gulf of Honduras.
    Scattered showers are possible east of the boundary. Moderate to
    fresh N-NE winds follow the front along with 5-7 ft, locally to 8
    ft near the Yucatan Channel. Morning scatterometer data showed
    mainly moderate to fresh trades east of the front, except gentle
    winds within 120 nm southeast of the front. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft
    east of the front, except locally to 8 ft northwest of the coast
    of Colombia, and 2-4 ft within 120 nm southeast of the front.

    The cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of
    Honduras will stall tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High
    pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region
    will bring increasing winds and building seas over the south-
    central Caribbean, with gale conditions possible near the coast of
    Colombia at night starting Sun night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    There is a gale warning in effect for the SW N Atlantic basin.
    Please see Special Features section for more details.

    West of 55W, a cold front extends from 32N71W to across the
    central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated
    strong convection is noted north of 22N and east of the front.
    Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong southerly flow N
    of 24N within 90-180 nm ahead of the front, with gentle to
    moderate southerly flow elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except
    4-7 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
    Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight before stalling from 27N65W to
    eastern Cuba on Sun, dissipating on Mon. A reinforcing cold front
    will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda
    late Sun, and stall from 27N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon night into
    Tue. The front will then reach from from 23N65W to eastern Cuba
    on Wed while gradually dissipating. Another cold front is forecast
    to reach the north waters by Wed night.

    East of 55W, a cold front reaches from 32N40W to 26N53W. Scattered
    showers are possible ahead of this front. A 1031 mb high centered
    west of Portugal near 39N15W supports a ridge which reaches
    southwest-west across the remainder of the waters. Moderate to
    fresh trades and seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters S of 22N,
    locally strong near 07N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
    and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 17 17:15:00 2021
    731
    AXNT20 KNHC 171000
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
    will support strong to near gale force winds over the south-
    central Caribbean through mid week. Overnight land breezes will
    allow these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the
    coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vVQztu8d5L9d8kqRuvXvQPrRJY48MBzlHeYbpLh0Lto0O6AJCh7g13DSGSUGqxg2QiMIfxyC$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 02N40W and to the
    coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted within 90 nm on either sides of both boundaries.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends from 1016 mb high pressure centered over
    the western Gulf near 25N93W through the Straits of Florida. This
    high pressure is following a cold front that moved southeast of
    the basin yesterday. Light to gentle breezes cover the Gulf,
    except for moderate southerly flow over the southwest and west
    central Gulf. Seas are likely 5 to 7 ft in lingering NW swell over
    the eastern Gulf, although these seas are subsiding quickly. Seas
    are 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf, and are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.
    Fairly dry conditions persist for now, and no significant showers
    or thunderstorms are noted.

    For the forecast, a weak front will stall along the north Gulf
    coast tonight, then dissipate. Southerly flow will increase across
    the western Gulf through late Mon, between the high pressure
    anchored over the central Gulf and lower pressure over west Texas
    and northwest Mexico. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft
    are possible over the northwest Gulf Mon night. The southerly flow
    will also bring increased moisture over the cooler shelf waters
    of the northwest Gulf, and patchy sea fog is possible by mid week
    there. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil marine conditions will persist
    through Thu as the high pressure shifts east of the area.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central basin.
    Please see Special Features section for more details.

    A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
    eastern Cuba to central Honduras. A recent scatterometer shows
    moderate to fresh N to NE winds are evident north of the front
    over the northwest Caribbean. Seas in this plume are likely 4 to
    6 ft. Grand Cayman radar is showing only a few showers along the
    front moving to the southwest. High pressure north of the area
    building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh
    trade winds with 5 to 7 ft over the remainder of the basin, but
    with strong trade winds and seas to 8 ft off Colombia. Other than
    a few showers moving into the Windward Islands, little shower
    activity is noted.

    For the forecast, the stationary front reaching from eastern Cuba
    to central Honduras will dissipate through Mon. The high pressure
    building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring
    increasing winds and building seas over the south- central
    Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of
    Colombia mainly at night through mid week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 60W, a cold front extends from west of Bermuda near 32N62W
    to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are observed within
    90 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The main upper dynamics
    supporting the front are lifting out to the north, allowing
    sustained winds and gusts to diminish over the waters north of
    25N. Seas are still very high, with the buoy 41048 near 32N69W
    reporting 18 ft significant wave heights. This is due to shorter
    period W to NW swell. Seas in excess of 8 ft cover most of the
    area north of 26N between 65W and 75W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
    elsewhere in open waters with gentle to moderate winds.

    For the forecast for the waters west of 60W, the cold front from
    will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba late today, then will
    dissipate Mon. Another cold front will move southeast off the NE
    Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late
    Mon, then stall and dissipate from 23N65W to eastern Cuba through
    mid week. Another cold front will move southward into the waters
    between Bermuda and NE Florida Wed night, and become stationary
    along 25N into the central Bahamas by late Thu.

    Farther east, a cold front extends from the northwest Azores to
    near 30N41W, denting a ridge that prevails north of 20N. The ridge
    is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds with 8
    to 10 ft seas in mixed N and NE swell.

    $$

    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Jan 18 00:21:00 2021
    821
    AXNT20 KNHC 172107
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2100 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
    will support strong to near gale force winds over the south-
    central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Overnight land
    breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm
    off the coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and
    Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rGoZucluloOWaCsc3eQX9ZDbE4Z2GxqaqOt06wO-SFjQj0AKtLErijAE8aAdHNlrCx5woZED$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
    border of Sierra Leone and Liberia at 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ
    continues from 06N14W to 04N26W to the coast of Brazil near
    02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
    from 02N-08N between 18W-48W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered near
    the central Texas coast at 29N96W through the Straits of Florida.
    Fairly dry conditions are present, however broken to overcast
    clouds persist across the southeast half of the Gulf. No
    significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. Earlier
    scatterometer data indicated mainly gentle to moderate
    anticyclonic winds across the basin. Buoy, ship and altimeter data
    indicated seas of 3 ft or less across the northwest half of the
    basin, and 3-5 ft across the southeast half of the basin in
    lingering and decaying northwest-north swell generated by a cold
    front passage a couple of days ago.

    High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several
    days. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up over the
    northwest Gulf Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and
    lower pressure farther west over northeast Mexico. These winds
    will diminish some by the middle of the week. Fresh to locally
    strong winds are expected near and to the northwest of the
    Yucatan Peninsula through Wed night due to local effects.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
    Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

    A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
    central Cuba to north-central Honduras. Upper level ridging and
    deep layered dry air is allowing for drier conditions in the
    eastern Caribbean. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to
    fresh N-NE winds west the front and south of 19N, with gentle to
    moderate N-NE winds west of the front and N of 19N. Moderate to
    locally fresh trades prevail east of the front outside of the
    south-central Caribbean as described in the Special Features
    section above. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft across the basin, except to
    8 ft in the south-central Caribbean.

    The stationary front will dissipate through Mon. High pressure
    building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring
    increasing winds and building seas over the central and northwest
    Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the lee
    of eastern Cuba starting Mon night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from near 32N58W to 24N71W where it then
    continues as a stationary front across the southeast Bahamas to
    central Cuba. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of
    the front, with isolated thunderstorms possible south of 26N
    within 90-120 nm south-southeast of the front. The main upper
    level dynamics supporting the front are lifting out to the north,
    allowing sustained winds and gusts to continue to diminish over
    the waters, except north of 29N within 60-90 nm ahead of the
    front where earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong
    SW winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of 55W.
    Even though winds associated with the front have mainly
    diminished, lingering and large NW swell of 7-11 ft persists north
    of 26N and west of the front to around 75W, and north of 29N and
    east of the front to 60W. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of
    the waters outside of the Bahamas, with seas mainly 3 ft or less
    inside the Bahamas.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the front will completely stall
    tonight while a reinforcing by cold front moves into the area
    tonight into Mon. The merging front will extend from 27N65W to
    eastern Cuba Mon night, then reach from 24N65W to eastern Cuba on
    Tue while gradually weakening through the middle of the week.
    Another cold front will move southward into the waters between
    Bermuda and northeast Florida Wed night, and dissipate along 27N
    by late Thu. Another cold front is forecast to reach the northern
    waters on Fri.

    Farther east, a cold front extends from the Azores to near
    30N38W, denting a ridge that prevails across the waters north of
    20N. The ridge is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh
    trade winds, with locally strong winds and accompanying 6-9 ft
    seas south of 22N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
    north of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft from 22N to 26N, with 7-15 ft
    seas north of 26N, the highest along 32N, in large NW swell
    generated by the parent low of the cold front located well north
    of the area.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Jan 18 21:18:00 2021
    961
    AXNT20 KNHC 181808
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1750 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
    will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
    the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
    Overnight land breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale
    force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly between
    Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
    Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uJmnWBc_U9TBxwFYCf5rsKB_CDqyvHlqgXbcA_pQDV96ZcEEG81xxrGMeX562FDphvgRU2oS$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to
    18N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 02N33W to the coast of
    Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    01N to 05N between 16W and 24W and between 28W and 35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure over the
    Northern Gulf near 29N90W extending through the Straits of
    Florida. Dry conditions prevail over the northwestern portion
    of the Gulf. To the east, a surface trough extends from Marco
    Island to 23N85W. Scattered showers are noted near the boundary.
    Scatterometer data indicated light to gentle anticyclonic winds
    across most of the basin, while moderate winds are noted near
    the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoy, ship and altimeter data also
    indicated 2 to 4 ft.

    High pressure over the northwest Gulf will shift eastward across
    the northern Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return
    flow will set up over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue between the
    high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast
    Mexico. These winds will diminish some by Wed. A trough will
    form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night
    through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
    winds.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
    Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
    more details.

    Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
    the northwest Caribbean. Gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas
    are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
    ongoing elsewhere across the southeast and south-central
    Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Scattered showers are present
    from 14N to 19N between 79W-84W and in the Yucatan Channel.

    For the forecast, high pressure that will begin to build over
    the western Atlantic today will bring increasing winds and
    building seas over the southeast and south-central Caribbean,
    with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia
    mainly at night through Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
    also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba tonight through Wed
    night, diminishing to mainly fresh speeds Thu and to gentle to
    moderate speeds Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 50W: A weakening cold front extends from near 31N51W to
    27N60W where it then continues as a stationary front to 28N68W.
    Scattered showers are ongoing in broad swath from South Florida
    across the northern Bahamas to 31N76W. These showers are ahead
    of the cold front extending from a 1006 mb low near 37N67W to
    29N72W to 26N80W. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident
    ahead of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and west of
    63W with 5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to strong
    westerly flow is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N between
    73W to 81W.

    A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 30N58W, supporting
    light to gentle breezes north of 25N between 27W and 54W. Seas
    are quite large in this area however, reaching 7 to 11 ft in
    lingering NW swell. Moderate trade winds persist south of 27N
    with 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters.

    For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near 31N72W to
    the NW Bahamas and to Miami this afternoon, then become
    stationary from near 26N65W to 22N71W and dissipating to eastern
    Cuba by early Tue. The boundary will gradually dissipate through
    early Thu. Another cold front will move southward into waters
    between northeastern Florida and Bermuda Wed night. The main
    portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area
    Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along
    27N by late Thu. This will be followed by yet another front
    moving southward into the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida
    Fri.

    Farther east, the subtropical ridge supports gentle to moderate
    winds over the waters north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trades
    farther south. A large area of NW to N swell with significant
    wave heights reaching 8 to 13 ft are active north of 22N between
    30W and 50W. Farther south, 6 to 8 ft seas prevail in a mix of N
    swell and shorter period easterly wind waves.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jan 19 03:03:00 2021
    439
    AXNT20 KNHC 182330
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2240 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
    will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
    the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
    Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse
    to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly
    between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!puTx4RyhmntBgxbsFCEnJrONOnvFrYYp-EpK6cnGfQznMYihn-UV6qD01M5uUIuKZ20-y6Hg$
    for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends across equatorial Africa to the coast
    of Sierra Leone near 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W to
    02N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
    isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 11W
    and 42W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf near 26.5N88W,
    and generally extends a broad ridge to the SE and to the NW. Dry
    and stable conditions prevail over most of the Gulf. Scattered
    showers are along and just east of a coastal trough along the
    Mexican coast from near Cabo Rojo to Veracruz. Light to gentle
    anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, while
    moderate to fresh southeast to south winds have developed this
    afternoon across west portions north of 21N and west of 94W, where
    seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere buoy, ship and altimeter data also
    indicate seas of 2 to 3 ft.

    High pressure over the Gulf will shift eastward across the
    northeastern Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return
    flow will set up over the entire NW Gulf tonight into Tue between
    the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast
    Mexico. These winds will diminish some by Wed. A trough will form
    off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed
    night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
    Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
    more details.

    Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted over the
    northwest Caribbean, to the north of an old frontal trough
    extending from the western Cayman Islands to the eastern Gulf of
    Honduras. Strong winds to 30 kt and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted off
    of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds are ongoing elsewhere
    across the southeast and south-central Caribbean, with 5 to 8 ft
    seas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present
    from 15N to 17.5N between 81W-86W and in the Yucatan Channel.

    High pressure will begin to shift over the far western Atlantic
    today and increase the pressure gradient across the southeast and
    central Caribbean. This will produce increasing winds and
    building seas over the southeast and south-central Caribbean,
    with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly
    at night through Thu morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
    also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba tonight through Wed
    night, diminishing to fresh winds Thu and to gentle to moderate
    on Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 45W: A weakening cold front extends from near 31N50W to
    29N54W where it then continues as a stationary front to 27.5N62W.
    A cold front extends from a deepening 1001 mb low near 39N64W
    through 31N67W to 23N77W. Scattered showers are ongoing in broad
    swath from the Straits of Florida across the northern Bahamas to
    beyond 31N60W. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident ahead
    of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and west of 63W with
    5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to strong westerly flow
    is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N between 73W to 81W.

    A 1027 mb high pressure is centered over the far eastern Atlantic
    near 33N17W, extending W-SW to the southern end of the stationary
    front. The pressure gradient to the south is supporting moderate
    to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic south of 25N
    where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell.

    The cold front will become stationary from near 26N65W to 22N71W
    and dissipating to eastern Cuba by early Tue. The boundary will
    gradually dissipate through early Thu. Another cold front will
    move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and
    Bermuda Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the
    northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment
    to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This will be followed by yet
    another front moving southward into the waters between Bermuda and
    NE Florida Fri.

    $$
    Stripling
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Jan 21 01:10:00 2021
    458
    AXNT20 KNHC 201804
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1750 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area will
    continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the
    south-central Caribbean through the latter part of the week.
    Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse
    to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia this
    morning,
    and again, this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
    Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tKks55QVwmkEJw2nZPFW3DWjt5rFD3mEEnVBLKr0JNH6R_rRi9KuLXEKEPDHEqauwf4e0boc$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to
    01N49W. Scattered showers are noted from 01N to 06N between 16W
    and 28W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends 1031 mb high pressure over Arkansas
    across the Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting moderate to
    locally fresh E winds south of 25N, with 4 to 6 ft seas, and
    gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 25N with 1 to 3 ft
    seas. Relatively warm, moist SE flow over cooler shelf waters
    along the north Texas coast are supporting the potential for sea
    fog this morning. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of
    Campeche near 18N93W to 22N96W. Elsewhere, no significant
    weather is observed.

    For the forecast, the ridge will extend across the northern Gulf
    Through Fri. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan
    Peninsula tonight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
    winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and
    become stationary into Sat night. The western part of the front
    will begin to lift north as a warm front late Sat night through
    Sun, while the rest of the front dissipates as Atlantic high
    pressure builds westward across the area through Sun night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tight gradient due to high pressure north of the area is
    supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern and central
    and winds to gale force continue north of Colombia through mid
    morning. Fresh trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean.
    Seas are 8 to 13 ft over the southwest Caribbean due in part to
    NE to E swell. Seas are reaching 8 ft off Belize and Quintana
    Roo due to the long fetch of fresh NE winds from the Cuban
    coast. 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Regional radar
    suggests scattered showers persist in the trade wind flow across
    the eastern Caribbean.

    For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting
    Fresh to strong winds and building seas over the southeast and
    south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off
    the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds
    are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight.
    Winds and seas diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure
    weakens, although strong winds will persist off Colombia that
    could reach near gale force Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 60W: A cold front reaches from 30N48W to 25N60W, then is
    stationary to the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted
    along the front and scattered moderate north of 28N. Farther
    west, a surface ridge extending west to east along roughly 28N
    is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in
    open waters south of 25N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to
    6 ft seas north of 25N, except 2 to 5 ft north of the northern
    Bahamas and off the northeast Florida coast. No significant
    shower activity is evident.

    For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near 24N65W
    to the Turks and Caicos will dissipate tonight. A new cold front
    will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and
    Bermuda. The main portion of this front will lift to the
    northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment
    to dissipate along 27N by Thu evening. This front will be
    followed by yet another cold front that will move southward
    across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, reach
    from near 31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach, Florida Sat
    night, then begin to weaken as it reaches the far southern
    waters late Sun. High pressure will build over the area in the
    wake of this front.

    Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 27N30W is
    supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 25N
    where seas are 7 to 9 ft in a mix of N swell and shorter period
    wind waves. NW swell is reaching as far south as 30N between 45W
    and 65W, but 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 25N. A
    sharp upper trough reaches from the Canary Islands to near
    09N41W. Upper divergence southeast of the upper trough is
    supporting moderate showers within 480 nm to the southeast of
    the upper trough.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Jan 22 00:01:00 2021
    009
    AXNT20 KNHC 211755
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
    Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds
    over the south-central Caribbean through the next couple of
    days. Local overnight land breeze influences will allow these
    winds to pulse to gale force again tonight along the coast of
    Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and
    Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri night, but will
    be strong enough to support additional gales in this area late
    Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!u-7sRQLFTQxKfr5pQOltRzetHioIk5VF95VQZnh-TilEeE_oDELNBBMaDd7mEF8ETe04Nlcd$
    for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W,
    continuing to 08N17W, and then to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
    from 04N20W to 03N36W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
    Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 06N between
    22W and 30W and off the coast of French Guiana from 05N to 08N
    between 47W and 54W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 15W and 20W.
    Scattered showers are found along the remainder of the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
    from the coast of Texas near 29N96W to the coast of Mexico
    25N98W. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed over
    the northeast Gulf near 27N86W. Moderate southwesterly flow is
    evident over the northwestern Gulf according to the latest
    surface observations. Patchy dense fog remains along the Texas
    coast as a result of moist onshore flow. Farther south, the
    scatterometer pass indicates moderate E winds over the Bay of
    Campeche, between the 1023 mb high pressure and a small trough
    near Veracruz. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf.
    Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas,
    except 3 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Aside from the
    patchy dense fog along the Texas coast, no significant weather
    is observed.

    Looking ahead, the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will
    shift southeast today to the Bahamas. The associated surface
    ridge will move into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a
    cold front moving into the northern Gulf later on Fri. The front
    will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, and then
    dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of
    front over the Carolinas will support increasing SE winds and
    building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun. Strong SE
    winds are possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low
    pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas will
    diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east
    and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas
    through Mon night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for information on the
    Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia.

    Recent scatterometer data shows generally fresh NE winds across
    the western Caribbean, with an area of strong NE to ENE winds
    from the coast of Colombia to 15N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the
    Caribbean, except for 7 to 11 ft in the area under a Gale
    Warning. Moderate trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean.
    No significant precipitation is observed at this time.

    For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
    to support fresh to strong winds over the south central
    Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight
    hours off Colombia through the next several nights.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A southward moving cold front is located from 32N56W to 29N75W.
    Fresh to strong winds are present behind the cold front between
    60W and 67W. Seas in excess 8 ft are noted north of 28N between
    35W and 67W. A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 22N71W
    near the southeast Bahamas. Fresh N winds were recorded by a
    recent scatterometer pass within 90nm north of the stationary
    front west of 60W. Scattered moderate convection is present
    along this frontal boundary between 48W and 59W. In the eastern
    Atlantic, ridging anchored to a 1027 mb high pressure at 29N29W
    is inducing fresh NE winds across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
    Closer to the high pressure center, gentle to moderate winds are
    evident. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a sharp upper
    trough from the Canary Islands to the coast of northeast Brazil
    is supporting scattered showers across the eastern Atlantic east
    of 32W.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front that extends
    to 29N75W will move east of 65W tonight. Another front will move
    into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri
    evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening, then along 23N east
    of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, and finally
    stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by
    Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake
    of this front.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Fri Jan 22 00:01:00 2021
    009
    AXNT20 KNHC 211755
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
    Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds
    over the south-central Caribbean through the next couple of
    days. Local overnight land breeze influences will allow these
    winds to pulse to gale force again tonight along the coast of
    Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and
    Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri night, but will
    be strong enough to support additional gales in this area late
    Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!u-7sRQLFTQxKfr5pQOltRzetHioIk5VF95VQZnh-TilEeE_oDELNBBMaDd7mEF8ETe04Nlcd$
    for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W,
    continuing to 08N17W, and then to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
    from 04N20W to 03N36W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
    Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 06N between
    22W and 30W and off the coast of French Guiana from 05N to 08N
    between 47W and 54W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 15W and 20W.
    Scattered showers are found along the remainder of the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
    from the coast of Texas near 29N96W to the coast of Mexico
    25N98W. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed over
    the northeast Gulf near 27N86W. Moderate southwesterly flow is
    evident over the northwestern Gulf according to the latest
    surface observations. Patchy dense fog remains along the Texas
    coast as a result of moist onshore flow. Farther south, the
    scatterometer pass indicates moderate E winds over the Bay of
    Campeche, between the 1023 mb high pressure and a small trough
    near Veracruz. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf.
    Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas,
    except 3 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Aside from the
    patchy dense fog along the Texas coast, no significant weather
    is observed.

    Looking ahead, the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will
    shift southeast today to the Bahamas. The associated surface
    ridge will move into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a
    cold front moving into the northern Gulf later on Fri. The front
    will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, and then
    dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of
    front over the Carolinas will support increasing SE winds and
    building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun. Strong SE
    winds are possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low
    pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas will
    diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east
    and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas
    through Mon night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for information on the
    Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia.

    Recent scatterometer data shows generally fresh NE winds across
    the western Caribbean, with an area of strong NE to ENE winds
    from the coast of Colombia to 15N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the
    Caribbean, except for 7 to 11 ft in the area under a Gale
    Warning. Moderate trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean.
    No significant precipitation is observed at this time.

    For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
    to support fresh to strong winds over the south central
    Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight
    hours off Colombia through the next several nights.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A southward moving cold front is located from 32N56W to 29N75W.
    Fresh to strong winds are present behind the cold front between
    60W and 67W. Seas in excess 8 ft are noted north of 28N between
    35W and 67W. A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 22N71W
    near the southeast Bahamas. Fresh N winds were recorded by a
    recent scatterometer pass within 90nm north of the stationary
    front west of 60W. Scattered moderate convection is present
    along this frontal boundary between 48W and 59W. In the eastern
    Atlantic, ridging anchored to a 1027 mb high pressure at 29N29W
    is inducing fresh NE winds across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
    Closer to the high pressure center, gentle to moderate winds are
    evident. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a sharp upper
    trough from the Canary Islands to the coast of northeast Brazil
    is supporting scattered showers across the eastern Atlantic east
    of 32W.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front that extends
    to 29N75W will move east of 65W tonight. Another front will move
    into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri
    evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening, then along 23N east
    of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, and finally
    stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by
    Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake
    of this front.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jan 23 00:35:00 2021
    618
    AXNT20 KNHC 221738
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200|UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1710 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area and
    low pressure over northern Colombia will combine for a tight
    pressure gradient offshore of northwest Colombia where winds will
    pulse to gale force during the overnight into the early morning
    hours for the next several days. Seas will build to 6-10 ft
    during the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High
    Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
    website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rSRmK7ZXJT8QPwMMVW9iajf5k9MuZ3uvHpxRYSQZ2k5ecm1StQWXa2JyUHlbVgelJP1qZGYG$
    for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
    to 03N24W. The ITCZ then extends from 03N24W to 04N41W to the
    coast of northern Brazil near 03N51W. An area of scattered
    moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from
    00N to 05N between 15W and 23W. Scattered showers to isolated
    moderate convection persist along the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Onshore flow along the Texas coast is producing patchy
    dense fog that should lift by this afternoon. A surface
    trough extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from
    SW Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico, where an interesting mesoscale
    low is observed on satellite imagery. The remainder of the Gulf
    is under the influence of a receding ridge of high pressure that
    is centered northeast of the Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass
    shows gentle SW winds in the eastern Gulf, with gentle to
    moderate S winds in the western Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are found
    over the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico. Except for the patchy
    fog in the western Gulf, no significant weather is observed
    at this time.

    A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf later today,
    becoming stationary tonight, and dissipating by Sat night.
    High pressure building north of the front over the SE United
    States will support a gradual increase of SE winds and building
    seas across W Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds possible
    in NW Gulf by Sun night. Winds and seas diminish across the
    Gulf Mon as the high shifts farther east with a weak cold
    front moving into NW Gulf Mon afternoon. The front should
    stall over NW and W Gulf on Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for information
    on a Gale Warning in the south central Caribbean off the
    coast of Colombia.

    Elsewhere across the Caribbean, fresh to strong trades are
    noted in the south central Caribbean, with mainly moderate
    to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft across
    the basin outside of the stronger winds near the coast of
    Colombia. Mainly fair conditions are noted on satellite
    imagery with isolated trade wind showers possible.

    The Bermuda High displaced to near the Bahamas will
    continue to support fresh to strong winds over the
    south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force
    during the overnight hours off the coast of Colombia through
    the next several nights. Mainly moderate to fresh trades
    will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong near
    the Gulf of Honduras on Monday and Tuesday. No significant
    cold fronts are expected to reach these waters for at least
    the next several days. N swell will propagate into the
    Tropical N Atlantic waters on Monday and Tuesday.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 60W, a 1019 mb high pressure near 25N72W extends
    a ridge from the Gulf of Mexico, across the Straits of
    Florida and the Bahamas. A cold front extends from
    31N70W to the FL/GA border. Light to gentle winds are
    noted underneath the ridge from 20N to 27N, with moderate
    to locally fresh WNW winds observed north of 27N in
    association with the cold front. Strong winds are noted
    north of 30N between 65W and 71W. NW swell of 7-11 ft
    prevails north of 23N and east of 68W, with 3-6 ft seas
    in mainly E to NE swell elsewhere outside of the Bahamas.
    Seas are 2-4 ft west of the Bahamas.

    East of 60W, a cold front enters our area near 31N48W,
    continuing SW to 27N53W where it becomes stationary to
    25N61W. An area of scattered moderate to strong
    convection is noted north of 25N between 40W and 48W.
    Over the eastern Atlantic, 1029 mb high pressure is
    centered near 32N24W. Moderate to fresh NE flow was
    observed by scatterometer over most of the basin. NW swell
    of 8-14 ft covers the majority of the area north of 24N/25N
    with 6-9 ft seas south of 24N/25N. Scattered moderate
    convection, enhanced by an upper-level trough, is observed
    from the monsoon trough north to 23N between 08W and 23W.

    For the forecast, a cold front will move into the waters
    between Bermuda and NE Florida today, reaching along 28N
    by Sat afternoon, then merging with a reinforcing front
    along 24N east of the Bahamas by Sun afternoon, and finally
    stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic
    by Mon afternoon. A strong Bermuda High will build over
    the area in the wake of this front. A new cold front may
    emerge off of the SE United States coast and move across
    the basin beginning on Tue night.

    $$
    Mahoney/Aguirre
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jan 23 17:13:00 2021
    638
    AXNT20 KNHC 230930
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: 1018 mb high pressure north of Puerto
    Rico and low pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a
    tight pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean. Winds are
    pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early morning hours
    which will continue through the next several days. Seas will build
    to 11-12 ft around sunrise each day. Please read the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
    website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!o-bSCYg01WccsuJ208_dVdnMy45W5ok9Z9yINBhR3YCgtY5ZSzBdxMYRwexmZNFTHDnEmHuC$
    for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa at the Cote
    d'Ivoire and Liberia border near 04N08W to 04N27W. The ITCZ
    extends from 04N27W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated
    strong convection is noted from 05N-07N between 13W-17W, from
    02N-04N between 17W-20W, from 00N-05N between 27W-33W, and from
    04N-05N between 42W-49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 01N-03N between 47W-51W near the coast of northern Brazil.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Patchy to areas of dense fog is noted across portions of the Gulf
    coastal waters early this morning, with the potential for
    visibilities to be reduced to 1 nm or less. This fog should
    diminish by late morning. Otherwise, fair conditions are noted
    across the basin.

    A surface ridge extends from high pressure east of the southern
    Bahamas across the upper Florida Keys and Florida Bay to the
    north-central Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed in the western
    Gulf from 29N93W to 26N96W to 21N97W. A stationary front extends
    from northern Florida to across the northern coastal waters.
    Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly light to gentle
    anticyclonic winds under the ridging and gentle to moderate NE
    winds behind the front, with N-NE moderate winds west of the
    Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less across the basin
    per recent buoy observations and altimeter data.

    The stationary front will retreat northward as a warm front
    through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will rebuild
    over the southeast U.S.A. with increasing southerly return flow
    and building seas Sun into early next week. The ridge will weaken
    late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western Gulf,
    stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced and
    progress eastward across the basin through the remainder of the
    week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
    ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean northwest of
    the coast of Colombia.

    Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail, except
    moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft or less
    in the northwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Isolated
    tradewind showers are possible with no significant convection
    noted across the basin, however deep convection is occurring over
    portions of central to northwest Colombia and far eastern Panama.

    Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next
    several days outside of the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to
    fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras on Mon through Wed. N
    swell will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters from
    Mon night through Thu. A cold front may approach the Yucatan
    Channel from the northwest Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 55W, 1018 mb high pressure is noted east of the southern
    Bahamas and Turks and Caicos near 23N66W with a ridge axis
    extending west-northwest toward the upper Florida Keys. A cold
    front extends from 32N58W to 28N70W to near Jacksonville, Florida.
    Scattered showers are possible near the front with fair conditions
    elsewhere. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of 27N
    and east of the front, with mainly gentle to moderate winds
    elsewhere. A set of large northerly swell with seas of 7-11 ft
    associated with the frontal system extend across the waters north
    of 27N and east of 70W, with 3-6 ft seas noted elsewhere outside
    of the Bahamas, except 4-7 ft east of 70W.

    The cold front will reach along 26N by this evening, while a
    reinforcing cold front merges with it along 25N by Sun morning.
    The merged front will stall along 20N off the coast of the
    Dominican Republic by Mon afternoon, and then dissipate on Tue.
    A new cold front will move across the northern waters Tue night
    shifting south while weakening through early Thu. Another cold
    front may move off the southeast U.S.A coast by Thu afternoon
    while parent low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the area
    through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
    are possible with this system, with storm force to near hurricane
    force winds possible north of 32N.

    East of 55W, a cold front extends from 1010 mb low pressure north
    of the area near 37N39W through 32N40W to 26N44W to 20N59W.
    Isolated to scattered showers are possible near the front, with
    scattered moderate convection noted north of 27N between the front
    and 37W. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of 27N
    within 120-180 nm ahead of the front, while northerly swell of
    7-11 ft covers the waters north of 20N, except 11-14 ft north of
    27N between 37W-50W. A 1027 mb high pressure area is centered
    northwest of the Canary Islands near 32N20W with a ridge axis
    reaching from the high west-southwest through 27N35W to 23N55W.
    Moderate to fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N, with
    gentle to moderate trades found near the ridge. Seas of 6-9 ft in
    mainly fresh trade wind swell dominate the open waters of the
    tropical Atlantic.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 24 02:03:00 2021
    360
    AXNT20 KNHC 232210 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    2210 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021

    Updated Gulf of Mexico section

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2145 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of a 1019 mb high center
    over the Atlantic near 23N69W north of Puerto Rico and low
    pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a tight pressure
    gradient in the south-central Caribbean. This will again lead to
    northeast to east winds to pulse to gale force tonight and into
    early on Sun along and near the coast of Colombia. This favorable
    synoptic pattern setup will continue to promote this pulsing of
    winds to gale force well into next week. Wave heights generated by
    these winds are forecast to be in the range of 8-12 ft, mainly
    around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
    Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rQ3xcWfhenzGbkp5uKcrfLSfYGCgUxIBTzRYigqEndJGLCxG9eqT3fVyF1EW-QjUYfW71TA_$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    A rather short monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of
    Africa at the Cote d'Ivoire and Liberia border near 04N08W to
    05N15W, where morning ASCAT data indicates that it transitions
    to the ITCZ to 03N29W to 03N38W and to near 03N47W. Scattered
    moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm
    north of the ITCZ between 26W-31W. Scattered moderate convection
    is within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 16W-19W and
    between 31W-35W. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of the
    monsoon trough between 13W-19W and between 31W-35W. Other
    scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm either side of a
    line from 04N45W to near the coast of northern Brazil at 04N51W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...Updated

    As of 15Z, a stationary front extends from north-central Florida
    to 29N90W and to inland Texas near Corpus Christi. A far western
    Gulf trough extends from just south of the stationary front near
    28N94W to 26N96W and to 23N97W. As of 15Z, a 1020 mb high is
    centered over the far southeastern Gulf at 25N82W. High pressure
    is present across the rest of the area, with stronger high
    pressure analyzed over far NE Gulf. Latest buoy data indicates
    light to gentle anticyclonic wind speeds south of the
    aforementioned stationary front due to the 1020 mb high center.
    The latest buoy data along with overnight ASCAT confirmed that
    gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are north of the
    aforementioned frontal boundary. Satellite imagery shows
    overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible patches of
    mainly light rain and scattered light showers to be confined
    along and within 120 nm north of the frontal boundary. Patches
    of stratus-type clouds and fog are advecting northward over the
    far western Gulf from 21N-25N and between 93W-97W.

    The stationary front will begin to lift northward as a warm
    front from this evening through Sun. Patchy to widespread areas
    of dense fog, with visibilities reduced to 1 nm or less are
    likely to develop again during the overnight hours and into Sun
    morning over the Gulf coastal plains as well as over and along
    the Florida west coast north of about Naples. High pressure will
    build over the southeastern United States, with increasing
    southerly return flow and building seas Sun through Mon. The
    high pressure will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves
    into the western Gulf and becomes stationary by early Tue. The
    front will then get reinforced and progress eastward across the
    basin through Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
    ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean northwest of
    the coast of Colombia.

    Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail, except
    moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft
    or less in the northwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.
    Satellite imagery reveals patches of low-level clouds moving
    westward in the trade wind flow. Isolated showers are possible
    with some of these clouds. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are over southern Panama, but appear to be weakening
    during the past few hours. Otherwise, no significant convection
    is noted over the Caribbean waters, over the islands and nearby
    land areas.

    Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next
    several days outside of the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to
    fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras on Mon through Wed.
    A north well will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic
    waters from Mon night through Thu. A cold front is likely to
    enter the Yucatan Channel from the northwest Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 55W, a 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed east of
    the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos near 23N69W, with a
    ridge axis extending west-northwestward to a 1020 mb high center
    that is over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico at 25N82W. A cold
    front extends along a position from near 32N58W to 28N70W and to
    inland Florida near Daytona Beach. Satellite imagery shows broken
    to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with embedded patches of
    rain and possible scattered showers along and north of the front
    to near 31N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are occurring north
    of 27N and east of the front, with mainly gentle to moderate winds
    elsewhere. A set of large northerly swell with seas of 8-11 ft
    associated with the frontal system extend across the waters north
    of 27N and east of 70W, with 3-6 ft seas noted elsewhere outside
    of the Bahamas, except 4-7 ft east of 70W.

    The cold front will reach along 26N by this evening, while a
    reinforcing cold front merges with it along 25N by Sun morning.
    The merged front will stall along 21N north of the coast of the
    Dominican Republic by Mon afternoon and dissipate on Tue. A new
    cold front will move across the northern waters Tue night shifting
    south while weakening through early Thu. Another stronger cold
    front may move off the southeast United States coast by Thu
    afternoon while parent low pressure rapidly intensifies north of
    the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very
    large seas are possible with this system, with storm force to near
    hurricane force winds possible north of 32N.

    East of 55W, a cold front extends from a 1009 mb low north of the
    area near 38N38W through 32N38W and to 28N40W, where it becomes a
    weakening stationary front to 27N45W and to near 25N50W. An
    upper-level disturbance diving southeastward is behind the front
    near 30N47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of this
    disturbance. Scattered showers are possible near and along the
    front north of 28N, while isolated showers are possible along and
    near the stationary front. Fresh to strong south winds are within
    150 nm east of the front north of about 28N, while northerly
    swell of 7-11 ft covers the waters north of 20N, except 11-14 ft
    north of 27N between 37W-50W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is
    centered north of the Canary Islands near 32N18W with a ridge
    axis reaching from the high west-southwestward through 26N37W
    and to near 22N53W. Moderate to fresh trades cover the waters
    south of 20N, with gentle to moderate trades found near the
    ridge. Seas of 6-9 ft in mainly fresh trade wind swell dominate
    the open waters of the tropical Atlantic.

    $$
    Aguirre
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 24 16:57:00 2021
    878
    AXNT20 KNHC 241018
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure due north of the Caribbean
    Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
    support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the
    coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights
    generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13
    ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
    website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oY1er-CuBXn8Wxa0FESUZ0Owc6TpSNYkySOD5SLT1R6-npaMrMND28eDlEG-hmL4pOdb_5ep$
    for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
    05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to
    04N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
    between 07W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 20W-43W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal waters.
    This front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front today.
    Dense fog, reducing visibility to less than one mile, is expected
    N of the boundary, particularly from Lake Charles, Louisiana to
    Brownsville, Texas. Moderate easterly winds are noted N of the
    front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough is near the W
    coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing mainly moderate winds.
    Light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf
    waters. High clouds are moving from central Mexico into the Gulf
    region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft.

    Building high pressure over the SE U.S. will bring increasing
    southerly return flow and building seas over the western Gulf
    today and Mon. The ridge will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front
    moves into the western Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front
    will then get reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the
    basin through Thu night. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
    in the wake of the front on Wed, with gale conditions possible in
    the Veracruz area Wed night into Thu. Seas are forecast to build
    up to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
    early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
    the Special Features section above for details.

    Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing
    to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night with
    seas building to 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
    expected in the Windward passage tonight, and south of Dominican
    Republic tonight through Mon night. Shallow moisture embedded in
    the trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated
    to scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with
    possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting
    most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua.

    Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with
    additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into
    Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North
    Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu night.

    A cold front currently located along 26N W of 60W with continue to
    move southward, approaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico
    and Hispaniola by Mon night. This front could bring an increase
    in the likelihood of rain over these islands on Tue. Another cold
    front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night followed
    by fresh to strong northerly winds.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends across the central and Western Atlantic from
    31N48W to 26N65W to near West Palm Beach, FL. Doppler radar shows
    a few showers associated with the front between the NW Bahamas
    and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move
    southward reaching 25N by Sun morning, 22N-23N by Sun night, and
    21N by Mon morning. It will bring a slight chance of showers to
    South Florida tonight. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N47W to
    23N70W. Scattered showers are ahead of the trough N of 26N.

    A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of
    27N and east of 70W today and Mon, bringing strong to near gale
    force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between
    55W-65W. large northerly swell will follow the front, building
    seas to 15-18 ft across the central Atlantic near 31N by tonight.
    Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central
    Florida Mon into Tue.

    A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
    the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
    through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
    are likely with this system.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
    of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb located just SE
    of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the
    southern periphery of the ridge.

    $$
    GR
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Feb 16 23:43:00 2021
    315
    AXNT20 KNHC 161745
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1720 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
    high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over
    northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing
    for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal
    gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after
    sunrise. Seas will build to around 10-13 ft with strongest winds.
    Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
    Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!twJ_GGCuT4qpyQIeCdE0gpxUNONC6nQ25_8drMDkliqXZFOzs94CKLbTpC3TKpf6WJ9aInUi$
    for further
    Details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 02N31W
    to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection
    is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N-08N between 05W-
    26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from
    05S-05N between 27W-46W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front continues to press southward across the southeast
    Gulf, stretching from southwest Florida near 26N82W to the
    northeast Yucatan near 21N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
    are noted within 60 nm of the front. High pressure continues to
    build across the rest of the Gulf behind the cold front. Gentle to
    moderate winds are noted across the basin with seas 3-6 ft. Seas
    are up to 8-9 ft near the front in the eastern Gulf.

    Winds will diminish this afternoon behind the cold front as it
    reaches the far southeastern Gulf and stalls. The front will lift
    back north as a warm from late tonight through Wed night. Fresh to
    strong southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf tonight
    as a low pressure system takes shape along the central Texas
    coast. This low pressure system will track east- northeastward
    across the NW Gulf on Wed dragging a strong cold front across the
    western Gulf. This front is expected to reach from near
    Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu
    afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf Fri afternoon. Gale
    conditions will be possible behind this front off Veracruz on Fri,
    while fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected over
    the eastern Gulf and over the southern half of the central Gulf.
    Fresh to strong northerly winds will be confined to the eastern
    Gulf south of 27N Fri through Sat night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning
    in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast
    of Colombia.

    Scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Yucatan Passage
    ahead of the cold front approaching the region. Showers are also
    moving across the Gulf of Honduras. Farther south, showers are
    noted off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, quick
    moving showers are moving throughout the central and eastern
    Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trade
    winds in the eastern and central Caribbean with gentle winds in
    the western Caribbean. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 10 ft
    north of Colombia.

    High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
    trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through
    Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force at night
    through mid week. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of
    Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front
    approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected
    to move across western Caribbean Fri through Sat, then becomes
    stationary on Sat night. Strong N winds will follow the front.
    Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N
    Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside through Sat
    night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front stretches off the Florida coast from 31N79W to the
    central Florida coast near 28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is
    noted north of the Bahamas to the south Florida coast from
    31N76W to 25N80W. Fresh westerly winds are noted behind the
    front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Seas
    range 6-9 ft. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from a
    1018 mb low near 32N39W to 27N41W. Moderate winds are noted near
    this feature. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from
    28N35W to 22N37W. Light to gentle winds are noted throughout the
    region with seas 6-10 ft. A trough is located west of the Canary
    Islands from 30N19W to 23N22W.

    The cold front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W
    to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front
    Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
    over the western waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front
    moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move east of
    Florida early on Fri, extend from near 31N71W to the central
    Bahamas and to central Cuba early Fri evening, and from 28N65W
    to near the Windward Passage Sat. Fresh to strong northerly
    winds will follow this front. Fresh to strong east winds will
    expand westward across the southern waters east of 76W from Wed
    afternoon through Thu night.

    $$
    AReinhart
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 18 00:14:00 2021
    927
    AXNT20 KNHC 171736
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1800 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure system of 1008 mb has
    developed over the NW Gulf of Mexico. The attendant cold front
    extends from the low center to the coast of Mexico just N of
    Tampico, Mexico. A stationary front stretches from South Florida
    to the low pressure. The stationary front will lift north as a
    warm front through tonight. At the same time, the new cold front
    will move eastward reaching from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz,
    Mexico tonight. Then, the front will stall there on Thu. Reinforcing
    cold air will allow the front to move again across the Gulf waters
    late Thu and Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Fresh to strong
    winds will follow the front, reaching gale force over the SW Gulf
    Thu night and Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 12-14 ft with
    the strongest winds.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Near gale force winds are noted within
    about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia this morning based on recent satellite-derived wind data. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low
    will support strong to minimal gale force winds near the coast of
    Colombia tonight. These conditions are possible again Sun night.

    Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!qhwreczbY75RO4_llkXdndSvq1Tr_-ZmKBVn6ZSawa5ltKCUiV0japh-q-MgAhp5Aws1BX8t$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from
    04N25W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    convection is noted from 01N-07N between 06W-17W. Scattered
    moderate convection is S of the ITCZ W of 39W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning has been issued for the SW Gulf of Mexico near the
    Veracruz area. Please, see the Special Features section for more
    details. Buoys across the northern Gulf are reporting fresh to
    strong E to SE winds with areas of fog. A recent altimeter pass
    indicates seas to 9 ft near the low pressure center located over
    the NW Gulf.

    Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, dominates much of the
    Gulf region, particularly N of 25N and W of 94W where the frontal boundaries/low pressure are. A few showers are also noted over
    the SE Gulf. Thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra
    Madre Mountains in Mexico.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of near gale
    force winds within about 90 nm of the cost of Colombia. with
    fresh to strong trade winds over the remainder of the central
    Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean.

    Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to
    move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing
    showers. Showers carried by fresh NE winds are now affecting
    Puerto Rico and regional waters, and parts of Dominican Republic.

    High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
    strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
    through Fri night. Gale force winds are possible tonight and Sun
    night off Colombia. A Gale warning in now in effect. Please, see
    the Special Features section for more details.

    Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras
    will increase to strong to near gale force tonight through Thu
    morning as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front
    will move across the western Caribbean Fri evening into Sat,
    reaching front central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then
    stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
    follow the front. Long period north swell combined with NE wind-
    waves will produce sea heights of 7-10 ft over tropical N Atlantic
    waters through Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extend from 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee,
    Florida. Scattered showers are near the frontal boundary, forecast
    to lift northward as a warm front through tonight. Fresh to strong
    southerly winds will develop east of Florida on Thu as another
    cold front moves across the NE Gulf of Mexico. The front will
    enter the Atlantic Ocean just E of NE Florida by early Fri
    morning, and extend from 31N74W to South Florida by Fri evening
    bringing some shower activity, and cooler temperatures. Then, the
    front will reach from 31N68W to central Cuba by Sat morning, and
    from 31N60W to central Cuba by Sat night. On Sat, expected fresh
    to strong N to NE winds behind the front as a 1035 mb high pressure
    settles over the Carolinas. The front is forecast to weaken over
    the SW N Atlantic on Sun.

    Currently, mainly fresh NE-E winds are observed over the NE Caribbean
    and the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles, particularly from
    12N-22N between 48W-67W. These winds were sampled by recent scatterometer
    data.

    Elsewhere across the Atlantic forecast waters, high pressure of 1028
    mb located near 31N58W will shift eastward over the next several days
    as the aforementioned cold front moves E of Florida.

    $$
    GR
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 18 23:47:00 2021
    460
    AXNT20 KNHC 181829
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1750 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure system
    located Near the Georgia/Alabama border north of Tallahassee,
    Florida. A Cold front extends southwest to 18N94W in the Bay of
    Campeche. The altimeter data and buoy observations are showing
    mainly fresh northerly winds west of the front, with fresh to
    strong north winds in the waters near Galveston Texas. Seas are in
    the 5-8 ft range on either side of the frontal boundary. The cold
    front will continue to move eastward today. Strong high pressure
    associated with reinforcing cold air will tighten the pressure
    gradient west of the front later today. Strong northerly winds
    will reach gale force in the Veracruz region of the SW Gulf
    tonight and Fri. Seas will build to 10-16 ft near the highest
    winds.

    Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tuhZnoNe-eljPAMkO3C1ooja9IqjqypQtbAupR3UDVZ2cg_s9dxDPeQFXDIW3O2Bh1YTHgvf$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 06N11W to
    03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N42W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted south of the boundary from 01S-04N
    between 07W-25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the
    Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for
    more details.

    Widespread stratocumulus clouds blanket the waters west of the
    front, and a line of moderate to strong convection has developed
    north of 27N ahead of the front in the north-central Gulf. This
    line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist through
    today as the front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

    A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near
    Veracruz, Mexico. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will
    induce gale force northerly winds near Tampico, and in the
    Veracruz region tonight into Fri. Gales are also expected in the
    Bay of Campeche on Fri, with seas building to 14-16 ft. The
    front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
    Campeche tonight, from Ft. Myers, Florida to NE Yucatan
    peninsula on Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Moderate to
    fresh E to SE winds are expected across the Gulf Sun and Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted over the central
    Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern
    Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded within the low level wind
    flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated
    passing trade wind showers.

    High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
    strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
    through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
    NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today as a cold front
    approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach the NW
    Caribbean by Fri evening, and extend from central Cuba to the
    Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh
    to strong north winds will follow the front.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Altimeter data shows a large area of fresh to locally strong
    easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic waters, and buoy
    observations indicate winds are increasing north of the Bahamas
    and veering to the south. Broad anticyclonic wind flow
    associated with a 1029 mb high centered near 30N58W prevails
    across the west-central Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted
    south of 25N between 60W and 70W.

    Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of Florida
    later today through Fri as a cold front moves into the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N79W to central
    Florida on Fri, from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas into western
    Cuba Fri night, from 31N67W to central Cuba on Sat, then stall
    and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba on Sun. A band of showers
    and thunderstorms will accompany the front. High pressure
    north of the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
    across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon.

    $$ Torres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Feb 20 02:36:00 2021
    397
    AXNT20 KNHC 191736
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds are
    occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz in
    association with reinforcing cold air behind a cold front. An
    altimeter pass from 19/1114 UTC showed seas of 16 to 17 ft from
    21N-23N between 94.5W-96W. NOAA buoy 42055 (22.1N 93.9W) reported
    significant wave heights of 16 ft and winds 33 kt gusting to 39
    kt this morning around 1300 UTC. The gales are expected to end
    early this afternoon as high pressure builds over the basin. Seas
    will subside this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
    Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tEAFOvWdUINUpMbw7VW1h9doDmU2rLvwC9z8TCeDMewEgh3M5nxwTERQ-xpRg6vGbQJrR2ma$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the border of Sierra Leone and
    Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
    01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N
    between 14W-21W, from 04S-00N between 22W-28W and from 00N-06N
    between 26W-34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    is evident from 01S-05N between 42W-48W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from Clearwater Florida near 28N83W to the
    Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W to N Guatemala near 17N90W. NWS
    Doppler Radar and GOES-16 satellite imagery show scattered
    moderate showers and isolated tstorms within 45 nm either side of
    the cold front, mainly north of 23N and east of 88W, including
    portions of northern Florida. Gale force N winds are occurring
    well behind the front offshore of Veracruz. See the Special
    Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A recent
    ASCAT pass from around 19/1500 UTC shows near gale force N winds
    are elsewhere behind the front south of 24N and west of 89W.
    Strong winds cover most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the
    front, although winds off the Texas coast have diminished to
    moderate due to a 1034 mb high pressure moving in over central
    Texas.

    Gale force winds will end offshore Veracruz by early afternoon.
    The cold front will continue moving southeastward, and exit the
    basin by this evening. High pressure will be in control of the
    Gulf into Sunday. The next cold front will move into the
    northwest Gulf Sunday night into Monday morning, and move across
    the basin through Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Fresh to strong trade winds are noted over the eastern and
    central Caribbean as shown by a recent ASCAT pass as well as ship
    and buoy observations, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE
    winds are north of Honduras, with moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
    seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. No significant
    shower or tstorm activity is noted other than a few fast-moving
    trade-wind showers across the eastern Caribbean.

    A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move through the Yucatan
    Channel and into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will
    stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat, then
    dissipate through Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the
    front north of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds Sun
    night, and overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of
    Colombia Sun night through Tue night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front is from 32N79W to 30N81W. A cold front is from
    30N81W to St. Augustine Florida to Clearwater Florida. Scattered
    showers are within 75 nm NW of the front. Scattered showers and
    isolated tstorms are within 30 nm SE of the front. A recent ASCAT
    pass shows that fresh to locally strong S winds precede the front
    north of 28N. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft in the western
    Atlantic to the east and northeast of the Bahamas. Surface
    ridging extends from a 1027 mb high near 29N58W to the coast of
    central Cuba near 22N78W. A surface ridge also extends E from the
    high to 25N38W to a 1022 mb high near 25N26W to 31N11W. Gentle
    winds are near the ridge axis, except for moderate winds in the
    Bahamas. Fresh to strong trade winds are from 07N-24N between
    46W-70W, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. A cold front enters the area
    north of the ridge axis in the east-central Atlantic from 32N29N
    to 28N38W, with a dissipating cold front from 28N38W to 32N51W.
    Fresh to strong W winds are from 29N-32N between 20W-38W.
    Northerly swell is propagating into the waters north of 27N, east
    of 45W, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft by this evening.

    For the forecast, the front off Florida will become entirely a
    cold front this afternoon and move eastward, reaching from
    Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba by late Sat and
    from 32N50W to 24N65W to central Cuba late Sun. The SW portion of
    the front will stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba late
    Sun. Active showers and tstorms will continue to accompany the
    front. High pressure following the front will support fresh to
    strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sat night
    through Mon. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast
    Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
    Tue night.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Feb 20 15:43:00 2021
    567
    AXNT20 KNHC 201017
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 07N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
    05N20W to 01S27W to 01S35W. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is noted from 01N-04N between 10W-20W, and from 03S-03N
    between 25W-35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure is building across the northern Gulf in the wake of
    a cold front that moved through the Gulf of Mexico earlier. Fresh
    to strong north winds are still ongoing over the southern Gulf,
    with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate north winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
    noted over the northwest Gulf, with gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
    seas in the northwest Gulf. Drier air is moving into the basin and
    no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed.

    Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the high pressure
    will build across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the
    Carolinas. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
    early Mon morning, and move across the basin through Tue. Looking
    ahead, a third front may approach the northwest Gulf by Wed night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front reaches from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of
    Honduras. Recent buoy and earlier scatterometer satellite data
    indicated 20 to 30 kt winds west of the front, with seas
    estimated to be 6 to 9 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
    are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong
    trade winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean, with 6 to
    9 ft seas. Winds are a little stronger off the coast of northeast
    Colombia where a recent ship observation confirmed 30 kt winds.
    Seas off the coast of Colombia are estimated to be as high as 11
    ft. Moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern
    Caribbean. A few showers are evident over the northwest Gulf near
    the front, and across the southeast Caribbean.

    For the forecast, the front will move little then stall from
    central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras today, before dissipating
    Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the
    area will support fresh to strong NE winds east of 80W into Sun,
    fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, and
    overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night
    through mid week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 65W, a cold front passes through 32N73W through the
    northern Bahamas Island to central Cuba. Recent observations
    indicate fresh to strong N winds and seas to 8 ft west of the
    front. Observations from buoy 41048 near 32N69.5W provides
    evidence that fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front and 6 to
    9 ft seas north of 28N. A surface ridge extending along 25N is
    supporting moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft seas farther south,
    except for fresh E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas off the coast of
    Hispaniola.

    For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeast then
    will stall and weaken along roughly 23N across the central
    Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the front will
    support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic
    tonight through Mon morning. The next front will move off the NE
    Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of
    Florida by mid week. Strong to near-gale force SW winds and
    building seas are likely ahead of the front north of 28N Tue and
    Tue night.

    Elsewhere farther east, 1026 mb high pressure is centered near
    28N50W. A cold front extends from near the Canary Islands to
    26N35W. The high pressure is supporting fresh trade winds and 6 to
    9 ft seas farther south into the tropical waters west of 40W.
    Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 12 ft seas with NW swell accompany
    the front north of 25N and west of 40W. Moderate NE winds and 5 to
    7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 21 02:08:00 2021
    623
    AXNT20 KNHC 201811
    TWDAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    1805 UTC SAT FEB 20 2021

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
    GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
    AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
    EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
    IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

    BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
    1650 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG HIGH
    PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
    NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
    COLOMBIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. GALES WILL RETURN AGAIN DURING THE
    OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID-WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH
    SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.


    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
    08N13W TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO 02N30W TO
    01S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH
    OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N- 08N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
    LIBERIA NEAR 10W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
    00N-06N BETWEEN 17W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
    OCCURRING WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W TO THE NORTHWEST
    COAST OF BRAZIL.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE
    WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
    YESTERDAY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1500 UTC REVEALS FRESH TO STRONG N
    WINDS ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS. OVER
    THE WESTERN GULF, WINDS TRANSITION FROM NE-E BECOMING MODERATE
    WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR THE
    BAY OF CAMPECHE, WINDS MAY BE STRONGER DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
    GRADIENT.

    WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
    WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
    THROUGH LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
    EARLY MON MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. LOOKING
    AHEAD, A THIRD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST GULF BY WED
    NIGHT.

    CARIBBEAN SEA
    PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
    WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
    COAST OF COLOMBIA.

    AS OF 1500 UTC: THE COLD FRONT REACHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL CUBA TO
    THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1400
    UTC INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT, WITHIN THE
    GULF OF HONDURAS, WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6 TO 9 FT. HEAVY SHOWERS
    ARE INDICATED TO BE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
    ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT IN THE
    YUCATAN CHANNEL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
    CARIBBEAN NEAR THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS
    FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN, BECOMING STRONG TO NEAR
    GALE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO COLOMBIA. A SHIP OFFSHORE OF NE
    COLOMBIA NEAR 13N76W REPORTED 30 KT WINDS, AND A BUOY OBSERVATION
    FROM CLOSE BY ESTIMATED SEAS TO BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT.

    FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
    REST OF TODAY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
    THE AREA BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
    STRONG NE WINDS EAST OF 80W INTO SUN, WITH OVERNIGHT PULSES TO GALE
    FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    WEST OF 65W, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W THROUGH THE
    NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
    STATIONARY. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH N-NW WINDS
    AND SEAS TO 8 FT WEST OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS
    FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 26N.
    SHOWERS ARE ONGOING WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED
    SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY RANGE
    FROM 6-9 FT.

    FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
    TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN
    ALONG ROUGHLY 23N ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE MON. HIGH
    PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
    WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE
    NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, REACHING
    FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR-
    GALE FORCE SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
    NORTH OF 28N TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

    FARTHER EAST, 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N43W.
    THE HIGH IS KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL
    ATLANTIC, ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TRADES TO OCCUR ABOVE
    20N WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-7 FT. SOUTH OF 20N, WINDS BECOME
    FRESH WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF 40W.
    ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
    25N32W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH
    OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 15 FT SEAS WITH NW SWELL
    ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 40W.

    $$
    MORA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 21 16:18:00 2021
    346
    AXNT20 KNHC 210907
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure
    building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure
    found over northern Colombia will support pulses gale- force
    northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of
    Colombia beginning tonight and continuing through the middle of
    week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
    are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please
    read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National
    Hurricane Center at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pU9wNKdgOcxyVJFUEz23BFOASYnFcL0NmTbyBnIFjI2A2KMKRXj1YB0dOS9i7OTszpA0Qyf5$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
    Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W
    to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is noted from 01N-06N between 19W-31W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    The ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure over Virginia to the
    southwest Gulf. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer
    satellite data indicated moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the
    eastern half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh E-SE winds over
    the northwest Gulf, with gentle to moderate E winds in the
    southwest Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to
    5 ft over the western Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm
    activity is observed.

    As for the forecast: The ridge extending from 1036 mb high
    pressure over Virginia to the southwest Gulf will shift east today
    and tonight ahead of cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf
    early Mon morning. The front will stall across the southern Gulf
    late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking
    ahead, a third front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu
    morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico, Mexico Thu
    night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front extends from central Cuba through Roatan to
    central Honduras. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
    over the northwest Caribbean near the front, mainly off Belize and
    the coast of western Honduras. Recent buoy and scatterometer
    satellite data indicate moderate to fresh winds west of the front
    and in the lee of Cuba. The buoy data also indicates seas are
    likely 5 to 8 ft west of the front. The same scatterometer swath
    indicates fresh to strong winds off Colombia, where seas are
    likely 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere
    over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas.
    Regional radar indicates scattered showers in the trade wind flow
    in the Atlantic waters east of the Windward Island, moving mainly
    toward Martinique and Dominica, with isolated showers elsewhere
    the northern Windward Islands and and the southern Leeward
    Islands.

    As for the forecast: The stationary front from central Cuba to
    central Honduras will dissipate later today. High pressure north
    of the area building in the wake of the front will support fresh
    NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba
    tonight into Mon. The pattern will also support overnight pulses
    to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night through mid
    week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N60W southwestward to the central
    Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent buoy observations and earlier
    scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds west
    of the front. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 10 ft in open waters
    in this area. Scatterometer data also indicates fresh SW winds
    within 120 nm east of the front, north of 29N.

    Farther east, a ridge is analyzed east of the front, from 1024 mb
    high pressure near 26N43W westward along 25N to 65W, supporting
    moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic waters
    south of 20N, and mainly gentle winds north of 20N. NW swell is
    supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft north of 20N and east of 40W. N
    swell of 6 to 9 ft is noted S of 15N and west of 35W 4 to 6 ft are
    noted elsewhere.

    As for the forecast west of 65W: The cold front will continue to
    move southeast, then stall and weaken along roughly 23N across
    the central Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the
    front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
    western Atlantic through Mon morning. The next front will move off
    the NE Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the
    Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to near- gale force SW
    winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of
    29N early Tue and Tue night.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Feb 22 02:09:00 2021
    444
    AXNT20 KNHC 211808
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure
    building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure
    found over northern Colombia will support pulses of gale- force
    northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of
    Colombia beginning tonight and continuing through the middle of
    week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
    are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds.
    Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
    National Hurricane Center at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vCjPj4V6U6D_T92Qie4OpHUD8P27DxVmmUXv8K8VSFP7uqWxgAUtYsdJJZIuEeNtobgAAza3$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
    near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N31W
    to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted south of the ITCZ between
    20W-25W. Similar convection is noted from 00N-05N between 32W-
    50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Ridging continues to dominate the Gulf region anchored by a 1038
    mb high located over Virginia. The latest scatterometer data
    reveals moderate to fresh return flow over most of the basin,
    with gentle to moderate E winds in the southwest Gulf. Seas are
    4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to5 ft over the western
    Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
    observed.

    As for the forecast: The high pressure center will shift east
    through tonight ahead of a cold front expected to move into the
    NW Gulf early Mon morning. The new front will stall across the
    southern Gulf late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through
    Wed. Looking ahead, a third front will move into the northwest
    Gulf Thu morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico,
    Mexico Thu night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
    Gale Warning for pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of
    Colombia.

    As of 1500 UTC: The stationary front extending from Cuba to
    the Gulf of Honduras has dissipated in the Caribbean Sea. A
    low pressure center of 1019 mb has formed along a surface
    trough in the Gulf of Honduras. This small area of convergent
    low-level flow is supporting the continuation of cloudiness,
    revealed in the latest visible satellite imagery, as well as
    scattered to isolated showers over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
    in this region range from 6 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, fresh NE
    winds are noted in the northwest and central Caribbean, with
    fresh trades over the eastern portion of the basin. Seas are
    5 to 7 ft. High pressure north of the area is allowing dry
    conditions to prevail, aside from scattered showers embedded
    in the trade wind flow in the eastern Caribbean near the
    Windward Islands.

    As for the forecast: High pressure north of the area building
    in the wake of the front will support fresh NE winds east of
    80W through this morning, and across the Windward Passage and
    in the lee of Cuba this evening through Mon. The pattern will
    also support the overnight pulses to gale force off the coast
    of Colombia tonight through mid-week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N55W southwestward to 25N72W
    where the boundary transitions to stationary and continues
    to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent scatterometer
    data indicates fresh to strong northerly winds west of the
    front, becoming northeasterly west of 70W. Seas are estimated
    to be 7 to 10 ft in open waters in this area, reaching 11 ft
    near the north-central Bahamas. Scatterometer data also
    indicates fresh to strong SW winds within 120 nm east of the
    front, north of 29N. Scattered showers may still be along
    and within 100 nm of the front.

    Farther east, a 1023 mb high is centered near 27N40W keeping
    dry conditions in place for the rest of the basin. Fresh to
    locally strong trade winds are across the tropical Atlantic
    waters south of 20N, and mainly gentle winds north of 20N.
    Seas are generally 6 to 12 ft north of 20N and east of 50W.
    Seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted S of 15N and west of 35W, with
    4 to 6 ft seas noted elsewhere.

    As for the forecast west of 65W: The cold front will move
    SE across the open Atlantic into Mon, then stall and weaken
    along roughly 23N across the central Bahamas through late Mon.
    High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong
    NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through Mon morning.
    The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night,
    reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week.
    Strong to near-gale force SW winds and building seas are
    expected ahead of the front north of 29N early Tue and Tue
    night.


    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Feb 23 02:38:00 2021
    345
    AXNT20 KNHC 222211
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to locally strong winds off the
    coast of Colombia will pulse to gale force off the coast of
    Colombia during the overnight hours this week. Sea are forecast
    to build to 12 ft during the period of strongest winds.

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
    the Florida coast by this evening. The front will reach from
    near Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Tue. Fresh to
    strong S-SW winds are expected north of 27N between the front and
    70W. Within this area, winds will increase to minimal gale-
    force just ahead of the front, particularly from 29N-31N between
    74W-76W. The front will continue to push eastward on Tue, with
    the winds diminishing below gale- force by Tue night. Seas will
    build to 8- 11 ft with the strongest winds.

    Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
    National Hurricane Center at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uQfeB9WRTCUSEaugO8OHuRnxqfECXBdhyogEKT1-hpm1TshXu92OLzH4BKveIrbJqhZUZwOh$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
    continues from 05N120W to 04N31W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 25W and 44W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to near the
    Texas-Mexico border. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the
    front, with light to gentle winds east of the front. Seas are in
    the 3-5 ft range across the Gulf waters.

    The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to south of
    Brownsville, Texas by early Tue. The front will stall along 25N
    by Tue night, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking
    ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu
    night, with areas of sea fog possible over the northwest Gulf by
    the end of the week. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
    northerly winds are expected in the SW gulf tonight.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters off the coast of
    Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.

    Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle
    to moderate winds are in the western Caribbean. Seas are in the
    8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern
    Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean.

    Moderate to fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and in
    the lee of Cuba will diminish this evening as high pressure north
    of the area shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh winds in these
    regions will resume Wed night and pulse to fresh to strong again,
    Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds in the central and
    portions of the SW Caribbean will continue through Sat night with
    pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia during the
    overnight hours.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See
    the Special Features section for details.

    A cold front extends from 32N38W to 25N58W, then continues
    westward as a stationary front to the northern Bahamas. High
    pressure is building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong
    winds are N of 28N, east of the front to near 34W, and west of
    the front to near 54W. Fresh to strong winds are also seen within
    90 nm north of the stationary front between 60W and 72W. Moderate
    to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the front. Elsewhere,
    gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 20N, with moderate to
    fresh tradewinds south of 20N.

    For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the stationary
    front will dissipate tonight. High pressure building in the wake
    of the front will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
    across the western Atlantic S of 27N through early this evening.
    The next front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and
    reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong
    to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected
    ahead of the front north of 29N Tue. Weak ridging will extend
    from Bermuda to northeast Florida from mid week trough Sat.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Feb 24 02:14:00 2021
    438
    AXNT20 KNHC 231758
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1630 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean
    Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
    pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm
    of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning
    hours through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to
    build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds.

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving off the
    Florida coast this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
    of Florida by late this evening. Strong to minimal gale force SW
    winds and building seas ongoing ahead of the front north of 29N.
    Winds will diminish below gale- force by this afternoon. Seas
    will build to 9- 11 ft with the strongest winds.

    Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
    National Hurricane Center at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!svMivOqwSh_8jSUfse35edkrw5vkx3CHXfaGm1kpMmw1JnBC4ehdVB8LqBj3kPZ-A7GL5Bdt$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
    near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N32W
    to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 27W-
    36W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 250 nm
    north of the ITCZ between 40W-50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to near 25N87W,
    then continues west as stationary to near 26N96W, offshore of
    Southern Texas. No significant convection is associated with
    this boundary. 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the
    front, off southwest Louisiana near 30N90W. Recent buoy
    observations and scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
    return flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate
    northerly winds elsewhere. Seas are likely calm across the Gulf,
    reaching 3-5 ft.

    For the forecast, the stationary portion of the front will
    dissipate over the western Gulf today. The cold front will
    continue to move SE and exit the basin this afternoon. There
    will be an increasing risk of marine fog in the northwest Gulf
    by Wed night as southerly winds draw in warm, moist air over the
    cool shelf waters. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over
    the Texas coast Thu and Thu night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of
    Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.

    The high pressure now east of the Bahamas is supporting
    persistent fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
    central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off
    Colombia. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft over much of this area.
    Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the northwest Caribbean with
    calm seas.

    A fairly dry pattern has set up across the Caribbean, limiting
    shower activity to a few training cells in the trade wind flow
    north of the ABC Islands. Very little shower activity is evident
    across the Windward and Leeward Islands. Little change is
    expected for the forecast through the remainder of the week.

    High pressure north of the region will continue to
    support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
    central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to gale force
    off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early
    morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in the Windward
    Passage Wed night and again Fri night. Fresh to strong trade
    winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the
    Special Features section for details.

    A cold front extends from 32N72W to Southern Florida near West
    Palm Beach. The boundary is moving across Southern Florida and
    continues westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Recent
    scatterometer data from 1400 UTC reveals fresh to strong NW
    winds off Florida behind the front, and fresh to strong winds
    ahead of the front north of 20N and west of 60W. Scattered
    thunderstorms are also active in a line along the boundary
    mainly north of 27N between 71W and 79W.

    A surface ridge extending from 1031 mb high pressure center near
    32N47W is shifting eastward ahead of the front. Fresh NE to E
    winds are evident in ASCAT data on the eastern and southern edge
    of this ridge, where a weak shear line is evident from 24N40W to
    22N56W. The shear line is trailing the western portion of a cold
    front reaching 32N29W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring
    within 180 nm of the front on either side, north of 28N. In
    addition to winds, squally showers are possible along this
    boundary. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over much of the open Atlantic
    south of 32N, with a large contribution of northerly swell,
    except 8 to 12 ft in the area near the front north of 27N.

    For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the front is
    forecast to weaken and reach from 28N65W to 26N72W by Wed
    morning and move E of the area Wed afternoon. Surface ridging
    will dominate the regional waters through Sat, supporting fresh
    to strong winds S of 22N with the strongest winds being between
    the Turk and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 25 02:09:00 2021
    501
    AXNT20 KNHC 241722
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force NE to E winds will continue to
    pulse at nighttime and in the early morning for the next several
    nights within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, as high
    pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combines with the
    Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are forecast to be 11-14 ft during
    the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High
    Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
    of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
    continues from 05N20W to 0.5N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated
    strong convection is observed from 01S-06N between 05W-14W.
    Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N-05N between
    16W-33W, and from 08S-01S between 25W-43W. Isolated moderate
    convection is noted from 01N-04N between 33W-46W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends from near Marco Island, Florida to the
    eastern Gulf near 25N83W. The portion of the stationary front
    from 25N83W to 26N88W has dissipated. 1022 mb high pressure is
    centered north of the front over the northeast Gulf, near 29N85W.
    The high pressure is limiting winds over the northeast Gulf to 5
    to 10 kt and seas to 2 ft or less. These gentle winds have been
    confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass, and prevail east of 92W north
    of 22N. Recent buoy and platform data are showing moderate to
    fresh southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas over the northwest Gulf,
    between the high pressure and 1009 mb low pressure over Oklahoma.
    Dense fog is observed along central and southern portions of the
    coast of Texas. No significant showers or tstorms are observed.

    For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later
    today. Weak surface ridging building across the N Gulf in the
    wake the front will persist through Fri. Gentle to moderate SE
    winds should prevail across most of the Gulf Sat and Sun. Sea fog
    is likely to increase in coverage and density tonight over NW
    Gulf, and could persist through the end of the week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Relatively dry air is present across the basin. A few passing
    showers are possible east of Honduras and northern Nicaragua. A
    recent ASCAT pass from late this morning shows strong trades over
    the central Caribbean south of 16N between 68W-78W, with near
    gale force winds within 120 nm of the north coast of Colombia.
    Fresh winds are elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean.
    Moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean. An altimeter pass from
    early Wed morning around 24/0915 UTC shows seas of 2-4 ft in the
    NW Caribbean. Seas are likely 5-7 ft in the eastern and 7-10 ft
    in the central portion of the basin.

    For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the region will
    support fresh to strong E trades across the central and E
    Caribbean through at least Sun night, with winds pulsing to gale
    force off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early
    morning hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward
    Passage tonight, persisting through at least Sun night. Fresh to
    strong E trades should develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night
    and again Sun night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 32N57W to 28N66W to 26.5N73W. The
    front continues as a stationary front from 26.5N73W to the
    northwest Bahamas to near Ft. Lauderdale Florida. Scattered
    showers are occurring within 30 nm of the stationary front from
    the NW Bahamas to SE Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
    along and within 60 nm ahead of the cold front from 28N-32N
    between 55W-63W. A recent ASCAT pass from Wed morning shows fresh
    winds on both sides of the cold front, mainly north of 28N and
    east of 66W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring within this
    area of fresh winds. A 1022 mb high pressure over the W Atlantic
    near 33N71W is creating mostly gentle winds north of 24N and west
    of 70W, except for locally moderate near the stationary front.
    Seas of 5 to 7 ft are present over the open waters of the western
    Atlantic between the Bahamas and 65W.

    Farther east, a 1035 mb high pressure is centered near 34N31W. A
    cold front extends from the Madeira Islands to 29N20W to 24N34W.
    A shear line continues from 24N34W to 22N45W to 23N52W. Isolated
    showers are possible near the front and shear line. The ASCAT
    pass shows strong NE winds within 120 nm north of the cold front
    and shear line, mainly east of 40W. Moderate winds of a similar
    direction are within 60 nm south of the cold front and shear
    line. South of that, fresh to strong trade winds prevail across
    the tropical Atlantic Ocean. N swell with E wind waves are
    producing combined seas of up to 10 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic
    waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles. These conditions will
    prevail through at least Sun night. Farther north, a 24/0726 UTC
    altimeter pass showed seas of 8-9 feet from 20N-30N between
    48W-54W. Seas are likely 10-14 ft north of 24N between 20W-40W.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the portion of the frontal boundary
    west of 65W should dissipate tonight. A new, weak cold front will
    move from west to east across the waters north of 28N Thu and
    Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the second
    front will support fresh to strong E winds across the waters
    south of 22N late Fri through at least Sun night.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Jan 25 02:41:00 2021
    630
    AXNT20 KNHC 241755
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure located
    north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over Colombia and
    Panama will continue to lead to northeast to east winds to pulse
    to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during
    the overnight and early morning hours through at least Wed. Wave
    heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range
    of 8-12 ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the
    latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
    Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!q7YDsHseZAgagPk5AkYvAyav5XfuDF7LCEDidJ8xIk0ZOsn6xuvJCOQdvQ5jG3wvrPmPKinN$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
    05N09W to 05N15W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
    it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N25W to 03N36W and to near 01N46W.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
    120 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-39W. Scattered moderate
    convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between
    07W-13Wm, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-34W and
    within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W-27W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 15Z, a stationary front extends from near Fort Myers,
    Florida northwestward to 27N84W, where it becomes a warm front
    continuing northwestward to inland far southwestern Mississippi.
    Satellite imagery shows patches of low stratus type clouds and
    sea fog over the NE Gulf and over the southeastern Gulf from 25N-
    28N between 82W-87W. Smaller patches of similar type clouds and
    fog are advecting northward over the most of the western Gulf.
    Small isolated showers moving northward are over some sections of
    the central and western Gulf. Sky conditions are mostly clear
    over the far southeastern Gulf south of 25N and over sections of
    the south-central Gulf.

    As for the forecast: the stationary front will gradually weaken
    through this evening as the warm front continues to lift
    northward. The area of fog over the NE Gulf will remain through
    tonight, while the fog over the southeastern Gulf slowly erodes.
    Building high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will bring
    increasing southerly return flow and building seas over the
    western Gulf during today and through Mon. The ridge will weaken
    late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western Gulf and
    becomes stationary by early Tue. The front will then get
    reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the basin into Thu
    night. In the wake of this front, gale force north winds are
    expected Wed afternoon through Thu over sections of the western
    Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
    early morning hours near the coast of Colombia through the next
    few days. Please, refer to the Special Features section above
    for details.

    Elsewhere, latest ASCAT and buoy data indicate that mainly
    moderate to fresh trades are present, with the exceptions of
    fresh to strong trades over the southern part of the central
    Caribbean near the gale wind area and gentle to moderate trades
    over the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
    northeast winds are over the Windward Passage. Very stable
    atmospheric conditions present throughout, both aloft and at the
    low-levels, is allowing for only small patches of rather shallow
    moisture in the form of scattered to broken low clouds to exist
    across the basin. These clouds are quickly moving westward and
    some may be attendant by brief passing isolated showers. Small
    patches of low-level clouds with isolated showers that are also
    moving quickly westward are near Puerto Rico and the Lesser
    Antilles.

    As for the forecast: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
    continue to allow for the fresh to strong trades over the south-
    central Caribbean through at least Wed night. Winds elsewhere will
    change little in speeds through Tue night, except winds will pulse
    to fresh to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras during that
    time. North swell will propagate through the Tropical North
    Atlantic waters late Mon night through Thu night. A cold front
    will approach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
    Mon night. Another cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late
    Thu followed by fresh to strong northerly winds into the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 32N46W to
    25N59W and to 24N69W, where it transitions to a stationary front
    to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida. Broken to overcast low
    and mid-level clouds, with patches of rain and possible scattered
    showers are along and within 90-120 nm north of the front. A pre-
    frontal trough extends from 33N44W to 25N54W. Scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the trough
    north of 28N, while scattered moderate convection is within about
    120 nm east of the trough from 25N-28N. This activity is being
    enhanced by upper divergence occurring east of a broad upper
    trough that reaches from well north of the area southward to near
    21N and between 47W-65W. Latest ASCAT data shows fresh to strong
    southwest winds east of the pre-frontal to near 42W. Another cold
    front is along a position from near 32N54W to 29N61W, where it
    begins to weaken to 28N70W. Scattered to broken low clouds, with
    possible isolated showers are along and within 60 nm north of the
    front east of 61W, while scattered low clouds mark the front west
    of 61W. Satellite imagery, quite impressively, shows cold-air
    stratocumulus covering the waters north of the second front
    between 54W-73W. Latest ASCAT data passes depict strong northwest
    to north winds within the area of stratocumulus clouds.

    A weak trough extends from 21N52W to 15N54W. Isolated showers are
    possible near the trough.

    Remnants of old frontal boundaries are presently identified as
    weak convergence lines: one extends from 25N50W to the northern
    Leeward Islands, and the other one extends from near 24N56W to
    21N61W to 20N64W and to the northern part of the Mona Passage and
    to inland the east coast of the Dominican Republic. Mostly
    scattered low clouds, with possible isolated showers are along and
    near these convergence lines.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
    of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1024 mb located just
    south of the Madeira Islands near 31N16W. Moderate to fresh winds
    are along the southern periphery of the ridge.

    As for the forecast: The stationary front will gradually weaken
    through this evening, while the cold front that extends from near
    32N46W to 25N59W and to 24N69W is overtaken by a reinforcing surge
    of high pressure. This will tend to push the front south to along
    21N by Sun night and into the Greater Antilles Mon night. Southerly
    flow will increase across the waters east of north-central
    Florida Mon into Tue. Low pressure near Bermuda will bring strong
    west winds to the northeast waters Tue night into Wed. A stronger
    cold front will move off the southeastern U.S coast Wed night,
    while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of
    the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very
    large seas are expected with this system, mainly to the north of
    27N. This could lead to hazardous marine conditions over those
    waters.

    $$
    Aguirre
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jan 26 02:18:00 2021
    818
    AXNT20 KNHC 251748
    TWDAT

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 251017
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the
    Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will
    continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90
    nm off the coast of Colombia each night through at least early
    Wed morning. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast
    to be in the range of 10-13 ft, mainly around daybreak each day.
    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uQKTddaSbv8XaRZrTo2X-LoPpcT6teXpJr1n5wupSPrXrFnnawmgYELN58SgajiwTdb9OnY2$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
    to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to 03N40W to the
    coast of northern Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted along the ITCZ from 00N to 06N W of 15W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Patchy dense fog can be seen on satellite along the northern
    Gulf coast from Galveston, TX to Morgan City, LA and near the
    Florida coast from Apalachicola to the western Apalachee Bay.
    Fog will be possible in these areas until this evening. Buoy,
    platform observations, and latest scatterometer data, depict
    fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across the western Gulf of
    Mexico. In the eastern Gulf, high pressure over the western
    Atlantic is driving mainly moderate to locally fresh SE winds.
    Other than the patchy dense fog mentioned above, no significant
    weather is observed in the Gulf of Mexico.

    The pressure gradient between a ridge over the eastern Gulf
    waters and lower pressure over Mexico and Texas will continue to
    support fresh to strong S winds across W Gulf today. A weak cold
    front will move off the coast of Texas this evening, then stall
    over NW Gulf through Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach
    the stationary front by Tue night, and the combined front will
    quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh
    to strong N winds will follow the front, with gales developing
    over W Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
    about gale force winds during the overnight and early morning
    hours near the coast of Colombia.

    According to the latest scatterometer pass, moderate to fresh
    trades prevail over the Caribbean, with an area of strong winds
    observed in the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola.
    Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected in the Windward
    passage today, extending to the night hours. Otherwise,
    middle-level water vapor imagery show dry and stable air over
    the basin, with only a few plumes of shallow moisture depicted
    in the low-level precipitable water imagery. This shallow
    moisture along with middle to upper level diffluent flow may
    support isolated showers mainly over the NW Caribbean today.

    The Bermuda high north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the
    Colombian Low will support trades near gale to gale force,
    continuing during the overnight and early morning hours through
    Wed night. Pulsing near gale to gale force winds will likely
    resume again in this area Fri night. Mainly moderate to fresh
    trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong over the
    Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night with seas building to
    6-8 ft. N swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic
    waters Tue through Thu. A reinforcing cold front is approaching
    the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today,
    reaching these islands on Tue. A strong cold front will enter
    the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds
    over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic
    from 31N40W to 22N52W and terminates at 20N72W near the Turks
    and Caicos Islands. Fresh to strong SW to W winds associated
    with the front are north of 25N between 39W and 60W as indicated
    by the latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection
    and isolated tstms are within 180 nm either side of the front N
    of 27N. Otherwise, surface high pressure prevails over the SW N
    Atlc waters, being anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near
    30N74W. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
    southerly flow between the center of high pressure and the NE
    coast of Florida.

    Looking ahead in the western Atlantic, the cold front extending
    along 21N will continue to move southward into the Greater
    Antilles on Tue. S winds will increase across the waters east of
    N Florida today and tonight. Low pressure crossing north of
    Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the NE waters on
    Tue. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed
    night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies
    north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas
    are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night,
    mainly N of 27N.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the
    influence of a ridge, anchored by a high pressure of 1026 mb
    located north of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are
    along the southern periphery of the ridge.

    $$
    Mahoney/Ramos
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Jan 27 02:07:00 2021
    382
    AXNT20 KNHC 262202
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE
    U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly
    intensifies north of the forecast region. Near gale to gale
    force winds and very large seas are expected with this system
    Wed night through early Fri, mainly N of 26N from the NE Florida
    offshore waters to the central Atlantic waters. Seas as high as
    20 to 30 ft are expected across the western and central Atlantic,
    particularly N of 27N between 50W and 70W by Thu night, with
    seas of 12 ft reaching the waters just E of the northern and
    central Bahamas. These hazardous marine conditions will dominate
    the central Atlantic by Fri.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located N of the Caribbean
    Sea combined with a developing low over NW Colombia will support
    minimal gale force winds over Colombia adjacent waters tonight
    through early Wed morning. Wave heights in the range of 10-14 ft
    are expected during the peak winds tonight. Gale conditions are
    possible again Friday and Saturday night.

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front will reach
    a stationary front analyzed along the far western Gulf of Mexico
    by Wed morning, and the combined front will quickly move
    southeastward across the basin through Thu. Strong to near
    gale-force northerly winds will follow the front, with gales
    developing over the W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late
    Wed early evening through Thu. Seas are forecast to build to
    10-14 ft over the SW Gulf by early Thu morning.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!p5Y_yfDcm3wPw5u87li62tHCpsiRXc0KhHa95Q2odl9UvmnF5uVfPjWUd1rs5rJ5vAVzwXE8$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
    to 04N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N14W to 04N36W to the
    coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 02N to 06N between 22W and 44W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
    about a gale warning for the far western Gulf of Mexico.

    A stationary front extends from south- central Louisiana SW to a
    1009 mb low over the SW Gulf. A ridge extends across the eastern
    Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail over the
    eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over the western
    Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 4-6
    ft over the western Gulf.

    The stationary front will continue to linger across the region
    through tonight. A reinforcing cold front will reach the
    stationary front by Wed morning and the combined front will
    quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to
    strong N winds will follow the front with gales developing over
    W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu.
    Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin
    building over W Gulf on Fri evening ahead of the next cold front
    moving off the Texas coast by Sun.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
    about a gale warning for the Colombia adjacent waters.

    High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to near gale
    winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
    winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central
    Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over the
    western Caribbean.

    High pressure N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian
    low will support minimal gale force winds near the northern
    Colombian coast tonight through early Wed morning. Gale
    conditions are possible again Fri and Sat night. Fresh to locally
    strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras through
    tonight. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu.
    Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over
    the NW Caribbean waters on Fri and through the passes Fri
    afternoon through Sat. N swell will propagate into the NE
    Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters today through
    the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
    about an Atlantic gale warning.

    West of 65W: Surface high pressure of 1021 mb is centered near
    26N66W with ridge extending westward across Florida. Moderate to
    fresh winds are noted on either side of the ridge axis, with
    gentle to moderate winds along the ridge axis. Seas are in the
    6-8 ft range east of 70W, and 3-5 ft over the open waters west of
    70W.

    For the forecast, low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will
    bring fresh to strong W winds off the NE coast of Florida tonight
    into Wed. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed
    night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies
    north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas
    are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly
    N of 27N. Winds should diminish by Fri and seas should subside
    by Sun.

    Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N34W SW to the NE
    Caribbean. Fresh to near gale winds prevail within 210 nm east
    of the front N of 28N, with fresh to strong winds west of the
    front and N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N
    of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. The cold front
    has ushered in a set of NW swell. Seas of 12-18 ft are noted N
    of 25N between 35W and 57W, with seas in the 8-12 ft range
    elsewhere N of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Jan 27 23:10:00 2021
    075
    AXNT20 KNHC 271742
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
    SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly
    intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high
    as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near
    31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across
    the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales will first
    begin late tonight just east of northern Florida. By Thu evening,
    the gales will be occurring north of 27N between 57W-73W. The
    gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are
    expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning
    Thu afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through
    Saturday. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
    website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oteDtfy2Sb60bpi3R7J7SX8FhXGlIOnCn40nW0LeHio7TmpypkYe8fIYNWHQQS1Uz19-g0Gl$
    for more
    details.

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that currently extends
    from Biloxi, MS to just N of Tampico, Mexico will quickly move
    southeastward across the basin through Thu. The latest ASCAT pass
    shows that strong to near gale force N winds are occurring NW of
    the front, with frequent gusts to gale force possible offshore of
    Brownsville, TX in the coastal waters. Sustained gales will
    develop early this afternoon over the west-central Gulf and
    offshore Tampico, and then over the SW Gulf tonight through Thu.
    Winds and seas will diminish below gale Thu night, and continue
    diminishing on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-12 ft during this
    event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
    the National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oteDtfy2Sb60bpi3R7J7SX8FhXGlIOnCn40nW0LeHio7TmpypkYe8fIYNWHQQS1Uz19-g0Gl$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
    07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N17W to 02N27W to
    04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted roughly from the equator to
    06N between 28W and the coast of Brazil.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
    Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.

    A cold front extends from Biloxi, MS near 30N88W to just north of
    Tampico, Mexico near 23N98W. Ahead of the cold front, a pre-
    frontal trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to a 1012 mb low
    pressure centered at 22N96W. According to NWS Doppler radar, a
    line of moderate to strong convection is noted within 30nm of the
    pre-frontal trough north of 28N and east of 88W. In the central
    and eastern Gulf, observations show gentle to moderate southerly
    flow, with seas mainly 2-4 ft.

    Areas of dense fog with visibilities reduced to near 1 nm are
    possible through this afternoon east of the mouth of the
    Mississippi River to near the west coast of Florida.

    The cold front will continue moving south and east across the
    western and central Gulf of Mexico today. The front will be over
    central Florida to Veracruz, Mexico tonight and exit the basin
    by Thu afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front
    with gales developing over west-central Gulf this afternoon and
    over the SW Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will
    diminish on Fri. In the wake of this strong cold front, winds
    will begin to veer by the end of the week into the weekend as
    high pressure slides from over the southern Mississippi Valley
    to the Carolinas. Southerly return winds should begin increasing
    over the W Gulf on Fri evening ahead of the next cold front
    moving off the Texas coast by Sun. That next front is forecast
    to approach the SE Gulf by the end of the weekend/early next
    week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic to south
    of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, terminating just south of
    the Mona Passage. Isolated showers remain possible along this
    boundary. Strong winds were observed by the scatterometer in the
    central Caribbean, with near gales off the coast of Colombia.
    Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the NW and far E Caribbean.

    Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the south-
    central Caribbean through the end of the week. Gale conditions
    are possible Fri night and Sat night north of Colombia. A strong
    cold front will move across the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the
    front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW
    Caribbean waters Fri through Sat and over the Atlantic passages
    from Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the
    NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
    weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
    in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic.

    High pressure of 1022 mb is noted near 25N62W with a ridge axis
    extending west-northwest across the northern Bahamas to near Lake
    Okeechobee, Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
    noted from 22N-27N east of the Bahamas to 50W, with moderate to
    fresh E trades south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft outside the
    Bahamas to 65W.

    To the east, a stationary front extends from near 31N32W to the
    northern Leeward Islands near 17N62W. Isolated showers are
    possible near this boundary. A stationary front is along 32N
    between 44W-57W. An area of fresh W winds is noted north of 28N
    between 35W and 65W, while large mixed northerly swell of 8-13 ft
    dominates the open waters east of 60W. Fresh NE winds were noted
    in the latest scatterometer pass from 05N-20N between 40W-60W.

    A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight while
    the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the
    forecast area. The front will stretch from 31N68W to the Straits
    of Florida by Thu afternoon and from 31N58W to eastern Cuba by
    Thu night. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with
    this system tonight through early Fri, mainly N of 27N. Winds
    should diminish Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold
    front may move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Jan 28 22:16:00 2021
    939
    AXNT20 KNHC 281807
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front moved off the SE U.S.
    coast early this morning while the associated area of low
    pressure is rapidly intensifying north of the forecast area.
    Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas are
    expected with this system as it moves eastward across the
    Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales ongoing north
    of 27N and west of the front will spread east through the end
    of the week. The gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri
    evening. Seas are expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between
    40W-74W, beginning this afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing
    eastward through Sat. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read
    the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at the website

    https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uKJ1WZmmsNy6il7VBhwlOqQUAk1GVWFIv6IIguOc9KeD0lNhC4HCKej_fvEgB40YjBnc2usc$
    for more details.

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure will build north
    of the area in the wake of a strong cold front by the end
    of the week through the weekend. The combination of the
    building high and the low pressure over northern Colombia
    will support pulsing gale force winds north of the coast of
    Colombia Fri night and again on Sat night. Winds will be
    strong to near gale force tonight. Seas will build to around
    12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest
    NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
    at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uKJ1WZmmsNy6il7VBhwlOqQUAk1GVWFIv6IIguOc9KeD0lNhC4HCKej_fvEgB40YjBnc2usc$
    for more details.

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from the
    southwest coast of Florida near 24N81W to the central Gulf
    near 23N90W to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W will exit
    the basin by this evening. Gale force winds will persist over
    the extreme SW Gulf through early this evening. Winds and
    seas will diminish tonight through Fri, with peak seas to
    around 13 ft today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
    Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uKJ1WZmmsNy6il7VBhwlOqQUAk1GVWFIv6IIguOc9KeD0lNhC4HCKej_fvEgB40YjBnc2usc$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
    06N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N16W to
    02N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered
    moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
    the ITCZ from the equator to 05N between 31W and 50W.
    An additional area of scattered moderate convection is
    noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between
    05W and 13W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for details
    on a Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

    A cold front extends from the southwest coast of Florida
    near 24N81W to the central Gulf near 23N90W to
    Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W. Outside of the gales,
    fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted behind the front
    in the central and W Gulf, with 6-10 ft seas.

    The cold front will exit the basin late this afternoon.
    Gale conditions over waters adjacent to Veracruz, Mexico
    will continue through early this evening. Winds and seas
    will diminish tonight through Fri. Return S winds should
    begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold
    front moving off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move
    eastward across the basin and exit Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on a
    Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea
    north of the coast of Colombia.

    The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trades
    in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest winds off
    the coast of Colombia. Seas of 7-11 ft accompany these winds.
    Across the rest of the basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail
    with mainly moderate trades in the far eastern Caribbean.
    Seas are 3-6 ft.

    Fresh to strong winds will continue across the
    south-central Caribbean through Mon night, with gale conditions
    developing over waters adjacent to NW Colombia Fri and
    Sat nights. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean
    later today through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds
    will follow the front and affect the NW Caribbean waters
    through Sat and the Windward and Mona passages from early
    Fri through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean
    passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend,
    with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. A second
    cold front is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
    in effect for the western and central Atlantic.

    West of 60W, the cold front mentioned in the Special Features
    section extends from 31N73W to southeast Florida near
    26N80W and continues into the Gulf. Strong winds are noted
    ahead of the front north of 27N. A high pressure of
    1020 mb is located near 24N61W with a ridge axis extending
    to the Turks and Caicos ahead of a cold front discussed
    above. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are under
    the ridge between 18N-23N, with moderate to fresh winds
    noted elsewhere away from the incoming cold front.
    Seas are mainly 3-6 ft in a mix of old swells.

    For the forecast west of 60W, the front will move quickly
    eastward while the associated low pressure rapidly
    intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will
    stretch from 31N69W to western Cuba by this afternoon, and
    from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by tonight. Gale conditions
    associated with this system are expected through early Fri,
    mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri and seas should
    subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE
    U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the
    Florida coast.

    East of 60W, a stationary front extends from near 31N31W
    to east of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N60W. A 972 mb
    low pressure system well north of the area near 40N42W extends
    a cold front along 32N. Mainly fresh to locally strong winds
    are occurring north of 28N west of 40W. Moderate to fresh
    trades dominate areas south of 28N, with 7-11 ft seas in
    northerly swell.

    $$
    Mora/Mahoney
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jan 30 03:13:00 2021
    799
    AXNT20 KNHC 292240
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: An intense low pressure system
    resides north of the area with a cold front trailing into the
    subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W. Gales are occurring on both
    sides of the front, mainly N of 28N between 45W and 64W. This
    area of gale force winds will shift eastward with the front
    through the evening, then move north of the forecast area. Please
    read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vd11g7yrEGpoaRxJJN82QI6A3G2mr8PB6KXZ3dAUumWsuvNyNMpiGYiFSV8mjeKMVRAk5dYQ$
    for more details.

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
    area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
    Caribbean into Tue night, with gale conditions expected to
    develop near northern Colombia Saturday night. Seas are expected
    to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia Sat night through
    Sunday morning. Gale conditions may again pulse Sun night. Please
    read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vd11g7yrEGpoaRxJJN82QI6A3G2mr8PB6KXZ3dAUumWsuvNyNMpiGYiFSV8mjeKMVRAk5dYQ$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
    06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W to
    02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
    from 01N to 06N between 19W and 33W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface high pressure centered just N of the northern Gulf
    coast allowing for moderate NE-E flow over the entire basin. Some
    fresh winds are occurring the Yucatan Channel and offshore
    Veracruz. A weak surface trough stretches from the NE Mexico coast
    into the western Bay of Campeche and is producing scattered
    moderate convection in the extreme SW Gulf.

    Southerly winds will increase over western Gulf through Sat ahead
    of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Sun.
    The front will quickly move across the basin Sun through Mon.
    High pressure in the wake of this front will bring fresh to strong
    northerly winds across the Gulf through Mon. These winds will be
    confined to the eastern Gulf Mon night and Tue and diminish on Tue
    night. The front will be preceded by fresh to strong southerly
    winds north of 27N through Sun. Strong southerly winds will
    develop over the far western Gulf Wed and Wed night along with
    building seas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
    Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
    coast of Colombia.

    A previous cold front has devolved into a surface trough and
    extends from Hispaniola across Jamaica and into the Gulf of
    Honduras. Scattered moderate convection has developed in
    association with this front in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
    strong ENE winds are occurring offshore Colombia, with fresh winds
    throughout the western basin. Locally strong winds are also
    occurring in the Windward Passage. Across the eastern Caribbean,
    generally moderate winds prevail.

    The surface trough will move southward and dissipate early Sat,
    while the remainder of the front will become stationary over the
    far northwest part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sat and
    gradually weaken through Sun. Strong high pressure north of the
    area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
    Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected near the
    coast of Colombia during the overnight hours beginning tonight and
    through Sun. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE
    Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
    the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sat night through
    Sun night. A second cold front is forecast to reach from western
    Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, from the Dominican Republic
    to the central Caribbean by late Tue and become stationary and
    weaken over the far NE Caribbean. Mainly fresh north to northeast
    winds will follow in behind this front, except for fresh to strong
    winds through and near the Windward Passage.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
    Warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

    An intense low pressure system resides north of the area with a
    cold front trailing into the subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W.
    Fresh N winds behind this front encompass most of the western
    Atlantic, with strong winds N of 25N. Seas up to 32 ft are highest
    around 30N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
    on either side of the front. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlantic is
    dominated by surface ridging allowing for moderate trades to
    prevail.

    The cold front will move to just SE of the area early Sat and
    become stationary through Sun while weakening. Large northerly
    swell associated with the front will affect most of the waters
    east of the Bahamas through Mon. Another strong cold front will
    move offshore northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from
    near 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tue. Strong to near
    gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north
    of 27N, while strong west to northwest winds are expected behind
    it. Seas will quickly build over the northwest and central
    forecast waters east and west of the front north of 27N from Sun
    night through Mon, and over the rest of the waters east of the
    Bahamas Tue and Tue night. These seas will begin to slowly subside
    Wed and Wed night.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jan 30 18:38:00 2021
    988
    AXNT20 KNHC 301031
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1030 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
    area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
    Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the
    low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds
    near Colombia tonight. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft
    north of Colombia tonight through Sunday morning. Please read the
    latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
    Center at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sbK9N6mJTwmXgU4ghlvP7Pf1vIbCWz4_lTNidvkgzaPewOn_n0OemeH9ciDTCdsLJUpiPp1E$
    for more details.

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
    of northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from 31N66W to the
    Dominican Republic by late Tue. Areas of gale-force southerly
    winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N Sunday
    night through early Tue. Seas associated with the front will
    quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue. Please
    read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sbK9N6mJTwmXgU4ghlvP7Pf1vIbCWz4_lTNidvkgzaPewOn_n0OemeH9ciDTCdsLJUpiPp1E$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
    Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to
    01N26W to 04N31W to 02N35W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 21W and 36W.
    Moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 06N east of 15W near
    the coast of Africa.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high pressure
    over the Carolinas spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. The broad high
    pressure will shift eastward through tonight. Southerly winds will
    increase over the western Gulf of Mexico later today ahead of a
    strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sunday. The
    front will quickly move across the basin Sunday through Monday.
    Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the region
    Sunday night through early Tuesday. Strong southerly winds will
    develop over the western Gulf Wednesday and Wednesday night, along
    with building seas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential
    coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines
    of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights
    approaching 20 feet in some areas.

    A dissipating cold front passes through the eastern sections of
    the Dominican Republic, then south of Jamaica, to 17N87W near the
    Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are associated with the front.

    A weak surface trough passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean
    to 13N65W in the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered
    clouds, and a few showers are associated with the trough axis. The
    monsoon trough is inland along the northern coast of Colombia.

    The front in the NW Caribbean will drift southward then dissipate
    later today. Strong high pressure north of the area will support
    fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
    Tuesday, with gale conditions expected near the coast of Colombia
    tonight. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE
    Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters this
    weekend, with the largest swell expected tonight through Sun
    night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel on
    Monday, and extend from the Dominican Republic to the central
    Caribbean by late Tuesday.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 32N43W to 19N68W in the eastern part
    of the Dominican Republic. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds
    and isolated embedded showers are within 60 nm on either side of
    the front. Elsewhere, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans
    the Atlantic Ocean, on either side of the cold front.

    The cold front will stall and weaken from 22N55W to Puerto Rico
    through Sun. Large northerly swell associated with the front will
    affect most of the waters east of the Bahamas through Monday.
    Another strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late
    Sunday night, then reach from 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by
    late Tuesday. Areas of gale-force southerly winds can be expected
    ahead of this front north of 27N. Seas associated with the front
    will quickly build over the forecast waters Monday and Tuesday.

    $$
    Mundell
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 31 05:37:00 2021
    419
    AXNT20 KNHC 302229
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
    area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
    Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the
    low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds
    near Colombia tonight and again Sun night. Seas are expected to
    increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia tonight into Sun. Please
    read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t1wP2vIusAl4aTqaq1fWJJm1mhYjcPSt8ai6GtlbM6CVBZpbhqo3UYRNse1hUNMKXjYm8ege$
    for more details.

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
    of northern Florida late Sun night, then progress to a line from
    Bermuda to the Windward Passage Tue. Areas of gale-force
    southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N
    Sunday night through Tue. Seas associated with the front will
    quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas
    to 15 kt expected. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t1wP2vIusAl4aTqaq1fWJJm1mhYjcPSt8ai6GtlbM6CVBZpbhqo3UYRNse1hUNMKXjYm8ege$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
    Liberia, Africa near 06N10W to 05N18W where it transitions to the
    ITCZ and continues to 02N33W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
    isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-08N between 05W-
    25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high
    pressure centered over North Carolina spans the entire Gulf of
    Mexico. Seas range from 3-6 ft.

    High pressure will shift E through tonight. Fresh to strong S
    winds over the western Gulf will diminish tonight as a strong cold
    front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move off the
    Texas coast early Sun, and push across the basin through Mon.
    Fresh to strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will
    prevail across the region Sun night through early Tue. Strong to
    near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf
    Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas,
    ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast
    late Thu night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
    Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
    coast of Colombia.

    Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential
    coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines
    of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights
    approaching 20 feet in some areas.

    The stationary front over the NE basin has dissipated, as has
    associated shower activity. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
    through the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, deep- layer dry air is
    maintaining generally fair weather conditions with moderate to
    fresh trades across the rest of the basin.

    Strong high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong
    winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue. Large long-
    period northerly swell will propagate through the northeastern
    Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters during
    the rest of this weekend and into early next week, with the
    largest swell expected tonight through Sun night. A cold front is
    forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula early
    on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to
    the central Caribbean by early Wed. It will gradually weaken and
    dissipate by early Thu.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
    Warning in effect for the west Atlantic Ocean.

    A cold front has stalled from 32N42W to Puerto Rico. N of 28N,
    there is some strong W winds behind the front, with areas to the
    south having mainly moderate N winds. Showers previously
    associated with the front have dissipated. A broad are of very
    large swell is bringing seas in excess of 12 ft for areas N of 20N
    and E of 75W, with heights peaking over 20 ft toward 30N from
    Bermuda to just E of the stationary front. Elsewhere, high
    pressure centered S of the Azores is dominating the eastern
    Atlantic, bringing moderate to fresh trades S of 20N. High
    pressure centered over North Carolina is bringing light to gentle
    E winds N of the Bahamas and offshore Florida.

    The stationary front over the far SE waters will weaken and
    gradually dissipate through early Mon. Large long-period northerly
    swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will subside a little
    through Mon. Another strong cold front will move east of northern
    Florida late Sun night, reach from near 26N65W to the Dominican
    Republic by early Wed and stall. It will gradually weaken and
    dissipate by early Thu. Northerly long-period swell associated
    with the front will propagate through the forecast waters Mon
    through mid-week, while combining with residual swell. The swell
    will be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and
    Thu night.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 31 18:10:00 2021
    507
    AXNT20 KNHC 311104
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1045 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
    pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
    Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the
    south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
    morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours
    tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are
    expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the
    latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
    Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oodKbz3IbBwj_E3hmGS0hB-iW-hpJ5docVKPDoQTFaddC8etPKaGkj7QoL2jCADjAw4ggilz$
    for more details.

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
    of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE
    Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected
    ahead of this front north of 27N late tonight through Tue night.
    Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the
    forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in
    the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oodKbz3IbBwj_E3hmGS0hB-iW-hpJ5docVKPDoQTFaddC8etPKaGkj7QoL2jCADjAw4ggilz$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
    Guinea near 10N15W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from
    04N25W to 00N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection and
    isolated tstms are within 240 nm either side of the monsoon
    trough.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Moderate to fresh return flow is across the basin ahead of the
    next cold front expected to come off the coast of Texas this
    morning. Seas range from 3-6 ft. Dry air at middle and lower
    levels mantain fair weather conditions at this time.

    The cold front is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to
    south of Tampico early on Mon and move E of the basin early in
    the afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop ahead and behind
    the front this morning and prevail through Mon night. Strong to
    near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf
    Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas,
    ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast
    late Thu night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
    Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
    coast of Colombia.

    Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause
    potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing
    shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola
    through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 feet in
    some areas.

    A plume of shallow moisture, remnant of a stationary front, is
    supporting passing showers over portions of Puerto Rico,
    Hispaniola and Jamaica. Dry, stable air dominates the remainder
    basin, supporting fair weather.

    Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to
    near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through early Mon,
    with gale conditions developing near the coast of Colombia again
    tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean
    will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period northerly swell will
    propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical
    N Atlantic waters into early next week, with the largest swell
    expected through tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach from
    western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it
    reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
    early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
    the NW basin through Tue and the far SW basin Tue and Wed.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A gale is forecast to begin late tonight over the NE Florida
    offshore waters. See the Special Features section for details.

    Surface ridging continue to dominate the SW N Atlantic as well as
    the NE Atlantic forecast waters. Between the ridges, a stationary
    front extending from 31N43W to 20N60W gradually weakens. Fresh to
    strong winds are N of 28N W of the front to 65W and ahead of the
    front to 42W with seas to 22 ft.

    Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the
    Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold
    front will move east of northern Florida early on Mon, reach from
    near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed where it will
    stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force southerly winds
    are expected ahead of this front tonight through Tue night.
    Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will
    propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week,
    combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will
    be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and Thu
    night.

    $$
    Ramos
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Feb 2 01:04:00 2021
    617
    AXNT20 KNHC 011739
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front in the W
    Atlantic will continue to quickly move east this morning,
    reaching from 32N61W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed. Gale-
    force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of
    27N today through Tue night, as the front moves eastward between
    80W and 61W. Near gale force W to NW winds are expected behind the
    front this afternoon into Tue afternoon, with frequent gusts to
    gale force. Seas associated with the front are currently 11-14 ft,
    and will build to 12-15 ft by Tue in the gale area. Please read
    the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
    Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vJGJHkFCyXi_bsUE2_b2evFgbZuYkn7WHBs7rbkigH7i_8ST6NrSra30Uzp2IMIhrfLW2G-O$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
    Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues
    from 06N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection exists near
    the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 30W and 41W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, the strong cold front extends from the Florida
    Straits, along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to
    the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. NWS Doppler Radar
    shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the
    frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds with 6-10 ft seas are
    noted behind the front. Deep layer dry air supports fair weather
    basin-wide.

    The cold front will quickly exit the Gulf by this afternoon.
    Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the Gulf through
    Tuesday. As the ridge gradually shifts east Tue and Wed,
    southerly winds will return across the Gulf with seas building
    over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front. The cold front
    will reach the Texas coast Thu night and move across the NW and
    north- central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh northerly
    winds.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The strong to near gale force trade winds in the central
    Caribbean have diminished to fresh to strong this morning as
    high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. In this area,
    seas are analyzed 8-12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
    elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 6-9 ft.
    Gentle trades in the NW Caribbean observed by the latest
    scatterometer pass are accompanied by seas of 3-6 ft.

    Fresh to locally strong winds and large long-period N swell over
    the E Caribbean, NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N
    Atlantic will start to diminish Tue evening. A cold front is
    forecast to quickly enter the NW Caribbean today, then stall as it
    reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
    early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
    the NW Caribbean today through Tue morning and the SW Caribbean
    from Tue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will re-develop
    over the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage Wed night and
    prevail through Fri night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale Warning associated with a quick moving cold front is
    in effect for western Atlantic waters today through Tue night.
    Please see the Special Features section above for details.

    As of 1500 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale
    Warning extends from 31N76W to the Florida Straits. Outside of
    the Gale Warning, strong W to SW winds were observed by ASCAT
    behind the front with strong ESE winds ahead of the front, all
    north of 25N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
    front, mainly north of 29N. An additional area of scattered
    moderate convection is located ahead of the front from 24N to
    31N between 70W and 76W, moving to the NE. Seas W of 65W are
    6-9 ft except within the Gale Warning.

    For the forecast W of 65W, the strong cold front will progress
    eastward extending from 30N61W to the Dominican Republic from
    19N68W by Wed. The front will stall before dissipating early on
    Thu. Gale force southerly winds are ahead of this front and will
    shift eastward with the front through early Wed. Northerly
    long-period swell associated with the front will propagate
    through the forecast waters today through mid-week, combining
    with residual swell from a former front. The swell will begin to
    subside as it becomes confined to the eastern section of the area
    Thu through Fri night.

    In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, 1025 mb high
    pressure near 30N54W and another 1025 mb high pressure near the
    Madeira Islands dominate. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail.
    A weakening cold front extends from 31N35W to 28N41W where a
    weakening stationary front then continues to 20N61W. The front
    will dissipate later today or tonight.

    $$
    Mahoney/ERA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Feb 3 01:02:00 2021
    927
    AXNT20 KNHC 022138
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N64W to
    eastern Cuba. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of
    this front north of 27N through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W
    to NW winds will continue behind the front through early this
    evening. Seas associated with the front are peaking near 20 ft.
    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!slXwrGJUIowBqDlx-iV0F88Bl8e6GXcFqQuhMDs4ewWMRE9jhxSwsEhEXBpXWBAGtdj42nSe$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
    Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 04.5N21W. The ITCZ continues
    from 04.5N21W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    convection is from 03N to 09N between 20W-35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong N to NW
    winds continue across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
    Florida. These winds will gradually diminish through this
    evening as the ridge weakens. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
    elsewhere east of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 90W.
    Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the SE Gulf, 1-3 ft over the
    NW Gulf, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

    A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next couple of
    days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
    E of Florida supports fresh to strong northerly winds over the
    eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These winds will
    gradually diminish through tonight as the ridge weakens.
    Southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf on Thu, ahead
    of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night. The
    front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico,
    Mexico Fri afternoon and stall afterwards before dissipating Sat.
    Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a
    Dios, Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh winds and seas in the 5-7 ft
    range prevail west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and
    seas of 5-8 ft, are noted elsewhere east of the front.

    Winds over the SW Caribbean along the Nicaragua offshore waters
    will reach near gale force by this evening. Winds will start to
    diminish in the SW Caribbean Wed morning as the front stalls from
    Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating Wed night. Fresh to
    locally strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean will
    expand to the north-central part of the basin and the Windward
    Passage Thu and prevail through Sat night. Otherwise, long-period
    N swell over the NE Caribbean passages will continue to subside
    tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through
    Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for
    details.

    Elsewhere west of 65W, the strong to gale force winds continue
    across much of the waters west of the front, with gentle to
    moderate winds east of the front. Seas are in the 10 to 18 ft
    over the open waters east of the Bahamas and north of 23N, with
    seas in the 6-10 ft range south of 23N and east of the Bahamas.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from just
    E of Bermuda to the easternmost tip of Cuba will reach from
    26N65W to Haiti tonight, and from 24N65W to Dominican Republic on
    Wed, then stall over the SE waters on Thu before dissipating on
    Thu night. Strong to gale force winds are noted on either side
    of the front. A reinforcing cold front will maintain these gale
    conditions through Wed, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less
    from W to E Wed night into Thu. Long period northerly swell in
    the wake of the front will propagate across the forecast waters
    and the Caribbean passages through Thu.

    Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 26N38W, then
    continues stationary to 25N48W. Near gale to gale force winds
    prevail north of 23N between 60W and 65W. Fresh to strong SE to
    S winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N between 53W and 60W. Fresh
    to strong trades are noted south of 20N between 43W and 54W.
    Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere south of 23N, with
    gentle to moderate winds north of 23N. Seas are in the 10-20 ft
    range north of 26N between 60W and 65W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere
    north of 20N. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range south of 20N.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 4 02:42:00 2021
    700
    AXNT20 KNHC 032217
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from
    32N58W to 24N64W then stationary to Hispaniola. Near gale to
    gale force winds are north of 27N west of the front to 73W. These
    winds are expected to persist through early this evening. Seas
    are 12-18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!p1gL1Wy20ZpZzWwHMARV6jywbo1hL9i3bMNVS4jot9_IoDIkLOTipcyjFFQVkk04hqzXcwRy$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
    07N12W to 05N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N19W to the
    coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 03N to 10N E of 21N to the coast of Africa. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 03N
    between 31W and 46W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure prevails across the basin. Light to gentle
    anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the basin. Seas are in
    the 3-5 ft range over the SE half of the basin, and 1-3 ft over
    the NW half of the basin.

    The area of high pressure will shift eastward through Thu, ahead
    of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf early Fri
    morning. The cold front will stall from the Big Bend of Florida
    to Brownsville Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken and drift
    northward through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong southerly
    winds are expected ahead of the front on Thu.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front extends from Haiti to Panama. Fresh to strong
    winds, with seas of 7-10 ft, prevail south of 15N west of the
    front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail
    elsewhere west of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds, and
    seas of 5-7 ft, are noted within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia,
    with moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, elsewhere east
    of the front.

    The stationary front will weaken by tonight. High pressure
    building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong
    trade winds near the coast of Colombia beginning tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please
    see the Special Features section above for more details.

    A cold front extends from 32N58W to 24N64W then stationary to
    Hispaniola. Near gale to gale force winds are noted north of 27N
    west of the front to 73W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere
    north of 25N west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are seen
    south of 25N. Seas are in the 12-18 ft range north of 27N between
    60W and 75W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere over the open waters west of
    65W. East of the front, high pressure dominates the forecast
    waters, anchored by 1033 mb high centered near 36N41W. Fresh to
    strong SE to S winds are north of 20N between 53W and 60W.
    Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere north of
    20N. Fresh to strong trades are found south of 20N. Seas of 7-10
    ft are noted east of 60W, and 8-11 ft south of 20N.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
    24N65W to Dominican Republic this evening, then stall and weaken
    on Thu. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight and Thu. Long
    period northerly swell in the wake of the front will propagate
    across the forecast waters to the Caribbean passages through Thu.

    $$
    AL
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 4 23:51:00 2021
    656
    AXNT20 KNHC 041736
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough exits the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
    05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 02N24W to the
    northern coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted north of the ITCZ to 07N between 20W and 27W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1022 mb high pressure centered off the E coast of Florida
    supports fair weather and gentle to moderate southerly winds
    over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are less than 4 ft in the
    E and central Gulf, increasing to 3-5 ft along the NW Gulf coast.

    The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early
    Fri morning. The front will then stall from central Florida
    to Brownsville, Texas Fri night, then drift northward on Sat.
    A reinforcing surge of cold air will push the front again
    across the Gulf waters by late Sat, reaching the SE Gulf
    waters on Sun, where it will stall by Sun night into Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weakening stationary front extends from Port-au-Prince, Haiti
    to Colon, Panama. Moderate trades are present east of the front,
    except for fresh to strong trades off the coast of Colombia.
    Moderate N winds are noted west of the front to 82W. Gentle to
    moderate E winds along the southern portion of a ridge continue
    from 82W across the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the E and
    central Caribbean, decreasing to 3-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

    Yesterday, cool air behind the stationary front led many local
    stations in Cuba to report temperatures below 10C/50F. This
    morning was no different, with 34 reports below 10C/50F, most
    located in the Havana-Matanzas Plains. The lowest observation
    recorded was 4.6C/40.3F at Union de Reyes. These cool temperatures
    often occur between January 15 and February 15, which is
    climatologically the coldest period in Cuba.

    The stationary front will weaken and gradually dissipate today.
    High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
    fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean.
    Strong to near gale-force winds are expected near the coast
    of Colombia at night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N57W to the coast of Hispaniola
    near 20N70W. Strong S winds are along the front mainly north
    of 29N, according to the latest scatterometer pass. Scattered
    moderate convection is present north of 24N east of the front
    to 55W. A reinforcing cold front enters the area near 31N62W
    and extends to 26N69W. Gentle to moderate W winds prevail west
    of both fronts to the Florida coast.

    Winds and seas associated with the cold front extending from
    31N57W to Haiti will diminish today as the front moves eastward
    and weakens. Southerly winds will increase east of northern
    Florida on Fri as a cold front approaches the area. The front
    will stall from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral on Sat, then lift
    northward Sat night as a low pressure system develops northeast
    of Jacksonville, Florida. As a result, fresh to strong S to
    SW winds are expected over the north waters on Sun.

    In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, a strong
    1034 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate
    to fresh anticyclonic flow. Scattered moderate convection
    associated with an upper level trough is present in the eastern
    Atlantic from 09N to 20N east of 30W.

    $$
    Mahoney/AR
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Feb 6 17:20:00 2021
    280
    AXNT20 KNHC 061005
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0930 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Gale force NE to E winds will diminish some later this morning,
    but pulse again tonight and again Sun night as a tight pressure
    gradient between lower pressure over South America and high
    pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds.
    Please, refer to the following website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uR_A4bOh72uTIrSEDz7gSVpUGU0S33esXT_U-nJGKy4_tm1EpMVcumNfalqpj2WS3mH-ON6I$
    , for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
    02N30W and 01N38W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to
    07N between 10W and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S
    of 07N between 10W and 24W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A slow-moving cold front extends from just north of Tampa Bay,
    Florida to 27N90W to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate
    convection is located N of the front, to the E of 90W. A surface
    trough over the western Bay of Campeche is not producing any
    sensible weather at this time. Fresh NE winds are occurring N of
    the cold front, otherwise gentle to moderate winds prevail over
    the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

    The cold front will stall later this morning, retreat northward
    as a warm front this afternoon, then be reinforced by a secondary
    cold front surge in tonight. By late Sun, this combined front will
    stall from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the eastern Bay of
    Campeche. This front will then lift northward as a warm front Mon
    and move N of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow
    areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early
    next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale
    conditions N of Colombia. High pressure to the north is keeping
    dry conditions in place with generally fresh to strong trades
    prevailing. Sea range from 5 to 8 ft.

    High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
    fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into
    the middle of next mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force
    nightly into early next week off the coast of Colombia.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The stationary front that was located from near 32N50W to the
    Dominican Republic has devolved into a surface trough. This trough
    will weaken and dissipate today. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted along the trough N of 30N. High pressure dominates the
    Atlantic on either side of the front, with a 1030 mb center
    located SW of the Azores and a 1026 high near 33N55W. Winds
    throughout the basin are mainly moderate to fresh out of the NE to
    E. Decaying swell S of 20N is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft, with
    seas of 6 to 8 ft to the north.

    A cold front has emerged off the SE U.S. coast from 32N77W to near
    Daytona Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is located
    within 60 nm of either side of this boundary. Ahead of the front,
    W of 65W and

    This cold front will stall through tonight in the far NW waters,
    then be replaced by a slightly stronger cold front Sun. Ahead of
    this second front, strong S winds will redevelop N of 28N. This
    front will move SE then stall from near Bermuda to around Fort
    Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then gradually lift N.N of
    38N, fresh to strong S winds are occurring.

    $$
    KONARIK
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 7 00:46:00 2021
    387
    AXNT20 KNHC 061731
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force winds from overnight are
    currently strong to near-gale force north of Colombia. Seas
    range 11 to 13 ft. Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse again
    tonight and Sun night as a tight pressure gradient between lower
    pressure over South America and high pressure building toward
    the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will continue to
    range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the following website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!p-mkM7L-BEo3nrSiGbhpEYOLrmUcQKryiERdJG8AomK48IuMSViJfVmY84P17DGknLMqqLZf$
    , for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone/Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from
    04N18W to 02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from
    01N-06N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    along the ITCZ from 02N-04N between 42W-46W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1008 mb low is noted off the Middle Texas coast near 28N97W. A
    stationary front extends south of the low to 27N97W. A warm
    front extends east of the low across the northern Gulf to
    29N87W. The boundary stalls from 29N87W to the north-central
    Florida coast near 28N83W. Showers are mostly across the
    northeast Gulf N of 28N between 82W-90W. Isolated showers are
    noted in the western Gulf off the Texas coast. Fog is also being
    reported across the north-central and northwestern portions of
    the basin south of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are mostly
    in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the western
    basin. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the
    north-central Gulf.

    The front will retreat northward as a warm front this afternoon,
    ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf tonight. By
    late Sun, the cold front will stall from near Fort Myers,
    Florida, to the eastern
    Bay of Campeche, then lift northward as a warm front Mon and
    move north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow
    areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early
    next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale
    conditions N of Colombia.

    High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place
    with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the
    central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
    winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with
    upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 9-13 ft in the
    south-central portions of the basin.

    High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
    fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean
    into the middle of next mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force
    nightly into early next week off the coast of Colombia.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front is pressing southward across the western Atlantic
    from 31N76W to the central Florida coast near 29N81W. Scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and south of
    the front from 28N-31N between 75W-81W. An area of isolated
    thunderstorms are clustered off the South Florida coast. Gentle
    to moderate N-NE winds behind the front with light to gentle
    southerly winds south of the front. In the central Atlantic, the
    remnants of a stationary front extends N-S as a trough from
    30N55W to 20N59W. Showers are in the vicinity of this trough.
    High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the basin
    anchored by a 1032 mb high near 33N34W. Seas range 3-6 ft in the
    western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic.

    A weak cold front from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral,
    Florida will move little today before stalling and lifting north
    of the area this evening, ahead of a slightly stronger cold front
    moving off the coast of northeast Florida Sun. Expect strong SW
    winds ahead of the second front in the waters north of 28N early
    Sun. This second front will move southeast then stall from near
    Bermuda to around Fort Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then
    gradually lift north of the region through mid week.

    $$
    AReinhart
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 7 16:36:00 2021
    155
    AXNT20 KNHC 070959
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0915 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse
    nightly at least through Mon night as a tight pressure gradient
    between lower pressure over South America and high pressure
    building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will
    continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas
    Forecast product in the following website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pNMmsFNFZ5oCuNOVh6bs9QuMXbcPfJpSwkqYLKaUIBzng-MkvFF1DsLokxEbD35Bamg_eetU$
    , for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 07N12W
    to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil
    near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
    monsoon trough from 03N-11N and east of 16W. Scattered moderate
    convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 00N-04N between
    21W-50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1008 mb low pressure center is offshore Florida near 29N83W. A
    cold front extends SW from this low to 22N97W. Scattered
    thunderstorms line the frontal boundary to the east of 86W. A weak
    surface trough has formed off the west coast of the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh N winds are
    ongoing, highest off the Texas coast. To the east of the front,
    gentle to moderate are occurring in the SW Gulf, with moderate
    southerly winds over the eastern Gulf. Near the coast of Florida,
    fog is occurring to the SE of the cold front. Seas range 5-6 ft
    in the north-central Gulf and 2-3 ft in the southern Gulf.

    In the forecast, the low will track NE, inland and away from the
    area today, while the cold front will move SE and stall this
    evening from near Fort Myers, Florida, to S of Tampico, Mexico.
    The front will then lift northward as a warm front Mon and move
    north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas
    of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early this
    week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features Section above for details on pulsing
    gale conditions N of Colombia.

    High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place
    with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the
    central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
    winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with
    upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 9-11 ft in the
    south-central portions of the basin.

    High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
    fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean
    through the middle of this week. Winds will pulse to gale force
    tonight and Mon night off the coast of Colombia.


    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A previously stalled front over the far NW waters has lifted N as
    a warm front out of the region. S of the front, moderate to fresh
    S winds have developed N of 27N and W of 75W. To the E, a
    weakening surface trough is noted from 32N54W to 23N60W. High
    pressure ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by
    a 1029 mb high near 32N37W. Seas range 4-6 ft in the western
    Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic, with moderate to
    fresh trade winds dominating S of 25N.

    A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida today. Ahead
    of the front, strong SW winds will impact areas N of 28N. By late
    Mon, the front will stall from around 30N65W to around Fort
    Lauderdale, Florida. The front will then lift north as a warm
    front and out of the region Tue.

    $$
    KONARIK
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Feb 8 03:14:00 2021
    297
    AXNT20 KNHC 072315
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
    combined with the Colombian/Panamaniam low will support fresh to
    strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
    Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of
    Colombia tonight and Mon night. Near gale-force winds are also
    expected Tue night. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the
    strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
    product in the following website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!ogo-E9_I184XSmzVPGNK-nHKaxdJpbNR8slee6KPKHqCySXPhF0WCF5DN3HCBg3ERTi_-i1P$
    , for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N30W to
    the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is noted from 00N-02N between 17W-31W. Similar
    convection is within about 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-
    45W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front from extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to near
    to Poza Rica, Mexico. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms
    is associated with the front E of 87W. The tail end of this band
    reaches the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula where some tstms are
    flaring up. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds follow the
    front forecast to lift northward as a warm front Mon and move
    north of the Gulf waters by Mon night. Moist southerly flow may
    allow areas of fog to develop across the northwest and north
    central Gulf through mid week.

    The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and
    reach from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Veracruz,
    Mexico by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected
    in the wake of the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
    pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

    The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh
    to strong trade winds across most of the east and central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are noted between eastern Cuba and
    Jamaica while mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail over
    the NW Caribbean. Seas of 8 ft or greater can be found in the
    central Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
    support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
    Caribbean through the middle of this week.

    Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will move across
    the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N77W across South Florida into the
    Gulf of Mexico. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
    just ahead of the front affecting parts of South Florida and the
    NW Bahamas. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong S-SW winds
    ahead of the front and N of 27N. Strong to near gale force winds
    are also noted along 30N E of the front to about 75W. This system
    will stall from 30N65W to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida by Mon.
    The front will then lift north as a warm front and out of the SW
    N Atlantic by Tue. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall between
    NE Florida and Bermuda by Wed, and will lift north of the area
    Thu and Fri.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
    influence of a 1028 mb high pressure located near 32N39W. Patches
    of low level moisture are noted mainly N of 15N while transverse
    high clouds, associated with a tropical jet stream, cover the
    waters between northern South America and the west coast of
    Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

    $$
    GR
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Feb 9 00:42:00 2021
    910
    AXNT20 KNHC 081805
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1650 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
    combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to
    strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
    Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast
    of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near gale-force winds are
    also expected Wed night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the
    strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
    product in the following website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t6LqjgMFoO4SPoCBzyhAfUdCg9oDcK7eisal5NCxRwFZDAHTy7XDZvtwal0J1myJlGEI6FAb$
    , for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
    06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N43W.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
    the Monsoon trough from 00N-06N between 05W-19W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ
    between 23W-43W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front exists from near Key West, Florida, to
    26N91W where it transitions to a warm front and extends to the
    middle Texas coast. Convection previously associated with this
    front has generally diminished, although a few showers persist
    In the Central Gulf. North of the frontal boundary, moderate to
    locally fresh NE-E winds prevail, with gentle E-SE winds south
    of the front.

    The stationary front is forecast to lift N as a warm front today
    and be north of the area late tonight. Moist southerly flow may
    allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf
    through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the
    Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the western Florida
    Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
    pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

    The latest scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong trades
    dominating the entire basin with the exception of the northwest
    Caribbean where flow becomes moderate to fresh. Seas of 8 to
    11 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are
    observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions
    prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
    trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean.

    High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to
    strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
    Caribbean into Fri night. Near gale force winds are expected off
    the coast of Colombia nightly through the forecast period,
    except tonight where gale conditions are forecast.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N63W to the NW Bahamas, then stalls
    to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A band of thunderstorms
    stretches along the cold frontal portion of the boundary, with
    scattered showers along the front from the Bahamas to the Florida
    coast. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SW winds are
    occurring, with fresh NE winds behind the front. High pressure of
    1027 mb centered near 30N36W dominates much of the rest of the
    basin, causing gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. To the south,
    moderate to fresh trades prevail, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft.

    The entire front will gradually stall today, then lift north as a
    warm front tonight, and out of the region Tue. The next cold
    front may not move off the SE U.S. coast until Thu or Fri.

    $$
    MORA
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Feb 10 02:33:00 2021
    847
    AXNT20 KNHC 092220
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2145 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean
    Sea will continue to support pulsing gale force winds off the
    coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night, with near gale conditions
    prevailing through Fri. Seas will build to 11-12 ft with the
    strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
    product at the following website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rVK72Fsk2SgC6D0hYjKWasTPkxWeEGujfwV13qeYy9VJTjM26sopl3LxYVa-2yWml8N8uSWL$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to along the
    equator and to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
    is noted from the equator-10N between 17W-31W

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends from the northern Florida Peninsula to
    1018 mb low pressure located just offshore of the Florida
    Panhandle near 30N86.5W, continuing west-southwest to near the
    central Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
    are within 60-120 nm southeast-south of the front and low to the
    east of 87W. Reduced visibilities in dense fog are noted across
    the coastal waters. A surface trough is analyzed in the western
    Gulf from 26N93W to 18N95W. No significant precipitation is
    associated with this feature. Gentle to moderate SE-S flow
    prevails south of the front, with gentle NE-E winds north of the
    front. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft in the central
    Gulf in the lee of the trough where the strongest winds are noted.

    The low and front will weaken and dissipate through early Wed.
    Surface ridging will develop on Wed providing moderate return flow
    through Thu. This may allow areas of dense fog to persist across
    the northern Gulf. A cold front will move off the Texas coast by
    late Thu and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
    Campeche Fri evening, where it will stall through Sat evening.
    Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf
    early Fri into Sun.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on
    pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

    Fresh to strong trades continue to dominate the central
    Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas of 8-12
    ft can be found in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern
    Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the western Caribbean. Dry conditions
    prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
    trade wind flow across the northern Caribbean.

    High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support
    fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean and
    portions of the SW Caribbean through Sun night. Moderate to fresh
    winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong at
    night Thu and Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    East of 65W, a cold front extends from north of the area to 32N40W
    to 29N49W continuing as stationary to near 28N64W. Scattered
    showers are possible on either side of the front. Moderate to
    fresh S-SW winds are possible north of 29N and east of the front,
    with moderate to fresh N-NE winds north of the front. Seas are
    8-12 ft in NW swell north of the front. To the east, 1021 mb high
    pressure is near 27N28W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
    noted south of 20N with gentle to moderate flow from 20N-29N. Seas
    are 5-8 ft across the waters south of the front.

    West of 65W, a warm front extends from 30N71W to 1017 mb low
    pressure near Calabash, North Carolina, then continuing south-
    southwest as a stationary front to 1020 mb low pressure east of
    Amelia Island, Florida near 31N80W, to across the northern Florida
    Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
    occurring north of 29N and west of 68W. Patchy dense fog will be
    possible in the coastal waters from near Melbourne, Florida
    northward through early Wed. Mainly moderate return flow prevails
    north of 23N and west of 65W, with moderate to fresh trades south
    of 23N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft west of 65W in residual northerly
    swell, except to 8 ft near 30N65W and 3 ft or less west of the
    Bahamas.

    The front and attendant low pressure areas will move N out of the
    area this evening. The front will move back into the region as a
    cold front early on Wed, and exit the SW N Atlantic waters Wed
    night. Strong high pressure northeast of the area will support
    fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as
    well as in the approaches of the Windward Passage into the
    weekend.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 11 01:51:00 2021
    675
    AXNT20 KNHC 101813
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1650 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the
    south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
    morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours
    tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 11ft near Colombia. Gale
    force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and
    Thu night, with near gale conditions prevailing into Sun night.
    Please, refer to the following website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!qJBlUIx2IqxY0MfYbfQ2M7fg6mIYkD8-MiCX0vjai-bTu6PwjYJCF-e_pR98tOV1YikiNDrw$
    , for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
    03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N
    between 36W-43W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front stretches from near Apalachicola, Florida
    along the northern Gulf coast to 29N94W. Convection previously
    associated with this weakening boundary has dissipated. Fog
    prevails about 60 nm off the coast of the U.S. throughout the
    northern Gulf waters and west of the Florida peninsula due to
    very moist air over cooler waters. Winds are generally gentle to
    moderate out of the east, with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

    The stationary front is expected to lift N today while
    dissipating. Fog will continue to be possible into the late
    week. A cold front will move off the coast Thu, then reach from
    the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Fri, where it
    will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds
    will affect the far western Gulf early Fri through Sat night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on
    pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

    Scatterometer data from this morning revealed fresh to strong
    trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, with
    moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Clusters of isolated showers
    and thunderstorms are embedded in the trade wind flow. Seas
    range from 3 to 6 ft across the basin, with swell heights
    increasing near the waters adjacent to Colombia.

    High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
    strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
    Caribbean into the start of next week. Gale force winds will
    pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night, with near
    gale conditions prevailing into Sun night. Moderate to fresh
    winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong
    at night Wed through Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    As of 1500 UTC: The previous stationary front extending from the
    northeast Florida coast near St. Augustine to 32N72W is now
    dissipating. Winds in the western Atlantic are gentle to
    moderate. Two high pressure centers, a 1025 mb high centered
    near 31N51W and a 1022 mb high centered near 27N24W, allow for
    gentle to moderate trades to prevail across most of the basin. A
    cold front exists between the highs, extending from 32N30W to
    27N43W where it becomes stationary and continues west to 27N54W.
    Winds are fresh from the south ahead of the front and north of
    28N. Seas behind the boundary range from 9-18 ft, reaching 21 ft
    north of the area.

    The stationary front extending in the western Atlantic will lift
    N of the area as a warm front tonight. Dense fog is forecast to
    prevail over NE Florida adjacent waters near the frontal
    boundary through noon today. Return flow will establish across
    the region on Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
    the NW offshore waters Sat evening. Surface ridge extending
    across the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds
    at night between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos, and the
    approaches of the Windward Passage through Sat.


    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Feb 12 18:20:00 2021
    369
    AXNT20 KNHC 121033
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1030 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 07N12W to
    06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 00N32W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N-03N between
    19W-35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front is moving southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico,
    and currently extends from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico
    Mexico. Behind the front, fresh to strong northerly winds and
    widespread showers or thunderstorms are occurring. South and east
    of the front, weather conditions are mostly fair and winds are
    light to moderate out of the southeast or south.

    The cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward to
    extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche
    tonight, and from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night.
    Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf
    through tonight.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scatterometer data from the past few hours revealed near-gale
    force winds near the northern coast of Colombia, and fresh to
    strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean, where seas
    are in the 7-11 ft range. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to
    fresh. Dry air in the mid-and upper-levels exists across much of
    the region, which is supporting generally fair weather. However,
    as is typical, there are a few patches of low-level clouds and
    embedded showers moving within the trade wind flow.

    High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
    trade winds across the central Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh
    to strong SE winds are possible in the Gulf of Honduras through
    Sat morning. Large north swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic
    waters through the middle of next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Generally quiet weather prevails across the western Atlantic.
    Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N35W and
    extends to 28N50W. A narrow line of showers is occurring along
    the front. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the rest of
    the basin, causing fair weather and moderate to fresh trades.

    Swell generated from a strong low pressure system in the north-
    central Atlantic has spread south to areas E of 50W and N of 15N,
    causing seas of 10 to 14 ft. To the south and west of this area
    of swell, seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range.

    A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The
    front will stall in the NW forecast waters on Sun then lift north
    of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support
    fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Sun
    night. A weak cold front will move off Florida on Tue.

    $$
    Mundell
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Feb 13 05:07:00 2021
    112
    AXNT20 KNHC 122323
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
    Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
    the ITCZ from 00N-03N between 23W-33W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A slow moving cold front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb
    low centered at 24N94W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A
    stationary front extends from the low northeastward to the
    Florida panhandle near 30N86W. Scattered moderate and isolated
    strong convection is occurring within 90 nmi south of the
    stationary front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
    20N-25N west of 94W. Ship WTSZ reported near gale NNW winds in
    the SW Gulf at 22 UTC.

    Strong northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf through
    tonight. The slow-moving cold front will reach from the Florida
    Big Bend low pres near 24N92W to the Bay of Campeche early Sat.
    The front will stall, then gradually weaken through Sun night.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
    central Gulf of Mexico near and east of the front through
    tonight. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast of
    Texas early Mon, and reach from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan
    Peninsula early Tue. Low pres may develop along this front early
    Mon in the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds are possible in
    the western Gulf behind the front to the west of the low on Mon.
    Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Southeasterly return flow
    will increase over the western Gulf Tue night ahead of another
    cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast Wed.

    On a side note, the GFS and ECWMF models indicate strong
    westerly winds E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
    Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
    reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
    trough and high terrain in that region.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The 1022 mb Bermuda High north of the area is promoting fresh to
    strong E winds over S central Caribbean. Ship C6CX3 reported
    strong E winds just north of Venezuela at 23 UTC. No significant
    deep convection is occurring, though scattered showers are
    present in the SE Caribbean as well as near Puerto Rico and
    Hispaniola.

    High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
    trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Wed
    night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the Gulf of
    Honduras through Sat morning, then will increase to strong again
    mid-week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Surface ridging dominated the Atlantic between the 1022 mb
    Bermuda High centered near 28N63W and the 1028 mb Azores High
    centered near 28N27W. A weak cold front extends briefly into our
    waters between 32N32N to 29N42W, with no significant winds.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted between 30-32N between
    47W-50W and between 30-32N west of 78W.

    A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The
    front will then stall off the Georgia and N Florida coast on Sun
    then lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the
    region will support fresh to locally strong winds north of
    Hispaniola through Sun night, then again Tue through Wed. Fresh
    to strong SW winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
    night and early Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
    Florida late Tue. This front will stall from 31N77W to Cape
    Canaveral Wed before lifting northward.

    Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical
    N Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the
    middle of next week.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Feb 13 18:23:00 2021
    622
    AXNT20 KNHC 131035 RRA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1030 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to
    03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N32W. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the deep tropics
    from 01.5N to 03.5N between 22W and 47W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends from 30N85W in the Florida panhandle
    to a 1008 mb low near 25N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W.
    Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of the
    frontal boundary. Isolated showers are observed elsewhere east
    of the front.

    The front over the Gulf of Mexico will stall and weaken through
    Sun night. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast
    of Texas early Mon, and reach from the Big Bend of Florida to
    the Yucatan Peninsula by early Tue. Low pres may develop along
    this front early Mon in the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds
    are likely in the western Gulf behind the front and west of the
    low on Mon. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Southeasterly
    return flow will increase over the western Gulf Tue night ahead
    of another cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast Wed.

    On a side note, the GFS and ECWMF global models indicate strong
    westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
    Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
    reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
    trough and high terrain in that region.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Moderate high pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to
    locally strong easterly winds over south-central Caribbean. An
    area of moderate showers is located in the SE Caribbean south of
    14N between 60W and 67W. No significant deep convection is
    occurring elswhere.

    High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
    trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed
    night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the Gulf of
    Honduras this morning. Large north swell will continue to affect
    the tropical N Atlantic waters through the middle of next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weakening surface ridge prevails across the Atlantic between
    40W and 80W. A weak cold front extends into the forecast waters
    between 32N29N and 28N41W, with no significant winds. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 29N to 32N west of 78W.

    A weak cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast tonight will
    stall and lift north of the area through Sun night. High
    pressure over the region will support fresh to occasionally
    strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh to strong S
    winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and Tue
    ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida late Tue.

    Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
    Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
    of next week.

    $$
    Mundell
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 14 02:12:00 2021
    717
    AXNT20 KNHC 132303
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
    low pressure will move off the coast of Texas late Sun night.
    This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
    early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
    are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through Mon to
    the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Winds will
    reach near 40 kt by Mon within 120 nm of the Texas coast and
    coast of Mexico, with seas reaching near 17 ft off Tampico by Mon
    afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on
    Tue. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
    Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oPxq6D8ycpoae2Ek7Jp2U4naqHcfipMwkCDvpc_L7gJOND0xTEAuwLSpbEzMm6WdukfSD5eN$
    for further
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the the Sierra
    Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N1820W. The ITCZ extends
    from 03N20W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River.
    Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
    60 nm either side of the axis west of 25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
    Special Features section for details.

    A stationary front extends from Panama City, Florida to 1010 mb low
    pressure near 26N90W to the far southwest Gulf near 19N95W. A
    recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds
    over the northwest Gulf, where seas are estimated to be 6 to 8
    ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
    evident elsewhere west of the front, and gentle to moderate E to
    SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted east of the front. Scattered
    showers and a few thunderstorms are evident within 180 nm east
    of the frontal boundary, primarily off the coast of Yucatan, and
    over the northeast Gulf.

    This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
    early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force
    northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night
    through Monday to the west of the low pressure and behind the
    front. A light wintry mix of precipitation could reach the
    coastline of Texas and western Louisiana late Sun night into Mon.
    Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue. The next
    cold front will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from
    the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong
    to near gale force winds are likely to precede and follow this
    front across the basin, with gale force winds possible off
    Veracruz Thu.

    On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
    westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
    Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
    reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
    trough and high terrain in that region.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Recent buoy and ship observations along with earlier
    scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh trade
    winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with
    fresh to strong trade winds south Hispaniola and off northeast
    Colombia. Moderate to fresh SE winds were evident over the
    northwest Caribbean. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the
    eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest
    Caribbean. Grand Cayman radar shows a few showers moving to the
    N-NW into the Isle of Youth and western Cuba. A line of
    thunderstorms off the coast of Yucatan is moving eastward toward
    the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, no significant shower or
    thunderstorm activity is noted.

    For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
    fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
    Caribbean through Thu. By the middle of next week, winds off
    Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
    possible Wed night. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of
    Honduras Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front moves through
    the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will continue to affect the
    tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles,
    through the middle of next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 65W, a stationary front extends from 32N78W to near
    Jacksonville, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are noted south
    of the front, moving in a line from near Fort Pierce, Florida to
    32N75W. A surface ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N through the
    northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off the coast
    of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to increase
    to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to
    fresh E winds are also evident south of 22N, to the south of the
    ridge. Seas in open waters are mostly 4 to 6 ft.

    For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun
    night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to
    occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh
    to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night
    and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida
    Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to Vero
    Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night.
    Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and
    east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of
    Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic.

    Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N,
    centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 27N32W and 1025 mb high
    pressure near 26N52W, with a weak front in between the two high
    pressure areas. Fresh trades and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted south
    of 20N. Fresh NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are
    noted north of 20N east of 35W, and gentle to moderate winds and
    5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere over North Atlantic waters south
    of 32N.

    Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
    Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
    of next week.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 14 16:47:00 2021
    318
    AXNT20 KNHC 141023
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
    low pressure will move off the coast of Texas on Sun night. The
    front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early
    Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are
    expected in the northwestern Gulf by early Monday to the west of
    the low pressure and behind the front. Seas will increase to 15 ft
    with strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across the
    region by Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
    by National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tbqmH9BIInxmECynKrO2o0I3nOIzfF_SdEjbPbXBAMNHoNHu9j9EbYqgHjD6Gp_zyyhBQ4Af$
    for further details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
    Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
    from 04N20W to 02N35W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted within 90 nm on either side of the axis west of 30W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
    Special Features section for details.

    A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee bay
    near 30N84W and extends SW to 23N92W. SE of the front, a 1010 mb
    surface low is centered near 26N88W, with trough extending from
    28N83W to the low to 24N89W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
    winds north of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail
    elsewhere.

    The stationary front will weaken through tonight. A strong cold
    front with associated low pressure will move off the coast of
    Texas tonight, with gale force northerly winds expected over the
    northwestern Gulf on Monday behind the front. The next cold front
    will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida
    Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale
    force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across the
    basin, with gale-force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.

    On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
    westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over
    northern Mexico through early next week. These winds could reach
    gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough
    and high terrain in that region.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
    across most of the eastern and western parts of the basin, with
    fresh to strong trades south of Hispaniola to Colombia and
    western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the
    eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest
    Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing for dry
    conditions to prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving showers
    embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.

    High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
    to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
    through the middle of next week. By that time, winds off
    Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
    possible Wed night/early Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf
    of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold front
    approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will
    continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of
    the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 70W, a stationary front extends from 32N77W to 29N81W.
    Scattered showers are noted south of the front moving off the
    Florida coast, north of 29N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off
    the coast of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to
    increase to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. To the
    east, a 1025 mb surface high is centered near 32N53W and broad
    ridging dominates across most of the Atlantic basin. Moderate to
    fresh E winds are evident south of 22N, to the south of the ridge.
    Seas in open waters are mostly 5-10 ft.

    For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun
    night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to
    occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh
    to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
    night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
    Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W
    to Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
    night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
    Bahamas and east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through
    the Gulf of Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W
    Atlantic.

    Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
    Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
    of the week.

    $$
    ERA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Feb 15 04:36:00 2021
    876
    AXNT20 KNHC 142311
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
    low pressure will form off the coast of southern Texas tonight.
    The front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
    early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
    are expected in the northwestern and west-central Gulf late
    tonight through Monday afternoon to the west of the low pressure
    and behind the front. Seas will increase to 17 ft Mon over the
    west central Gulf near the coast of Mexico. Winds and seas will
    diminish across the region by early Tue. See the latest NWS High
    Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vn3GNrRLmHw13IPmgpZEbuII3BjCkKfW9fJ9LD_ah9gtevDW3b4swTvHVnPZ0RHsoJIBv7jF$
    for further
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
    Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
    04N20W to 02N35W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted 02N to 04N between 27W and 31W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
    Special Features section for details.

    A stationary front reaches from Cedar Key, Florida to 1011 mb low
    pressure near 29N85W, to the central Gulf near 25N90W. A sharp
    surface trough reaching from off the central coast of Texas to
    near 20N93W. Buoy and platform data are showing winds over the
    far northwest Gulf starting to increase as a low pressure area
    forms. Seas are building over the northwest Gulf as winds
    increase, and wave heights are likely reaching 5 to 7 ft
    currently. Gentle to moderate winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
    observed elsewhere. A few showers may be ongoing over the
    southeast Gulf in a fairly broken line from off Fort Myers,
    Florida to near Cancun, Mexico.

    A cold front will form tonight and extend southward from the low
    pressure starting to form over the northwest Gulf. By Mon
    afternoon, the low pressure will be south of Mobile, AL, and the
    cold front will extend from there to south of Veracruz Mexico.
    The front will reach from Sarasota Florida to Cancun Mexico by
    early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
    are expected in the northwestern and west-central Gulf late
    tonight through Monday afternoon to the west of the low pressure
    and behind the front. A wintry mix of precipitation is likely
    along the coastlines of Texas and Louisiana tonight and Mon
    morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the region by early
    Tue. The next cold front will enter the western Gulf late Wed,
    then exit east of the basin by Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale
    force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across
    the basin, with gale force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.

    On a side note, strong westerly winds are observed east of the
    Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. This pattern may
    persist through the early part of the week. These winds could
    reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
    trough and high terrain in that region.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
    across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with
    mainly moderate winds in the western portion of the basin. Fresh
    to strong winds are likely still occurring south of Hispaniola to
    Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft
    over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the
    northwest Caribbean. A few thunderstorms are evident over the
    far western Yucatan Channel, near Cancun. Elsewhere, high
    pressure north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to
    prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving showers embedded in
    the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.

    The high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
    to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
    through the middle of this week. By that time, winds off
    Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
    possible Tue night and Wed night. SE winds will increase in the
    Gulf of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold
    front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is
    expected to enter the NW Caribbean Fri, with strong N winds behind
    the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical
    N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through
    the middle of this week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 65W, a cluster of thunderstorms is active along a stationary
    front off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida. No significant
    weather is noted elsewhere. A ridge extends from 1025 mb high
    pressure near 28N55W eastward into northeast Florida. This
    pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate SE winds mostly north
    of 22N, and moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N. Seas are
    generally 4 to 6 ft in open waters.

    For the forecast, high pressure over the region will support
    fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night.
    Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
    night and Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off Florida
    Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from 31N74W to
    West Palm Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
    night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
    Bahamas and east of Florida early Thu as a cold front moves E
    through the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will move E of
    Florida early Fri, and extend from 31N71W to central Cuba Fri
    evening. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front.

    Elsewhere, east of the 1025 mb high pressure near 28N55W, a cold
    front reaches from near Madeira to 25N45W. Mostly gentle to
    moderate winds persist north of 20N, with moderate to fresh
    trades prevalent south of 20N, mainly south of the high pressure
    west of 50W. Large NW swell in excess of 8 ft dominates mainly
    east of 55W, with highest seas over the discussion area possibly
    reaching 14 ft near 32N30W.

    Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
    Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
    of the week.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Feb 16 00:04:00 2021
    939
    AXNT20 KNHC 151728
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds have been occurring
    this morning and early afternoon to the west of a 1008 mb low
    pressure offshore southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, and behind
    a cold front offshore of lower Texas and northeast Mexico,
    including offshore of Tampico. Pilots Station East at Southwest
    Pass, Louisiana (28.9N 89.4W) measured winds of 53 kt gusting to
    62 kt at an elevation of 20m (67 ft) above sea-level at 1524 UTC.
    An oil platform KMIS, located just E of the Mouth of the
    Mississippi River near 29.3N 88.8W, recently measured sustained
    winds of 46 kt and a gust of 55 kt at an elevation of 85m
    (279 ft) above sea level at 1635 UTC. A late-morning partial ASCAT
    pass shows near-gale winds covering most of the western Gulf,
    with some areas of gale force off Tampico. Seas up to 17 ft are
    currently occurring offshore of Tampico, and these seas will
    persist through the afternoon hours. NOAA buoy 42055 at 22.1N
    93.9W recently measured significant wave heights of 16 ft at 1650
    UTC and NNW winds of 29 kt gusting to 37 kt. Winds will diminish
    below gale force by late afternoon or early evening today. Seas
    will subside in the western Gulf by early Tue.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient is developing
    over the south-central Caribbean that will persist through at
    least mid-week. With this, gale force winds are expected to pulse
    at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia tonight through
    Wed night.

    See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at the website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!thqUOyStWam3Pk3ivilYDNQX5ROIwTml5UaPa3e-0M-5cQQk1MVKqnOqOcC9b6GrvhiqtwG3$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean off the coast of
    Guinea near 09N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
    02S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    noted from 02N-07N between 07W-21W, from 01N-04N between 25W-36W,
    and from 02S-02N between 39W-48W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1008 mb low is to the south of southeastern Louisiana. A cold
    front extends from the low to Veracruz Mexico. Gale force winds
    are currently occurring west of the low and cold front. See the
    Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A
    weak 1013 mb low is located just offshore Tampa and the Florida
    Big Bend. An east-west oriented front connects the two low
    pressures in the Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is seen north of 26.5N between Pensacola and southeast
    Louisiana. Additional isolated showers and storms are seen south
    of the 1013 mb low, to the west of Tampa. Freezing rain and light
    snow have recently been reported along the coast of Louisiana at
    Baton Rouge and Patterson.

    For the forecast, any snow/frozen precipitation that is occurring
    over the Gulf of Mexico or along the coast of Louisiana or
    Mississippi should end by early afternoon today. The gale force
    winds over the Gulf of Mexico will diminish by late afternoon as
    the 1008 mb low lifts north of the area, with the trailing cold
    front extending from the western Florida panhandle to 25N89W to
    the northwest Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front will weaken as it
    reaches the far southeastern Gulf Tue, where it is expected to
    become stationary, before lifting back north as a warm front Tue
    night and Wed. Another low pressure system will track E-NE across
    the NW Gulf on Wed and Wed night dragging a strong cold front
    across the western Gulf. This cold front is expected to reach
    from Apalachicola Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu, and
    exit the Gulf Fri. Gale conditions are possible behind this front
    off Veracruz on Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly winds
    are possible ahead of this front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Gale force winds are forecast to occur at night within 90 nm of
    the coast of Colombia tonight through Wed night. See the Special
    Features section for details.

    Scattered showers and tstorms are seen on satellite imagery to
    the west of Jamaica, near the Cayman Islands, and extending to
    the south coast of western Cuba. Elsewhere, only typical isolated
    trade wind showers are seen due to relatively dry air. Recent
    scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds across
    most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with moderate
    to locally fresh winds in the western portion of the basin. Seas
    are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the eastern and central
    Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft in the northwest Caribbean.

    For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
    fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
    Caribbean through Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale
    force at night through Wed. Southeast winds will increase in the
    Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front
    approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move
    through the NW Caribbean Fri followed by strong northerly winds.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach Florida.
    Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen between 60-120 nm
    to the SE of the cold front, mainly N of 27.5N and E of 79.5W. A
    recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds prevailing over
    most of the west Atlantic, except for fresh to locally strong
    winds to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A pair of 1026
    mb highs are located near 29N61W and 28N55W, respectively.
    Farther E, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N24W to
    26N41W. Scattered moderate showers are seen along and N of the
    front. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the tropical
    Atlantic from 03N-22N between 35W-61W. Gentle winds are generally
    from 24N-31N, where the subtropical ridge is. Large north swell
    will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the
    east of the Lesser Antilles, through Thu before subsiding Thu
    night through Fri night. Currently, seas are 9 to 11 ft from the
    Tropical N Atlantic waters northward into the east-central
    Atlantic.

    For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
    support fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu
    night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of
    northern Florida tonight through Tue ahead of a cold front that
    will move east of Florida on Tue. The front will become
    stationary Tue night from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach Florida,
    then lift northward Wed and dissipate Wed night. Scattered
    tstorms, some possibly strong with gusty winds along a squall
    line, are expected ahead of the front tonight. Winds will
    increase over the western Atlantic, including the waters between
    the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, beginning on Thu as a
    cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move
    east of Florida early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the
    central Bahamas to central Cuba late Fri. Fresh to strong
    northerly winds will follow this front.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 10 02:42:00 2021
    166
    AXNT20 KNHC 092335
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2240 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    A new cold front will be moving off the Texas coast Sun night. As
    the front moves across the basin, gale-force northerly winds are
    expected behind the front S of 23N, and within 150 nm of the
    coast of Mexico beginning early Mon. These conditions will begin
    to diminish by Mon evening. Seas across this area will build to
    10-15 ft Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!ojhWKP4mkCrsqIwS-gmYlZcspcQAvcXTKizeYw-AyMpaRAkE9tXBSl5E3wUV6bNc4LEvZvEZ$
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ
    continues from 05N20W to 03.5N34W to 04.5N47W to 04N52W.
    Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240
    nm north of the boundaries.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale
    Warning in effect for the western Gulf.

    A surface ridge extends SSE across the basin from a 1030 mb high
    over Oklahoma. The ridge has weakened slightly today as a cold
    front in the NW Caribbean has drifted SE. Moderate to locally
    fresh northerly winds prevail across the eastern Gulf, with NE to
    E winds across the west half. The ridge will slide east tonight
    and Sun, with weakening winds across the east half of the Gulf Sun
    and strong southerly return flow developing west of 92W, in
    advance of the next cold front.

    The next cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday night
    will bring strong NW winds across the western and central Gulf of
    Mexico on Monday. The front will extend from the central Gulf
    coast to the south-central Bay of Campeche on Mon, then northern
    Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Tue, then weaken considerably and
    exit the basin late Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spreading high clouds
    across all but southeast portions of the Caribbean. A stationary
    front extends across the western Caribbean from eastern Cuba near
    20N78W to the NE coast of Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers
    are within 60 nm on either side of the front. To the south, the
    proximity of the monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
    convection south of 12N between 74W-83W. Morning scatterometer
    data depicted moderate winds across the basin, with locally fresh
    winds over the south central portion north of the Colombian
    coast, and fresh NE winds immediately behind the stalled front.

    The front will dissipate through Sun. Fresh trade winds will
    prevail across the basin this weekend, with nightly pulses of
    strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. Strong trade winds
    are expected in the central and eastern Caribbean Mon and Tue,
    with nightly winds near gale-force north of Colombia Mon through
    Wed. The next cold front will approach the NW Caribbean on Tue
    night into Wed and stall near the Yucatan Passage. This front
    could linger across the region through Thu.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A western Atlantic cold front passes through 32N65W to the SE
    Bahamas area near 23N73W to eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate
    convection prevails along and east of the front mainly north of
    25N. Strong W to NW winds prevail behind the front to the north of
    27N, where seas are 9-14 ft. Strong SW winds are found along and
    ahead of the front, north of 27N to 58W, where seas are 8-11 ft.

    To the east, a surface trough extends from 32N43W to 28N54W.
    A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin,
    anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure centered near 36N26W. Fresh to
    strong trade winds south of the ridge dominate the tropical
    Atlantic south of 17N to near 57W.

    The west Atlantic front will extend from 31N59W to northern
    Hispaniola tonight, then from 30N60W to north of Hispaniola on Sun
    as the tail-end of the front dissipates. Strong winds and large
    seas are expected north of 26N on both sides of the front through
    tonight. Another cold front is expected to move east of the
    Florida coast on Tue.

    $$
    Stripling
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 10 17:36:00 2021
    988
    AXNT20 KNHC 101136
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong winds to winds frequently
    gusting to gale force are expected tonight over portions of the
    NW Gulf of Mexico in association with developing low pressure and
    its associated cold front. As the front moves across the basin,
    gale force north winds are expected behind the front south of 24N
    and west of 95W beginning early Mon. The gale conditions will
    translate from offshore Tampico Mon morning to offshore Veracruz
    Mon afternoon. These gale force winds will begin to diminish by
    Mon evening. Wave heights over this area will build to 10-13 ft
    Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tYQjq9chcdfRz2MYgD5CS5BPk8WgwIoaWLBUsAiQtJZtY7af1s-H9fZRyfTpuCxNMMlfMTRL$
    for more details.

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
    strong western Atlantic high that will build southeastward over
    the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America will
    result in strong to gale force northeast to east winds along and
    to within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia Mon night into early
    Tue. Wave heights with these winds will be in the range of 9-14
    ft. The high pressure will weaken during Tue as it shifts east-
    southeastward across the central Atlantic allowing for these gale
    force winds to diminish to strong speeds. Wave heights will
    slightly subside by late Tue.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N14W to 06N21W, where over scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
    03N30W to 02N40W and to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. Scattered
    moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between
    31W-36W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-30W and
    along and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-24W. Similar
    activity is south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ within 30 nm of
    a line from 06N11W to 04N19W to 03N24W and to 03N29W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. See
    the Special Features section above for details.

    Strong high pressure and associated dry and stable conditions
    are present over the eastern and central sections of the Gulf.
    Meanwhile, areas of rain along with scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms are moving east-northeast over the NW Gulf
    and over the northern section of the far western Gulf as upper-
    level divergence east of a shortwave trough begins to infiltrate
    those areas of the Gulf. East to southeast winds are increasing
    over the far western part of the NW Gulf, and will continue to do
    so throughout the day, with wave heights building to possibly 10
    ft. Fresh east to southeast winds are over the remainder of
    the western Gulf, while gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere.

    The strong high pressure over the area will shift eastward and
    weaken today in response to the next cold front that will approach
    the NW Gulf. This front along with developing low pressure will
    move to along the Texas coast this afternoon. The front will
    reach from southwestern Louisiana to low pressure near 28N95W 1014
    mb tonight. The low will quickly track northeastward and reach to
    just south of the western Florida panhandle on Mon afternoon and
    to near Apalachicola, Florida by late Mon night, with the trailing
    cold front to 25N87W and to inland the Yucatan Peninsula. The low
    will move over northeastern Florida by Tue afternoon, with the
    cold front extending southwestward to the northeast Yucatan
    Peninsula before exiting the Gulf Tue night. Strong winds reaching
    frequent gusts to gale force are expected over some parts of the
    NW Gulf Sun night. Gale force winds are possible south of 24N and
    west of 95W to along the coast of Mexico Mon through Mon night.
    Expect for areas of rain along with scattered showers and
    thunderstorms over the NW Gulf through tonight.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to 19N76W, then
    begins to dissipate to across Jamaica and to 17N81W. Isolated
    showers and thunderstorms are seen along and east of the front to
    near 72W, including the southern part of the Windward Passage.
    At the same time, increasing clusters of moderate to isolated
    strong convection is confined to the southwestern Caribbean. This
    activity is being aided by a short-wave trough that is embedded
    in strong westerly flow aloft over that area of the sea along with
    the additional ingredient of the eastern segment of the Pacific
    monsoon trough that extends into northwestern Colombia. Isolated
    showers and thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean between
    65W-71W.

    An overnight ASCAT pass highlighted fresh north-northeast winds
    from 15N to 19N between 81W-86W. Fresh trades prevail across the
    central Caribbean south and east of the front, with strong winds
    off the coast of Colombia. Moderate northeast to east winds are
    over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh northeast to east trades over
    the central Caribbean will increase to strong speeds over much of
    the central Caribbean this afternoon and continue through late Wed
    night, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Thu night.
    Trades will reach gale force speeds along and near the coast of
    Colombia Mon night. See the Special Features section above for
    details. A weakening cold front is expected to move into the
    northwest Caribbean on Tue, then become stationary and dissipate
    from central Cuba to the northwest Caribbean by Wed evening.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N58W to 24N68W and to the Windward
    Passage area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
    noted north of 29N and east of the front to 53W, while isolated
    showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the front from
    25N to 29N. Similar activity is south of 22N east of the front to
    near 65W. An overnight ASCAT pass indicated fresh to strong south
    to southwest winds north of 29N and east of the front to near 50W
    and fresh to strong winds north of 29N west of the front to 68W.
    Related wave heights are in the range of 9-12 ft.

    Strong high pressure is present to the east of this front anchored
    by a 1030 mb high center that is located at 33N28W. Overnight
    ASCAT data indicates an extensive area of fresh to strong
    northeast to east trades that covers the Atlantic waters south of
    a line from 25N35W to 20N45W to 15N61W. Wave heights generated by
    these persistent trades over this extensive fetch area of the
    Atlantic are in the range of 8-11 ft.

    As for the forecast: The cold front will move east of the area
    this evening. Strong winds and large seas north of 29N west of the
    front to 75W will shift east of the area this afternoon. Another
    cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tue.
    It will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 32N67W to 26N72W
    and to central Cuba Wed afternoon, then move east of the area by
    early Thu. Yet another cold front will move across the NW part of
    the area on Thu.

    $$
    Aguirre
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jan 12 03:44:00 2021
    829
    AXNT20 KNHC 112338
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the Gulf
    of Mexico is producing gale force winds over the SW Gulf. The
    most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these
    winds, affecting mainly the waters S of 22N W of 95W, including
    the Veracruz area. Seas with this gale event are currently in the
    10-14 ft range over the SW Gulf. Winds will diminish below gale
    force this evening, with seas subsiding some. Fresh to strong
    northerly winds are noted elsewhere in the wake of the front that
    extends from a 1016 mb low pressure near 29N87W to the eastern
    Bay of Campeche.

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
    pressure north of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low
    will support gale force winds overnight tonight into Tuesday
    morning, and repeat again Tue night into early Wed morning at
    about the same times. Wave heights are forecast to build to 12-14
    ft in the gale force wind area. These winds and seas will
    diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts
    east.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vgbA2GQ1IQYYA-nTnOaWZfOJTUFqxckjXyejaeteBtGYBQkghMxKb4qgv-ydKSlXTtwpraTq$

    for more details on both gale warnings.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast
    of Sierra Leone at 07N12W and continues to 04N20W to 05N25W.
    The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 05N35W and to the coast of
    Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    04N-06N between 08W-16W, and from 04N-07N between 28W-37W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Gale force winds are observed over the SW Gulf in the wake of a
    cold front moving across the Gulf waters. Please, see the Special
    Features section for more details. As of 18Z, a low pressure of
    1016 mb is centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near
    29N87W. The aforementioned cold front extends from the low center
    to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The low pressure will move into
    the central Florida Panhandle tonight while the cold front will
    slowly move into the far southeast Gulf through mid week, and
    will dissipate over the Straits of Florida through Thu. High
    pressure of 1033 mb centered over Texas follows the front. The
    associated ridge dominates the western half of the basin. Abundant
    cloudiness is noted on latest visible imagery over the Gulf waters,
    with cold air stratocumulus clouds behind the front. Scattered
    showers are along the frontal boundary.

    A coastal trough over the western Gulf will maintain strong NW
    winds between the trough and the coast of Mexico Tue and Wed,
    while high pressure building across the northern Gulf will allow
    winds and seas to diminish elsewhere. Looking ahead, the next
    cold front will reach the NW Gulf on Fri, producing fresh to
    strong winds and building seas. The front is forecast to exit the
    Gulf on Sat.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
    see the Special Features section for more information.

    Elsewhere, the most recent satellite-derived wind data provided
    observations of fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
    central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted in the
    lee of eastern Cuba to about 18N. High pressure N of the area
    combined with the Colombian low supports these winds, that are
    forecast to diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens
    and shifts east.

    Scattered moderate convection is seen over the SW Caribbean and
    near the coast of Nicaragua, particularly from 10N-18N between
    80W-83W. Similar convection can also be found over the NW
    Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
    helping to induce this convective activity.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, Las Bahamas and the
    State of Florida. A cold front extends from 31N47W to 23N62W,
    where it becomes stationary to just north of the eastern tip of
    Cuba near 20N74W. A band of mainly low clouds with embedded
    showers is associated with the front, forecast to dissipate
    through tonight. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
    influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure located
    NE of the Azores. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted based on
    latest scatterometer data N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to about
    to 24N and E of 35W to the coast of west Africa. Similar wind
    speeds are also observed N of the ITCZ to about 12N between 35W
    and 46W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range within this area of winds,
    forecast to persist on Tue.

    A weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by
    Tue morning, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
    early Wed. The front will stall an start to dissipate Thu from
    31N65W to the southern Bahamas, ahead of a reinforcing front
    moving across the waters north of 27N that will move east of the
    area through Fri. Winds and seas will increase north of the
    Bahamas late Fri ahead of another cold front expected to move off
    the northeast Florida coast Sat.

    $$
    GR
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Jan 14 01:59:00 2021
    562
    AXNT20 KNHC 131706
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W.
    The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 23W and 34W.
    Scattered showers are also noted in the vicinity of the
    monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front, extending from a weak cold front
    moving through the western Atlantic, reaches the Bahamas
    near 26N77W to the western coast of Cuba near 23N84W.
    A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from
    19N92W to 2N95W. Scattered showers are noted across the
    eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Channel north to
    the Florida Panhandle and east of 90W. ASCAT indicated fresh
    to strong north to northwest winds west of the trough and
    moderate to fresh northeast winds east of 94W.

    A surface trough across the SW Gulf will maintain strong
    to near gale force NW winds near the coast of Mexico
    today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early
    Fri, and extend from the Florida panhandle to southern
    Mexico near Veracruz Fri evening. Reinforcing cold air
    will increase winds behind the front in the northern Gulf
    Fri night and Sat.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The surface pressure gradient between high pressure
    north of the area and the comparatively lower surface
    pressure in Colombia and Panama is supporting moderate
    to fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near
    the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from this
    morning shows 20 to 25 kt winds in this area.

    High pressure centered south of Bermuda will maintain
    fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean
    today, before winds and seas gradually diminish Thu
    and Fri as high pressure shifts eastward. These
    conditions are expected to persist through the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb low
    pressure near 35N60W to the Bahamas near 24N77W, where
    it becomes stationary. The stationary front continues
    to the western coast of Cuba near 23N84W. Scattered
    showers are observed and behind the frontal boundary
    from 27N to 31N between the coast of Florida and 70W.
    An additional area of scattered showers is noted from
    27N to 32N and between 55W and 65W, moving east.

    A stationary front is analyzed across much of the
    subtropical Atlantic from 31N38W to 23N65W. Isolated
    showers are noted along the frontal boundary. A ridge
    of high pressure is northeast of the stationary front,
    and a 1033 mb high is centered near 35N16W. Broad
    anticyclonic surface wind flow covers the Atlantic
    Ocean north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
    across 06N-23N between 17W to the Lesser Antilles near
    59W. An area of fresh to strong is also noted to the
    northeast of the Canary Islands from 16N-22N between 16W-21W.

    The weak cold front in the western Atlantic across the
    northern Bahamas to the northern coast of Cuba will stall
    and dissipate this afternoon through tonight. A secondary
    cold front will push east of the area Fri. SW winds will
    increase north of the Bahamas Fri night ahead of a strong
    cold front, expected to move east of Florida on Sat.
    The front will reach from 31N73W across the Bahamas
    to central Cuba Sat night, and from 27N65W to the
    Windward Passage on Sun.

    $$
    MTorres/Mahoney
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Mar 6 03:02:00 2021
    953
    AXNT20 KNHC 052233
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2230 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W
    to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N61W to the coast of Brazil
    near 01S51W. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm on either
    sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf this evening, as
    a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak
    pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate,
    which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area.
    No significant convection is evident from radar or satellite data.

    A low pressure system is expected develop over the NW Gulf
    tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat
    evening. High pressure building behind the front will support
    strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late
    Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but
    no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry
    air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts
    moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while light to
    gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to moderate
    easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds noted within
    90 nm north of the Colombia coast. Scattered showers are also
    possible over the eastern Caribbean Sea near a weak surface
    trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of
    Colombia.

    The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to
    occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean
    through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A
    cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night
    through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras
    Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
    over the western Caribbean.

    Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
    expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
    association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
    Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
    of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
    Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
    northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
    refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
    more details.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 31N58W to 24N68W and then becomes
    stationary to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along
    and ahead of the front N of 23N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front
    with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds
    ahead of it.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
    influence of strong high pressure centered near the Azores. The
    associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and
    the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper
    level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to
    western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

    The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba
    early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front, then shift
    from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing
    low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to
    Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to
    near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the
    region through early next week. High pressure will build north of
    27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue
    night.

    $$
    ERA/JPC
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Mar 6 18:25:00 2021
    877
    AXNT20 KNHC 061159
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1100 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09N13.5W
    to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil
    near 02N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
    noted within 90 of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 40W and 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf, as a weak
    surface ridge persists across the region. The weak pressure
    gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate, which is
    keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area. A cold
    front extends from a 1015 mb low south of Louisiana and continues
    along southwest along the Texas coast into Mexico.

    Developing low pressure system across the NW Gulf will deepen
    and move E-SE across the Gulf through this evening. High pressure
    building behind the front will support strong east winds across
    the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weakening stationary front from eastern Cuba to the central
    Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate today. Fresh to occasionally
    strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun.
    Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night
    and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest
    Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from
    Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas
    will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean.

    Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
    expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
    association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
    Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
    of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
    Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
    northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
    refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
    more details.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 25N65W to eastern Cuba and will
    drift N and weaken today. Winds north of the front will shift
    easterly today, and increase north of 27N late. A developing low
    pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda Sat
    night through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale force
    winds. The low will drag a cold front across the region through
    early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon,
    supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

    $$
    TORRES/AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Mar 11 18:51:00 2021
    406
    AXNT20 KNHC 112200
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Fri Mar 12 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Locally heavy Rainfall over Hispaniola:

    A stationary front extends to the northern portions of
    Hispaniola. There are currently some showers noted over NW
    Hispaniola near the tail-end of the front with most convective
    activity north of the island. Abundant low level moisture
    associated with the front will continue to be transported across
    much of northern and interior portions of Hispaniola before the
    front begins to drift N tonight through Fri. Scattered to
    numerous showers embedded in the strong NE winds associated with
    the front could impact these areas this evening. Locally heavy
    rain and strong gusty winds are expected with some of these
    showers and will maintain the potential for flash flooding and
    river flooding, as well as landslides across higher elevations.
    Flood warnings and watches have been announced for several
    provinces, by the Weather Bureau of the Dominican Republic.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 08N13W
    to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 02S43W. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm N and
    90 nm S of the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
    Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds prevail across the
    Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the NE Gulf,
    and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters.

    Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift slowly
    eastward and support fresh to strong E winds over the southeast
    Gulf and the Florida Straits into Fri. Southeast return flow
    across the western Gulf will gradually expand across the entire
    Gulf through the weekend, becoming strong over the northwest Gulf
    Sat night. These winds diminish into early next week, as the
    next cold front stalls near the Texas coast Sun into Mon, before
    lifting north Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA

    See the Special Features section for more information concerning
    the heavy rainfall over Hispaniola.

    High pressure is centered near 33N72W. This area of high pressure
    is supporting fresh to strong winds across the Windward passage
    as well as the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted
    off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds over the
    remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range
    over the western half of the Caribbean and 4-6 ft over the
    eastern half.

    Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to
    support fresh to strong winds across the northwest and south-
    central Caribbean. This will diminish slightly by Sat, but pulses
    of fresh to strong winds will persist through the Windward
    Passage, south of Hispaniola, and off Colombia into early next
    week. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward
    and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater through Fri
    night in mixed NW swell and E wind waves.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from low pres near 34N44W to 23N61W, then
    stationary to just north of Hispaniola. High pressure is centered
    north of the area near 33N72W. Fresh to strong winds prevail
    within 300 nm N of the front, where seas are in the 8-12 ft
    range. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the
    front, with seas of 5-8 ft over the open waters. Moderate to
    fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are elsewhere across the
    discussion waters.

    For the forecast west of 65W, The stationary front is expected
    to drift northward and meander through tonight before dissipating
    early Fri. Strong high pressure north of the front will support
    fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell
    south of 28N through Fri evening. Another cold front will move
    southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida
    Sat night through Sun, sinking southward to along roughly 25N Mon
    night and Tue.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Mar 13 09:58:00 2021
    125
    AXNT20 KNHC 131025 RRA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends along the coast of Africa from 05N00W
    to 05N10W, then offshore to 05N17W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues
    from 03N26W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
    is noted south of 05N east of 13W. Scattered moderate convection
    is along the ITCZ between 24W and 30W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the
    northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across
    the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the NE Gulf,
    and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

    The ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift
    eastward and weaken through tonight. Southeast return flow over
    the western Gulf will slowly expand across the rest of the basin
    this weekend, becoming fresh to strong in the NW Gulf tonight.
    Winds will diminish into early next week, as a cold front stalls
    near the coast of Texas Sun through Mon night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA

    A ridge of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic.
    Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Windward Passage as well
    as just off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds
    prevail across the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds
    prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the western
    half of the Caribbean, except to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia.
    Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the eastern Caribbean.

    Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as a
    high pressure ridge north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses
    of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage
    and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong NE
    winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night through
    Wed night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A ridge of high pressure is across the west-central Atlantic. A
    cold front extends from 32N37W to 24N50W. A surface trough is
    analyzed north-northeast of the Virgin Islands.

    Scatterometer data within the past 12 hours showed strong NE
    winds centered near 23N62W, in association with the surface
    trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are evident elsewhere from
    21N to 24N between 61W and 72W. Seas across this area of higher
    winds are estimated to be 9 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
    prevail north of 28N across the central and western Atlantic
    Ocean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 20N. Seas are
    in the 7-9 ft range over the open waters south of 28N and west
    of 55W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range north of 28N and west of
    the front. East of the front and north of 20N, seas are in the 5
    to 8 ft range.

    Winds and seas will diminish west of 60W through Sun as the high
    pressure ridge in the west-central Atlantic weakens. A surface
    trough north of Puerto Rico will drift eastward during the next
    couple of days. A cold front will move southward between Bermuda
    and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing
    cold front will move south of 30N on Mon.

    $$
    Mundell
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Mar 13 19:00:00 2021
    492
    AXNT20 KNHC 132200
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic gale warning...A cold front associated with deepening
    low pressure over the Atlantic waters will move south of 30N on
    Mon. A large area of gale force winds will extends well southward
    of the low pressure area. These gale force winds are expected to
    reach along 31N between 50W and 65W in association with this
    front on Mon.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
    12N16W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 03N44W.
    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from
    01S-07N between 02W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is from
    01N- 04N between 20W-30W and from 03N-08N between 42W-51W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1026 mb high is over the northeast Gulf. Surface ridging
    extends westward across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds
    are over the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center, where
    seas are in the 1-2 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are over
    the SE Gulf, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh SE
    return flow is over the western Gulf, with seas of 4-6 ft. Mid
    and upper- level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin,
    leading to subsidence and relatively dry air.

    Southeast return flow over the western Gulf will slowly expand
    across the rest of the basin the remainder of the weekend,
    becoming fresh to locally strong in the NW and west- central Gulf
    tonight into Sun. A cold front will stall near the coast of
    Texas on Sun and move back inland by Sun night. Southerly return
    flow will increase again across the Gulf region Tue night and Wed
    ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the basin by Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A ridge of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic.
    Fresh to locally strong winds are noted just off the coast of
    Colombia and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds
    prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean west of 70W. Gentle trade
    winds prevail east of 70W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the
    western half of the Caribbean, and 4 to 5 ft over the eastern
    Caribbean. A mid-level ridge prevails over the western portion of
    the basin, with subsidence and relatively dry air. Some
    cloudiness and rain showers are noted from the southern Windward
    Islands extending westward to the ABC Islands.

    Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as a
    high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses of fresh
    to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south
    of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds are
    expected near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A ridge of high pressure is across the west-central Atlantic from
    a 1021 mb high near 29N51W to a 1025 mb high pressure near 29N77W.
    A surface trough extends NE of Puerto Rico from 25N60W to
    18.5N64.5W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are located within 180 nm
    to the north and northwest of the trough axis. Gentle
    anticyclonic winds are seen north of 25.5N along the ridge axis.
    Moderate NE winds cover the area of the Bahamas. Scattered
    showers and isolated tstorms extend NE from the northern portion
    of the aforementioned surface trough from 22N- 26N between 53W-
    62W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from 32N33W
    to 26.5N40W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the discussion
    waters east of 60W. Seas are 5-7 ft across most of the Atlantic,
    except 7-8 ft to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

    For the forecast west of 65W, winds and seas will diminish
    across the SW N Atlantic through Sun as a high pressure in the
    west-central Atlantic weakens. A surface trough located north of
    Puerto Rico will drift eastward during the next couple days. A
    cold front will move southward between Bermuda and northern
    Florida tonight and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing cold front will
    move south of 30N on Mon. Gale force winds are expected along 31N
    between 50W and 65W in association with this front on Mon.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Mar 14 09:21:00 2021
    569
    AXNT20 KNHC 140529
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0605 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic gale warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
    eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W winds
    in the S semicircle are anticipated to reach south of our 31N
    border between 50W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning. By
    late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds
    will have diminished to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to
    peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon
    night through Tue night.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
    12N17W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N48W.
    Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
    between 00N and 05N east of 25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1024 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf, near 29N95W. As seen in
    buoy and scatterometer data, there are E trades in the Florida
    Straits and SE winds in the W Gulf that are a fresh breeze.
    Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas peak near 5 ft in the
    W Gulf. No significant shower activity is present as subsident,
    upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf.

    Southeast return flow over the western Gulf will expand across
    the rest of the basin on Sun, becoming fresh to locally strong in
    the western Gulf. A cold front will stall near the coast of Texas
    on Sun and move back inland by Sun night. Southerly return flow
    will increase again across the Gulf region Tue night and Wed ahead
    of the next cold front pushing off the Texas coast by Wed. The
    front is expected to move across the Gulf on Thu and exit Thu
    night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weak ridge of high pressure is centered north of the Caribbean
    along 29N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
    pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is helping to promote fresh
    to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and fresh NE winds in
    the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Peak
    seas are only 5-6 ft in the W Caribbean. Scattered moderate
    convection is occurring in the SE Caribbean this evening, with no
    significant convection elsewhere.

    Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the region
    through Sun as a high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens.
    Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
    Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. By Tue,
    fresh to strong winds will build across the central Caribbean.
    Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
    at night through Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas
    northern border.

    A weak ridge of high pressure extends from a 1024 mb high
    centered offshore of NE Florida to a 1020 mb high near 28N50W. The
    resulting NE to E trades south of the ridge are moderate across
    the basin. A surface trough just north of Puerto Rico is analyzed
    from 20N66W to 24N60W. Winds just north of the trough are NE up to
    a fresh breeze. Farther northeast, another surface trough extends
    from 32N32W to 24N40W. A cold front is drapped along our N border
    from 32N65W to 32N80W, though peak winds in our AOR are weaker
    than a fresh breeze. Peak seas are 4-6 ft in association with the
    trough north of Puerto Rico and with the trough near 35W.
    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 12N
    west of 50W. Scattered showers are also present from 23N-27N
    between 55-60W in association with the surface trough. No other
    significant convection is occurring elewhere.

    Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the SW N Atlantic
    through Sun as a high pressure in the west-central Atlantic
    weakens. A surface trough located north of Puerto Rico will drift
    eastward during the next couple days. A cold front will move
    southward between Bermuda and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A
    stronger, reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon.
    Another cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on
    Thu night.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Mar 19 16:57:00 2021
    565
    AXNT20 KNHC 191751
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Mar 19 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N36W. No
    significant convection is occurring at this time.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from southwest Florida to
    the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate N-NE winds follow behind the
    front, becoming moderate to fresh in the western Gulf. Gentle
    southerly winds are ahead of the front in the Florida Straits.
    Seas range from 3-6 ft, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas
    are up to 8 ft.

    The cold front will move southeast of the basin by early this
    evening. Another front will move into the northeast Gulf early
    Sat, and will weaken as it moves across the eastern and central
    Gulf through late Sun. High pressure will build over the
    northeast Gulf early next week, supporting increased E to SE
    winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
    weak cold front may enter the far northwest Gulf late Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A surface trough extends from eastern Honduras SE across the
    southwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
    south-central Caribbean, reaching near gale force off the coast
    of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are over the north-central
    Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
    winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 9-11
    ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 6-7 ft over the north-
    central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western
    Caribbean.

    A cold front currently moving through the southeast Gulf will
    move through the Yucatan Channel tonight before stalling and
    dissipating over the far northwest Gulf through late Sat. Large
    northerly swell east of the Leeward Islands will subside through
    tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from
    32N73W to Miami, FL. ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong W winds
    behind the front, with strong S winds within 180 nm ahead of the
    front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 80 nm east
    of the front. Seas over this area are in the 7-12 ft range. A
    stationary front extends from 32N33W to the Leeward Islands
    where the tail end of the front is dissipating. Fresh to strong
    NE winds are behind the front to 50W, and north of 27N.
    Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with decaying seas
    in the 6-9 ft range.

    The cold front will stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by early
    Sat. A second front will move into the waters off northeast
    Florida early Sat, and move into the Straits of Florida by early
    Sun as the first front dissipates. The second front will move
    farther east and dissipate through Mon as low pressure
    developing along the front lifts north of the area.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Mar 23 15:33:00 2021
    540
    AXNT20 KNHC 231710
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
    07N12W to 01N17W to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from 00N23W to
    02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the
    monsoon
    trough and east of 20W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends across the eastern Gulf waters, while a
    weak low and surface trough are over South Florida. To the north,
    the tail end of a warm front extends from 30N89W to 29N87W. A pre-
    frontal trough extends from 30N94W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted along the trough over the eastern half of the
    trough. To the southwest, a 1004 mb surface low is centered near
    22N97W. The pressure gradient generated across the basin is
    supporting fresh to strong winds over much of the waters west of
    89W, while gentle to moderate winds are noted east of 89W. Seas are
    in the 5-7 ft range west of 90W, and 2-4 ft east of 90W.

    The surface ridge will continue supporting increasing SE winds
    and building seas over the western and central Gulf through midweek.
    A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Thu, then stall
    and weaken over the central Gulf Fri into this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weak surface ridge prevails north of the area. The resultant
    weak gradient is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the south
    central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are
    in the 4-6 ft range over much of the Caribbean waters east of 80W.
    Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the W Caribbean.

    High pressure will build over the western Atlantic
    through late week. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the
    south-central Caribbean, with gale-force winds likely pulsing
    each night near the coast of Colombia starting on Thu night into
    the weekend. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the
    NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through
    Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near
    27N79W. A surface trough extends for the low to a 1012 mb low
    centered near 33N76W. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Gentle to
    moderate winds are noted off the coast of NE Florida, with gentle to
    moderate winds elsewhere west of 60W. NE swell continues off the
    coast of NE Florida, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Elsewhere,
    seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters west of 60W. East
    of 60W, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft
    range north of 28N between 45-55W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will build
    westward across the northern waters through midweek and persist
    into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the
    southern waters later this week as the ridge builds. NE swell will
    subside off the coast of NE Florida today. No other significant
    swell is expected to propagate into the area through the remainder
    of the week.

    $$
    ERA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Mar 28 17:11:00 2021
    216
    AXNT20 KNHC 281745
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
    central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
    lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
    fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
    pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
    hours. These conditions are expected to continue through at least
    the middle of the week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the
    late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds.

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is entering the extreme
    northwestern Gulf of Mexico as of this morning. As the front
    moves SE across the area, NW winds reaching gale- force are
    expected to develop S of 24N west of the front this afternoon and
    continue through Monday morning. Seas will range between 8-12 ft
    with the strongest winds.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    near 09N14W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W to 02S37W.
    Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S
    to 06N E of 27W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please refer the section above for details on the Gale Warning
    currently in effect.

    A cold front extends from 21N94W to 27N97W, moving southeastward.
    Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are occurring NW of
    this front. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms
    are noted within 90 n mi of the front. A surface ridge extends
    from the Atlantic and across the eastern two-thirds of the basin
    supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the area.
    Patchy dense fog is still noted over portions of the extreme
    western Gulf to the south of the cold front.

    Fresh to strong winds will occur near and to the NW of the
    Yucatan peninsula into the early morning hours due to local
    effects. The cold front will continue to progress SW and winds
    will reach minimal gale force this afternoon through tonight near
    the Tampico area, with seas building up to 12 ft. The front will
    extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on Mon
    afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward Mon
    night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move off
    the Texas coast by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected
    behind the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
    Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

    Latest scatterometer data depicts near-gale-force winds across
    the south-central Caribbean within 90 nm of the Colombia coast.
    Fresh to strong trades are noted across much of the central
    Caribbean, the approach to the WindWard Passage, and southwest of
    Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the
    basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean,
    except 9-13 ft offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the
    5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the
    region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind
    flow.

    High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to
    support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean
    through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force
    near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will
    prevail elsewhere south of 18N and E of 80W. Fresh to strong
    winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon,
    and in the Windward Passage through Tue night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin inside the
    discussion area, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 30N37W.
    Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 24N W of 25W with
    seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds
    are N of 24N and W of 25W with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Over
    the extreme eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is centered near the
    Canary Islands at 30N18W. Isolated moderate convection is within
    120 n mi of the low. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds are noted N
    of 25N and E of 25W.

    A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
    coast tonight, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon,
    stall and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then lift
    northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of
    the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage
    mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast
    to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu.

    $$
    Latto
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Mar 29 13:24:00 2021
    087
    AXNT20 KNHC 291744
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
    central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
    lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
    fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
    pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
    hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu
    night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early
    morning hours with the gale force winds.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to
    04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02S43W. Scattered
    Showers and thunderstorms are noted within 300 nm on either
    sides of the boundaries, with moderate convection concentrated
    from the Equator to 05N between 20W-30W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from 27N82W to 25N93W, then transitions to
    a stationary front to 18N94W. Scattered showers prevailed along
    the front. Strong NW near-gale force winds are noted over the
    western Gulf from the Bay of Campeche west of 94W and from
    25N-27N and west of 90W. A surface trough is noted ahead of the
    front in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 23N90W. Light
    to gentle variable winds are noted southeast of the front across
    the remainder of the area.

    The cold front moving across the northern Gulf, will continue
    to move southeast today. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and
    building seas behind the front will begin to dissipate this
    afternoon. The front will extend from central Florida to central
    Bay of Campeche this afternoon, then lift as a warm front
    tonight. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed
    evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front with
    near gale-force winds near Tampico and Veracruz.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
    Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

    Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly trades
    across central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail
    elsewhere. Fresh winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras
    and across the approach to the WindWard Passage. Seas are in the
    8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest offshore of
    northern Colombia, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather
    conditions prevail across the region, with quick-moving showers
    embedded in the trade wind flow.

    High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh
    to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the
    forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
    of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
    across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are expected
    across the Windward Passage through Wed night. Winds will increase
    fresh to strong as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Passage
    Thu night into Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front is entering the western Atlantic, extending from
    31N73W to 28N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
    along and in the vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface
    ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
    1025 mb high centered near 26N43W. Another cold front enters the
    Forecast area from 31N38W to 31N58W. Moderate to fresh easterly
    winds prevail S of 25N with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle
    to locally moderate NE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to
    6 ft range. A 1011 mb low is centered over the Canary Islands
    near 29N17W.

    The cold front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida this
    afternoon, stall and lift northward tonight. Moderate to fresh
    winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds
    near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night.
    Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night
    into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh
    to strong winds with building seas are expected in the wake of the
    front.

    $$
    Torres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Mar 30 15:52:00 2021
    721
    AXNT20 KNHC 301757
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
    the Texas coast by early Wed evening and will move quickly
    across the entire basin by noon Thu. Behind the front, strong to
    near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the
    northern and western Gulf, with frequent gusts to gale force
    offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle Wed night
    into Thu morning. Gale force winds will develop near Tampico,
    Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by
    Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience seas of 10-12 ft
    on Thursday, behind the front.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient prevails
    across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north
    of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This
    gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds
    offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the
    overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected
    to continue through Wed night. Seas will peak around 13 ft
    during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force
    winds.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
    11N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N39W.
    Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted within 150 nm
    on either side of the boundaries.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A warm front extends across the northern Gulf Coast from the
    Florida Big Bend to New Orleans to Houston. Scattered showers
    and tstorms are near the boundary over northern Florida between
    Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Most of the precipitation has
    exited the Gulf waters, except for an isolated shower or two
    near the coast of the Florida Panhandle. The latest ASCAT data
    pass shows mainly moderate SE winds across most of the Gulf of
    Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the NE
    Gulf.

    For the forecast, see the Special Features section above
    regarding strong to gale force winds Wed night and Thu behind a
    strong cold front. Winds across the Gulf will then diminish by
    the weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. See
    above.

    Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate showers and tstorms
    along the eastern border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, extending
    for 60 nm into the SW Caribbean. No significant areas of
    precipitation are seen elsewhere. The latest ASCAT data pass
    shows strong trades across the central Caribbean between
    67W-79W, south of 18N, with fresh trades elsewhere from the
    Lesser Antilles to the coast of Nicaragua. Near-gale force winds
    are seen within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, south of 13N
    and east of 77.5W. Moderate trades are in the NW Caribbean,
    except for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 8-11
    ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, 5-8 ft in the E
    Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the
    extreme NW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, high pressure across the Atlantic will
    continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the
    south-central Caribbean through the 5-day forecast period, with
    winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight
    and Wed night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across
    the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are
    expected across the Windward Passage through Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N59W to 30N70W. The
    front transitions to a warm front from 30N70W to St. Augustine
    Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the
    warm front. The front will lift north of the area today. 1028 mb
    high pressure centered near 30N54W extends surface ridging to
    the NW Bahamas. The latest ASCAT data pass shows gentle to
    moderate winds prevailing from 25N to the front, between
    50W-80W. Fresh trades extend south of 24N to the Greater
    Antilles. Seas of 4-8 ft prevail across the W Atlantic.

    For the forecast, the high pressure ridge over the western
    Atlantic will build along 29N over the next day or so. Moderate
    to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to
    strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through
    Thu night. A cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed
    night into Thu. The front will extend from near Bermuda to
    western Cuba on Fri, and from 32N61W to central Cuba Sat. Fresh
    to strong winds with seas building to 7-10 ft are expected in
    the wake of the front.

    Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N26W to 26N31W to
    24N39W to 24N47W. ASCAT shows fresh to strong winds on both
    sides of the front, north of 26N between 24W-38W. Fresh to
    strong trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 06N-21N
    between 35W-60W. Seas of 12-17 ft in large NW-N swell will
    affect waters north of 26N between 23W-38W through Wed morning.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Mar 31 14:12:00 2021
    633
    AXNT20 KNHC 311738
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Mar 31 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A late season and strong cold front
    will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon and move quickly
    across the entire basin through Thu. Behind the front, strong to
    near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the
    northern and western Gulf, including frequent gusts to gale force
    offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle tonight
    through Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico,
    Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by
    Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience wave heights in the
    range of 9-13 ft on Thu behind the cold front. This cold front
    will also bring a relief of the summer like temperatures in south
    Florida this upcoming weekend. Winds will diminish across the region
    Fri and Sat.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient remains over
    the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the
    Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia. This
    gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds offshore
    of northern Colombia, pulsing to minimal gale-force at times
    during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions
    are expected to continue through Thu morning. Wave heights are
    forecast to peak around 13 to 14 ft during the period of gale-
    force winds.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
    08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to
    01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
    N of the ITCZ axis W of 35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico, near
    the coast of Mexico due to strong cold front forecast to move
    across the Gulf waters. A Gale Warning is also in effect for
    frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal waters from southern
    Texas to the western panhandle of Florida where gusty winds of
    40-45 kt are expected. Please, see the Special Feature section for
    more details.

    A weak ridge dominate the Gulf waters producing fresh E-SE winds
    in the Straits of Florida based on recent satellite derived winds,
    and gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft
    across the basin based on altimeter data.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
    the coast of Colombia. Please, see the Special Feature section for
    more details.

    A recent scatterometer pass shows a large area of 30 kt winds
    near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong winds across the
    central Caribbean, including the waters just south of Hispaniola.
    An area of NE-E winds of 25 kt is noted near Cabo Beata, Dominican
    Republic. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the eastern Caribbean
    with gentle to moderate winds over the NW part of the basin.
    Currently, seas range from 9-12 ft in the south-central to SW
    Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the E Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

    High pressure across the Atlantic will support fresh to strong
    trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri morning,
    with winds pulsing to gale-force at night near the coast of
    Colombia into early Thu morning. Fresh trade winds will prevail
    elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE
    winds are possible in the Windward Passage through Thu morning.

    Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is seen across
    the basin with low cloud streamers in the lee side of the Lesser
    Antilles.

    A relatively strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
    afternoon and move across the NW Caribbean Thu night followed by
    fresh to strong northerly winds. Seas are forecast to build to
    8-10 ft in the Yucatan Channel by Thu night. The front will reach
    from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Fri, and from eastern
    Cuba to the coast of NE Honduras by Sat morning. Expect fresh to
    strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage by
    late Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N40W than extends
    westward to near 29N50W to 30N62W. A band of mainly low clouds
    with possible showers is associated with the front. Another cold
    front crosses the Canary Islands and extends SW to near 22N25W
    where a shearline continues to 20N45W. A strong 1004 mb low
    pressure system is centered to the NW of the Madeira Islands near
    35N19W, with fresh to strong winds depicted in scatterometer data
    in the south semicircle of the low, north of 29N between 16W and
    22W. The low in the eastern Atlantic will shift northeastward and
    weaken through Thu.

    High pressure will prevail north of 32N through Thu morning. A
    cold front will move east of northern Florida early Thu morning,
    extend from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to
    eastern Cuba on Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building
    seas are expected in the wake of the front.

    $$
    GR
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Apr 1 14:51:00 2021
    053
    AXNT20 KNHC 011728
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Apr 1 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1630 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends just
    north of Tampa Florida near 28N82W to the coast of E Mexico near
    22N97W. Observations from KMIS and KGRY oil platforms this morning
    are indicating NE winds up to 40 kt at elevated anemometer
    heights in the N central Gulf. Peak sustained winds at the surface
    are near gale with frequent gusts to gale force. Buoy 42395 in the
    central Gulf is reporting seas of 10 ft. Strong to near-gale
    force N to NE winds are expected to continue north of the cold
    front today, with frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal
    waters of Texas eastward to the panhandle of Florida. Sustained gale-
    force NW to N winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico late this
    afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Wave heights in the
    central Gulf will be up to 12 ft today and tonight before
    diminishing on Fri.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
    10N14W to 06N15W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N15W to 00N47W.
    Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of
    04N west of 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
    05N between 12W and 18W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning is in effect frequent gusts to gale force in the
    coastal waters from southern Texas to the western panhandle of
    Florida as well as gale force sustain winds for the western Gulf
    of Mexico near Tampico, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
    section for more details.

    Elsewhere south of the cold front, scatterometer data this
    morning shows gentle to moderate NE winds prevailing. A weak
    surface trough is present in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Seas south of
    the cold front are up to 5 ft, highest in the SW Gulf. Scattered
    showers are present within 60 nmi of the cold front.

    The cold front will move rapidly SE across the remainder of the
    Gulf waters through tonight. Strong winds, frequent gusts to gale
    force, and building seas are expected behind the front today, with
    gale-force winds likely near the coast of Mexico late this
    afternoon. Winds will diminish across the region Fri and Sat.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean
    between the Bermuda High and a 1006 mb low over northern Colombia
    is producing strong to near-gale NE to E trades. Seas are up to
    12 ft in the area of strongest winds. A small area of strong E
    trades likely is also occurring just south of Hispaniola with seas
    to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, NE to E trades are
    moderate to fresh with seas 5 to 7 ft. No significant deep
    convection is occurring today over the Caribbean though scattered
    showers are noted in the NW Caribbean and just south of
    Hispaniola.

    A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel
    tonight, then stall and dissipate across the NW Caribbean through
    Sat. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong
    trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri, with the
    highest winds near the Colombia coast. Fresh trade winds will
    prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N77W to near Cape Canaveral Florida
    near 29N81W. NW winds behind the front are moderate to strong,
    while SW winds ahead of the front are fresh to moderate. Seas are
    currently 4 to 5 ft behind the front, but building quickly.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 72W
    and 78W in association with a pre-frontal trough, which extends
    from 31N75W to 24N81W.

    The cold front will extend from Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri,
    from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from
    23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N
    winds and building seas are expected in association with the cold
    front.

    Farther east a cold front extends from 32N34W west-southwestward
    to 26N60W where it transitions to a stationary front to 31N64W. SW
    winds north of 29N ahead of the front are moderate to strong,
    while NW veering to NE winds are only fresh to moderate behind the
    front. A secondary cold front extends from 32N38W to 30N46W. Seas
    of 8 to 10 ft are occurring north of 28N east of 50W mainly in NW
    swell. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nmi of these
    frontal boundaries. A large extratropical cyclone is expected to
    move near our northern border producing strong to near gale E
    winds and seas near 15 ft north of 27N east of 50W Fri and Sat
    before diminishing Sun.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Apr 2 06:55:00 2021
    762
    AXNT20 KNHC 020943
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Fri Apr 2 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near the
    border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ
    axis continues from 06N17W to 00N31W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-03N between 13W-
    18W, within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-39W, and from
    01N-08N between 39W-53W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A strong late-season cold front is in the process of exiting the
    basin, extending from northwest Cuba to just south of the Yucatan
    Channel to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the southwest Gulf of
    Mexico near 19N96W. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data showed gale
    force winds offshore of Mexico south of 24N with fresh to strong
    northerly winds elsewhere behind the front, however gale force
    winds have diminished a few hours ago. Seas are mainly 7-11 ft
    across the basin in the wake of the front, with 4-6 ft seas ahead
    of the front in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

    The cold front will shift completely southeast of the basin early
    today. Fresh to strong winds and large seas behind the front will
    diminish across the region later today through Sat. High pressure
    will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early
    next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean Sea, extending
    from western Cuba near 23N82W to just south of the Yucatan
    Peninsula to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. An earlier
    ASCAT scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong northerly winds
    already arriving behind the front, with seas up to 8 ft near the
    Yucatan Channel.

    A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean
    between high pressure east of Bermuda and a 1006 mb low over
    northern Colombia is producing strong to near-gale force NE to E
    trades in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are up to 9-10 ft in
    the area of the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh trades are
    noted elsewhere in the Caribbean sea, except light and variable
    winds are mainly north of 18N between Haiti and 79W. Seas are 5-7
    ft in the north-central and eastern Caribbean with mainly 3-5 ft
    seas in the northwest Caribbean ahead of the front. No significant
    deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean waters, but
    patches of scattered showers are possible in the southwest and
    south-central Caribbean, and deep convection is noted over inland
    portions of northern Colombia.

    The cold front will move across the northwest Caribbean today,
    then stall and dissipate across the northwest Caribbean through
    Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in
    the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage
    through the weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
    fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
    early next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast.
    Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the
    east and central Caribbean.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N73W to 23N81W. A pre-frontal trough
    is north of 24N within 30 nm ahead of the cold front. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are possible north of 24N within 60-120
    nm ahead of both features. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data
    showed fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, along
    with 7-9 ft seas. A 1022 mb high pressure center is noted east of
    Bermuda near 33N55W with a ridge axis extending southwest to the
    southeast Bahamas.

    The cold front will extend from Bermuda to central Cuba by this
    evening, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sat afternoon, then stall and
    weaken from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to
    strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected in association
    with the cold front. High pressure will settle across the region
    early next week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast.

    Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N32W west-southwestward
    to 24N52W where it transitions to a stationary front and extends
    northwestward to near 27N59W. Fresh SW winds prevail ahead of the
    front, with fresh to strong winds moving south of 30N as a large
    extratropical cyclone north of the area moves closer to the area.
    Building northerly seas in the 8-11 ft range associated with this
    system continue to propagate southward to 26N and east of 51W.
    Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nm on either side of
    the front. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail south
    of 20N along with 7-9 ft seas in old northerly swell, with gentle
    to moderate anticyclonic winds noted from 22N-25N under a ridge
    axis with extends across that area ahead of the cold front. The
    large extratropical cyclone is expected to move closer to 32N and
    will shift an area of strong to near gale winds and building seas
    to 16 ft north of 27N and east of 50W Fri and Sat before
    diminishing Sun.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 3 08:09:00 2021
    436
    AXNT20 KNHC 030915
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0850 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near the border
    of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ
    continues from 06N19W to 02S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-07N between 11W-
    14W, from 03N-05N between 14W-17W, from 02N-04N between 31W-39W,
    and from 01S-04N between 39W-48W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley with a
    ridge axis extending from the North Carolina Piedmont through the
    high to northeast Texas. NE-E flow dominates the eastern half of
    the Gulf under the ridging, with E-SE flow across the western half
    of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds linger in the southeast Gulf in
    the wake of a strong, late-season cold front now well southeast of
    the basin, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except south
    of 26N and west of 94W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in NE swell
    across the southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 3-6 ft range
    elsewhere.

    Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf
    will gradually diminish and subside through early Sun. High
    pressure will build in and prevail into the middle of next week.
    Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
    night Sun night through early next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.
    Isolated to widely scattered showers are noted north of 16N and
    west of 73W. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data indicated fresh to
    strong N-NE winds west of the cold front, along with seas in the
    5-8 ft range, highest south of the Yucatan Channel.

    A surface trough extends across northern Colombia to the
    Colombia-Panama border and beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
    Deep convection is noted across northern and western Colombia
    producing frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. Please
    refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local
    meteorological offices for more details.

    Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean
    due to a tight pressure gradient between the trough over northern
    Colombia and high pressure ridging northeast of the basin.
    Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the
    basin southeast of the cold front, except variable 5-10 kt winds
    across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 4-7
    ft range southeast of the cold front, except 3 ft or less across
    the approach to the Windward Passage.

    The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border later today where it will stall and
    gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds
    will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of Cuba and across
    the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. High
    pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds
    in the south-central Caribbean through early next week, with the
    highest winds near the Colombia coast.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos with a
    pre-frontal trough north of 24N within 60-75 nm ahead of the
    front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60-90
    nm ahead of the trough, with rain possible west of the trough to
    90 nm west of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are west
    of the front along with 7-11 ft seas in NE swell northeast of the
    Bahamas. Gentle to moderate southerly return flow is east of the
    cold front outside of any convection.

    The cold front will stall later in the weekend over the southeast
    waters and across Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and
    building seas are expected in association with the cold front.
    High pressure will settle across the region early next week with
    more tranquil marine conditions forecast.

    Over the central and eastern Atlantic, a ridge of high pressure
    extends from 32N53W to 26N50W to 22N35W. Light to gentle
    anticyclonic winds are within 120 nm on either side of the ridge
    axis. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail south of the
    ridge axis, along with seas in the 6-8 ft range in old, decaying
    northerly swell. East of the ridge axis, a complex, gale-force
    low pressure system is located north of the discussion waters.
    Several troughs continue to rotate around the system and across
    the discussion waters north of 20N and east of 50W. Fresh to
    strong winds are occurring north of 27N and east of 48W, with
    large seas of 8-15 ft in northerly swell across the same area.
    Gale-force winds are forecast to remain north of 32N while the
    system lingers through the weekend.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 3 16:10:00 2021
    739
    AXNT20 KNHC 031718
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Atlantic Gale Warning: A large extratropical low pressure system
    with a central pressure of 1000 mb is centered north of the
    discussion waters near 34N36W. An ASCAT pass from Saturday morning
    showed gale force W-NW winds north of 30.5N between 38W-39W.
    Strong to near gale force winds are elsewhere north of 27.5N
    between 33W-44W. Seas of 14-16 ft are analyzed to be occurring
    within the gale force wind area. The gales are forecast to end
    for the waters south of 31N very soon, by 03/1800 UTC. However,
    fresh to strong W winds and seas of 8-12 ft will continue north of
    28N and east of 45W through Sunday.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
    to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N24W to 01N46W.
    Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-07N
    between 13W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and
    within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-46W. Scattered moderate
    convection is also seen within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil from
    03S-04N between 42W-50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure of 1033 mb is centered over the southern Appalachian
    Mountains with a ridge axis extending from western North Carolina
    to east Texas. Moderate E flow prevails over the western half of
    the Gulf. Strong NE-E winds are found in the SE Gulf and Florida
    Straits, in the wake of the strong, late-season cold front that
    passed the area Thursday night, that is now well southeast of the
    basin. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in NE swell across the
    southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 3-5 ft range for the
    northwest half of the Gulf.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the
    southeast Gulf will gradually diminish and subside through early
    Sun. High pressure will prevail into the middle of next week.
    Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
    night Sun night through early next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N75W to the western
    tip of Jamaica. A stationary front continues from the western tip
    of Jamaica to NE Honduras near 15.5N84W. A recent ASCAT data pass
    from late Saturday morning shows strong to locally near gale
    force NE winds behind the front near the Cayman Islands, in the
    lee of Cuba and northwest of Jamaica. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
    are elsewhere behind the front from the Yucatan Channel to
    Honduras. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the NW Caribbean behind
    the front. Isolated showers are near the front near the Windward
    Passage, Jamaica, and over northern Honduras.

    Elsewhere across the Caribbean, scattered showers and isolated
    tstorms are seen just offshore near the Panama/Colombia border,
    mainly south of 11N between 76W-79W. A recent ASCAT pass shows
    fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate
    trades elsewhere. Seas average 4-6 ft across the eastern and
    central Caribbean, except up to 7 ft offshore NW Colombia.

    For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Windward
    Passage to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border later today where
    it will stall and gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh
    to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of
    Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the
    weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to
    strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through early
    next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale
    Warning over the north-central Atlantic Ocean.

    A cold front extends from 32N62W to 25N68W through the Turks and
    Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba near 20N75W, as of 03/1500 UTC. A
    pre-frontal surface trough is located about 75 nm ahead of the
    front, north of 21N. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
    tstorms are within 180 nm southeast of the cold front, mainly
    north of 21N and east of 71W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong
    N-NE winds for about 400-500 nm behind the front from Cuba to 32N,
    including the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh
    N-NE winds are outside of that area, offshore of central and
    northern Florida. Wave heights are 8-12 ft behind the front, and
    NE of the Bahamas. A NNW-SSE oriented surface ridge axis extends
    through a 1022 mb high pressure near 30N53W to near 23N47W. Light
    to gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of this ridge axis.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front from 27N65W to the
    eastern tip of Cuba will stall Sun evening from 21N65W across
    Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are
    expected to last through Sun in the wake of the cold front. Strong
    winds are expected in and near the Windward Passage through Mon.
    High pressure will then settle across the region early next week
    with more tranquil marine conditions forecast.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Apr 4 08:21:00 2021
    332
    AXNT20 KNHC 040907
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0800 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 12N16W to
    06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N39W. Scattered
    moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-05N
    between 14W-29W, and from 03N-05N between 33W-36W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 00N-02N between 34W- 40W, from
    00N-03N between 41W-47W, and from 03N-05N between 44W- 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure is over Georgia with a ridge axis extending westward
    to the Texas Panhandle. Fresh to strong NE flow is noted in the
    southeast Gulf with moderate to fresh winds in the south-central
    Gulf. Moderate NE-E flow prevails elsewhere east of 90W, with
    moderate E-SE flow west of 90W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in
    the southeast Gulf in fresh NE swell, and mainly 3-5 ft
    elsewhere. Isolated showers are possible in the easterly wind
    flow.

    The fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf
    will gradually diminish and subside later this morning. High
    pressure will continue to extend across the basin through the
    middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the
    Yucatan Peninsula at night through Tue night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front extends from over northern Haiti to south of
    the Windward Passage to across Jamaica to near the Honduras-
    Nicaragua border. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near
    and west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are west of the
    front as well as across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas
    are in the 5-8 ft range west of the front.

    A surface trough extends from northern Colombia to the
    Colombia-Panama border beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across portions of
    central and northern Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and
    the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for
    more details.

    Fresh to strong winds are noted just offshore of northern Colombia
    and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
    elsewhere east of the stationary front. Seas are mainly in the 4-6
    ft range east of the stationary front, locally to 7 ft northwest
    of the coast of Colombia. Isolated to scattered showers are
    possible in the trade wind flow.

    The stationary front is expected to gradually dissipate through
    tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas west of the front
    will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the
    Windward Passage through the early part of the week. High pressure
    in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
    south-central Caribbean through Tue night, with the highest winds
    near the Colombia coast.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N65W to 20N72W. Scattered
    showers are possible near and on either side of the front. Fresh
    to strong N-NE winds are noted south of 27N and west of the
    front, with moderate to fresh mainly N-NE winds west of the front.
    Seas are 8-11 ft in NE swell west of the front to 76W and east of
    the Bahamas, and 5-8 ft west of 76W.

    A complex low pressure system north of the area extends a trough
    from 31N36W to 29N40W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
    north of 24N and east of 50W. A small area of fresh to strong
    winds remains near the trough, north of 29N between 33W-40W. Seas
    associated with this system of 8-12 ft in NE swell covers the
    waters north of 22N between 28W-48W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range
    elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical Atlantic
    waters. A ridge axis extends from 31N51W to 25N50W to 24N28W to
    31N19W with light anticyclonic winds under the ridge. Moderate to
    locally fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N.

    The cold front in the southwest north Atlantic will slowly move
    eastward, stalling and gradually dissipating from 22N65W to just
    northwest of the Mona Passage. Behind the cold front, fresh to
    strong NW to N winds and moderate seas are expected through this
    evening. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Windward
    Passage through Mon. High pressure will settle across the region
    during the early part of the week with more tranquil marine
    conditions forecast.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Apr 4 15:25:00 2021
    562
    AXNT20 KNHC 041716
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
    to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N27W to 01N38W to
    01N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    noted from 01N-05N between 10W-35W. Scattered moderate
    convection is seen from 02S-06N between 38W-52W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure of 1030 mb centered over Georgia and Alabama
    extends broad ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. A recent ASCAT
    data pass shows fresh NE-E winds over the SE Gulf, Florida
    Straits and Yucatan Channel, with gentle to moderate E flow
    elsewhere. Seas are currently 1-3 feet over the northern Gulf
    and 2-4 ft over the central Gulf, increasing to a maximum of 6
    ft near the Yucatan Channel. NOAA buoy 42003 near 25.9N 85.6W is
    reporting 17 kt winds and 3 ft seas. A buoy in the Florida
    Straits to the south of Key West is reporting 6 ft seas at 1500
    UTC this morning. In the SW Gulf, NOAA buoy 42055 near 22.1N
    93.9W has ENE winds 10 kt and 4 ft seas.

    For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will
    continue to extend across the basin through the middle of the
    week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan
    Peninsula at night through Tue night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front extends from the north coast of Haiti near
    20N72W to 17N77W to the Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W.
    Isolated to scattered showers are within 75 nm either side of
    the stationary front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong
    NE winds to the NW of the front. Within this area, strong to
    locally near gale force winds are seen in the Windward Passage
    and in the Lee of Cuba. Seas over the NW Caribbean are estimated
    to be 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, the ASCAT pass shows moderate
    trades in the E Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the
    south-central Caribbean. Seas are likely 3-5 ft in the eastern
    Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean.

    For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to gradually
    dissipate through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate
    seas west of the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and
    across the approach to the Windward Passage through the early
    part of the week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
    fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
    through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia
    coast.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N53W to 25N61W to the N
    coast of Haiti near 20N72W. Isolated to scattered showers are
    within 60 nm NW and within 120 nm SE of the front. A recent
    ASCAT data pass shows fresh to locally strong N-NE winds south
    of 26N and west of the front, with fresh N winds north of 26N
    between the front and 70W. Gentle anti-cyclonic flow prevails
    off the coast of northern and central Florida, north of 27N and
    west of 72W due to a 1030 mb high pressure centered over
    Georgia. Seas are 7-10 ft in N swell west of the front to 75W
    and east of the Bahamas, and 4-6 ft west of 76W.

    The cold front will slowly move eastward, stalling and gradually
    dissipating Mon night from 23N60W to just northwest of the Mona
    Passage. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and
    moderate seas are expected through this evening. Fresh to strong
    winds will continue near the Windward Passage through Mon. High
    pressure will settle across the western Atlantic during the
    early part of the week with more tranquil marine conditions
    forecast.

    East of 50W: A 1019 mb high is near 23N47W. A surface ridge with
    light to gentle winds extends eastward from the high to 23N33W
    to 29N20W to a 1020 mb high near 35N18W. North of the ridge, a
    large gale force low centered near 36N37W is producing fresh to
    strong west winds from 29N-32N between 31W-42W. Seas of 8-10 ft
    in N swell cover the waters north of 25N between 26W-42W. These
    conditions will migrate slowly E over the next 24 hours as the
    low north of the area drifts eastward. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
    range elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical
    Atlantic waters.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Apr 5 15:29:00 2021
    508
    AXNT20 KNHC 051800
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 11N15W to
    05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N35W to 00N50W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-06N between
    06W-20W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1024 mb high pressure center is located over northern Florida
    allowing for gentle to moderate return flow over most of the
    Gulf except for the Florida Straits and the entrance to the
    Yucatan Channel where winds are fresh. Additionally, a surface
    trough stretches from the 22N95W, through the Bay of Campeche,
    to southern Mexico. Winds W of the Yucatan Peninsula and E of
    the trough are moderate to fresh. Mostly fair weather conditions
    prevail across the basin under the influence of the ridge. Seas
    are 1-3 ft across the basin.

    The high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue
    to extend across the basin through the week. Fresh to strong
    winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through
    Tue night. Fresh return flow can be expected over the western
    Gulf through mid week, then diminishing through late week as the
    high pressure shifts east ahead of a weak cold front moving
    through Texas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The latest scatterometer pass revealed fresh to strong NE-E
    winds over the central and northwestern Caribbean with seas
    of 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted within the
    Windward Passage and 70 nm off the coast of northeast Colombia.
    Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean, with
    seas of 3-5 ft. A few training showers are possible between
    Jamaica and Honduras in the wake of the recently dissipated
    stationary front.

    Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will persist
    in the lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward
    Passage into mid week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
    fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean
    through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia
    coast.


    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    High pressure over northern Florida is allowing for gentle NW
    becoming NE winds over the northern Bahamas. A cold front enters
    the discussion area near 32N45W stretching southwestward to
    23N60W where the front becomes stationary to the northern coast
    of Hispanola. Scatterometer data reveals gentle to moderate NW
    winds behind the cold front, while behind the stationary front
    fresh to strong NE winds are S of 25N. Scattered showers may
    still be along and ahead of the front north of 25N. Seas in this
    area, N of 20N between 55W-75W are 6-8 ft and 9-12 ft north of
    30N.

    Fresh NE to E winds will persist south of 22N through tonight.
    The cold front will slowly move eastward today. High pressure
    will settle across the region through Tue with more tranquil
    marine conditions forecast. By midweek, another low pressure
    system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area
    east of 70W and north of 29N.

    Farther east, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails over
    the Atlantic east of the cold front. Seas east of 40W and north
    of 30N are 10-12 ft, with heights of 5-7 ft elsewhere.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Apr 6 15:25:00 2021
    726
    AXNT20 KNHC 061703
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Apr 6 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1630 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
    to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to the coast of Brazil
    at 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 02N
    between 40W and 45W as well as between 03N and 06N east of 22W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge of high pressure is located over the SE United States with
    gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the Gulf and seas
    of 2 to 4 ft. Fresh SE winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of
    Mexico are accompanied by 5 to 6 ft seas. No significant showers
    or deep convection are occurring over the Gulf today.

    High pressure over the Bahamas will linger through mid week as a
    cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley,
    before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. Fresh to strong
    winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula once again tonight.
    Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across
    the remainder of the Gulf through the end of the week, except
    gentle to moderate in the northeast Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A moderate pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high just north of
    the Bahamas and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong NE
    trades north of Colombia and moderate to fresh NE to E trades
    elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just north of
    Colombia and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. While no significant deep
    convection is occurring, scattered showers are present in the
    coastal waters of Panama, Honduras, and Belize.

    The high north of the basin will continue to support fresh to
    strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
    Passage, and off Colombia tonight. High pressure is forecast to
    shift east and gradually weaken allowing winds and seas to
    diminish across the basin by the middle of the week. This pattern
    will support fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by
    the end of the week into the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough from 30N42N to 19N65W splits a ridge extending
    from a 1022 mb high just north of the Bahamas to a 1019 mb high at
    24N37W. Scattered showers are present within 120 n mi of the
    trough north of 21N. With the highs/ridge weak, the NE to E trades
    equatorward of the ridge are generally light to fresh, except for
    some moderate NE winds over the Mona Passage and Windward Passage.
    North of the ridge, there are some fresh to moderate W winds north
    of 28N between 55W and 65W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, except
    for 8 to 10 ft in the fresh to moderate W winds.

    For the region east of 55W, a large extratropical low will
    approach our northern border and cause strong to near gale W winds
    north of 27N from tonight through at least Sat night. Seas will
    reach near 15 ft during this time.

    The surface trough will drift southeast across the Tropical N
    Atlantic to just northwest of Puerto Rico through tonight. Winds
    and seas south of 22N and west of the boundary will diminish and
    subside today. By midweek, low pressure system mentioned above could
    bring strong winds and building seas to the area east of 70W and
    north of 29N. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this
    weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Apr 8 16:21:00 2021
    235
    AXNT20 KNHC 081744
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Apr 8 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0740 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
    07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N35W to
    02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 260 nm south of the
    monsoon trough and ITCZ between 10W-25W, and from the Equator to
    06N between 31W to the coast of Brazil to 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure centered northeast of the central Bahamas extends
    westward into the northeast Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh
    return flow prevails across the basin, except under the high, and
    in the western Gulf where the pressure gradient is slightly
    weaker. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf, and 3-5 ft in
    the central and western Gulf. AS of 1500 UTC, a cold front is
    inching its way from eastern Texas to across the lower Mississippi
    Valley with an intense line of showers and strong thunderstorms
    ahead of it, currently extending to just inland of the northern
    Gulf coastline Pensacola, Florida near 30N86W to 27N91W. Areas of
    fog near the coast of southern Texas coastal waters have
    diminished.

    High pressure will gradually shift eastward as a cold front
    slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, then stalls
    over the northern Gulf by the weekend. Mainly moderate to fresh
    return flow will prevail through the remainder of the week,
    increasing to fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead
    of the front. The stalled front is expected to linger over the
    northern Gulf into early next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Broad mid to upper level south-southwest flow covers the basin
    which is advecting moisture across the region from the tropical
    eastern Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the eastern
    Pacific Ocean to south of the Gulf of Panama to across northern
    Colombia with clusters of scattered to numerous showers and
    Strong thunderstorms over central and northern Colombia. This
    Convection has frequent lightning with heavy rainfall also
    possible.

    High pressure is located north of the basin. A fairly weak
    pressure pattern prevails across the region with winds locally
    to fresh in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, across the
    Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of northern
    Colombia. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas
    are in the 2-4 ft range in the northwest and eastern Caribbean,
    and 3-5 ft in the central Caribbean, locally to 6 ft.

    High pressure north of the basin will gradually shift eastward
    through early next week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and
    building seas will develop by Fri night across the northwest
    Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel.
    Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop over
    the south-central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola this weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad gale force low pressure system is located north of the
    discussion waters and well northeast of Bermuda with associated
    fresh to strong winds extending southward to 27N between 47W-68W
    as seen in the scatterometer this morning. A cold front wraps
    around the low and into the area through 31N44W to 23N62W.
    Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible within 60n nm
    ahead of the front with higher gusts in any convection. Large
    NW-N swell with seas in the 8-15 ft range covers the waters from
    roughly north of 26N between 46W-69W, highest seas up to 17 ft
    north of 30N indicated by the recent altimeter.

    An elongated trough is located east of the front, from 26N41W to
    16N64W to the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh
    southerly winds are ahead of the trough north of 21N and E of
    44W, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
    extending from near Puerto Rico east-northeast within 300 nm on
    either side of the trough and west of 50W.

    High pressure is centered in the eastern Atlantic near 25N25W
    with a ridge axis extending from near the Canary Islands to just
    east to 48W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are south of the
    ridge axis, except for fresh to locally strong N-NE winds west of
    Africa to across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft
    range across the central and eastern Atlantic outside of the
    influence of the low pressure system mentioned above.

    A trough will linger from the central Atlantic to near Puerto
    Rico today. Northerly swell will move through the waters east of
    70W through this weekend. High pressure centered near 27N74W
    will gradually shift eastward through early next week. Winds and
    seas may increase offshore Florida this weekend ahead of a cold
    front that will move over the southeastern U.S.
    and eventually pass offshore early next week.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 10 09:34:00 2021
    610
    AXNT20 KNHC 101026
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
    island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is active, and continues
    to erupt. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume spreading
    east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly in an area bounded by
    12.5N59W to 13N61.5W to 13.5N61.5W to 15N58W back to 12.5N59W,
    which includes Barbados. Violent volcanic eruptions may occur
    suddenly without any warning. Volcanic ash may be reaching the
    ocean surface east-northeast of St. Vincent. Mariners should
    exercise caution, and report volcanic ash or floating debris to
    the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of
    Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
    06N19W to 02N32W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is noted from 02N-06N between 07W-21W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds cover most the Gulf of
    Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft. A large area of thunderstorms across
    coastal sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western
    panhandle of Florida extends into the near-shore waters of the
    northern Gulf, north of 29N between 86W and 92W. These storms are
    likely to push offshore later this morning, with strong gusty
    winds and frequent lightning possible in thunderstorms.

    Fresh southerly winds will prevail across the basin today ahead
    of cold front that will move into the NW Gulf later today, then
    stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico by
    Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the
    front are expected in the NE Gulf this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall
    advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

    Recent scatterometer data shows fresh trade winds in the east-
    central part of the Caribbean, and mostly gentle winds in the
    western Caribbean. Seas are 5-6 ft over most of the central and
    eastern Caribbean, and 3-4 ft in the western part of the basin.
    Isolated to scattered shower activity is noted across the SW
    Caribbean, south of 15N and west of 72W. Numerous showers are
    occurring over Costa Rica, including western Panama and parts of
    southern Nicaragua.

    Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend,
    including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh E winds and moderate seas
    are expected across the central Caribbean through Sun.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall
    advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

    1019 mb high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas near 28N72W is
    supporting mostly tranquil marine conditions across the western
    Atlantic and Bahamas, with gentle winds and 3-6 ft seas. Gentle
    to moderate trade winds prevail across the tropics in the central
    Atlantic. A large occluded gale-force low pressure system north
    of the area centered near 38N51W is producing a large area of
    strong westerly winds north of 26N between 40W-60W. Seas are 11-16
    ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system is affecting
    most of the central Atlantic. Two weak surface troughs are
    analyzed south of this low pressure system, from 28N43W to 22N58W,
    and from 23N44W to 17N54W. Isolated showers embedded in multi-
    layer broken to overcast clouds are noted from 21N to 31N between
    28W and 42W.

    Fresh southerly winds are expected this weekend in the Bahamas
    and east of Florida this weekend as a cold front approaches the
    western Atlantic. The front will move east of northern Florida on
    Mon, extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue, and move east of the
    forecast area on Wed.

    $$
    Mundell
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 10 17:25:00 2021
    280
    AXNT20 KNHC 102204
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Apr 11 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2145 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
    island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is active, and continues
    to erupt. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume
    spreading east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly in an area
    from 12N to 16N between 49W to 62W which includes Barbados.
    Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without any warning.
    Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east-northeast of
    St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report volcanic
    ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service by calling
    305-229-4424.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of
    Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from
    04N24W to 03N35W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is noted from 01N-09N between 11W-25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An outflow boundary from earlier strong thunderstorms is drapped
    over the NE Gulf from near Tampa, FL to 25N90W. New strong
    convection is developing along this boundary within 120 nm of the
    Florida coast. In addition, to the north of the outflow boundary,
    numerous moderate convection exists N of 26N and E of 87W. To the
    west, a cold front is stretching from the central Louisiana coast
    to just S of the Texas-Mexico border. Also, low pressure of 1002
    mb has developed near 22N96W. Fresh N wind is occurring behind the
    cold front, with fresh S winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle
    to moderate mainly SW winds occurring elsewhere. Seas N of 25N and
    E of 90W are 5 to 8 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

    Fresh southerly winds are forecast across the most of the basin
    tonight ahead of the cold front. The front will stall and weaken
    from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico by Sun night.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are
    expected in the NE Gulf this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
    Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

    Fresh trades are occurring over much of the central Caribbean and
    in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
    wind prevails. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except slightly higher where
    the fresh winds are occurring. Scattered thunderstorms continue
    off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

    Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean for the
    remainder of this weekend, including the Gulf of Honduras.
    Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected across
    the central Caribbean through Sun.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
    Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

    High-pressure ridging continues over most of the western and far
    eastern Atlantic. West of 60W, this is leading to gentle
    anticyclonic flow, 3 to 5 ft seas, and mainly tranquil marine
    conditions. However, an outflow boundary with gusty winds and
    moderate convection is moving off the north Florida coast this
    evening. Ahead of this boundary, fresh S winds have developed.

    A large occluded gale-force low pressure system north of the
    area centered near 37N48W is producing a large area of strong
    westerly winds north of 25N between 35W-55W. Seas are 11-16ft in
    this area. Northerly swell from this system is affecting most of
    the central Atlantic. A weak surface trough is analyzed south of
    this low pressure system, from 29N40W to 22N49W. Another surface
    trough is noted from 26N38W to 17N51W. Scattered moderate
    convection has developed within 120 nm on either side of this
    trough.

    Fresh southerly winds are expected in the Bahamas and east of
    Florida for the remainder of the weekend as a cold front
    approaches the western Atlantic. The front will move across
    Florida Mon, then extend from 30N60W to 21N75W on Tue, and move
    east of the forecast area on Wed. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft in
    the vicinity of the front.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Apr 11 17:07:00 2021
    365
    AXNT20 KNHC 112133
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Mon Apr 12 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2100 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
    island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is undergoing frequent
    eruptions. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume
    spreading well to the east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly
    in an area from 10N-18N between 40W-62W, which includes Barbados.
    Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without warning.
    Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east northeast of
    St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report
    volcanic ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service
    by calling 305-229-4424.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends southward from the coast of
    Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N22W, where it transitions to the
    ITCZ to 01N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within
    180 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-27W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Low pressure of 1009 mb has formed in the NE Gulf just S of the
    Florida Panhandle. A cold front extends SW from this low to just
    north of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough resides in the western
    Gulf from 25N92W to 21N97W. Another pre-frontal trough,
    accompanied by strong to severe thundertorms, stretches from near
    Fort Myers, Florida to 27N88W. Between the pre-frontal trough and
    cold front, numerous thundertorms, some strong, are ongoing. Very
    gusty wind to 45 kt and frequent lightning are hazards through
    much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the through, fresh SW
    winds prevail. North of the cold front, moderate to fresh mainly N
    winds are occurring, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere in the
    Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

    The cold front will move east, then stall out from central
    Florida to the Bay of Campeche Mon, and dissipate by Mon night.
    An upper- level trough will help generate scattered showers and
    thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf waters through this
    evening. Some of this activity may contain frequent lightning and
    strong gusty winds.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
    Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

    The latest surface analysis depicts a rather weak pressure
    gradient across the basin. Fresh trades prevail over most of the
    basin, while fresh to strong east-southeast winds in the Gulf of
    Honduras as well as the Yucatan Channel. Mainly fair weather
    conditions are in place across the basin. Wave heights are in the
    3-6 ft range, except for slightly higher wave heights of 5-7 ft in
    the central Caribbean area and within the Gulf of Honduras.

    For the forecast, fresh southeast winds will continue over the
    northwestern Caribbean through the period, while fresh to strong
    east to southeast winds continue in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds
    will pulse to strong speeds over a small area near the coast of
    Colombia during the afternoons and at night through Wed.
    Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh east winds will change
    little through Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
    Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

    A surface trough extends from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach,
    Florida. Along and to the northwest of this trough, numerous
    strong thunderstorms are occurring. These thunderstorms will bring
    a threat of frequent lightning and wind gusts to 50 kts for areas
    W of 72W and N of 24N, including the NW Bahamas and off the east
    coast of Florida. Ahead of the trough, N of 23N and E of 65W,
    fresh SW winds are occurring.

    For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds east of
    Florida will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front
    that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight. The front
    will reach from near 31N75W to east-central Florida early Mon,
    from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba
    Mon evening and the southeast waters by late Tue. The front will
    move east of the forecast waters on Wed as weak high pressure
    builds in behind it. Another cold front is expected to cross the
    northwest and north- central waters on Tue. Fresh to strong
    southwest winds are expected to precede this front. Scattered to
    numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are
    expected to push off the Florida coast through this evening.

    Farther east, a large area of fresh to strong west winds
    associated with a low pressure system north of our discussion area
    continues to affect waters north of 27N between 27W-45W. Seas are
    11-17 ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system, with
    seas in excess of 8 ft, is affecting most of the central Atlantic
    north of 21N between 26W-60W. South of the low, weak surface
    trough is analyzed from 28N37W to 18N60W. Another trough is noted
    from 28N30W to 17N50W. To the E of 45W, scattered moderate
    convection exists along both of these troughs. High pressure
    ridging and gentle anticyclonic flow dominates the waters both
    west and east of the troughs.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Apr 13 15:34:00 2021
    192
    AXNT20 KNHC 131717
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
    in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
    Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
    light emissions from its summit. It is possible that ash that was
    released earlier may be reaching the surface of the ocean, and
    low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are transiting
    the waters under the emitted ash advisory should exercise caution.
    Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris,
    are urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane
    Center, by calling 305-229-4424.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
    Guinea near 09N13W to 04N22W, where scatterometer data indicates
    that it transitions to the ITCZ near 42N22W and to the delta of
    the Amazon river near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is within 00N to 05N between 22W to 34W and
    scattered showers along the ITCZ between 34W to 49W. Seas range
    between 4 to 6 ft within 200 nm on either side of both boundaries.


    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Broken
    to overcast low clouds are along and inland the Texas coastal
    plains. Patches of fog, some dense, are over the NW Gulf. Latest
    ship obs and altimeter data show wave heights ranging between 2 to
    4 ft across the basin.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure has settled in over the
    area. This high pressure will shift eastward through Wed in
    response to an approaching cold front. The cold front will move
    across the northern Gulf Wed night, reach from north-central
    Florida to southern Texas Thu and become stationary and weaken
    through Fri night. Mainly moderate northeast to east winds will
    follow in behind the front. A stronger cold front is expected to
    move over the NW Gulf late Fri night, and reach from north-central
    Florida to the west- central Gulf by late Sat. Fresh to strong
    northeast winds will follow in behind this front.


    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from the western Atlantic across central
    Cuba into the western Caribbean Sea to 21N84W. The front is
    weakening with a few showers still lingering near the boundary.
    Further south, scattered showers are moving across Honduras and
    Nicaragua east to Hispaniola. Moderate easterly trades prevail
    with wave heights between 2 to 4 ft across the basin.

    On the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will continue over
    the far NW Caribbean through the period, except for pulsing strong
    winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, generally moderate to
    fresh trade winds will persist through this week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front is analyzed from near 30N57W to across central Cuba.
    Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, with scattered moderate
    convection are noted to the east of the front from 23N to 32N
    between 47W-60W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are noted ahead
    of the front with the latest ASCAT pass. Further east, a 1023 mb
    high pressure centered near 25N33W remains in control across the
    east with broad anticyclonic flow covering north of 26N.

    An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the
    island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners transiting the
    Tropical N Atlantic waters south of 15N between 43W-55W should be
    aware of the possibility for the existence of volcanic ash.

    For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward and pass east
    of the forecast waters on Wed. A secondary cold front or low
    pressure trough will cross the northern waters later today through
    early Wed, with strong winds and building seas expected N of 27N
    and E of 75W. Yet another cold front will move off the
    southeastern U.S. coast later this week and over the northern
    offshore waters Thu night and Fri, then stall north of the Bahamas
    this weekend.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Apr 14 13:07:00 2021
    013
    AXNT20 KNHC 141723
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
    in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
    Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
    occasional emissions from its summit. The volcano could
    erupt at any time with little notice. Ash may be reaching the
    surface of the ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced.
    Mariners who are transiting the waters near Saint Vincent should
    exercise caution. If you encounter volcanic ash or volcanic
    debris, please report the observation to the National Hurricane
    Center, at 305-229-4424.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N43W.
    Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 10W-22W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A weakening cold front extends across the eastern Gulf including
    the Florida Straits from 27N85W to 23N80W. The next frontal
    system is developing over the central Gulf states, with
    scattered to numerous moderate convection developing north of
    29N between 88W-93W. The remainder of the basin is relatively
    cloud-free. Latest scatterometer date depicts moderate to fresh
    southeasterly winds prevailing across the basin.

    The weak cold front will dissipate over the eastern and central
    Gulf later today. High pressure will prevail across the basin
    through Wed night. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf
    Thu, then stall and weaken on Fri. A stronger cold front will
    move into the Northwest Gulf on Sat, with strong northerly winds
    and building seas expected across the western Gulf this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
    on St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special Features section
    above for more details.

    A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters.
    Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the basin at this
    time, according to latest scatterometer data. Seas are 2 to 3
    ft across the northern Caribbean, including the Windward
    Passage, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

    Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
    through Sat, except pulsing locally to fresh to strong through
    the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of Colombia
    through mid week, then in the south-central Caribbean this
    weekend. SE winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Northwest
    Caribbean starting early Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are
    expected elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
    on the island of St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special
    Features section above for more details.

    A pair of cold fronts are moving across the western Atlantic
    waters. The primary cold front extends from a 1003 mb low near
    35N55W to 24N65W to 22N75W, then becomes weak from that point
    to 24N80W. To the east, another cold front extends from 31N51W
    to 24N58W to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered showers
    are noted along and within 200 nm east of this front, with fresh
    northerly winds prevailing west of it. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north
    of the secondary front, and 8-11 ft along the primary frontal
    boundary. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
    basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 29N29W. Seas
    are generally 5 to 8 ft across the remainder of the basin,
    except 3-4 north of the Greater Antilles.

    The weakening cold front north of Hispaniola and
    Puerto Rico will move eastward through early today. Fresh to
    strong northerly winds associated with reinforcing cold air north
    of the front and east of 70W will shift eastward today and
    weaken. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida
    into the northern waters by early Fri, then stall north of the
    Bahamas this weekend.

    $$

    ERA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Apr 16 17:28:00 2021
    482
    AXNT20 KNHC 161727
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Apr 16 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move
    off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of Mexico very early
    Saturday morning, between midnight and sunrise. The front will
    move southward across the basin bringing strong winds and
    building seas. An area of gale force northerly winds is
    expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area Saturday night,
    behind the front. Seas will build to 9 to 11 ft in that area.

    Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
    effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
    A new eruption occurred early this morning around 1000 UTC.
    GOES-16 Geocolor imagery at 1500 UTC this morning shows that
    this plume is mainly spreading from St. Vincent towards the west
    and northwest, over the eastern Caribbean, as far north as 15N,
    and as far west as 63W. Through this evening, the plume of
    volcanic ash is forecast to spread as far north as 17N and as
    far west as 65W before it begins to thin out tonight. The
    volcano remains in a very active state, and additional eruptions
    and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the
    nearby waters should exercise caution, and are encouraged to
    report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling
    305-229-4424.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
    of West Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 06N19W. The ITCZ
    continues from 06N19W to 03N26W to the coast of South America
    near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-07N
    between 10W-52W. Similar convection is seen from 03S-00N between
    33W-49W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
    Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

    A cold front extends from Cedar Key Florida westward to the
    28.5N88.5W, in the north-central Gulf, where it transitions to a
    warm front that extends to near Freeport Texas. Scattered
    moderate and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring along
    the coast of SE Louisiana and along the coast of the Florida
    Panhandle, which is just north of the frontal boundary. Strong N
    to NE winds are occurring in the convection. A recent ASCAT pass
    indicates that moderate E winds are elsewhere north of the front
    with moderate southerly winds south of the front, over the
    eastern half of the Gulf. A weak 1005 mb low is along a trough
    near Tuxpan Mexico. The trough extends along the coast from
    Veracruz to Tuxpan, then inland to 25N100W. East of that trough,
    fair weather prevails over the remainder of the SW and
    south-central Gulf. TPW imagery shows lower moisture content
    where the fair skies are located. GOES Geocolor imagery and
    coastal surface observations from Mexico suggest that smoke or
    haze is occurring over portions of the SW Gulf, mainly south of
    26N and west of 93W, potentially reducing visibility to 3-5
    miles. ASCAT shows fresh SE winds to the west of the Yucatan
    Peninsula, south of 22N and east of 94W. Seas are 3-5 feet from
    the central to SW Gulf, and 1-3 feet over the eastern Gulf.

    For the forecast, the front will remain over the northern Gulf
    into Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will
    stretch from the Florida Peninsula to Bay of Campeche by the end
    of the weekend. Behind the front, gales will develop offshore
    Tampico Mexico, Saturday night. Areas of smoke and haze in the
    western Gulf will reduce visibility at times today.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on St.
    Vincent. See the Special Features section above for details.

    A surface trough extends from 17.5N66W east-northeastward to
    beyond 20N58W. A line of broken clouds extends along the trough
    axis with possible isolated showers. This thin line of scattered
    to broken clouds continues WSW to near 16N77W with little
    fanfare. The East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered
    moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 12N between
    76W-85W, including over portions of NW Colombia, eastern Panama,
    NE Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. Expect periods of moderate to
    heavy rain to continue over portions of Panama and Costa Rica
    this afternoon before becoming lighter this evening. A recent
    ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean
    with moderate trades elsewhere, except for light to gentle winds
    south of Cuba to the Cayman Islands. Fresh SE winds are also
    likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail
    over much of the basin, except 1-3 ft south of Cuba to the
    Cayman Islands and Jamaica.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
    NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
    strong trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean Sun
    night through early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N71W to Daytona Beach Florida. A
    surface trough is from 30N74W to 28N77W. Well ahead of the
    front, scattered moderate convection is seen north of 28N
    between 65W-75W. Isolated moderate showers are noted near the
    surface trough and cold front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh
    to locally strong SW winds ahead of the front, mainly north of
    27N between 70W-78W, and mainly north of 29N between 62W-70W.
    Seas of 6-9 ft are present in the area of fresh to strong winds.
    The cold front will stall north of 28N through Sat then
    dissipate as it lifts northward through Sun. A surface ridge
    extends from a 1019 mb high pressure near 25N53W to 25N65W to
    24N78W near Andros Island Bahamas. Mostly gentle wind speeds are
    found from 18N-27N between 40W-80W, where seas are mainly in the
    4-7 ft range. High pressure will continue to dominate this same
    general area for the next few days.

    Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N38W to
    25N46W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front
    that continues to 23N49W. A surface trough continues from 23N49W
    to the NE Caribbean near 18N65W. Scattered moderate convection
    is along the cold front from 26N-28N between 41W-43W, and along
    the surface trough from 19N-21N between 55W-59W. A secondary
    cold front extends from 32N46W to 29N50W. Winds south of 30N are
    mainly gentle, but some fresh winds are noted north of 30N. The
    cold front from 32N38W to 25N46W will dissipate by early Sat. A
    1026 mb high is near 32N28W. This high pressure is expected to
    remain in the same general area during the next few days. Fresh
    to locally strong trade winds are noted from 07N-20N between the
    Cabo Verde Islands and 50W, where seas are 6-8 ft.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 17 10:00:00 2021
    013
    AXNT20 KNHC 170943
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0800 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0600 UTC, a cold front and an
    attendant 1008 mb low moved off the Texas coast into the Gulf of
    Mexico. The front will move southward across the basin bringing
    strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force northerly
    winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area tonight,
    behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft in that area, before
    winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday morning.

    Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
    effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
    The latest eruption occurred early yesterday morning around 1000
    UTC. GOES-16 Geocolor imagery from yesterday at 2100 UTC shows
    that the plume is becoming diffuse over the east central
    Caribbean. The volcano remains in a very active state, and
    additional eruptions and ash plumes are possible at any time.
    Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution,
    and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National
    Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
    of Guinea-Bissau in West Africa near 12N16W and continues
    southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
    02N32W to the coast of Brazil in South America near 00N45W.
    Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N- 07N between 07W-
    14W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
    Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

    A nearly stationary front along the northern Gulf coast connects
    with a 1009 mb low near 29N94W. To the west, a cold front extends
    along the Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are located north of 28N across the Gulf. Fresh NE
    winds are occurring along the Texas coast behind the front, with
    generally moderate SE winds elsewhere.

    The weak stationary front will remain over the northern Gulf
    into Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will
    stretch from near Tampa Bay, Florida to central Bay of Campeche
    by the end of the weekend. Behind the front, gales will develop
    offshore Tampico, Mexico by Saturday night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on St.
    Vincent. See the Special Features section above for details.

    Fresh trade winds prevail over the south-central and eastern
    Caribbean, with moderate trades in the north central Caribbean.
    Scatterometer data reveals an area of fresh to strong SE winds
    offshore of Honduras and Belize, with moderate SE winds
    elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are over
    most of the basin, except offshore of Colombia seas are up to 7
    ft.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
    NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
    strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
    Caribbean Sun night through early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A slowing cold front extends from near Bermuda to near Melbourne
    Florida. A few thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the Florida
    coast, along this cold front. Winds are moderate and W to the W
    of 70W with seas 3- 5 ft. For the forecast, the front move E but
    remain N of 28N this weekend. Another cold front will move off the
    SE U.S. coast Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate.

    Elsewhere, ridging from high pressure dominates supporting gentle
    to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N and west of 35W. Winds
    south of 20N are mainly fresh to locally strong southeasterlies
    with seas 6-8 ft. Seas north of 30N range from 7-9 ft.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 17 17:29:00 2021
    914
    AXNT20 KNHC 171756
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1200 UTC, a cold front and an
    attendant 1008 mb low moved off the Texas coast into the Gulf of
    Mexico. The front will move southward across the basin bringing
    strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force northerly
    winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area
    tonight, behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft in that
    area, before winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday morning.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
    of Guinea-Bissau in West Africa near 10N15W and continues
    southwestward to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to the
    coast of Brazil in South America near 00N47W. Scattered moderate
    to strong convection is seen 400 nm south of the monsoon trough
    between 10W-20W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
    the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
    Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

    As of 1545 UTC, a nearly stationary front over the Florida
    Peninsula transitions to a warm front near 29N86W and connects
    with a 1010 mb low south of the Louisiana coast near 29N91W. To
    the southwest, a cold front extends southward to near Tampico,
    Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located
    behind the front extending from South Texas northeast to central
    Louisiana near 29N90W. In the Bay of Campeche, an area of low
    pressure is centered near 21N96W with a surface trough extending
    from 22N94W to 19N97W. Scattered showers are noted in the
    vicinity of the surface trough. Fresh to strong with few gusts
    to gale force winds are occurring along the Texas coast behind
    the front, with generally moderate SE winds elsewhere. Seas
    ranged between 2 to 6 ft across the basin.

    A cold front currently moving across the Texas coastal waters
    will reach from near Panama City, Florida to 23N95W to the far
    southwest Bay of Campeche by this evening. Winds will briefly
    reach gale force near Tampico, Mexico tonight west of the front.
    The front will stall from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central
    Bay of Campeche by early next week.
    Looking ahead, reinforcing cool and dry air will push the front
    into the far southeast Gulf through mid-week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Current satellite imagery shows very little of ash cloud from
    the latest eruption of La Soufriere volcano on Saint Vincent
    yesterday morning. The ashfall advisory for the Caribbean waters
    west of the Windward Islands has been allowed to expire.
    Additional eruptions are possible at any time. The volcano
    remains in a continually active state, and additional eruptions
    and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the
    nearby waters should exercise caution, and are encouraged to
    report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling
    305-229-4424.

    Fresh trade winds prevail over the south-central and eastern
    Caribbean, with moderate trades in the north central Caribbean.
    Scatterometer data reveals an area of fresh to strong SE winds
    offshore of Honduras and Belize, with moderate SE winds
    elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are over
    most of the basin, except near the Gulf of Honduras with seas
    near 8 ft and seas up to 7 ft north of Venezuela near the ABC
    Islands.

    For the forecast, a ridge extends along 23N through western Cuba.
    Fresh to strong SE winds will persist north of central Honduras
    through Sun, between the ridge and lower pressure over the
    southwest Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will shift east ahead of a
    weak front moving into the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase
    over mainly the south-central Caribbean early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A slowing cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near
    31N73W to 29N76W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
    a second area of low pressure near Floridas Big Bend.
    Thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the Florida coast, along
    this boundary. A cold front extends southwest to the low
    southwest of Bermuda and remains north of 29N. At this time,
    scattered showers are seen out to 100 nm on either side of the
    boundary. Winds are moderate and W to the W of 70W with seas 3-5
    ft.

    Elsewhere, ridging from high pressure dominates supporting gentle
    to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N and west of 55W. Winds
    south of 20N are mainly fresh to locally strong southeasterlies
    with seas 6-8 ft. Seas north of 29N range from 7-9 ft. A surface
    trough is noted from 29N37W to 23N55W, with scattered moderate
    convection from 21N-26W between 45W to 56W.

    For the forecast, the boundary will fluctuate to the north and
    south over the waters between roughly Bermuda and northeast
    Florida through early next week, as a ridge persists across the
    central Bahamas. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift east by
    mid-week ahead of a slightly stronger frontal
    boundary moving off the southeast U.S. coast by late Wed.

    Torres/Christensen
    ##
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Apr 18 07:29:00 2021
    465
    AXNT20 KNHC 180936
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
    08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ
    continues from 03N17W to 02N30W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate
    convection is within 220 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-32W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front is located from near Cedar Key, Florida, to
    26N90W to just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale
    force winds are occurring north of this boundary offshore the
    Mexican coast. These strong winds will prevail into tonight, and
    are being enhanced by weak low pressure of 1008 mb that has
    developed overnight near 21N93W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will also
    persist through tonight. Conditions will improve Mon.

    Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the NE Gulf to the
    north of the stationary front and E of 90W. A cluster of
    thunderstorms is also ongoing about 90 nm E of the Texas Mexico
    border. North of the stationary boundary, and away from the
    aforementioned Mexican coast, fresh to strong NE winds are
    ongoing. Elsewhere, mainly moderate southerly winds prevail.

    For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary into
    mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front
    into the far SE Gulf Wed into Thu.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A trough that extends W into the eastern Pacific continues west to
    the coast of Colombia along 10N. Scattered moderate convection is
    ongoing within 90 nm either side of this trough. Deep layer dry
    air is elsewhere, favoring fair weather conditions. The pressure
    gradient between higher pressure in the central Atlantic and lower
    pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is allowing for fresh to locally
    trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the waters
    between Jamaica and Cuba and within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
    generally 4 to 7 ft.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will persist north of
    central Honduras into tonight, between the ridge and lower
    pressure over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The high will shift
    east ahead of a weak front moving through the Gulf allowing trade
    winds to increase over mainly the south central Caribbean early
    this week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 32N65W roughly along 30N to near
    Saint Augustine, Florida. W of 70W along and N of this boundary,
    scattered moderate convection is occurring, otherwise generally
    dry conditions are located over the basin. To the E of 70W to
    around 50W, an area south of the front and S of a weak low
    pressure near Bermuda, fresh to locally strong SW winds are
    occurring.

    Broad surface ridging is across the remainder Atlantic waters,
    supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N.
    Mainly fresh NE to E winds over the West Africa adjacent waters
    and over the central tropical waters. Otherwise, a dissipating
    surface trough is noted from 31N35W to 25N50W. A few showers and
    thunderstorms exist within 60 nm of this boundary. Seas throughout
    the basin are 6 to 9 ft.

    For the forecast, the stationary front will remain nearly in
    place into mid week, as high pressure dominates the SE Part of the
    basin. Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly
    strong frontal boundary will move off the SE U.S. coast by Thu.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Apr 18 17:14:00 2021
    663
    AXNT20 KNHC 181742
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1720 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    near 11N15W, to 08N20W, and to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from
    05N24W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 03SN35W, and
    to 03S39W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate,
    and locally strong, is from 08N southward from 52W eastward.
    Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
    eastward.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A warm front passes through 30N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
    Cedar Key in Florida. The front becomes stationary from Cedar
    Key in Florida, to 27N90W in the north central Gulf of Mexico,
    and curving to 19N95W along the coast of Mexico. The stationary
    front continues northwestward in interior sections of Mexico. A
    surface trough is just to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula,
    along 90W/91W from 18N in Mexico to 25N. Precipitation:
    scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm to the
    south of the stationary front between 83W and 92W. Isolated
    moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 180 nm on the
    northern side of the stationary front, and in Florida and in the
    Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward between 76W and 83W.

    A nearly stationary front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida,
    to 25N92W, to just south of Veracruz in Mexico. Strong to near
    gale-force winds are occurring to the west of this boundary
    along the Mexican coast. This front will remain nearly
    stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air
    pushes the front into the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico from
    Wednesday into Thursday.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The GFS model for 250 mb shows: broad anticyclonic wind flow in
    the Caribbean Sea. A ridge is along 79W, between Jamaica and
    80W. The GFS model for 500 mb shows: an anticyclonic circulation
    center that is in the northern coastal waters of Haiti.
    Anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N
    northward from 80W eastward. A NW-to-SE oriented trough extends
    from the Yucatan Channel to 13N76W. The GFS model for 700 mb
    shows: a ridge from an Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation
    center that is near 23N68W, to eastern Honduras/NE Nicaragua.

    The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, across
    Panama along 08N/09N, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
    eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
    strong is in a few clusters, from 13N southward from 75W
    westward, in general. One of the specific areas of precipitation
    is along the coast of Colombia between 75W and 77W. Another
    specific area of precipitation is from 10N to 12N between 80W
    and 83W.

    Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
    rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
    isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
    surface-to-low level wind flow.

    A ridge extends to the north of the basin, across the Atlantic
    Ocean, through the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong SE winds
    north of central Honduras will diminish this afternoon. The high
    pressure center will shift eastward, in advance of a weak front
    that is moving through the Gulf of Mexico,
    allowing the trade winds to increase in mainly the south central
    Caribbean Sea through mid week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is
    near 32N59W, to 31N61W. The front is stationary from 31N61W to
    31N73W. The front is warm from 31N73W to the NE coast of Florida
    near 30N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
    from 24N northward between 40W and 60W, and from 28N northward
    from 60W westward.

    A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
    is near 33N31W, to 29N42W to 22N59W, across the Bahamas to
    24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
    covers the Atlantic Ocean away from the 59W-to-NE Florida
    frontal boundary southward.

    An east-to-west-oriented frontal boundary will remain nearly
    stationary off the coast of northeastern Florida, through the
    early part of the week, as a ridge extends westward from the
    central Atlantic Ocean through the central Bahamas. Looking
    ahead: as the ridge shifts eastward by Wednesday, a slightly
    stronger frontal boundary will move off the southeastern U.S.A.
    coast by Thursday.

    $$
    mt/ec
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Apr 19 17:04:00 2021
    457
    AXNT20 KNHC 191804
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 07N16W and to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
    04N20W, to the Equator along 29W, and continuing along the
    Equator at 34W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
    isolated strong in clusters is from 07N southward from 40W
    eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
    10N southward from 60W eastward.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean,
    to 29N82W in Florida, curving into the central Gulf of Mexico
    near 26N90W, curving to 23N94W, and reaching the coast of Mexico
    near 19N95W. The stationary front continues northwestward in
    interior sections of Mexico to 24N100W. A surface trough is
    within 60 nm to 180 nm to the southeast of the stationary front.
    A second surface trough runs north-to-south, in the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
    strong is from 25N southward from 87W eastward. Isolated
    moderate is elsewhere from 28N southward from 88W eastward.

    A nearly stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida,
    to 25N92W, to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong
    winds, occurring to the west of this boundary in the
    southwestern Gulf of Mexico, will continue to diminish today.
    This front will remain nearly stationary into mid-week, before
    reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far
    southeastern Gulf of Mexico, from mid-to-late week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The Eastern Caribbean Sea Ashfall Advisory from six hours ago
    has ended for the time being. Latest satellite analysis
    indicates some faint volcanic aloft removed well to the west and
    southwest of the volcano. The Ashfall Advisory has been in
    effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the island of St. Vincent
    near 13.3N 61.2W off and on for the last 8 days or so. The
    volcano remains in an active state. Additional eruptions and ash
    plumes are possible at any time. Mariners who are transiting the
    nearby waters should exercise caution, and they are encouraged
    to report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by
    calling 305-229-4424.

    Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
    imagery, from 66W eastward.

    An Atlantic Ocean upper-level trough passes through 13N55W,
    toward the eastern sections of Venezuela. The trough is
    surrounded by the comparatively drier air. Upper-level NW wind
    flow is moving toward Venezuela and Colombia, in general. An
    upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in Honduras.

    The GFS model for 500 mb shows: an anticyclonic circulation
    center that is near 24N61W in the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic
    wind flow is covering the Caribbean Sea to the east of the line
    that runs from SW Haiti to the coast of Venezuela along 68W. The
    GFS model for 700 mb shows: an anticyclonic circulation center
    is near 26N61W in the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic wind flow is
    covering much of the Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow
    covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 14N southward
    from 75W westward.

    The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across
    eastern Panama just to the north of the border with Colombia,
    beyond 07N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
    widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to
    the west of the line that runs from 10N79W, to 15N84W in
    eastern Honduras.

    Broken to overcast low-level clouds, and isolated moderate
    rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
    isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface to
    low-level wind flow.

    A ridge extends to the north of the basin, across the Atlantic
    Ocean, through the central Bahamas. The ridge will shift
    eastward, in advance of a weak front moving across the Gulf of
    Mexico. This will be allowing for trade winds to increase in
    mainly the south central Caribbean Sea, through mid-week.
    Looking ahead: The trade winds will diminish by late week, as
    the high pressure shifts eastward, although fresh to strong
    winds will persist off Colombia.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front passes through extends from a 1006 mb low
    pressure center that is near 32N76W to 31N81W to beyond 29N82W
    in Florida. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
    scattered strong is within 240 nm to the south and southeast of
    the 1006 mb low pressure center and stationary front, between
    69W and 78W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 25N
    northward from 64W westward.

    A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
    is near 35N26W to 28N36W to 23N50W to 21N65W and to beyond the
    coast of Cuba near 23N78W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
    the Atlantic Ocean away from the 31N81W-to-Florida 29N82W
    stationary front southeastward.

    The current weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary
    off the coast of northeastern Florida, through Tuesday night, as
    a ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic Ocean to
    the central Bahamas. The ridge will slide eastward on Wednesday,
    in response to a cold front that will move off the southeastern
    U.S.A. coast. The front will reach from near 31N74W to Stuart in
    Florida on Wednesday night, and from near Bermuda to the Straits
    of Florida by late Thursday. The front is forecast to begin to
    stall near 25N through Friday night, as high pressure builds
    between northeastern Florida and Bermuda.

    $$
    mt/ja
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Apr 20 15:41:00 2021
    063
    AXNT20 KNHC 201734
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1710 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 08N13W, 03N20W, to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from
    01N25W, to the Equator along 35W, and continuing along the
    Equator at 45W, to 04N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered
    moderate to isolated strong in clusters is from 10N southward
    from 56W eastward.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front passes through Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to
    25N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary at
    25N85W, and it continues to a 1012 mb low pressure center that
    is near 21N95W. The stationary front continues from the 1012 mb
    low pressure center, to 19N94W, and to 18N96W. A surface trough
    runs north-to-south, in the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
    scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm to the south of
    the frontal boundary between 81W and 87W. Widely scattered
    moderate to isolated strong is from 25N southward from 87W
    eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 28N southward from
    88W eastward. It is possible that strong gusty winds and rough
    seas may be in some of the areas of the comparatively heavier
    and more intense precipitation.

    A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida, to 24N90W, where
    it transitions to a stationary front to the Bay of Campeche. The
    cold front will be nudged southward, to the far southeastern
    Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and to the lower Straits of Florida
    on Wednesday night. High pressure in its wake, will shift
    eastward through Saturday night, as a cold front reaches eastern
    Texas. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the NW
    and in the central Gulf of Mexico, from late Friday through
    Saturdat. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will be
    focused along and near the cold front today and tonight. Some of
    this activity may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Water vapor imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an
    anticyclonic circulation center that is in the SE coastal
    sections of Nicaragua. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
    the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind
    flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward, with an
    Atlantic Ocean trough.

    The GFS model for 700 mb shows: Broad cyclonic wind flow covers
    the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N southward from 72W
    westward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in SE
    Nicaragua. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in a
    line from central Panama toward SE Nicaragua.

    The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through
    the border of Colombia and Panama, beyond 07N80W and 07N86W,
    into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to
    numerous strong is in SE Nicaragua. Widely scattered moderate to
    isolated strong is in a line from central Panama toward SE
    Nicaragua.

    Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
    rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
    isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
    surface-to-low level wind flow.

    Fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will
    diminish by late in the week, as high pressure in the central
    Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward, except near the coast
    of Colombia where these winds will persist through the week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A first cold front passes through 32N68W, to Lake Okeechobee in
    Florida. A second cold front passes through 32N73W to 30N80W,
    about 130 nm to 180 nm to the NW of the first cold front.
    Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
    isolated to widely scattered strong, are to the northwest of the
    line that passes through 32N50W, to 26N60W, and to 23N80W. It is
    possible that strong gusty winds and rough seas may be in some
    of the areas of the comparatively heavier and more intense
    precipitation.

    A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that
    is near 33N21W, to a second 1023 mb high pressure center that is
    near 28N33W, to a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near
    27N43W, 24N69W, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 20N82W in the NW
    corner of the Caribbean Sea. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
    covers the Atlantic Ocean, away from the 32N68W-to-Lake
    Okeechobee in Florida cold front, eastward and southeastward.

    The current weak cold front, that extends from 31N70W to West
    Palm Beach, Florida will stall E of 75W near 30N tonight, while
    W of 75W it will continue slowly southward. By early Wednesday,
    the stationary front will have move northward as a warm front,
    while the cold front will extend from NE of the Bahamas to the
    Florida Keys, and from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to
    west central Cuba by late Wednesday night, as another cold front
    moves into the NW waters. By late Thursday, both fronts will be
    weakening NE of the Bahamas, as high pressure builds into the
    area. The high pressure will shift eastward through Saturday
    night, as a stronger cold front approaches the southeastern
    U.S.A. coast. The stronger cold front will be preceded by fresh
    to strong southerly winds in the far NW waters, along with
    possible scattered showers and thunderstorms.

    $$
    mt/ja
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Apr 21 15:29:00 2021
    377
    AXNT20 KNHC 211721
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
    11N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the coast of
    Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is from 05S northward to 180 nm north of the ITCZ and
    monsoon trough, between the coast of Africa and 36W. Isolated
    moderate convection is from 01S-08N between 42W-57W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends over the southern Gulf of Mexico from
    Lake Okeechobee Florida to 21N94W. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the stationary
    front, north of 23N and east of 88W. Scattered showers and
    isolated tstorms are over the southern half of the Florida
    Peninsula. The stationary front will move SE as a cold front
    this afternoon, exiting the Gulf this evening. Expect for
    scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over the
    southeast Gulf waters near the front through this afternoon.
    Seas will be in the 3-5 ft range over most of the basin this
    afternoon.

    Farther north, a cold front extends from Destin Florida to
    28N89W to 27N94W to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. High
    pressure of 1027 mb centered over north Texas is ushering in
    cooler air behind the cold front, with latest surface
    observations showing fresh N-NE winds north of the cold front. A
    recent ASCAT pass also shows a large area of fresh N winds over
    the central Gulf, in between the two fronts. The cold front will
    reach from west-central Florida to the central Gulf by late
    tonight, then weaken early Thu as it reaches from southwest
    Florida to near 23N90W. On Fri, fresh to strong southerly return
    flow will develop over the western Gulf, shift to the central
    Gulf early Sat and diminish late Sat as another cold front
    enters the far NW Gulf. This cold front will move across the
    rest of the Gulf through Sun night as it weakens.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A recent ASCAT pass on Wednesday morning shows strong trades
    over the south-central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds
    within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds prevail
    elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean. The ASCAT pass
    shows gentle wind speeds over the Windward Passage, north of
    Jamaica and south of Cuba. Seas are likely 7-10 ft in the
    south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft elsewhere over the eastern and
    central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the NW basin. Overall, dry
    conditions prevail, except for a few showers east of the Yucatan
    Peninsula and northern Belize as well as over central Cuba.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
    Caribbean will diminish slightly late in the week as high
    pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near
    the coast of Colombia where these winds will persist through the
    week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low near 33N69W to
    Lake Okeechobee Florida. A warm front extends SE from the low to
    30N61W, where it transitions to a cold front that extends E to
    29N55W to 32N45W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen
    along and within 90 nm SE of the stationary front over the
    western Atlantic. Farther east, scattered showers are seen along
    the warm front and cold front. A surface ridge axis extends
    across the subtropical Atlantic from 30N25W to a 1025 mb high
    pressure near 27N36W to a 1024 mb high pressure near 28N56W to
    the central Bahamas. Mainly moderate wind speeds of 10-15 kt
    prevail across the western Atlantic, except for fresh closer to
    the 1014 mb low and in the convection along the stationary
    front. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere near the ridge
    axis over the central and eastern Atlantic, generally from
    23N-30N, except near the coast of Africa, where fresh NE winds
    are observed. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the
    tropical Atlantic, from 06N-21N between 35W-65W. Seas are 4-5 ft
    over the W Atlantic and across the subtropical Atlantic near the
    ridge axis. Higher seas of 6-8 ft are located north of 30N east
    of 75W, and also in the tropical Atlantic, where the fresh
    trades are observed.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the west Atlantic stationary front
    will transition back to a cold front today, and merge with a
    secondary front emerging off the SE U.S. coast tonight. N of
    28N, fresh to strong SW winds are possible ahead of the first
    front, with strong NW winds possible behind the second front.
    High pressure will shift eastward through Sat night as a
    stronger cold front approaches the SE U.S. coast. This front is
    expected to move across the western Atlantic Sun and Sun night,
    preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and possible
    thunderstorms.

    Currently, a storm force 998 mb low pressure north of the area
    near 38N42W extends a cold front SW to beyond 32N45W. The gales
    associated with this storm will remain north of 32N as it moves
    ENE over the north Atlantic. However, swell from this storm will
    produce seas of 11-14 ft, generally north of 28N and east of 40W
    tonight through Fri.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Apr 22 15:36:00 2021
    878
    AXNT20 KNHC 221715
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Apr 22 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1640 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
    near 12N16W and continues SW to 05N20W to 03N23W. The ITCZ
    extends from 03N23W to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near
    01S48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    located from 00N-06N between 05W-21W, from 03S-04N between
    25W-32W, and from 03S-04N between 45W-51W. Isolated moderate
    showers are elsewhere from 03S-06N between 05W-51W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front is over the Florida Straits from 24N80W to
    23N87W, dissipating to 23N90W. A second stationary front is
    located from near Ft. Myers Florida to 26N90W, with a
    dissipating warm front analyzed from 26N90W to the coast of
    Texas near 27N97.5W. Clouds are near the frontal boundaries but
    no significant precipitation is noted. A recent ASCAT pass shows
    moderate to locally fresh east winds across most of the basin
    north of 23N, with gentle winds in the SW Gulf. Seas range from
    3 to 5 ft, highest in the west-central Gulf. Patchy areas of
    smoke and haze are possible in the Bay of Campeche due to
    agricultural fires in Mexico.

    The stationary front that extends from Fort Myers Florida to
    26N90W will lift north as a warm front Friday through Saturday.
    A new cold front will then enter the NW Gulf Sat afternoon and
    move across the rest of the Gulf through Sun evening. High
    pressure in the wake of the front will slide
    eastward through Mon night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Mid to upper level ridging covers most of the Caribbean with
    subsidence and relatively dry air. A recent ASCAT pass shows
    strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to
    fresh trades elsewhere east of 80W. Moderate winds are seen in
    the SW Caribbean, and gentle winds are over the NW basin. Seas
    are in the 6-9 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft
    elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
    over the NW part of the basin.

    Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
    diminish slightly into the weekend as high pressure over the
    central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of
    Colombia where these winds will persist through the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from Bermuda to 27N73W, where it
    transitions to a stationary front that continues to Andros
    Island Bahamas through the Florida Straits to 23.5N83W.
    Scattered moderate tstorms are along and within 60 nm east of
    the entire front to the northeast of Andros Island. A second
    cold front extends from 32N71W to Lake Okeechobee Florida.
    Isolated showers are SE of this front. Fresh N to NE winds are
    seen on a recent ASCAT pass to the north and west of the second
    front, extending to the coast of northern and central Florida.
    Elsewhere over the western Atlantic to the south of the second
    front, wind speeds are mostly moderate, except gentle near a
    surface ridge axis that lies from the central Bahamas to 26N65W
    to 29N53W. Seas are 5-7 ft in the fresh wind area east of
    northern Florida, and 3-6 ft over the rest of the western
    Atlantic.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the second front will merge with
    the first front by this evening, and the combined cold front
    will stretch from 31N64W through the NW Bahamas to the Florida
    Straits tonight. Winds behind the second front will diminish to
    moderate to fresh this afternoon. Sun morning, a stronger cold
    front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast and
    move across the waters NE of the Bahamas through Mon night while
    weakening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede this
    front east of northern Florida Sat and Sat night, and shift
    eastward through Sun night. Scattered showers and tstorms are
    possible ahead of this front.

    E of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N24W to 28N34W to
    27.5N44W, then continues as a stationary front to 29N50W to
    32N52W. Scattered moderate showers are near the front east of
    34W. Fresh NW winds are north of the front east of 34W, where
    seas are 9-13 ft. Gentle winds are south of the front and north
    of 23N, due to surface ridging, where seas are 4-7 ft. A 1027 mb
    high pressure is centered near 32N45W. Fresh trades cover the
    tropical Atlantic from 05N-21N between 35W-61W, where seas are
    6-8 ft.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Apr 23 16:59:00 2021
    602
    AXNT20 KNHC 231746
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N32W
    to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 09N
    between 10W-20W. Similar convection is noted within 200 nm north
    of the ITCZ between 29W-39W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front previously across the central
    Gulf of Mexico has lifted north as a warm front. The boundary
    now stretches from the Texas/Louisiana border to the central Gulf
    near 28N90W. High pressure centered over the southern U.S. is
    allowing for fresh E-SE winds over most of the basin with seas of
    3-6 ft. The latest surface observations along the coast of Mexico
    show reduced visibility due to smoke from agricultural fires in
    southern Mexico affecting the adjacent waters in the SW Gulf,
    including along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

    The warm front is expected to lift north later today. Fresh to
    strong southeasterly winds will prevail across the Gulf today
    through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the
    northern Gulf coast today through Saturday night. A cold front
    will enter the NW Gulf on Sat evening and continue progressing
    eastward through Sun, exiting the basin by Sun night. Light to
    gentle winds will prevail early next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge covers much of the
    Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An
    upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across the
    central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea, into eastern
    Venezuela.

    The ridge is allowing for deep layer dry air over most of the
    basin indicated by low level precipitable water and mid-level
    water vapor imagery, which is favoring fair weather conditions.
    The latest scatterometer data reveals fresh trades over the
    eastern and south-central Caribbean and with gentle to moderate
    winds in the north-central and northwest Caribbean. Locally fresh
    winds may be within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-5 ft across
    the basin except waters offshore of Colombia where seas are up to
    10 ft.

    Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of
    Honduras will diminish this weekend as high pressure in the
    central Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong
    winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through early next
    week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the
    weekend into early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N61W continuing
    southwest to the northern Bahamas near 26N78W. A pre-frontal
    trough stretches from 30N62W to 26N 72W. Moderate to fresh NE
    winds are behind the front. Scattered moderate convection is
    within 160 nm ahead of the front.

    A 1026 mb high pressure center is anchored near 31N40W allowing
    for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N. South of
    20N, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail. Farther east, a cold
    front passes across the Canary Islands to 23N35W where the
    remainder of the front is dissipating to 27N46W. No significant
    weather is associated with this front.

    The cold front across the SW North Atlantic will dissipate later
    today. A cold front will move east of northern Florida on Sun
    morning, then weaken and move NE of the Bahamas through Mon
    night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the
    front Sat and Sat night, then shift eastward over the northern
    waters through Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds can be expected
    behind the front. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are
    possible east of the front.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 24 08:52:00 2021
    653
    AXNT20 KNHC 241025 RRA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    and Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from
    03N21W to 00N34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    the 02N-05N between 13W-34W, and from 00N-06N between 42W-49W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Recent buoy and platform observations along with scatterometer
    satellite data indicate fresh to strong SE winds in the central
    and western Gulf of Mexico, between high pressure east of the
    Carolinas and low pressure across Texas. Seas are 6 to 7 ft over
    the central and western Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 4
    ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural
    fires in southern Mexico is noted on satellite imagery, causing
    hazy sky conditions affecting much of the southwest and west-
    central Gulf.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail
    across the Gulf today, ahead of a cold front that will enter the
    NW Gulf this evening. The front will move east of the basin Sun
    night. Hazy sky conditions are likely to continue across most of
    the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern Caribbean Sea is
    maintaining fairly dry conditions across the basin. Fresh to
    strong trade winds are active off Colombia, and scatterometer
    data shows fresh to strong winds north of Honduras. Moderate to
    fresh trade winds are over the south-central and southeast
    Caribbean, and moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4
    ft in the northern Caribbean and mostly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central
    Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high
    pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh
    to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through
    early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    1024 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and South
    Carolina near 32N71W. A cold front reaches from near 32N53W to
    26N65W. Isolated showers are noted within 90 nm east of the
    front north of 28N. Moderate NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are
    noted west of the front. Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is
    centered near 32N39W, with a dissipating cold front reaching
    from Morocco through the Canary Islands to 23N21W. A surface
    trough is analyzed from 23N21W to 20N33W to 27N48W. Moderate to
    fresh NW winds along with 9 to 14 ft seas in NW swell are north
    of 15N west of the front to 35W. Moderate to locally fresh
    trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move east of
    northern Florida on Sun, then weaken as it moves NE of the
    Bahamas through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
    develop ahead of the front later today. Scattered showers and
    strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front.

    $$
    Mundell
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Apr 24 18:56:00 2021
    923
    AXNT20 KNHC 242122
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2120 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
    Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W
    to 02N30W to 00N45W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 07W-
    11W. Scattered moderate from 02N-05N between 20W-35W, and from
    00N-04N between 42W-47W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1005 mb low pressure center is over the southwest Gulf off the
    coast of Veracruz near 21N96W. A recent scatterometer satellite
    pass indicated moderate to fresh NW winds between the low
    pressure and the coast near Tampico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge
    extends from the western Atlantic to the northwest Gulf. Fresh SW
    winds are evident over the northeast and north-central Gulf,
    between the ridge axis and a frontal boundary just inland. Seas
    are 5 to 8 ft in this area, as noted in recent altimeter
    satellite data and buoy observations. Mostly moderate southerly
    winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A large
    plume of smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is
    noted in satellite imagery causing hazy sky conditions and
    possibly lower visibility as far as the northeast Gulf. Smoke
    may be dense over portions of the central Gulf.

    For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across
    the Gulf through tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
    this evening and push eastward across the basin through Sun with
    winds diminishing behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms can
    be expected across the north- central Gulf through tonight. Hazy
    sky conditions from fires in southern Mexico are possible across
    most of the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern
    Caribbean Sea is maintaining fairly dry conditions across the
    basin. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds off
    Colombia and over the northwest Caribbean from the central coast
    of Honduras to northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo.
    Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the
    eastern and central Caribbean with gentle to moderate SE winds
    south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. No significant shower or
    thunderstorm activity is observed across the basin.

    For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central
    Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high
    pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh
    to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through
    early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of
    the Greater Antilles by midweek. Fresh to strong winds could
    return to the Gulf of Honduras later in the week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...
    A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure is centered near
    Bermuda to central Florida. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
    evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an area of
    lower pressure over the southeast United States. A few showers
    and thunderstorms are evident in a line from near Jacksonville
    to 32N79W. Mostly moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere west
    of 65W, with fresh winds evident along the north coast of
    Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in open waters.

    Another 1024 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N37W. A
    cold front is analyze between the two high pressure areas from
    32N50W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure area between
    Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to strong NW winds
    north of 28N and east of 30W, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW swell
    north of 18N. Elsewhere mostly moderate trade winds and 6 to 8 ft
    seas are noted south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4
    to 6 ft seas are evident north of 20N.

    For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the fresh to strong
    southerly winds off the coast of Florida and will continue
    overnight. A cold front will move east of northern Florida early
    Sun morning, then weaken as it moves NE of the Bahamas through
    Mon night. Winds will diminish as the front moves across the
    area. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible
    east of the front.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Apr 25 07:15:00 2021
    725
    AXNT20 KNHC 251012
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea/Sierra
    Leone border near 09N13W then continues SW to 03N20W to 02N26W.
    The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N
    between 13W-25W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are
    noted over parts of Liberia and Ivory Coast.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure centered over
    South Carolina/Georgia border to the Florida Panhandle, and
    across the northern Gulf into southern Texas. Fresh northerly
    winds and seas less than 8 ft are noted in the wake of the front.
    A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front over
    the NE Gulf and northern Florida. The front will push eastward
    across the Gulf waters through this evening while gradually
    weakening. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh
    southerly winds over the NE Gulf east of the front. Light to
    gentle winds are seen elsewhere ahead of the front with the
    exception of moderate NE winds near the west coast of the Yucatan
    Peninsula due to local effects.

    Hazy sky conditions from agricultural fires in southern Mexico
    are possible across most of the western Gulf of Mexico today.
    Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected across the western Gulf
    Wed and Wed night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach
    the coast of Texas late Thu or Thu night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Recent scatterometer data depict fresh to strong trade winds over
    the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with seas
    to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in
    the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate SE
    winds south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Shallow moisture
    embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the
    basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of
    these patches of moisture are currently affecting Puerto Rico and
    the US/UK Virgin Islands as well as Hispaniola.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
    the south-central Caribbean through Mon night, then mainly
    moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds in the
    Gulf of Honduras will diminish this morning, and could return Thu
    night as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
    Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the lee of the Greater
    Antilles, including the Windward Passage by midweek as high
    pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023 mb
    high pressure located near 32N58W. Fresh to strong southerly
    winds are evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an
    area of low pressure located over South Carolina/Georgia border.
    The attendant cold front will move east of northern Florida this
    morning. Showers and thunderstorms are on increase over the waters
    N of 29N and W of 74W to NE Florida. The cold front is forecast
    to reach from 31N72W to central Florida this evening, from 28N65W
    to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Mon evening, and from
    26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue evening while weakening.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
    front.

    Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are noted per
    scatterometer data N of 27N west of 65W while mainly moderate
    E-SE winds are observed S of 27N and W of 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
    E of the Bahamas.

    Another 1022 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N38W. A
    surface trough is analyze between the two high pressure areas
    and runs from 31N48W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure
    area between Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to
    strong NW winds just north of the forecast waters, with seas of
    10-16 ft. Seas of 8-13 ft dominate most of the region from 20N-
    31N and E of 30W. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to
    8 ft seas are noted south of 20N.

    $$
    GR
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Apr 25 18:21:00 2021
    270
    AXNT20 KNHC 252150
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2100 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
    Guinea/Sierra Leone border near 09N13W and continues SW to
    05N15W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to the coast of
    Brazil near 01N50W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
    convection is seen from 00N-07N between 01E-13W. Scattered
    moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N
    between 16W-35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to the west central
    Gulf of Mexico near 23N96W. Fresh NE winds are occurring to the
    north of the cold front over the northeast and north-central Gulf,
    where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are south
    of the front, with 2-4 ft seas. A pair of weak surface troughs
    are noted over the far southwest Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
    and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the southern Gulf. No
    significant precipitation is observed over the Gulf. Smoke from
    agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is
    spreading across the southwest Gulf and reaching into the central
    and northeast Gulf along and to the south of the cold front, limiting visibility in areas.

    For the forecast, the cold front will push eastward across the
    Gulf waters through this evening while gradually weakening.
    Moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds over the north-
    central gulf and north of the front will diminish this evening.
    Otherwise, fresh to strong SE to S winds are forecast across the
    western half of the Gulf Tue evening through Thu morning ahead of
    the next cold front which is expected to come off the coast of
    Texas late on Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds following this
    front will affect the eastern coast of Mexico and adjacent
    waters.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Mid to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the
    Caribbean Sea, supporting subsidence and dry weather across the
    basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing off northeast
    Colombia with 5 to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh
    SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are evident between central Honduras
    and northern Belize. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5
    ft seas are evident elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected
    in the south-central and portions of the southwest Caribbean
    through early Wed, then mainly moderate to locally fresh winds
    will prevail through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh east-
    southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras are forecast to increase
    to fresh to strong Wed night as a cold front moves across the
    Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the
    Windward Passage Tue night to Fri as high pressure builds over
    the western Atlantic.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
    Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted within 90
    nm of the cold front north of 29N. Scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 30N within 300 to 480
    nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 4 to 6 ft
    seas are noted west of the front. A ridge extends from a 1024 mb
    high pressure near 34N54W to the northern Bahamas. A 1022 mb high
    pressure area is centered near 29N37W, with a dissipating
    stationary front in between the two high pressure cells, north of
    30N. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident
    east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds south of 20N, with
    4 to 6 ft seas, and light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas
    north of 20N.

    For the forecast over the waters west of 65W, the front is
    forecast to reach from 31N72W to central Florida this evening,
    from 28N65W to the northwest Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
    Mon evening, and from 26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue
    evening while weakening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
    ahead of the front and west of 67W.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Apr 26 15:46:00 2021
    572
    AXNT20 KNHC 261721
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
    of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ
    extends from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near
    02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    seen from 03S-04N between 05W-12W, and from 03S-05N between
    21W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N
    between 37W-53W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from the Florida Keys west to 25N85W. A
    stationary front continues west to 25N91W. No significant
    precipitation is observed over the basin due to subsidence from
    a mid-level ridge. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle E-SE winds
    south of the front and east of 88W, with moderate E winds north
    of the front. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail
    across the basin, with some locally fresh speeds off the coast
    of southern Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the west-central Gulf,
    with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural and forest
    fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across portions of
    the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of 90W,
    limiting visibility in some areas.

    For the forecast, the cold front will move across the SE Gulf
    early this afternoon while gradually weakening. Fresh to strong
    SE winds are expected across the western Gulf Tue night through
    Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
    Gulf waters late on Thu. Gale conditions are possible over the
    SW Gulf behind the front on Fri. Currently, the forecast calls
    for NW to N winds of 30 to 35 kt and seas in the 7 to 10 ft
    range.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Mid-level ridging continues to dominate the basin, producing
    subsidence. As a result, there is no significant precipitation
    seen over the Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass continues to show
    fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
    near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds are
    noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the
    Gulf of Honduras. Gentle SE winds cover the NW part of the
    basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are offshore Colombia, while 3-5 ft seas
    prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean and in
    the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 1-3 ft cover the NW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
    the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight
    and again Tue night. Then, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
    winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast
    in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front
    moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also
    expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
    Republic Tue night through Thu night as high pressure builds
    over the western Atlantic.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    W of 60W: A cold front extends from Bermuda to 28N71W to the
    northern tip of Andros Island Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A
    band of scattered moderate showers and tstorms is within 150 nm
    southeast of the front, mainly north of 24N and east of 76W. A
    recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N to NE winds behind the front,
    north of 28N east of 79W. Fresh S to SW winds are noted ahead of
    the front and N of 30N to about 58W. Seas are 5-7 ft north of
    28N between 62W-78W. Mostly gentle wind speeds are observed
    south of 24N and west of 70W. The front will reach from 31N60W
    to the central Bahamas tonight while weakening. High pressure in
    the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through
    Fri. The next cold front will move off NE Florida by Fri evening.

    E of 60W: A weak cold front enters the forecast waters near
    32N36W and continues SW to near 27N43W, then continues as
    stationary to 27N46W. Isolated showers are along and within 45
    nm ahead of the cold front. The remainder of the subtropical
    Atlantic is under the influence of a surface high pressure
    ridge. Gentle winds are from 20N-30N over the eastern and
    central Atlantic. Farther south, ASCAT shows fresh trades from
    05N-18N between 35W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. The northerly
    swell that had been occurring east of 30W is now subsiding, with
    seas currently 6-8 ft over the far eastern Atlantic.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Apr 27 15:17:00 2021
    024
    AXNT20 KNHC 271653
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
    coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to
    05N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N36W. A break in
    the ITCZ occurs with a trough from 05N38W to 01N41W. The ITCZ
    resumes from 03N43W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W.
    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists south
    of 05N east of 10W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from
    00N to 06N between 30W and 40W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge of high pressure extends over the southeastern United
    States promoting E to SE gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf
    this morning. Seas are small, generally 3-4 ft across the Gulf.
    No significant deep convection is present, though scattered
    showers are occurring within 120 NM of the Texas and NE Mexico
    coasts. Additionally, some haze is noted in the SW and W Central
    Gulf due to agricultural and forest fires occurring in Mexico.

    Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas of 8 to 9 ft are
    expected across the western Gulf tonight through Thu morning
    ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters
    on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over SW
    Gulf, including the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of
    Campeche on Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A moderate north-south pressure gradient from a 1025 mb Bermuda
    High near 33N74W and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela
    are contributing to generally gentle to moderate NE to E trades
    across the Caribbean. The exception is fresh to strong NE winds
    just north of Colombia. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the
    Caribbean, except 6-8 ft just north of Colombia. No significant
    deep convection is noted over the Caribbean this morning,
    typical of April conditions. Scattered showers are present just
    south of Hispaniola and adjacent to the Leeward Islands, the
    Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

    Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near the coast of
    Colombia tonight. Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh
    trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are
    forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold
    front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong
    northeast winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and
    south of the Dominican Republic tonight through early Thu as
    high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N57W to 27N65W, where
    it transitions to a stationary front to 24N74W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 23N to 32N between 55W and 62W
    ahead of the front. Winds northwest of the front are NE to E
    moderate to fresh, while southeast of the front winds are gentle
    or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft northwest of the front and slightly
    less southeast of the front.

    The cold will shift eastward while weakening today. High
    pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast
    waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off
    the northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally
    strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the
    waters N of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night.

    East of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N31W to 28N31W, where
    it transitions to a trough to 25N44W. Scattered showers are
    present within 120 NM east of the front. A moderate north-south
    pressure gradient is supporting gentle to fresh NE to E trades
    across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7
    ft, mainly due to NW to N swell. Little change in winds or seas
    are anticipated for the next few days.

    $$
    Landsea/Rivera-Acevedo
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Apr 28 14:58:00 2021
    121
    AXNT20 KNHC 281830 CCA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021

    Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
    07N12W and continues southward to 03N21W, where it transitions
    to the ITCZ and continues to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
    convection is from 00N to 08N between 11W and 46W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

    A surface ridge extends westward from the western Atlantic
    across northern Florida into the north-central Gulf waters. This
    ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
    over the majority of the Gulf, as noted in recent scatterometer
    data. A large area of haze and some smoke continues in the SW
    and W Central Gulf areas due to agricultural fires in southern
    Mexico. In the near coastal waters of the SW gulf, low-level
    visibility may be reduced to 6 nm or less due to the smoke.

    For the forecast, fresh southeast winds and building over
    the western Gulf will continue through tonight as low pressure
    deepens over southwestern Texas. Its associated cold front will
    move to just offshore the Texas coast Thu evening, and slowly
    move across the NW Gulf through Fri. It will reach from west-
    central Florida to the central Gulf and to the Bay of Campeche
    by early Sat and become stationary. The front will lift back to
    the north as a warm front through Sun, except the portion over
    the western Gulf will weaken and dissipate by late Sun. Fresh to
    strong northerly winds quickly surge southward behind the front
    W of 96W and S of 25N Fri and Fri night. The smoke in the SW
    Gulf are expected to continue through at least the end of the
    week, while hazy conditions will remain over the west-central
    Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Atlantic high pressure N of the area near 32N69W is supporting
    areas of fresh winds in the Windward Channel, the Gulf of
    Honduras, and near the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer
    data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the rest of the
    basin. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 4 ft except 5-6 ft in the
    areas of higher winds noted above. An area of active convection
    prevails over northern Colombia and Venezuela, with a few
    showers also noted near the ABC Islands and southern Windward
    Islands.

    For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast
    winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night as
    a cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
    winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun
    night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a
    1025 mb high centered near 32N69W. A stationary front extends
    across the central Atlantic from 31N51W to 20N65W. Scattered
    showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the front.
    Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate NE winds immediately
    west of the front, and moderate to fresh easterly winds further
    east of the front and north of Puerto Rico and the Leeward
    Islands. To the east, a surface trough, the remnant of an old
    frontal boundary, stretches from 30N24W to 22N40W. Scattered
    showers are noted along the trough.

    For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the west
    Atlantic will change little through the period. Southerly winds
    will begin to increase over the northwest waters late Thu in
    advance of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to
    move over those waters late Fri into Sat, and across the waters
    N and NE of the Bahamas through Sun night as it weakens. High
    pressure will build in over the area in the wake of this front.

    $$
    ERA/JA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Apr 29 14:33:00 2021
    246
    AXNT20 KNHC 291711
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W S
    of the Equator to 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    convection is noted from 04S-07N between 18W and 40W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean across Florida
    to Louisiana. An area of low pressure is analyzed over northern
    Mexico, and a 1009 mb low pressure system is over Central Texas.
    Scatterometer data shows a large area of fresh to strong SE winds
    across the western Gulf. Wave heights range between 6 to 8 ft in
    the western Gulf and 4 to 6 ft east of 90W. No significant deep
    convective is apparent in satellite imagery. A large area of haze
    and some smoke is evident in the southwest and west-central Gulf
    from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the near-coastal
    waters of the SW gulf, low-level visibility may be reduced at
    times due to dense smoke.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds and building
    seas will continue this morning in the western Gulf. A cold front
    moving off the Texas coast tonight will reach from northern
    Florida to the western Bay of Campeche Fri night, then weaken and
    dissipate this weekend. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in
    the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure north of the basin and weak low pressure over
    northern South America is supporting gentle to moderate trade
    winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are
    north of Honduras, where fresh to locally strong E to SE winds
    are noted. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across the entire basin,
    except 5-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel.
    An area of active convection continues over northern Colombia
    and Venezuela, with widespread shower activity and a few
    embedded thunderstorms also noted extending from northeast of
    Venezuela from the A-B-C Islands across all of the Lesser Antilles
    south of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

    For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast
    winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight as a
    cold front moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
    moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through
    Mon.


    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A 1023 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate to
    locally fresh trade winds across the southern forecast waters,
    and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 25N, east of
    60W, based on scatterometer data. A weakening stationary front
    extends from north of the area through 32N47W to 25N57W. Scattered
    showers are noted along the frontal boundary. A large area of
    showers and few embedded thunderstorms spreads northeast from
    Venezuela, across the Lesser Antilles, into the tropical North
    Atlantic. Further east, a 1014 mb low is centered near 28N17W,
    with a cyclonically curved surface trough trailing away from the
    low, to 21N25W to 24N37W. A second weak low pressure is noted on
    the latest scatterometer to the west near 27N21W. Isolated showers
    are evident near the trough axis and north of the Canary Islands.
    Seas are 3-5 ft across the northern forecast waters, 5-6 ft in
    the southern forecast waters east of the Bahamas, and 5 to 7 ft
    over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Windward
    Islands.

    For the forecast, a weakening stationary front over the central
    Atlantic will dissipate today. The next cold front will move
    into the northern waters Sat, then weaken and shift east of the
    forecast area on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft
    are expected in the vicinity of the front.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Apr 30 17:40:00 2021
    487
    AXNT20 KNHC 302139
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat May 1 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1910 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
    to 13N19W. The ITCZ continues from 13N19W to 01N31W to 01N49W.
    Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
    01N-07N between 07W-24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 24W and 35W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
    35W-51W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure at 1019 mb is centered in the northeast Gulf near
    27N86W. A pronounced surface trough is analyzed in the western
    Gulf from 26N93W to 20N96W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
    are possible within the vicinity of the trough. A cold front
    extends from the Georgia/Florida border to across the Florida
    panhandle where it continues west-northwest. A 1013 mb low
    pressure is over coastal Texas near 28N97W. A stationary front
    extends southeast-south into the west-central Gulf near 22N97W.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near the front,
    mainly within 60 nm of shore and inland, from the Florida
    Panhandle westward. Also, patchy to areas of smoke remain possible
    from the Yucatan Peninsula to across the southwest Gulf due to
    ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America and
    Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may occasionally reduce
    visibilities. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3 ft
    or less are noted near the high center, with gentle to moderate
    winds elsewhere east of the trough along with seas of 3-6 ft,
    locally to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the
    surface trough to the coast of eastern Mexico.

    For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain over the western
    Gulf through Sat, then move northward as a warm front late Sat
    into Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near
    the front. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the southwest
    Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly
    return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure ridging remains north of the basin with 1012 mb low
    pressure near the border of northern Colombia/Venezuela. A
    surface trough is analyzed from just east-southeast of the Anegada
    Passage southwest to 11N67W. Isolated to scattered showers are
    possible across the eastern Caribbean with mid-to-upper level
    southwesterly flow advecting plentiful moisture from the deep
    tropics to across the area. Patchy to areas of smoke are possible
    in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to
    ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This
    smoke and associated haze may reduce visibilities. Mainly gentle
    to moderate trades prevail across the basin, locally fresh from
    15N-18N. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and mainly 3-6
    ft elsewhere across the basin, locally to 7 ft south of Hispaniola
    and near the Gulf of Honduras.

    For the forecast, fresh E-SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
    Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to strong
    Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens
    between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the Gulf of
    Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across
    the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of
    the Caribbean early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    High pressure near 28N62W extends southwest-west to across south
    Florida. Earlier scatterometer data indicated a trough from near
    31N77W to near Jupiter, Florida with scattered showers ahead of it.
    A cold front is just west-northwest of the area from near coastal
    Georgia to across the Florida Panhandle. Moderate to fresh SW
    winds are noted north of 27N and west of 65W, locally fresh to
    strong along 31N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail from
    22N-27N, with moderate trades south of 22N. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
    range west of 65W to the Bahamas, highest north of 27N and south
    of 22N.

    To the east, 1022 mb high pressure is located near 30N44W. A ridge
    axis extends from 29N45W through the high to 27N65W. Light to
    gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N. with moderate to
    locally fresh trades south of 24N across the open waters of the
    central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
    range across this same area.

    For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front
    will enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late tonight
    into early Sat, then shift east of the forecast area and weaken
    on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on
    Sat. In the wake of the front, high pressure will persist east of
    the area early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east
    of Florida.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat May 1 08:05:00 2021
    785
    AXNT20 KNHC 011008
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat May 1 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0930 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
    to 04N20W TO 03N35W. The ITCZ continues from 03N35W to 02N42W to
    01S47W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
    noted from 01S-05N between 18W-29W. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 01S-06N between
    10W-36W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04S-08N
    between 36W-54W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A weak stationary front is oriented E-W from the big bend of
    Florida to 28.5N93W. A surface trough continues from 28.5N93W SW
    to 25N97W. Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 26N and
    west of 95W, including over southeast Texas. Scattered moderate
    convection is seen from 22N-26N and west of 96W. A 1018 mb surface
    high pressure is centered near 27N87W. Gentle winds are over the
    NE Gulf near the high pressure. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere,
    although some fresh winds are likely occurring NW of the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Fresh NE to E winds are also possible along and north
    of the front near the coasts of Louisiana and upper Texas. Seas
    are 3-5 ft over the SW half of the Gulf and 1-3 ft over the NE
    Gulf. Areas of smoke were observed across the southwest Gulf
    south of 23N due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of
    Central America and Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may
    occasionally reduce visibilities.

    For the forecast, the surface trough will remain over the NW Gulf
    through today. The stationary front will move northward as a weak
    warm front tonight into Sun morning. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms will continue near the trough and front over the NW
    Gulf through early Sun. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in
    the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh
    southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of
    the basin. Looking ahead, a weak cold front could reach the Texas
    coast early Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    GOES-16 water vapor channels show dry air in the low to mid levels
    over the central and western Caribbean. This is due to mid-level
    ridging, which is causing subsidence. A sharp upper trough
    persists from over the central Atlantic to the Mona Passage to
    northeast Nicaragua. This is also acting to suppress showers along
    and NW of the upper trough axis. However, some showers are
    occurring SE of the upper-trough axis, between the ABC Islands and
    the Leeward Islands. Patchy areas of smoke are possible in the
    northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to ongoing
    agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This smoke
    and associated haze may reduce visibilities.

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and lower pressure inland over Mexico is tight enough to
    support fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras. However, the
    high pressure is weak enough that gentle to moderate trade winds
    are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
    of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
    Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to
    strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient
    tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the
    Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere
    across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across
    most of the Caribbean early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 31N77W to St. Augustine Florida. A
    few showers are near the front. A ridge extends from 1022 mb high
    pressure near 32N28W to 1022 mb high pressure near 29N36W to 1018
    mb high pressure near 25N62W to South Florida. Moderate to fresh
    SW to W winds are evident north of 28N west of 65W, and SE of the
    stationary front, with 4 to 7 ft seas in the area. Moderate to
    fresh E winds are also possible off the N coast of Hispaniola,
    but generally light to gentle breezes persist across the
    subtropical Atlantic within a few hundred nm of the surface ridge
    axis. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere in open waters west of 65W.
    Farther east, the subtropical ridge dominates north of 20N. Fresh
    to locally strong N to NE winds are noted off the northwest coast
    of Africa, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate to
    occasionally fresh trade winds are south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft
    seas.

    For the forecast, the stationary front from 31N77W to St.
    Augustine Florida will move southeastward as a cold front and
    extend from 31N70W to Daytona Beach Florida later this morning,
    then from 31N60W to 28N70W to Stuart, Florida this evening. The
    front will stall and weaken early Sun west of 65W and dissipate
    late Sun. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the vicinity of
    the front today north of 29N. In the wake of the front, high
    pressure will persist east of the area early next week, leading to
    moderate southerly winds east of Florida. For the forecast in the
    far eastern Atlantic, expect N winds offshore of Morocco to
    increase to strong to near gale force this afternoon and persist
    through the weekend.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat May 1 15:38:00 2021
    307
    AXNT20 KNHC 011803
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1730 UTC.

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
    to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 03N40W to 02N50W.
    Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
    03S-10N between 12W-33W, and 260 nm south between 37W-46W.
    Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, A cold front extends from the western Atlantic
    to a weak stationary front oriented E to W from 87W to a 1012 mb
    low pressure near 27N96W. The stationary front continues south to
    near Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough continues from 21N89W SW
    to 18N93W. Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 26N
    and west of 95W, including over southeast Texas. Scattered
    moderate convection is seen from 22N-26N and west of 96W. Gentle
    winds prevail over the NE Gulf. Moderate winds are noted
    elsewhere, although some fresh winds are likely occurring NW of
    the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh NE to E winds are also possible
    along and north of the front near the coasts of Louisiana and
    upper Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the SW half of the Gulf and 1-
    3 ft over the NE Gulf. Areas of smoke were observed across the
    southwest Gulf south of 23N due to ongoing agricultural fires
    over portions of Central America and Mexico. This smoke and
    associated haze may occasionally reduce visibilities.

    For the forecast, the weak frontal boundary will remain over the
    western Gulf through today, then move northward as a warm front
    tonight into early Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
    expected near the front over the NW Gulf through early Sun. Areas
    of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural
    fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will
    prevail early next week over much of the basin. Looking ahead, a
    weak cold front could reach the Texas coast early Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    GOES-16 water vapor channels show dry air in the low to mid
    levels over the central and western Caribbean. This is due to
    mid-level ridging, which is causing subsidence. A sharp upper
    trough persists from over the central Atlantic to the Mona
    Passage to northeast Nicaragua. This is also acting to suppress
    showers along and NW of the upper trough axis. However, some
    showers are occurring SE of the upper-trough axis, between the
    ABC Islands and the Leeward Islands. Patchy areas of smoke are
    possible in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of
    Honduras due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of
    Central America. This smoke and associated haze may reduce
    visibilities.

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and lower pressure inland over Mexico is tight enough to
    support fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras. However, the
    high pressure is weak enough that gentle to moderate trade winds
    are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
    of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
    Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to
    strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient
    tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the
    Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere
    across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across
    most of the Caribbean early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    For the waters west of 65W, a cold front enters the waters from
    30N74W to 27N80W near Palm Beach, Florida. A surface trough is
    noted from the northern Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A few
    showers are near the front east of 78W. Scatterometer pass shows
    fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front north of 30N
    and moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front. East of 65W,
    a ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 31N30W westward
    to South Florida. A surface trough is noted from 25N54W to
    17N56W. Moderate to fresh E winds are also possible off the N
    coast of Hispaniola, but generally light to gentle breezes
    persist across the subtropical Atlantic within a few hundred nm
    of the surface ridge axis. East of 65W, a ridge extends from
    1023 mb high pressure near 31N30W westward to South Florida. The
    subtropical ridge dominates north of 20N. Fresh to locally
    strong N to NE winds are noted off the northwest coast of
    Africa, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally
    fresh trade winds are south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

    For the forecast, the cold front will move from 29N65W to 28N70W
    to Stuart, Florida this evening. The front will stall and weaken
    early Sun and dissipate late Sun. Fresh winds are expected N of
    the front today. S of the front a weak high pressure ridge
    extends from the central Atlantic W-SW into the Bahamas and will
    persist east of the area through Sun. High pressure will
    reorganize across the W Atlantic Mon and Tue leading to moderate
    to fresh southerly winds W of 75W.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun May 2 07:39:00 2021
    548
    AXNT20 KNHC 021028
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun May 2 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
    10N14W to 07N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
    01N30W TO 01S35W to 02S42W. Isolated to scattered moderate
    convection prevails between Africa and South America, generally
    from 05S-06N.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A squall line has formed in the NW Gulf, and extends from the
    Louisiana coast near 30N92W to 24N96W as of 0900 UTC. Strong
    thunderstorms are within 30 nm of the squall line. The
    thunderstorms are being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, due
    to the positioning of a mid-upper level shortwave trough over
    Texas. The squall line will shift eastward to the north-central
    Gulf of Mexico by early afternoon today. Some of these storms
    could be severe, with strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and
    isolated waterspouts.

    Elsewhere, fresh SE winds are noted to the NW of the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Gentle E-SE winds are east of 86W. Gentle wind speeds
    are also in the SW Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail from the NW
    Yucatan to the Texas/Louisiana border, with 3-4 ft seas over the
    west-central and SW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

    Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from
    agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow
    will prevail early this week over much of the basin, with
    occasional locally strong SE winds over the south-central and SW
    Gulf Mon night and Tue. A weak cold front will sink slowly into
    the NW Gulf Tue evening and reach SE Louisiana to the W Bay of
    Campeche Wed night before stalling and weakening.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Subsidence and dry air cover the Caribbean Sea, as shown by
    GOES-16 water vapor channels. There may be isolated showers over
    the far SE Caribbean, close to the coast of Venezuela. Isolated
    showers and tstorms are noted in the far SW Caribbean south 11N to
    Panama and NW Colombia. An isolated shower is also noted near the
    Tiburon Peninsula of SW Haiti. The remainder of the Caribbean is
    free of any precipitation due to the dry air.

    An earlier ASCAT pass showed moderate trades across most of the
    Caribbean, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba and
    gentle NE-E winds in the far SW Caribbean. The ASCAT pass missed
    the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh E winds are likely occurring.
    Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

    Fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through
    today before increasing to fresh to strong tonight through Wed
    night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge
    and lower pressures over Central America. Gentle to moderate
    winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through today,
    becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean throughout
    the coming week. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW
    Gulf of Honduras from agricultural fires in Central America.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 31N56W to 27N62W to 27N76W. A
    stationary front continues W along 27N to West Palm Beach Florida.
    Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 45 nm of the
    front mainly east of 59W. Moderate E winds are north of this
    front. A surface ridge axis with light to gentle winds is located
    to the south of the front from 23N-27N. The ridge axis extends
    from the NW Bahamas east to 25N71W to 26N54W to a 1024 mb high
    pressure near 30N38W. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of 28N
    between 50W-76W, while 2-4 ft seas prevail east of the Bahamas and
    north of the Caribbean.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the front will weaken as it stalls
    along 27N this morning. The frontal remnants will then drift N
    this afternoon and gradually dissipate this evening. The high
    pressure ridge south of the front will persist east of 75W through
    today. High pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc Mon and
    Tue leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds N of 25N and W of
    75W, and moderate to fresh tradewinds S of 24N.

    Farther east, a weak upper-level low near 26N42W is producing some
    showers. Moderate trade winds prevail from 07N-22N across the
    tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Strong N
    winds are occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco, where
    seas are 8-9 ft. These winds will persist through Mon.

    $$
    Hagen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun May 2 15:09:00 2021
    674
    AXNT20 KNHC 021801
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
    near 05N09W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 00N47W.
    Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails between
    Africa and South America, generally from 05S-07N E of 25W, and
    scattered showers W of 25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, the squall line over the northern Gulf has
    weaken. Strong thunderstorms can not be ruled out for this
    afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe, with strong
    wind gusts, frequent lightning and isolated waterspouts. A
    surface trough has been analyzed from the Louisiana coast near
    30N90W to 245N92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
    within 30 nm of the trough. The thunderstorms are being enhanced
    by upper-level diffluence, due to the positioning of a mid-upper
    level shortwave trough over Texas.

    Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted over the
    western Gulf and fresh SE winds NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.
    Gentle E-SE winds are east of 86W. Gentle wind speeds are also
    in the SW Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail from the NW Yucatan to
    the Texas/Louisiana border, with 3-4 ft seas over the west-
    central and SW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

    Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early this week over
    much of the basin, with occasional locally strong SE winds over
    the south-central and SW Gulf Mon night and Tue. Thunderstorms
    associated could be strong to severe with gusty winds. Areas of
    smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural
    fires in SE Mexico. Fresh to strong SE return flow will prevail
    through Tue night over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will
    sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue night and reach from Louisiana
    to the SW Gulf Wed night before stalling and weakening.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Subsidence and dry air cover the Caribbean Sea, as shown by
    GOES-16 water vapor channels. There are scattered showers over
    the far SE Caribbean, from a line extending from the coast of
    Venezuela to Guadeloupe Island. Isolated showers and tstorms are
    noted in the far SW Caribbean south 11N to the coast of Panama
    and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean is free of
    precipitation due to the dry air. ASCAT pass showed moderate
    trades across most of the Caribbean, except for light to gentle
    winds in the lee of Cuba and gentle NE-E winds in the far SW
    Caribbean. The ASCAT pass missed the Gulf of Honduras, where
    fresh E winds are likely occurring. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
    of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the ridge is over Bermuda is contributing to
    fresh E to SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras today. These winds
    should increase up to strong tonight through Wed night as the
    pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower
    pressures over Central America. Moderate to fresh trades will
    continue elsewhere across the basin through at least Thu night.
    Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf of Honduras
    from agricultural fires in Central America.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 29N54W to 26N60W to 28N74W, where it
    transitions to a stationary front to 29N80W and continues across
    the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
    and isolated tstorms are within 45 nm of the front mainly east
    of 60W. Moderate N winds are north of this front E of 57W. Two
    surface ridge axis are located to the north and southeast of the
    front. The ridge axis to the east extends from 57W to 19W. Ridge
    E of 60W, light easterly winds are noted with seas 4 to 6 ft
    south of 28N and 8-9 ft north of 29N. In the western Atlantic
    near the coast of FL and the Bahamas, seas remain around 2 to 4
    ft.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening cold front is
    stalling today. The frontal remnants will then drift northward
    and gradually dissipate tonight. South of the front, high
    pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc Mon and Tue leading
    to moderate to fresh S winds north of 25N and west of 75W, and
    moderate to fresh SE tradewinds south of 24N. These winds will
    relax to gentle to moderate on Wed and Thu.

    Farther east, a weak upper-level low near 27N40W is producing
    some showers. Moderate trade winds prevail from 07N-22N across
    the tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Strong
    N winds are occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco,
    where seas are 8-9 ft. These winds will persist through Mon.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon May 3 17:42:00 2021
    967
    AXNT20 KNHC 032130 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    2130 UTC Mon May 3 2021

    Updated Caribbean Sea section to include mention of smoke

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2115 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from through coastal sections of
    Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 02N20W to 01N29W, where recent
    scatterometer data indicates that it transitions the ITCZ to
    01N40W and to 02N50W. Numerous strong convection is from the
    Equator to 07N E of 14W. Numerous moderate to strong within within
    180 nm north of trough between 13W-17W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of axis between
    20W-25W and within 120 nm north of trough between 25W-29W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    The gradient between high pressure near Bermuda and low pressure
    over the south-central U.S. is producing moderate to fresh
    southeast to south winds over the area, with a small area of
    strong southeast SE winds to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
    Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, on average, except for 5-7 ft
    north of the Yucatan Peninsula and 1-3 ft east of 85W. No
    significant precipitation is currently occurring over the basin.
    Low stratus clouds and areas of haze are seen in the NW Gulf
    extending about 120 nm offshore from the coast of Texas, reducing
    visibilities to 2-4 miles in some spots.

    For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong southeast to south
    will prevail through Tue over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front
    will cross the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from the Louisiana
    coast to the SW Gulf on Wed before stalling and weakening. Fresh
    northerly winds will briefly develop behind this front Tue night
    into Wed over the far western Gulf. Another weak cold front may
    cross the northern Gulf Thu night into Fri before stalling and
    weakening over the central Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...Updated

    A mid-level ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles is
    producing subsidence and very dry air over the Caribbean Sea north
    of about 14N as shown by GOES-16 water vapor channels. In the
    southwestern Caribbean satellite imagery shows scattered showers
    and thunderstorms south of 13N W of 80W. Scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms south of 11N between the coast of
    Colombia and 80W. The tail-end of an upper-level trough in
    combination with modest low-level convergence is helping to
    trigger off a small area of scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection over the southeastern Caribbean that includes
    the southern Windward Islands as reported in recent surface
    observations from that part of the sea.

    Recent ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across
    the basin, with the exception of fresh, to at times, strong
    southeast to south winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh east
    winds are noted within 120 nm offshore the coast of Colombia
    between 72W- 76W. Seas are 3-5 ft across most of the basin, except
    5-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft south of Cuba and in
    the far southwestern Caribbean.

    Dense smoke from agricultural fires in northern Honduras and in
    Belize is noted on GOES-16 to be spreading northward over the
    Gulf of Honduras and to just northeast of Belize. Visibility may
    be reduced due to the smoke.

    For the forecast, a western Atlantic high pressure ridge along
    27N-28N will support moderate to fresh trades across much of the
    basin this week. Fresh to strong south SE winds with locally
    higher seas will change little over the Gulf of Honduras through
    Wed night, then begin to diminish through Fri as the pressure
    gradient relaxes across the region.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Recent ASCAT data depicts a surface ridge that extends from a
    1025 mb high center located north of the area near 34N41W west-
    southwestward to 28N73W and to central Florida. The ASCAT data
    also shows generally light to gentle winds north of 25N between
    37W- 75W. Higher wind speeds of moderate to fresh intensity are
    north of 25N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
    south of 22N west of 63W and over some areas south E of 63W.
    Seas west of 63W are 3-5 ft, and 4-6 ft east of 63W. Farther
    east, a stationary front extends from near 32N49W to 29N55W, then
    begins to dissipate to near 28N63W. A rather sharp upper-level
    trough over this same area is enhancing convection east of the
    front north of 29N between 46W-49W. Isolated showers and
    thunderstorms are within 150 nm south of the front between 49W-
    54W. Seas north of 27N between 45W-60W have subsided to 5-6 ft
    as the northwest there decays. A 1018 mb low is near 32N24W,
    with an occluded front extending from it to 31N22W, then
    transitions to a cold front to 28N33W and to 27N25W, where it
    begins to dissipate to near 27N29W. An ASCAT pass over that part
    of the Atlantic has mainly fresh southeast to south winds ahead
    of the cold front north of 30N and east to 21W. Isolated showers
    are possible near the cold front.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic high pressure ridge
    will generally support moderate winds through Wed, with locally
    fresh winds north of Hispaniola. A cold front is expected to move
    off the southeastern U.S. coast Wed night into Thu, then move
    across the waters north of 24N through Fri night while gradually
    weakening. In the far eastern Atlantic, north to northeast winds
    will increase to fresh to strong speeds through Wed night offshore
    Morocco and Western Sahara, occasionally reaching near gale force
    off Morocco.

    $$
    Aguirre
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue May 4 14:39:00 2021
    706
    AXNT20 KNHC 041520
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue May 4 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1430 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
    11N14W to 04N24W to 03S30W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to
    03S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
    located from 02N-08N between 07W-17W. Scattered moderate
    convection is located from 00N-06N between 17W-29W, and from
    01N-07N between 35W-44W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Fresh to strong SE-S winds are in the central Gulf north of 22N,
    and in the southwest Gulf, with moderate to fresh return flow
    elsewhere west of 87W. Gentle to moderate return flow is noted
    east of 87W. Seas are 5-8 ft west of 87W, and 3-6 ft east of 87W.
    No significant precipitation is currently occurring across the
    region. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern
    Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at times over
    the western and central Gulf.

    Fresh to strong southeast winds will continue over the central
    Gulf today ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move
    off the Texas coast this afternoon, stall over the northern Gulf
    through Wed night, then move southeastward across the rest of the
    basin Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are
    expected across the western and central Gulf this weekend as high
    pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western
    Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting
    fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean.
    Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the
    Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the northwest Caribbean and 3-6 ft
    elsewhere. The northeast Pacific monsoon trough extends across
    Panama and northwest Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are occurring south of 12N and west of 77W as well
    as south of 13N between 58W-65W. Smoke and haze from agricultural
    and wildfires over Central America are reducing visibilities
    below 7 nm in the Gulf of Honduras.

    A ridge north of the area will support moderate trades across
    much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist
    over the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras,
    through mid-week. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke are
    possible in the northwest Caribbean from agricultural fires in
    Central America. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central
    Caribbean this weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weak low to mid level feature is supporting a cluster of showers
    and thunderstorms from 27N-29N between 76W-80W. Surface ridging
    extends westward from 1026 mb high pressure north of the area near
    34N45W to central Florida. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
    generally moderate. A weak trough extends from 31N48W to 28N55W
    with a few showers. Another surface trough extends from 31N28W to
    21N33W with scattered showers on either side of the trough. Seas
    are generally 4-7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic, except 2-4 ft
    north of 27N and west of 60W.

    West of 65W, a ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate winds
    across most of the region through mid-week. A cold front is
    expected to move east of northern Florida Thu night, then move
    across the waters north of 24N through Sat while gradually
    weakening.

    East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish
    Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally
    be 3-6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep
    convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

    $$
    Lewitsky
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed May 5 14:40:00 2021
    404
    AXNT20 KNHC 051757
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed May 05 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1630 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of western Africa
    near 09N14W to 04N20W to 00N34W. The ITCZ begins near 00N34W and
    continues to 01N42W to near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is noted from 00N to 08N E of 20W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from 29N91W to 24N98W. Scattered showers
    are within 60 n mi of the front, and moderate northeasterly
    winds are noted west of the front. A surface trough extends from
    28N92W through a 1010 mb low centered near 21N95W to 18N94W.
    A weak diurnal surface trough is over the eastern Bay of
    Campeche. Neither of these features are producing significant
    convection. Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural
    fires over southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the
    SW Gulf of Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to
    continue for several more days. Across the remainder of the Gulf
    basin, generally fair weather prevails with gentle to moderate
    winds.

    The cold front will become stationary over the northern Gulf
    this afternoon. High pressure building in behind it will act to
    push the eastern part of the front to the far eastern Gulf by
    early Fri evening. Mooderate to fresh southeast winds are
    expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend and into
    early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward.


    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Generally moderate to locally fresh easterly trades cover the
    majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are
    likely still continuing north of Honduras in the NW
    Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery
    shows a line of moderate showers, associated with the monsoon
    trough that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama
    to northern Colombia, continues over the southwest Caribbean S
    of 11N. Scattered patches of showers embedded in the trade winds
    are noted mainly E of 77W.

    The ridge north of the area will support moderate
    trade winds over much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE
    winds will continue in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of
    Honduras, through tonight. Hazy sky conditions and areas of
    smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are expected
    to continue through the end of the week. Stronger trades are
    likely in the central Caribbean on Sun as high pressure builds
    to the north.


    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
    anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 35N23W, 34N37W,
    and a 1024 mb high near 27N61W. This ridge is responsible
    for a large, expansive area of gentle to moderate winds, 2 to 4
    ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western
    Atlantic Ocean, north of 15N-20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh
    trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south
    of 15N-20N. The only other surface feature of note is a trough
    over the eastern Atlantic that extends from 31N32W to 27N34W,
    generating scattered showers.

    The ridge along 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across
    most of the region through tonight. A cold front will move over
    the northwest waters Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the
    Straits of Florida on Fri. The northern part of the front will
    continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through
    Sat night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build
    along 31N in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge
    will shift eastward Mon as another cold front approaches the far
    NW waters.

    $$
    Latto
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri May 7 12:50:00 2021
    459
    AXNT20 KNHC 071729
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri May 7 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to
    03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 01S46W along coastal
    Brazil. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
    located east of 05W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to
    07N between 15W and 22W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from the Florida peninsula near 27N82W to
    the W Gulf near 23N96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the
    Florida Keys in the Gulf west-southwestward to 24N87W. Winds are
    light to gentle south of the front and moderate northeasterlies
    north of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf. Scattered
    showers exist within 60 nmi of the front and the trough. SAB
    analysis of satellite imagery indicates light to medium smoke
    south of 27N and west of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico from
    agricultural and wildfires fires in southern Mexico.

    A cold front across the eastern Gulf will push southward east of
    90W through tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected
    in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky
    conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are
    likely across the SW Gulf for several more days.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A 1025 mb Bermuda High has shifted east-southeastward to 28N44W
    in response to a cold front north of the Bahamas. The reduced
    pressure gradient is forcing only fresh E trades north of
    Colombia and light to gentle E trades elsewhere across the
    Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and
    only 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection
    is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with
    the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica
    near 10N83W to 10N77W.

    A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over
    most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across
    the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the
    north.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 55W, a surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb Bermuda High west-southwestward to 25N77W. A cold front extends from 31N75W
    to the Florida peninsula at 26N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends
    from 28N78W to the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection
    is noted north of 27N between 75W and 78W. Elsewhere, scattered
    showers are occurring within 60 nmi of the front and the trough.
    SW winds north of 28N ahead of the front are fresh to strong,
    while NW winds north of 29N behind the front are also fresh to
    strong. Elsewhere the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3
    to 5 ft north and east of the Bahamas and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N between 50W
    and 60W.

    The cold front will move across south Florida later today. The
    northern part of the front will shift eastward across the
    northern waters through Sat night. A cold front will move south
    of 30N into the waters east of Florida Tue night.

    East of 55W, a surface ridge extends between 1025 mb Bermuda
    High at 28N44W to 31N25W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
    only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N and 4 to
    7 ft south of 20N. No significant deep convection is occurring
    away from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. As the Bermuda High builds in
    place, trades will strengthen to fresh to strong Sat to Mon
    before relaxing again on Tue. Seas will increase slightly in
    response. On Mon and Tue a N swell will build seas north of 20N
    to 6 to 8 ft.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun May 9 12:04:00 2021
    177
    AXNT20 KNHC 091021
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun May 9 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enter the Atlantic ocean through northern
    Guinea near 11N15W, then continues SW to near 02N28W. The ITCZ
    extends from 02N28W to 01N33W to 02N40W to 00N50W. A cluster of
    moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the W coast
    of Africa covering the waters from 05N-09N between 11W-14W.
    Similar convection can be found from 00N-04N between 23W-28W, and
    from 02N-04N between 40W-52W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored on a 1021 mb high
    pressure located east of NE Florida. A surface trough has developed
    near the NW Yucatan peninsula. Under this pattern, mainly moderate
    to fresh SE return flow prevails over the west-central and NW
    Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds are near and ahead of the surface
    trough, and mainly gentle winds are noted over the eastern Gulf.
    Scatterometer data also suggest the presence of another trough
    just W of Florida along 82W/83W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
    observed on the E side of the trough affecting the waters from the
    Florida Keys northward to about 26N. Seas are generally 4-6 ft W
    of 90W, and 2-4 ft E of 90W, except 1-2 ft in the NE part of the
    Gulf. A few clouds are noted, particularly across the western
    Gulf in a moist SE flow.

    The pressure gradient between the ridge across the Gulf region
    and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support fresh
    to locally strong SE return flow across the NW Gulf today. A
    surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
    evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and
    dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Moderate to fresh
    easterly winds will be associated with this trough. Light hazy
    conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are
    likely across much of the Gulf today. A stationary front will
    linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers
    occurring along the boundary. Building high pressure across the SE
    CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Thu.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh
    to strong trade winds across parts of the east and south-central
    Caribbean, mainly from 11N to 14N between 66W and 76W. The aerial
    extent and strength of the trades will increase tonight and Mon as
    high pressure builds N of the basin. During this period, winds of
    20-30 kt are expected with building seas of 8-11 ft. A recent
    altimeter pass shows seas to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia.
    Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of
    Honduras through Thu night

    Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers, is affecting the
    eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are noted over southern Haiti. Elsewhere, shallow
    moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move
    across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
    A diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of a deepening mid to upper-level
    trough over the central Caribbean is helping to induce the clouds
    and shower activity over the eastern Caribbean. A good amount of
    moisture will persist over this region today and Mon, and will
    reach Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgins Islands later today,
    increasing the likelihood of showers. Moisture will spread over
    Hispaniola later on Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 60W: A cold front stretches from 31N62W to 27N68W where
    it becomes stationary to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of
    Florida. A few showers are along the frontal boundary, especially
    between Andros Island and the Florida Keys. A 1021 mb surface high
    pressure over the western Atlantic waters near NE Florida extends
    a narrow ridge eastward over the waters to the north of the NW
    Bahamas, producing light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow.

    The stationary part of the front will weaken today as the cold
    front continues to move across the Atlantic before it dissipates
    by Mon evening. Another cold front will clip the northern forecast
    waters on Wed, and stall on Thu. Then, the front will move southward
    across the region as a low develops along the frontal boundary,
    and moves NE.

    East of 60W: The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
    under the influence of a ridge. A mid to upper-level low is
    centered near 25N45W generating some shower activity from 22N to
    28N between 38W-45W. A surface trough extends from 29N27W to
    27N35W to 28N44W. Satellite derived wind data show moderate to
    fresh trade winds across the southern periphery of the ridge,
    mainly from 10N-24N E of 35W toward the W coast of Africa, and
    from 03N- 20N W of 35W. Patches of low level clouds are seen
    across the tropical Atlantic.

    $$
    GR
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun May 9 14:58:00 2021
    454
    AXNT20 KNHC 091721
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun May 9 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through central Guinea
    near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends
    from 01N25W to 01N35W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is noted within 180 n mi N of the ITCZ
    and within 150 n mi of either side of the monsoon trough.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1025 mb high
    pressure located east of NE Florida. A weakening surface trough
    is propagating NW over the Bay of Campeche producing locally fresh
    winds. Generally moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern
    half of the Gulf basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are
    noted over the western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas
    are generally 4 to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 7 feet over the
    NW Gulf. East of 90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some showers
    near the Florida Keys, fair weather continues over the entire
    Gulf today.

    The pressure gradient between a ridge across the
    Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will
    support fresh to locally strong SE return flow across the NW
    Gulf today. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan
    Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning.
    Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this
    trough. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf
    coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary.
    Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front
    across the Gulf on Thu.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scatterometer data from late this morning indicates fresh to
    locally strong E to NE trades are occurring over the south-
    central Caribbean Sea, particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W.
    Generally moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. A
    surface trough extends from 17N64W to 10N65W and is interacting
    with a diffluent pattern aloft to support scattered moderate
    convection S of 14N between 62W and 70W, and scattered showers
    within 150 n mi of the trough axis N of 14N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft
    over the south- central Caribbean Sea, and mainly 3 to 5 ft
    elsewhere.

    A ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to
    strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu
    night. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf
    of Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture will increase
    the likelihood of showers across the eastern Caribbean through
    Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A dying frontal boundary extends into the area of discussion near
    31N61W and continues to near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers
    and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 n mi of the front.
    1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N69W producing light to gentle
    winds N of 29N W of 70W. Mainly moderate winds are noted elsewhere
    W of 70W. A broad ridge of high pressure anchored by a 1028 mb
    high centered near 33N44W dominates much of the remainder of the
    tropical and subtropical Atlantic basin, producing moderate to
    fresh trades S of 24N, and mostly gentle to moderate winds N of
    24N. The only other notable features in the area are a surface
    trough extending from 25N30W to 27N42W producing isolated moderate
    convection, and a dissipating stationary front along 31N between
    15W and 25W. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft
    S of 24N.

    The dying front is expected to completely dissipate by tonight
    into Mon morning. Another cold front will move southward across
    the western Atlantic on Wed, and stall on Thu. The front will then
    move southward across the region as a low develops along the
    frontal boundary and moves NE.

    $$
    Latto
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue May 11 14:44:00 2021
    551
    AXNT20 KNHC 111732
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue May 11 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1640 UTC.

    ...Special Features...

    Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
    ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
    strong winds N of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W
    Africa. Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for Agadir from
    11/12Z through 12/12Z. The forecast calls for northerly winds
    Force 8 in the Beaufort Wind Scale with gusts and at times very
    rough seas.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
    of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 07N19W to 02N26W. The ITCZ
    continues from 02N26W to 00N32W to 00N43W to the coast of Brazil
    near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along
    and south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 07N between 11W to
    21W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough
    and ITCZ from 00N to 09N between 20W to 30W and from 02S to 03N
    between 35W to the coast of Brazil.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico. A
    quasi-stationary front extends along the north-central and
    northwest Gulf coast. This is a focal point for convection
    particularly along the north-central Gulf Coast. Scattered
    moderate to strong convection is noted N of 29N between 86W to
    91W. There is another area of scattered moderate convection in
    the SW Gulf, S of 22N between 95W to 97W. The latest
    scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in
    the western Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf.
    Seas range 3-6 ft.

    A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters today producing moderate
    to locally fresh southerly winds across the western half of the
    Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern half.
    A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
    evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to
    fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A
    frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf coast
    through tonight. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will
    push a late-season cold front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is
    expected to extend across the Straits of Florida and the
    southern Gulf by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
    follow the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A diffluent pattern aloft east of an upper-level trough axis
    continues to support showers across the eastern Caribbean,
    especially portions of the Lesser Antilles into Puerto Rico and
    Hispaniola. Farther south, scattered moderate to strong
    convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of
    Nicaragua southward into Panama. This convection is noted S of
    12N between 80W to 84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
    strong winds north of Colombia with fresh winds across the south
    central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in
    the eastern Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades are in the NW
    basin with the stronger winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
    range 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean. In the
    south-central region, seas range 6-11 ft and upwards of 7 ft in
    the Gulf of Honduras.

    High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the
    Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the
    south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are
    also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed
    night. A moisture surge will continue to affect parts of the
    east and central Caribbean today while gradually diminishing.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    See the Special Features section for more information on the
    Gale Warning near Agadir.

    W of 65W: High pressure extends across most of the western
    Atlantic. A surface trough extends southward to the central
    Florida coast from 31N79W to 28N80W. Showers are noted near the
    NE Florida coast. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted
    across the region with seas 3-5 ft.

    A cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on
    Wed. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal
    boundary allowing the front to move across the northern forecast
    waters Thu and Fri, reaching the waters S of 27N on Sat. High
    pressure will follow the front.

    E of 65W: A ridge will continue to dominate this area today. Two
    troughs are located in the central and eastern Atlantic. The
    first one extends from 29N50W to 26N53W. The other extends from
    31N32W to 25N35W. No significant convection is associated with
    these features. Light to gentle winds are noted across the area
    with seas 5-7 ft.

    $$
    AReinhart
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed May 12 17:41:00 2021
    966
    AXNT20 KNHC 121745
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed May 12 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...Special Features...

    Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
    ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
    strong N to NE winds north of 20N and within about 150 NM of the
    coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has
    continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through 13/12Z. The forecast
    calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to
    the coast with rough to very rough seas.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The ITCZ extends from 02N41W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W.
    There is not oceanic monsoon trough today. A surface trough
    extends from 03N24W to 06N20W. Scattered moderate convection is
    present from 03N to 06N between 20W and 30W as well as from 00N
    to 03N west of 37W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the coast of Louisiana
    near 29N91W to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. Pre-frontal
    troughs are present from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W to
    29N88W as well as 25N94W to 21N97W. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is occurring from 23N to 25N west of
    94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 28N
    between 88W and 92W. Winds across most of the Gulf ahead of the
    front are SE light to moderate, except for fresh SE winds in the
    SW Gulf. Winds north of the cold front are NE gentle to
    moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central and W Gulf, and only
    2 to 3 ft in the E Gulf. Smoke and haze from agricultural and
    wild fires in Mexico and Central America are reducing
    visibilities slightly over the SW Gulf of Mexico, though this
    may mix out with the shower and thunderstorm activity in the
    area.

    The cold front will push southward in the western Gulf later
    today, then gradually stall and weaken across the southern Gulf
    through Fri. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected
    across the basin Fri through Sun.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to a
    1009 mb low over Colombia is contributing to strong NE to E
    trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh to moderate to
    fresh E trades elsewhere. Scattered showers are present in the
    SW Caribbean south of 12N in association with the NE Pacific
    monsoon trough that extends across Costa Rica and Panama to
    coastal Colombia near 10N76W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over S central
    Caribbean and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere.

    High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
    trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to
    strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
    Warning near Agadir.

    Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb Bermuda/Azores High at
    35N28W west-southwestward to 28N80W. E to NE trades south of the
    ridge are only light to moderate. No significant deep convection
    is noted away from the ITCZ, though scattered showers are
    present from 20N to 27N between 32W to 42W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
    across the tropical N Atlantic.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the
    northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near Bermuda to
    South Florida by early Fri, from 31N65W to the Straits of
    Florida by early Sat, before stalling north of Hispaniola
    through Sun.

    For the forecast east of 55W, little change to winds or seas are
    expected through Fri night. Beginning Sat morning, a cold front
    will move across the waters north of 27N and reach 52W by Sun
    night. Winds on both sides of the front will be fresh to strong
    and seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere a reduced pressure gradient
    will weaken the trades across the Atlantic on Sat and Sun.


    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu May 13 15:44:00 2021
    823
    AXNT20 KNHC 131756
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu May 13 2021

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
    through 1745 UTC.

    ...Special Features...

    Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the
    Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support
    gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France
    has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through at least 14/12Z.
    The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally
    gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to
    07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 01N40W to the mouth of
    the Amazon River near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 02S to 06N between 20W to 50W, while a few scattered
    showers linger N of the monsoon trough near the coast of Africa.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front passes through the Florida Peninsula to the south
    of the Big Bend area of Florida, then westward to 90W. It
    transitions to a stationary front across the western Gulf to
    near Veracruz, Mexico. A surface trough is also observed ahead
    of the front near 24N90W to 17N93W. Numerous showers and
    isolated strong thunderstorms are noted along the surface trough
    and scattered moderate showers are along the frontal boundary.
    Scattered showers and multi-layered overcast skies prevail
    across most of the Gulf of Mexico, south and east of the frontal
    boundary. ASCAT data this morning showed fresh northerly winds
    along the coast of Mexico west of the front, and moderate to
    fresh northerly winds north of the front off the coast of
    Mississippi. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft
    in the eastern Gulf.

    In the forecast, the cold front will reach Naples, Florida to
    25N94W to Veracruz Mexico Fri, then it stalls from the Straits
    of Florida into the west-central Gulf Fri night then lift
    northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly
    flow will persist over most areas into early next week as high
    pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough is across Panama and Costa Rica. No organized
    areas of convection are noted in the region, only isolated
    passing showers in the prevailing trade wind flow. The pressure
    gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to lower pressure
    over Colombia is contributing fresh to strong NE to E trades
    over the south-central Caribbean and fresh to moderate trade
    winds elsewhere, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to
    11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5 to 6 ft in the Gulf of
    Honduras, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

    High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
    trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds
    and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the high
    pressure shifts eastward and weakens.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
    Warning near Agadir.

    A cold front extends west-southwestward from low pressure of
    1016 mb near 34N60W southwestward to near Jacksonville, Florida.
    Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms associated
    with the front are noted north of 28N between 73W and 81W. Multi-
    layered overcast skies prevail W of 66W and north of the
    northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE
    winds north of the front. Elsewhere, a broad ridge and fair
    weather conditions span across the entire subtropical Atlantic
    Ocean. The ridge axis extends from high pressure near 32N30W to
    26N64W to 20N40W. Winds are light to gentle in the vicinity of
    the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh trade winds are generally
    south of 20N across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 7-8 ft north
    of the cold front, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-7 ft
    south of 20N.

    In the forecast, the cold front will extend from Bermuda to South
    Florida Fri, and from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida Sat. The
    front will stall and dissipate north of Hispaniola Sun and Mon.

    $$
    Torres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat May 15 08:50:00 2021
    595
    AXNT20 KNHC 150952
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat May 15 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    GALE WARNING: A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR
    area, has been issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are
    forecast to be present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000
    UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
    near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 07N40W,
    then continues along the Equator/01S, from 40W to 47W. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06.5N
    between 07W and 24W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
    noted from 00N to 06.5N between 30W and 51W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A dissipating cold front passes through the western Straits of
    Florida, to 24N95W. A surface trough continues from 24N95W and
    curves to the northern coastal areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
    of southern Mexico. A surface trough is in the coastal plains and
    the coastal waters of the western sections of the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds prevail within
    150 nm N of the front across the Gulf, and across the waters
    within 180 nm of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

    Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is seen across
    the Bay of Campeche south of 20N, and across western portions from
    21.5N to 24.5N west of 94.5W to the Mexican coast.

    The current dissipating stationary front from the Straits of
    Florida to 24N95W will lift slowly northward and dissipate through
    Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist over most areas
    through Tue as high pressure builds north of the area.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
    Panama about 80 nm to the north of its border with Colombia,
    beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An
    upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to central
    Nicaragua. An upper level trough passes through 17N60W in the
    Atlantic Ocean, toward the ABC Islands. Drier air in subsidence
    is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 12N northward from 75W
    eastward and is producing stable weather conditions generally east
    of 80W. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail across south central
    portions of the basin south of 14.5N. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted across the Gulf of Honduras south of 16.5N.

    The current Atlantic Ocean high pressure ridge, that is extending
    W-SW to the central Bahamas, will support fresh to strong trade winds
    in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds and seas will
    gradually diminish late Sat through Mon as the high pressure
    shifts eastward and weakens. Tradewinds will increase across the
    south-central Caribbean late Mon through Wed as high pressure
    builds across the W Atlc.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR area, has been
    issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are forecast to be
    present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000 UTC.

    A dissipating cold front passes through 31N62W to 28.5N74W ,
    through the far northern Bahamas and extreme SE Florida and
    through the Straits of Florida. Winds are generally E around 15 kt
    north of the front and east of 75W, while a surge of NNE winds
    around 20 kt was captured by overnight scatterometer data offshore
    of NE Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina to the west of 77W.
    Seas there are 8-9 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are seen
    elsewhere W of 65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
    north of 27N between 56W and 66W, on either side of the front.

    A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center near
    32N32W to the central Bahamas. This broad ridge is supporting
    moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Tropical Atlantic south of
    21N, where seas are 6-8 ft.

    The current cold front will sink slowly southeastward and weaken
    through Mon, and dissipate late Mon as it becomes E to W aligned
    along 25N. Winds will increase north of 25N and west of 70W late
    Tue through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

    $$
    Stripling
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat May 15 18:55:00 2021
    299
    AXNT20 KNHC 152229
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun May 16 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2215 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    East Atlantic Gale Warning: A recent ASCAT pass depicts gale
    force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco, north of 30.5N and
    east of 12W, in the Agadir marine area. The forecast from Meteo-
    France calls for a continuation of gale force winds in this area
    through 16/0000 this evening. After that time, winds will subside
    to about 25 kt.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
    to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 05N34W to 07N44W. A
    westward moving surface trough extends from 07N46W to 03N48W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 09N and west of
    30W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf of Mexico from
    19N94W to 22N98W. CIRA layered precipitable water imagery and
    GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor channels indicate abundant
    moisture over the W Gulf. As a result, scattered showers are
    occurring west of 94W. A 1025 mb high pressure centered over
    North Carolina and Georgia is spreading ridging over the
    northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail over
    the basin, with seas of 4-6 ft.

    High pressure over the Gulf waters will support a continuation
    of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over most areas through Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Weak mid to upper level ridging prevails across the Caribbean,
    which is keeping subsidence and relatively dry air across the
    basin, with little to no significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT
    pass depicts moderate to fresh trades across the south-central
    Caribbean. Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean, with
    gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the NW portion of the
    basin. Seas are 7-9 ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean,
    4-6 ft over the eastern and north-central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft
    in the NW portion of the basin.

    The Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the area will shift
    eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas tonight through
    Mon. Trade winds will increase across the south-central Caribbean
    late Mon through Wed as high pressure builds across the W
    Atlantic.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the far eastern Atlantic near the
    coast of Morocco. See the Special Features section above for
    details.

    A cold front extends from a 1017 mb surface low centered near
    30N62W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are near and within 90 nm SE
    of the front. The latest ASCAT pass depicts mainly gentle to
    moderate winds on both sides of the front. However, fresh NE
    winds prevail east of northern Florida, mainly north of 28N and
    west of 77W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring to the NW of
    the low pressure, mainly north of 31N. Seas are 6-8 ft east of
    Florida and 5-7 ft across the remainder of the western Atlantic,
    to the E and NE of the Bahamas. To the east, surface ridge prevails
    across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high
    centered near 33N28W. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds
    prevail from the Canary Islands to Morocco, with seas of 8-12 ft.
    Seas are 4-6 ft over the central subtropical Atlantic north of
    20N, with gentle winds. Seas are 6-8 ft over the tropical
    Atlantic south of 20N, with moderate to fresh trades

    The front will dissipate west of 65W by Sunday. Winds will
    increase north of 25N and west of 70W late Tue through Wed as
    high pressure builds across the W Atlantic.

    $$
    ERA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun May 16 07:05:00 2021
    712
    AXNT20 KNHC 161020
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun May 16 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0920 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 10N14W to 05N25W.
    The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 02N39W to 04N47W. A surface
    trough is along 49W/50W from the Equator to 09N. Scattered
    moderate to strong is from 03N to the monsoon trough between 08N
    and 25N, and within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 25W and
    45W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    1024 mb high pressure centered over coastal Georgia extends SW to
    the central Gulf, producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds across
    the basin. A small area of strong easterly winds continues to
    shift westward away from the Florida coast, across the Big Bend
    region. Low level moisture embedded in the SE return flow across W
    portions of the Gulf is producing broken multilayered clouds, and
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of the
    coasts of Texas and Mexico north of 21.5N.

    The high pressure across Georgia will shift slowly into the
    western Atlc through Tue to support moderate to fresh E to SE
    winds over the basin. Active weather will continue across the NW
    Gulf today. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue
    through Thu as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 11N74W through
    the Colombia/Panama border and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. A
    middle to upper level trough extends from the central Tropical
    Atlantic SW to the central Caribbean along 75W, producing fair
    weather. At the surface high pressure centered across the NE
    Atlantic extends W-SW to the southern Bahamas and is supporting
    fresh to strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean
    south of 14N. Gentle to model trades prevail elsewhere. Widely
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 120
    nm of the coast of Nicaragua, and across the Yucatan Channel to
    the Isle of Youth, Cuba.

    The current Atlantic Ocean ridge will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly tonight through Mon. Trade
    winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Thu night as high
    pressure builds across the W Atlc.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    A dissipating cold front passes through 31N53W to 28.5N60W to
    the central Bahamas near 24N76W. 1015 mb low pressure is just
    north of the area near 32N68W and is helping to produce moderate
    to locally fresh N to NE wind to the north of the front, where
    seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE wind swell. The low is forecast to shift
    E-NE during the next 24-36 hours and intensify, to produce gale-
    force northerly winds across its western semicircle. This will
    continue to spread moderate to large NE winds into the northern
    waters behind the front. Scattered moderate convection is seen
    along and within 150 nm SE of the front to the north of 25N.
    To the east of the front, a surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb
    high pressure center near 33N27W to 24N70W. This broad ridge is
    supporting moderate tradewinds across the Atlantic south of 20N
    where seas are 6 to 8 ft.

    The current weakening frontal boundary will drift SE and dissipate
    through Tue. Winds will increase north of 24N and west of 68W
    late Tue through Thu as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

    $$
    Stripling
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon May 17 13:19:00 2021
    650
    AXNT20 KNHC 171643
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon May 17 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO...

    A strong pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Azores High near
    33N27W and lower pressures over NW Africa will support developing
    gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is
    called AGADIR. The gale-force winds are forecast to start at
    17/1500 UTC, and end possibly at 18/0600 UTC. Seas are forecast
    to range from 9 to 12 feet.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
    Guinea near 10N15W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to
    03N61 along the coast of NE Brazil. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N and east of 23W.
    Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and
    west of 35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge over the SE United States along with a trough over
    N central Mexico is producing E to SE moderate to fresh winds
    across the Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate convection
    is noted within 120 NM of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the week.
    This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin
    through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue
    through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A 1027 mb Bermuda High centered near 38N70W along with a 1010 mb
    Colombian Low near 10N76W is contributing to fresh to strong NE
    to E trades in the S central Caribbean and gentle to moderate E
    trades elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the S central Caribbean
    and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. The tail end of a shear line extends
    across central Cuba to 21N83W and is causing scattered showers
    from 20N to 22N between 78W and 83W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted south of 10N in the SW Caribbean.

    The Bermuda High NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and
    weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade
    winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    A cold front extends southwestward from a 1006 mb low at 32N53W
    to 25N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N67W,
    where it transitions to a shear line to central Cuba. Winds north
    of 28N behind the front are NW fresh to strong, while ahead of the
    front are SW to W fresh to near gale. Seas in these winds are 8
    to 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of
    the front east of 60W, while scattered showers are occurring
    within 60 NM of the front/shear line west of 60W. A ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb Azores High at 33N27W to 22N65W. NE
    to E trades south of the ridge are moderate to fresh. Elsewhere
    winds across the tropical N Atlantic are light to moderate with
    seas of 4 to 7 ft.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening frontal boundary from
    25N65W to the central Bahamas will drift SE and dissipate through
    late Tue. Its remnants will drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure
    gradient between high pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal
    boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N
    of 23N and W of 68W with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue
    through Fri.

    For the forecast east of 65W, the strong to near gale winds
    associated with the cold front will lift north of the area by late
    Tue. Swells of 8 to 10 ft will continue north of 27N east of 65W
    through Wed night. NE to E trades south of 20N will continue as
    moderate to fresh for the next several days.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue May 18 14:59:00 2021
    885
    AXNT20 KNHC 181756
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue May 18 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF
    MOROCCO...

    The surface pressure gradient between the 1026 mb Azores high
    pressure center that is near 35N22W and the comparatively lower
    surface pressures in West Africa is supporting gale-force winds
    in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The
    sea heights there are ranging from 9 to 11 feet. The winds are
    forecast to diminish below gale-force at 19/0000 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
    10N14W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 03N36W to
    the NE coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 05W and 24W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the ITCZ
    between 37W to 49W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weak surface ridging continues across the northeastern Gulf of
    Mexico due to high pressure located over the mid-Atlantic
    states. An ASCAT pass at 1500 UTC revealed fresh SE winds across
    most of the basin associated with the pressure gradient. Seas
    are 5 to 7 ft across the basin.

    A broad area of diffluence and middle level troughing over the
    Gulf continues to interact with the moist return flow at low
    levels and is producing clusters of strong convection across SW
    Louisiana and within 150 nm offshore SE of the Louisiana and
    Mississippi coastlines. A similar area of scattered convection
    is north of the Yucatan Channel from 22N-25N between 85W-88W.

    For the forecast, high pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts
    extending SW to the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary
    throughout the week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    today through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains and northern Mexico.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure across the NE Atlantic extends W-SW across the
    central Atlantic and weakly north of the NE Caribbean. The
    associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to fresh
    tradewinds across the basin. Generally fair weather prevails
    across most of the basin under the stable influence of an upper
    level ridge. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen across
    the coastal waters of Cuba, north of 20N, due to associated
    moisture from a stationary front extending from the central
    Bahamasacross central Cuba. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over most of the
    basin, the exception being off Colombia and NW Venezuela where
    seas are 5 to 7 ft.

    The monsoon trough extends into the basin from the eastern
    Pacific ocean through Panama. Scattered strong convection is
    within 100 nm offshore of Panama and NW Colombia.

    For the forecast, the high pressure across the NE Atlc will
    maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin through
    Wed. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Sat
    night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
    Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras
    mainly at night through Thu night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    A lingering cold front extends from 31N44W to 25N54W to 24N55W
    then becomes stationary to the central Bahamas to central Cuba.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the
    front. High pressure over the middle Atlantic coasts is
    supporting moderate to fresh E-NE winds to the north of the
    stationary front and west of 55W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. East
    of 50W, winds ahead of the cold front are fresh to locally
    strong from the S-SW.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will
    gradually become aligned E to W along 23N through Thu then sink
    southward to 21Nand dissipate by Fri night. The pressure
    gradient between high pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the
    frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong
    easterly winds N of the front and W of 68W Wed through Fri
    morning, with seas peaking around 11 ft E of the Bahamas late
    Wed through early Thu.

    Farther east, an elongated ridge axis extending from a 1026 mb
    high centered near 35N22W is allowing for gentle to moderate
    anticyclonic flow, except for near the Canary islands where NE
    winds become fresh. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Satellite
    imagery suggests an area of suspended African dust across the
    Tropical Atlantic south of 17N from the W African coast to 40W.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed May 19 15:54:00 2021
    600
    AXNT20 KNHC 191731
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed May 19 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1730 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N40W
    to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from the
    Equator to 08N between the coast of Liberia west to 29W and
    Between 33W to 51W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A weak stationary front continues from the Atlantic Ocean through
    the south-central Bahamas and across the Straits of Florida along
    22N84W. High pressure centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras
    extends a surface ridge S-SW across the Florida Big Bend toward
    to the north central Gulf of Mexico. An outflow boundary extends
    from the northern coast of Louisiana westward to South Texas
    producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection across
    Texas coastal waters. The associated pressure gradient between the
    ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is producing fresh to
    strong winds across much of the Gulf, with strongest winds across
    the NE Gulf to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas are 8 to 9
    ft and building across this area, as well as through the Straits
    of Florida where strong early winds and blowing counter to the
    Florida Current. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere except lower across
    the Bay of Campeche. scattered moderate isolated strong convection
    is noted across this area of strongest surface winds from the
    Straits of Florida to southeast Louisiana.

    Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger across the NW
    Gulf of Mexico over the next day. A strong ridge from eastern
    seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
    the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the ridge
    and a deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains and
    northern Mexico will result in fresh to strong SE winds and high
    seas across the Gulf region today through Sat. Except peak seas of
    10-13 ft on Thu and Fri in the Straits of Florida with 12 ft seas
    in the central Gulf on Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weak stationary front continues across the wester Atlantic and
    through the south-central Bahamas and the Florida Straits along
    about 22N. This is producing a modest pressure gradient across
    the basin, with only moderate to fresh Trade winds presently. A
    small area of fresh to strong SE winds are occurring across the
    outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. In the southwest Caribbean,
    the monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure centered
    over northern Colombia near 10N73W westward to Nicaragua and the
    Costa Rica border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany
    This boundary along the coastal areas of Panama. Most of the
    low-level moisture is concentrated to the north near the
    stationary front and in the western Caribbean with scattered
    showers present. Stable atmospheric conditions persist across the
    central and eastern portion of the basin.

    High pressure across the NE Atlc extends weakly north of the
    eastern Caribbean and will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds
    across the basin today. As high pressure continues to build across
    the western Atlantic, trade winds will increase fresh to strong
    basin wide this evening through Sun night. Expect fresh to strong
    easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu
    night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    A cold front bisects the Atlantic Ocean this morning, and enters
    the discussion area through 31N37W to 25N46W. The front then
    becomes stationary and continues along about 22N68W to 22N84W.
    A 1027 mb surface high pressure center is located offshore of
    Cape Hatteras this morning. The pressure gradient between this
    high and the front is producing an area of fresh NE to E winds
    across the waters east of Florida to 67-70W, where seas are 7
    to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150
    nm south of the frontal boundary across the Atlantic, the Bahamas
    and through the Straits of Florida.

    East of the frontal boundary, a ridge prevails, extending from
    1078 mb high pressure near 36N20W through 31N28W to the Turks
    and Caicos Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of this
    ridge is producing moderate to locally fresh tradewinds across the
    Tropical Atlantic south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.

    N-to-NE winds have diminished below gale-force in the METEO-
    FRANCE forecast area offshore of Morrocco, that is called AGADIR.
    Winds to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft continue across this area.

    In the forecast, the stationary front will linger across this
    area through Thu morning. The front will weaken on Thu as it
    sinks southward and approaches the Windward Passage and
    Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between high pressure
    off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an
    area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 65W
    Wed through Fri. Seas will peak around 10 ft E of the Bahamas
    late Wed through early Thu.

    $$
    MTorres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu May 20 15:15:00 2021
    210
    AXNT20 KNHC 201744
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu May 20 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1640 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    A 1012 mb non-tropical low is located about 600 NM east of
    Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later
    today while it moves generally northward. The low is then
    forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters
    tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical
    cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The
    system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a
    more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. Currently S
    strong winds are associated with the low in our marine area
    north of 29N between 46W and 52W with seas to 9 ft. These
    conditions should diminish south of 31N by tonight. For more
    information on this developing low pressure area, please see
    High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
    14N16W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from there to 04N52W along
    the coast of NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    between 01N and 06N west of 43W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Scattered moderate convection is occuring north of 20N between
    90W and 96W in association with a sharp upper-level trough over
    Texas and NE Mexico as well as a surface trough over the NW Gulf
    from 25N94W north-northwestward to the Texas coast near 29N95W.
    While the prevailing winds are gentle or weaker west of the
    trough, winds will be gusty in the vicinity of the thunderstorm
    activity. East of the trough and north of 23N, a strong NE-SW
    pressure gradient is forcing E to SE winds of fresh to strong.
    Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the NE Gulf as well as the Straits of
    Florida. Elsewhere seas are generally 5 to 7 ft.

    Strong thunderstorms are expected to continue across W Gulf of
    Mexico through Fri and will be capable of producing locally near-
    gale force winds and seas to 10 ft. Meanwhile, a strong ridge
    stretching from eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to
    dominate the Gulf waters through the remainder of the week. The
    pressure gradient between the ridge and deepening low pressure
    across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will result in
    fresh to strong SE winds and high seas across the Gulf region
    through Sat. Seas will peak 10 to 13 ft today through Fri in the
    Straits of Florida and 12 ft in the N central Gulf on Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A moderate N-S pressure gradient between ridging north of the
    Bahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is promoting fresh to strong
    E winds over the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of
    Honduras. Elsewhere the trades are gentle to moderate. Seas are
    peaking 6-8 ft just north of Colombia and 5-7 ft in the Gulf of
    Honduras. Elsewhere seas are generally 4-6 ft. Scattered showers
    are present across the N Caribbean and Greater Antilles in
    association with a stationary front that extends over the SE
    Bahamas to central Cuba. Elsewhere very scattered moderate
    convection is noted south of 12N in the SW Caribbean in
    association with the NE Pacific monsoon trough that extends from
    Costa Rica to NE Colombia.

    High pressure off the U.S. East Coast will continue to build
    across the western Atlantic west of 70W through Fri. This will
    bring fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through
    Sat. Fresh to strong winds will also occur in the lee of Cuba
    through Sat. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf
    of Honduras mainly at night through tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See above Special Feature for a non-tropical low centered just
    north of our marine area of responsibility.

    A cold front extends from the 1012 mb non-tropical low at 33N52W
    southwestward to 22N70W where it transitions to a stationary
    front to 23N79W. Scattered moderate convection is located within
    120 NM southeast of the front east of 65W and scattered showers
    are present within 120 NM south of the front west of 65W. Strong
    ridging north of the front is causing fresh to strong NE to E
    winds between 19N and 30N west of 70W. Seas are up to 9 ft east
    of the Bahamas and NE Florida. Elsewhere across the tropical N
    Atlantic, the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh south of 20N
    and gentle elsewhere. Seas are up to 8 ft south of 20N and 4 to
    7 ft elsewhere.

    In the forecast west of 65W, the front will weaken and dissipate
    through Fri as it sinks southward and approaches the Windward
    Passage and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between
    high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary
    will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the
    front and W of 68W through late Fri. Seas will peak around 9 ft
    E of the Bahamas today. Large NE swell will enter the NE waters
    early Sat and spread across the area waters through Mon.

    In the forecast east of 65W, winds and seas are anticipated to
    have little change through Saturday, then diminish slightly on
    Sunday and Mon.

    $$
    Landsea/Rivera-Acevedo
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat May 22 09:02:00 2021
    135
    AXNT20 KNHC 221025
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat May 22 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.2N 62.2W at 22/0900
    UTC or 170 nm NE of Bermuda moving WSW at 3 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds
    are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ana is forecast to remain well
    north of the forecast waters. However, large swell associated with
    the subtropical storm will affect the waters north of 27N between
    60W and 75W through tonight.

    Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: According to the forecast
    from Meteo France, gale force winds will continue today near the
    Canary Islands, and gales will expand toward the coast of Morocco,
    including the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Outside of the
    gales, strong to near gale force winds will cover the area north
    of 26N and east of 24W today. Expect seas to build to 12-14 ft
    offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9-11 ft seas elsewhere north
    of 22N and east of 32W. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas
    Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html
    for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W south of 13N, moving
    W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of
    the wave axis between 46W-52W. The wave could enhance showers
    over the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
    10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N39W to
    03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N
    between 33W and 48W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A well-defined 1009 mb surface low pressure is moving onshore the
    Texas coast near Corpus Christi, with fresh to strong SE winds and
    8 to 10 ft seas over the waters east of the low center. Scattered
    moderate showers are noted across most of the western Gulf of
    Mexico, north of 21N and west of 90W.

    East of 90W, high pressure ridging stretching from the Carolinas
    to the NE Gulf of Mexico is leading to mainly clear skies in the
    NE part of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
    central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, where seas are 8-10 ft. Light
    to gentle winds, and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

    The low pressure near Corpus Christi will move further inland
    today, and winds and seas will diminish across the western Gulf
    waters. Fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the central and
    eastern Gulf through tonight. Seas will gradually subside across
    the north-central Gulf through Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front along 20N is across the Windward Passage and
    eastern Cuba, 20N80W. Scattered showers are along and south of
    the front, from the western tip of Puerto Rico across Hispaniola
    to Jamaica to the Yucatan Channel. Most of the open waters in the
    eastern and central Caribbean south of 18N lack any significant
    precipitation. Fresh to strong E winds prevail over the central
    Caribbean, as well as in the lee of western Cuba and south of 14N
    to the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
    elsewhere. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail over the central Caribbean, with
    4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

    For the forecast, high pressure north of the Bahamas across the
    western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft
    seas across the central Caribbean through Wed.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical
    Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda.

    A stationary front passes through 31N55W, and extends to 25N62W.
    Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are along
    the frontal boundary. Another stationary front extends from 27N51W
    to 21N64W to the Windward passage. Scattered showers and isolated
    embedded thunderstorms are within 120 nm of this front. Fresh NE
    winds prevail in the western Atlantic, between Florida and 75W,
    with fresh to strong E winds in the Florida Straits. Winds are
    gentle to moderate north of 20N between 30W and 65W. Fresh trade
    winds are south of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of
    25N and east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale
    force in the vicinity of the Canary Islands.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 20N will
    slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure gradient between
    high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary
    will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W
    of 70W today. Large swell associated with Subtropical Storm Ana
    near Bermuda will affect the northeast forecast waters through
    early Sun.

    $$
    Mundell
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat May 22 17:47:00 2021
    524
    AXNT20 KNHC 222200
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun May 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.5N 62.4W at 22/2100
    UTC or 180 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
    central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
    kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    convection is within 120 nm NE semicircle with scattered moderate
    convection within 90 nm SW semicircle of Ana. Ana is forecast to
    remain well north of the forecast waters. However, large swell
    associated with the subtropical storm will affect the waters
    north of 27N between 60W and 75W through tonight.

    Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: The pressure gradient
    between a 1034 mb high pressure centered near 40N33W and lower
    pressures over NW Africa is supporting gale force winds near and
    in between the Canary Islands, as well as over the marine zone
    Agadir. Outside of the gales, strong to near gale force winds
    will cover the area north of 25N and east of 24W today. Expect
    seas to build to 12-14 ft offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9-
    11 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and east of 32W. See the High
    Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 13N, moving W
    at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the
    wave axis from 03N to 08N. The wave could enhance showers over
    the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
    10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N34W to
    02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N
    between 13W and 20W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
    22W and 48W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure is centered over the SE United States. Fresh to
    strong E-SE winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico,
    except for the SW Gulf and waters adjacent to eastern Mexico
    where winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over much
    of the Gulf waters, except for the extreme SW Gulf where seas
    are 3 to 5 ft.

    For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
    the next several days. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will
    continue to affect the central and eastern Gulf through tonight.
    Seas will gradually subside across the Gulf waters through Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean
    as well as over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
    elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range over the central
    Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
    support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the
    central Caribbean through Wed.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical
    Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda.

    A stationary front extends from 31N43W to the windward passage. A
    surface trough extends from 30N68W to 27N64W, with a second
    trough from 25N62W to 21N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
    are noted in the vicinity of the troughs and stationary front.
    Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 22N and west of 70W. Gentle to
    moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, fresh trade
    winds prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 25N and
    east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale force in
    the vicinity of the Canary Islands.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front over the SE
    waters will slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure
    gradient between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the
    frontal boundary will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of
    the front to about 26N and W of 70W through tonight. Large swell
    associated with Subtropical Storm Ana near Bermuda will affect
    the northeast and central forecast waters through early Sun.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun May 23 07:38:00 2021
    907
    AXNT20 KNHC 231043
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun May 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Ana is centered near 35.7N 60.5W at 23/0900 UTC
    or 300 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
    central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
    kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
    nm in the western semicircle. Seas up to 12 ft extend 90 nm in the
    western semicircle, in the NE quadrant, and 60 nm in the SE
    quadrant. Ana is expected to continue moving northeast with an
    increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
    Slight weakening is expected over the next 24 hours and Ana is
    expected to dissipate by Monday. Ana will remain well north of the
    forecast waters. However, swell associated with Tropical Storm
    Ana will impact the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W
    today.

    Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Agadir region.
    North to northeast gale force winds will continue through 25/1200
    UTC at least. The latest scatterometer data depicts 35 kt
    northerly winds in this area. Seas are expected to be rough. See
    the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
    France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W south of 15N, moving W
    at 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave
    at this time. The wave could enhance showers over the southern
    Windward Islands and SE Caribbean today.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
    to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N36W to the coast
    of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between
    36W to 51W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic and extends
    across most of the basin. A trough is off the Florida Panhandle
    from 30N86W to 27N87W. No significant convection is associated
    with it. Another trough is located in the southeast Bay of
    Campeche from 22N91W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted near this trough in the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N between
    91W to 97W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the NW Gulf
    off the southeast Texas coast. Meanwhile, fresh to strong E-SE
    winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico with seas 6 to 9
    ft. The SW Gulf has gentle to moderate winds with seas 3 to 5 ft.

    For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
    the next several days. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will
    continue across most of the Gulf through tonight. Moderate winds
    will prevail across most of the basin through midweek. Fresh to
    strong winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan tonight through
    Wed night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the eastern Caribbean near the
    Lesser Antilles, from 11N to 15N between 62W to 66W. Scattered
    moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the SW
    Caribbean near Colombia, S of 12N between 76W to 83W. Isolated
    thunderstorms are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to
    strong easterly winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
    the 6 to 8 ft range over the central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
    support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 10 ft seas across the
    central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong
    winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
    Ana north of the area near Bermuda and the Gale Warning in Agadir.

    A stationary front lingers north of the Hispaniola and Puerto
    Rico, from 28N53W to 19N69W. A trough is to the west of the front
    from 26N63W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is noted from 19N to 31N between 54W to 72W.
    Otherwise, high pressure extends across the rest of the western
    Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure off the Florida coast
    near 30N75W. Ridging also extends across the central and eastern
    Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high near the Azores. Fresh
    easterly winds prevail along the Bahamas southward toward
    Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in addition to near 31N62W. Elsewhere,
    gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas range 6 to 8 ft.

    For the forecast west of 65W, fresh easterly winds will continue
    across the Bahamas with moderate winds elsewhere across the
    region. Large swell associated with Tropical Storm Ana near
    Bermuda will impact the region today. Quiescent conditions are
    expected Mon through midweek.

    $$
    AReinhart
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun May 23 17:35:00 2021
    769
    AXNT20 KNHC 232104
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Mon May 24 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2100 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Depression Ana is centered near 37.5N 57.7W at 23/2100
    UTC or 470 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
    speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The upper shear continues to
    be strong, and Ana remains an exposed with no significant
    convection near its center. Ana is expected to weaken below
    tropical storm strength tonight as it continues to move to the
    northeast, then dissipate Mon. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 90
    nm in the southeast quadrant and 60 nm in the northeast and
    southwest quadrants, with seas below 12 ft in the northwest
    quadrant of the storm.

    Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds
    to gale force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least
    24/06 UTC and gales to strong gales the Agadir region through at
    least 25/12 UTC. Meteo-France is also forecasting winds to gale
    force for the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are
    expected to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are
    due a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over
    the Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See
    the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
    France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
    to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N45W to the coast
    of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between 36W
    within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A trough is analyzed from off the northwest tip of the Yucatan
    Peninsula to the south-central Gulf. The pressure gradient
    between these troughs and 1024 mb high pressure centered off
    northeast Florida is supporting generally fresh E to SE winds and
    5 to 8 ft seas in a broad swath from northwest Cuba across the
    central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off Texas. Gentle to moderate E
    to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft persist elsewhere. A few showers are
    possible over the west central Gulf, ahead of the trough, but
    otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. No
    significant smoke or haze is noted as well.

    For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
    the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds
    through Tue night, and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder
    of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly
    off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Thu night. Seas will
    continue to subside to less than 8 ft by tonight.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper trough extends from west of Bermuda to over the Mona
    Passage to over the north-central Caribbean south of Hispaniola.
    Divergence aloft on the eastern side of this trough is supporting
    clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands.
    Isolated showers are noted in the trade flow in a few areas around
    the basin, but otherwise no significant shower or thunderstorm
    activity is evident elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds
    with 6 to 8 ft seas are ongoing off Colombia to about 15N.
    Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
    south- central Caribbean through Wed as high pressure remains over
    the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in
    the lee of Cuba through Tue night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
    Ana north of the area and northeast of Bermuda and the gale
    warnings in off Morocco and near the Canary Islands.

    1024 mb high pressure is centered off the northeast Florida coast
    near 30N79W. East of this, an upper trough extends from west of
    Bermuda to over the Mona Passage, supporting a surface trough
    reaching from the Mona Passage northward to 27N60W. Divergence
    aloft on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting
    scattered showers between these surface troughs, specifically
    from 22N to 25N between 60W and 65W. NW swell related in part to
    T.S. Ana is supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over the open waters west of
    65W. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of
    20N, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure centered over the Azores.
    In addition to the gales off northwest Africa described in the
    Special Features section, this pattern is supporting moderate to
    fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft south of 20N and west of 35W.

    For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE swell
    will continue to impact the forecast waters through tonight. A
    frontal trough is supporting some shower and thunderstorm activity
    over the SE waters, including the NE Caribbean. A ridge will
    dominate the forecast region over the next several days producing
    moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 23N, gentle to moderate E
    winds from 23N to 27N, and mainly light and variable winds N of
    27N where the ridge axis will prevail.

    $$
    Christensen
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon May 24 14:24:00 2021
    630
    AXNT20 KNHC 241820
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon May 24 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts north to northeast gales to
    strong gales to continue in the the Agadir region through at
    least 25/06 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in
    this area. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast
    products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
    to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 0351W at the coast
    of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
    south of 07N east of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is
    occurring between 04N and 08N west of 38W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A trough stretches across the eastern Bay of Campeche from
    24N89W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is between 22N
    and 25N between 90W and 95W. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge
    northeast of the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds noted across
    the basin with light winds in the SW and NE Gulf. Seas range 3
    to 6 ft.

    The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
    days. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds can be expected through
    Tue night and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the
    forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off
    the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Fri night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the monsoon
    trough in the SW Caribbean S of 12N west of 78W. Strong trade
    winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean with moderate to
    fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are up to 8 ft near Colombia with 5
    to 7 ft across the rest of the basin.

    Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central and
    portions of the southwest Caribbean as well as across the
    Windward Passage through Wed night. This is due to a ridge
    extension of the Azores high into the northern Caribbean and
    strong high pressure over the northwest Atlantic. Moderate to
    locally fresh winds are expected to dominate the central and
    eastern portions of the basin through the remaining forecast
    period. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate
    the region through early Wed evening with fresh to strong winds
    pulsing at night in the Gulf of Honduras.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for details on the gale
    warning near Agadir.

    A trough extends from 31N55W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate
    convection exists within 300 NM east of the trough axis. High
    pressure extends off the western Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb
    high near 28N77W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N
    between 70W to 80W. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail across the
    western Atlantic with seas 4 to 6 ft.

    High pressure also extends across the central and eastern
    Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high near the Azores. This is
    supporting gale force winds near Agadir. Moderate to fresh winds
    are noted across this area of the Atlantic with fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds off the Morocco and Western Sahara
    coast. Seas 6 to 8 ft are noted in the central Atlantic with 10
    to 15 ft off the western African coast.

    For west of 65W, the ridge of high pressure will dominate the
    forecast region over the next several days producing moderate to
    fresh easterly winds S of 25N and gentle to moderate E winds
    from 25N to 27N. Light and variable winds will prevail
    elsewhere.

    For east of 65W, the strong breeze to strong gale N to NE winds
    north of 23N and east of 20W will steadily diminish over the
    next two days. By Wednesday night, winds will be moderate or
    weaker in the area. Elsewhere little change in the tradewinds
    for the next few days. The large seas near NW Africa will also
    steadily diminish and drop below 8 ft by Wednesday night.
    Elsewhere seas will remain generally 4 to 7 ft.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue May 25 18:44:00 2021
    276
    AXNT20 KNHC 252335
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Wed May 26 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2315 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 14N
    southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted east of the wave axis from 00N-10N.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N34W to
    the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Outside the convection
    associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered
    showers are noted within 100 nm on either sides of the ITCZ
    between 30W-42W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
    high centered over the western Atlantic. With this, dry
    conditions prevail across the basin. Latest scatterometer data
    depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the whole
    area. Seas are ranging between 2-5 ft.

    For the forecast, gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast
    through Sat night, with fresh to locally strong northeast to
    east winds pulsing at night off the Yucatan Peninsula with the
    typical thermal trough.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough stretches across Panama into the eastern
    Pacific. This is the focal point for scattered moderate
    convection in the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 11N and west of 74W.
    Fresh to strong trade winds are in the south-central Caribbean
    south of 16N between 72W-80W with seas 6 to 9 ft. An area of fresh
    winds is also noted over the Windward Passage with seas 3 to 5
    ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail with seas up to 5 ft.

    Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central and
    portions of the southwest Caribbean through Thu. By Thu evening,
    winds will become moderate to locally fresh and continue through
    Sun night. In the northwest Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds
    will dominate through Wed with strong winds pulsing at night in
    the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage through Wed night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
    moving west across the eastern Atlantic.

    A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N78W. This is
    bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable winds with
    seas 4 to 5 ft across the western Atlantic north of 25N.
    Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the
    southern Bahamas south of 25N. To the east, high pressure also
    prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by
    1029 mb high E of the Azores. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
    west of 30W with seas 4 to 6 ft. Fresh NE winds are north of 15N
    and east of 30W. Another area of fresh NE winds is south of 15N
    and west of 30W.

    Light winds will prevail through Wed across most of
    the western Atlantic as high pressure extends over the region.
    Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue over southern
    Bahamas and near the Greater Antilles through Wed night. Winds
    will become gentle to moderate by Thu and through the weekend.
    Otherwise, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the
    NE Florida coast on Fri ahead of a cold front forecast to come
    off the southeastern CONUS late this weekend.

    $$
    ERA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed May 26 15:00:00 2021
    518
    AXNT20 KNHC 261805
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed May 26 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that has been
    relocated to near 28W from 10N southward, moving W around 15-20
    kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N
    between 27W to 30W. The wave has no significant surface
    component and is analyzed based upon GFS-based 700 mb tropical
    wave diagnostics.

    A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added the surface
    analysis along 13W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
    18W. A surface trough associated with the wave was noted in the
    scatterometer data.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissau
    near 12N17W to 06N20W. ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 05N26W,
    breaks for a tropical wave, then continues again from 05N31W to
    06N53W along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
    18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
    06N between 20W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    south of 10N west of 52W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extending along 30N just north of the Gulf of
    Mexico is promoting generally SE gentle to moderate breezes. No
    significant shower or deep convective activity is occurring
    today. Seas are 2-4 ft over the NE Gulf and 4-5 ft elsewhere.

    Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected today
    through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast
    extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh to
    locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly off
    the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat. A cold front is
    expected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun
    and stall across the region by Sun night. Expect moderate north
    to northeast winds behind the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high north of the
    Bahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is contributing to strong to
    near gale NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean today.
    Elsewhere E trades are moderate to fresh. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW
    Caribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough that
    extends from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the S
    central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

    Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central portions
    of the Caribbean through early Thu as high pressure reside
    offshore of the NE Florida coast. Winds will diminish
    significantly late Thu through Sun night as the high collapses.
    In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate today and
    become gentle to moderate by Thu through Sun. Strong winds are
    expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward
    Passage tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving west across the eastern Atlantic.

    Ridging from a strong 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at
    38N46W extends east-west north of our waters. The pressure
    gradient south of the ridge is forcing NE to E trades that are
    fresh to strong south of 23N with weaker winds farther north. A
    surface trough - associated with a vigorous upper-level trough -
    extends from a weak 1022 mb low at 33N61W to 28N69W. Scattered
    showers are present from 23N to 30N between 55W to 62W. Seas are
    8-10 ft south of 15N west of 40W as well as north of 15N east of
    25W and 5-7 ft elsehwere.

    In the forecast for west of 65W, light winds will prevail north
    of 24N through Thu as weak low pressure just east of Bermuda
    interrupts the Atlantic ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds
    will continue across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through
    early Thu. Winds will become gentle to moderate Thu through Sun
    as the Atlantic ridge extends from the east central Atlantic
    weakly W-SW to Florida. Thu night, moderate to fresh southerly
    winds will develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold
    front forecast to come off the southeastern CONUS late Sat. The
    cold front will push across northern Florida on Sun before
    stalling Sun night.

    In the forecast for east of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
    weaken some on Thu leading toward a reduction in the NE to E
    trades to moderate to fresh. Seas should diminish across the
    waters below 8 ft by Fri.

    $$
    Landsea
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu May 27 15:54:00 2021
    738
    AXNT20 KNHC 271740
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu May 27 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W south
    of 13N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection noted with 300 nm of either side
    of the wave from 01N to 06N. Another area of similar convection
    is noted east of the wave from 02N to 05N between 05W to 16W.

    Another tropical wave has its axis along 42W south of 12N. It is
    moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is located under a
    more stable upper environment that is marked by subsidence and
    dry sinking air found behind an upper-level trough. Scattered
    moderate convection is west of the wave to the coast of Brazil
    from 03N to 07N. ASCAT data from earlier today notes a surge of
    fresh NE winds west of the wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is
    identified between the tropical waves from 05N26W to 04N39W.
    Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm north of the ITCZ
    between 28W to 34W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge dominates the Gulf anchored by a 1022 mb surface high
    pressure center over the western Atlantic. A local 1021 mb high
    pressure center is south of the Florida Panhandle near 29N84W.
    High pressure and deep layer dry air apparent in water vapor
    satellite imagery is keeping mainly fair weather conditions in
    place. ASCAT data notes gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
    across the basin. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf and 3 to 5
    ft in the SW Gulf.

    For the forecast, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are
    expected through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE
    Florida coast extends westward to SE Texas and gradually
    weakens. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse nightly to
    strong off the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat. A cold front is
    expected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun,
    then stall across the northern Gulf Sun night. Expect moderate
    north to northeast winds behind the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough is analyzed over eastern Panama into the
    eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate convection associated with
    the trough is in the SW Caribbean, south of 10N. Debris high
    level cloudiness from this activity continues to stream eastward
    over the SW Caribbean.

    ASCAT data from this morning reveals fresh to strong NE winds
    over the central and south-central Caribbean, south of 16.5N.
    Wave heights with these winds are in the 6 to 11 ft range.
    Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across the basin with
    seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft.

    As for the forecast: Fresh to strong trades will prevail across
    the central portions of the Caribbean through early today as high
    pressure resides in the western Atlantic. Winds will diminish
    significantly through early next week as the high collapses.
    Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras and
    the Windward Passage tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    An upper-level low is vividly noted near 27N64W, with a surface
    trough stretching from 30N63W to 23N65W. A very moist and
    unstable atmospheric environment around the upper-level low
    along with upper diffluence is supporting scattered moderate
    convection within 270 nm east of the surface trough. The GOES-16
    geostationary lightning mapper reveals frequent lightning within
    this convection.

    Otherwise, high pressure is anchored in the western Atlantic
    near 31N68W allowing for gentle return flow west of 65W with
    seas of 3 to 5 ft. Farther east, another area of high pressure
    is centered near 37N40W allowing for gentle to moderate NE to E
    winds across the basin. Seas east of 50W range from 6 to 9 ft.

    For the forecast, light winds will prevail north of 24N through
    today as a weak trough along 65W interrupts the Atlantic ridge.
    Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the Bahamas
    and Greater Antilles through this morning. Winds will become
    gentle to moderate later today through Sun as the Atlantic ridge
    extends from the east-central Atlantic weakly WSW to Florida.
    Fri night, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off
    the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge
    off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. A cold front will move
    across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri May 28 09:08:00 2021
    107
    AXNT20 KNHC 281000
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Fri May 28 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W, moving westward at 10 to
    15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of
    the wave axis from 05N to 07N.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, moving westward at 10 to
    15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
    from 01N to 07N between 37W and 43W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
    near 10N14W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N24W.
    It resumes from 06N27W to 06N39W, then resumes from 06N43W to
    07N57W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves
    section, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ
    axis.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by 1018
    mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W. Light to
    gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the vicinity of the high
    center, with gentle to moderate east to southeast winds elsewhere.
    Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 92W, and 1-3 ft east of 92W.

    The area of high pressure will support gentle to moderate east to
    southeast winds through Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds
    will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula through
    Sat. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern
    Gulf Sat night into Sun before stalling across the northern Gulf
    Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind
    the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure prevails north of the Caribbean. Fresh to locally
    strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to
    moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
    over the south central Caribbean, 2-3 ft over the far NW
    Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

    Fresh to strong trades across the south central Caribbean will
    diminish tonight through early next week as high pressure across
    the SW N Atlc weakens. Fresh winds are expected in the southern
    Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N. Gentle to
    moderate winds are noted west of the Bahamas, with light to gentle
    winds elsewhere west of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
    elsewhere north of 20N. In the tropical waters south of 20N,
    moderate to locally fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 3-4 ft
    range west of 60W and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N,
    seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

    for the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will
    develop off the NE Florida coast tonight ahead of a cold front
    forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold
    front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun
    night.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon May 31 08:40:00 2021
    112
    AXNT20 KNHC 311003
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Mon May 31 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 14N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 40W and 46W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, from 15N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 58W and 61W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
    Guinea near 11N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to
    07N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
    from 00N to 11N between 10N and 21W. Scattered moderate convection
    is noted from 04N to 07N between 32W and 40W, and from 05N to 08N
    between 49W and 56W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends from central Florida to the coast of
    Texas near 29N95W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over
    the far SW Gulf west of the Yucatan peninsula, and over the Bay of
    Campeche. Gentle winds prevail over the far NE Gulf. Moderate to
    fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range west
    of 90W and 1-3 ft east of 90W.

    The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh northeast to
    east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan
    Peninsula. High pressure will prevail north of the basin through
    Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure prevails north of the basin. The pressure gradient
    between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure
    over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
    central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the far
    NW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of
    the remainder of the basin.

    Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand
    slightly northward through Tue as high pressure strengthens across
    the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail
    across much of the basin through Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    A cold front extends from 31N76W to near Ft Pierce, Florida.
    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
    60 nm of this boundary. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of
    3-4 ft prevail north of the cold front. Elsewhere, high pressure
    prevails across the basin, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure
    centered near 37N51W. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail north
    of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail across
    the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
    range west of 70W. East of 70W, seas are in the 4-7 ft range,
    except S of 11N between 48W and 59W where seas are reaching 9 ft
    in NW swell.

    For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front off the coast of north
    Florida will weaken through Tue. High pressure will build
    gradually westward into the region late tonight through Wed and
    then prevail through the remainder of the week.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon May 31 17:11:00 2021
    017
    AXNT20 KNHC 311719
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
    FL 1805 UTC Mon May 31 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 13N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 41W and 47W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 14N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 58W and 61W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
    11N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 04N41W where
    it intercepts a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues from 03N45W to
    the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is noted north of the ITCZ from 05N to 09N
    between 48W and 55W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, a weakening stationary front extends from
    Sarasota, Florida to the coast of Texas near 29N95W. High
    pressure centered over the Carolinas is supporting gentle to
    moderate return flow over the entire basin except for west of
    the Yucatan Peninsula winds are locally fresh. Seas are in the
    2-4 ft range across the Gulf.

    The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh northeast to
    east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan
    Peninsula. High pressure will prevail near the U.S. mid-Atlantic
    coast through Wed. Little change is expected through the end of
    the week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure prevails north of the basin. The pressure gradient
    between this area of high pressure and climatological low
    pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over
    the south central and southeastern Caribbean with 6-9 ft seas.
    Gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas,
    and moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the remainder
    of the basin with 3-5 ft seas.

    Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand
    slightly northward through Tue as high pressure strengthens across
    the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail
    across much of the basin through Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN

    A stationary front takes the place of a cold front extending
    from 31N76W to near Ft Pierce, Florida. A mid-upper level trough
    axis extends from NE Florida to the NW Caribbean. Upper level
    diffluence along with a very moist environment around this front
    and the trough is supporting scattered moderate convection over
    the northern Bahamas, north of 23N and west of 74W. ASCAT data
    from 1400 UTC noted strong winds over the N Bahamas and the GOES-
    16 lightning mapper reveals frequent lightning within this
    convection.

    Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3-4 ft prevail
    east of the stationary front to 60W. High pressure prevails
    across the basin, anchored by 1035 mb high pressure centered
    near 38N52W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 20N with seas
    of 4-6 ft. Seas east of 50W, as well as over the waters from 20N
    to the equator range from 5-8 ft.

    For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will weaken
    through Tue. After the front dissipates, scattered showers and
    tstorms will persist this week around the Bahamas region, due to
    an upper-level low that is expected to sit over the area. High
    pressure will build gradually westward into the region late
    tonight through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of
    the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 75W and
    S of 28N Wed through Fri, with gentle winds east of Florida.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jun 1 15:44:00 2021
    750
    AXNT20 KNHC 011740
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W, from 15N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 06W and 22W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, from 13N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection is inland over
    Venezuela and NW Brazil.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near
    05N23W to 07N35W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 03N to 08N between 32W and 40W. Similar convection is
    noted from 01N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary ahead of a cold front
    located over South Texas has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N and west of
    95W. Otherwise, high pressure prevails allowing for moderate E
    winds across most of the basin. ASCAT data notes fresh winds
    west of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west
    of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

    High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week.
    Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW
    Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle
    to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end
    of the week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough passes through northern Colombia into the
    east Pacific. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    associated with the monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean, south
    of 11N and east of 78W. The pressure gradient between higher
    pressure north of the area and climatological low pressure over
    Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south
    central Caribbean with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
    winds are over the NW Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. Moderate to
    fresh winds prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.

    Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will
    prevail today before diminishing. High pressure will prevail
    across the western Atlc through the week. This will support
    moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the basin through
    Sat.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extends from 30N78W to the NW Bahamas to
    24N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    within 1800 nm of the trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of
    3-4 ft are found west of the trough. High pressure dominates the
    remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1032 mb high
    pressure near 36N53W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the
    forecast waters west of 40W, while gentle to moderate winds are
    east of 40W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of 60W. East of
    60W, seas are in the 5-8 ft range.

    For the forecast W of 65W, the surface trough will dissipate
    today. High pressure will gradually build westward into the region
    through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of the week.
    This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across much of
    the forecast waters Wed through Sat.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Jun 2 14:42:00 2021
    356
    AXNT20 KNHC 021721
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, from 12N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is from 02N to 09N between 23W and 34W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, from 10N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No convection is noted in
    the vicinity of the tropical wave at this time.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, from 11N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No convection is noted in
    the vicinity of the tropical wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N16W to
    05N25W. It resumes from 05N28W to 05N39W, then resumes again from
    05N42W to 06N57W. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 11N
    between 50W and 58W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    In the W Gulf, a surface trough is sustaining an area of
    moderate convection from 22N to 25N along 96W. Elsewhere, high
    pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Winds are gentle, with
    seas of 2-4 ft throughout the Gulf.

    High pressure ridging will persist across the
    Gulf of Mexico this week. Fresh northeast to east winds will
    pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
    a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
    elsewhere through the end of the week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper level low over Cuba is producing scattered moderate
    convection from Jamaica to E Cuba. Showers and moderate
    convection are also observed over the SW Caribbean. High
    pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
    between this area of high pressure and climatological low
    pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to locally strong
    winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of
    Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean,
    with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
    range over the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the NW
    Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

    Winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south
    central Caribbean tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, a high
    pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
    trade winds across much of the Caribbean through Sun.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    In the W Atlantic, scattered moderate convection associated with
    an upper level low is noted between Cuba and the Bahamas. A cold
    front extends from 31N19W to 26N37W to 28N45W. The latest ASCAT
    data shows fresh to strong winds north of the front. High
    pressure prevails elsewhere across the forecast waters. Fresh to
    locally strong winds are noted north of Hispaniola with moderate
    to locally fresh winds prevailing throughout the rest of the
    basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin.

    For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
    the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
    moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across much of the
    forecast waters through Sun.

    $$
    Mahoney
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Jun 3 14:43:00 2021
    237
    AXNT20 KNHC 031742
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 12N southward,
    moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N
    to 08N between 31W and 34W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W, from 12N southward,
    moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted with this tropical wave from the equator to
    11N between 53W and 62W.

    The axis of tropical wave is near 77W, from 13N southward, moving
    westward at around 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
    with this tropical wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
    Bissau near 11N16W and continues over the E Atlantic to 05N19W to
    05N25W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 05N25W to 05N30W, and
    from 05N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
    convection exists from 01N to 07N between 10W and 26W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Ridging continues to be observed across the Gulf of Mexico. In
    the S Gulf, a weak trough is analyzed along 92W from 18N to 22N.
    Gentle to moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly
    in the N Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the Bay of Campeche, with
    1-3 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is evident
    in the W Gulf from 22N to 26N between 95W and 97W.

    For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
    forecast waters through early next week. Fresh northeast to east
    winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
    association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE
    winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. An upper-
    level low over Texas will enhance showers and tstorms this weekend
    near the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered
    moderate convection near Guantanamo Bay, with scattered showers
    over the remainder of the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from the Coast of Panama
    north to 11N between 77W and 84W. Recent observations show fresh
    to locally strong trade winds off the coast of central Colombia,
    where seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
    trade winds are noted in the remainder of the basin, with 4 to 6
    ft seas.

    For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
    south central Caribbean the next several nights. Otherwise, a high
    pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
    tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
    Atlantic, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure centered SW of the
    Azores and a 1029 mb high pressure ENE of Bermuda. Gentle to moderate
    winds veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in the central
    Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas are 4-6 ft.

    For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
    the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
    moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
    forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will
    pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours.

    $$
    Mahoney
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Jun 4 09:39:00 2021
    217
    AXNT20 KNHC 040958
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0930 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, from 12N southward,
    moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 06N-09N between 31W-36W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, from 11N southward,
    moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted south of 10N between 60W-65W.

    The axis of tropical wave is near 80W, from 13N southward, moving
    westward at around 5-10 kt. Scatted moderate convection is noted
    from 06N-11N between 79W-83W, with additional showers and
    thunderstorms inland over much of Colombia.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N13W and
    continues over the E Atlantic to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from
    04N24W to 05N36W, and from 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near
    09N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    noted from 01N-09N between 10W-20W. Scattered showers are noted
    elsewhere in the vicinity of both boundaries.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging continues prevails across the basin. Gentle to
    moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly in the N
    Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the W Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas
    elsewhere. A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection across
    the northern half of the basin.

    For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
    forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will
    pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
    a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
    elsewhere through early next week. An upper-level low over Texas
    will enhance convection over the NW gulf waters today and spread
    across the basin through the weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The northern portions of two tropical waves are extending across
    the basin. Please refer to the section above for details.

    An upper level trough extends over the Windward Passage and
    western Caribbean. The trough is enhancing convection across Cuba
    and adjacent waters. Recent observations depict moderate to fresh
    trade winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are reported to
    be 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds are noted in the remainder
    of the basin, except gentle to moderate north of 18N. Seas are in
    the 4-6 ft range, except 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
    south central Caribbean the next several nights. Elsewhere, high
    pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting moderate
    to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through early
    next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
    above for details.

    A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
    Atlantic, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the
    Azores near 34N54W, another 1029 mb high near 34N36W, and a 1030
    mb high centered near 37N24W. Gentle to moderate winds, locally
    strong west of 55W, veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in
    the central Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas
    are 4-6 ft, and 4-7 ft east of 65W.

    For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
    the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
    moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast
    waters through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of
    Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours for the
    next several days.

    $$
    ERA
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Jun 7 14:57:00 2021
    202
    AXNT20 KNHC 071812
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa
    and is currently analyzed along 16W from 13N southward. Scattered
    moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the wave
    axis is from 03N-09N between 05W-19W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 12N southward,
    moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection associated with the wave axis is from 01S-07N between
    30W-41W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 15N southward,
    moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within
    150 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-10N.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 15N southward,
    moving W at 10 kt. The monsoon trough passes through Panama and is
    enhancing convection ahead of the wave. Scattered strong
    convection is south of 12N between 73W-82W, including over NW
    Colombia and Panama. Expect heavy rain to affect portions of NW
    Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Wed.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
    Bissau near 12N16 to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to
    04N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N41W to 03N51W.
    Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above,
    scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 23W-28W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central and western Gulf
    of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from east of northern Florida
    to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and
    isolated tstorms are occurring over the eastern Gulf, mainly east
    of 86W.

    ASCAT data from this morning reveals fresh E winds within the
    Straits of Florida. Fresh SE to S winds are in the west- central
    Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in both locations.
    Moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are elsewhere.

    High pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate to locally fresh
    SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will
    pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
    association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to
    moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlc
    weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico
    late in the week, maintaining tranquil weather conditions with
    slight winds and seas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave is along 75W. See above.

    An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW to
    Costa Rica. Scattered moderate showers are seen on the SE side of
    the upper- trough extending from Puerto Rico and the Virgin
    Islands SW to the Venezuela/Colombia border.

    Fresh to strong trades are in the central and south-central
    Caribbean, with fresh trades within the Windward passage and over
    the NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
    fresh winds are in the E Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-
    central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the remainder of the central
    Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

    Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean,
    Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. High
    pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting
    moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds
    will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high
    pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is
    expected in the east-central Caribbean through Tue due to the
    combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing
    the region. The enhanced showers and storms will migrate to the
    central and SW Caribbean mid to late week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about
    550 nm SE of Bermuda. An upper-level trough extends from the
    upper-low to Hispaniola. A surface trough below the upper-level
    trough extends from 30N57W to 23N58W. Isolated showers remain
    within 70 nm west of the surface trough. Comparatively drier air
    in subsidence seen in water vapor imagery is located in the base
    of the upper trough, between the upper- low and Hispaniola.

    A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N29W,
    about 650 nm W of the Canary Islands. Cloudiness and possible
    light showers are east of the this upper-low, extending to the
    Canary Islands.

    The subtropical ridge extends from a 1029 mb high near 33N38W
    westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Scatterometer data
    from this morning reveals gentle to moderate trade winds north of
    25N with fresh trade winds mainly south of 25N across the basin. Seas
    are 7-9 ft stretching across the tropical Atlantic, south of 25N.
    Seas are 3-6 ft from 25N-31N.

    For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
    along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade
    winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will
    become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to
    strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
    Passage late this afternoon and end overnight.

    $$
    Mora
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jun 8 14:27:00 2021
    793
    AXNT20 KNHC 081716
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern South America: A
    series of tropical waves moving W across the Caribbean will
    combine with the monsoon trough to enhance rainfall over portions
    of Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El
    Salvador and southern Honduras through Thursday. The threat of
    heavy rain may persist into the weekend for portions of Central
    America, as models are suggesting the possible formation of a
    Central American Gyre (CAG). Please consult products from your
    local or national meteorological service for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20/21W from 13N
    southward, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is within 200 nm of either side of the wave axis south
    of 05N.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 12N southward,
    moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
    04N-07N between 44W-49W. An earlier ASCAT pass revealed fresh
    winds associated with this wave north of 06N.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 15N southward,
    moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is mostly inland over Venezuela and eastern Colombia.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 15N southward,
    moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is along and within 200 nm E of the wave axis, over the
    SW Caribbean.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
    12N16W and continues SW to 06N25W to 02N37W. The ITCZ continues
    from 02N37W to 03N45W. Aside from the convection mentioned above,
    scattered to numerous moderate, with embedded scattered strong
    convection is noted from 02S-07N between 23W-35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An upper level trough extends southward from near New Orleans
    across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and tstorms
    are over the NE Gulf between 26N and 30N from 88W to 85W. A
    surface ridge extends from NE Florida into the west-central Gulf
    of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the Straits of
    Florida and the western Gulf. Gentle anticyclonic winds are noted
    over the NE Gulf. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft just off the Texas
    coast, 3 to 5 across the rest of the basin.

    For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
    moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through tonight. Fresh
    easterly winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the NW
    Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By
    midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high
    pressure over the W Atlc weakens. Weak high pressure will spread
    over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil
    conditions through Fri. A cold front will sink southward over the
    SE U.S. on Sat, possibly increasing SW to W winds over the NE Gulf
    this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

    An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and extends SW to
    Central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
    are flaring up southeast of the trough, between 15N and 18N from
    64W to 70W. Fresh winds prevail in the Central Caribbean,
    Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are in the
    NW Caribbean, with gentle winds in the far SW basin. Seas are 5 to
    7 ft over the most of the basin, except 3-5 ft in the NW
    Caribbean, north of 18.5N.

    For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the area will
    support moderate to fresh trade winds through Wed. Winds will
    become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens.
    Scattered showers and tstms are expected over portions of the
    eastern and central Caribbean through today due to the combination
    of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the
    region. The convection is expected to migrate to the SW Caribbean
    mid to late week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
    over the SW Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N69W.
    An upper-level trough extends W-SW from a low near 21N54W to
    another one near 27N70W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seem
    near the first low between 26N and 28N from 69W-71W. Cloudiness
    and light to moderate showers are located south of these
    features.

    The subtropical ridge is situated east-west along 32N across the
    Atlantic Ocean, with 1027 mb high pressure centers near 32N40W
    and 30N62W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail north
    of 25N, with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are south of
    25N, over the tropical Atlantic, where seas are 7 to 9 ft.

    For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
    along 31N through tonight, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE
    trade winds south of 27N. By midweek, winds will become gentle to
    moderate as the high pressure weakens and the ridge moves
    southward. Those conditions will continue through Fri night.
    Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
    Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today and Wed.
    A cold front is likely to emerge off the coast of the Carolinas
    and Georgia this weekend. South of the front, expect SW winds to
    increase to fresh this weekend, north of 28N.

    $$

    Mora/Chan
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Jun 9 13:46:00 2021
    333
    AXNT20 KNHC 091807
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1750 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: A broad
    trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
    Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Significant development
    of this system appears unlikely as it drifts west-northwestward
    or northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of development,
    this system could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia
    and portions of Central America from Honduras southward later
    this week and into the weekend. See products from your local
    meteorological service for more information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 13N southward,
    moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
    is seen within 180 nm on either side of the wave axis, from 04N-
    09N.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 12N southward,
    moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south
    of 09N and along the coast of Brazil west to Guayana.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 15N southward,
    moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
    vicinity of the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal
    and Guinea near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W
    to 08N25W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N30W to 00N42W.
    Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen near the
    coast of Africa from 06N-19N, east of 17W. Scattered moderate
    convection along the ITCZ is observed from 00N to 05N between 33W
    to 37W, and from 04N to 09N between 29W to 32W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends across the Gulf of Mexico providing light
    to gentle anticyclonic winds across much of the Gulf. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are noted over the SE Gulf near a
    surface trough located near 22N93W to 19N96W. A second trough is
    observed over the Bay of Campeche, from 24N85W to 22N88W. Scattered
    showers are noted mainly near the Mexican coast south of 19N with
    this trough. Moderate SE winds prevail across most of the remainder
    of the Gulf, except for fresh ESE in the Florida Straits. Seas
    3-5 ft cover most of the basin, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf near
    Florida.

    For the forecast, fresh easterly winds will pulse each night
    through Thu night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal
    trough. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
    moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western Gulf today.
    By Thu and Fri, winds will diminish as weak high pressure settles
    over the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal trough will sink southward
    over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely inducing moderate SW to W
    winds over the NE Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features and the Tropical Wave section above for
    details on a broad trough of low pressure in the SW Caribbean
    later this week, and a tropical wave currently along 70W.

    Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection stretching
    from the Windward Passage across Jamaica and south of Cuba to 81W.
    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located in
    the SW Gulf, south of 12N between 75W-84W. Scattered showers and
    tstorms are seen over the eastern Caribbean, north of Hispaniola,
    Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles.

    High pressure ridging north of the area will support moderate to
    fresh tradewinds into tonight. Winds will diminish to gentle to
    moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens. Scattered showers and
    tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of
    this week in association with a broad trough of low pressure.
    Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central Caribbean this
    weekend as high pressure ridging becomes re- established along 25N
    over the west Atlantic. For the forecast,

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper level cyclonic trough extends southwest across Hispaniola
    to western Caribbean. Scattered showers and tstorms are east side
    of this feature from Hispaniola north to 25N. At the surface, a
    high pressure ridge extends E-W along 31N across the entire basin,
    anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure near 32N56W. In the W Atlantic,
    gentle to moderate winds are north of 26N. Moderate to fresh
    trades are from 19N-26N. Fresh trades cover the tropical Atlantic
    south of 15N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 7-9
    ft. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of the basin. Further E,
    a surface trough extends from 22N19W to 30N13W with scattered
    showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. N to NE winds
    ranged between 20 to 25 kts over the region.

    For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will weaken
    over the W Atlantic today, allowing winds to diminish to gentle to
    moderate tonight. These conditions will continue into early Fri.
    Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
    Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today. A
    frontal trough is likely to be located north of the area Fri
    through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh to
    potentially locally strong SW winds north of 28N.

    For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong N to NE winds will
    continue to pulse near the Canary Islands and off the coast of
    Western Sahara during the next several days, where seas will reach
    7-8 ft at times.

    $$
    Torres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Jun 10 13:31:00 2021
    970
    AXNT20 KNHC 101804
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1750 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 15W from 18N southward,
    moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is from 03N-09N between Liberia to 20W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 12N southward,
    moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
    09N between 32W to 37W.

    A tropical wave is along 62W from 12N southward, moving W at 15
    kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the NE coast of Venezuela.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 15N southward,
    moving W at 10-15 kt. The monsoon trough intersects the wave at
    10N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
    vicinity of the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
    Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from
    08N21W to 07N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N37W
    to 02N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered
    moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 20W-25W, and from
    02N-06N between 37W-44W, including northern coast of Brazil.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A broad upper-level low is centered over the western Gulf of
    Mexico. Upper-level divergence is enhancing numerous moderate
    convection over the southern Bay of Campeche, south of 20N.
    At the surface, a trough is analyzed from 22N90W to 18N93W.
    Elsewhere, a 1018 mb High centered over the northeast Gulf
    is providing light and gentle winds across the basin with
    seas ranging from 2 to 4 ft, except 1-3 ft in the far NE
    near the center of the high.

    The high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri,
    leading to light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Gentle to moderate
    SE winds will prevail over the southern and western Gulf through
    Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan
    Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A frontal trough will push
    southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, inducing moderate west
    winds over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds will
    prevail on Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin.
    In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
    section, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the Gulf of
    Honduras and along the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate trade winds
    prevail across the much of the basin, locally fresh in the south-
    central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW Caribbean as well as
    the SW Caribbean, north of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
    eastern and central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-5
    ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

    Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail today across the
    basin. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW
    Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a
    broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the
    south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging
    becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh
    winds will then continue over the central Caribbean through Mon. A
    weak tropical wave will enter the southeastern Caribbean today,
    possibly promoting the development of shower activity. The next
    tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean on Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center near
    30N37W westward to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic
    winds are north of 27N between 30W-69W, where seas are 3-5 ft.
    Moderate trades prevail south of 27N. Scattered moderate
    convection is seen north of PR to 26N between 61W-66W. Farther
    east, fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic east of
    60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh NE winds are seen south of the
    Canary Islands.

    For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will
    continue through tonight as high pressure ridging prevails over
    the area. A frontal trough will be located north of the area late
    Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh
    to potentially locally strong southwest winds north of 28N, along
    with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

    $$
    Torres
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jun 20 06:54:00 2021
    910
    AXNT20 KNHC 201039
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 33.3N 85.8W at
    20/0900 UTC or 70 nm WSW of Atlanta Georgia moving ENE at 11 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted within 200 nm in the eastern semicircle. On
    the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the
    southeast U.S. through tonight, move over the coasts of North
    Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and be located
    south of Nova Scotia by late Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is
    expected by late today, and Claudette is expected to become a
    tropical storm again on Monday over eastern North Carolina.
    Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean
    through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-
    tropical cyclone by late Tuesday.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward,
    moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    07N to 11N between 40W-43W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 23N southward,
    moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is noted from 11N to 17N
    between 63W to 67W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from 20N southward,
    moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
    confined to the SW Caribbean, south of 12N and W of 80W. Isolated
    convection is also noted near Cuba, N of 20N between 80W to 82W.

    The axis of tropical wave is near 89W from 20N southward, moving
    W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are present in the vicinity of the
    wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
    11N15W to 07N20W to 07N32W. The ITCZ continues from 07N32W to
    09N37W then continues west of a tropical wave near 06N44W to the
    coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Numerous moderate to scattered
    strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough
    from 00N to 12N and E of 31W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 03N to 07N between 38W to 52W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
    Tropical Depression Claudette.

    A trough extends across the western Gulf from 28N92W to 24N97W in
    addition to the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 19N92W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Gulf, N of 25N
    and W of 90W. Fresh winds continue across the NE Gulf with
    moderate to locally fresh south to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas
    range 4-6 ft in the NE gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, Tropical Depression Claudette is well inland across
    the southeastern U.S. An area of fresh S to SW winds, with seas
    to 8 ft, is expected to continue across the NE Gulf waters N of
    28N between 85W and 90W through this morning. These conditions
    are expected to improve today. Lingering showers and thunderstorms
    can also be expected today across the northeastern Gulf. High
    pressure is forecast to build in across the basin today and into
    early next week. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow
    will set up across the western Gulf later today and continue
    through Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near tropical
    waves as described in the tropical waves section. No other
    significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted.
    Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean
    with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
    range in the south-central Caribbean with 4-6 ft across the rest
    of the basin.

    For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
    Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
    central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE
    winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed
    night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean supporting some
    shower and thunderstorm activity in that area. It will continue to
    enhance showers and thunderstorms across the western and central
    Caribbean through Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    In the western Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast and in the northern
    Bahamas, N of 24N and W of 77W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
    are noted across this region with seas 4-6 ft. In the central
    Atlantic, high pressure ridging extends across the area with no
    significant convection noted. Winds are moderate to fresh S of 25N
    and seas 6-8 ft. North of 25N, light to gentle winds prevail with
    seas 4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb low is noted near
    27N31W with a warm front extending east of the low to 27N28W and a
    cold front west of the low to 30N37W. Showers are along this
    front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in this region with 6-8
    ft seas.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge will dominate the area
    during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are
    expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters,
    including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Thu night.
    Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected to develop over waters
    N of 29N tonight and continue through Mon night.

    $$
    AReinhart
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jun 20 18:18:00 2021
    333
    AXNT20 KNHC 202154
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2130 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 34.2N 82.5W at
    20/2100 UTC or 70 nm W of Columbia South Carolina moving ENE at
    15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
    sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the
    forecast track, the system should continue to move across portions
    of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of
    North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass
    near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some re-
    strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to
    become a tropical storm again late tonight or early Monday over
    eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the
    western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is
    expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tue afternoon or Tue
    night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A new tropical wave is located from 05N to 13N with an axis along
    31W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is
    associated with this wave.

    A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 43W,
    moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    09N to 11N between 40W-46W.

    A tropical wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis near 69W,
    moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
    across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near
    10N15W to 06N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to
    08N40W then continues west of a tropical wave near 08N44W to
    08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
    wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
    01N to 10N E of 24W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Although Tropical Depression Claudette is centered over South
    Carolina and moving NE away from the area, outer rainbands
    associated with it continue to support numerous moderate to strong
    convection along the northern Gulf coast and within 120 nm of
    shore. Some strong winds are likely with this activity as well as
    restrictions in visibility. Moderate to locally fresh return flow
    is elsewhere across the basin with seas with seas ranging between
    3 to 5 ft.

    A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days.
    Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up across
    the western Gulf later this evening and continue through Mon.
    Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early
    morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through Thu
    night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave along 69W is generating a few thunderstorms over
    and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient
    between the Azores high and lower pressure associated with the
    tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the
    eastern half of the basin, with fresh to strong winds occurring
    over the south-central waters. Seas range between 5 and 7 ft.
    Otherwise, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW
    Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds pulse to
    fresh to strong.

    The Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to
    support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean
    through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in
    the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical over
    the eastern Caribbean along 68W will move across the central
    Caribbean on Mon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    With Tropical Depression Claudette move ENE through South
    Carolina, the system will generally remain north of the area.
    However, moderate rainbands are impact areas N of 28N and W of
    75W. The Azores high extends a ridge axis into the area W of 65W
    and supports mainly moderate to fresh return flow. Light to gentle
    variable winds are across the central Atlantic while a stronger
    pressure gradient due to lower pressure over northern Africa
    supports moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Atlantic E of 35W.

    For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the area
    during the next several days. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are
    expected to develop over waters N of 30N W of 70W tonight and Mon
    due to the pressure gradient between Claudette, forecast to move
    into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and the Atlantic high
    pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at
    night over Hispaniola adjacent waters, including approaches to the
    Windward Passage, through Fri night.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jun 22 16:49:00 2021
    375
    AXNT20 KNHC 221730
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave extends along 21W, from 16N southward, moving W
    at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N
    between 19W and 28W.

    Another tropical wave extends along 38W from 11N southward,
    moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
    120 nm on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 07N.

    A third tropical wave runs along 53W from 14N southward, moving W
    at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
    noted from 09N to 14N between 48W and 58W. Enhanced showers and
    tstorms are possible over the SE Caribbean later this week.

    A fourth tropical wave is along 88W, from the western Gulf of
    Honduras southward to the east Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 10
    to 15 kt. Convection over the southwest Caribbean is more related
    to the monsoon trough, described in the Caribbean section.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
    Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N20W to 06N34W. The ITCZ continues
    from 06N34W to 05N37W and then west of a tropical wave from 05N40W
    to 07N52W. Scattered showers are seen within 90 nm either side of
    the ITCZ between 43W and 49W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front is located just inland over Louisiana and Texas.
    Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong
    thunderstorms over the far northwest Gulf of Mexico out ahead of
    the frontal system, north of 27N and west of 92W. A second area of thunderstorms is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
    northwest of 28N and east of 89W. A surface ridge extends across
    the central and southern Gulf of Mexico from the Atlantic. A
    recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE to S winds to the northwest of
    the Yucatan Peninsula with generally moderately wind speeds
    elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4 to 5 feet in the western
    Gulf of Mexico and 2 to 3 feet in the eastern Gulf.

    A ridge from the Atlantic will continue to dominate the Gulf
    region over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are
    expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the
    Yucatan peninsula through Thu night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    A weak upper-level trough is inducing scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms between Puerto Rico and eastern Cuba,
    including Hispaniola and Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is seen in the southwest Caribbean south of
    13.5N west of 76W in association with the monsoon trough. The
    latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trade winds over the south-central
    Caribbean with mainly moderate trade winds elsewhere. Fresh winds
    may also be occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6 to 8
    feet over the central Caribbean with 4 to 6-foot seas elsewhere.

    The Atlantic high pressure combined with the Colombian low supports
    fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean mainly at
    night through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds
    are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night.
    An active tropical wave with axis now along 53W is expected to
    approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu. Fresh NE winds are noted
    ahead of the wave axis.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
    tropical waves moving across the basin.

    West of 55W: A 1025 mb high near 29N59W extends surface ridging
    towards the northwest Bahamas. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh
    southerly winds offshore north Florida and fresh trade winds north
    of Puerto Rico. Winds become gentle closer to the high pressure.
    Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed between Andros
    Island Bahamas and Miami Florida.

    East of 55W: A surface trough is from 31N45W to 21N43W. An upper-
    level low near 31N48W is inducing scattered showers north of 30N
    between 43W and 48W. Ridging prevails across the remainder of the
    eastern Atlantic. Winds near the coast of Morocco are strong to
    near-gale force from the north. Seas of 3 to 5 feet prevail
    across the subtropical Atlantic north of 23N with 5 to 7 ft seas
    across the tropical Atlantic.

    Forecast west of 65W: Fresh S to SW winds are expected across the
    waters off NE Florida through tonight, ahead of a frontal
    boundary located over the southeastern United States. Expect
    scattered showers and tstorms this afternoon and evening in waters
    to the east of northern Florida. A surface ridge will continue to
    dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to locally
    strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola and
    adjacent waters, including approaches to the Windward Passage
    through the end of the week.

    $$
    Hagen/Chan/Nepaul
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jun 26 08:54:00 2021
    639
    AXNT20 KNHC 260926
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from the Cabo Verde
    Islands southward, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to
    isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 11N east of
    32W. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing a tropical
    cyclone within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical
    Weather Outlook at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward,
    moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 05N to 09N between 40W and 44W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward,
    moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed
    from 07N to 09N between 52W and 56W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from Puerto Rico
    southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection behind
    this wave is impacting waters around the Leeward Islands.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward,
    moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    in the NW Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Cuba.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
    Bissau near 12N16W to 05N22W to 05N37W. A segment of the ITCZ is
    analyzed from 04N44W to 04N50W. Aside from convection associated
    with the previous described tropical waves, activity associated
    with the monsoon trough and ITCZ has diminished this morning.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough located over the central Gulf from 26N87W to
    21N90W is inducing scattered moderate convection over mainly the
    SE Gulf from 22N to 27W between 82W and 88W. Generally moderate SE
    winds prevail over the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, highest
    close to the Texas coast.

    For the forecast, the trough will move west through the NW Gulf
    through the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms
    as well as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE
    winds will persist from early to mid week between a trough over
    the far southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western
    Atlantic.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Due to a relatively weak pressure gradient, moderate trades are
    occurring over most of the basin, except gentle SE winds in the
    NW Caribbean and S of 11N. Seas average 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted over Haiti and the Windward Passage.
    An additional area of scattered moderate convection, associated
    with the E Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted south of 12N between
    the Colombia/Venezuela border and 80W.

    For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern
    Caribbean will move westward across the basin through Mon. This
    pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south
    central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with
    gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and
    seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week
    as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the
    wake of the tropical wave.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weak surface trough off the N Florida coast from 30N78W to
    28N78W is no longer producing any significant convection. To the
    east, a deep layer trough from 30N62W to 26N65W is producing
    numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 30N
    between 60W and 67W. Fresh E winds are occurring with this trough
    as well. Elsewhere across the basin, gentle to moderate trades
    prevail, although southwest of the Canary Islands, fresh NE winds
    are observed. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across much of the
    tropical Atlantic. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are present SW of the Canary
    Islands in the area of fresh winds.

    For the forecast W of 65W, the trough S of Bermuda will move
    across the region through Tue, followed by weak high pressure
    through the middle of next week. Generally moderate east wind will
    prevail.

    $$
    KONARIK
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jun 26 16:59:00 2021
    779
    AXNT20 KNHC 262128
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W. A surface low pressure
    of 1009 mb is centered where the wave and monsoon trough
    intersect. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
    from 02N to 14N between 24W to 32W. Some slow development of the
    low will be possible over the next several days while the
    disturbance moves generally westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This
    tropical wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
    within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather
    Outlook at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 17N southward and
    moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
    with this wave.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward and
    moving W near 10 kt. No significant convection is associated
    with this wave.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from 20N southward and
    moving W near 5 to 10 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of
    this wave.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from western Cuba
    southward and moving W near 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted
    across the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N between 79W and 83W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
    Bissau near 12N17W to low pres near 09N28W to 06N42W. Aside from
    convention noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N E of
    20W to the coast of Africa.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough is located over the Gulf from 27N89W to 20N92W.
    Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm
    east of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted
    east of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds west of the
    trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over much of the Gulf
    waters, except the SW Gulf where seas are in the 2-3 ft range.

    For the forecast, a trough over the south-central Gulf will move
    west through the NW Gulf through late Sun, bringing scattered
    showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with
    it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist from early to mid
    week between a trough over the far southeast Gulf and high
    pressure over the western Atlantic.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean.
    Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the Caribbean,
    except for the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds prevail.
    Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern
    Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
    over the south central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next
    week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will
    increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle
    of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into
    the basin.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extends from 31N66W to 25N70W. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm east
    of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft
    are in the vicinity of the trough. Elsewhere moderate to fresh
    winds prevail across much of the discussion waters. Seas of 3-5
    ft prevail over the waters north of 20N, and 4-6 ft south of 20N.

    For the forecast W of 65W, the trough north of 24N between 65W
    and 70W will move across the region through Tue, followed by weak
    high pressure through the middle of next week.

    $$
    AL
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 27 08:47:00 2025
    731
    AXNT20 KNHC 270812
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Thu Feb 27 2025

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of , Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ
    continues from 04N19W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 04S to 04N between 15W and 40W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb
    high centered over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
    of 3-5 ft prevail over the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds,
    and seas of 1-3 ft are over the eastern Gulf.

    For the forecast, a weak and mostly dry cold front will move off
    the Texas coast this morning. The front is expected to reach the
    southeastern Gulf tonight. Fresh northerly winds west of the front
    will diminish Fri afternoon as high pressure builds in the wake
    of the front. Southeast winds are expected to increase slightly
    over the central and western Gulf starting Sun.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the
    central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft
    are over the western Caribbean.

    For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia will
    strengthen toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally
    fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern
    Caribbean through Fri as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. These
    winds will gradually expand in coverage through the upcoming
    weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to develop in the
    lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage early next week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extending from 31N57W to 25N65W becomes stationary
    to the eastern tip of Cuba. Moderate winds are within 90 NM either
    side of the front. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere W of the
    font. Seas of 6-8 ft are in the vicinity of the front N of 28N.
    Elsewhere W of the front, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Moderate to
    fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft generally prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. The next cold
    front will move offshore the southeastern United States tonight.
    This front will reach from near 31N73W to east- central Cuba early
    Fri and from near 31N65W to NW Haiti Fri night, then stall and
    weaken Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of
    the front N of about 27N Fri. High pressure will settle over the
    western part of the area Sat, with generally calm conditions over
    most of the area. Another cold front will move across the western
    and central forecast waters Sun and Sun night, reaching the
    eastern part of the area Mon, with fresh to strong north to
    northeast winds expected south of about 28N and west of the front.


    $$
    AL
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