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TROPDISC: Tropical Weathe
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 15 01:46:00 2021
132
AXNT20 KNHC 141741
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W,
to 05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 03N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is found within 210nm south of the
monsoon trough between 11W and 18W. Scattered showers are located
along and north of the ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 22W and 33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front persists from the Yucatan Channel through the
Straits of Florida and into the western Atlantic. The latest NWS
Doppler Radar data shows a few isolated showers along the frontal
boundary. A 1020 mb high is centered near 24N91W. Gentle
anticyclonic flow driven by this high dominates the Gulf of
Mexico.
The 1020 mb high will weaken and drift E tonight. The stationary
front will dissipate later today. A cold front will move into the
NW Gulf early Fri, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to 22N95W
to southern Mexico south of Veracruz Fri evening. Reinforcing
cold air will increase winds behind the front across the northern
Gulf Fri night and Sat while the front weakens and sinks SE of
the basin. High pressure will prevail over the Gulf Sun and Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from the Yucatan Channel northeast to
the Florida Straits. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh northeast
winds north of the front over the Yucatan Channel. The
Colombian/Panamanian low is located just off the coast of
Colombia near 10N76W. The latest ASCAT data shows an area of
strong trades from the Colombian coast to 14N between 72W and
77W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and isolated showers
span the rest of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
The stationary front from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan
Channel will dissipate later today. Trade winds across the
central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Fri as high
pressure north of the region shifts eastward. A weak cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean Fri night, then stall and dissipate
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Sun.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front entered the western Atlantic this morning and
currently extends from 28N78W to at 1010mb low at 35N72W. Fresh
to strong W to NW winds follow behind the front. A stationary
front extends from 31N64W through the Bahamas to the Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers are near the front from 27N to 32N
between 60W and 70W. A central Atlantic cold front extends from
a low north of the area to 32N50W to 31N52W. Scattered moderate
convection and fresh to strong SW winds are located north of 30N
between 35W and 47W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow extends
over the eastern Atlantic between 20N and 30N.
The weakening stationary front from 31N64W across the northern
Bahamas to the Florida Straits will gradually merge tonight with
the cold front off northern Florida. Expect increasing SW winds
ahead of the new front, north of the Bahamas. Strong W winds will
follow the front north of the NW Bahamas late Sat. The front will
reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat
morning, from 31N61W to 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then
stall and dissipate through Mon.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 16 02:33:00 2021
484
AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N35W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N-10Nbetween 10W-20W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the central
Gulf near 25N90W to the east coast of Mexico near 23N98W. An
ASCAT pass at 1432 UTC revealed fresh N winds in the western
half of the basin and gentle to moderate S-SE flow off the
western coast of Florida. Fresh SW winds are noted in buoy data
ahead of the front over the northern Gulf. Radar as of 1600 UTC
shows showers and thunderstorms east of the front, off the coast
of Florida near 30N84W. Isolated showers are also ahead and
within 50 nm of the front in the central Gulf. Seas range from 4
to 8 ft behind the front. Farther south, a stationary front
reaches from the Straits of Florida to the western Caribbean
Sea.
The cold front from the will move eastward across the entire
Gulf through tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting
strong NW winds and building seas over the northeast and north
central Gulf tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front and support generally tranquil marine
conditions across the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will
shift east of the area early next week, allowing winds and seas
to increase over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high
pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the
coast of NW Cuba, and into the western Caribbean. Showers are
along the front due to light, moist southerly flow overrunning
the frontal boundary. A weak surface trough is noted from the
NE coast of Cuba to 15N82W supporting light showers in the NW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the entire basin
with the exception of just off the coast of Colombia where fresh
to strong trade winds are noted along with seas ranging from 6-9
ft.
The cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will move SE
through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then weaken as it moves
across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate
through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front
north of the region will support expansion of fresh to strong
trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most
of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun through
Tue night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE
winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The stationary front across the Caribbean and the Straits of
Florida extends to 27N64W, where it transitions to a cold front
to 32N58W. A secondary cold front extends from 32N65W to 28N71W.
This front is associated with a rapidly intensifying 995 mb
developing storm center northeast of Bermuda. Recent
scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SW-W wind along and
just ahead of the cold front north of 27N, with seas reaching 10
ft. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted west
of 55W.
Farther east, a 1034 mb high pressure center near Madeira is
supporting fresh to strong NE winds over a large area off the
coast of Africa, east of 40E and south of the Canary Islands.
The cold front sweeping eastward over the waters north of 27N
will reinforce the weak stationary front. The merged front will
continue eastward and move east of 65W late today. The next
cold front will enter the NW waters tonight and reach from
31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning,
from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and
dissipate through Mon. Meanwhile, another front will move off
the NE Florida coast late Sun night, move east and reach from
Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to
eastern Cuba by late Tue.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 16 20:35:00 2021
224
AXNT20 KNHC 161034
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is currently moving
through the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, with
reinforcing cold air moving into the northern Gulf. Strong to near
gale force winds are mixing to the surface, as noted in recent
buoy and platform observations and scatterometer data. Buoy data
also indicates there are frequent gusts to gale force over the
north central Gulf, and a gale warning is in effect through the
morning for the north central and northeast Gulf. Seas are
building to as high as 11 ft in the north central and northeast
Gulf as well.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 04N30W
to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate convection is also
observed from 01N to 04N between 20W and 33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for information on the
gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge extends
from high pressure over northeast Mexico to the central Gulf.
Fresh NE winds are noted over the central and eastern Gulf with 5
to 7 ft seas. Fresh N winds are evident in scatterometer data
over the southwest Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate N to
NE winds are noted over the west central Gulf near the ridge axis,
with 3 to 5 ft seas. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted.
For the forecast, winds over the north central and northeast Gulf
will diminish by late afternoon today as high pressure builds
over the western Gulf behind the front. Associated seas will
subside this evening. The high pressure will support generally
tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon, then
will shift east of the area early next week. This pattern will
support increased winds and seas over the northwest Gulf Mon and
Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over
Texas, before diminishing through mid week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front from western Cuba to northern Belize is
dissipating ahead of a cold front moving through the Yucatan
Channel. Radar from Grand Cayman indicates a few showers are
ongoing along these boundaries over the northwest Caribbean,
moving to the northeast. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted over
the northwest Caribbean, although winds are likely increasing
near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the northwest
Caribbean. Farther south, strong trade winds are active off the
coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla, with
8 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Regional radar shows
scattered showers moving quickly westward in the trade flow across
the ABC Islands, as well as a few showers in the Windward Islands
and Puerto Rico.
For the forecast, the cold front entering the Yucatan Channel
will weaken as it moves across the northwest Caribbean today. The
front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the
wake of the front north of the region will support the expansion
of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia
to cover most of the south- central and southwest Caribbean from
Sun through Wed night. These winds may pulse to gale force mainly
at night off Colombia starting Tue night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 55W: a cold front that recently moved off the northeast
Florida coast reaches from 31N76W to West Palm Beach, Florida.
Buoy observations show strong W to NW winds and building seas
following the front. The front will reinforcing a mostly
stationary front dissipating along 25N through the central Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds with 5
to 7 ft seas in open waters are evident ahead of the front in the
waters north of 27N and west of 70W. Weak ridging centered near
31N60W is maintaining gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered showers are evident on regional radar ahead of the front from the
Upper Florida Keys to the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers are
also likely ahead of the front from 27N to 29N between 70W and
75W.
For the forecast, the cold front moving off northeast
Florida will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, before
stalling from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by late Sun and dissipating
early Mon. Another cold front will move into the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sun, and also stall from 26N65W
to eastern Cuba by Mon night and early Tue, before dissipating
through mid week.
Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N45W to 26N55W. Ridging
dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N, supporting fresh
trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mainly NE swell south of 20N.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 17 02:41:00 2021
263
AXNT20 KNHC 162137
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong W-NW winds have arrived
behind a strong cold front and reinforcing trough in the SW N
Atlantic, with frequent gusts N of 28N. These winds will persist
into early Sun. Seas will be up to 13-15 ft along 31N during this
event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pW39o4qBZF5A2WKqJtRPcKX_9LTORFn80vmmxe3tCvBTrWrsS01glBaaQdtq2QqY1oHRyvCr$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N33W to near
the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 35W-51W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N between
24W-33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 mb high centered along the coast at the the Mexico/Texas
border continues to build in across the basin behind a now
departed cold front. This high has a ridge axis extending
southward to the western Bay of Campeche and to the east-
southeast to the Straits of Florida. Morning scatterometer data
showed fresh to strong W-NW flow in the eastern Gulf, with
moderate to fresh NW-N flow in the central Gulf, and gentle to
moderate flow in the western Gulf closest to the high center.
Lingering large seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters east of 92W,
with seas of 3-6 ft west of 92W.
Fresh to strong NW winds over the north-central and northeast
Gulf will diminish to 20 kt or less tonight. High pressure will
dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will set-up over the northwest Gulf
Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure
farther west over Texas. These winds will diminish some by the
middle of next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from the SW N Atlantic to across central Cuba
to along the north coast of Honduras and Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered showers are possible east of the boundary. Moderate to
fresh N-NE winds follow the front along with 5-7 ft, locally to 8
ft near the Yucatan Channel. Morning scatterometer data showed
mainly moderate to fresh trades east of the front, except gentle
winds within 120 nm southeast of the front. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft
east of the front, except locally to 8 ft northwest of the coast
of Colombia, and 2-4 ft within 120 nm southeast of the front.
The cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras will stall tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High
pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region
will bring increasing winds and building seas over the south-
central Caribbean, with gale conditions possible near the coast of
Colombia at night starting Sun night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
There is a gale warning in effect for the SW N Atlantic basin.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
West of 55W, a cold front extends from 32N71W to across the
central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted north of 22N and east of the front.
Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong southerly flow N
of 24N within 90-180 nm ahead of the front, with gentle to
moderate southerly flow elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except
4-7 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight before stalling from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba on Sun, dissipating on Mon. A reinforcing cold front
will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda
late Sun, and stall from 27N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon night into
Tue. The front will then reach from from 23N65W to eastern Cuba
on Wed while gradually dissipating. Another cold front is forecast
to reach the north waters by Wed night.
East of 55W, a cold front reaches from 32N40W to 26N53W. Scattered
showers are possible ahead of this front. A 1031 mb high centered
west of Portugal near 39N15W supports a ridge which reaches
southwest-west across the remainder of the waters. Moderate to
fresh trades and seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters S of 22N,
locally strong near 07N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 17 17:15:00 2021
731
AXNT20 KNHC 171000
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will support strong to near gale force winds over the south-
central Caribbean through mid week. Overnight land breezes will
allow these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the
coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vVQztu8d5L9d8kqRuvXvQPrRJY48MBzlHeYbpLh0Lto0O6AJCh7g13DSGSUGqxg2QiMIfxyC$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 02N40W and to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm on either sides of both boundaries.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from 1016 mb high pressure centered over
the western Gulf near 25N93W through the Straits of Florida. This
high pressure is following a cold front that moved southeast of
the basin yesterday. Light to gentle breezes cover the Gulf,
except for moderate southerly flow over the southwest and west
central Gulf. Seas are likely 5 to 7 ft in lingering NW swell over
the eastern Gulf, although these seas are subsiding quickly. Seas
are 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf, and are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.
Fairly dry conditions persist for now, and no significant showers
or thunderstorms are noted.
For the forecast, a weak front will stall along the north Gulf
coast tonight, then dissipate. Southerly flow will increase across
the western Gulf through late Mon, between the high pressure
anchored over the central Gulf and lower pressure over west Texas
and northwest Mexico. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft
are possible over the northwest Gulf Mon night. The southerly flow
will also bring increased moisture over the cooler shelf waters
of the northwest Gulf, and patchy sea fog is possible by mid week
there. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil marine conditions will persist
through Thu as the high pressure shifts east of the area.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central basin.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
eastern Cuba to central Honduras. A recent scatterometer shows
moderate to fresh N to NE winds are evident north of the front
over the northwest Caribbean. Seas in this plume are likely 4 to
6 ft. Grand Cayman radar is showing only a few showers along the
front moving to the southwest. High pressure north of the area
building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh
trade winds with 5 to 7 ft over the remainder of the basin, but
with strong trade winds and seas to 8 ft off Colombia. Other than
a few showers moving into the Windward Islands, little shower
activity is noted.
For the forecast, the stationary front reaching from eastern Cuba
to central Honduras will dissipate through Mon. The high pressure
building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring
increasing winds and building seas over the south- central
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of
Colombia mainly at night through mid week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 60W, a cold front extends from west of Bermuda near 32N62W
to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are observed within
90 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The main upper dynamics
supporting the front are lifting out to the north, allowing
sustained winds and gusts to diminish over the waters north of
25N. Seas are still very high, with the buoy 41048 near 32N69W
reporting 18 ft significant wave heights. This is due to shorter
period W to NW swell. Seas in excess of 8 ft cover most of the
area north of 26N between 65W and 75W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere in open waters with gentle to moderate winds.
For the forecast for the waters west of 60W, the cold front from
will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba late today, then will
dissipate Mon. Another cold front will move southeast off the NE
Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late
Mon, then stall and dissipate from 23N65W to eastern Cuba through
mid week. Another cold front will move southward into the waters
between Bermuda and NE Florida Wed night, and become stationary
along 25N into the central Bahamas by late Thu.
Farther east, a cold front extends from the northwest Azores to
near 30N41W, denting a ridge that prevails north of 20N. The ridge
is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds with 8
to 10 ft seas in mixed N and NE swell.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Jan 18 00:21:00 2021
821
AXNT20 KNHC 172107
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will support strong to near gale force winds over the south-
central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Overnight land
breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm
off the coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and
Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rGoZucluloOWaCsc3eQX9ZDbE4Z2GxqaqOt06wO-SFjQj0AKtLErijAE8aAdHNlrCx5woZED$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia at 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N14W to 04N26W to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N-08N between 18W-48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered near
the central Texas coast at 29N96W through the Straits of Florida.
Fairly dry conditions are present, however broken to overcast
clouds persist across the southeast half of the Gulf. No
significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. Earlier
scatterometer data indicated mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds across the basin. Buoy, ship and altimeter data
indicated seas of 3 ft or less across the northwest half of the
basin, and 3-5 ft across the southeast half of the basin in
lingering and decaying northwest-north swell generated by a cold
front passage a couple of days ago.
High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several
days. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up over the
northwest Gulf Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and
lower pressure farther west over northeast Mexico. These winds
will diminish some by the middle of the week. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected near and to the northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula through Wed night due to local effects.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.
A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
central Cuba to north-central Honduras. Upper level ridging and
deep layered dry air is allowing for drier conditions in the
eastern Caribbean. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to
fresh N-NE winds west the front and south of 19N, with gentle to
moderate N-NE winds west of the front and N of 19N. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail east of the front outside of the
south-central Caribbean as described in the Special Features
section above. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft across the basin, except to
8 ft in the south-central Caribbean.
The stationary front will dissipate through Mon. High pressure
building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring
increasing winds and building seas over the central and northwest
Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the lee
of eastern Cuba starting Mon night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from near 32N58W to 24N71W where it then
continues as a stationary front across the southeast Bahamas to
central Cuba. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of
the front, with isolated thunderstorms possible south of 26N
within 90-120 nm south-southeast of the front. The main upper
level dynamics supporting the front are lifting out to the north,
allowing sustained winds and gusts to continue to diminish over
the waters, except north of 29N within 60-90 nm ahead of the
front where earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong
SW winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of 55W.
Even though winds associated with the front have mainly
diminished, lingering and large NW swell of 7-11 ft persists north
of 26N and west of the front to around 75W, and north of 29N and
east of the front to 60W. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of
the waters outside of the Bahamas, with seas mainly 3 ft or less
inside the Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will completely stall
tonight while a reinforcing by cold front moves into the area
tonight into Mon. The merging front will extend from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba Mon night, then reach from 24N65W to eastern Cuba on
Tue while gradually weakening through the middle of the week.
Another cold front will move southward into the waters between
Bermuda and northeast Florida Wed night, and dissipate along 27N
by late Thu. Another cold front is forecast to reach the northern
waters on Fri.
Farther east, a cold front extends from the Azores to near
30N38W, denting a ridge that prevails across the waters north of
20N. The ridge is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh
trade winds, with locally strong winds and accompanying 6-9 ft
seas south of 22N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
north of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft from 22N to 26N, with 7-15 ft
seas north of 26N, the highest along 32N, in large NW swell
generated by the parent low of the cold front located well north
of the area.
$$
Lewitsky
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Jan 18 21:18:00 2021
961
AXNT20 KNHC 181808
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Overnight land breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale
force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly between
Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uJmnWBc_U9TBxwFYCf5rsKB_CDqyvHlqgXbcA_pQDV96ZcEEG81xxrGMeX562FDphvgRU2oS$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to
18N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 02N33W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 05N between 16W and 24W and between 28W and 35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure over the
Northern Gulf near 29N90W extending through the Straits of
Florida. Dry conditions prevail over the northwestern portion
of the Gulf. To the east, a surface trough extends from Marco
Island to 23N85W. Scattered showers are noted near the boundary.
Scatterometer data indicated light to gentle anticyclonic winds
across most of the basin, while moderate winds are noted near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoy, ship and altimeter data also
indicated 2 to 4 ft.
High pressure over the northwest Gulf will shift eastward across
the northern Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow will set up over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue between the
high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast
Mexico. These winds will diminish some by Wed. A trough will
form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night
through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
the northwest Caribbean. Gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas
are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
ongoing elsewhere across the southeast and south-central
Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Scattered showers are present
from 14N to 19N between 79W-84W and in the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, high pressure that will begin to build over
the western Atlantic today will bring increasing winds and
building seas over the southeast and south-central Caribbean,
with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia
mainly at night through Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba tonight through Wed
night, diminishing to mainly fresh speeds Thu and to gentle to
moderate speeds Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 50W: A weakening cold front extends from near 31N51W to
27N60W where it then continues as a stationary front to 28N68W.
Scattered showers are ongoing in broad swath from South Florida
across the northern Bahamas to 31N76W. These showers are ahead
of the cold front extending from a 1006 mb low near 37N67W to
29N72W to 26N80W. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident
ahead of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and west of
63W with 5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to strong
westerly flow is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N between
73W to 81W.
A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 30N58W, supporting
light to gentle breezes north of 25N between 27W and 54W. Seas
are quite large in this area however, reaching 7 to 11 ft in
lingering NW swell. Moderate trade winds persist south of 27N
with 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near 31N72W to
the NW Bahamas and to Miami this afternoon, then become
stationary from near 26N65W to 22N71W and dissipating to eastern
Cuba by early Tue. The boundary will gradually dissipate through
early Thu. Another cold front will move southward into waters
between northeastern Florida and Bermuda Wed night. The main
portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area
Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along
27N by late Thu. This will be followed by yet another front
moving southward into the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida
Fri.
Farther east, the subtropical ridge supports gentle to moderate
winds over the waters north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trades
farther south. A large area of NW to N swell with significant
wave heights reaching 8 to 13 ft are active north of 22N between
30W and 50W. Farther south, 6 to 8 ft seas prevail in a mix of N
swell and shorter period easterly wind waves.
$$
MTorres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jan 19 03:03:00 2021
439
AXNT20 KNHC 182330
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse
to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly
between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!puTx4RyhmntBgxbsFCEnJrONOnvFrYYp-EpK6cnGfQznMYihn-UV6qD01M5uUIuKZ20-y6Hg$
for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends across equatorial Africa to the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W to
02N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 11W
and 42W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf near 26.5N88W,
and generally extends a broad ridge to the SE and to the NW. Dry
and stable conditions prevail over most of the Gulf. Scattered
showers are along and just east of a coastal trough along the
Mexican coast from near Cabo Rojo to Veracruz. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, while
moderate to fresh southeast to south winds have developed this
afternoon across west portions north of 21N and west of 94W, where
seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere buoy, ship and altimeter data also
indicate seas of 2 to 3 ft.
High pressure over the Gulf will shift eastward across the
northeastern Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow will set up over the entire NW Gulf tonight into Tue between
the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast
Mexico. These winds will diminish some by Wed. A trough will form
off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed
night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean, to the north of an old frontal trough
extending from the western Cayman Islands to the eastern Gulf of
Honduras. Strong winds to 30 kt and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted off
of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds are ongoing elsewhere
across the southeast and south-central Caribbean, with 5 to 8 ft
seas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present
from 15N to 17.5N between 81W-86W and in the Yucatan Channel.
High pressure will begin to shift over the far western Atlantic
today and increase the pressure gradient across the southeast and
central Caribbean. This will produce increasing winds and
building seas over the southeast and south-central Caribbean,
with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly
at night through Thu morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba tonight through Wed
night, diminishing to fresh winds Thu and to gentle to moderate
on Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 45W: A weakening cold front extends from near 31N50W to
29N54W where it then continues as a stationary front to 27.5N62W.
A cold front extends from a deepening 1001 mb low near 39N64W
through 31N67W to 23N77W. Scattered showers are ongoing in broad
swath from the Straits of Florida across the northern Bahamas to
beyond 31N60W. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident ahead
of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and west of 63W with
5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to strong westerly flow
is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N between 73W to 81W.
A 1027 mb high pressure is centered over the far eastern Atlantic
near 33N17W, extending W-SW to the southern end of the stationary
front. The pressure gradient to the south is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic south of 25N
where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell.
The cold front will become stationary from near 26N65W to 22N71W
and dissipating to eastern Cuba by early Tue. The boundary will
gradually dissipate through early Thu. Another cold front will
move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and
Bermuda Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the
northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment
to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This will be followed by yet
another front moving southward into the waters between Bermuda and
NE Florida Fri.
$$
Stripling
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jan 21 01:10:00 2021
458
AXNT20 KNHC 201804
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area will
continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the latter part of the week.
Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse
to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia this
morning,
and again, this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tKks55QVwmkEJw2nZPFW3DWjt5rFD3mEEnVBLKr0JNH6R_rRi9KuLXEKEPDHEqauwf4e0boc$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to
01N49W. Scattered showers are noted from 01N to 06N between 16W
and 28W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends 1031 mb high pressure over Arkansas
across the Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting moderate to
locally fresh E winds south of 25N, with 4 to 6 ft seas, and
gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 25N with 1 to 3 ft
seas. Relatively warm, moist SE flow over cooler shelf waters
along the north Texas coast are supporting the potential for sea
fog this morning. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of
Campeche near 18N93W to 22N96W. Elsewhere, no significant
weather is observed.
For the forecast, the ridge will extend across the northern Gulf
Through Fri. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and
become stationary into Sat night. The western part of the front
will begin to lift north as a warm front late Sat night through
Sun, while the rest of the front dissipates as Atlantic high
pressure builds westward across the area through Sun night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tight gradient due to high pressure north of the area is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern and central
and winds to gale force continue north of Colombia through mid
morning. Fresh trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean.
Seas are 8 to 13 ft over the southwest Caribbean due in part to
NE to E swell. Seas are reaching 8 ft off Belize and Quintana
Roo due to the long fetch of fresh NE winds from the Cuban
coast. 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Regional radar
suggests scattered showers persist in the trade wind flow across
the eastern Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting
Fresh to strong winds and building seas over the southeast and
south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off
the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds
are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight.
Winds and seas diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure
weakens, although strong winds will persist off Colombia that
could reach near gale force Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 60W: A cold front reaches from 30N48W to 25N60W, then is
stationary to the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted
along the front and scattered moderate north of 28N. Farther
west, a surface ridge extending west to east along roughly 28N
is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in
open waters south of 25N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to
6 ft seas north of 25N, except 2 to 5 ft north of the northern
Bahamas and off the northeast Florida coast. No significant
shower activity is evident.
For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near 24N65W
to the Turks and Caicos will dissipate tonight. A new cold front
will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and
Bermuda. The main portion of this front will lift to the
northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment
to dissipate along 27N by Thu evening. This front will be
followed by yet another cold front that will move southward
across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, reach
from near 31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach, Florida Sat
night, then begin to weaken as it reaches the far southern
waters late Sun. High pressure will build over the area in the
wake of this front.
Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 27N30W is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 25N
where seas are 7 to 9 ft in a mix of N swell and shorter period
wind waves. NW swell is reaching as far south as 30N between 45W
and 65W, but 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 25N. A
sharp upper trough reaches from the Canary Islands to near
09N41W. Upper divergence southeast of the upper trough is
supporting moderate showers within 480 nm to the southeast of
the upper trough.
$$
MTorres
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 22 00:01:00 2021
009
AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds
over the south-central Caribbean through the next couple of
days. Local overnight land breeze influences will allow these
winds to pulse to gale force again tonight along the coast of
Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and
Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri night, but will
be strong enough to support additional gales in this area late
Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!u-7sRQLFTQxKfr5pQOltRzetHioIk5VF95VQZnh-TilEeE_oDELNBBMaDd7mEF8ETe04Nlcd$
for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W,
continuing to 08N17W, and then to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N20W to 03N36W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 06N between
22W and 30W and off the coast of French Guiana from 05N to 08N
between 47W and 54W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 15W and 20W.
Scattered showers are found along the remainder of the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
from the coast of Texas near 29N96W to the coast of Mexico
25N98W. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed over
the northeast Gulf near 27N86W. Moderate southwesterly flow is
evident over the northwestern Gulf according to the latest
surface observations. Patchy dense fog remains along the Texas
coast as a result of moist onshore flow. Farther south, the
scatterometer pass indicates moderate E winds over the Bay of
Campeche, between the 1023 mb high pressure and a small trough
near Veracruz. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf.
Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas,
except 3 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Aside from the
patchy dense fog along the Texas coast, no significant weather
is observed.
Looking ahead, the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will
shift southeast today to the Bahamas. The associated surface
ridge will move into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a
cold front moving into the northern Gulf later on Fri. The front
will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, and then
dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of
front over the Carolinas will support increasing SE winds and
building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun. Strong SE
winds are possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low
pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east
and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas
through Mon night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia.
Recent scatterometer data shows generally fresh NE winds across
the western Caribbean, with an area of strong NE to ENE winds
from the coast of Colombia to 15N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the
Caribbean, except for 7 to 11 ft in the area under a Gale
Warning. Moderate trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean.
No significant precipitation is observed at this time.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong winds over the south central
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight
hours off Colombia through the next several nights.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A southward moving cold front is located from 32N56W to 29N75W.
Fresh to strong winds are present behind the cold front between
60W and 67W. Seas in excess 8 ft are noted north of 28N between
35W and 67W. A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 22N71W
near the southeast Bahamas. Fresh N winds were recorded by a
recent scatterometer pass within 90nm north of the stationary
front west of 60W. Scattered moderate convection is present
along this frontal boundary between 48W and 59W. In the eastern
Atlantic, ridging anchored to a 1027 mb high pressure at 29N29W
is inducing fresh NE winds across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Closer to the high pressure center, gentle to moderate winds are
evident. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a sharp upper
trough from the Canary Islands to the coast of northeast Brazil
is supporting scattered showers across the eastern Atlantic east
of 32W.
For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front that extends
to 29N75W will move east of 65W tonight. Another front will move
into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri
evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening, then along 23N east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, and finally
stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by
Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake
of this front.
$$
Hagen
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-
From
Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 22 00:01:00 2021
009
AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds
over the south-central Caribbean through the next couple of
days. Local overnight land breeze influences will allow these
winds to pulse to gale force again tonight along the coast of
Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and
Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri night, but will
be strong enough to support additional gales in this area late
Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!u-7sRQLFTQxKfr5pQOltRzetHioIk5VF95VQZnh-TilEeE_oDELNBBMaDd7mEF8ETe04Nlcd$
for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W,
continuing to 08N17W, and then to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N20W to 03N36W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 06N between
22W and 30W and off the coast of French Guiana from 05N to 08N
between 47W and 54W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 15W and 20W.
Scattered showers are found along the remainder of the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
from the coast of Texas near 29N96W to the coast of Mexico
25N98W. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed over
the northeast Gulf near 27N86W. Moderate southwesterly flow is
evident over the northwestern Gulf according to the latest
surface observations. Patchy dense fog remains along the Texas
coast as a result of moist onshore flow. Farther south, the
scatterometer pass indicates moderate E winds over the Bay of
Campeche, between the 1023 mb high pressure and a small trough
near Veracruz. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf.
Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas,
except 3 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Aside from the
patchy dense fog along the Texas coast, no significant weather
is observed.
Looking ahead, the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will
shift southeast today to the Bahamas. The associated surface
ridge will move into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a
cold front moving into the northern Gulf later on Fri. The front
will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, and then
dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of
front over the Carolinas will support increasing SE winds and
building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun. Strong SE
winds are possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low
pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east
and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas
through Mon night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia.
Recent scatterometer data shows generally fresh NE winds across
the western Caribbean, with an area of strong NE to ENE winds
from the coast of Colombia to 15N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the
Caribbean, except for 7 to 11 ft in the area under a Gale
Warning. Moderate trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean.
No significant precipitation is observed at this time.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong winds over the south central
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight
hours off Colombia through the next several nights.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A southward moving cold front is located from 32N56W to 29N75W.
Fresh to strong winds are present behind the cold front between
60W and 67W. Seas in excess 8 ft are noted north of 28N between
35W and 67W. A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 22N71W
near the southeast Bahamas. Fresh N winds were recorded by a
recent scatterometer pass within 90nm north of the stationary
front west of 60W. Scattered moderate convection is present
along this frontal boundary between 48W and 59W. In the eastern
Atlantic, ridging anchored to a 1027 mb high pressure at 29N29W
is inducing fresh NE winds across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Closer to the high pressure center, gentle to moderate winds are
evident. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a sharp upper
trough from the Canary Islands to the coast of northeast Brazil
is supporting scattered showers across the eastern Atlantic east
of 32W.
For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front that extends
to 29N75W will move east of 65W tonight. Another front will move
into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri
evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening, then along 23N east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, and finally
stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by
Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake
of this front.
$$
Hagen
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 23 00:35:00 2021
618
AXNT20 KNHC 221738
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200|UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area and
low pressure over northern Colombia will combine for a tight
pressure gradient offshore of northwest Colombia where winds will
pulse to gale force during the overnight into the early morning
hours for the next several days. Seas will build to 6-10 ft
during the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rSRmK7ZXJT8QPwMMVW9iajf5k9MuZ3uvHpxRYSQZ2k5ecm1StQWXa2JyUHlbVgelJP1qZGYG$
for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 03N24W. The ITCZ then extends from 03N24W to 04N41W to the
coast of northern Brazil near 03N51W. An area of scattered
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from
00N to 05N between 15W and 23W. Scattered showers to isolated
moderate convection persist along the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Onshore flow along the Texas coast is producing patchy
dense fog that should lift by this afternoon. A surface
trough extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from
SW Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico, where an interesting mesoscale
low is observed on satellite imagery. The remainder of the Gulf
is under the influence of a receding ridge of high pressure that
is centered northeast of the Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass
shows gentle SW winds in the eastern Gulf, with gentle to
moderate S winds in the western Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are found
over the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico. Except for the patchy
fog in the western Gulf, no significant weather is observed
at this time.
A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf later today,
becoming stationary tonight, and dissipating by Sat night.
High pressure building north of the front over the SE United
States will support a gradual increase of SE winds and building
seas across W Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds possible
in NW Gulf by Sun night. Winds and seas diminish across the
Gulf Mon as the high shifts farther east with a weak cold
front moving into NW Gulf Mon afternoon. The front should
stall over NW and W Gulf on Tue.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information
on a Gale Warning in the south central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, fresh to strong trades are
noted in the south central Caribbean, with mainly moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft across
the basin outside of the stronger winds near the coast of
Colombia. Mainly fair conditions are noted on satellite
imagery with isolated trade wind showers possible.
The Bermuda High displaced to near the Bahamas will
continue to support fresh to strong winds over the
south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force
during the overnight hours off the coast of Colombia through
the next several nights. Mainly moderate to fresh trades
will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong near
the Gulf of Honduras on Monday and Tuesday. No significant
cold fronts are expected to reach these waters for at least
the next several days. N swell will propagate into the
Tropical N Atlantic waters on Monday and Tuesday.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 60W, a 1019 mb high pressure near 25N72W extends
a ridge from the Gulf of Mexico, across the Straits of
Florida and the Bahamas. A cold front extends from
31N70W to the FL/GA border. Light to gentle winds are
noted underneath the ridge from 20N to 27N, with moderate
to locally fresh WNW winds observed north of 27N in
association with the cold front. Strong winds are noted
north of 30N between 65W and 71W. NW swell of 7-11 ft
prevails north of 23N and east of 68W, with 3-6 ft seas
in mainly E to NE swell elsewhere outside of the Bahamas.
Seas are 2-4 ft west of the Bahamas.
East of 60W, a cold front enters our area near 31N48W,
continuing SW to 27N53W where it becomes stationary to
25N61W. An area of scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted north of 25N between 40W and 48W.
Over the eastern Atlantic, 1029 mb high pressure is
centered near 32N24W. Moderate to fresh NE flow was
observed by scatterometer over most of the basin. NW swell
of 8-14 ft covers the majority of the area north of 24N/25N
with 6-9 ft seas south of 24N/25N. Scattered moderate
convection, enhanced by an upper-level trough, is observed
from the monsoon trough north to 23N between 08W and 23W.
For the forecast, a cold front will move into the waters
between Bermuda and NE Florida today, reaching along 28N
by Sat afternoon, then merging with a reinforcing front
along 24N east of the Bahamas by Sun afternoon, and finally
stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic
by Mon afternoon. A strong Bermuda High will build over
the area in the wake of this front. A new cold front may
emerge off of the SE United States coast and move across
the basin beginning on Tue night.
$$
Mahoney/Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 23 17:13:00 2021
638
AXNT20 KNHC 230930
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: 1018 mb high pressure north of Puerto
Rico and low pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a
tight pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean. Winds are
pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early morning hours
which will continue through the next several days. Seas will build
to 11-12 ft around sunrise each day. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!o-bSCYg01WccsuJ208_dVdnMy45W5ok9Z9yINBhR3YCgtY5ZSzBdxMYRwexmZNFTHDnEmHuC$
for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa at the Cote
d'Ivoire and Liberia border near 04N08W to 04N27W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N27W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N-07N between 13W-17W, from
02N-04N between 17W-20W, from 00N-05N between 27W-33W, and from
04N-05N between 42W-49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01N-03N between 47W-51W near the coast of northern Brazil.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Patchy to areas of dense fog is noted across portions of the Gulf
coastal waters early this morning, with the potential for
visibilities to be reduced to 1 nm or less. This fog should
diminish by late morning. Otherwise, fair conditions are noted
across the basin.
A surface ridge extends from high pressure east of the southern
Bahamas across the upper Florida Keys and Florida Bay to the
north-central Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed in the western
Gulf from 29N93W to 26N96W to 21N97W. A stationary front extends
from northern Florida to across the northern coastal waters.
Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds under the ridging and gentle to moderate NE
winds behind the front, with N-NE moderate winds west of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less across the basin
per recent buoy observations and altimeter data.
The stationary front will retreat northward as a warm front
through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will rebuild
over the southeast U.S.A. with increasing southerly return flow
and building seas Sun into early next week. The ridge will weaken
late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western Gulf,
stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced and
progress eastward across the basin through the remainder of the
week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean northwest of
the coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail, except
moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft or less
in the northwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Isolated
tradewind showers are possible with no significant convection
noted across the basin, however deep convection is occurring over
portions of central to northwest Colombia and far eastern Panama.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next
several days outside of the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to
fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras on Mon through Wed. N
swell will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters from
Mon night through Thu. A cold front may approach the Yucatan
Channel from the northwest Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 55W, 1018 mb high pressure is noted east of the southern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos near 23N66W with a ridge axis
extending west-northwest toward the upper Florida Keys. A cold
front extends from 32N58W to 28N70W to near Jacksonville, Florida.
Scattered showers are possible near the front with fair conditions
elsewhere. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of 27N
and east of the front, with mainly gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. A set of large northerly swell with seas of 7-11 ft
associated with the frontal system extend across the waters north
of 27N and east of 70W, with 3-6 ft seas noted elsewhere outside
of the Bahamas, except 4-7 ft east of 70W.
The cold front will reach along 26N by this evening, while a
reinforcing cold front merges with it along 25N by Sun morning.
The merged front will stall along 20N off the coast of the
Dominican Republic by Mon afternoon, and then dissipate on Tue.
A new cold front will move across the northern waters Tue night
shifting south while weakening through early Thu. Another cold
front may move off the southeast U.S.A coast by Thu afternoon
while parent low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the area
through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
are possible with this system, with storm force to near hurricane
force winds possible north of 32N.
East of 55W, a cold front extends from 1010 mb low pressure north
of the area near 37N39W through 32N40W to 26N44W to 20N59W.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible near the front, with
scattered moderate convection noted north of 27N between the front
and 37W. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of 27N
within 120-180 nm ahead of the front, while northerly swell of
7-11 ft covers the waters north of 20N, except 11-14 ft north of
27N between 37W-50W. A 1027 mb high pressure area is centered
northwest of the Canary Islands near 32N20W with a ridge axis
reaching from the high west-southwest through 27N35W to 23N55W.
Moderate to fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N, with
gentle to moderate trades found near the ridge. Seas of 6-9 ft in
mainly fresh trade wind swell dominate the open waters of the
tropical Atlantic.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 24 02:03:00 2021
360
AXNT20 KNHC 232210 AAA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2210 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021
Updated Gulf of Mexico section
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of a 1019 mb high center
over the Atlantic near 23N69W north of Puerto Rico and low
pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a tight pressure
gradient in the south-central Caribbean. This will again lead to
northeast to east winds to pulse to gale force tonight and into
early on Sun along and near the coast of Colombia. This favorable
synoptic pattern setup will continue to promote this pulsing of
winds to gale force well into next week. Wave heights generated by
these winds are forecast to be in the range of 8-12 ft, mainly
around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rQ3xcWfhenzGbkp5uKcrfLSfYGCgUxIBTzRYigqEndJGLCxG9eqT3fVyF1EW-QjUYfW71TA_$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A rather short monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of
Africa at the Cote d'Ivoire and Liberia border near 04N08W to
05N15W, where morning ASCAT data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ to 03N29W to 03N38W and to near 03N47W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 26W-31W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 16W-19W and
between 31W-35W. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of the
monsoon trough between 13W-19W and between 31W-35W. Other
scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm either side of a
line from 04N45W to near the coast of northern Brazil at 04N51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...Updated
As of 15Z, a stationary front extends from north-central Florida
to 29N90W and to inland Texas near Corpus Christi. A far western
Gulf trough extends from just south of the stationary front near
28N94W to 26N96W and to 23N97W. As of 15Z, a 1020 mb high is
centered over the far southeastern Gulf at 25N82W. High pressure
is present across the rest of the area, with stronger high
pressure analyzed over far NE Gulf. Latest buoy data indicates
light to gentle anticyclonic wind speeds south of the
aforementioned stationary front due to the 1020 mb high center.
The latest buoy data along with overnight ASCAT confirmed that
gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are north of the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Satellite imagery shows
overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible patches of
mainly light rain and scattered light showers to be confined
along and within 120 nm north of the frontal boundary. Patches
of stratus-type clouds and fog are advecting northward over the
far western Gulf from 21N-25N and between 93W-97W.
The stationary front will begin to lift northward as a warm
front from this evening through Sun. Patchy to widespread areas
of dense fog, with visibilities reduced to 1 nm or less are
likely to develop again during the overnight hours and into Sun
morning over the Gulf coastal plains as well as over and along
the Florida west coast north of about Naples. High pressure will
build over the southeastern United States, with increasing
southerly return flow and building seas Sun through Mon. The
high pressure will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves
into the western Gulf and becomes stationary by early Tue. The
front will then get reinforced and progress eastward across the
basin through Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean northwest of
the coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail, except
moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft
or less in the northwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Satellite imagery reveals patches of low-level clouds moving
westward in the trade wind flow. Isolated showers are possible
with some of these clouds. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over southern Panama, but appear to be weakening
during the past few hours. Otherwise, no significant convection
is noted over the Caribbean waters, over the islands and nearby
land areas.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next
several days outside of the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to
fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras on Mon through Wed.
A north well will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic
waters from Mon night through Thu. A cold front is likely to
enter the Yucatan Channel from the northwest Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 55W, a 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed east of
the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos near 23N69W, with a
ridge axis extending west-northwestward to a 1020 mb high center
that is over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico at 25N82W. A cold
front extends along a position from near 32N58W to 28N70W and to
inland Florida near Daytona Beach. Satellite imagery shows broken
to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with embedded patches of
rain and possible scattered showers along and north of the front
to near 31N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are occurring north
of 27N and east of the front, with mainly gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. A set of large northerly swell with seas of 8-11 ft
associated with the frontal system extend across the waters north
of 27N and east of 70W, with 3-6 ft seas noted elsewhere outside
of the Bahamas, except 4-7 ft east of 70W.
The cold front will reach along 26N by this evening, while a
reinforcing cold front merges with it along 25N by Sun morning.
The merged front will stall along 21N north of the coast of the
Dominican Republic by Mon afternoon and dissipate on Tue. A new
cold front will move across the northern waters Tue night shifting
south while weakening through early Thu. Another stronger cold
front may move off the southeast United States coast by Thu
afternoon while parent low pressure rapidly intensifies north of
the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very
large seas are possible with this system, with storm force to near
hurricane force winds possible north of 32N.
East of 55W, a cold front extends from a 1009 mb low north of the
area near 38N38W through 32N38W and to 28N40W, where it becomes a
weakening stationary front to 27N45W and to near 25N50W. An
upper-level disturbance diving southeastward is behind the front
near 30N47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of this
disturbance. Scattered showers are possible near and along the
front north of 28N, while isolated showers are possible along and
near the stationary front. Fresh to strong south winds are within
150 nm east of the front north of about 28N, while northerly
swell of 7-11 ft covers the waters north of 20N, except 11-14 ft
north of 27N between 37W-50W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is
centered north of the Canary Islands near 32N18W with a ridge
axis reaching from the high west-southwestward through 26N37W
and to near 22N53W. Moderate to fresh trades cover the waters
south of 20N, with gentle to moderate trades found near the
ridge. Seas of 6-9 ft in mainly fresh trade wind swell dominate
the open waters of the tropical Atlantic.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 24 16:57:00 2021
878
AXNT20 KNHC 241018
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure due north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights
generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13
ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oY1er-CuBXn8Wxa0FESUZ0Owc6TpSNYkySOD5SLT1R6-npaMrMND28eDlEG-hmL4pOdb_5ep$
for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to
04N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
between 07W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 20W-43W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal waters.
This front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front today.
Dense fog, reducing visibility to less than one mile, is expected
N of the boundary, particularly from Lake Charles, Louisiana to
Brownsville, Texas. Moderate easterly winds are noted N of the
front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough is near the W
coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing mainly moderate winds.
Light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf
waters. High clouds are moving from central Mexico into the Gulf
region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft.
Building high pressure over the SE U.S. will bring increasing
southerly return flow and building seas over the western Gulf
today and Mon. The ridge will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front
moves into the western Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front
will then get reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the
basin through Thu night. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
in the wake of the front on Wed, with gale conditions possible in
the Veracruz area Wed night into Thu. Seas are forecast to build
up to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
the Special Features section above for details.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing
to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night with
seas building to 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
expected in the Windward passage tonight, and south of Dominican
Republic tonight through Mon night. Shallow moisture embedded in
the trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated
to scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with
possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting
most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua.
Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with
additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into
Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North
Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu night.
A cold front currently located along 26N W of 60W with continue to
move southward, approaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola by Mon night. This front could bring an increase
in the likelihood of rain over these islands on Tue. Another cold
front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night followed
by fresh to strong northerly winds.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends across the central and Western Atlantic from
31N48W to 26N65W to near West Palm Beach, FL. Doppler radar shows
a few showers associated with the front between the NW Bahamas
and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move
southward reaching 25N by Sun morning, 22N-23N by Sun night, and
21N by Mon morning. It will bring a slight chance of showers to
South Florida tonight. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N47W to
23N70W. Scattered showers are ahead of the trough N of 26N.
A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of
27N and east of 70W today and Mon, bringing strong to near gale
force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between
55W-65W. large northerly swell will follow the front, building
seas to 15-18 ft across the central Atlantic near 31N by tonight.
Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central
Florida Mon into Tue.
A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
are likely with this system.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb located just SE
of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the
southern periphery of the ridge.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 16 23:43:00 2021
315
AXNT20 KNHC 161745
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over
northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing
for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal
gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after
sunrise. Seas will build to around 10-13 ft with strongest winds.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!twJ_GGCuT4qpyQIeCdE0gpxUNONC6nQ25_8drMDkliqXZFOzs94CKLbTpC3TKpf6WJ9aInUi$
for further
Details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 02N31W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N-08N between 05W-
26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from
05S-05N between 27W-46W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front continues to press southward across the southeast
Gulf, stretching from southwest Florida near 26N82W to the
northeast Yucatan near 21N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted within 60 nm of the front. High pressure continues to
build across the rest of the Gulf behind the cold front. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted across the basin with seas 3-6 ft. Seas
are up to 8-9 ft near the front in the eastern Gulf.
Winds will diminish this afternoon behind the cold front as it
reaches the far southeastern Gulf and stalls. The front will lift
back north as a warm from late tonight through Wed night. Fresh to
strong southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf tonight
as a low pressure system takes shape along the central Texas
coast. This low pressure system will track east- northeastward
across the NW Gulf on Wed dragging a strong cold front across the
western Gulf. This front is expected to reach from near
Apalachicola, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu
afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf Fri afternoon. Gale
conditions will be possible behind this front off Veracruz on Fri,
while fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected over
the eastern Gulf and over the southern half of the central Gulf.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will be confined to the eastern
Gulf south of 27N Fri through Sat night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast
of Colombia.
Scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Yucatan Passage
ahead of the cold front approaching the region. Showers are also
moving across the Gulf of Honduras. Farther south, showers are
noted off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, quick
moving showers are moving throughout the central and eastern
Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trade
winds in the eastern and central Caribbean with gentle winds in
the western Caribbean. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 10 ft
north of Colombia.
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through
Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale force at night
through mid week. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of
Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected
to move across western Caribbean Fri through Sat, then becomes
stationary on Sat night. Strong N winds will follow the front.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical N
Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside through Sat
night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front stretches off the Florida coast from 31N79W to the
central Florida coast near 28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is
noted north of the Bahamas to the south Florida coast from
31N76W to 25N80W. Fresh westerly winds are noted behind the
front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Seas
range 6-9 ft. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from a
1018 mb low near 32N39W to 27N41W. Moderate winds are noted near
this feature. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from
28N35W to 22N37W. Light to gentle winds are noted throughout the
region with seas 6-10 ft. A trough is located west of the Canary
Islands from 30N19W to 23N22W.
The cold front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W
to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front
Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
over the western waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move east of
Florida early on Fri, extend from near 31N71W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba early Fri evening, and from 28N65W
to near the Windward Passage Sat. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will follow this front. Fresh to strong east winds will
expand westward across the southern waters east of 76W from Wed
afternoon through Thu night.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 18 00:14:00 2021
927
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure system of 1008 mb has
developed over the NW Gulf of Mexico. The attendant cold front
extends from the low center to the coast of Mexico just N of
Tampico, Mexico. A stationary front stretches from South Florida
to the low pressure. The stationary front will lift north as a
warm front through tonight. At the same time, the new cold front
will move eastward reaching from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz,
Mexico tonight. Then, the front will stall there on Thu. Reinforcing
cold air will allow the front to move again across the Gulf waters
late Thu and Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front, reaching gale force over the SW Gulf
Thu night and Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 12-14 ft with
the strongest winds.
Caribbean Gale Warning: Near gale force winds are noted within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia this morning based on recent satellite-derived wind data. The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low
will support strong to minimal gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia tonight. These conditions are possible again Sun night.
Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!qhwreczbY75RO4_llkXdndSvq1Tr_-ZmKBVn6ZSawa5ltKCUiV0japh-q-MgAhp5Aws1BX8t$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from
04N25W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-07N between 06W-17W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of the ITCZ W of 39W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning has been issued for the SW Gulf of Mexico near the
Veracruz area. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details. Buoys across the northern Gulf are reporting fresh to
strong E to SE winds with areas of fog. A recent altimeter pass
indicates seas to 9 ft near the low pressure center located over
the NW Gulf.
Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, dominates much of the
Gulf region, particularly N of 25N and W of 94W where the frontal boundaries/low pressure are. A few showers are also noted over
the SE Gulf. Thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra
Madre Mountains in Mexico.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of near gale
force winds within about 90 nm of the cost of Colombia. with
fresh to strong trade winds over the remainder of the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean.
Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to
move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. Showers carried by fresh NE winds are now affecting
Puerto Rico and regional waters, and parts of Dominican Republic.
High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Fri night. Gale force winds are possible tonight and Sun
night off Colombia. A Gale warning in now in effect. Please, see
the Special Features section for more details.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras
will increase to strong to near gale force tonight through Thu
morning as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front
will move across the western Caribbean Fri evening into Sat,
reaching front central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then
stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow the front. Long period north swell combined with NE wind-
waves will produce sea heights of 7-10 ft over tropical N Atlantic
waters through Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extend from 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee,
Florida. Scattered showers are near the frontal boundary, forecast
to lift northward as a warm front through tonight. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop east of Florida on Thu as another
cold front moves across the NE Gulf of Mexico. The front will
enter the Atlantic Ocean just E of NE Florida by early Fri
morning, and extend from 31N74W to South Florida by Fri evening
bringing some shower activity, and cooler temperatures. Then, the
front will reach from 31N68W to central Cuba by Sat morning, and
from 31N60W to central Cuba by Sat night. On Sat, expected fresh
to strong N to NE winds behind the front as a 1035 mb high pressure
settles over the Carolinas. The front is forecast to weaken over
the SW N Atlantic on Sun.
Currently, mainly fresh NE-E winds are observed over the NE Caribbean
and the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles, particularly from
12N-22N between 48W-67W. These winds were sampled by recent scatterometer
data.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic forecast waters, high pressure of 1028
mb located near 31N58W will shift eastward over the next several days
as the aforementioned cold front moves E of Florida.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 18 23:47:00 2021
460
AXNT20 KNHC 181829
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure system
located Near the Georgia/Alabama border north of Tallahassee,
Florida. A Cold front extends southwest to 18N94W in the Bay of
Campeche. The altimeter data and buoy observations are showing
mainly fresh northerly winds west of the front, with fresh to
strong north winds in the waters near Galveston Texas. Seas are in
the 5-8 ft range on either side of the frontal boundary. The cold
front will continue to move eastward today. Strong high pressure
associated with reinforcing cold air will tighten the pressure
gradient west of the front later today. Strong northerly winds
will reach gale force in the Veracruz region of the SW Gulf
tonight and Fri. Seas will build to 10-16 ft near the highest
winds.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tuhZnoNe-eljPAMkO3C1ooja9IqjqypQtbAupR3UDVZ2cg_s9dxDPeQFXDIW3O2Bh1YTHgvf$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 06N11W to
03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of the boundary from 01S-04N
between 07W-25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the
Veracruz region. Please see the Special Features section for
more details.
Widespread stratocumulus clouds blanket the waters west of the
front, and a line of moderate to strong convection has developed
north of 27N ahead of the front in the north-central Gulf. This
line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist through
today as the front moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will
induce gale force northerly winds near Tampico, and in the
Veracruz region tonight into Fri. Gales are also expected in the
Bay of Campeche on Fri, with seas building to 14-16 ft. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche tonight, from Ft. Myers, Florida to NE Yucatan
peninsula on Fri, exiting the basin by Fri evening. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are expected across the Gulf Sun and Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted over the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern
Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded within the low level wind
flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated
passing trade wind showers.
High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today as a cold front
approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach the NW
Caribbean by Fri evening, and extend from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras on Sat, then stall and weaken Sat night. Fresh
to strong north winds will follow the front.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Altimeter data shows a large area of fresh to locally strong
easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic waters, and buoy
observations indicate winds are increasing north of the Bahamas
and veering to the south. Broad anticyclonic wind flow
associated with a 1029 mb high centered near 30N58W prevails
across the west-central Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted
south of 25N between 60W and 70W.
Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of Florida
later today through Fri as a cold front moves into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from 31N79W to central
Florida on Fri, from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas into western
Cuba Fri night, from 31N67W to central Cuba on Sat, then stall
and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba on Sun. A band of showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front. High pressure
north of the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon.
$$ Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 20 02:36:00 2021
397
AXNT20 KNHC 191736
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds are
occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz in
association with reinforcing cold air behind a cold front. An
altimeter pass from 19/1114 UTC showed seas of 16 to 17 ft from
21N-23N between 94.5W-96W. NOAA buoy 42055 (22.1N 93.9W) reported
significant wave heights of 16 ft and winds 33 kt gusting to 39
kt this morning around 1300 UTC. The gales are expected to end
early this afternoon as high pressure builds over the basin. Seas
will subside this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tEAFOvWdUINUpMbw7VW1h9doDmU2rLvwC9z8TCeDMewEgh3M5nxwTERQ-xpRg6vGbQJrR2ma$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N
between 14W-21W, from 04S-00N between 22W-28W and from 00N-06N
between 26W-34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident from 01S-05N between 42W-48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from Clearwater Florida near 28N83W to the
Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W to N Guatemala near 17N90W. NWS
Doppler Radar and GOES-16 satellite imagery show scattered
moderate showers and isolated tstorms within 45 nm either side of
the cold front, mainly north of 23N and east of 88W, including
portions of northern Florida. Gale force N winds are occurring
well behind the front offshore of Veracruz. See the Special
Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A recent
ASCAT pass from around 19/1500 UTC shows near gale force N winds
are elsewhere behind the front south of 24N and west of 89W.
Strong winds cover most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the
front, although winds off the Texas coast have diminished to
moderate due to a 1034 mb high pressure moving in over central
Texas.
Gale force winds will end offshore Veracruz by early afternoon.
The cold front will continue moving southeastward, and exit the
basin by this evening. High pressure will be in control of the
Gulf into Sunday. The next cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf Sunday night into Monday morning, and move across
the basin through Tue.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to strong trade winds are noted over the eastern and
central Caribbean as shown by a recent ASCAT pass as well as ship
and buoy observations, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are north of Honduras, with moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. No significant
shower or tstorm activity is noted other than a few fast-moving
trade-wind showers across the eastern Caribbean.
A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move through the Yucatan
Channel and into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will
stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat, then
dissipate through Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the
front north of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds Sun
night, and overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of
Colombia Sun night through Tue night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front is from 32N79W to 30N81W. A cold front is from
30N81W to St. Augustine Florida to Clearwater Florida. Scattered
showers are within 75 nm NW of the front. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are within 30 nm SE of the front. A recent ASCAT
pass shows that fresh to locally strong S winds precede the front
north of 28N. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft in the western
Atlantic to the east and northeast of the Bahamas. Surface
ridging extends from a 1027 mb high near 29N58W to the coast of
central Cuba near 22N78W. A surface ridge also extends E from the
high to 25N38W to a 1022 mb high near 25N26W to 31N11W. Gentle
winds are near the ridge axis, except for moderate winds in the
Bahamas. Fresh to strong trade winds are from 07N-24N between
46W-70W, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. A cold front enters the area
north of the ridge axis in the east-central Atlantic from 32N29N
to 28N38W, with a dissipating cold front from 28N38W to 32N51W.
Fresh to strong W winds are from 29N-32N between 20W-38W.
Northerly swell is propagating into the waters north of 27N, east
of 45W, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft by this evening.
For the forecast, the front off Florida will become entirely a
cold front this afternoon and move eastward, reaching from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba by late Sat and
from 32N50W to 24N65W to central Cuba late Sun. The SW portion of
the front will stall and weaken from 24N65W to central Cuba late
Sun. Active showers and tstorms will continue to accompany the
front. High pressure following the front will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic Sat night
through Mon. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast
Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
Tue night.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 20 15:43:00 2021
567
AXNT20 KNHC 201017
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
05N20W to 01S27W to 01S35W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 01N-04N between 10W-20W, and from 03S-03N
between 25W-35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure is building across the northern Gulf in the wake of
a cold front that moved through the Gulf of Mexico earlier. Fresh
to strong north winds are still ongoing over the southern Gulf,
with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate north winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted over the northwest Gulf, with gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas in the northwest Gulf. Drier air is moving into the basin and
no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed.
Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the high pressure
will build across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the
Carolinas. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
early Mon morning, and move across the basin through Tue. Looking
ahead, a third front may approach the northwest Gulf by Wed night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front reaches from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Recent buoy and earlier scatterometer satellite data
indicated 20 to 30 kt winds west of the front, with seas
estimated to be 6 to 9 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong
trade winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean, with 6 to
9 ft seas. Winds are a little stronger off the coast of northeast
Colombia where a recent ship observation confirmed 30 kt winds.
Seas off the coast of Colombia are estimated to be as high as 11
ft. Moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern
Caribbean. A few showers are evident over the northwest Gulf near
the front, and across the southeast Caribbean.
For the forecast, the front will move little then stall from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras today, before dissipating
Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the
area will support fresh to strong NE winds east of 80W into Sun,
fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, and
overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night
through mid week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 65W, a cold front passes through 32N73W through the
northern Bahamas Island to central Cuba. Recent observations
indicate fresh to strong N winds and seas to 8 ft west of the
front. Observations from buoy 41048 near 32N69.5W provides
evidence that fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front and 6 to
9 ft seas north of 28N. A surface ridge extending along 25N is
supporting moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft seas farther south,
except for fresh E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas off the coast of
Hispaniola.
For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeast then
will stall and weaken along roughly 23N across the central
Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the front will
support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic
tonight through Mon morning. The next front will move off the NE
Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by mid week. Strong to near-gale force SW winds and
building seas are likely ahead of the front north of 28N Tue and
Tue night.
Elsewhere farther east, 1026 mb high pressure is centered near
28N50W. A cold front extends from near the Canary Islands to
26N35W. The high pressure is supporting fresh trade winds and 6 to
9 ft seas farther south into the tropical waters west of 40W.
Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 12 ft seas with NW swell accompany
the front north of 25N and west of 40W. Moderate NE winds and 5 to
7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 21 02:08:00 2021
623
AXNT20 KNHC 201811
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC SAT FEB 20 2021
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1650 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. GALES WILL RETURN AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID-WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
08N13W TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO 02N30W TO
01S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N- 08N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 10W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
00N-06N BETWEEN 17W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF BRAZIL.
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
YESTERDAY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1500 UTC REVEALS FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS. OVER
THE WESTERN GULF, WINDS TRANSITION FROM NE-E BECOMING MODERATE
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, WINDS MAY BE STRONGER DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
EARLY MON MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. LOOKING
AHEAD, A THIRD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST GULF BY WED
NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.
AS OF 1500 UTC: THE COLD FRONT REACHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1400
UTC INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT, WITHIN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6 TO 9 FT. HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE INDICATED TO BE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS
FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN, BECOMING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO COLOMBIA. A SHIP OFFSHORE OF NE
COLOMBIA NEAR 13N76W REPORTED 30 KT WINDS, AND A BUOY OBSERVATION
FROM CLOSE BY ESTIMATED SEAS TO BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS EAST OF 80W INTO SUN, WITH OVERNIGHT PULSES TO GALE
FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST OF 65W, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W THROUGH THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
STATIONARY. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH N-NW WINDS
AND SEAS TO 8 FT WEST OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 26N.
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY RANGE
FROM 6-9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN
ALONG ROUGHLY 23N ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, REACHING
FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 28N TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
FARTHER EAST, 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N43W.
THE HIGH IS KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TRADES TO OCCUR ABOVE
20N WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-7 FT. SOUTH OF 20N, WINDS BECOME
FRESH WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF 40W.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
25N32W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH
OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 15 FT SEAS WITH NW SWELL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 40W.
$$
MORA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 21 16:18:00 2021
346
AXNT20 KNHC 210907
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure
building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure
found over northern Colombia will support pulses gale- force
northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia beginning tonight and continuing through the middle of
week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please
read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pU9wNKdgOcxyVJFUEz23BFOASYnFcL0NmTbyBnIFjI2A2KMKRXj1YB0dOS9i7OTszpA0Qyf5$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W
to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-06N between 19W-31W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure over Virginia to the
southwest Gulf. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer
satellite data indicated moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the
eastern half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh E-SE winds over
the northwest Gulf, with gentle to moderate E winds in the
southwest Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to
5 ft over the western Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed.
As for the forecast: The ridge extending from 1036 mb high
pressure over Virginia to the southwest Gulf will shift east today
and tonight ahead of cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf
early Mon morning. The front will stall across the southern Gulf
late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking
ahead, a third front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu
morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico, Mexico Thu
night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from central Cuba through Roatan to
central Honduras. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
over the northwest Caribbean near the front, mainly off Belize and
the coast of western Honduras. Recent buoy and scatterometer
satellite data indicate moderate to fresh winds west of the front
and in the lee of Cuba. The buoy data also indicates seas are
likely 5 to 8 ft west of the front. The same scatterometer swath
indicates fresh to strong winds off Colombia, where seas are
likely 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere
over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Regional radar indicates scattered showers in the trade wind flow
in the Atlantic waters east of the Windward Island, moving mainly
toward Martinique and Dominica, with isolated showers elsewhere
the northern Windward Islands and and the southern Leeward
Islands.
As for the forecast: The stationary front from central Cuba to
central Honduras will dissipate later today. High pressure north
of the area building in the wake of the front will support fresh
NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba
tonight into Mon. The pattern will also support overnight pulses
to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night through mid
week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N60W southwestward to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent buoy observations and earlier
scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds west
of the front. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 10 ft in open waters
in this area. Scatterometer data also indicates fresh SW winds
within 120 nm east of the front, north of 29N.
Farther east, a ridge is analyzed east of the front, from 1024 mb
high pressure near 26N43W westward along 25N to 65W, supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic waters
south of 20N, and mainly gentle winds north of 20N. NW swell is
supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft north of 20N and east of 40W. N
swell of 6 to 9 ft is noted S of 15N and west of 35W 4 to 6 ft are
noted elsewhere.
As for the forecast west of 65W: The cold front will continue to
move southeast, then stall and weaken along roughly 23N across
the central Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the
front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
western Atlantic through Mon morning. The next front will move off
the NE Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to near- gale force SW
winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of
29N early Tue and Tue night.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Feb 22 02:09:00 2021
444
AXNT20 KNHC 211808
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure
building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure
found over northern Colombia will support pulses of gale- force
northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia beginning tonight and continuing through the middle of
week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vCjPj4V6U6D_T92Qie4OpHUD8P27DxVmmUXv8K8VSFP7uqWxgAUtYsdJJZIuEeNtobgAAza3$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N31W
to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted south of the ITCZ between
20W-25W. Similar convection is noted from 00N-05N between 32W-
50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Ridging continues to dominate the Gulf region anchored by a 1038
mb high located over Virginia. The latest scatterometer data
reveals moderate to fresh return flow over most of the basin,
with gentle to moderate E winds in the southwest Gulf. Seas are
4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to5 ft over the western
Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
observed.
As for the forecast: The high pressure center will shift east
through tonight ahead of a cold front expected to move into the
NW Gulf early Mon morning. The new front will stall across the
southern Gulf late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through
Wed. Looking ahead, a third front will move into the northwest
Gulf Thu morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico,
Mexico Thu night.
CARIBBEAN SEA
Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of
Colombia.
As of 1500 UTC: The stationary front extending from Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras has dissipated in the Caribbean Sea. A
low pressure center of 1019 mb has formed along a surface
trough in the Gulf of Honduras. This small area of convergent
low-level flow is supporting the continuation of cloudiness,
revealed in the latest visible satellite imagery, as well as
scattered to isolated showers over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
in this region range from 6 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, fresh NE
winds are noted in the northwest and central Caribbean, with
fresh trades over the eastern portion of the basin. Seas are
5 to 7 ft. High pressure north of the area is allowing dry
conditions to prevail, aside from scattered showers embedded
in the trade wind flow in the eastern Caribbean near the
Windward Islands.
As for the forecast: High pressure north of the area building
in the wake of the front will support fresh NE winds east of
80W through this morning, and across the Windward Passage and
in the lee of Cuba this evening through Mon. The pattern will
also support the overnight pulses to gale force off the coast
of Colombia tonight through mid-week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N55W southwestward to 25N72W
where the boundary transitions to stationary and continues
to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent scatterometer
data indicates fresh to strong northerly winds west of the
front, becoming northeasterly west of 70W. Seas are estimated
to be 7 to 10 ft in open waters in this area, reaching 11 ft
near the north-central Bahamas. Scatterometer data also
indicates fresh to strong SW winds within 120 nm east of the
front, north of 29N. Scattered showers may still be along
and within 100 nm of the front.
Farther east, a 1023 mb high is centered near 27N40W keeping
dry conditions in place for the rest of the basin. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are across the tropical Atlantic
waters south of 20N, and mainly gentle winds north of 20N.
Seas are generally 6 to 12 ft north of 20N and east of 50W.
Seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted S of 15N and west of 35W, with
4 to 6 ft seas noted elsewhere.
As for the forecast west of 65W: The cold front will move
SE across the open Atlantic into Mon, then stall and weaken
along roughly 23N across the central Bahamas through late Mon.
High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through Mon morning.
The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night,
reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week.
Strong to near-gale force SW winds and building seas are
expected ahead of the front north of 29N early Tue and Tue
night.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 23 02:38:00 2021
345
AXNT20 KNHC 222211
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to locally strong winds off the
coast of Colombia will pulse to gale force off the coast of
Colombia during the overnight hours this week. Sea are forecast
to build to 12 ft during the period of strongest winds.
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Florida coast by this evening. The front will reach from
near Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Tue. Fresh to
strong S-SW winds are expected north of 27N between the front and
70W. Within this area, winds will increase to minimal gale-
force just ahead of the front, particularly from 29N-31N between
74W-76W. The front will continue to push eastward on Tue, with
the winds diminishing below gale- force by Tue night. Seas will
build to 8- 11 ft with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uQfeB9WRTCUSEaugO8OHuRnxqfECXBdhyogEKT1-hpm1TshXu92OLzH4BKveIrbJqhZUZwOh$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N120W to 04N31W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 25W and 44W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to near the
Texas-Mexico border. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the
front, with light to gentle winds east of the front. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range across the Gulf waters.
The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to south of
Brownsville, Texas by early Tue. The front will stall along 25N
by Tue night, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking
ahead, a weak front may stall over the Texas coast Thu and Thu
night, with areas of sea fog possible over the northwest Gulf by
the end of the week. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are expected in the SW gulf tonight.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters off the coast of
Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle
to moderate winds are in the western Caribbean. Seas are in the
8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and in
the lee of Cuba will diminish this evening as high pressure north
of the area shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh winds in these
regions will resume Wed night and pulse to fresh to strong again,
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds in the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean will continue through Sat night with
pulses to gale force off the coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See
the Special Features section for details.
A cold front extends from 32N38W to 25N58W, then continues
westward as a stationary front to the northern Bahamas. High
pressure is building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong
winds are N of 28N, east of the front to near 34W, and west of
the front to near 54W. Fresh to strong winds are also seen within
90 nm north of the stationary front between 60W and 72W. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the front. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 20N, with moderate to
fresh tradewinds south of 20N.
For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the stationary
front will dissipate tonight. High pressure building in the wake
of the front will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
across the western Atlantic S of 27N through early this evening.
The next front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and
reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong
to minimal gale force SW winds and building seas are expected
ahead of the front north of 29N Tue. Weak ridging will extend
from Bermuda to northeast Florida from mid week trough Sat.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Feb 24 02:14:00 2021
438
AXNT20 KNHC 231758
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to
build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds.
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving off the
Florida coast this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late this evening. Strong to minimal gale force SW
winds and building seas ongoing ahead of the front north of 29N.
Winds will diminish below gale- force by this afternoon. Seas
will build to 9- 11 ft with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!svMivOqwSh_8jSUfse35edkrw5vkx3CHXfaGm1kpMmw1JnBC4ehdVB8LqBj3kPZ-A7GL5Bdt$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N32W
to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 27W-
36W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 250 nm
north of the ITCZ between 40W-50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to near 25N87W,
then continues west as stationary to near 26N96W, offshore of
Southern Texas. No significant convection is associated with
this boundary. 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the
front, off southwest Louisiana near 30N90W. Recent buoy
observations and scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
return flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate
northerly winds elsewhere. Seas are likely calm across the Gulf,
reaching 3-5 ft.
For the forecast, the stationary portion of the front will
dissipate over the western Gulf today. The cold front will
continue to move SE and exit the basin this afternoon. There
will be an increasing risk of marine fog in the northwest Gulf
by Wed night as southerly winds draw in warm, moist air over the
cool shelf waters. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over
the Texas coast Thu and Thu night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of
Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.
The high pressure now east of the Bahamas is supporting
persistent fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off
Colombia. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft over much of this area.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the northwest Caribbean with
calm seas.
A fairly dry pattern has set up across the Caribbean, limiting
shower activity to a few training cells in the trade wind flow
north of the ABC Islands. Very little shower activity is evident
across the Windward and Leeward Islands. Little change is
expected for the forecast through the remainder of the week.
High pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to gale force
off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early
morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in the Windward
Passage Wed night and again Fri night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the
Special Features section for details.
A cold front extends from 32N72W to Southern Florida near West
Palm Beach. The boundary is moving across Southern Florida and
continues westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Recent
scatterometer data from 1400 UTC reveals fresh to strong NW
winds off Florida behind the front, and fresh to strong winds
ahead of the front north of 20N and west of 60W. Scattered
thunderstorms are also active in a line along the boundary
mainly north of 27N between 71W and 79W.
A surface ridge extending from 1031 mb high pressure center near
32N47W is shifting eastward ahead of the front. Fresh NE to E
winds are evident in ASCAT data on the eastern and southern edge
of this ridge, where a weak shear line is evident from 24N40W to
22N56W. The shear line is trailing the western portion of a cold
front reaching 32N29W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring
within 180 nm of the front on either side, north of 28N. In
addition to winds, squally showers are possible along this
boundary. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over much of the open Atlantic
south of 32N, with a large contribution of northerly swell,
except 8 to 12 ft in the area near the front north of 27N.
For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the front is
forecast to weaken and reach from 28N65W to 26N72W by Wed
morning and move E of the area Wed afternoon. Surface ridging
will dominate the regional waters through Sat, supporting fresh
to strong winds S of 22N with the strongest winds being between
the Turk and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 25 02:09:00 2021
501
AXNT20 KNHC 241722
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force NE to E winds will continue to
pulse at nighttime and in the early morning for the next several
nights within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, as high
pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combines with the
Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are forecast to be 11-14 ft during
the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N20W to 0.5N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is observed from 01S-06N between 05W-14W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N-05N between
16W-33W, and from 08S-01S between 25W-43W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted from 01N-04N between 33W-46W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from near Marco Island, Florida to the
eastern Gulf near 25N83W. The portion of the stationary front
from 25N83W to 26N88W has dissipated. 1022 mb high pressure is
centered north of the front over the northeast Gulf, near 29N85W.
The high pressure is limiting winds over the northeast Gulf to 5
to 10 kt and seas to 2 ft or less. These gentle winds have been
confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass, and prevail east of 92W north
of 22N. Recent buoy and platform data are showing moderate to
fresh southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas over the northwest Gulf,
between the high pressure and 1009 mb low pressure over Oklahoma.
Dense fog is observed along central and southern portions of the
coast of Texas. No significant showers or tstorms are observed.
For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later
today. Weak surface ridging building across the N Gulf in the
wake the front will persist through Fri. Gentle to moderate SE
winds should prevail across most of the Gulf Sat and Sun. Sea fog
is likely to increase in coverage and density tonight over NW
Gulf, and could persist through the end of the week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Relatively dry air is present across the basin. A few passing
showers are possible east of Honduras and northern Nicaragua. A
recent ASCAT pass from late this morning shows strong trades over
the central Caribbean south of 16N between 68W-78W, with near
gale force winds within 120 nm of the north coast of Colombia.
Fresh winds are elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean.
Moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean. An altimeter pass from
early Wed morning around 24/0915 UTC shows seas of 2-4 ft in the
NW Caribbean. Seas are likely 5-7 ft in the eastern and 7-10 ft
in the central portion of the basin.
For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the region will
support fresh to strong E trades across the central and E
Caribbean through at least Sun night, with winds pulsing to gale
force off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early
morning hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward
Passage tonight, persisting through at least Sun night. Fresh to
strong E trades should develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night
and again Sun night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through 32N57W to 28N66W to 26.5N73W. The
front continues as a stationary front from 26.5N73W to the
northwest Bahamas to near Ft. Lauderdale Florida. Scattered
showers are occurring within 30 nm of the stationary front from
the NW Bahamas to SE Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
along and within 60 nm ahead of the cold front from 28N-32N
between 55W-63W. A recent ASCAT pass from Wed morning shows fresh
winds on both sides of the cold front, mainly north of 28N and
east of 66W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring within this
area of fresh winds. A 1022 mb high pressure over the W Atlantic
near 33N71W is creating mostly gentle winds north of 24N and west
of 70W, except for locally moderate near the stationary front.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft are present over the open waters of the western
Atlantic between the Bahamas and 65W.
Farther east, a 1035 mb high pressure is centered near 34N31W. A
cold front extends from the Madeira Islands to 29N20W to 24N34W.
A shear line continues from 24N34W to 22N45W to 23N52W. Isolated
showers are possible near the front and shear line. The ASCAT
pass shows strong NE winds within 120 nm north of the cold front
and shear line, mainly east of 40W. Moderate winds of a similar
direction are within 60 nm south of the cold front and shear
line. South of that, fresh to strong trade winds prevail across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean. N swell with E wind waves are
producing combined seas of up to 10 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic
waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles. These conditions will
prevail through at least Sun night. Farther north, a 24/0726 UTC
altimeter pass showed seas of 8-9 feet from 20N-30N between
48W-54W. Seas are likely 10-14 ft north of 24N between 20W-40W.
For the forecast west of 65W, the portion of the frontal boundary
west of 65W should dissipate tonight. A new, weak cold front will
move from west to east across the waters north of 28N Thu and
Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the second
front will support fresh to strong E winds across the waters
south of 22N late Fri through at least Sun night.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Jan 25 02:41:00 2021
630
AXNT20 KNHC 241755
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure located
north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over Colombia and
Panama will continue to lead to northeast to east winds to pulse
to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during
the overnight and early morning hours through at least Wed. Wave
heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range
of 8-12 ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!q7YDsHseZAgagPk5AkYvAyav5XfuDF7LCEDidJ8xIk0ZOsn6xuvJCOQdvQ5jG3wvrPmPKinN$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N15W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N25W to 03N36W and to near 01N46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-39W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between
07W-13Wm, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-34W and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W-27W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 15Z, a stationary front extends from near Fort Myers,
Florida northwestward to 27N84W, where it becomes a warm front
continuing northwestward to inland far southwestern Mississippi.
Satellite imagery shows patches of low stratus type clouds and
sea fog over the NE Gulf and over the southeastern Gulf from 25N-
28N between 82W-87W. Smaller patches of similar type clouds and
fog are advecting northward over the most of the western Gulf.
Small isolated showers moving northward are over some sections of
the central and western Gulf. Sky conditions are mostly clear
over the far southeastern Gulf south of 25N and over sections of
the south-central Gulf.
As for the forecast: the stationary front will gradually weaken
through this evening as the warm front continues to lift
northward. The area of fog over the NE Gulf will remain through
tonight, while the fog over the southeastern Gulf slowly erodes.
Building high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will bring
increasing southerly return flow and building seas over the
western Gulf during today and through Mon. The ridge will weaken
late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western Gulf and
becomes stationary by early Tue. The front will then get
reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the basin into Thu
night. In the wake of this front, gale force north winds are
expected Wed afternoon through Thu over sections of the western
Gulf.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours near the coast of Colombia through the next
few days. Please, refer to the Special Features section above
for details.
Elsewhere, latest ASCAT and buoy data indicate that mainly
moderate to fresh trades are present, with the exceptions of
fresh to strong trades over the southern part of the central
Caribbean near the gale wind area and gentle to moderate trades
over the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds are over the Windward Passage. Very stable
atmospheric conditions present throughout, both aloft and at the
low-levels, is allowing for only small patches of rather shallow
moisture in the form of scattered to broken low clouds to exist
across the basin. These clouds are quickly moving westward and
some may be attendant by brief passing isolated showers. Small
patches of low-level clouds with isolated showers that are also
moving quickly westward are near Puerto Rico and the Lesser
Antilles.
As for the forecast: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
continue to allow for the fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through at least Wed night. Winds elsewhere will
change little in speeds through Tue night, except winds will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras during that
time. North swell will propagate through the Tropical North
Atlantic waters late Mon night through Thu night. A cold front
will approach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
Mon night. Another cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late
Thu followed by fresh to strong northerly winds into the weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 32N46W to
25N59W and to 24N69W, where it transitions to a stationary front
to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida. Broken to overcast low
and mid-level clouds, with patches of rain and possible scattered
showers are along and within 90-120 nm north of the front. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 33N44W to 25N54W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the trough
north of 28N, while scattered moderate convection is within about
120 nm east of the trough from 25N-28N. This activity is being
enhanced by upper divergence occurring east of a broad upper
trough that reaches from well north of the area southward to near
21N and between 47W-65W. Latest ASCAT data shows fresh to strong
southwest winds east of the pre-frontal to near 42W. Another cold
front is along a position from near 32N54W to 29N61W, where it
begins to weaken to 28N70W. Scattered to broken low clouds, with
possible isolated showers are along and within 60 nm north of the
front east of 61W, while scattered low clouds mark the front west
of 61W. Satellite imagery, quite impressively, shows cold-air
stratocumulus covering the waters north of the second front
between 54W-73W. Latest ASCAT data passes depict strong northwest
to north winds within the area of stratocumulus clouds.
A weak trough extends from 21N52W to 15N54W. Isolated showers are
possible near the trough.
Remnants of old frontal boundaries are presently identified as
weak convergence lines: one extends from 25N50W to the northern
Leeward Islands, and the other one extends from near 24N56W to
21N61W to 20N64W and to the northern part of the Mona Passage and
to inland the east coast of the Dominican Republic. Mostly
scattered low clouds, with possible isolated showers are along and
near these convergence lines.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1024 mb located just
south of the Madeira Islands near 31N16W. Moderate to fresh winds
are along the southern periphery of the ridge.
As for the forecast: The stationary front will gradually weaken
through this evening, while the cold front that extends from near
32N46W to 25N59W and to 24N69W is overtaken by a reinforcing surge
of high pressure. This will tend to push the front south to along
21N by Sun night and into the Greater Antilles Mon night. Southerly
flow will increase across the waters east of north-central
Florida Mon into Tue. Low pressure near Bermuda will bring strong
west winds to the northeast waters Tue night into Wed. A stronger
cold front will move off the southeastern U.S coast Wed night,
while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of
the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very
large seas are expected with this system, mainly to the north of
27N. This could lead to hazardous marine conditions over those
waters.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jan 26 02:18:00 2021
818
AXNT20 KNHC 251748
TWDAT
000
AXNT20 KNHC 251017
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the
Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will
continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90
nm off the coast of Colombia each night through at least early
Wed morning. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast
to be in the range of 10-13 ft, mainly around daybreak each day.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uQKTddaSbv8XaRZrTo2X-LoPpcT6teXpJr1n5wupSPrXrFnnawmgYELN58SgajiwTdb9OnY2$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to 03N40W to the
coast of northern Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 00N to 06N W of 15W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Patchy dense fog can be seen on satellite along the northern
Gulf coast from Galveston, TX to Morgan City, LA and near the
Florida coast from Apalachicola to the western Apalachee Bay.
Fog will be possible in these areas until this evening. Buoy,
platform observations, and latest scatterometer data, depict
fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across the western Gulf of
Mexico. In the eastern Gulf, high pressure over the western
Atlantic is driving mainly moderate to locally fresh SE winds.
Other than the patchy dense fog mentioned above, no significant
weather is observed in the Gulf of Mexico.
The pressure gradient between a ridge over the eastern Gulf
waters and lower pressure over Mexico and Texas will continue to
support fresh to strong S winds across W Gulf today. A weak cold
front will move off the coast of Texas this evening, then stall
over NW Gulf through Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach
the stationary front by Tue night, and the combined front will
quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh
to strong N winds will follow the front, with gales developing
over W Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about gale force winds during the overnight and early morning
hours near the coast of Colombia.
According to the latest scatterometer pass, moderate to fresh
trades prevail over the Caribbean, with an area of strong winds
observed in the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola.
Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected in the Windward
passage today, extending to the night hours. Otherwise,
middle-level water vapor imagery show dry and stable air over
the basin, with only a few plumes of shallow moisture depicted
in the low-level precipitable water imagery. This shallow
moisture along with middle to upper level diffluent flow may
support isolated showers mainly over the NW Caribbean today.
The Bermuda high north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the
Colombian Low will support trades near gale to gale force,
continuing during the overnight and early morning hours through
Wed night. Pulsing near gale to gale force winds will likely
resume again in this area Fri night. Mainly moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night with seas building to
6-8 ft. N swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Tue through Thu. A reinforcing cold front is approaching
the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today,
reaching these islands on Tue. A strong cold front will enter
the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds
over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic
from 31N40W to 22N52W and terminates at 20N72W near the Turks
and Caicos Islands. Fresh to strong SW to W winds associated
with the front are north of 25N between 39W and 60W as indicated
by the latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection
and isolated tstms are within 180 nm either side of the front N
of 27N. Otherwise, surface high pressure prevails over the SW N
Atlc waters, being anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near
30N74W. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
southerly flow between the center of high pressure and the NE
coast of Florida.
Looking ahead in the western Atlantic, the cold front extending
along 21N will continue to move southward into the Greater
Antilles on Tue. S winds will increase across the waters east of
N Florida today and tonight. Low pressure crossing north of
Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the NE waters on
Tue. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed
night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies
north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas
are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night,
mainly N of 27N.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the
influence of a ridge, anchored by a high pressure of 1026 mb
located north of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are
along the southern periphery of the ridge.
$$
Mahoney/Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Jan 27 02:07:00 2021
382
AXNT20 KNHC 262202
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE
U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast region. Near gale to gale
force winds and very large seas are expected with this system
Wed night through early Fri, mainly N of 26N from the NE Florida
offshore waters to the central Atlantic waters. Seas as high as
20 to 30 ft are expected across the western and central Atlantic,
particularly N of 27N between 50W and 70W by Thu night, with
seas of 12 ft reaching the waters just E of the northern and
central Bahamas. These hazardous marine conditions will dominate
the central Atlantic by Fri.
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located N of the Caribbean
Sea combined with a developing low over NW Colombia will support
minimal gale force winds over Colombia adjacent waters tonight
through early Wed morning. Wave heights in the range of 10-14 ft
are expected during the peak winds tonight. Gale conditions are
possible again Friday and Saturday night.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front will reach
a stationary front analyzed along the far western Gulf of Mexico
by Wed morning, and the combined front will quickly move
southeastward across the basin through Thu. Strong to near
gale-force northerly winds will follow the front, with gales
developing over the W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late
Wed early evening through Thu. Seas are forecast to build to
10-14 ft over the SW Gulf by early Thu morning.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!p5Y_yfDcm3wPw5u87li62tHCpsiRXc0KhHa95Q2odl9UvmnF5uVfPjWUd1rs5rJ5vAVzwXE8$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N14W to 04N36W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 06N between 22W and 44W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about a gale warning for the far western Gulf of Mexico.
A stationary front extends from south- central Louisiana SW to a
1009 mb low over the SW Gulf. A ridge extends across the eastern
Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail over the
eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over the western
Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 4-6
ft over the western Gulf.
The stationary front will continue to linger across the region
through tonight. A reinforcing cold front will reach the
stationary front by Wed morning and the combined front will
quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to
strong N winds will follow the front with gales developing over
W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu.
Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin
building over W Gulf on Fri evening ahead of the next cold front
moving off the Texas coast by Sun.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about a gale warning for the Colombia adjacent waters.
High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to near gale
winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over the
western Caribbean.
High pressure N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian
low will support minimal gale force winds near the northern
Colombian coast tonight through early Wed morning. Gale
conditions are possible again Fri and Sat night. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras through
tonight. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu.
Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over
the NW Caribbean waters on Fri and through the passes Fri
afternoon through Sat. N swell will propagate into the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters today through
the weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about an Atlantic gale warning.
West of 65W: Surface high pressure of 1021 mb is centered near
26N66W with ridge extending westward across Florida. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted on either side of the ridge axis, with
gentle to moderate winds along the ridge axis. Seas are in the
6-8 ft range east of 70W, and 3-5 ft over the open waters west of
70W.
For the forecast, low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will
bring fresh to strong W winds off the NE coast of Florida tonight
into Wed. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed
night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies
north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas
are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly
N of 27N. Winds should diminish by Fri and seas should subside
by Sun.
Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N34W SW to the NE
Caribbean. Fresh to near gale winds prevail within 210 nm east
of the front N of 28N, with fresh to strong winds west of the
front and N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N
of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. The cold front
has ushered in a set of NW swell. Seas of 12-18 ft are noted N
of 25N between 35W and 57W, with seas in the 8-12 ft range
elsewhere N of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Jan 27 23:10:00 2021
075
AXNT20 KNHC 271742
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high
as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near
31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across
the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales will first
begin late tonight just east of northern Florida. By Thu evening,
the gales will be occurring north of 27N between 57W-73W. The
gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are
expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning
Thu afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through
Saturday. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oteDtfy2Sb60bpi3R7J7SX8FhXGlIOnCn40nW0LeHio7TmpypkYe8fIYNWHQQS1Uz19-g0Gl$
for more
details.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that currently extends
from Biloxi, MS to just N of Tampico, Mexico will quickly move
southeastward across the basin through Thu. The latest ASCAT pass
shows that strong to near gale force N winds are occurring NW of
the front, with frequent gusts to gale force possible offshore of
Brownsville, TX in the coastal waters. Sustained gales will
develop early this afternoon over the west-central Gulf and
offshore Tampico, and then over the SW Gulf tonight through Thu.
Winds and seas will diminish below gale Thu night, and continue
diminishing on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-12 ft during this
event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oteDtfy2Sb60bpi3R7J7SX8FhXGlIOnCn40nW0LeHio7TmpypkYe8fIYNWHQQS1Uz19-g0Gl$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N17W to 02N27W to
04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted roughly from the equator to
06N between 28W and the coast of Brazil.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front extends from Biloxi, MS near 30N88W to just north of
Tampico, Mexico near 23N98W. Ahead of the cold front, a pre-
frontal trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to a 1012 mb low
pressure centered at 22N96W. According to NWS Doppler radar, a
line of moderate to strong convection is noted within 30nm of the
pre-frontal trough north of 28N and east of 88W. In the central
and eastern Gulf, observations show gentle to moderate southerly
flow, with seas mainly 2-4 ft.
Areas of dense fog with visibilities reduced to near 1 nm are
possible through this afternoon east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River to near the west coast of Florida.
The cold front will continue moving south and east across the
western and central Gulf of Mexico today. The front will be over
central Florida to Veracruz, Mexico tonight and exit the basin
by Thu afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front
with gales developing over west-central Gulf this afternoon and
over the SW Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will
diminish on Fri. In the wake of this strong cold front, winds
will begin to veer by the end of the week into the weekend as
high pressure slides from over the southern Mississippi Valley
to the Carolinas. Southerly return winds should begin increasing
over the W Gulf on Fri evening ahead of the next cold front
moving off the Texas coast by Sun. That next front is forecast
to approach the SE Gulf by the end of the weekend/early next
week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic to south
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, terminating just south of
the Mona Passage. Isolated showers remain possible along this
boundary. Strong winds were observed by the scatterometer in the
central Caribbean, with near gales off the coast of Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the NW and far E Caribbean.
Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the south-
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Gale conditions
are possible Fri night and Sat night north of Colombia. A strong
cold front will move across the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the
front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW
Caribbean waters Fri through Sat and over the Atlantic passages
from Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the
NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic.
High pressure of 1022 mb is noted near 25N62W with a ridge axis
extending west-northwest across the northern Bahamas to near Lake
Okeechobee, Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
noted from 22N-27N east of the Bahamas to 50W, with moderate to
fresh E trades south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft outside the
Bahamas to 65W.
To the east, a stationary front extends from near 31N32W to the
northern Leeward Islands near 17N62W. Isolated showers are
possible near this boundary. A stationary front is along 32N
between 44W-57W. An area of fresh W winds is noted north of 28N
between 35W and 65W, while large mixed northerly swell of 8-13 ft
dominates the open waters east of 60W. Fresh NE winds were noted
in the latest scatterometer pass from 05N-20N between 40W-60W.
A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight while
the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the
forecast area. The front will stretch from 31N68W to the Straits
of Florida by Thu afternoon and from 31N58W to eastern Cuba by
Thu night. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with
this system tonight through early Fri, mainly N of 27N. Winds
should diminish Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold
front may move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jan 28 22:16:00 2021
939
AXNT20 KNHC 281807
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front moved off the SE U.S.
coast early this morning while the associated area of low
pressure is rapidly intensifying north of the forecast area.
Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas are
expected with this system as it moves eastward across the
Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales ongoing north
of 27N and west of the front will spread east through the end
of the week. The gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri
evening. Seas are expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between
40W-74W, beginning this afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing
eastward through Sat. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uKJ1WZmmsNy6il7VBhwlOqQUAk1GVWFIv6IIguOc9KeD0lNhC4HCKej_fvEgB40YjBnc2usc$
for more details.
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure will build north
of the area in the wake of a strong cold front by the end
of the week through the weekend. The combination of the
building high and the low pressure over northern Colombia
will support pulsing gale force winds north of the coast of
Colombia Fri night and again on Sat night. Winds will be
strong to near gale force tonight. Seas will build to around
12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uKJ1WZmmsNy6il7VBhwlOqQUAk1GVWFIv6IIguOc9KeD0lNhC4HCKej_fvEgB40YjBnc2usc$
for more details.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from the
southwest coast of Florida near 24N81W to the central Gulf
near 23N90W to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W will exit
the basin by this evening. Gale force winds will persist over
the extreme SW Gulf through early this evening. Winds and
seas will diminish tonight through Fri, with peak seas to
around 13 ft today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uKJ1WZmmsNy6il7VBhwlOqQUAk1GVWFIv6IIguOc9KeD0lNhC4HCKej_fvEgB40YjBnc2usc$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N16W to
02N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
the ITCZ from the equator to 05N between 31W and 50W.
An additional area of scattered moderate convection is
noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between
05W and 13W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details
on a Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front extends from the southwest coast of Florida
near 24N81W to the central Gulf near 23N90W to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W. Outside of the gales,
fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted behind the front
in the central and W Gulf, with 6-10 ft seas.
The cold front will exit the basin late this afternoon.
Gale conditions over waters adjacent to Veracruz, Mexico
will continue through early this evening. Winds and seas
will diminish tonight through Fri. Return S winds should
begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold
front moving off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move
eastward across the basin and exit Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea
north of the coast of Colombia.
The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trades
in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest winds off
the coast of Colombia. Seas of 7-11 ft accompany these winds.
Across the rest of the basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail
with mainly moderate trades in the far eastern Caribbean.
Seas are 3-6 ft.
Fresh to strong winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean through Mon night, with gale conditions
developing over waters adjacent to NW Colombia Fri and
Sat nights. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean
later today through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds
will follow the front and affect the NW Caribbean waters
through Sat and the Windward and Mona passages from early
Fri through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean
passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend,
with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. A second
cold front is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western and central Atlantic.
West of 60W, the cold front mentioned in the Special Features
section extends from 31N73W to southeast Florida near
26N80W and continues into the Gulf. Strong winds are noted
ahead of the front north of 27N. A high pressure of
1020 mb is located near 24N61W with a ridge axis extending
to the Turks and Caicos ahead of a cold front discussed
above. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are under
the ridge between 18N-23N, with moderate to fresh winds
noted elsewhere away from the incoming cold front.
Seas are mainly 3-6 ft in a mix of old swells.
For the forecast west of 60W, the front will move quickly
eastward while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will
stretch from 31N69W to western Cuba by this afternoon, and
from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by tonight. Gale conditions
associated with this system are expected through early Fri,
mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri and seas should
subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE
U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the
Florida coast.
East of 60W, a stationary front extends from near 31N31W
to east of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N60W. A 972 mb
low pressure system well north of the area near 40N42W extends
a cold front along 32N. Mainly fresh to locally strong winds
are occurring north of 28N west of 40W. Moderate to fresh
trades dominate areas south of 28N, with 7-11 ft seas in
northerly swell.
$$
Mora/Mahoney
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 30 03:13:00 2021
799
AXNT20 KNHC 292240
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: An intense low pressure system
resides north of the area with a cold front trailing into the
subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W. Gales are occurring on both
sides of the front, mainly N of 28N between 45W and 64W. This
area of gale force winds will shift eastward with the front
through the evening, then move north of the forecast area. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vd11g7yrEGpoaRxJJN82QI6A3G2mr8PB6KXZ3dAUumWsuvNyNMpiGYiFSV8mjeKMVRAk5dYQ$
for more details.
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean into Tue night, with gale conditions expected to
develop near northern Colombia Saturday night. Seas are expected
to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia Sat night through
Sunday morning. Gale conditions may again pulse Sun night. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vd11g7yrEGpoaRxJJN82QI6A3G2mr8PB6KXZ3dAUumWsuvNyNMpiGYiFSV8mjeKMVRAk5dYQ$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W to
02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
from 01N to 06N between 19W and 33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface high pressure centered just N of the northern Gulf
coast allowing for moderate NE-E flow over the entire basin. Some
fresh winds are occurring the Yucatan Channel and offshore
Veracruz. A weak surface trough stretches from the NE Mexico coast
into the western Bay of Campeche and is producing scattered
moderate convection in the extreme SW Gulf.
Southerly winds will increase over western Gulf through Sat ahead
of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Sun.
The front will quickly move across the basin Sun through Mon.
High pressure in the wake of this front will bring fresh to strong
northerly winds across the Gulf through Mon. These winds will be
confined to the eastern Gulf Mon night and Tue and diminish on Tue
night. The front will be preceded by fresh to strong southerly
winds north of 27N through Sun. Strong southerly winds will
develop over the far western Gulf Wed and Wed night along with
building seas.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.
A previous cold front has devolved into a surface trough and
extends from Hispaniola across Jamaica and into the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection has developed in
association with this front in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
strong ENE winds are occurring offshore Colombia, with fresh winds
throughout the western basin. Locally strong winds are also
occurring in the Windward Passage. Across the eastern Caribbean,
generally moderate winds prevail.
The surface trough will move southward and dissipate early Sat,
while the remainder of the front will become stationary over the
far northwest part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sat and
gradually weaken through Sun. Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected near the
coast of Colombia during the overnight hours beginning tonight and
through Sun. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE
Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sat night through
Sun night. A second cold front is forecast to reach from western
Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, from the Dominican Republic
to the central Caribbean by late Tue and become stationary and
weaken over the far NE Caribbean. Mainly fresh north to northeast
winds will follow in behind this front, except for fresh to strong
winds through and near the Windward Passage.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic Ocean.
An intense low pressure system resides north of the area with a
cold front trailing into the subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W.
Fresh N winds behind this front encompass most of the western
Atlantic, with strong winds N of 25N. Seas up to 32 ft are highest
around 30N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
on either side of the front. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlantic is
dominated by surface ridging allowing for moderate trades to
prevail.
The cold front will move to just SE of the area early Sat and
become stationary through Sun while weakening. Large northerly
swell associated with the front will affect most of the waters
east of the Bahamas through Mon. Another strong cold front will
move offshore northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from
near 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tue. Strong to near
gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north
of 27N, while strong west to northwest winds are expected behind
it. Seas will quickly build over the northwest and central
forecast waters east and west of the front north of 27N from Sun
night through Mon, and over the rest of the waters east of the
Bahamas Tue and Tue night. These seas will begin to slowly subside
Wed and Wed night.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 30 18:38:00 2021
988
AXNT20 KNHC 301031
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the
low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds
near Colombia tonight. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft
north of Colombia tonight through Sunday morning. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sbK9N6mJTwmXgU4ghlvP7Pf1vIbCWz4_lTNidvkgzaPewOn_n0OemeH9ciDTCdsLJUpiPp1E$
for more details.
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from 31N66W to the
Dominican Republic by late Tue. Areas of gale-force southerly
winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N Sunday
night through early Tue. Seas associated with the front will
quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sbK9N6mJTwmXgU4ghlvP7Pf1vIbCWz4_lTNidvkgzaPewOn_n0OemeH9ciDTCdsLJUpiPp1E$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to
01N26W to 04N31W to 02N35W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 21W and 36W.
Moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 06N east of 15W near
the coast of Africa.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high pressure
over the Carolinas spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. The broad high
pressure will shift eastward through tonight. Southerly winds will
increase over the western Gulf of Mexico later today ahead of a
strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sunday. The
front will quickly move across the basin Sunday through Monday.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the region
Sunday night through early Tuesday. Strong southerly winds will
develop over the western Gulf Wednesday and Wednesday night, along
with building seas.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential
coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines
of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights
approaching 20 feet in some areas.
A dissipating cold front passes through the eastern sections of
the Dominican Republic, then south of Jamaica, to 17N87W near the
Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are associated with the front.
A weak surface trough passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean
to 13N65W in the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds, and a few showers are associated with the trough axis. The
monsoon trough is inland along the northern coast of Colombia.
The front in the NW Caribbean will drift southward then dissipate
later today. Strong high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Tuesday, with gale conditions expected near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE
Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters this
weekend, with the largest swell expected tonight through Sun
night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel on
Monday, and extend from the Dominican Republic to the central
Caribbean by late Tuesday.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through 32N43W to 19N68W in the eastern part
of the Dominican Republic. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds
and isolated embedded showers are within 60 nm on either side of
the front. Elsewhere, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans
the Atlantic Ocean, on either side of the cold front.
The cold front will stall and weaken from 22N55W to Puerto Rico
through Sun. Large northerly swell associated with the front will
affect most of the waters east of the Bahamas through Monday.
Another strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late
Sunday night, then reach from 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by
late Tuesday. Areas of gale-force southerly winds can be expected
ahead of this front north of 27N. Seas associated with the front
will quickly build over the forecast waters Monday and Tuesday.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 31 05:37:00 2021
419
AXNT20 KNHC 302229
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the
low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds
near Colombia tonight and again Sun night. Seas are expected to
increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia tonight into Sun. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t1wP2vIusAl4aTqaq1fWJJm1mhYjcPSt8ai6GtlbM6CVBZpbhqo3UYRNse1hUNMKXjYm8ege$
for more details.
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late Sun night, then progress to a line from
Bermuda to the Windward Passage Tue. Areas of gale-force
southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N
Sunday night through Tue. Seas associated with the front will
quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas
to 15 kt expected. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t1wP2vIusAl4aTqaq1fWJJm1mhYjcPSt8ai6GtlbM6CVBZpbhqo3UYRNse1hUNMKXjYm8ege$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 06N10W to 05N18W where it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 02N33W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-08N between 05W-
25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high
pressure centered over North Carolina spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. Seas range from 3-6 ft.
High pressure will shift E through tonight. Fresh to strong S
winds over the western Gulf will diminish tonight as a strong cold
front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move off the
Texas coast early Sun, and push across the basin through Mon.
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will
prevail across the region Sun night through early Tue. Strong to
near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf
Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas,
ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast
late Thu night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.
Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential
coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines
of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights
approaching 20 feet in some areas.
The stationary front over the NE basin has dissipated, as has
associated shower activity. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
through the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, deep- layer dry air is
maintaining generally fair weather conditions with moderate to
fresh trades across the rest of the basin.
Strong high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue. Large long-
period northerly swell will propagate through the northeastern
Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters during
the rest of this weekend and into early next week, with the
largest swell expected tonight through Sun night. A cold front is
forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula early
on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to
the central Caribbean by early Wed. It will gradually weaken and
dissipate by early Thu.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the west Atlantic Ocean.
A cold front has stalled from 32N42W to Puerto Rico. N of 28N,
there is some strong W winds behind the front, with areas to the
south having mainly moderate N winds. Showers previously
associated with the front have dissipated. A broad are of very
large swell is bringing seas in excess of 12 ft for areas N of 20N
and E of 75W, with heights peaking over 20 ft toward 30N from
Bermuda to just E of the stationary front. Elsewhere, high
pressure centered S of the Azores is dominating the eastern
Atlantic, bringing moderate to fresh trades S of 20N. High
pressure centered over North Carolina is bringing light to gentle
E winds N of the Bahamas and offshore Florida.
The stationary front over the far SE waters will weaken and
gradually dissipate through early Mon. Large long-period northerly
swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will subside a little
through Mon. Another strong cold front will move east of northern
Florida late Sun night, reach from near 26N65W to the Dominican
Republic by early Wed and stall. It will gradually weaken and
dissipate by early Thu. Northerly long-period swell associated
with the front will propagate through the forecast waters Mon
through mid-week, while combining with residual swell. The swell
will be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and
Thu night.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 31 18:10:00 2021
507
AXNT20 KNHC 311104
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours
tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are
expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oodKbz3IbBwj_E3hmGS0hB-iW-hpJ5docVKPDoQTFaddC8etPKaGkj7QoL2jCADjAw4ggilz$
for more details.
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE
Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected
ahead of this front north of 27N late tonight through Tue night.
Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the
forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in
the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oodKbz3IbBwj_E3hmGS0hB-iW-hpJ5docVKPDoQTFaddC8etPKaGkj7QoL2jCADjAw4ggilz$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N15W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from
04N25W to 00N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are within 240 nm either side of the monsoon
trough.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh return flow is across the basin ahead of the
next cold front expected to come off the coast of Texas this
morning. Seas range from 3-6 ft. Dry air at middle and lower
levels mantain fair weather conditions at this time.
The cold front is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to
south of Tampico early on Mon and move E of the basin early in
the afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop ahead and behind
the front this morning and prevail through Mon night. Strong to
near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf
Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas,
ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast
late Thu night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.
Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause
potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing
shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola
through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 feet in
some areas.
A plume of shallow moisture, remnant of a stationary front, is
supporting passing showers over portions of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and Jamaica. Dry, stable air dominates the remainder
basin, supporting fair weather.
Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to
near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through early Mon,
with gale conditions developing near the coast of Colombia again
tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean
will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period northerly swell will
propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical
N Atlantic waters into early next week, with the largest swell
expected through tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach from
western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it
reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
the NW basin through Tue and the far SW basin Tue and Wed.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A gale is forecast to begin late tonight over the NE Florida
offshore waters. See the Special Features section for details.
Surface ridging continue to dominate the SW N Atlantic as well as
the NE Atlantic forecast waters. Between the ridges, a stationary
front extending from 31N43W to 20N60W gradually weakens. Fresh to
strong winds are N of 28N W of the front to 65W and ahead of the
front to 42W with seas to 22 ft.
Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the
Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold
front will move east of northern Florida early on Mon, reach from
near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed where it will
stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force southerly winds
are expected ahead of this front tonight through Tue night.
Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will
propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week,
combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will
be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and Thu
night.
$$
Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 2 01:04:00 2021
617
AXNT20 KNHC 011739
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front in the W
Atlantic will continue to quickly move east this morning,
reaching from 32N61W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed. Gale-
force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of
27N today through Tue night, as the front moves eastward between
80W and 61W. Near gale force W to NW winds are expected behind the
front this afternoon into Tue afternoon, with frequent gusts to
gale force. Seas associated with the front are currently 11-14 ft,
and will build to 12-15 ft by Tue in the gale area. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vJGJHkFCyXi_bsUE2_b2evFgbZuYkn7WHBs7rbkigH7i_8ST6NrSra30Uzp2IMIhrfLW2G-O$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection exists near
the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 30W and 41W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, the strong cold front extends from the Florida
Straits, along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to
the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. NWS Doppler Radar
shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the
frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds with 6-10 ft seas are
noted behind the front. Deep layer dry air supports fair weather
basin-wide.
The cold front will quickly exit the Gulf by this afternoon.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the Gulf through
Tuesday. As the ridge gradually shifts east Tue and Wed,
southerly winds will return across the Gulf with seas building
over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front. The cold front
will reach the Texas coast Thu night and move across the NW and
north- central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh northerly
winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The strong to near gale force trade winds in the central
Caribbean have diminished to fresh to strong this morning as
high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. In this area,
seas are analyzed 8-12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 6-9 ft.
Gentle trades in the NW Caribbean observed by the latest
scatterometer pass are accompanied by seas of 3-6 ft.
Fresh to locally strong winds and large long-period N swell over
the E Caribbean, NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N
Atlantic will start to diminish Tue evening. A cold front is
forecast to quickly enter the NW Caribbean today, then stall as it
reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
the NW Caribbean today through Tue morning and the SW Caribbean
from Tue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will re-develop
over the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage Wed night and
prevail through Fri night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning associated with a quick moving cold front is
in effect for western Atlantic waters today through Tue night.
Please see the Special Features section above for details.
As of 1500 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale
Warning extends from 31N76W to the Florida Straits. Outside of
the Gale Warning, strong W to SW winds were observed by ASCAT
behind the front with strong ESE winds ahead of the front, all
north of 25N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
front, mainly north of 29N. An additional area of scattered
moderate convection is located ahead of the front from 24N to
31N between 70W and 76W, moving to the NE. Seas W of 65W are
6-9 ft except within the Gale Warning.
For the forecast W of 65W, the strong cold front will progress
eastward extending from 30N61W to the Dominican Republic from
19N68W by Wed. The front will stall before dissipating early on
Thu. Gale force southerly winds are ahead of this front and will
shift eastward with the front through early Wed. Northerly
long-period swell associated with the front will propagate
through the forecast waters today through mid-week, combining
with residual swell from a former front. The swell will begin to
subside as it becomes confined to the eastern section of the area
Thu through Fri night.
In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, 1025 mb high
pressure near 30N54W and another 1025 mb high pressure near the
Madeira Islands dominate. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail.
A weakening cold front extends from 31N35W to 28N41W where a
weakening stationary front then continues to 20N61W. The front
will dissipate later today or tonight.
$$
Mahoney/ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Feb 3 01:02:00 2021
927
AXNT20 KNHC 022138
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N64W to
eastern Cuba. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of
this front north of 27N through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W
to NW winds will continue behind the front through early this
evening. Seas associated with the front are peaking near 20 ft.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!slXwrGJUIowBqDlx-iV0F88Bl8e6GXcFqQuhMDs4ewWMRE9jhxSwsEhEXBpXWBAGtdj42nSe$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 04.5N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 04.5N21W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 09N between 20W-35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong N to NW
winds continue across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida. These winds will gradually diminish through this
evening as the ridge weakens. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere east of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 90W.
Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the SE Gulf, 1-3 ft over the
NW Gulf, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next couple of
days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
E of Florida supports fresh to strong northerly winds over the
eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These winds will
gradually diminish through tonight as the ridge weakens.
Southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf on Thu, ahead
of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico,
Mexico Fri afternoon and stall afterwards before dissipating Sat.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a
Dios, Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh winds and seas in the 5-7 ft
range prevail west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-8 ft, are noted elsewhere east of the front.
Winds over the SW Caribbean along the Nicaragua offshore waters
will reach near gale force by this evening. Winds will start to
diminish in the SW Caribbean Wed morning as the front stalls from
Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating Wed night. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central part of the basin and the Windward
Passage Thu and prevail through Sat night. Otherwise, long-period
N swell over the NE Caribbean passages will continue to subside
tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through
Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for
details.
Elsewhere west of 65W, the strong to gale force winds continue
across much of the waters west of the front, with gentle to
moderate winds east of the front. Seas are in the 10 to 18 ft
over the open waters east of the Bahamas and north of 23N, with
seas in the 6-10 ft range south of 23N and east of the Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from just
E of Bermuda to the easternmost tip of Cuba will reach from
26N65W to Haiti tonight, and from 24N65W to Dominican Republic on
Wed, then stall over the SE waters on Thu before dissipating on
Thu night. Strong to gale force winds are noted on either side
of the front. A reinforcing cold front will maintain these gale
conditions through Wed, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less
from W to E Wed night into Thu. Long period northerly swell in
the wake of the front will propagate across the forecast waters
and the Caribbean passages through Thu.
Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 26N38W, then
continues stationary to 25N48W. Near gale to gale force winds
prevail north of 23N between 60W and 65W. Fresh to strong SE to
S winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N between 53W and 60W. Fresh
to strong trades are noted south of 20N between 43W and 54W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere south of 23N, with
gentle to moderate winds north of 23N. Seas are in the 10-20 ft
range north of 26N between 60W and 65W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere
north of 20N. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range south of 20N.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 4 02:42:00 2021
700
AXNT20 KNHC 032217
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from
32N58W to 24N64W then stationary to Hispaniola. Near gale to
gale force winds are north of 27N west of the front to 73W. These
winds are expected to persist through early this evening. Seas
are 12-18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!p1gL1Wy20ZpZzWwHMARV6jywbo1hL9i3bMNVS4jot9_IoDIkLOTipcyjFFQVkk04hqzXcwRy$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N19W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N E of 21N to the coast of Africa. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 03N
between 31W and 46W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails across the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the basin. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range over the SE half of the basin, and 1-3 ft over
the NW half of the basin.
The area of high pressure will shift eastward through Thu, ahead
of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf early Fri
morning. The cold front will stall from the Big Bend of Florida
to Brownsville Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken and drift
northward through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong southerly
winds are expected ahead of the front on Thu.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from Haiti to Panama. Fresh to strong
winds, with seas of 7-10 ft, prevail south of 15N west of the
front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail
elsewhere west of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, are noted within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia,
with moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, elsewhere east
of the front.
The stationary front will weaken by tonight. High pressure
building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong
trade winds near the coast of Colombia beginning tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.
A cold front extends from 32N58W to 24N64W then stationary to
Hispaniola. Near gale to gale force winds are noted north of 27N
west of the front to 73W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere
north of 25N west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are seen
south of 25N. Seas are in the 12-18 ft range north of 27N between
60W and 75W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere over the open waters west of
65W. East of the front, high pressure dominates the forecast
waters, anchored by 1033 mb high centered near 36N41W. Fresh to
strong SE to S winds are north of 20N between 53W and 60W.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere north of
20N. Fresh to strong trades are found south of 20N. Seas of 7-10
ft are noted east of 60W, and 8-11 ft south of 20N.
For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
24N65W to Dominican Republic this evening, then stall and weaken
on Thu. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight and Thu. Long
period northerly swell in the wake of the front will propagate
across the forecast waters to the Caribbean passages through Thu.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 4 23:51:00 2021
656
AXNT20 KNHC 041736
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough exits the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 02N24W to the
northern coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of the ITCZ to 07N between 20W and 27W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 mb high pressure centered off the E coast of Florida
supports fair weather and gentle to moderate southerly winds
over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are less than 4 ft in the
E and central Gulf, increasing to 3-5 ft along the NW Gulf coast.
The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early
Fri morning. The front will then stall from central Florida
to Brownsville, Texas Fri night, then drift northward on Sat.
A reinforcing surge of cold air will push the front again
across the Gulf waters by late Sat, reaching the SE Gulf
waters on Sun, where it will stall by Sun night into Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weakening stationary front extends from Port-au-Prince, Haiti
to Colon, Panama. Moderate trades are present east of the front,
except for fresh to strong trades off the coast of Colombia.
Moderate N winds are noted west of the front to 82W. Gentle to
moderate E winds along the southern portion of a ridge continue
from 82W across the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the E and
central Caribbean, decreasing to 3-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.
Yesterday, cool air behind the stationary front led many local
stations in Cuba to report temperatures below 10C/50F. This
morning was no different, with 34 reports below 10C/50F, most
located in the Havana-Matanzas Plains. The lowest observation
recorded was 4.6C/40.3F at Union de Reyes. These cool temperatures
often occur between January 15 and February 15, which is
climatologically the coldest period in Cuba.
The stationary front will weaken and gradually dissipate today.
High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean.
Strong to near gale-force winds are expected near the coast
of Colombia at night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N57W to the coast of Hispaniola
near 20N70W. Strong S winds are along the front mainly north
of 29N, according to the latest scatterometer pass. Scattered
moderate convection is present north of 24N east of the front
to 55W. A reinforcing cold front enters the area near 31N62W
and extends to 26N69W. Gentle to moderate W winds prevail west
of both fronts to the Florida coast.
Winds and seas associated with the cold front extending from
31N57W to Haiti will diminish today as the front moves eastward
and weakens. Southerly winds will increase east of northern
Florida on Fri as a cold front approaches the area. The front
will stall from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral on Sat, then lift
northward Sat night as a low pressure system develops northeast
of Jacksonville, Florida. As a result, fresh to strong S to
SW winds are expected over the north waters on Sun.
In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, a strong
1034 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate
to fresh anticyclonic flow. Scattered moderate convection
associated with an upper level trough is present in the eastern
Atlantic from 09N to 20N east of 30W.
$$
Mahoney/AR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 6 17:20:00 2021
280
AXNT20 KNHC 061005
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
Gale force NE to E winds will diminish some later this morning,
but pulse again tonight and again Sun night as a tight pressure
gradient between lower pressure over South America and high
pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds.
Please, refer to the following website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uR_A4bOh72uTIrSEDz7gSVpUGU0S33esXT_U-nJGKy4_tm1EpMVcumNfalqpj2WS3mH-ON6I$
, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
02N30W and 01N38W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to
07N between 10W and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S
of 07N between 10W and 24W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A slow-moving cold front extends from just north of Tampa Bay,
Florida to 27N90W to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection is located N of the front, to the E of 90W. A surface
trough over the western Bay of Campeche is not producing any
sensible weather at this time. Fresh NE winds are occurring N of
the cold front, otherwise gentle to moderate winds prevail over
the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft.
The cold front will stall later this morning, retreat northward
as a warm front this afternoon, then be reinforced by a secondary
cold front surge in tonight. By late Sun, this combined front will
stall from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. This front will then lift northward as a warm front Mon
and move N of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow
areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early
next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale
conditions N of Colombia. High pressure to the north is keeping
dry conditions in place with generally fresh to strong trades
prevailing. Sea range from 5 to 8 ft.
High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into
the middle of next mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force
nightly into early next week off the coast of Colombia.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The stationary front that was located from near 32N50W to the
Dominican Republic has devolved into a surface trough. This trough
will weaken and dissipate today. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the trough N of 30N. High pressure dominates the
Atlantic on either side of the front, with a 1030 mb center
located SW of the Azores and a 1026 high near 33N55W. Winds
throughout the basin are mainly moderate to fresh out of the NE to
E. Decaying swell S of 20N is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft, with
seas of 6 to 8 ft to the north.
A cold front has emerged off the SE U.S. coast from 32N77W to near
Daytona Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is located
within 60 nm of either side of this boundary. Ahead of the front,
W of 65W and
This cold front will stall through tonight in the far NW waters,
then be replaced by a slightly stronger cold front Sun. Ahead of
this second front, strong S winds will redevelop N of 28N. This
front will move SE then stall from near Bermuda to around Fort
Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then gradually lift N.N of
38N, fresh to strong S winds are occurring.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 7 00:46:00 2021
387
AXNT20 KNHC 061731
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force winds from overnight are
currently strong to near-gale force north of Colombia. Seas
range 11 to 13 ft. Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse again
tonight and Sun night as a tight pressure gradient between lower
pressure over South America and high pressure building toward
the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will continue to
range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the following website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!p-mkM7L-BEo3nrSiGbhpEYOLrmUcQKryiERdJG8AomK48IuMSViJfVmY84P17DGknLMqqLZf$
, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone/Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from
04N18W to 02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from
01N-06N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ from 02N-04N between 42W-46W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 mb low is noted off the Middle Texas coast near 28N97W. A
stationary front extends south of the low to 27N97W. A warm
front extends east of the low across the northern Gulf to
29N87W. The boundary stalls from 29N87W to the north-central
Florida coast near 28N83W. Showers are mostly across the
northeast Gulf N of 28N between 82W-90W. Isolated showers are
noted in the western Gulf off the Texas coast. Fog is also being
reported across the north-central and northwestern portions of
the basin south of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are mostly
in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the western
basin. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the
north-central Gulf.
The front will retreat northward as a warm front this afternoon,
ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf tonight. By
late Sun, the cold front will stall from near Fort Myers,
Florida, to the eastern
Bay of Campeche, then lift northward as a warm front Mon and
move north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow
areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early
next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale
conditions N of Colombia.
High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place
with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the
central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with
upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 9-13 ft in the
south-central portions of the basin.
High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean
into the middle of next mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force
nightly into early next week off the coast of Colombia.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is pressing southward across the western Atlantic
from 31N76W to the central Florida coast near 29N81W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and south of
the front from 28N-31N between 75W-81W. An area of isolated
thunderstorms are clustered off the South Florida coast. Gentle
to moderate N-NE winds behind the front with light to gentle
southerly winds south of the front. In the central Atlantic, the
remnants of a stationary front extends N-S as a trough from
30N55W to 20N59W. Showers are in the vicinity of this trough.
High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the basin
anchored by a 1032 mb high near 33N34W. Seas range 3-6 ft in the
western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic.
A weak cold front from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida will move little today before stalling and lifting north
of the area this evening, ahead of a slightly stronger cold front
moving off the coast of northeast Florida Sun. Expect strong SW
winds ahead of the second front in the waters north of 28N early
Sun. This second front will move southeast then stall from near
Bermuda to around Fort Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then
gradually lift north of the region through mid week.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 7 16:36:00 2021
155
AXNT20 KNHC 070959
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse
nightly at least through Mon night as a tight pressure gradient
between lower pressure over South America and high pressure
building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will
continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast product in the following website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pNMmsFNFZ5oCuNOVh6bs9QuMXbcPfJpSwkqYLKaUIBzng-MkvFF1DsLokxEbD35Bamg_eetU$
, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 07N12W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
monsoon trough from 03N-11N and east of 16W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 00N-04N between
21W-50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 mb low pressure center is offshore Florida near 29N83W. A
cold front extends SW from this low to 22N97W. Scattered
thunderstorms line the frontal boundary to the east of 86W. A weak
surface trough has formed off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh N winds are
ongoing, highest off the Texas coast. To the east of the front,
gentle to moderate are occurring in the SW Gulf, with moderate
southerly winds over the eastern Gulf. Near the coast of Florida,
fog is occurring to the SE of the cold front. Seas range 5-6 ft
in the north-central Gulf and 2-3 ft in the southern Gulf.
In the forecast, the low will track NE, inland and away from the
area today, while the cold front will move SE and stall this
evening from near Fort Myers, Florida, to S of Tampico, Mexico.
The front will then lift northward as a warm front Mon and move
north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas
of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early this
week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features Section above for details on pulsing
gale conditions N of Colombia.
High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place
with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the
central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with
upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 9-11 ft in the
south-central portions of the basin.
High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean
through the middle of this week. Winds will pulse to gale force
tonight and Mon night off the coast of Colombia.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A previously stalled front over the far NW waters has lifted N as
a warm front out of the region. S of the front, moderate to fresh
S winds have developed N of 27N and W of 75W. To the E, a
weakening surface trough is noted from 32N54W to 23N60W. High
pressure ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by
a 1029 mb high near 32N37W. Seas range 4-6 ft in the western
Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic, with moderate to
fresh trade winds dominating S of 25N.
A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida today. Ahead
of the front, strong SW winds will impact areas N of 28N. By late
Mon, the front will stall from around 30N65W to around Fort
Lauderdale, Florida. The front will then lift north as a warm
front and out of the region Tue.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Feb 8 03:14:00 2021
297
AXNT20 KNHC 072315
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamaniam low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia tonight and Mon night. Near gale-force winds are also
expected Tue night. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product in the following website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!ogo-E9_I184XSmzVPGNK-nHKaxdJpbNR8slee6KPKHqCySXPhF0WCF5DN3HCBg3ERTi_-i1P$
, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N-02N between 17W-31W. Similar
convection is within about 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-
45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front from extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to near
to Poza Rica, Mexico. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms
is associated with the front E of 87W. The tail end of this band
reaches the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula where some tstms are
flaring up. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds follow the
front forecast to lift northward as a warm front Mon and move
north of the Gulf waters by Mon night. Moist southerly flow may
allow areas of fog to develop across the northwest and north
central Gulf through mid week.
The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and
reach from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Veracruz,
Mexico by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected
in the wake of the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.
The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh
to strong trade winds across most of the east and central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are noted between eastern Cuba and
Jamaica while mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail over
the NW Caribbean. Seas of 8 ft or greater can be found in the
central Caribbean. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean through the middle of this week.
Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will move across
the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N77W across South Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
just ahead of the front affecting parts of South Florida and the
NW Bahamas. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong S-SW winds
ahead of the front and N of 27N. Strong to near gale force winds
are also noted along 30N E of the front to about 75W. This system
will stall from 30N65W to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida by Mon.
The front will then lift north as a warm front and out of the SW
N Atlantic by Tue. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall between
NE Florida and Bermuda by Wed, and will lift north of the area
Thu and Fri.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a 1028 mb high pressure located near 32N39W. Patches
of low level moisture are noted mainly N of 15N while transverse
high clouds, associated with a tropical jet stream, cover the
waters between northern South America and the west coast of
Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 9 00:42:00 2021
910
AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near gale-force winds are
also expected Wed night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product in the following website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t6LqjgMFoO4SPoCBzyhAfUdCg9oDcK7eisal5NCxRwFZDAHTy7XDZvtwal0J1myJlGEI6FAb$
, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N43W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
the Monsoon trough from 00N-06N between 05W-19W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ
between 23W-43W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front exists from near Key West, Florida, to
26N91W where it transitions to a warm front and extends to the
middle Texas coast. Convection previously associated with this
front has generally diminished, although a few showers persist
In the Central Gulf. North of the frontal boundary, moderate to
locally fresh NE-E winds prevail, with gentle E-SE winds south
of the front.
The stationary front is forecast to lift N as a warm front today
and be north of the area late tonight. Moist southerly flow may
allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf
through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the
Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the western Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.
The latest scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong trades
dominating the entire basin with the exception of the northwest
Caribbean where flow becomes moderate to fresh. Seas of 8 to
11 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are
observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions
prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean.
High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean into Fri night. Near gale force winds are expected off
the coast of Colombia nightly through the forecast period,
except tonight where gale conditions are forecast.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N63W to the NW Bahamas, then stalls
to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A band of thunderstorms
stretches along the cold frontal portion of the boundary, with
scattered showers along the front from the Bahamas to the Florida
coast. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SW winds are
occurring, with fresh NE winds behind the front. High pressure of
1027 mb centered near 30N36W dominates much of the rest of the
basin, causing gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. To the south,
moderate to fresh trades prevail, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft.
The entire front will gradually stall today, then lift north as a
warm front tonight, and out of the region Tue. The next cold
front may not move off the SE U.S. coast until Thu or Fri.
$$
MORA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Feb 10 02:33:00 2021
847
AXNT20 KNHC 092220
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will continue to support pulsing gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night, with near gale conditions
prevailing through Fri. Seas will build to 11-12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product at the following website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rVK72Fsk2SgC6D0hYjKWasTPkxWeEGujfwV13qeYy9VJTjM26sopl3LxYVa-2yWml8N8uSWL$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to along the
equator and to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from the equator-10N between 17W-31W
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from the northern Florida Peninsula to
1018 mb low pressure located just offshore of the Florida
Panhandle near 30N86.5W, continuing west-southwest to near the
central Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60-120 nm southeast-south of the front and low to the
east of 87W. Reduced visibilities in dense fog are noted across
the coastal waters. A surface trough is analyzed in the western
Gulf from 26N93W to 18N95W. No significant precipitation is
associated with this feature. Gentle to moderate SE-S flow
prevails south of the front, with gentle NE-E winds north of the
front. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft in the central
Gulf in the lee of the trough where the strongest winds are noted.
The low and front will weaken and dissipate through early Wed.
Surface ridging will develop on Wed providing moderate return flow
through Thu. This may allow areas of dense fog to persist across
the northern Gulf. A cold front will move off the Texas coast by
late Thu and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche Fri evening, where it will stall through Sat evening.
Strong to near gale force winds will affect the far western Gulf
early Fri into Sun.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.
Fresh to strong trades continue to dominate the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas of 8-12
ft can be found in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the western Caribbean. Dry conditions
prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
trade wind flow across the northern Caribbean.
High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean and
portions of the SW Caribbean through Sun night. Moderate to fresh
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong at
night Thu and Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
East of 65W, a cold front extends from north of the area to 32N40W
to 29N49W continuing as stationary to near 28N64W. Scattered
showers are possible on either side of the front. Moderate to
fresh S-SW winds are possible north of 29N and east of the front,
with moderate to fresh N-NE winds north of the front. Seas are
8-12 ft in NW swell north of the front. To the east, 1021 mb high
pressure is near 27N28W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
noted south of 20N with gentle to moderate flow from 20N-29N. Seas
are 5-8 ft across the waters south of the front.
West of 65W, a warm front extends from 30N71W to 1017 mb low
pressure near Calabash, North Carolina, then continuing south-
southwest as a stationary front to 1020 mb low pressure east of
Amelia Island, Florida near 31N80W, to across the northern Florida
Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring north of 29N and west of 68W. Patchy dense fog will be
possible in the coastal waters from near Melbourne, Florida
northward through early Wed. Mainly moderate return flow prevails
north of 23N and west of 65W, with moderate to fresh trades south
of 23N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft west of 65W in residual northerly
swell, except to 8 ft near 30N65W and 3 ft or less west of the
Bahamas.
The front and attendant low pressure areas will move N out of the
area this evening. The front will move back into the region as a
cold front early on Wed, and exit the SW N Atlantic waters Wed
night. Strong high pressure northeast of the area will support
fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as
well as in the approaches of the Windward Passage into the
weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 11 01:51:00 2021
675
AXNT20 KNHC 101813
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours
tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 11ft near Colombia. Gale
force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and
Thu night, with near gale conditions prevailing into Sun night.
Please, refer to the following website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!qJBlUIx2IqxY0MfYbfQ2M7fg6mIYkD8-MiCX0vjai-bTu6PwjYJCF-e_pR98tOV1YikiNDrw$
, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N
between 36W-43W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front stretches from near Apalachicola, Florida
along the northern Gulf coast to 29N94W. Convection previously
associated with this weakening boundary has dissipated. Fog
prevails about 60 nm off the coast of the U.S. throughout the
northern Gulf waters and west of the Florida peninsula due to
very moist air over cooler waters. Winds are generally gentle to
moderate out of the east, with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
The stationary front is expected to lift N today while
dissipating. Fog will continue to be possible into the late
week. A cold front will move off the coast Thu, then reach from
the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Fri, where it
will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds
will affect the far western Gulf early Fri through Sat night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.
Scatterometer data from this morning revealed fresh to strong
trades continuing to dominate the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Clusters of isolated showers
and thunderstorms are embedded in the trade wind flow. Seas
range from 3 to 6 ft across the basin, with swell heights
increasing near the waters adjacent to Colombia.
High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean into the start of next week. Gale force winds will
pulse off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night, with near
gale conditions prevailing into Sun night. Moderate to fresh
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh to strong
at night Wed through Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
As of 1500 UTC: The previous stationary front extending from the
northeast Florida coast near St. Augustine to 32N72W is now
dissipating. Winds in the western Atlantic are gentle to
moderate. Two high pressure centers, a 1025 mb high centered
near 31N51W and a 1022 mb high centered near 27N24W, allow for
gentle to moderate trades to prevail across most of the basin. A
cold front exists between the highs, extending from 32N30W to
27N43W where it becomes stationary and continues west to 27N54W.
Winds are fresh from the south ahead of the front and north of
28N. Seas behind the boundary range from 9-18 ft, reaching 21 ft
north of the area.
The stationary front extending in the western Atlantic will lift
N of the area as a warm front tonight. Dense fog is forecast to
prevail over NE Florida adjacent waters near the frontal
boundary through noon today. Return flow will establish across
the region on Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW offshore waters Sat evening. Surface ridge extending
across the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds
at night between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos, and the
approaches of the Windward Passage through Sat.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Feb 12 18:20:00 2021
369
AXNT20 KNHC 121033
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 07N12W to
06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 00N32W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N-03N between
19W-35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front is moving southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico,
and currently extends from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico
Mexico. Behind the front, fresh to strong northerly winds and
widespread showers or thunderstorms are occurring. South and east
of the front, weather conditions are mostly fair and winds are
light to moderate out of the southeast or south.
The cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward to
extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche
tonight, and from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf
through tonight.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scatterometer data from the past few hours revealed near-gale
force winds near the northern coast of Colombia, and fresh to
strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean, where seas
are in the 7-11 ft range. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to
fresh. Dry air in the mid-and upper-levels exists across much of
the region, which is supporting generally fair weather. However,
as is typical, there are a few patches of low-level clouds and
embedded showers moving within the trade wind flow.
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh
to strong SE winds are possible in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sat morning. Large north swell will affect the tropical N Atlantic
waters through the middle of next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Generally quiet weather prevails across the western Atlantic.
Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N35W and
extends to 28N50W. A narrow line of showers is occurring along
the front. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the rest of
the basin, causing fair weather and moderate to fresh trades.
Swell generated from a strong low pressure system in the north-
central Atlantic has spread south to areas E of 50W and N of 15N,
causing seas of 10 to 14 ft. To the south and west of this area
of swell, seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range.
A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The
front will stall in the NW forecast waters on Sun then lift north
of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region will support
fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Sun
night. A weak cold front will move off Florida on Tue.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 13 05:07:00 2021
112
AXNT20 KNHC 122323
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the ITCZ from 00N-03N between 23W-33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A slow moving cold front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb
low centered at 24N94W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A
stationary front extends from the low northeastward to the
Florida panhandle near 30N86W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring within 90 nmi south of the
stationary front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
20N-25N west of 94W. Ship WTSZ reported near gale NNW winds in
the SW Gulf at 22 UTC.
Strong northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf through
tonight. The slow-moving cold front will reach from the Florida
Big Bend low pres near 24N92W to the Bay of Campeche early Sat.
The front will stall, then gradually weaken through Sun night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
central Gulf of Mexico near and east of the front through
tonight. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast of
Texas early Mon, and reach from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan
Peninsula early Tue. Low pres may develop along this front early
Mon in the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds are possible in
the western Gulf behind the front to the west of the low on Mon.
Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Southeasterly return flow
will increase over the western Gulf Tue night ahead of another
cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast Wed.
On a side note, the GFS and ECWMF models indicate strong
westerly winds E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The 1022 mb Bermuda High north of the area is promoting fresh to
strong E winds over S central Caribbean. Ship C6CX3 reported
strong E winds just north of Venezuela at 23 UTC. No significant
deep convection is occurring, though scattered showers are
present in the SE Caribbean as well as near Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Wed
night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat morning, then will increase to strong again
mid-week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface ridging dominated the Atlantic between the 1022 mb
Bermuda High centered near 28N63W and the 1028 mb Azores High
centered near 28N27W. A weak cold front extends briefly into our
waters between 32N32N to 29N42W, with no significant winds.
Scattered moderate convection is noted between 30-32N between
47W-50W and between 30-32N west of 78W.
A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The
front will then stall off the Georgia and N Florida coast on Sun
then lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the
region will support fresh to locally strong winds north of
Hispaniola through Sun night, then again Tue through Wed. Fresh
to strong SW winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and early Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
Florida late Tue. This front will stall from 31N77W to Cape
Canaveral Wed before lifting northward.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical
N Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the
middle of next week.
$$
Landsea
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 13 18:23:00 2021
622
AXNT20 KNHC 131035 RRA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to
03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N32W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the deep tropics
from 01.5N to 03.5N between 22W and 47W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from 30N85W in the Florida panhandle
to a 1008 mb low near 25N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of the
frontal boundary. Isolated showers are observed elsewhere east
of the front.
The front over the Gulf of Mexico will stall and weaken through
Sun night. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast
of Texas early Mon, and reach from the Big Bend of Florida to
the Yucatan Peninsula by early Tue. Low pres may develop along
this front early Mon in the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds
are likely in the western Gulf behind the front and west of the
low on Mon. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Southeasterly
return flow will increase over the western Gulf Tue night ahead
of another cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast Wed.
On a side note, the GFS and ECWMF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate high pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to
locally strong easterly winds over south-central Caribbean. An
area of moderate showers is located in the SE Caribbean south of
14N between 60W and 67W. No significant deep convection is
occurring elswhere.
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed
night. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras this morning. Large north swell will continue to affect
the tropical N Atlantic waters through the middle of next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weakening surface ridge prevails across the Atlantic between
40W and 80W. A weak cold front extends into the forecast waters
between 32N29N and 28N41W, with no significant winds. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 29N to 32N west of 78W.
A weak cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast tonight will
stall and lift north of the area through Sun night. High
pressure over the region will support fresh to occasionally
strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh to strong S
winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night and Tue
ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida late Tue.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of next week.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 14 02:12:00 2021
717
AXNT20 KNHC 132303
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas late Sun night.
This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night through Mon to
the west of the low pressure and behind the front. Winds will
reach near 40 kt by Mon within 120 nm of the Texas coast and
coast of Mexico, with seas reaching near 17 ft off Tampico by Mon
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on
Tue. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oPxq6D8ycpoae2Ek7Jp2U4naqHcfipMwkCDvpc_L7gJOND0xTEAuwLSpbEzMm6WdukfSD5eN$
for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N1820W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N20W to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
60 nm either side of the axis west of 25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.
A stationary front extends from Panama City, Florida to 1010 mb low
pressure near 26N90W to the far southwest Gulf near 19N95W. A
recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds
over the northwest Gulf, where seas are estimated to be 6 to 8
ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
evident elsewhere west of the front, and gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted east of the front. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are evident within 180 nm east
of the frontal boundary, primarily off the coast of Yucatan, and
over the northeast Gulf.
This front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force
northerly winds are expected in the western Gulf late Sun night
through Monday to the west of the low pressure and behind the
front. A light wintry mix of precipitation could reach the
coastline of Texas and western Louisiana late Sun night into Mon.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Tue. The next
cold front will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from
the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong
to near gale force winds are likely to precede and follow this
front across the basin, with gale force winds possible off
Veracruz Thu.
On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Recent buoy and ship observations along with earlier
scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with
fresh to strong trade winds south Hispaniola and off northeast
Colombia. Moderate to fresh SE winds were evident over the
northwest Caribbean. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the
eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest
Caribbean. Grand Cayman radar shows a few showers moving to the
N-NW into the Isle of Youth and western Cuba. A line of
thunderstorms off the coast of Yucatan is moving eastward toward
the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Thu. By the middle of next week, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Wed night. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of
Honduras Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front moves through
the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will continue to affect the
tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles,
through the middle of next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 65W, a stationary front extends from 32N78W to near
Jacksonville, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are noted south
of the front, moving in a line from near Fort Pierce, Florida to
32N75W. A surface ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N through the
northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off the coast
of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to increase
to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to
fresh E winds are also evident south of 22N, to the south of the
ridge. Seas in open waters are mostly 4 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun
night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh
to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon night
and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off Florida
Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W to Vero
Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed night.
Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the Bahamas and
east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through the Gulf of
Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W Atlantic.
Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N,
centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 27N32W and 1025 mb high
pressure near 26N52W, with a weak front in between the two high
pressure areas. Fresh trades and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted south
of 20N. Fresh NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell are
noted north of 20N east of 35W, and gentle to moderate winds and
5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere over North Atlantic waters south
of 32N.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of next week.
$$
Christensen
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 14 16:47:00 2021
318
AXNT20 KNHC 141023
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas on Sun night. The
front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by early
Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are
expected in the northwestern Gulf by early Monday to the west of
the low pressure and behind the front. Seas will increase to 15 ft
with strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region by Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tbqmH9BIInxmECynKrO2o0I3nOIzfF_SdEjbPbXBAMNHoNHu9j9EbYqgHjD6Gp_zyyhBQ4Af$
for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N20W to 02N35W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm on either side of the axis west of 30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.
A stationary front enters the Gulf through the Apalachee bay
near 30N84W and extends SW to 23N92W. SE of the front, a 1010 mb
surface low is centered near 26N88W, with trough extending from
28N83W to the low to 24N89W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
winds north of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere.
The stationary front will weaken through tonight. A strong cold
front with associated low pressure will move off the coast of
Texas tonight, with gale force northerly winds expected over the
northwestern Gulf on Monday behind the front. The next cold front
will enter the western Gulf Wed night, and reach from the Florida
Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. Strong to near gale
force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across the
basin, with gale-force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.
On a side note, the GFS and ECMWF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over
northern Mexico through early next week. These winds could reach
gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough
and high terrain in that region.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the eastern and western parts of the basin, with
fresh to strong trades south of Hispaniola to Colombia and
western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the
eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the northwest
Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is allowing for dry
conditions to prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving showers
embedded in the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of next week. By that time, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Wed night/early Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf
of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold front
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. Large north swell will
continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of
the Lesser Antilles, through the middle of next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 70W, a stationary front extends from 32N77W to 29N81W.
Scattered showers are noted south of the front moving off the
Florida coast, north of 29N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds off
the coast of northeast Florida south of the front are starting to
increase to moderate to fresh with seas building to 7 ft. To the
east, a 1025 mb surface high is centered near 32N53W and broad
ridging dominates across most of the Atlantic basin. Moderate to
fresh E winds are evident south of 22N, to the south of the ridge.
Seas in open waters are mostly 5-10 ft.
For the forecast, the front will lift north of the area Sun
night. High pressure over the region will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Wed. Fresh
to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
Florida Tue. The front will become stationary Wed from 31N74W
to Vero Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas and east of Florida Thu as a cold front moves E through
the Gulf of Mexico, and the pressure gradient tightens in the W
Atlantic.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of the week.
$$
ERA
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Feb 15 04:36:00 2021
876
AXNT20 KNHC 142311
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will form off the coast of southern Texas tonight.
The front will reach from Tampa Bay Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
are expected in the northwestern and west-central Gulf late
tonight through Monday afternoon to the west of the low pressure
and behind the front. Seas will increase to 17 ft Mon over the
west central Gulf near the coast of Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region by early Tue. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vn3GNrRLmHw13IPmgpZEbuII3BjCkKfW9fJ9LD_ah9gtevDW3b4swTvHVnPZ0RHsoJIBv7jF$
for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W to 02N35W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted 02N to 04N between 27W and 31W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section for details.
A stationary front reaches from Cedar Key, Florida to 1011 mb low
pressure near 29N85W, to the central Gulf near 25N90W. A sharp
surface trough reaching from off the central coast of Texas to
near 20N93W. Buoy and platform data are showing winds over the
far northwest Gulf starting to increase as a low pressure area
forms. Seas are building over the northwest Gulf as winds
increase, and wave heights are likely reaching 5 to 7 ft
currently. Gentle to moderate winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
observed elsewhere. A few showers may be ongoing over the
southeast Gulf in a fairly broken line from off Fort Myers,
Florida to near Cancun, Mexico.
A cold front will form tonight and extend southward from the low
pressure starting to form over the northwest Gulf. By Mon
afternoon, the low pressure will be south of Mobile, AL, and the
cold front will extend from there to south of Veracruz Mexico.
The front will reach from Sarasota Florida to Cancun Mexico by
early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale force northerly winds
are expected in the northwestern and west-central Gulf late
tonight through Monday afternoon to the west of the low pressure
and behind the front. A wintry mix of precipitation is likely
along the coastlines of Texas and Louisiana tonight and Mon
morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the region by early
Tue. The next cold front will enter the western Gulf late Wed,
then exit east of the basin by Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale
force winds are likely to precede and follow this front across
the basin, with gale force winds possible off Veracruz Thu.
On a side note, strong westerly winds are observed east of the
Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. This pattern may
persist through the early part of the week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with
mainly moderate winds in the western portion of the basin. Fresh
to strong winds are likely still occurring south of Hispaniola to
Colombia and western Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft
over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft in the
northwest Caribbean. A few thunderstorms are evident over the
far western Yucatan Channel, near Cancun. Elsewhere, high
pressure north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to
prevail, aside from scattered fast-moving showers embedded in
the trade wind flow in the central Caribbean.
The high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the middle of this week. By that time, winds off
Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night, with gales
possible Tue night and Wed night. SE winds will increase in the
Gulf of Honduras on Wed night/early Thu also as a strong cold
front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is
expected to enter the NW Caribbean Fri, with strong N winds behind
the front. Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical
N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, through
the middle of this week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 65W, a cluster of thunderstorms is active along a stationary
front off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida. No significant
weather is noted elsewhere. A ridge extends from 1025 mb high
pressure near 28N55W eastward into northeast Florida. This
pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate SE winds mostly north
of 22N, and moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft in open waters.
For the forecast, high pressure over the region will support
fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night.
Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida Mon
night and Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off Florida
Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from 31N74W to
West Palm Beach Florida before lifting north and dissipating Wed
night. Winds will increase from N of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas and east of Florida early Thu as a cold front moves E
through the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will move E of
Florida early Fri, and extend from 31N71W to central Cuba Fri
evening. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front.
Elsewhere, east of the 1025 mb high pressure near 28N55W, a cold
front reaches from near Madeira to 25N45W. Mostly gentle to
moderate winds persist north of 20N, with moderate to fresh
trades prevalent south of 20N, mainly south of the high pressure
west of 50W. Large NW swell in excess of 8 ft dominates mainly
east of 55W, with highest seas over the discussion area possibly
reaching 14 ft near 32N30W.
Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of the week.
$$
Christensen
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 16 00:04:00 2021
939
AXNT20 KNHC 151728
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds have been occurring
this morning and early afternoon to the west of a 1008 mb low
pressure offshore southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, and behind
a cold front offshore of lower Texas and northeast Mexico,
including offshore of Tampico. Pilots Station East at Southwest
Pass, Louisiana (28.9N 89.4W) measured winds of 53 kt gusting to
62 kt at an elevation of 20m (67 ft) above sea-level at 1524 UTC.
An oil platform KMIS, located just E of the Mouth of the
Mississippi River near 29.3N 88.8W, recently measured sustained
winds of 46 kt and a gust of 55 kt at an elevation of 85m
(279 ft) above sea level at 1635 UTC. A late-morning partial ASCAT
pass shows near-gale winds covering most of the western Gulf,
with some areas of gale force off Tampico. Seas up to 17 ft are
currently occurring offshore of Tampico, and these seas will
persist through the afternoon hours. NOAA buoy 42055 at 22.1N
93.9W recently measured significant wave heights of 16 ft at 1650
UTC and NNW winds of 29 kt gusting to 37 kt. Winds will diminish
below gale force by late afternoon or early evening today. Seas
will subside in the western Gulf by early Tue.
Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient is developing
over the south-central Caribbean that will persist through at
least mid-week. With this, gale force winds are expected to pulse
at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia tonight through
Wed night.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!thqUOyStWam3Pk3ivilYDNQX5ROIwTml5UaPa3e-0M-5cQQk1MVKqnOqOcC9b6GrvhiqtwG3$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean off the coast of
Guinea near 09N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
02S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N-07N between 07W-21W, from 01N-04N between 25W-36W,
and from 02S-02N between 39W-48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 mb low is to the south of southeastern Louisiana. A cold
front extends from the low to Veracruz Mexico. Gale force winds
are currently occurring west of the low and cold front. See the
Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A
weak 1013 mb low is located just offshore Tampa and the Florida
Big Bend. An east-west oriented front connects the two low
pressures in the Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen north of 26.5N between Pensacola and southeast
Louisiana. Additional isolated showers and storms are seen south
of the 1013 mb low, to the west of Tampa. Freezing rain and light
snow have recently been reported along the coast of Louisiana at
Baton Rouge and Patterson.
For the forecast, any snow/frozen precipitation that is occurring
over the Gulf of Mexico or along the coast of Louisiana or
Mississippi should end by early afternoon today. The gale force
winds over the Gulf of Mexico will diminish by late afternoon as
the 1008 mb low lifts north of the area, with the trailing cold
front extending from the western Florida panhandle to 25N89W to
the northwest Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front will weaken as it
reaches the far southeastern Gulf Tue, where it is expected to
become stationary, before lifting back north as a warm front Tue
night and Wed. Another low pressure system will track E-NE across
the NW Gulf on Wed and Wed night dragging a strong cold front
across the western Gulf. This cold front is expected to reach
from Apalachicola Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu, and
exit the Gulf Fri. Gale conditions are possible behind this front
off Veracruz on Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly winds
are possible ahead of this front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Gale force winds are forecast to occur at night within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia tonight through Wed night. See the Special
Features section for details.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen on satellite imagery to
the west of Jamaica, near the Cayman Islands, and extending to
the south coast of western Cuba. Elsewhere, only typical isolated
trade wind showers are seen due to relatively dry air. Recent
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds across
most of the central and eastern parts of the basin, with moderate
to locally fresh winds in the western portion of the basin. Seas
are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft over the eastern and central
Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft in the northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Thu. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale
force at night through Wed. Southeast winds will increase in the
Gulf of Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move
through the NW Caribbean Fri followed by strong northerly winds.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen between 60-120 nm
to the SE of the cold front, mainly N of 27.5N and E of 79.5W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds prevailing over
most of the west Atlantic, except for fresh to locally strong
winds to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A pair of 1026
mb highs are located near 29N61W and 28N55W, respectively.
Farther E, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N24W to
26N41W. Scattered moderate showers are seen along and N of the
front. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the tropical
Atlantic from 03N-22N between 35W-61W. Gentle winds are generally
from 24N-31N, where the subtropical ridge is. Large north swell
will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the
east of the Lesser Antilles, through Thu before subsiding Thu
night through Fri night. Currently, seas are 9 to 11 ft from the
Tropical N Atlantic waters northward into the east-central
Atlantic.
For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu
night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop east of
northern Florida tonight through Tue ahead of a cold front that
will move east of Florida on Tue. The front will become
stationary Tue night from near 31N74W to West Palm Beach Florida,
then lift northward Wed and dissipate Wed night. Scattered
tstorms, some possibly strong with gusty winds along a squall
line, are expected ahead of the front tonight. Winds will
increase over the western Atlantic, including the waters between
the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, beginning on Thu as a
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move
east of Florida early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the
central Bahamas to central Cuba late Fri. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow this front.
$$
Hagen
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 10 02:42:00 2021
166
AXNT20 KNHC 092335
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A new cold front will be moving off the Texas coast Sun night. As
the front moves across the basin, gale-force northerly winds are
expected behind the front S of 23N, and within 150 nm of the
coast of Mexico beginning early Mon. These conditions will begin
to diminish by Mon evening. Seas across this area will build to
10-15 ft Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!ojhWKP4mkCrsqIwS-gmYlZcspcQAvcXTKizeYw-AyMpaRAkE9tXBSl5E3wUV6bNc4LEvZvEZ$
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N20W to 03.5N34W to 04.5N47W to 04N52W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240
nm north of the boundaries.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the western Gulf.
A surface ridge extends SSE across the basin from a 1030 mb high
over Oklahoma. The ridge has weakened slightly today as a cold
front in the NW Caribbean has drifted SE. Moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds prevail across the eastern Gulf, with NE to
E winds across the west half. The ridge will slide east tonight
and Sun, with weakening winds across the east half of the Gulf Sun
and strong southerly return flow developing west of 92W, in
advance of the next cold front.
The next cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday night
will bring strong NW winds across the western and central Gulf of
Mexico on Monday. The front will extend from the central Gulf
coast to the south-central Bay of Campeche on Mon, then northern
Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Tue, then weaken considerably and
exit the basin late Wed.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spreading high clouds
across all but southeast portions of the Caribbean. A stationary
front extends across the western Caribbean from eastern Cuba near
20N78W to the NE coast of Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm on either side of the front. To the south, the
proximity of the monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection south of 12N between 74W-83W. Morning scatterometer
data depicted moderate winds across the basin, with locally fresh
winds over the south central portion north of the Colombian
coast, and fresh NE winds immediately behind the stalled front.
The front will dissipate through Sun. Fresh trade winds will
prevail across the basin this weekend, with nightly pulses of
strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. Strong trade winds
are expected in the central and eastern Caribbean Mon and Tue,
with nightly winds near gale-force north of Colombia Mon through
Wed. The next cold front will approach the NW Caribbean on Tue
night into Wed and stall near the Yucatan Passage. This front
could linger across the region through Thu.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A western Atlantic cold front passes through 32N65W to the SE
Bahamas area near 23N73W to eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along and east of the front mainly north of
25N. Strong W to NW winds prevail behind the front to the north of
27N, where seas are 9-14 ft. Strong SW winds are found along and
ahead of the front, north of 27N to 58W, where seas are 8-11 ft.
To the east, a surface trough extends from 32N43W to 28N54W.
A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure centered near 36N26W. Fresh to
strong trade winds south of the ridge dominate the tropical
Atlantic south of 17N to near 57W.
The west Atlantic front will extend from 31N59W to northern
Hispaniola tonight, then from 30N60W to north of Hispaniola on Sun
as the tail-end of the front dissipates. Strong winds and large
seas are expected north of 26N on both sides of the front through
tonight. Another cold front is expected to move east of the
Florida coast on Tue.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 10 17:36:00 2021
988
AXNT20 KNHC 101136
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong winds to winds frequently
gusting to gale force are expected tonight over portions of the
NW Gulf of Mexico in association with developing low pressure and
its associated cold front. As the front moves across the basin,
gale force north winds are expected behind the front south of 24N
and west of 95W beginning early Mon. The gale conditions will
translate from offshore Tampico Mon morning to offshore Veracruz
Mon afternoon. These gale force winds will begin to diminish by
Mon evening. Wave heights over this area will build to 10-13 ft
Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tYQjq9chcdfRz2MYgD5CS5BPk8WgwIoaWLBUsAiQtJZtY7af1s-H9fZRyfTpuCxNMMlfMTRL$
for more details.
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
strong western Atlantic high that will build southeastward over
the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America will
result in strong to gale force northeast to east winds along and
to within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia Mon night into early
Tue. Wave heights with these winds will be in the range of 9-14
ft. The high pressure will weaken during Tue as it shifts east-
southeastward across the central Atlantic allowing for these gale
force winds to diminish to strong speeds. Wave heights will
slightly subside by late Tue.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N14W to 06N21W, where over scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
03N30W to 02N40W and to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between
31W-36W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-30W and
along and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-24W. Similar
activity is south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ within 30 nm of
a line from 06N11W to 04N19W to 03N24W and to 03N29W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. See
the Special Features section above for details.
Strong high pressure and associated dry and stable conditions
are present over the eastern and central sections of the Gulf.
Meanwhile, areas of rain along with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are moving east-northeast over the NW Gulf
and over the northern section of the far western Gulf as upper-
level divergence east of a shortwave trough begins to infiltrate
those areas of the Gulf. East to southeast winds are increasing
over the far western part of the NW Gulf, and will continue to do
so throughout the day, with wave heights building to possibly 10
ft. Fresh east to southeast winds are over the remainder of
the western Gulf, while gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere.
The strong high pressure over the area will shift eastward and
weaken today in response to the next cold front that will approach
the NW Gulf. This front along with developing low pressure will
move to along the Texas coast this afternoon. The front will
reach from southwestern Louisiana to low pressure near 28N95W 1014
mb tonight. The low will quickly track northeastward and reach to
just south of the western Florida panhandle on Mon afternoon and
to near Apalachicola, Florida by late Mon night, with the trailing
cold front to 25N87W and to inland the Yucatan Peninsula. The low
will move over northeastern Florida by Tue afternoon, with the
cold front extending southwestward to the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula before exiting the Gulf Tue night. Strong winds reaching
frequent gusts to gale force are expected over some parts of the
NW Gulf Sun night. Gale force winds are possible south of 24N and
west of 95W to along the coast of Mexico Mon through Mon night.
Expect for areas of rain along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Gulf through tonight.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to 19N76W, then
begins to dissipate to across Jamaica and to 17N81W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are seen along and east of the front to
near 72W, including the southern part of the Windward Passage.
At the same time, increasing clusters of moderate to isolated
strong convection is confined to the southwestern Caribbean. This
activity is being aided by a short-wave trough that is embedded
in strong westerly flow aloft over that area of the sea along with
the additional ingredient of the eastern segment of the Pacific
monsoon trough that extends into northwestern Colombia. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean between
65W-71W.
An overnight ASCAT pass highlighted fresh north-northeast winds
from 15N to 19N between 81W-86W. Fresh trades prevail across the
central Caribbean south and east of the front, with strong winds
off the coast of Colombia. Moderate northeast to east winds are
over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh northeast to east trades over
the central Caribbean will increase to strong speeds over much of
the central Caribbean this afternoon and continue through late Wed
night, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Thu night.
Trades will reach gale force speeds along and near the coast of
Colombia Mon night. See the Special Features section above for
details. A weakening cold front is expected to move into the
northwest Caribbean on Tue, then become stationary and dissipate
from central Cuba to the northwest Caribbean by Wed evening.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N58W to 24N68W and to the Windward
Passage area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted north of 29N and east of the front to 53W, while isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the front from
25N to 29N. Similar activity is south of 22N east of the front to
near 65W. An overnight ASCAT pass indicated fresh to strong south
to southwest winds north of 29N and east of the front to near 50W
and fresh to strong winds north of 29N west of the front to 68W.
Related wave heights are in the range of 9-12 ft.
Strong high pressure is present to the east of this front anchored
by a 1030 mb high center that is located at 33N28W. Overnight
ASCAT data indicates an extensive area of fresh to strong
northeast to east trades that covers the Atlantic waters south of
a line from 25N35W to 20N45W to 15N61W. Wave heights generated by
these persistent trades over this extensive fetch area of the
Atlantic are in the range of 8-11 ft.
As for the forecast: The cold front will move east of the area
this evening. Strong winds and large seas north of 29N west of the
front to 75W will shift east of the area this afternoon. Another
cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tue.
It will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 32N67W to 26N72W
and to central Cuba Wed afternoon, then move east of the area by
early Thu. Yet another cold front will move across the NW part of
the area on Thu.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jan 12 03:44:00 2021
829
AXNT20 KNHC 112338
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the Gulf
of Mexico is producing gale force winds over the SW Gulf. The
most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these
winds, affecting mainly the waters S of 22N W of 95W, including
the Veracruz area. Seas with this gale event are currently in the
10-14 ft range over the SW Gulf. Winds will diminish below gale
force this evening, with seas subsiding some. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are noted elsewhere in the wake of the front that
extends from a 1016 mb low pressure near 29N87W to the eastern
Bay of Campeche.
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low
will support gale force winds overnight tonight into Tuesday
morning, and repeat again Tue night into early Wed morning at
about the same times. Wave heights are forecast to build to 12-14
ft in the gale force wind area. These winds and seas will
diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts
east.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vgbA2GQ1IQYYA-nTnOaWZfOJTUFqxckjXyejaeteBtGYBQkghMxKb4qgv-ydKSlXTtwpraTq$
for more details on both gale warnings.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast
of Sierra Leone at 07N12W and continues to 04N20W to 05N25W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 05N35W and to the coast of
Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N-06N between 08W-16W, and from 04N-07N between 28W-37W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Gale force winds are observed over the SW Gulf in the wake of a
cold front moving across the Gulf waters. Please, see the Special
Features section for more details. As of 18Z, a low pressure of
1016 mb is centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near
29N87W. The aforementioned cold front extends from the low center
to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The low pressure will move into
the central Florida Panhandle tonight while the cold front will
slowly move into the far southeast Gulf through mid week, and
will dissipate over the Straits of Florida through Thu. High
pressure of 1033 mb centered over Texas follows the front. The
associated ridge dominates the western half of the basin. Abundant
cloudiness is noted on latest visible imagery over the Gulf waters,
with cold air stratocumulus clouds behind the front. Scattered
showers are along the frontal boundary.
A coastal trough over the western Gulf will maintain strong NW
winds between the trough and the coast of Mexico Tue and Wed,
while high pressure building across the northern Gulf will allow
winds and seas to diminish elsewhere. Looking ahead, the next
cold front will reach the NW Gulf on Fri, producing fresh to
strong winds and building seas. The front is forecast to exit the
Gulf on Sat.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.
Elsewhere, the most recent satellite-derived wind data provided
observations of fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted in the
lee of eastern Cuba to about 18N. High pressure N of the area
combined with the Colombian low supports these winds, that are
forecast to diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens
and shifts east.
Scattered moderate convection is seen over the SW Caribbean and
near the coast of Nicaragua, particularly from 10N-18N between
80W-83W. Similar convection can also be found over the NW
Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
helping to induce this convective activity.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, Las Bahamas and the
State of Florida. A cold front extends from 31N47W to 23N62W,
where it becomes stationary to just north of the eastern tip of
Cuba near 20N74W. A band of mainly low clouds with embedded
showers is associated with the front, forecast to dissipate
through tonight. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure located
NE of the Azores. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted based on
latest scatterometer data N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to about
to 24N and E of 35W to the coast of west Africa. Similar wind
speeds are also observed N of the ITCZ to about 12N between 35W
and 46W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range within this area of winds,
forecast to persist on Tue.
A weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by
Tue morning, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
early Wed. The front will stall an start to dissipate Thu from
31N65W to the southern Bahamas, ahead of a reinforcing front
moving across the waters north of 27N that will move east of the
area through Fri. Winds and seas will increase north of the
Bahamas late Fri ahead of another cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast Sat.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jan 14 01:59:00 2021
562
AXNT20 KNHC 131706
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 23W and 34W.
Scattered showers are also noted in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front, extending from a weak cold front
moving through the western Atlantic, reaches the Bahamas
near 26N77W to the western coast of Cuba near 23N84W.
A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from
19N92W to 2N95W. Scattered showers are noted across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Channel north to
the Florida Panhandle and east of 90W. ASCAT indicated fresh
to strong north to northwest winds west of the trough and
moderate to fresh northeast winds east of 94W.
A surface trough across the SW Gulf will maintain strong
to near gale force NW winds near the coast of Mexico
today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early
Fri, and extend from the Florida panhandle to southern
Mexico near Veracruz Fri evening. Reinforcing cold air
will increase winds behind the front in the northern Gulf
Fri night and Sat.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The surface pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the comparatively lower surface
pressure in Colombia and Panama is supporting moderate
to fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near
the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from this
morning shows 20 to 25 kt winds in this area.
High pressure centered south of Bermuda will maintain
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean
today, before winds and seas gradually diminish Thu
and Fri as high pressure shifts eastward. These
conditions are expected to persist through the weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb low
pressure near 35N60W to the Bahamas near 24N77W, where
it becomes stationary. The stationary front continues
to the western coast of Cuba near 23N84W. Scattered
showers are observed and behind the frontal boundary
from 27N to 31N between the coast of Florida and 70W.
An additional area of scattered showers is noted from
27N to 32N and between 55W and 65W, moving east.
A stationary front is analyzed across much of the
subtropical Atlantic from 31N38W to 23N65W. Isolated
showers are noted along the frontal boundary. A ridge
of high pressure is northeast of the stationary front,
and a 1033 mb high is centered near 35N16W. Broad
anticyclonic surface wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
across 06N-23N between 17W to the Lesser Antilles near
59W. An area of fresh to strong is also noted to the
northeast of the Canary Islands from 16N-22N between 16W-21W.
The weak cold front in the western Atlantic across the
northern Bahamas to the northern coast of Cuba will stall
and dissipate this afternoon through tonight. A secondary
cold front will push east of the area Fri. SW winds will
increase north of the Bahamas Fri night ahead of a strong
cold front, expected to move east of Florida on Sat.
The front will reach from 31N73W across the Bahamas
to central Cuba Sat night, and from 27N65W to the
Windward Passage on Sun.
$$
MTorres/Mahoney
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 6 03:02:00 2021
953
AXNT20 KNHC 052233
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N61W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S51W. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm on either
sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf this evening, as
a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak
pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate,
which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area.
No significant convection is evident from radar or satellite data.
A low pressure system is expected develop over the NW Gulf
tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat
evening. High pressure building behind the front will support
strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late
Tue.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but
no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry
air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while light to
gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds noted within
90 nm north of the Colombia coast. Scattered showers are also
possible over the eastern Caribbean Sea near a weak surface
trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of
Colombia.
The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean
through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A
cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night
through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras
Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
over the western Caribbean.
Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through 31N58W to 24N68W and then becomes
stationary to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along
and ahead of the front N of 23N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front
with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds
ahead of it.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of strong high pressure centered near the Azores. The
associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and
the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper
level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to
western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.
The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba
early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front, then shift
from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing
low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to
Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to
near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the
region through early next week. High pressure will build north of
27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue
night.
$$
ERA/JPC
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 6 18:25:00 2021
877
AXNT20 KNHC 061159
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09N13.5W
to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 90 of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 40W and 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf, as a weak
surface ridge persists across the region. The weak pressure
gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate, which is
keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area. A cold
front extends from a 1015 mb low south of Louisiana and continues
along southwest along the Texas coast into Mexico.
Developing low pressure system across the NW Gulf will deepen
and move E-SE across the Gulf through this evening. High pressure
building behind the front will support strong east winds across
the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weakening stationary front from eastern Cuba to the central
Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate today. Fresh to occasionally
strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun.
Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night
and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest
Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from
Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas
will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean.
Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 25N65W to eastern Cuba and will
drift N and weaken today. Winds north of the front will shift
easterly today, and increase north of 27N late. A developing low
pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda Sat
night through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale force
winds. The low will drag a cold front across the region through
early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon,
supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.
$$
TORRES/AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Mar 11 18:51:00 2021
406
AXNT20 KNHC 112200
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 12 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Locally heavy Rainfall over Hispaniola:
A stationary front extends to the northern portions of
Hispaniola. There are currently some showers noted over NW
Hispaniola near the tail-end of the front with most convective
activity north of the island. Abundant low level moisture
associated with the front will continue to be transported across
much of northern and interior portions of Hispaniola before the
front begins to drift N tonight through Fri. Scattered to
numerous showers embedded in the strong NE winds associated with
the front could impact these areas this evening. Locally heavy
rain and strong gusty winds are expected with some of these
showers and will maintain the potential for flash flooding and
river flooding, as well as landslides across higher elevations.
Flood warnings and watches have been announced for several
provinces, by the Weather Bureau of the Dominican Republic.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 02S43W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm N and
90 nm S of the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds prevail across the
Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the NE Gulf,
and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters.
Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift slowly
eastward and support fresh to strong E winds over the southeast
Gulf and the Florida Straits into Fri. Southeast return flow
across the western Gulf will gradually expand across the entire
Gulf through the weekend, becoming strong over the northwest Gulf
Sat night. These winds diminish into early next week, as the
next cold front stalls near the Texas coast Sun into Mon, before
lifting north Tue.
CARIBBEAN SEA
See the Special Features section for more information concerning
the heavy rainfall over Hispaniola.
High pressure is centered near 33N72W. This area of high pressure
is supporting fresh to strong winds across the Windward passage
as well as the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted
off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds over the
remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range
over the western half of the Caribbean and 4-6 ft over the
eastern half.
Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to
support fresh to strong winds across the northwest and south-
central Caribbean. This will diminish slightly by Sat, but pulses
of fresh to strong winds will persist through the Windward
Passage, south of Hispaniola, and off Colombia into early next
week. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward
and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater through Fri
night in mixed NW swell and E wind waves.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from low pres near 34N44W to 23N61W, then
stationary to just north of Hispaniola. High pressure is centered
north of the area near 33N72W. Fresh to strong winds prevail
within 300 nm N of the front, where seas are in the 8-12 ft
range. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the
front, with seas of 5-8 ft over the open waters. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are elsewhere across the
discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 65W, The stationary front is expected
to drift northward and meander through tonight before dissipating
early Fri. Strong high pressure north of the front will support
fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell
south of 28N through Fri evening. Another cold front will move
southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida
Sat night through Sun, sinking southward to along roughly 25N Mon
night and Tue.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 13 09:58:00 2021
125
AXNT20 KNHC 131025 RRA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends along the coast of Africa from 05N00W
to 05N10W, then offshore to 05N17W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N26W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted south of 05N east of 13W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the ITCZ between 24W and 30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across
the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the NE Gulf,
and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
The ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift
eastward and weaken through tonight. Southeast return flow over
the western Gulf will slowly expand across the rest of the basin
this weekend, becoming fresh to strong in the NW Gulf tonight.
Winds will diminish into early next week, as a cold front stalls
near the coast of Texas Sun through Mon night.
CARIBBEAN SEA
A ridge of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic.
Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Windward Passage as well
as just off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds
prevail across the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the western
half of the Caribbean, except to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia.
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the eastern Caribbean.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as a
high pressure ridge north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses
of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage
and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong NE
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night through
Wed night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A ridge of high pressure is across the west-central Atlantic. A
cold front extends from 32N37W to 24N50W. A surface trough is
analyzed north-northeast of the Virgin Islands.
Scatterometer data within the past 12 hours showed strong NE
winds centered near 23N62W, in association with the surface
trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are evident elsewhere from
21N to 24N between 61W and 72W. Seas across this area of higher
winds are estimated to be 9 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail north of 28N across the central and western Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 20N. Seas are
in the 7-9 ft range over the open waters south of 28N and west
of 55W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range north of 28N and west of
the front. East of the front and north of 20N, seas are in the 5
to 8 ft range.
Winds and seas will diminish west of 60W through Sun as the high
pressure ridge in the west-central Atlantic weakens. A surface
trough north of Puerto Rico will drift eastward during the next
couple of days. A cold front will move southward between Bermuda
and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing
cold front will move south of 30N on Mon.
$$
Mundell
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From
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All on Sat Mar 13 19:00:00 2021
492
AXNT20 KNHC 132200
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic gale warning...A cold front associated with deepening
low pressure over the Atlantic waters will move south of 30N on
Mon. A large area of gale force winds will extends well southward
of the low pressure area. These gale force winds are expected to
reach along 31N between 50W and 65W in association with this
front on Mon.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 03N44W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from
01S-07N between 02W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N- 04N between 20W-30W and from 03N-08N between 42W-51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 mb high is over the northeast Gulf. Surface ridging
extends westward across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds
are over the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center, where
seas are in the 1-2 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are over
the SE Gulf, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh SE
return flow is over the western Gulf, with seas of 4-6 ft. Mid
and upper- level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin,
leading to subsidence and relatively dry air.
Southeast return flow over the western Gulf will slowly expand
across the rest of the basin the remainder of the weekend,
becoming fresh to locally strong in the NW and west- central Gulf
tonight into Sun. A cold front will stall near the coast of
Texas on Sun and move back inland by Sun night. Southerly return
flow will increase again across the Gulf region Tue night and Wed
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the basin by Wed.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A ridge of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic.
Fresh to locally strong winds are noted just off the coast of
Colombia and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds
prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean west of 70W. Gentle trade
winds prevail east of 70W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the
western half of the Caribbean, and 4 to 5 ft over the eastern
Caribbean. A mid-level ridge prevails over the western portion of
the basin, with subsidence and relatively dry air. Some
cloudiness and rain showers are noted from the southern Windward
Islands extending westward to the ABC Islands.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as a
high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses of fresh
to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A ridge of high pressure is across the west-central Atlantic from
a 1021 mb high near 29N51W to a 1025 mb high pressure near 29N77W.
A surface trough extends NE of Puerto Rico from 25N60W to
18.5N64.5W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are located within 180 nm
to the north and northwest of the trough axis. Gentle
anticyclonic winds are seen north of 25.5N along the ridge axis.
Moderate NE winds cover the area of the Bahamas. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms extend NE from the northern portion
of the aforementioned surface trough from 22N- 26N between 53W-
62W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from 32N33W
to 26.5N40W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the discussion
waters east of 60W. Seas are 5-7 ft across most of the Atlantic,
except 7-8 ft to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
For the forecast west of 65W, winds and seas will diminish
across the SW N Atlantic through Sun as a high pressure in the
west-central Atlantic weakens. A surface trough located north of
Puerto Rico will drift eastward during the next couple days. A
cold front will move southward between Bermuda and northern
Florida tonight and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing cold front will
move south of 30N on Mon. Gale force winds are expected along 31N
between 50W and 65W in association with this front on Mon.
$$
AL
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From
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All on Sun Mar 14 09:21:00 2021
569
AXNT20 KNHC 140529
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic gale warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W winds
in the S semicircle are anticipated to reach south of our 31N
border between 50W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning. By
late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds
will have diminished to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to
peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon
night through Tue night.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N48W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
between 00N and 05N east of 25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf, near 29N95W. As seen in
buoy and scatterometer data, there are E trades in the Florida
Straits and SE winds in the W Gulf that are a fresh breeze.
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas peak near 5 ft in the
W Gulf. No significant shower activity is present as subsident,
upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf.
Southeast return flow over the western Gulf will expand across
the rest of the basin on Sun, becoming fresh to locally strong in
the western Gulf. A cold front will stall near the coast of Texas
on Sun and move back inland by Sun night. Southerly return flow
will increase again across the Gulf region Tue night and Wed ahead
of the next cold front pushing off the Texas coast by Wed. The
front is expected to move across the Gulf on Thu and exit Thu
night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak ridge of high pressure is centered north of the Caribbean
along 29N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is helping to promote fresh
to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and fresh NE winds in
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Peak
seas are only 5-6 ft in the W Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in the SE Caribbean this evening, with no
significant convection elsewhere.
Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the region
through Sun as a high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens.
Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. By Tue,
fresh to strong winds will build across the central Caribbean.
Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
at night through Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas
northern border.
A weak ridge of high pressure extends from a 1024 mb high
centered offshore of NE Florida to a 1020 mb high near 28N50W. The
resulting NE to E trades south of the ridge are moderate across
the basin. A surface trough just north of Puerto Rico is analyzed
from 20N66W to 24N60W. Winds just north of the trough are NE up to
a fresh breeze. Farther northeast, another surface trough extends
from 32N32W to 24N40W. A cold front is drapped along our N border
from 32N65W to 32N80W, though peak winds in our AOR are weaker
than a fresh breeze. Peak seas are 4-6 ft in association with the
trough north of Puerto Rico and with the trough near 35W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 12N
west of 50W. Scattered showers are also present from 23N-27N
between 55-60W in association with the surface trough. No other
significant convection is occurring elewhere.
Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the SW N Atlantic
through Sun as a high pressure in the west-central Atlantic
weakens. A surface trough located north of Puerto Rico will drift
eastward during the next couple days. A cold front will move
southward between Bermuda and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A
stronger, reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon.
Another cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on
Thu night.
$$
Landsea
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From
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All on Fri Mar 19 16:57:00 2021
565
AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N36W. No
significant convection is occurring at this time.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from southwest Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate N-NE winds follow behind the
front, becoming moderate to fresh in the western Gulf. Gentle
southerly winds are ahead of the front in the Florida Straits.
Seas range from 3-6 ft, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas
are up to 8 ft.
The cold front will move southeast of the basin by early this
evening. Another front will move into the northeast Gulf early
Sat, and will weaken as it moves across the eastern and central
Gulf through late Sun. High pressure will build over the
northeast Gulf early next week, supporting increased E to SE
winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front may enter the far northwest Gulf late Tue.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from eastern Honduras SE across the
southwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
south-central Caribbean, reaching near gale force off the coast
of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are over the north-central
Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 9-11
ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 6-7 ft over the north-
central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western
Caribbean.
A cold front currently moving through the southeast Gulf will
move through the Yucatan Channel tonight before stalling and
dissipating over the far northwest Gulf through late Sat. Large
northerly swell east of the Leeward Islands will subside through
tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from
32N73W to Miami, FL. ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong W winds
behind the front, with strong S winds within 180 nm ahead of the
front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 80 nm east
of the front. Seas over this area are in the 7-12 ft range. A
stationary front extends from 32N33W to the Leeward Islands
where the tail end of the front is dissipating. Fresh to strong
NE winds are behind the front to 50W, and north of 27N.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with decaying seas
in the 6-9 ft range.
The cold front will stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by early
Sat. A second front will move into the waters off northeast
Florida early Sat, and move into the Straits of Florida by early
Sun as the first front dissipates. The second front will move
farther east and dissipate through Mon as low pressure
developing along the front lifts north of the area.
$$
Mora
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From
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All on Tue Mar 23 15:33:00 2021
540
AXNT20 KNHC 231710
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
07N12W to 01N17W to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from 00N23W to
02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the
monsoon
trough and east of 20W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends across the eastern Gulf waters, while a
weak low and surface trough are over South Florida. To the north,
the tail end of a warm front extends from 30N89W to 29N87W. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 30N94W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the trough over the eastern half of the
trough. To the southwest, a 1004 mb surface low is centered near
22N97W. The pressure gradient generated across the basin is
supporting fresh to strong winds over much of the waters west of
89W, while gentle to moderate winds are noted east of 89W. Seas are
in the 5-7 ft range west of 90W, and 2-4 ft east of 90W.
The surface ridge will continue supporting increasing SE winds
and building seas over the western and central Gulf through midweek.
A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Thu, then stall
and weaken over the central Gulf Fri into this weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak surface ridge prevails north of the area. The resultant
weak gradient is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the south
central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are
in the 4-6 ft range over much of the Caribbean waters east of 80W.
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the W Caribbean.
High pressure will build over the western Atlantic
through late week. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the
south-central Caribbean, with gale-force winds likely pulsing
each night near the coast of Colombia starting on Thu night into
the weekend. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the
NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through
Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near
27N79W. A surface trough extends for the low to a 1012 mb low
centered near 33N76W. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted off the coast of NE Florida, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere west of 60W. NE swell continues off the
coast of NE Florida, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Elsewhere,
seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters west of 60W. East
of 60W, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft
range north of 28N between 45-55W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will build
westward across the northern waters through midweek and persist
into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the
southern waters later this week as the ridge builds. NE swell will
subside off the coast of NE Florida today. No other significant
swell is expected to propagate into the area through the remainder
of the week.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Mar 28 17:11:00 2021
216
AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
hours. These conditions are expected to continue through at least
the middle of the week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the
late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is entering the extreme
northwestern Gulf of Mexico as of this morning. As the front
moves SE across the area, NW winds reaching gale- force are
expected to develop S of 24N west of the front this afternoon and
continue through Monday morning. Seas will range between 8-12 ft
with the strongest winds.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N14W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W to 02S37W.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S
to 06N E of 27W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.
A cold front extends from 21N94W to 27N97W, moving southeastward.
Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are occurring NW of
this front. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms
are noted within 90 n mi of the front. A surface ridge extends
from the Atlantic and across the eastern two-thirds of the basin
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the area.
Patchy dense fog is still noted over portions of the extreme
western Gulf to the south of the cold front.
Fresh to strong winds will occur near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula into the early morning hours due to local
effects. The cold front will continue to progress SW and winds
will reach minimal gale force this afternoon through tonight near
the Tampico area, with seas building up to 12 ft. The front will
extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on Mon
afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward Mon
night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move off
the Texas coast by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected
behind the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.
Latest scatterometer data depicts near-gale-force winds across
the south-central Caribbean within 90 nm of the Colombia coast.
Fresh to strong trades are noted across much of the central
Caribbean, the approach to the WindWard Passage, and southwest of
Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the
basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean,
except 9-13 ft offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the
5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the
region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind
flow.
High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force
near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere south of 18N and E of 80W. Fresh to strong
winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon,
and in the Windward Passage through Tue night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin inside the
discussion area, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 30N37W.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 24N W of 25W with
seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds
are N of 24N and W of 25W with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Over
the extreme eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is centered near the
Canary Islands at 30N18W. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 n mi of the low. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds are noted N
of 25N and E of 25W.
A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast tonight, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon,
stall and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then lift
northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of
the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage
mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast
to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu.
$$
Latto
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Mar 29 13:24:00 2021
087
AXNT20 KNHC 291744
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu
night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early
morning hours with the gale force winds.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02S43W. Scattered
Showers and thunderstorms are noted within 300 nm on either
sides of the boundaries, with moderate convection concentrated
from the Equator to 05N between 20W-30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from 27N82W to 25N93W, then transitions to
a stationary front to 18N94W. Scattered showers prevailed along
the front. Strong NW near-gale force winds are noted over the
western Gulf from the Bay of Campeche west of 94W and from
25N-27N and west of 90W. A surface trough is noted ahead of the
front in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 23N90W. Light
to gentle variable winds are noted southeast of the front across
the remainder of the area.
The cold front moving across the northern Gulf, will continue
to move southeast today. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and
building seas behind the front will begin to dissipate this
afternoon. The front will extend from central Florida to central
Bay of Campeche this afternoon, then lift as a warm front
tonight. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed
evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front with
near gale-force winds near Tampico and Veracruz.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly trades
across central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere. Fresh winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras
and across the approach to the WindWard Passage. Seas are in the
8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest offshore of
northern Colombia, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather
conditions prevail across the region, with quick-moving showers
embedded in the trade wind flow.
High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage through Wed night. Winds will increase
fresh to strong as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Passage
Thu night into Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is entering the western Atlantic, extending from
31N73W to 28N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along and in the vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1025 mb high centered near 26N43W. Another cold front enters the
Forecast area from 31N38W to 31N58W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail S of 25N with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle
to locally moderate NE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to
6 ft range. A 1011 mb low is centered over the Canary Islands
near 29N17W.
The cold front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida this
afternoon, stall and lift northward tonight. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds
near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night.
Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night
into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh
to strong winds with building seas are expected in the wake of the
front.
$$
Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Mar 30 15:52:00 2021
721
AXNT20 KNHC 301757
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the Texas coast by early Wed evening and will move quickly
across the entire basin by noon Thu. Behind the front, strong to
near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the
northern and western Gulf, with frequent gusts to gale force
offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle Wed night
into Thu morning. Gale force winds will develop near Tampico,
Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience seas of 10-12 ft
on Thursday, behind the front.
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient prevails
across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north
of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This
gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds
offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the
overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected
to continue through Wed night. Seas will peak around 13 ft
during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force
winds.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
11N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N39W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted within 150 nm
on either side of the boundaries.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A warm front extends across the northern Gulf Coast from the
Florida Big Bend to New Orleans to Houston. Scattered showers
and tstorms are near the boundary over northern Florida between
Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Most of the precipitation has
exited the Gulf waters, except for an isolated shower or two
near the coast of the Florida Panhandle. The latest ASCAT data
pass shows mainly moderate SE winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the NE
Gulf.
For the forecast, see the Special Features section above
regarding strong to gale force winds Wed night and Thu behind a
strong cold front. Winds across the Gulf will then diminish by
the weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. See
above.
Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate showers and tstorms
along the eastern border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, extending
for 60 nm into the SW Caribbean. No significant areas of
precipitation are seen elsewhere. The latest ASCAT data pass
shows strong trades across the central Caribbean between
67W-79W, south of 18N, with fresh trades elsewhere from the
Lesser Antilles to the coast of Nicaragua. Near-gale force winds
are seen within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, south of 13N
and east of 77.5W. Moderate trades are in the NW Caribbean,
except for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 8-11
ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, 5-8 ft in the E
Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the
extreme NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure across the Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the 5-day forecast period, with
winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Wed night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across
the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected across the Windward Passage through Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N59W to 30N70W. The
front transitions to a warm front from 30N70W to St. Augustine
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the
warm front. The front will lift north of the area today. 1028 mb
high pressure centered near 30N54W extends surface ridging to
the NW Bahamas. The latest ASCAT data pass shows gentle to
moderate winds prevailing from 25N to the front, between
50W-80W. Fresh trades extend south of 24N to the Greater
Antilles. Seas of 4-8 ft prevail across the W Atlantic.
For the forecast, the high pressure ridge over the western
Atlantic will build along 29N over the next day or so. Moderate
to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to
strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through
Thu night. A cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed
night into Thu. The front will extend from near Bermuda to
western Cuba on Fri, and from 32N61W to central Cuba Sat. Fresh
to strong winds with seas building to 7-10 ft are expected in
the wake of the front.
Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N26W to 26N31W to
24N39W to 24N47W. ASCAT shows fresh to strong winds on both
sides of the front, north of 26N between 24W-38W. Fresh to
strong trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 06N-21N
between 35W-60W. Seas of 12-17 ft in large NW-N swell will
affect waters north of 26N between 23W-38W through Wed morning.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Mar 31 14:12:00 2021
633
AXNT20 KNHC 311738
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A late season and strong cold front
will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon and move quickly
across the entire basin through Thu. Behind the front, strong to
near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the
northern and western Gulf, including frequent gusts to gale force
offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle tonight
through Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico,
Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience wave heights in the
range of 9-13 ft on Thu behind the cold front. This cold front
will also bring a relief of the summer like temperatures in south
Florida this upcoming weekend. Winds will diminish across the region
Fri and Sat.
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient remains over
the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the
Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia. This
gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds offshore
of northern Colombia, pulsing to minimal gale-force at times
during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions
are expected to continue through Thu morning. Wave heights are
forecast to peak around 13 to 14 ft during the period of gale-
force winds.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to
01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
N of the ITCZ axis W of 35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico, near
the coast of Mexico due to strong cold front forecast to move
across the Gulf waters. A Gale Warning is also in effect for
frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal waters from southern
Texas to the western panhandle of Florida where gusty winds of
40-45 kt are expected. Please, see the Special Feature section for
more details.
A weak ridge dominate the Gulf waters producing fresh E-SE winds
in the Straits of Florida based on recent satellite derived winds,
and gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft
across the basin based on altimeter data.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Please, see the Special Feature section for
more details.
A recent scatterometer pass shows a large area of 30 kt winds
near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong winds across the
central Caribbean, including the waters just south of Hispaniola.
An area of NE-E winds of 25 kt is noted near Cabo Beata, Dominican
Republic. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the eastern Caribbean
with gentle to moderate winds over the NW part of the basin.
Currently, seas range from 9-12 ft in the south-central to SW
Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the E Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean.
High pressure across the Atlantic will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri morning,
with winds pulsing to gale-force at night near the coast of
Colombia into early Thu morning. Fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE
winds are possible in the Windward Passage through Thu morning.
Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is seen across
the basin with low cloud streamers in the lee side of the Lesser
Antilles.
A relatively strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
afternoon and move across the NW Caribbean Thu night followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds. Seas are forecast to build to
8-10 ft in the Yucatan Channel by Thu night. The front will reach
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Fri, and from eastern
Cuba to the coast of NE Honduras by Sat morning. Expect fresh to
strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage by
late Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N40W than extends
westward to near 29N50W to 30N62W. A band of mainly low clouds
with possible showers is associated with the front. Another cold
front crosses the Canary Islands and extends SW to near 22N25W
where a shearline continues to 20N45W. A strong 1004 mb low
pressure system is centered to the NW of the Madeira Islands near
35N19W, with fresh to strong winds depicted in scatterometer data
in the south semicircle of the low, north of 29N between 16W and
22W. The low in the eastern Atlantic will shift northeastward and
weaken through Thu.
High pressure will prevail north of 32N through Thu morning. A
cold front will move east of northern Florida early Thu morning,
extend from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba on Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected in the wake of the front.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Apr 1 14:51:00 2021
053
AXNT20 KNHC 011728
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends just
north of Tampa Florida near 28N82W to the coast of E Mexico near
22N97W. Observations from KMIS and KGRY oil platforms this morning
are indicating NE winds up to 40 kt at elevated anemometer
heights in the N central Gulf. Peak sustained winds at the surface
are near gale with frequent gusts to gale force. Buoy 42395 in the
central Gulf is reporting seas of 10 ft. Strong to near-gale
force N to NE winds are expected to continue north of the cold
front today, with frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal
waters of Texas eastward to the panhandle of Florida. Sustained gale-
force NW to N winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico late this
afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Wave heights in the
central Gulf will be up to 12 ft today and tonight before
diminishing on Fri.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 06N15W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N15W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of
04N west of 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
05N between 12W and 18W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning is in effect frequent gusts to gale force in the
coastal waters from southern Texas to the western panhandle of
Florida as well as gale force sustain winds for the western Gulf
of Mexico near Tampico, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section for more details.
Elsewhere south of the cold front, scatterometer data this
morning shows gentle to moderate NE winds prevailing. A weak
surface trough is present in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Seas south of
the cold front are up to 5 ft, highest in the SW Gulf. Scattered
showers are present within 60 nmi of the cold front.
The cold front will move rapidly SE across the remainder of the
Gulf waters through tonight. Strong winds, frequent gusts to gale
force, and building seas are expected behind the front today, with
gale-force winds likely near the coast of Mexico late this
afternoon. Winds will diminish across the region Fri and Sat.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean
between the Bermuda High and a 1006 mb low over northern Colombia
is producing strong to near-gale NE to E trades. Seas are up to
12 ft in the area of strongest winds. A small area of strong E
trades likely is also occurring just south of Hispaniola with seas
to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, NE to E trades are
moderate to fresh with seas 5 to 7 ft. No significant deep
convection is occurring today over the Caribbean though scattered
showers are noted in the NW Caribbean and just south of
Hispaniola.
A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel
tonight, then stall and dissipate across the NW Caribbean through
Sat. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri, with the
highest winds near the Colombia coast. Fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N77W to near Cape Canaveral Florida
near 29N81W. NW winds behind the front are moderate to strong,
while SW winds ahead of the front are fresh to moderate. Seas are
currently 4 to 5 ft behind the front, but building quickly.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 72W
and 78W in association with a pre-frontal trough, which extends
from 31N75W to 24N81W.
The cold front will extend from Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri,
from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from
23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas are expected in association with the cold
front.
Farther east a cold front extends from 32N34W west-southwestward
to 26N60W where it transitions to a stationary front to 31N64W. SW
winds north of 29N ahead of the front are moderate to strong,
while NW veering to NE winds are only fresh to moderate behind the
front. A secondary cold front extends from 32N38W to 30N46W. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft are occurring north of 28N east of 50W mainly in NW
swell. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nmi of these
frontal boundaries. A large extratropical cyclone is expected to
move near our northern border producing strong to near gale E
winds and seas near 15 ft north of 27N east of 50W Fri and Sat
before diminishing Sun.
$$
Landsea
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 2 06:55:00 2021
762
AXNT20 KNHC 020943
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ
axis continues from 06N17W to 00N31W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-03N between 13W-
18W, within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-39W, and from
01N-08N between 39W-53W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A strong late-season cold front is in the process of exiting the
basin, extending from northwest Cuba to just south of the Yucatan
Channel to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the southwest Gulf of
Mexico near 19N96W. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data showed gale
force winds offshore of Mexico south of 24N with fresh to strong
northerly winds elsewhere behind the front, however gale force
winds have diminished a few hours ago. Seas are mainly 7-11 ft
across the basin in the wake of the front, with 4-6 ft seas ahead
of the front in the eastern Bay of Campeche.
The cold front will shift completely southeast of the basin early
today. Fresh to strong winds and large seas behind the front will
diminish across the region later today through Sat. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early
next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean Sea, extending
from western Cuba near 23N82W to just south of the Yucatan
Peninsula to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. An earlier
ASCAT scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong northerly winds
already arriving behind the front, with seas up to 8 ft near the
Yucatan Channel.
A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean
between high pressure east of Bermuda and a 1006 mb low over
northern Colombia is producing strong to near-gale force NE to E
trades in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are up to 9-10 ft in
the area of the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh trades are
noted elsewhere in the Caribbean sea, except light and variable
winds are mainly north of 18N between Haiti and 79W. Seas are 5-7
ft in the north-central and eastern Caribbean with mainly 3-5 ft
seas in the northwest Caribbean ahead of the front. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean waters, but
patches of scattered showers are possible in the southwest and
south-central Caribbean, and deep convection is noted over inland
portions of northern Colombia.
The cold front will move across the northwest Caribbean today,
then stall and dissipate across the northwest Caribbean through
Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in
the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage
through the weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
early next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the
east and central Caribbean.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N73W to 23N81W. A pre-frontal trough
is north of 24N within 30 nm ahead of the cold front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible north of 24N within 60-120
nm ahead of both features. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data
showed fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, along
with 7-9 ft seas. A 1022 mb high pressure center is noted east of
Bermuda near 33N55W with a ridge axis extending southwest to the
southeast Bahamas.
The cold front will extend from Bermuda to central Cuba by this
evening, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sat afternoon, then stall and
weaken from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected in association
with the cold front. High pressure will settle across the region
early next week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast.
Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N32W west-southwestward
to 24N52W where it transitions to a stationary front and extends
northwestward to near 27N59W. Fresh SW winds prevail ahead of the
front, with fresh to strong winds moving south of 30N as a large
extratropical cyclone north of the area moves closer to the area.
Building northerly seas in the 8-11 ft range associated with this
system continue to propagate southward to 26N and east of 51W.
Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nm on either side of
the front. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail south
of 20N along with 7-9 ft seas in old northerly swell, with gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds noted from 22N-25N under a ridge
axis with extends across that area ahead of the cold front. The
large extratropical cyclone is expected to move closer to 32N and
will shift an area of strong to near gale winds and building seas
to 16 ft north of 27N and east of 50W Fri and Sat before
diminishing Sun.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 3 08:09:00 2021
436
AXNT20 KNHC 030915
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near the border
of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N19W to 02S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-07N between 11W-
14W, from 03N-05N between 14W-17W, from 02N-04N between 31W-39W,
and from 01S-04N between 39W-48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley with a
ridge axis extending from the North Carolina Piedmont through the
high to northeast Texas. NE-E flow dominates the eastern half of
the Gulf under the ridging, with E-SE flow across the western half
of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds linger in the southeast Gulf in
the wake of a strong, late-season cold front now well southeast of
the basin, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except south
of 26N and west of 94W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in NE swell
across the southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 3-6 ft range
elsewhere.
Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf
will gradually diminish and subside through early Sun. High
pressure will build in and prevail into the middle of next week.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
night Sun night through early next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are noted north of 16N and
west of 73W. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data indicated fresh to
strong N-NE winds west of the cold front, along with seas in the
5-8 ft range, highest south of the Yucatan Channel.
A surface trough extends across northern Colombia to the
Colombia-Panama border and beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Deep convection is noted across northern and western Colombia
producing frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. Please
refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local
meteorological offices for more details.
Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean
due to a tight pressure gradient between the trough over northern
Colombia and high pressure ridging northeast of the basin.
Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the
basin southeast of the cold front, except variable 5-10 kt winds
across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 4-7
ft range southeast of the cold front, except 3 ft or less across
the approach to the Windward Passage.
The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border later today where it will stall and
gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds
will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of Cuba and across
the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. High
pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through early next week, with the
highest winds near the Colombia coast.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos with a
pre-frontal trough north of 24N within 60-75 nm ahead of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60-90
nm ahead of the trough, with rain possible west of the trough to
90 nm west of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are west
of the front along with 7-11 ft seas in NE swell northeast of the
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate southerly return flow is east of the
cold front outside of any convection.
The cold front will stall later in the weekend over the southeast
waters and across Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and
building seas are expected in association with the cold front.
High pressure will settle across the region early next week with
more tranquil marine conditions forecast.
Over the central and eastern Atlantic, a ridge of high pressure
extends from 32N53W to 26N50W to 22N35W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are within 120 nm on either side of the ridge
axis. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail south of the
ridge axis, along with seas in the 6-8 ft range in old, decaying
northerly swell. East of the ridge axis, a complex, gale-force
low pressure system is located north of the discussion waters.
Several troughs continue to rotate around the system and across
the discussion waters north of 20N and east of 50W. Fresh to
strong winds are occurring north of 27N and east of 48W, with
large seas of 8-15 ft in northerly swell across the same area.
Gale-force winds are forecast to remain north of 32N while the
system lingers through the weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 3 16:10:00 2021
739
AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A large extratropical low pressure system
with a central pressure of 1000 mb is centered north of the
discussion waters near 34N36W. An ASCAT pass from Saturday morning
showed gale force W-NW winds north of 30.5N between 38W-39W.
Strong to near gale force winds are elsewhere north of 27.5N
between 33W-44W. Seas of 14-16 ft are analyzed to be occurring
within the gale force wind area. The gales are forecast to end
for the waters south of 31N very soon, by 03/1800 UTC. However,
fresh to strong W winds and seas of 8-12 ft will continue north of
28N and east of 45W through Sunday.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N24W to 01N46W.
Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-07N
between 13W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-46W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil from
03S-04N between 42W-50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure of 1033 mb is centered over the southern Appalachian
Mountains with a ridge axis extending from western North Carolina
to east Texas. Moderate E flow prevails over the western half of
the Gulf. Strong NE-E winds are found in the SE Gulf and Florida
Straits, in the wake of the strong, late-season cold front that
passed the area Thursday night, that is now well southeast of the
basin. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in NE swell across the
southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 3-5 ft range for the
northwest half of the Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the
southeast Gulf will gradually diminish and subside through early
Sun. High pressure will prevail into the middle of next week.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
night Sun night through early next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N75W to the western
tip of Jamaica. A stationary front continues from the western tip
of Jamaica to NE Honduras near 15.5N84W. A recent ASCAT data pass
from late Saturday morning shows strong to locally near gale
force NE winds behind the front near the Cayman Islands, in the
lee of Cuba and northwest of Jamaica. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
are elsewhere behind the front from the Yucatan Channel to
Honduras. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the NW Caribbean behind
the front. Isolated showers are near the front near the Windward
Passage, Jamaica, and over northern Honduras.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen just offshore near the Panama/Colombia border,
mainly south of 11N between 76W-79W. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate
trades elsewhere. Seas average 4-6 ft across the eastern and
central Caribbean, except up to 7 ft offshore NW Colombia.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Windward
Passage to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border later today where
it will stall and gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh
to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of
Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the
weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through early
next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale
Warning over the north-central Atlantic Ocean.
A cold front extends from 32N62W to 25N68W through the Turks and
Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba near 20N75W, as of 03/1500 UTC. A
pre-frontal surface trough is located about 75 nm ahead of the
front, north of 21N. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms are within 180 nm southeast of the cold front, mainly
north of 21N and east of 71W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong
N-NE winds for about 400-500 nm behind the front from Cuba to 32N,
including the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh
N-NE winds are outside of that area, offshore of central and
northern Florida. Wave heights are 8-12 ft behind the front, and
NE of the Bahamas. A NNW-SSE oriented surface ridge axis extends
through a 1022 mb high pressure near 30N53W to near 23N47W. Light
to gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of this ridge axis.
For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front from 27N65W to the
eastern tip of Cuba will stall Sun evening from 21N65W across
Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are
expected to last through Sun in the wake of the cold front. Strong
winds are expected in and near the Windward Passage through Mon.
High pressure will then settle across the region early next week
with more tranquil marine conditions forecast.
$$
Hagen
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From
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All on Sun Apr 4 08:21:00 2021
332
AXNT20 KNHC 040907
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 12N16W to
06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N39W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-05N
between 14W-29W, and from 03N-05N between 33W-36W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N-02N between 34W- 40W, from
00N-03N between 41W-47W, and from 03N-05N between 44W- 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure is over Georgia with a ridge axis extending westward
to the Texas Panhandle. Fresh to strong NE flow is noted in the
southeast Gulf with moderate to fresh winds in the south-central
Gulf. Moderate NE-E flow prevails elsewhere east of 90W, with
moderate E-SE flow west of 90W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in
the southeast Gulf in fresh NE swell, and mainly 3-5 ft
elsewhere. Isolated showers are possible in the easterly wind
flow.
The fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf
will gradually diminish and subside later this morning. High
pressure will continue to extend across the basin through the
middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula at night through Tue night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from over northern Haiti to south of
the Windward Passage to across Jamaica to near the Honduras-
Nicaragua border. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near
and west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are west of the
front as well as across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas
are in the 5-8 ft range west of the front.
A surface trough extends from northern Colombia to the
Colombia-Panama border beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across portions of
central and northern Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and
the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for
more details.
Fresh to strong winds are noted just offshore of northern Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere east of the stationary front. Seas are mainly in the 4-6
ft range east of the stationary front, locally to 7 ft northwest
of the coast of Colombia. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible in the trade wind flow.
The stationary front is expected to gradually dissipate through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas west of the front
will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the
Windward Passage through the early part of the week. High pressure
in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through Tue night, with the highest winds
near the Colombia coast.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N65W to 20N72W. Scattered
showers are possible near and on either side of the front. Fresh
to strong N-NE winds are noted south of 27N and west of the
front, with moderate to fresh mainly N-NE winds west of the front.
Seas are 8-11 ft in NE swell west of the front to 76W and east of
the Bahamas, and 5-8 ft west of 76W.
A complex low pressure system north of the area extends a trough
from 31N36W to 29N40W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
north of 24N and east of 50W. A small area of fresh to strong
winds remains near the trough, north of 29N between 33W-40W. Seas
associated with this system of 8-12 ft in NE swell covers the
waters north of 22N between 28W-48W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range
elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical Atlantic
waters. A ridge axis extends from 31N51W to 25N50W to 24N28W to
31N19W with light anticyclonic winds under the ridge. Moderate to
locally fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N.
The cold front in the southwest north Atlantic will slowly move
eastward, stalling and gradually dissipating from 22N65W to just
northwest of the Mona Passage. Behind the cold front, fresh to
strong NW to N winds and moderate seas are expected through this
evening. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Windward
Passage through Mon. High pressure will settle across the region
during the early part of the week with more tranquil marine
conditions forecast.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
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All on Sun Apr 4 15:25:00 2021
562
AXNT20 KNHC 041716
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N27W to 01N38W to
01N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N-05N between 10W-35W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 02S-06N between 38W-52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure of 1030 mb centered over Georgia and Alabama
extends broad ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. A recent ASCAT
data pass shows fresh NE-E winds over the SE Gulf, Florida
Straits and Yucatan Channel, with gentle to moderate E flow
elsewhere. Seas are currently 1-3 feet over the northern Gulf
and 2-4 ft over the central Gulf, increasing to a maximum of 6
ft near the Yucatan Channel. NOAA buoy 42003 near 25.9N 85.6W is
reporting 17 kt winds and 3 ft seas. A buoy in the Florida
Straits to the south of Key West is reporting 6 ft seas at 1500
UTC this morning. In the SW Gulf, NOAA buoy 42055 near 22.1N
93.9W has ENE winds 10 kt and 4 ft seas.
For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to extend across the basin through the middle of the
week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night through Tue night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from the north coast of Haiti near
20N72W to 17N77W to the Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W.
Isolated to scattered showers are within 75 nm either side of
the stationary front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong
NE winds to the NW of the front. Within this area, strong to
locally near gale force winds are seen in the Windward Passage
and in the Lee of Cuba. Seas over the NW Caribbean are estimated
to be 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, the ASCAT pass shows moderate
trades in the E Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas are likely 3-5 ft in the eastern
Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean.
For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to gradually
dissipate through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate
seas west of the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and
across the approach to the Windward Passage through the early
part of the week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia
coast.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N53W to 25N61W to the N
coast of Haiti near 20N72W. Isolated to scattered showers are
within 60 nm NW and within 120 nm SE of the front. A recent
ASCAT data pass shows fresh to locally strong N-NE winds south
of 26N and west of the front, with fresh N winds north of 26N
between the front and 70W. Gentle anti-cyclonic flow prevails
off the coast of northern and central Florida, north of 27N and
west of 72W due to a 1030 mb high pressure centered over
Georgia. Seas are 7-10 ft in N swell west of the front to 75W
and east of the Bahamas, and 4-6 ft west of 76W.
The cold front will slowly move eastward, stalling and gradually
dissipating Mon night from 23N60W to just northwest of the Mona
Passage. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and
moderate seas are expected through this evening. Fresh to strong
winds will continue near the Windward Passage through Mon. High
pressure will settle across the western Atlantic during the
early part of the week with more tranquil marine conditions
forecast.
East of 50W: A 1019 mb high is near 23N47W. A surface ridge with
light to gentle winds extends eastward from the high to 23N33W
to 29N20W to a 1020 mb high near 35N18W. North of the ridge, a
large gale force low centered near 36N37W is producing fresh to
strong west winds from 29N-32N between 31W-42W. Seas of 8-10 ft
in N swell cover the waters north of 25N between 26W-42W. These
conditions will migrate slowly E over the next 24 hours as the
low north of the area drifts eastward. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
range elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical
Atlantic waters.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Apr 5 15:29:00 2021
508
AXNT20 KNHC 051800
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 11N15W to
05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N35W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-06N between
06W-20W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 mb high pressure center is located over northern Florida
allowing for gentle to moderate return flow over most of the
Gulf except for the Florida Straits and the entrance to the
Yucatan Channel where winds are fresh. Additionally, a surface
trough stretches from the 22N95W, through the Bay of Campeche,
to southern Mexico. Winds W of the Yucatan Peninsula and E of
the trough are moderate to fresh. Mostly fair weather conditions
prevail across the basin under the influence of the ridge. Seas
are 1-3 ft across the basin.
The high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue
to extend across the basin through the week. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through
Tue night. Fresh return flow can be expected over the western
Gulf through mid week, then diminishing through late week as the
high pressure shifts east ahead of a weak cold front moving
through Texas.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The latest scatterometer pass revealed fresh to strong NE-E
winds over the central and northwestern Caribbean with seas
of 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted within the
Windward Passage and 70 nm off the coast of northeast Colombia.
Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean, with
seas of 3-5 ft. A few training showers are possible between
Jamaica and Honduras in the wake of the recently dissipated
stationary front.
Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will persist
in the lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward
Passage into mid week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean
through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia
coast.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure over northern Florida is allowing for gentle NW
becoming NE winds over the northern Bahamas. A cold front enters
the discussion area near 32N45W stretching southwestward to
23N60W where the front becomes stationary to the northern coast
of Hispanola. Scatterometer data reveals gentle to moderate NW
winds behind the cold front, while behind the stationary front
fresh to strong NE winds are S of 25N. Scattered showers may
still be along and ahead of the front north of 25N. Seas in this
area, N of 20N between 55W-75W are 6-8 ft and 9-12 ft north of
30N.
Fresh NE to E winds will persist south of 22N through tonight.
The cold front will slowly move eastward today. High pressure
will settle across the region through Tue with more tranquil
marine conditions forecast. By midweek, another low pressure
system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area
east of 70W and north of 29N.
Farther east, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails over
the Atlantic east of the cold front. Seas east of 40W and north
of 30N are 10-12 ft, with heights of 5-7 ft elsewhere.
$$
Mora
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From
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All on Tue Apr 6 15:25:00 2021
726
AXNT20 KNHC 061703
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to the coast of Brazil
at 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 02N
between 40W and 45W as well as between 03N and 06N east of 22W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure is located over the SE United States with
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the Gulf and seas
of 2 to 4 ft. Fresh SE winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of
Mexico are accompanied by 5 to 6 ft seas. No significant showers
or deep convection are occurring over the Gulf today.
High pressure over the Bahamas will linger through mid week as a
cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley,
before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula once again tonight.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across
the remainder of the Gulf through the end of the week, except
gentle to moderate in the northeast Gulf.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high just north of
the Bahamas and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong NE
trades north of Colombia and moderate to fresh NE to E trades
elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just north of
Colombia and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. While no significant deep
convection is occurring, scattered showers are present in the
coastal waters of Panama, Honduras, and Belize.
The high north of the basin will continue to support fresh to
strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and off Colombia tonight. High pressure is forecast to
shift east and gradually weaken allowing winds and seas to
diminish across the basin by the middle of the week. This pattern
will support fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by
the end of the week into the weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough from 30N42N to 19N65W splits a ridge extending
from a 1022 mb high just north of the Bahamas to a 1019 mb high at
24N37W. Scattered showers are present within 120 n mi of the
trough north of 21N. With the highs/ridge weak, the NE to E trades
equatorward of the ridge are generally light to fresh, except for
some moderate NE winds over the Mona Passage and Windward Passage.
North of the ridge, there are some fresh to moderate W winds north
of 28N between 55W and 65W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, except
for 8 to 10 ft in the fresh to moderate W winds.
For the region east of 55W, a large extratropical low will
approach our northern border and cause strong to near gale W winds
north of 27N from tonight through at least Sat night. Seas will
reach near 15 ft during this time.
The surface trough will drift southeast across the Tropical N
Atlantic to just northwest of Puerto Rico through tonight. Winds
and seas south of 22N and west of the boundary will diminish and
subside today. By midweek, low pressure system mentioned above could
bring strong winds and building seas to the area east of 70W and
north of 29N. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this
weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S.
$$
Landsea
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Apr 8 16:21:00 2021
235
AXNT20 KNHC 081744
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0740 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N35W to
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 260 nm south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 10W-25W, and from the Equator to
06N between 31W to the coast of Brazil to 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure centered northeast of the central Bahamas extends
westward into the northeast Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh
return flow prevails across the basin, except under the high, and
in the western Gulf where the pressure gradient is slightly
weaker. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf, and 3-5 ft in
the central and western Gulf. AS of 1500 UTC, a cold front is
inching its way from eastern Texas to across the lower Mississippi
Valley with an intense line of showers and strong thunderstorms
ahead of it, currently extending to just inland of the northern
Gulf coastline Pensacola, Florida near 30N86W to 27N91W. Areas of
fog near the coast of southern Texas coastal waters have
diminished.
High pressure will gradually shift eastward as a cold front
slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, then stalls
over the northern Gulf by the weekend. Mainly moderate to fresh
return flow will prevail through the remainder of the week,
increasing to fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead
of the front. The stalled front is expected to linger over the
northern Gulf into early next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad mid to upper level south-southwest flow covers the basin
which is advecting moisture across the region from the tropical
eastern Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the eastern
Pacific Ocean to south of the Gulf of Panama to across northern
Colombia with clusters of scattered to numerous showers and
Strong thunderstorms over central and northern Colombia. This
Convection has frequent lightning with heavy rainfall also
possible.
High pressure is located north of the basin. A fairly weak
pressure pattern prevails across the region with winds locally
to fresh in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, across the
Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of northern
Colombia. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 2-4 ft range in the northwest and eastern Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft in the central Caribbean, locally to 6 ft.
High pressure north of the basin will gradually shift eastward
through early next week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and
building seas will develop by Fri night across the northwest
Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop over
the south-central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola this weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad gale force low pressure system is located north of the
discussion waters and well northeast of Bermuda with associated
fresh to strong winds extending southward to 27N between 47W-68W
as seen in the scatterometer this morning. A cold front wraps
around the low and into the area through 31N44W to 23N62W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible within 60n nm
ahead of the front with higher gusts in any convection. Large
NW-N swell with seas in the 8-15 ft range covers the waters from
roughly north of 26N between 46W-69W, highest seas up to 17 ft
north of 30N indicated by the recent altimeter.
An elongated trough is located east of the front, from 26N41W to
16N64W to the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are ahead of the trough north of 21N and E of
44W, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
extending from near Puerto Rico east-northeast within 300 nm on
either side of the trough and west of 50W.
High pressure is centered in the eastern Atlantic near 25N25W
with a ridge axis extending from near the Canary Islands to just
east to 48W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are south of the
ridge axis, except for fresh to locally strong N-NE winds west of
Africa to across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft
range across the central and eastern Atlantic outside of the
influence of the low pressure system mentioned above.
A trough will linger from the central Atlantic to near Puerto
Rico today. Northerly swell will move through the waters east of
70W through this weekend. High pressure centered near 27N74W
will gradually shift eastward through early next week. Winds and
seas may increase offshore Florida this weekend ahead of a cold
front that will move over the southeastern U.S.
and eventually pass offshore early next week.
$$
MTorres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 10 09:34:00 2021
610
AXNT20 KNHC 101026
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is active, and continues
to erupt. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume spreading
east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly in an area bounded by
12.5N59W to 13N61.5W to 13.5N61.5W to 15N58W back to 12.5N59W,
which includes Barbados. Violent volcanic eruptions may occur
suddenly without any warning. Volcanic ash may be reaching the
ocean surface east-northeast of St. Vincent. Mariners should
exercise caution, and report volcanic ash or floating debris to
the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W to 02N32W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 02N-06N between 07W-21W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds cover most the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft. A large area of thunderstorms across
coastal sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western
panhandle of Florida extends into the near-shore waters of the
northern Gulf, north of 29N between 86W and 92W. These storms are
likely to push offshore later this morning, with strong gusty
winds and frequent lightning possible in thunderstorms.
Fresh southerly winds will prevail across the basin today ahead
of cold front that will move into the NW Gulf later today, then
stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico by
Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the
front are expected in the NE Gulf this weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall
advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.
Recent scatterometer data shows fresh trade winds in the east-
central part of the Caribbean, and mostly gentle winds in the
western Caribbean. Seas are 5-6 ft over most of the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 3-4 ft in the western part of the basin.
Isolated to scattered shower activity is noted across the SW
Caribbean, south of 15N and west of 72W. Numerous showers are
occurring over Costa Rica, including western Panama and parts of
southern Nicaragua.
Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh E winds and moderate seas
are expected across the central Caribbean through Sun.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall
advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.
1019 mb high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas near 28N72W is
supporting mostly tranquil marine conditions across the western
Atlantic and Bahamas, with gentle winds and 3-6 ft seas. Gentle
to moderate trade winds prevail across the tropics in the central
Atlantic. A large occluded gale-force low pressure system north
of the area centered near 38N51W is producing a large area of
strong westerly winds north of 26N between 40W-60W. Seas are 11-16
ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system is affecting
most of the central Atlantic. Two weak surface troughs are
analyzed south of this low pressure system, from 28N43W to 22N58W,
and from 23N44W to 17N54W. Isolated showers embedded in multi-
layer broken to overcast clouds are noted from 21N to 31N between
28W and 42W.
Fresh southerly winds are expected this weekend in the Bahamas
and east of Florida this weekend as a cold front approaches the
western Atlantic. The front will move east of northern Florida on
Mon, extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue, and move east of the
forecast area on Wed.
$$
Mundell
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From
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All on Sat Apr 10 17:25:00 2021
280
AXNT20 KNHC 102204
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is active, and continues
to erupt. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume
spreading east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly in an area
from 12N to 16N between 49W to 62W which includes Barbados.
Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without any warning.
Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east-northeast of
St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report volcanic
ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service by calling
305-229-4424.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from
04N24W to 03N35W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 01N-09N between 11W-25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An outflow boundary from earlier strong thunderstorms is drapped
over the NE Gulf from near Tampa, FL to 25N90W. New strong
convection is developing along this boundary within 120 nm of the
Florida coast. In addition, to the north of the outflow boundary,
numerous moderate convection exists N of 26N and E of 87W. To the
west, a cold front is stretching from the central Louisiana coast
to just S of the Texas-Mexico border. Also, low pressure of 1002
mb has developed near 22N96W. Fresh N wind is occurring behind the
cold front, with fresh S winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle
to moderate mainly SW winds occurring elsewhere. Seas N of 25N and
E of 90W are 5 to 8 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.
Fresh southerly winds are forecast across the most of the basin
tonight ahead of the cold front. The front will stall and weaken
from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico by Sun night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are
expected in the NE Gulf this weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.
Fresh trades are occurring over much of the central Caribbean and
in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
wind prevails. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except slightly higher where
the fresh winds are occurring. Scattered thunderstorms continue
off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean for the
remainder of this weekend, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected across
the central Caribbean through Sun.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.
High-pressure ridging continues over most of the western and far
eastern Atlantic. West of 60W, this is leading to gentle
anticyclonic flow, 3 to 5 ft seas, and mainly tranquil marine
conditions. However, an outflow boundary with gusty winds and
moderate convection is moving off the north Florida coast this
evening. Ahead of this boundary, fresh S winds have developed.
A large occluded gale-force low pressure system north of the
area centered near 37N48W is producing a large area of strong
westerly winds north of 25N between 35W-55W. Seas are 11-16ft in
this area. Northerly swell from this system is affecting most of
the central Atlantic. A weak surface trough is analyzed south of
this low pressure system, from 29N40W to 22N49W. Another surface
trough is noted from 26N38W to 17N51W. Scattered moderate
convection has developed within 120 nm on either side of this
trough.
Fresh southerly winds are expected in the Bahamas and east of
Florida for the remainder of the weekend as a cold front
approaches the western Atlantic. The front will move across
Florida Mon, then extend from 30N60W to 21N75W on Tue, and move
east of the forecast area on Wed. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft in
the vicinity of the front.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 11 17:07:00 2021
365
AXNT20 KNHC 112133
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 12 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is undergoing frequent
eruptions. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume
spreading well to the east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly
in an area from 10N-18N between 40W-62W, which includes Barbados.
Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without warning.
Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east northeast of
St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report
volcanic ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service
by calling 305-229-4424.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends southward from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N22W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 01N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-27W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Low pressure of 1009 mb has formed in the NE Gulf just S of the
Florida Panhandle. A cold front extends SW from this low to just
north of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough resides in the western
Gulf from 25N92W to 21N97W. Another pre-frontal trough,
accompanied by strong to severe thundertorms, stretches from near
Fort Myers, Florida to 27N88W. Between the pre-frontal trough and
cold front, numerous thundertorms, some strong, are ongoing. Very
gusty wind to 45 kt and frequent lightning are hazards through
much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the through, fresh SW
winds prevail. North of the cold front, moderate to fresh mainly N
winds are occurring, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere in the
Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft.
The cold front will move east, then stall out from central
Florida to the Bay of Campeche Mon, and dissipate by Mon night.
An upper- level trough will help generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf waters through this
evening. Some of this activity may contain frequent lightning and
strong gusty winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.
The latest surface analysis depicts a rather weak pressure
gradient across the basin. Fresh trades prevail over most of the
basin, while fresh to strong east-southeast winds in the Gulf of
Honduras as well as the Yucatan Channel. Mainly fair weather
conditions are in place across the basin. Wave heights are in the
3-6 ft range, except for slightly higher wave heights of 5-7 ft in
the central Caribbean area and within the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, fresh southeast winds will continue over the
northwestern Caribbean through the period, while fresh to strong
east to southeast winds continue in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds
will pulse to strong speeds over a small area near the coast of
Colombia during the afternoons and at night through Wed.
Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh east winds will change
little through Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.
A surface trough extends from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach,
Florida. Along and to the northwest of this trough, numerous
strong thunderstorms are occurring. These thunderstorms will bring
a threat of frequent lightning and wind gusts to 50 kts for areas
W of 72W and N of 24N, including the NW Bahamas and off the east
coast of Florida. Ahead of the trough, N of 23N and E of 65W,
fresh SW winds are occurring.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds east of
Florida will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front
that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight. The front
will reach from near 31N75W to east-central Florida early Mon,
from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba
Mon evening and the southeast waters by late Tue. The front will
move east of the forecast waters on Wed as weak high pressure
builds in behind it. Another cold front is expected to cross the
northwest and north- central waters on Tue. Fresh to strong
southwest winds are expected to precede this front. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are
expected to push off the Florida coast through this evening.
Farther east, a large area of fresh to strong west winds
associated with a low pressure system north of our discussion area
continues to affect waters north of 27N between 27W-45W. Seas are
11-17 ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system, with
seas in excess of 8 ft, is affecting most of the central Atlantic
north of 21N between 26W-60W. South of the low, weak surface
trough is analyzed from 28N37W to 18N60W. Another trough is noted
from 28N30W to 17N50W. To the E of 45W, scattered moderate
convection exists along both of these troughs. High pressure
ridging and gentle anticyclonic flow dominates the waters both
west and east of the troughs.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Apr 13 15:34:00 2021
192
AXNT20 KNHC 131717
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
light emissions from its summit. It is possible that ash that was
released earlier may be reaching the surface of the ocean, and
low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are transiting
the waters under the emitted ash advisory should exercise caution.
Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris,
are urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center, by calling 305-229-4424.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea near 09N13W to 04N22W, where scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ near 42N22W and to the delta of
the Amazon river near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 00N to 05N between 22W to 34W and
scattered showers along the ITCZ between 34W to 49W. Seas range
between 4 to 6 ft within 200 nm on either side of both boundaries.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Broken
to overcast low clouds are along and inland the Texas coastal
plains. Patches of fog, some dense, are over the NW Gulf. Latest
ship obs and altimeter data show wave heights ranging between 2 to
4 ft across the basin.
For the forecast, weak high pressure has settled in over the
area. This high pressure will shift eastward through Wed in
response to an approaching cold front. The cold front will move
across the northern Gulf Wed night, reach from north-central
Florida to southern Texas Thu and become stationary and weaken
through Fri night. Mainly moderate northeast to east winds will
follow in behind the front. A stronger cold front is expected to
move over the NW Gulf late Fri night, and reach from north-central
Florida to the west- central Gulf by late Sat. Fresh to strong
northeast winds will follow in behind this front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from the western Atlantic across central
Cuba into the western Caribbean Sea to 21N84W. The front is
weakening with a few showers still lingering near the boundary.
Further south, scattered showers are moving across Honduras and
Nicaragua east to Hispaniola. Moderate easterly trades prevail
with wave heights between 2 to 4 ft across the basin.
On the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will continue over
the far NW Caribbean through the period, except for pulsing strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, generally moderate to
fresh trade winds will persist through this week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is analyzed from near 30N57W to across central Cuba.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, with scattered moderate
convection are noted to the east of the front from 23N to 32N
between 47W-60W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are noted ahead
of the front with the latest ASCAT pass. Further east, a 1023 mb
high pressure centered near 25N33W remains in control across the
east with broad anticyclonic flow covering north of 26N.
An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the
island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners transiting the
Tropical N Atlantic waters south of 15N between 43W-55W should be
aware of the possibility for the existence of volcanic ash.
For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward and pass east
of the forecast waters on Wed. A secondary cold front or low
pressure trough will cross the northern waters later today through
early Wed, with strong winds and building seas expected N of 27N
and E of 75W. Yet another cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast later this week and over the northern
offshore waters Thu night and Fri, then stall north of the Bahamas
this weekend.
$$
MTorres
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From
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All on Wed Apr 14 13:07:00 2021
013
AXNT20 KNHC 141723
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
occasional emissions from its summit. The volcano could
erupt at any time with little notice. Ash may be reaching the
surface of the ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced.
Mariners who are transiting the waters near Saint Vincent should
exercise caution. If you encounter volcanic ash or volcanic
debris, please report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center, at 305-229-4424.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 10W-22W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A weakening cold front extends across the eastern Gulf including
the Florida Straits from 27N85W to 23N80W. The next frontal
system is developing over the central Gulf states, with
scattered to numerous moderate convection developing north of
29N between 88W-93W. The remainder of the basin is relatively
cloud-free. Latest scatterometer date depicts moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds prevailing across the basin.
The weak cold front will dissipate over the eastern and central
Gulf later today. High pressure will prevail across the basin
through Wed night. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf
Thu, then stall and weaken on Fri. A stronger cold front will
move into the Northwest Gulf on Sat, with strong northerly winds
and building seas expected across the western Gulf this weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special Features section
above for more details.
A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the basin at this
time, according to latest scatterometer data. Seas are 2 to 3
ft across the northern Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
through Sat, except pulsing locally to fresh to strong through
the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of Colombia
through mid week, then in the south-central Caribbean this
weekend. SE winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Northwest
Caribbean starting early Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on the island of St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special
Features section above for more details.
A pair of cold fronts are moving across the western Atlantic
waters. The primary cold front extends from a 1003 mb low near
35N55W to 24N65W to 22N75W, then becomes weak from that point
to 24N80W. To the east, another cold front extends from 31N51W
to 24N58W to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered showers
are noted along and within 200 nm east of this front, with fresh
northerly winds prevailing west of it. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north
of the secondary front, and 8-11 ft along the primary frontal
boundary. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 29N29W. Seas
are generally 5 to 8 ft across the remainder of the basin,
except 3-4 north of the Greater Antilles.
The weakening cold front north of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico will move eastward through early today. Fresh to
strong northerly winds associated with reinforcing cold air north
of the front and east of 70W will shift eastward today and
weaken. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida
into the northern waters by early Fri, then stall north of the
Bahamas this weekend.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 16 17:28:00 2021
482
AXNT20 KNHC 161727
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move
off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of Mexico very early
Saturday morning, between midnight and sunrise. The front will
move southward across the basin bringing strong winds and
building seas. An area of gale force northerly winds is
expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area Saturday night,
behind the front. Seas will build to 9 to 11 ft in that area.
Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
A new eruption occurred early this morning around 1000 UTC.
GOES-16 Geocolor imagery at 1500 UTC this morning shows that
this plume is mainly spreading from St. Vincent towards the west
and northwest, over the eastern Caribbean, as far north as 15N,
and as far west as 63W. Through this evening, the plume of
volcanic ash is forecast to spread as far north as 17N and as
far west as 65W before it begins to thin out tonight. The
volcano remains in a very active state, and additional eruptions
and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the
nearby waters should exercise caution, and are encouraged to
report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling
305-229-4424.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of West Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 06N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N19W to 03N26W to the coast of South America
near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-07N
between 10W-52W. Similar convection is seen from 03S-00N between
33W-49W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front extends from Cedar Key Florida westward to the
28.5N88.5W, in the north-central Gulf, where it transitions to a
warm front that extends to near Freeport Texas. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring along
the coast of SE Louisiana and along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle, which is just north of the frontal boundary. Strong N
to NE winds are occurring in the convection. A recent ASCAT pass
indicates that moderate E winds are elsewhere north of the front
with moderate southerly winds south of the front, over the
eastern half of the Gulf. A weak 1005 mb low is along a trough
near Tuxpan Mexico. The trough extends along the coast from
Veracruz to Tuxpan, then inland to 25N100W. East of that trough,
fair weather prevails over the remainder of the SW and
south-central Gulf. TPW imagery shows lower moisture content
where the fair skies are located. GOES Geocolor imagery and
coastal surface observations from Mexico suggest that smoke or
haze is occurring over portions of the SW Gulf, mainly south of
26N and west of 93W, potentially reducing visibility to 3-5
miles. ASCAT shows fresh SE winds to the west of the Yucatan
Peninsula, south of 22N and east of 94W. Seas are 3-5 feet from
the central to SW Gulf, and 1-3 feet over the eastern Gulf.
For the forecast, the front will remain over the northern Gulf
into Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will
stretch from the Florida Peninsula to Bay of Campeche by the end
of the weekend. Behind the front, gales will develop offshore
Tampico Mexico, Saturday night. Areas of smoke and haze in the
western Gulf will reduce visibility at times today.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on St.
Vincent. See the Special Features section above for details.
A surface trough extends from 17.5N66W east-northeastward to
beyond 20N58W. A line of broken clouds extends along the trough
axis with possible isolated showers. This thin line of scattered
to broken clouds continues WSW to near 16N77W with little
fanfare. The East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered
moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 12N between
76W-85W, including over portions of NW Colombia, eastern Panama,
NE Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. Expect periods of moderate to
heavy rain to continue over portions of Panama and Costa Rica
this afternoon before becoming lighter this evening. A recent
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean
with moderate trades elsewhere, except for light to gentle winds
south of Cuba to the Cayman Islands. Fresh SE winds are also
likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail
over much of the basin, except 1-3 ft south of Cuba to the
Cayman Islands and Jamaica.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean Sun
night through early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N71W to Daytona Beach Florida. A
surface trough is from 30N74W to 28N77W. Well ahead of the
front, scattered moderate convection is seen north of 28N
between 65W-75W. Isolated moderate showers are noted near the
surface trough and cold front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh
to locally strong SW winds ahead of the front, mainly north of
27N between 70W-78W, and mainly north of 29N between 62W-70W.
Seas of 6-9 ft are present in the area of fresh to strong winds.
The cold front will stall north of 28N through Sat then
dissipate as it lifts northward through Sun. A surface ridge
extends from a 1019 mb high pressure near 25N53W to 25N65W to
24N78W near Andros Island Bahamas. Mostly gentle wind speeds are
found from 18N-27N between 40W-80W, where seas are mainly in the
4-7 ft range. High pressure will continue to dominate this same
general area for the next few days.
Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N38W to
25N46W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front
that continues to 23N49W. A surface trough continues from 23N49W
to the NE Caribbean near 18N65W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the cold front from 26N-28N between 41W-43W, and along
the surface trough from 19N-21N between 55W-59W. A secondary
cold front extends from 32N46W to 29N50W. Winds south of 30N are
mainly gentle, but some fresh winds are noted north of 30N. The
cold front from 32N38W to 25N46W will dissipate by early Sat. A
1026 mb high is near 32N28W. This high pressure is expected to
remain in the same general area during the next few days. Fresh
to locally strong trade winds are noted from 07N-20N between the
Cabo Verde Islands and 50W, where seas are 6-8 ft.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 17 10:00:00 2021
013
AXNT20 KNHC 170943
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0600 UTC, a cold front and an
attendant 1008 mb low moved off the Texas coast into the Gulf of
Mexico. The front will move southward across the basin bringing
strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force northerly
winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area tonight,
behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft in that area, before
winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday morning.
Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
The latest eruption occurred early yesterday morning around 1000
UTC. GOES-16 Geocolor imagery from yesterday at 2100 UTC shows
that the plume is becoming diffuse over the east central
Caribbean. The volcano remains in a very active state, and
additional eruptions and ash plumes are possible at any time.
Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution,
and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National
Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau in West Africa near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
02N32W to the coast of Brazil in South America near 00N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N- 07N between 07W-
14W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.
A nearly stationary front along the northern Gulf coast connects
with a 1009 mb low near 29N94W. To the west, a cold front extends
along the Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are located north of 28N across the Gulf. Fresh NE
winds are occurring along the Texas coast behind the front, with
generally moderate SE winds elsewhere.
The weak stationary front will remain over the northern Gulf
into Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will
stretch from near Tampa Bay, Florida to central Bay of Campeche
by the end of the weekend. Behind the front, gales will develop
offshore Tampico, Mexico by Saturday night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on St.
Vincent. See the Special Features section above for details.
Fresh trade winds prevail over the south-central and eastern
Caribbean, with moderate trades in the north central Caribbean.
Scatterometer data reveals an area of fresh to strong SE winds
offshore of Honduras and Belize, with moderate SE winds
elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are over
most of the basin, except offshore of Colombia seas are up to 7
ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean Sun night through early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A slowing cold front extends from near Bermuda to near Melbourne
Florida. A few thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the Florida
coast, along this cold front. Winds are moderate and W to the W
of 70W with seas 3- 5 ft. For the forecast, the front move E but
remain N of 28N this weekend. Another cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate.
Elsewhere, ridging from high pressure dominates supporting gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N and west of 35W. Winds
south of 20N are mainly fresh to locally strong southeasterlies
with seas 6-8 ft. Seas north of 30N range from 7-9 ft.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 17 17:29:00 2021
914
AXNT20 KNHC 171756
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1200 UTC, a cold front and an
attendant 1008 mb low moved off the Texas coast into the Gulf of
Mexico. The front will move southward across the basin bringing
strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force northerly
winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area
tonight, behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft in that
area, before winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday morning.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau in West Africa near 10N15W and continues
southwestward to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to the
coast of Brazil in South America near 00N47W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen 400 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 10W-20W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.
As of 1545 UTC, a nearly stationary front over the Florida
Peninsula transitions to a warm front near 29N86W and connects
with a 1010 mb low south of the Louisiana coast near 29N91W. To
the southwest, a cold front extends southward to near Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located
behind the front extending from South Texas northeast to central
Louisiana near 29N90W. In the Bay of Campeche, an area of low
pressure is centered near 21N96W with a surface trough extending
from 22N94W to 19N97W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the surface trough. Fresh to strong with few gusts
to gale force winds are occurring along the Texas coast behind
the front, with generally moderate SE winds elsewhere. Seas
ranged between 2 to 6 ft across the basin.
A cold front currently moving across the Texas coastal waters
will reach from near Panama City, Florida to 23N95W to the far
southwest Bay of Campeche by this evening. Winds will briefly
reach gale force near Tampico, Mexico tonight west of the front.
The front will stall from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central
Bay of Campeche by early next week.
Looking ahead, reinforcing cool and dry air will push the front
into the far southeast Gulf through mid-week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Current satellite imagery shows very little of ash cloud from
the latest eruption of La Soufriere volcano on Saint Vincent
yesterday morning. The ashfall advisory for the Caribbean waters
west of the Windward Islands has been allowed to expire.
Additional eruptions are possible at any time. The volcano
remains in a continually active state, and additional eruptions
and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the
nearby waters should exercise caution, and are encouraged to
report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling
305-229-4424.
Fresh trade winds prevail over the south-central and eastern
Caribbean, with moderate trades in the north central Caribbean.
Scatterometer data reveals an area of fresh to strong SE winds
offshore of Honduras and Belize, with moderate SE winds
elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are over
most of the basin, except near the Gulf of Honduras with seas
near 8 ft and seas up to 7 ft north of Venezuela near the ABC
Islands.
For the forecast, a ridge extends along 23N through western Cuba.
Fresh to strong SE winds will persist north of central Honduras
through Sun, between the ridge and lower pressure over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will shift east ahead of a
weak front moving into the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase
over mainly the south-central Caribbean early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A slowing cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near
31N73W to 29N76W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
a second area of low pressure near Floridas Big Bend.
Thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the Florida coast, along
this boundary. A cold front extends southwest to the low
southwest of Bermuda and remains north of 29N. At this time,
scattered showers are seen out to 100 nm on either side of the
boundary. Winds are moderate and W to the W of 70W with seas 3-5
ft.
Elsewhere, ridging from high pressure dominates supporting gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N and west of 55W. Winds
south of 20N are mainly fresh to locally strong southeasterlies
with seas 6-8 ft. Seas north of 29N range from 7-9 ft. A surface
trough is noted from 29N37W to 23N55W, with scattered moderate
convection from 21N-26W between 45W to 56W.
For the forecast, the boundary will fluctuate to the north and
south over the waters between roughly Bermuda and northeast
Florida through early next week, as a ridge persists across the
central Bahamas. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift east by
mid-week ahead of a slightly stronger frontal
boundary moving off the southeast U.S. coast by late Wed.
Torres/Christensen
##
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 18 07:29:00 2021
465
AXNT20 KNHC 180936
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W to 02N30W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 220 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-32W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front is located from near Cedar Key, Florida, to
26N90W to just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale
force winds are occurring north of this boundary offshore the
Mexican coast. These strong winds will prevail into tonight, and
are being enhanced by weak low pressure of 1008 mb that has
developed overnight near 21N93W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will also
persist through tonight. Conditions will improve Mon.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the NE Gulf to the
north of the stationary front and E of 90W. A cluster of
thunderstorms is also ongoing about 90 nm E of the Texas Mexico
border. North of the stationary boundary, and away from the
aforementioned Mexican coast, fresh to strong NE winds are
ongoing. Elsewhere, mainly moderate southerly winds prevail.
For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary into
mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front
into the far SE Gulf Wed into Thu.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A trough that extends W into the eastern Pacific continues west to
the coast of Colombia along 10N. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing within 90 nm either side of this trough. Deep layer dry
air is elsewhere, favoring fair weather conditions. The pressure
gradient between higher pressure in the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is allowing for fresh to locally
trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the waters
between Jamaica and Cuba and within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will persist north of
central Honduras into tonight, between the ridge and lower
pressure over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The high will shift
east ahead of a weak front moving through the Gulf allowing trade
winds to increase over mainly the south central Caribbean early
this week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 32N65W roughly along 30N to near
Saint Augustine, Florida. W of 70W along and N of this boundary,
scattered moderate convection is occurring, otherwise generally
dry conditions are located over the basin. To the E of 70W to
around 50W, an area south of the front and S of a weak low
pressure near Bermuda, fresh to locally strong SW winds are
occurring.
Broad surface ridging is across the remainder Atlantic waters,
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N.
Mainly fresh NE to E winds over the West Africa adjacent waters
and over the central tropical waters. Otherwise, a dissipating
surface trough is noted from 31N35W to 25N50W. A few showers and
thunderstorms exist within 60 nm of this boundary. Seas throughout
the basin are 6 to 9 ft.
For the forecast, the stationary front will remain nearly in
place into mid week, as high pressure dominates the SE Part of the
basin. Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly
strong frontal boundary will move off the SE U.S. coast by Thu.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 18 17:14:00 2021
663
AXNT20 KNHC 181742
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 08N20W, and to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from
05N24W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 03SN35W, and
to 03S39W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate,
and locally strong, is from 08N southward from 52W eastward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A warm front passes through 30N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Cedar Key in Florida. The front becomes stationary from Cedar
Key in Florida, to 27N90W in the north central Gulf of Mexico,
and curving to 19N95W along the coast of Mexico. The stationary
front continues northwestward in interior sections of Mexico. A
surface trough is just to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula,
along 90W/91W from 18N in Mexico to 25N. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm to the
south of the stationary front between 83W and 92W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 180 nm on the
northern side of the stationary front, and in Florida and in the
Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward between 76W and 83W.
A nearly stationary front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida,
to 25N92W, to just south of Veracruz in Mexico. Strong to near
gale-force winds are occurring to the west of this boundary
along the Mexican coast. This front will remain nearly
stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air
pushes the front into the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico from
Wednesday into Thursday.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The GFS model for 250 mb shows: broad anticyclonic wind flow in
the Caribbean Sea. A ridge is along 79W, between Jamaica and
80W. The GFS model for 500 mb shows: an anticyclonic circulation
center that is in the northern coastal waters of Haiti.
Anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward from 80W eastward. A NW-to-SE oriented trough extends
from the Yucatan Channel to 13N76W. The GFS model for 700 mb
shows: a ridge from an Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation
center that is near 23N68W, to eastern Honduras/NE Nicaragua.
The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, across
Panama along 08N/09N, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is in a few clusters, from 13N southward from 75W
westward, in general. One of the specific areas of precipitation
is along the coast of Colombia between 75W and 77W. Another
specific area of precipitation is from 10N to 12N between 80W
and 83W.
Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.
A ridge extends to the north of the basin, across the Atlantic
Ocean, through the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong SE winds
north of central Honduras will diminish this afternoon. The high
pressure center will shift eastward, in advance of a weak front
that is moving through the Gulf of Mexico,
allowing the trade winds to increase in mainly the south central
Caribbean Sea through mid week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N59W, to 31N61W. The front is stationary from 31N61W to
31N73W. The front is warm from 31N73W to the NE coast of Florida
near 30N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 24N northward between 40W and 60W, and from 28N northward
from 60W westward.
A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N31W, to 29N42W to 22N59W, across the Bahamas to
24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean away from the 59W-to-NE Florida
frontal boundary southward.
An east-to-west-oriented frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary off the coast of northeastern Florida, through the
early part of the week, as a ridge extends westward from the
central Atlantic Ocean through the central Bahamas. Looking
ahead: as the ridge shifts eastward by Wednesday, a slightly
stronger frontal boundary will move off the southeastern U.S.A.
coast by Thursday.
$$
mt/ec
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Apr 19 17:04:00 2021
457
AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N16W and to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W, to the Equator along 29W, and continuing along the
Equator at 34W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong in clusters is from 07N southward from 40W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 29N82W in Florida, curving into the central Gulf of Mexico
near 26N90W, curving to 23N94W, and reaching the coast of Mexico
near 19N95W. The stationary front continues northwestward in
interior sections of Mexico to 24N100W. A surface trough is
within 60 nm to 180 nm to the southeast of the stationary front.
A second surface trough runs north-to-south, in the Yucatan
Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 25N southward from 87W eastward. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 28N southward from 88W eastward.
A nearly stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida,
to 25N92W, to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong
winds, occurring to the west of this boundary in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, will continue to diminish today.
This front will remain nearly stationary into mid-week, before
reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, from mid-to-late week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The Eastern Caribbean Sea Ashfall Advisory from six hours ago
has ended for the time being. Latest satellite analysis
indicates some faint volcanic aloft removed well to the west and
southwest of the volcano. The Ashfall Advisory has been in
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the island of St. Vincent
near 13.3N 61.2W off and on for the last 8 days or so. The
volcano remains in an active state. Additional eruptions and ash
plumes are possible at any time. Mariners who are transiting the
nearby waters should exercise caution, and they are encouraged
to report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by
calling 305-229-4424.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 66W eastward.
An Atlantic Ocean upper-level trough passes through 13N55W,
toward the eastern sections of Venezuela. The trough is
surrounded by the comparatively drier air. Upper-level NW wind
flow is moving toward Venezuela and Colombia, in general. An
upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in Honduras.
The GFS model for 500 mb shows: an anticyclonic circulation
center that is near 24N61W in the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic
wind flow is covering the Caribbean Sea to the east of the line
that runs from SW Haiti to the coast of Venezuela along 68W. The
GFS model for 700 mb shows: an anticyclonic circulation center
is near 26N61W in the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic wind flow is
covering much of the Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow
covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 14N southward
from 75W westward.
The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across
eastern Panama just to the north of the border with Colombia,
beyond 07N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to
the west of the line that runs from 10N79W, to 15N84W in
eastern Honduras.
Broken to overcast low-level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface to
low-level wind flow.
A ridge extends to the north of the basin, across the Atlantic
Ocean, through the central Bahamas. The ridge will shift
eastward, in advance of a weak front moving across the Gulf of
Mexico. This will be allowing for trade winds to increase in
mainly the south central Caribbean Sea, through mid-week.
Looking ahead: The trade winds will diminish by late week, as
the high pressure shifts eastward, although fresh to strong
winds will persist off Colombia.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front passes through extends from a 1006 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N76W to 31N81W to beyond 29N82W
in Florida. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 240 nm to the south and southeast of
the 1006 mb low pressure center and stationary front, between
69W and 78W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 25N
northward from 64W westward.
A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N26W to 28N36W to 23N50W to 21N65W and to beyond the
coast of Cuba near 23N78W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Atlantic Ocean away from the 31N81W-to-Florida 29N82W
stationary front southeastward.
The current weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary
off the coast of northeastern Florida, through Tuesday night, as
a ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic Ocean to
the central Bahamas. The ridge will slide eastward on Wednesday,
in response to a cold front that will move off the southeastern
U.S.A. coast. The front will reach from near 31N74W to Stuart in
Florida on Wednesday night, and from near Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late Thursday. The front is forecast to begin to
stall near 25N through Friday night, as high pressure builds
between northeastern Florida and Bermuda.
$$
mt/ja
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Apr 20 15:41:00 2021
063
AXNT20 KNHC 201734
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, 03N20W, to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from
01N25W, to the Equator along 35W, and continuing along the
Equator at 45W, to 04N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong in clusters is from 10N southward
from 56W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front passes through Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to
25N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary at
25N85W, and it continues to a 1012 mb low pressure center that
is near 21N95W. The stationary front continues from the 1012 mb
low pressure center, to 19N94W, and to 18N96W. A surface trough
runs north-to-south, in the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm to the south of
the frontal boundary between 81W and 87W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 25N southward from 87W
eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 28N southward from
88W eastward. It is possible that strong gusty winds and rough
seas may be in some of the areas of the comparatively heavier
and more intense precipitation.
A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida, to 24N90W, where
it transitions to a stationary front to the Bay of Campeche. The
cold front will be nudged southward, to the far southeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and to the lower Straits of Florida
on Wednesday night. High pressure in its wake, will shift
eastward through Saturday night, as a cold front reaches eastern
Texas. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the NW
and in the central Gulf of Mexico, from late Friday through
Saturdat. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will be
focused along and near the cold front today and tonight. Some of
this activity may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Water vapor imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an
anticyclonic circulation center that is in the SE coastal
sections of Nicaragua. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward, with an
Atlantic Ocean trough.
The GFS model for 700 mb shows: Broad cyclonic wind flow covers
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N southward from 72W
westward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in SE
Nicaragua. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in a
line from central Panama toward SE Nicaragua.
The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through
the border of Colombia and Panama, beyond 07N80W and 07N86W,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is in SE Nicaragua. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in a line from central Panama toward SE
Nicaragua.
Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.
Fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will
diminish by late in the week, as high pressure in the central
Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward, except near the coast
of Colombia where these winds will persist through the week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A first cold front passes through 32N68W, to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida. A second cold front passes through 32N73W to 30N80W,
about 130 nm to 180 nm to the NW of the first cold front.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated to widely scattered strong, are to the northwest of the
line that passes through 32N50W, to 26N60W, and to 23N80W. It is
possible that strong gusty winds and rough seas may be in some
of the areas of the comparatively heavier and more intense
precipitation.
A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N21W, to a second 1023 mb high pressure center that is
near 28N33W, to a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near
27N43W, 24N69W, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 20N82W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean, away from the 32N68W-to-Lake
Okeechobee in Florida cold front, eastward and southeastward.
The current weak cold front, that extends from 31N70W to West
Palm Beach, Florida will stall E of 75W near 30N tonight, while
W of 75W it will continue slowly southward. By early Wednesday,
the stationary front will have move northward as a warm front,
while the cold front will extend from NE of the Bahamas to the
Florida Keys, and from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to
west central Cuba by late Wednesday night, as another cold front
moves into the NW waters. By late Thursday, both fronts will be
weakening NE of the Bahamas, as high pressure builds into the
area. The high pressure will shift eastward through Saturday
night, as a stronger cold front approaches the southeastern
U.S.A. coast. The stronger cold front will be preceded by fresh
to strong southerly winds in the far NW waters, along with
possible scattered showers and thunderstorms.
$$
mt/ja
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Apr 21 15:29:00 2021
377
AXNT20 KNHC 211721
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 05S northward to 180 nm north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, between the coast of Africa and 36W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 01S-08N between 42W-57W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends over the southern Gulf of Mexico from
Lake Okeechobee Florida to 21N94W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the stationary
front, north of 23N and east of 88W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are over the southern half of the Florida
Peninsula. The stationary front will move SE as a cold front
this afternoon, exiting the Gulf this evening. Expect for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over the
southeast Gulf waters near the front through this afternoon.
Seas will be in the 3-5 ft range over most of the basin this
afternoon.
Farther north, a cold front extends from Destin Florida to
28N89W to 27N94W to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. High
pressure of 1027 mb centered over north Texas is ushering in
cooler air behind the cold front, with latest surface
observations showing fresh N-NE winds north of the cold front. A
recent ASCAT pass also shows a large area of fresh N winds over
the central Gulf, in between the two fronts. The cold front will
reach from west-central Florida to the central Gulf by late
tonight, then weaken early Thu as it reaches from southwest
Florida to near 23N90W. On Fri, fresh to strong southerly return
flow will develop over the western Gulf, shift to the central
Gulf early Sat and diminish late Sat as another cold front
enters the far NW Gulf. This cold front will move across the
rest of the Gulf through Sun night as it weakens.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A recent ASCAT pass on Wednesday morning shows strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds prevail
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean. The ASCAT pass
shows gentle wind speeds over the Windward Passage, north of
Jamaica and south of Cuba. Seas are likely 7-10 ft in the
south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft elsewhere over the eastern and
central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the NW basin. Overall, dry
conditions prevail, except for a few showers east of the Yucatan
Peninsula and northern Belize as well as over central Cuba.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will diminish slightly late in the week as high
pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near
the coast of Colombia where these winds will persist through the
week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low near 33N69W to
Lake Okeechobee Florida. A warm front extends SE from the low to
30N61W, where it transitions to a cold front that extends E to
29N55W to 32N45W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen
along and within 90 nm SE of the stationary front over the
western Atlantic. Farther east, scattered showers are seen along
the warm front and cold front. A surface ridge axis extends
across the subtropical Atlantic from 30N25W to a 1025 mb high
pressure near 27N36W to a 1024 mb high pressure near 28N56W to
the central Bahamas. Mainly moderate wind speeds of 10-15 kt
prevail across the western Atlantic, except for fresh closer to
the 1014 mb low and in the convection along the stationary
front. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere near the ridge
axis over the central and eastern Atlantic, generally from
23N-30N, except near the coast of Africa, where fresh NE winds
are observed. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the
tropical Atlantic, from 06N-21N between 35W-65W. Seas are 4-5 ft
over the W Atlantic and across the subtropical Atlantic near the
ridge axis. Higher seas of 6-8 ft are located north of 30N east
of 75W, and also in the tropical Atlantic, where the fresh
trades are observed.
For the forecast west of 65W, the west Atlantic stationary front
will transition back to a cold front today, and merge with a
secondary front emerging off the SE U.S. coast tonight. N of
28N, fresh to strong SW winds are possible ahead of the first
front, with strong NW winds possible behind the second front.
High pressure will shift eastward through Sat night as a
stronger cold front approaches the SE U.S. coast. This front is
expected to move across the western Atlantic Sun and Sun night,
preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and possible
thunderstorms.
Currently, a storm force 998 mb low pressure north of the area
near 38N42W extends a cold front SW to beyond 32N45W. The gales
associated with this storm will remain north of 32N as it moves
ENE over the north Atlantic. However, swell from this storm will
produce seas of 11-14 ft, generally north of 28N and east of 40W
tonight through Fri.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Apr 22 15:36:00 2021
878
AXNT20 KNHC 221715
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W and continues SW to 05N20W to 03N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N23W to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near
01S48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
located from 00N-06N between 05W-21W, from 03S-04N between
25W-32W, and from 03S-04N between 45W-51W. Isolated moderate
showers are elsewhere from 03S-06N between 05W-51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front is over the Florida Straits from 24N80W to
23N87W, dissipating to 23N90W. A second stationary front is
located from near Ft. Myers Florida to 26N90W, with a
dissipating warm front analyzed from 26N90W to the coast of
Texas near 27N97.5W. Clouds are near the frontal boundaries but
no significant precipitation is noted. A recent ASCAT pass shows
moderate to locally fresh east winds across most of the basin
north of 23N, with gentle winds in the SW Gulf. Seas range from
3 to 5 ft, highest in the west-central Gulf. Patchy areas of
smoke and haze are possible in the Bay of Campeche due to
agricultural fires in Mexico.
The stationary front that extends from Fort Myers Florida to
26N90W will lift north as a warm front Friday through Saturday.
A new cold front will then enter the NW Gulf Sat afternoon and
move across the rest of the Gulf through Sun evening. High
pressure in the wake of the front will slide
eastward through Mon night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Mid to upper level ridging covers most of the Caribbean with
subsidence and relatively dry air. A recent ASCAT pass shows
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere east of 80W. Moderate winds are seen in
the SW Caribbean, and gentle winds are over the NW basin. Seas
are in the 6-9 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
over the NW part of the basin.
Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
diminish slightly into the weekend as high pressure over the
central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of
Colombia where these winds will persist through the weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from Bermuda to 27N73W, where it
transitions to a stationary front that continues to Andros
Island Bahamas through the Florida Straits to 23.5N83W.
Scattered moderate tstorms are along and within 60 nm east of
the entire front to the northeast of Andros Island. A second
cold front extends from 32N71W to Lake Okeechobee Florida.
Isolated showers are SE of this front. Fresh N to NE winds are
seen on a recent ASCAT pass to the north and west of the second
front, extending to the coast of northern and central Florida.
Elsewhere over the western Atlantic to the south of the second
front, wind speeds are mostly moderate, except gentle near a
surface ridge axis that lies from the central Bahamas to 26N65W
to 29N53W. Seas are 5-7 ft in the fresh wind area east of
northern Florida, and 3-6 ft over the rest of the western
Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 65W, the second front will merge with
the first front by this evening, and the combined cold front
will stretch from 31N64W through the NW Bahamas to the Florida
Straits tonight. Winds behind the second front will diminish to
moderate to fresh this afternoon. Sun morning, a stronger cold
front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast and
move across the waters NE of the Bahamas through Mon night while
weakening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede this
front east of northern Florida Sat and Sat night, and shift
eastward through Sun night. Scattered showers and tstorms are
possible ahead of this front.
E of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N24W to 28N34W to
27.5N44W, then continues as a stationary front to 29N50W to
32N52W. Scattered moderate showers are near the front east of
34W. Fresh NW winds are north of the front east of 34W, where
seas are 9-13 ft. Gentle winds are south of the front and north
of 23N, due to surface ridging, where seas are 4-7 ft. A 1027 mb
high pressure is centered near 32N45W. Fresh trades cover the
tropical Atlantic from 05N-21N between 35W-61W, where seas are
6-8 ft.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 23 16:59:00 2021
602
AXNT20 KNHC 231746
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N32W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 09N
between 10W-20W. Similar convection is noted within 200 nm north
of the ITCZ between 29W-39W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front previously across the central
Gulf of Mexico has lifted north as a warm front. The boundary
now stretches from the Texas/Louisiana border to the central Gulf
near 28N90W. High pressure centered over the southern U.S. is
allowing for fresh E-SE winds over most of the basin with seas of
3-6 ft. The latest surface observations along the coast of Mexico
show reduced visibility due to smoke from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico affecting the adjacent waters in the SW Gulf,
including along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The warm front is expected to lift north later today. Fresh to
strong southeasterly winds will prevail across the Gulf today
through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the
northern Gulf coast today through Saturday night. A cold front
will enter the NW Gulf on Sat evening and continue progressing
eastward through Sun, exiting the basin by Sun night. Light to
gentle winds will prevail early next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge covers much of the
Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An
upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across the
central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea, into eastern
Venezuela.
The ridge is allowing for deep layer dry air over most of the
basin indicated by low level precipitable water and mid-level
water vapor imagery, which is favoring fair weather conditions.
The latest scatterometer data reveals fresh trades over the
eastern and south-central Caribbean and with gentle to moderate
winds in the north-central and northwest Caribbean. Locally fresh
winds may be within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-5 ft across
the basin except waters offshore of Colombia where seas are up to
10 ft.
Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras will diminish this weekend as high pressure in the
central Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong
winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through early next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the
weekend into early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N61W continuing
southwest to the northern Bahamas near 26N78W. A pre-frontal
trough stretches from 30N62W to 26N 72W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are behind the front. Scattered moderate convection is
within 160 nm ahead of the front.
A 1026 mb high pressure center is anchored near 31N40W allowing
for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N. South of
20N, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail. Farther east, a cold
front passes across the Canary Islands to 23N35W where the
remainder of the front is dissipating to 27N46W. No significant
weather is associated with this front.
The cold front across the SW North Atlantic will dissipate later
today. A cold front will move east of northern Florida on Sun
morning, then weaken and move NE of the Bahamas through Mon
night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the
front Sat and Sat night, then shift eastward over the northern
waters through Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds can be expected
behind the front. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are
possible east of the front.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 24 08:52:00 2021
653
AXNT20 KNHC 241025 RRA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from
03N21W to 00N34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
the 02N-05N between 13W-34W, and from 00N-06N between 42W-49W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Recent buoy and platform observations along with scatterometer
satellite data indicate fresh to strong SE winds in the central
and western Gulf of Mexico, between high pressure east of the
Carolinas and low pressure across Texas. Seas are 6 to 7 ft over
the central and western Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 4
ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico is noted on satellite imagery, causing
hazy sky conditions affecting much of the southwest and west-
central Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail
across the Gulf today, ahead of a cold front that will enter the
NW Gulf this evening. The front will move east of the basin Sun
night. Hazy sky conditions are likely to continue across most of
the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern Caribbean Sea is
maintaining fairly dry conditions across the basin. Fresh to
strong trade winds are active off Colombia, and scatterometer
data shows fresh to strong winds north of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are over the south-central and southeast
Caribbean, and moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4
ft in the northern Caribbean and mostly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high
pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh
to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through
early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1024 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and South
Carolina near 32N71W. A cold front reaches from near 32N53W to
26N65W. Isolated showers are noted within 90 nm east of the
front north of 28N. Moderate NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are
noted west of the front. Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is
centered near 32N39W, with a dissipating cold front reaching
from Morocco through the Canary Islands to 23N21W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 23N21W to 20N33W to 27N48W. Moderate to
fresh NW winds along with 9 to 14 ft seas in NW swell are north
of 15N west of the front to 35W. Moderate to locally fresh
trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move east of
northern Florida on Sun, then weaken as it moves NE of the
Bahamas through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop ahead of the front later today. Scattered showers and
strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 24 18:56:00 2021
923
AXNT20 KNHC 242122
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W
to 02N30W to 00N45W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 07W-
11W. Scattered moderate from 02N-05N between 20W-35W, and from
00N-04N between 42W-47W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1005 mb low pressure center is over the southwest Gulf off the
coast of Veracruz near 21N96W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicated moderate to fresh NW winds between the low
pressure and the coast near Tampico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge
extends from the western Atlantic to the northwest Gulf. Fresh SW
winds are evident over the northeast and north-central Gulf,
between the ridge axis and a frontal boundary just inland. Seas
are 5 to 8 ft in this area, as noted in recent altimeter
satellite data and buoy observations. Mostly moderate southerly
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A large
plume of smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is
noted in satellite imagery causing hazy sky conditions and
possibly lower visibility as far as the northeast Gulf. Smoke
may be dense over portions of the central Gulf.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across
the Gulf through tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
this evening and push eastward across the basin through Sun with
winds diminishing behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms can
be expected across the north- central Gulf through tonight. Hazy
sky conditions from fires in southern Mexico are possible across
most of the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern
Caribbean Sea is maintaining fairly dry conditions across the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds off
Colombia and over the northwest Caribbean from the central coast
of Honduras to northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the
eastern and central Caribbean with gentle to moderate SE winds
south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is observed across the basin.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high
pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh
to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through
early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of
the Greater Antilles by midweek. Fresh to strong winds could
return to the Gulf of Honduras later in the week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure is centered near
Bermuda to central Florida. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an area of
lower pressure over the southeast United States. A few showers
and thunderstorms are evident in a line from near Jacksonville
to 32N79W. Mostly moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere west
of 65W, with fresh winds evident along the north coast of
Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in open waters.
Another 1024 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N37W. A
cold front is analyze between the two high pressure areas from
32N50W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure area between
Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to strong NW winds
north of 28N and east of 30W, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW swell
north of 18N. Elsewhere mostly moderate trade winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are noted south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are evident north of 20N.
For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the fresh to strong
southerly winds off the coast of Florida and will continue
overnight. A cold front will move east of northern Florida early
Sun morning, then weaken as it moves NE of the Bahamas through
Mon night. Winds will diminish as the front moves across the
area. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible
east of the front.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 25 07:15:00 2021
725
AXNT20 KNHC 251012
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea/Sierra
Leone border near 09N13W then continues SW to 03N20W to 02N26W.
The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N
between 13W-25W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are
noted over parts of Liberia and Ivory Coast.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure centered over
South Carolina/Georgia border to the Florida Panhandle, and
across the northern Gulf into southern Texas. Fresh northerly
winds and seas less than 8 ft are noted in the wake of the front.
A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front over
the NE Gulf and northern Florida. The front will push eastward
across the Gulf waters through this evening while gradually
weakening. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the NE Gulf east of the front. Light to
gentle winds are seen elsewhere ahead of the front with the
exception of moderate NE winds near the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects.
Hazy sky conditions from agricultural fires in southern Mexico
are possible across most of the western Gulf of Mexico today.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected across the western Gulf
Wed and Wed night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach
the coast of Texas late Thu or Thu night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Recent scatterometer data depict fresh to strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with seas
to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in
the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate SE
winds south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the
basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of
these patches of moisture are currently affecting Puerto Rico and
the US/UK Virgin Islands as well as Hispaniola.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
the south-central Caribbean through Mon night, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds in the
Gulf of Honduras will diminish this morning, and could return Thu
night as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the lee of the Greater
Antilles, including the Windward Passage by midweek as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023 mb
high pressure located near 32N58W. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an
area of low pressure located over South Carolina/Georgia border.
The attendant cold front will move east of northern Florida this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are on increase over the waters
N of 29N and W of 74W to NE Florida. The cold front is forecast
to reach from 31N72W to central Florida this evening, from 28N65W
to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Mon evening, and from
26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue evening while weakening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are noted per
scatterometer data N of 27N west of 65W while mainly moderate
E-SE winds are observed S of 27N and W of 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
E of the Bahamas.
Another 1022 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N38W. A
surface trough is analyze between the two high pressure areas
and runs from 31N48W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure
area between Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to
strong NW winds just north of the forecast waters, with seas of
10-16 ft. Seas of 8-13 ft dominate most of the region from 20N-
31N and E of 30W. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to
8 ft seas are noted south of 20N.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 25 18:21:00 2021
270
AXNT20 KNHC 252150
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
Guinea/Sierra Leone border near 09N13W and continues SW to
05N15W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is seen from 00N-07N between 01E-13W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N
between 16W-35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to the west central
Gulf of Mexico near 23N96W. Fresh NE winds are occurring to the
north of the cold front over the northeast and north-central Gulf,
where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are south
of the front, with 2-4 ft seas. A pair of weak surface troughs
are noted over the far southwest Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the southern Gulf. No
significant precipitation is observed over the Gulf. Smoke from
agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is
spreading across the southwest Gulf and reaching into the central
and northeast Gulf along and to the south of the cold front, limiting visibility in areas.
For the forecast, the cold front will push eastward across the
Gulf waters through this evening while gradually weakening.
Moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds over the north-
central gulf and north of the front will diminish this evening.
Otherwise, fresh to strong SE to S winds are forecast across the
western half of the Gulf Tue evening through Thu morning ahead of
the next cold front which is expected to come off the coast of
Texas late on Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds following this
front will affect the eastern coast of Mexico and adjacent
waters.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Mid to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the
Caribbean Sea, supporting subsidence and dry weather across the
basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing off northeast
Colombia with 5 to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh
SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are evident between central Honduras
and northern Belize. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5
ft seas are evident elsewhere.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected
in the south-central and portions of the southwest Caribbean
through early Wed, then mainly moderate to locally fresh winds
will prevail through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh east-
southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras are forecast to increase
to fresh to strong Wed night as a cold front moves across the
Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the
Windward Passage Tue night to Fri as high pressure builds over
the western Atlantic.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 32N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted within 90
nm of the cold front north of 29N. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 30N within 300 to 480
nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted west of the front. A ridge extends from a 1024 mb
high pressure near 34N54W to the northern Bahamas. A 1022 mb high
pressure area is centered near 29N37W, with a dissipating
stationary front in between the two high pressure cells, north of
30N. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident
east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds south of 20N, with
4 to 6 ft seas, and light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas
north of 20N.
For the forecast over the waters west of 65W, the front is
forecast to reach from 31N72W to central Florida this evening,
from 28N65W to the northwest Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
Mon evening, and from 26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue
evening while weakening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
ahead of the front and west of 67W.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Apr 26 15:46:00 2021
572
AXNT20 KNHC 261721
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
seen from 03S-04N between 05W-12W, and from 03S-05N between
21W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N
between 37W-53W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the Florida Keys west to 25N85W. A
stationary front continues west to 25N91W. No significant
precipitation is observed over the basin due to subsidence from
a mid-level ridge. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle E-SE winds
south of the front and east of 88W, with moderate E winds north
of the front. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail
across the basin, with some locally fresh speeds off the coast
of southern Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the west-central Gulf,
with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural and forest
fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across portions of
the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of 90W,
limiting visibility in some areas.
For the forecast, the cold front will move across the SE Gulf
early this afternoon while gradually weakening. Fresh to strong
SE winds are expected across the western Gulf Tue night through
Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
Gulf waters late on Thu. Gale conditions are possible over the
SW Gulf behind the front on Fri. Currently, the forecast calls
for NW to N winds of 30 to 35 kt and seas in the 7 to 10 ft
range.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Mid-level ridging continues to dominate the basin, producing
subsidence. As a result, there is no significant precipitation
seen over the Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass continues to show
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds are
noted in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle SE winds cover the NW part of the
basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are offshore Colombia, while 3-5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 1-3 ft cover the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia tonight
and again Tue night. Then, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast
in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic Tue night through Thu night as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
W of 60W: A cold front extends from Bermuda to 28N71W to the
northern tip of Andros Island Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A
band of scattered moderate showers and tstorms is within 150 nm
southeast of the front, mainly north of 24N and east of 76W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N to NE winds behind the front,
north of 28N east of 79W. Fresh S to SW winds are noted ahead of
the front and N of 30N to about 58W. Seas are 5-7 ft north of
28N between 62W-78W. Mostly gentle wind speeds are observed
south of 24N and west of 70W. The front will reach from 31N60W
to the central Bahamas tonight while weakening. High pressure in
the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through
Fri. The next cold front will move off NE Florida by Fri evening.
E of 60W: A weak cold front enters the forecast waters near
32N36W and continues SW to near 27N43W, then continues as
stationary to 27N46W. Isolated showers are along and within 45
nm ahead of the cold front. The remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a surface high pressure
ridge. Gentle winds are from 20N-30N over the eastern and
central Atlantic. Farther south, ASCAT shows fresh trades from
05N-18N between 35W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. The northerly
swell that had been occurring east of 30W is now subsiding, with
seas currently 6-8 ft over the far eastern Atlantic.
$$
Hagen
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From
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All on Tue Apr 27 15:17:00 2021
024
AXNT20 KNHC 271653
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to
05N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N36W. A break in
the ITCZ occurs with a trough from 05N38W to 01N41W. The ITCZ
resumes from 03N43W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists south
of 05N east of 10W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from
00N to 06N between 30W and 40W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure extends over the southeastern United
States promoting E to SE gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf
this morning. Seas are small, generally 3-4 ft across the Gulf.
No significant deep convection is present, though scattered
showers are occurring within 120 NM of the Texas and NE Mexico
coasts. Additionally, some haze is noted in the SW and W Central
Gulf due to agricultural and forest fires occurring in Mexico.
Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas of 8 to 9 ft are
expected across the western Gulf tonight through Thu morning
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters
on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over SW
Gulf, including the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche on Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate north-south pressure gradient from a 1025 mb Bermuda
High near 33N74W and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela
are contributing to generally gentle to moderate NE to E trades
across the Caribbean. The exception is fresh to strong NE winds
just north of Colombia. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the
Caribbean, except 6-8 ft just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is noted over the Caribbean this morning,
typical of April conditions. Scattered showers are present just
south of Hispaniola and adjacent to the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh
trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are
forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold
front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and
south of the Dominican Republic tonight through early Thu as
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N57W to 27N65W, where
it transitions to a stationary front to 24N74W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 23N to 32N between 55W and 62W
ahead of the front. Winds northwest of the front are NE to E
moderate to fresh, while southeast of the front winds are gentle
or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft northwest of the front and slightly
less southeast of the front.
The cold will shift eastward while weakening today. High
pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast
waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off
the northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the
waters N of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night.
East of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N31W to 28N31W, where
it transitions to a trough to 25N44W. Scattered showers are
present within 120 NM east of the front. A moderate north-south
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to fresh NE to E trades
across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7
ft, mainly due to NW to N swell. Little change in winds or seas
are anticipated for the next few days.
$$
Landsea/Rivera-Acevedo
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From
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All on Wed Apr 28 14:58:00 2021
121
AXNT20 KNHC 281830 CCA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021
Corrected Gulf of Mexico section
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W and continues southward to 03N21W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 08N between 11W and 46W.
GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected
A surface ridge extends westward from the western Atlantic
across northern Florida into the north-central Gulf waters. This
ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
over the majority of the Gulf, as noted in recent scatterometer
data. A large area of haze and some smoke continues in the SW
and W Central Gulf areas due to agricultural fires in southern
Mexico. In the near coastal waters of the SW gulf, low-level
visibility may be reduced to 6 nm or less due to the smoke.
For the forecast, fresh southeast winds and building over
the western Gulf will continue through tonight as low pressure
deepens over southwestern Texas. Its associated cold front will
move to just offshore the Texas coast Thu evening, and slowly
move across the NW Gulf through Fri. It will reach from west-
central Florida to the central Gulf and to the Bay of Campeche
by early Sat and become stationary. The front will lift back to
the north as a warm front through Sun, except the portion over
the western Gulf will weaken and dissipate by late Sun. Fresh to
strong northerly winds quickly surge southward behind the front
W of 96W and S of 25N Fri and Fri night. The smoke in the SW
Gulf are expected to continue through at least the end of the
week, while hazy conditions will remain over the west-central
Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Atlantic high pressure N of the area near 32N69W is supporting
areas of fresh winds in the Windward Channel, the Gulf of
Honduras, and near the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the rest of the
basin. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 4 ft except 5-6 ft in the
areas of higher winds noted above. An area of active convection
prevails over northern Colombia and Venezuela, with a few
showers also noted near the ABC Islands and southern Windward
Islands.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast
winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night as
a cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun
night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a
1025 mb high centered near 32N69W. A stationary front extends
across the central Atlantic from 31N51W to 20N65W. Scattered
showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the front.
Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate NE winds immediately
west of the front, and moderate to fresh easterly winds further
east of the front and north of Puerto Rico and the Leeward
Islands. To the east, a surface trough, the remnant of an old
frontal boundary, stretches from 30N24W to 22N40W. Scattered
showers are noted along the trough.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the west
Atlantic will change little through the period. Southerly winds
will begin to increase over the northwest waters late Thu in
advance of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to
move over those waters late Fri into Sat, and across the waters
N and NE of the Bahamas through Sun night as it weakens. High
pressure will build in over the area in the wake of this front.
$$
ERA/JA
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From
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All on Thu Apr 29 14:33:00 2021
246
AXNT20 KNHC 291711
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W S
of the Equator to 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04S-07N between 18W and 40W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean across Florida
to Louisiana. An area of low pressure is analyzed over northern
Mexico, and a 1009 mb low pressure system is over Central Texas.
Scatterometer data shows a large area of fresh to strong SE winds
across the western Gulf. Wave heights range between 6 to 8 ft in
the western Gulf and 4 to 6 ft east of 90W. No significant deep
convective is apparent in satellite imagery. A large area of haze
and some smoke is evident in the southwest and west-central Gulf
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the near-coastal
waters of the SW gulf, low-level visibility may be reduced at
times due to dense smoke.
For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds and building
seas will continue this morning in the western Gulf. A cold front
moving off the Texas coast tonight will reach from northern
Florida to the western Bay of Campeche Fri night, then weaken and
dissipate this weekend. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in
the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure north of the basin and weak low pressure over
northern South America is supporting gentle to moderate trade
winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are
north of Honduras, where fresh to locally strong E to SE winds
are noted. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across the entire basin,
except 5-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel.
An area of active convection continues over northern Colombia
and Venezuela, with widespread shower activity and a few
embedded thunderstorms also noted extending from northeast of
Venezuela from the A-B-C Islands across all of the Lesser Antilles
south of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight as a
cold front moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through
Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the southern forecast waters,
and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 25N, east of
60W, based on scatterometer data. A weakening stationary front
extends from north of the area through 32N47W to 25N57W. Scattered
showers are noted along the frontal boundary. A large area of
showers and few embedded thunderstorms spreads northeast from
Venezuela, across the Lesser Antilles, into the tropical North
Atlantic. Further east, a 1014 mb low is centered near 28N17W,
with a cyclonically curved surface trough trailing away from the
low, to 21N25W to 24N37W. A second weak low pressure is noted on
the latest scatterometer to the west near 27N21W. Isolated showers
are evident near the trough axis and north of the Canary Islands.
Seas are 3-5 ft across the northern forecast waters, 5-6 ft in
the southern forecast waters east of the Bahamas, and 5 to 7 ft
over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Windward
Islands.
For the forecast, a weakening stationary front over the central
Atlantic will dissipate today. The next cold front will move
into the northern waters Sat, then weaken and shift east of the
forecast area on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are expected in the vicinity of the front.
$$
MTorres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 30 17:40:00 2021
487
AXNT20 KNHC 302139
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1910 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 13N19W. The ITCZ continues from 13N19W to 01N31W to 01N49W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
01N-07N between 07W-24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 24W and 35W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
35W-51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure at 1019 mb is centered in the northeast Gulf near
27N86W. A pronounced surface trough is analyzed in the western
Gulf from 26N93W to 20N96W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible within the vicinity of the trough. A cold front
extends from the Georgia/Florida border to across the Florida
panhandle where it continues west-northwest. A 1013 mb low
pressure is over coastal Texas near 28N97W. A stationary front
extends southeast-south into the west-central Gulf near 22N97W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near the front,
mainly within 60 nm of shore and inland, from the Florida
Panhandle westward. Also, patchy to areas of smoke remain possible
from the Yucatan Peninsula to across the southwest Gulf due to
ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America and
Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may occasionally reduce
visibilities. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3 ft
or less are noted near the high center, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere east of the trough along with seas of 3-6 ft,
locally to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the
surface trough to the coast of eastern Mexico.
For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain over the western
Gulf through Sat, then move northward as a warm front late Sat
into Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near
the front. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the southwest
Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly
return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure ridging remains north of the basin with 1012 mb low
pressure near the border of northern Colombia/Venezuela. A
surface trough is analyzed from just east-southeast of the Anegada
Passage southwest to 11N67W. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible across the eastern Caribbean with mid-to-upper level
southwesterly flow advecting plentiful moisture from the deep
tropics to across the area. Patchy to areas of smoke are possible
in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to
ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This
smoke and associated haze may reduce visibilities. Mainly gentle
to moderate trades prevail across the basin, locally fresh from
15N-18N. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and mainly 3-6
ft elsewhere across the basin, locally to 7 ft south of Hispaniola
and near the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, fresh E-SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to strong
Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens
between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the Gulf of
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across
the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of
the Caribbean early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure near 28N62W extends southwest-west to across south
Florida. Earlier scatterometer data indicated a trough from near
31N77W to near Jupiter, Florida with scattered showers ahead of it.
A cold front is just west-northwest of the area from near coastal
Georgia to across the Florida Panhandle. Moderate to fresh SW
winds are noted north of 27N and west of 65W, locally fresh to
strong along 31N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail from
22N-27N, with moderate trades south of 22N. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range west of 65W to the Bahamas, highest north of 27N and south
of 22N.
To the east, 1022 mb high pressure is located near 30N44W. A ridge
axis extends from 29N45W through the high to 27N65W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N. with moderate to
locally fresh trades south of 24N across the open waters of the
central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range across this same area.
For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front
will enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late tonight
into early Sat, then shift east of the forecast area and weaken
on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on
Sat. In the wake of the front, high pressure will persist east of
the area early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east
of Florida.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 1 08:05:00 2021
785
AXNT20 KNHC 011008
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N20W TO 03N35W. The ITCZ continues from 03N35W to 02N42W to
01S47W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted from 01S-05N between 18W-29W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 01S-06N between
10W-36W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04S-08N
between 36W-54W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak stationary front is oriented E-W from the big bend of
Florida to 28.5N93W. A surface trough continues from 28.5N93W SW
to 25N97W. Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 26N and
west of 95W, including over southeast Texas. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 22N-26N and west of 96W. A 1018 mb surface
high pressure is centered near 27N87W. Gentle winds are over the
NE Gulf near the high pressure. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere,
although some fresh winds are likely occurring NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Fresh NE to E winds are also possible along and north
of the front near the coasts of Louisiana and upper Texas. Seas
are 3-5 ft over the SW half of the Gulf and 1-3 ft over the NE
Gulf. Areas of smoke were observed across the southwest Gulf
south of 23N due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of
Central America and Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may
occasionally reduce visibilities.
For the forecast, the surface trough will remain over the NW Gulf
through today. The stationary front will move northward as a weak
warm front tonight into Sun morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue near the trough and front over the NW
Gulf through early Sun. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in
the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh
southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of
the basin. Looking ahead, a weak cold front could reach the Texas
coast early Wed.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GOES-16 water vapor channels show dry air in the low to mid levels
over the central and western Caribbean. This is due to mid-level
ridging, which is causing subsidence. A sharp upper trough
persists from over the central Atlantic to the Mona Passage to
northeast Nicaragua. This is also acting to suppress showers along
and NW of the upper trough axis. However, some showers are
occurring SE of the upper-trough axis, between the ABC Islands and
the Leeward Islands. Patchy areas of smoke are possible in the
northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to ongoing
agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This smoke
and associated haze may reduce visibilities.
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and lower pressure inland over Mexico is tight enough to
support fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras. However, the
high pressure is weak enough that gentle to moderate trade winds
are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to
strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere
across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across
most of the Caribbean early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N77W to St. Augustine Florida. A
few showers are near the front. A ridge extends from 1022 mb high
pressure near 32N28W to 1022 mb high pressure near 29N36W to 1018
mb high pressure near 25N62W to South Florida. Moderate to fresh
SW to W winds are evident north of 28N west of 65W, and SE of the
stationary front, with 4 to 7 ft seas in the area. Moderate to
fresh E winds are also possible off the N coast of Hispaniola,
but generally light to gentle breezes persist across the
subtropical Atlantic within a few hundred nm of the surface ridge
axis. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere in open waters west of 65W.
Farther east, the subtropical ridge dominates north of 20N. Fresh
to locally strong N to NE winds are noted off the northwest coast
of Africa, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds are south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft
seas.
For the forecast, the stationary front from 31N77W to St.
Augustine Florida will move southeastward as a cold front and
extend from 31N70W to Daytona Beach Florida later this morning,
then from 31N60W to 28N70W to Stuart, Florida this evening. The
front will stall and weaken early Sun west of 65W and dissipate
late Sun. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the vicinity of
the front today north of 29N. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will persist east of the area early next week, leading to
moderate southerly winds east of Florida. For the forecast in the
far eastern Atlantic, expect N winds offshore of Morocco to
increase to strong to near gale force this afternoon and persist
through the weekend.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 1 15:38:00 2021
307
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 03N40W to 02N50W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
03S-10N between 12W-33W, and 260 nm south between 37W-46W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, A cold front extends from the western Atlantic
to a weak stationary front oriented E to W from 87W to a 1012 mb
low pressure near 27N96W. The stationary front continues south to
near Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough continues from 21N89W SW
to 18N93W. Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 26N
and west of 95W, including over southeast Texas. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 22N-26N and west of 96W. Gentle
winds prevail over the NE Gulf. Moderate winds are noted
elsewhere, although some fresh winds are likely occurring NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh NE to E winds are also possible
along and north of the front near the coasts of Louisiana and
upper Texas. Seas are 3-5 ft over the SW half of the Gulf and 1-
3 ft over the NE Gulf. Areas of smoke were observed across the
southwest Gulf south of 23N due to ongoing agricultural fires
over portions of Central America and Mexico. This smoke and
associated haze may occasionally reduce visibilities.
For the forecast, the weak frontal boundary will remain over the
western Gulf through today, then move northward as a warm front
tonight into early Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected near the front over the NW Gulf through early Sun. Areas
of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will
prevail early next week over much of the basin. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front could reach the Texas coast early Wed.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GOES-16 water vapor channels show dry air in the low to mid
levels over the central and western Caribbean. This is due to
mid-level ridging, which is causing subsidence. A sharp upper
trough persists from over the central Atlantic to the Mona
Passage to northeast Nicaragua. This is also acting to suppress
showers along and NW of the upper trough axis. However, some
showers are occurring SE of the upper-trough axis, between the
ABC Islands and the Leeward Islands. Patchy areas of smoke are
possible in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of
Honduras due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of
Central America. This smoke and associated haze may reduce
visibilities.
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and lower pressure inland over Mexico is tight enough to
support fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras. However, the
high pressure is weak enough that gentle to moderate trade winds
are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to
strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere
across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across
most of the Caribbean early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
For the waters west of 65W, a cold front enters the waters from
30N74W to 27N80W near Palm Beach, Florida. A surface trough is
noted from the northern Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A few
showers are near the front east of 78W. Scatterometer pass shows
fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front north of 30N
and moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front. East of 65W,
a ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 31N30W westward
to South Florida. A surface trough is noted from 25N54W to
17N56W. Moderate to fresh E winds are also possible off the N
coast of Hispaniola, but generally light to gentle breezes
persist across the subtropical Atlantic within a few hundred nm
of the surface ridge axis. East of 65W, a ridge extends from
1023 mb high pressure near 31N30W westward to South Florida. The
subtropical ridge dominates north of 20N. Fresh to locally
strong N to NE winds are noted off the northwest coast of
Africa, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally
fresh trade winds are south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
For the forecast, the cold front will move from 29N65W to 28N70W
to Stuart, Florida this evening. The front will stall and weaken
early Sun and dissipate late Sun. Fresh winds are expected N of
the front today. S of the front a weak high pressure ridge
extends from the central Atlantic W-SW into the Bahamas and will
persist east of the area through Sun. High pressure will
reorganize across the W Atlantic Mon and Tue leading to moderate
to fresh southerly winds W of 75W.
$$
MTorres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 2 07:39:00 2021
548
AXNT20 KNHC 021028
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 07N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
01N30W TO 01S35W to 02S42W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection prevails between Africa and South America, generally
from 05S-06N.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A squall line has formed in the NW Gulf, and extends from the
Louisiana coast near 30N92W to 24N96W as of 0900 UTC. Strong
thunderstorms are within 30 nm of the squall line. The
thunderstorms are being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, due
to the positioning of a mid-upper level shortwave trough over
Texas. The squall line will shift eastward to the north-central
Gulf of Mexico by early afternoon today. Some of these storms
could be severe, with strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and
isolated waterspouts.
Elsewhere, fresh SE winds are noted to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gentle E-SE winds are east of 86W. Gentle wind speeds
are also in the SW Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail from the NW
Yucatan to the Texas/Louisiana border, with 3-4 ft seas over the
west-central and SW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.
Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow
will prevail early this week over much of the basin, with
occasional locally strong SE winds over the south-central and SW
Gulf Mon night and Tue. A weak cold front will sink slowly into
the NW Gulf Tue evening and reach SE Louisiana to the W Bay of
Campeche Wed night before stalling and weakening.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Subsidence and dry air cover the Caribbean Sea, as shown by
GOES-16 water vapor channels. There may be isolated showers over
the far SE Caribbean, close to the coast of Venezuela. Isolated
showers and tstorms are noted in the far SW Caribbean south 11N to
Panama and NW Colombia. An isolated shower is also noted near the
Tiburon Peninsula of SW Haiti. The remainder of the Caribbean is
free of any precipitation due to the dry air.
An earlier ASCAT pass showed moderate trades across most of the
Caribbean, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba and
gentle NE-E winds in the far SW Caribbean. The ASCAT pass missed
the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh E winds are likely occurring.
Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
Fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through
today before increasing to fresh to strong tonight through Wed
night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge
and lower pressures over Central America. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through today,
becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean throughout
the coming week. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW
Gulf of Honduras from agricultural fires in Central America.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through 31N56W to 27N62W to 27N76W. A
stationary front continues W along 27N to West Palm Beach Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 45 nm of the
front mainly east of 59W. Moderate E winds are north of this
front. A surface ridge axis with light to gentle winds is located
to the south of the front from 23N-27N. The ridge axis extends
from the NW Bahamas east to 25N71W to 26N54W to a 1024 mb high
pressure near 30N38W. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of 28N
between 50W-76W, while 2-4 ft seas prevail east of the Bahamas and
north of the Caribbean.
For the forecast west of 65W, the front will weaken as it stalls
along 27N this morning. The frontal remnants will then drift N
this afternoon and gradually dissipate this evening. The high
pressure ridge south of the front will persist east of 75W through
today. High pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc Mon and
Tue leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds N of 25N and W of
75W, and moderate to fresh tradewinds S of 24N.
Farther east, a weak upper-level low near 26N42W is producing some
showers. Moderate trade winds prevail from 07N-22N across the
tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Strong N
winds are occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco, where
seas are 8-9 ft. These winds will persist through Mon.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 2 15:09:00 2021
674
AXNT20 KNHC 021801
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails between
Africa and South America, generally from 05S-07N E of 25W, and
scattered showers W of 25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, the squall line over the northern Gulf has
weaken. Strong thunderstorms can not be ruled out for this
afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe, with strong
wind gusts, frequent lightning and isolated waterspouts. A
surface trough has been analyzed from the Louisiana coast near
30N90W to 245N92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
within 30 nm of the trough. The thunderstorms are being enhanced
by upper-level diffluence, due to the positioning of a mid-upper
level shortwave trough over Texas.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted over the
western Gulf and fresh SE winds NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle E-SE winds are east of 86W. Gentle wind speeds are also
in the SW Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail from the NW Yucatan to
the Texas/Louisiana border, with 3-4 ft seas over the west-
central and SW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.
Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early this week over
much of the basin, with occasional locally strong SE winds over
the south-central and SW Gulf Mon night and Tue. Thunderstorms
associated could be strong to severe with gusty winds. Areas of
smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural
fires in SE Mexico. Fresh to strong SE return flow will prevail
through Tue night over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will
sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue night and reach from Louisiana
to the SW Gulf Wed night before stalling and weakening.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Subsidence and dry air cover the Caribbean Sea, as shown by
GOES-16 water vapor channels. There are scattered showers over
the far SE Caribbean, from a line extending from the coast of
Venezuela to Guadeloupe Island. Isolated showers and tstorms are
noted in the far SW Caribbean south 11N to the coast of Panama
and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean is free of
precipitation due to the dry air. ASCAT pass showed moderate
trades across most of the Caribbean, except for light to gentle
winds in the lee of Cuba and gentle NE-E winds in the far SW
Caribbean. The ASCAT pass missed the Gulf of Honduras, where
fresh E winds are likely occurring. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge is over Bermuda is contributing to
fresh E to SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras today. These winds
should increase up to strong tonight through Wed night as the
pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressures over Central America. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue elsewhere across the basin through at least Thu night.
Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf of Honduras
from agricultural fires in Central America.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through 29N54W to 26N60W to 28N74W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to 29N80W and continues across
the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are within 45 nm of the front mainly east
of 60W. Moderate N winds are north of this front E of 57W. Two
surface ridge axis are located to the north and southeast of the
front. The ridge axis to the east extends from 57W to 19W. Ridge
E of 60W, light easterly winds are noted with seas 4 to 6 ft
south of 28N and 8-9 ft north of 29N. In the western Atlantic
near the coast of FL and the Bahamas, seas remain around 2 to 4
ft.
For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening cold front is
stalling today. The frontal remnants will then drift northward
and gradually dissipate tonight. South of the front, high
pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc Mon and Tue leading
to moderate to fresh S winds north of 25N and west of 75W, and
moderate to fresh SE tradewinds south of 24N. These winds will
relax to gentle to moderate on Wed and Thu.
Farther east, a weak upper-level low near 27N40W is producing
some showers. Moderate trade winds prevail from 07N-22N across
the tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Strong
N winds are occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco,
where seas are 8-9 ft. These winds will persist through Mon.
$$
MTorres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 3 17:42:00 2021
967
AXNT20 KNHC 032130 AAA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2130 UTC Mon May 3 2021
Updated Caribbean Sea section to include mention of smoke
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from through coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 02N20W to 01N29W, where recent
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions the ITCZ to
01N40W and to 02N50W. Numerous strong convection is from the
Equator to 07N E of 14W. Numerous moderate to strong within within
180 nm north of trough between 13W-17W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of axis between
20W-25W and within 120 nm north of trough between 25W-29W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The gradient between high pressure near Bermuda and low pressure
over the south-central U.S. is producing moderate to fresh
southeast to south winds over the area, with a small area of
strong southeast SE winds to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, on average, except for 5-7 ft
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and 1-3 ft east of 85W. No
significant precipitation is currently occurring over the basin.
Low stratus clouds and areas of haze are seen in the NW Gulf
extending about 120 nm offshore from the coast of Texas, reducing
visibilities to 2-4 miles in some spots.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong southeast to south
will prevail through Tue over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front
will cross the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from the Louisiana
coast to the SW Gulf on Wed before stalling and weakening. Fresh
northerly winds will briefly develop behind this front Tue night
into Wed over the far western Gulf. Another weak cold front may
cross the northern Gulf Thu night into Fri before stalling and
weakening over the central Gulf.
CARIBBEAN SEA...Updated
A mid-level ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles is
producing subsidence and very dry air over the Caribbean Sea north
of about 14N as shown by GOES-16 water vapor channels. In the
southwestern Caribbean satellite imagery shows scattered showers
and thunderstorms south of 13N W of 80W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south of 11N between the coast of
Colombia and 80W. The tail-end of an upper-level trough in
combination with modest low-level convergence is helping to
trigger off a small area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection over the southeastern Caribbean that includes
the southern Windward Islands as reported in recent surface
observations from that part of the sea.
Recent ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across
the basin, with the exception of fresh, to at times, strong
southeast to south winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh east
winds are noted within 120 nm offshore the coast of Colombia
between 72W- 76W. Seas are 3-5 ft across most of the basin, except
5-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft south of Cuba and in
the far southwestern Caribbean.
Dense smoke from agricultural fires in northern Honduras and in
Belize is noted on GOES-16 to be spreading northward over the
Gulf of Honduras and to just northeast of Belize. Visibility may
be reduced due to the smoke.
For the forecast, a western Atlantic high pressure ridge along
27N-28N will support moderate to fresh trades across much of the
basin this week. Fresh to strong south SE winds with locally
higher seas will change little over the Gulf of Honduras through
Wed night, then begin to diminish through Fri as the pressure
gradient relaxes across the region.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Recent ASCAT data depicts a surface ridge that extends from a
1025 mb high center located north of the area near 34N41W west-
southwestward to 28N73W and to central Florida. The ASCAT data
also shows generally light to gentle winds north of 25N between
37W- 75W. Higher wind speeds of moderate to fresh intensity are
north of 25N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
south of 22N west of 63W and over some areas south E of 63W.
Seas west of 63W are 3-5 ft, and 4-6 ft east of 63W. Farther
east, a stationary front extends from near 32N49W to 29N55W, then
begins to dissipate to near 28N63W. A rather sharp upper-level
trough over this same area is enhancing convection east of the
front north of 29N between 46W-49W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are within 150 nm south of the front between 49W-
54W. Seas north of 27N between 45W-60W have subsided to 5-6 ft
as the northwest there decays. A 1018 mb low is near 32N24W,
with an occluded front extending from it to 31N22W, then
transitions to a cold front to 28N33W and to 27N25W, where it
begins to dissipate to near 27N29W. An ASCAT pass over that part
of the Atlantic has mainly fresh southeast to south winds ahead
of the cold front north of 30N and east to 21W. Isolated showers
are possible near the cold front.
For the forecast, the western Atlantic high pressure ridge
will generally support moderate winds through Wed, with locally
fresh winds north of Hispaniola. A cold front is expected to move
off the southeastern U.S. coast Wed night into Thu, then move
across the waters north of 24N through Fri night while gradually
weakening. In the far eastern Atlantic, north to northeast winds
will increase to fresh to strong speeds through Wed night offshore
Morocco and Western Sahara, occasionally reaching near gale force
off Morocco.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue May 4 14:39:00 2021
706
AXNT20 KNHC 041520
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N14W to 04N24W to 03S30W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to
03S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
located from 02N-08N between 07W-17W. Scattered moderate
convection is located from 00N-06N between 17W-29W, and from
01N-07N between 35W-44W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong SE-S winds are in the central Gulf north of 22N,
and in the southwest Gulf, with moderate to fresh return flow
elsewhere west of 87W. Gentle to moderate return flow is noted
east of 87W. Seas are 5-8 ft west of 87W, and 3-6 ft east of 87W.
No significant precipitation is currently occurring across the
region. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at times over
the western and central Gulf.
Fresh to strong southeast winds will continue over the central
Gulf today ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move
off the Texas coast this afternoon, stall over the northern Gulf
through Wed night, then move southeastward across the rest of the
basin Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are
expected across the western and central Gulf this weekend as high
pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western
Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting
fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean.
Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the
Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the northwest Caribbean and 3-6 ft
elsewhere. The northeast Pacific monsoon trough extends across
Panama and northwest Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring south of 12N and west of 77W as well
as south of 13N between 58W-65W. Smoke and haze from agricultural
and wildfires over Central America are reducing visibilities
below 7 nm in the Gulf of Honduras.
A ridge north of the area will support moderate trades across
much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist
over the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras,
through mid-week. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke are
possible in the northwest Caribbean from agricultural fires in
Central America. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central
Caribbean this weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak low to mid level feature is supporting a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms from 27N-29N between 76W-80W. Surface ridging
extends westward from 1026 mb high pressure north of the area near
34N45W to central Florida. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
generally moderate. A weak trough extends from 31N48W to 28N55W
with a few showers. Another surface trough extends from 31N28W to
21N33W with scattered showers on either side of the trough. Seas
are generally 4-7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic, except 2-4 ft
north of 27N and west of 60W.
West of 65W, a ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate winds
across most of the region through mid-week. A cold front is
expected to move east of northern Florida Thu night, then move
across the waters north of 24N through Sat while gradually
weakening.
East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish
Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally
be 3-6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep
convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed May 5 14:40:00 2021
404
AXNT20 KNHC 051757
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 05 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of western Africa
near 09N14W to 04N20W to 00N34W. The ITCZ begins near 00N34W and
continues to 01N42W to near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 00N to 08N E of 20W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from 29N91W to 24N98W. Scattered showers
are within 60 n mi of the front, and moderate northeasterly
winds are noted west of the front. A surface trough extends from
28N92W through a 1010 mb low centered near 21N95W to 18N94W.
A weak diurnal surface trough is over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Neither of these features are producing significant
convection. Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural
fires over southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the
SW Gulf of Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to
continue for several more days. Across the remainder of the Gulf
basin, generally fair weather prevails with gentle to moderate
winds.
The cold front will become stationary over the northern Gulf
this afternoon. High pressure building in behind it will act to
push the eastern part of the front to the far eastern Gulf by
early Fri evening. Mooderate to fresh southeast winds are
expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend and into
early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Generally moderate to locally fresh easterly trades cover the
majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are
likely still continuing north of Honduras in the NW
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery
shows a line of moderate showers, associated with the monsoon
trough that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama
to northern Colombia, continues over the southwest Caribbean S
of 11N. Scattered patches of showers embedded in the trade winds
are noted mainly E of 77W.
The ridge north of the area will support moderate
trade winds over much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE
winds will continue in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of
Honduras, through tonight. Hazy sky conditions and areas of
smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are expected
to continue through the end of the week. Stronger trades are
likely in the central Caribbean on Sun as high pressure builds
to the north.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 35N23W, 34N37W,
and a 1024 mb high near 27N61W. This ridge is responsible
for a large, expansive area of gentle to moderate winds, 2 to 4
ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western
Atlantic Ocean, north of 15N-20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south
of 15N-20N. The only other surface feature of note is a trough
over the eastern Atlantic that extends from 31N32W to 27N34W,
generating scattered showers.
The ridge along 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across
most of the region through tonight. A cold front will move over
the northwest waters Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the
Straits of Florida on Fri. The northern part of the front will
continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through
Sat night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build
along 31N in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge
will shift eastward Mon as another cold front approaches the far
NW waters.
$$
Latto
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri May 7 12:50:00 2021
459
AXNT20 KNHC 071729
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to
03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 01S46W along coastal
Brazil. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
located east of 05W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to
07N between 15W and 22W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the Florida peninsula near 27N82W to
the W Gulf near 23N96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the
Florida Keys in the Gulf west-southwestward to 24N87W. Winds are
light to gentle south of the front and moderate northeasterlies
north of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf. Scattered
showers exist within 60 nmi of the front and the trough. SAB
analysis of satellite imagery indicates light to medium smoke
south of 27N and west of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico from
agricultural and wildfires fires in southern Mexico.
A cold front across the eastern Gulf will push southward east of
90W through tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected
in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky
conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are
likely across the SW Gulf for several more days.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1025 mb Bermuda High has shifted east-southeastward to 28N44W
in response to a cold front north of the Bahamas. The reduced
pressure gradient is forcing only fresh E trades north of
Colombia and light to gentle E trades elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and
only 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with
the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica
near 10N83W to 10N77W.
A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over
most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across
the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the
north.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 55W, a surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb Bermuda High west-southwestward to 25N77W. A cold front extends from 31N75W
to the Florida peninsula at 26N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 28N78W to the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection
is noted north of 27N between 75W and 78W. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are occurring within 60 nmi of the front and the trough.
SW winds north of 28N ahead of the front are fresh to strong,
while NW winds north of 29N behind the front are also fresh to
strong. Elsewhere the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3
to 5 ft north and east of the Bahamas and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N between 50W
and 60W.
The cold front will move across south Florida later today. The
northern part of the front will shift eastward across the
northern waters through Sat night. A cold front will move south
of 30N into the waters east of Florida Tue night.
East of 55W, a surface ridge extends between 1025 mb Bermuda
High at 28N44W to 31N25W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N and 4 to
7 ft south of 20N. No significant deep convection is occurring
away from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. As the Bermuda High builds in
place, trades will strengthen to fresh to strong Sat to Mon
before relaxing again on Tue. Seas will increase slightly in
response. On Mon and Tue a N swell will build seas north of 20N
to 6 to 8 ft.
$$
Landsea
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 9 12:04:00 2021
177
AXNT20 KNHC 091021
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enter the Atlantic ocean through northern
Guinea near 11N15W, then continues SW to near 02N28W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N28W to 01N33W to 02N40W to 00N50W. A cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the W coast
of Africa covering the waters from 05N-09N between 11W-14W.
Similar convection can be found from 00N-04N between 23W-28W, and
from 02N-04N between 40W-52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored on a 1021 mb high
pressure located east of NE Florida. A surface trough has developed
near the NW Yucatan peninsula. Under this pattern, mainly moderate
to fresh SE return flow prevails over the west-central and NW
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds are near and ahead of the surface
trough, and mainly gentle winds are noted over the eastern Gulf.
Scatterometer data also suggest the presence of another trough
just W of Florida along 82W/83W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
observed on the E side of the trough affecting the waters from the
Florida Keys northward to about 26N. Seas are generally 4-6 ft W
of 90W, and 2-4 ft E of 90W, except 1-2 ft in the NE part of the
Gulf. A few clouds are noted, particularly across the western
Gulf in a moist SE flow.
The pressure gradient between the ridge across the Gulf region
and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support fresh
to locally strong SE return flow across the NW Gulf today. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and
dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds will be associated with this trough. Light hazy
conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are
likely across much of the Gulf today. A stationary front will
linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers
occurring along the boundary. Building high pressure across the SE
CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Thu.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh
to strong trade winds across parts of the east and south-central
Caribbean, mainly from 11N to 14N between 66W and 76W. The aerial
extent and strength of the trades will increase tonight and Mon as
high pressure builds N of the basin. During this period, winds of
20-30 kt are expected with building seas of 8-11 ft. A recent
altimeter pass shows seas to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia.
Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of
Honduras through Thu night
Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers, is affecting the
eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over southern Haiti. Elsewhere, shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move
across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
A diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of a deepening mid to upper-level
trough over the central Caribbean is helping to induce the clouds
and shower activity over the eastern Caribbean. A good amount of
moisture will persist over this region today and Mon, and will
reach Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgins Islands later today,
increasing the likelihood of showers. Moisture will spread over
Hispaniola later on Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of 60W: A cold front stretches from 31N62W to 27N68W where
it becomes stationary to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida. A few showers are along the frontal boundary, especially
between Andros Island and the Florida Keys. A 1021 mb surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic waters near NE Florida extends
a narrow ridge eastward over the waters to the north of the NW
Bahamas, producing light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow.
The stationary part of the front will weaken today as the cold
front continues to move across the Atlantic before it dissipates
by Mon evening. Another cold front will clip the northern forecast
waters on Wed, and stall on Thu. Then, the front will move southward
across the region as a low develops along the frontal boundary,
and moves NE.
East of 60W: The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
under the influence of a ridge. A mid to upper-level low is
centered near 25N45W generating some shower activity from 22N to
28N between 38W-45W. A surface trough extends from 29N27W to
27N35W to 28N44W. Satellite derived wind data show moderate to
fresh trade winds across the southern periphery of the ridge,
mainly from 10N-24N E of 35W toward the W coast of Africa, and
from 03N- 20N W of 35W. Patches of low level clouds are seen
across the tropical Atlantic.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 9 14:58:00 2021
454
AXNT20 KNHC 091721
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through central Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 01N25W to 01N35W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 180 n mi N of the ITCZ
and within 150 n mi of either side of the monsoon trough.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1025 mb high
pressure located east of NE Florida. A weakening surface trough
is propagating NW over the Bay of Campeche producing locally fresh
winds. Generally moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern
half of the Gulf basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are
noted over the western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas
are generally 4 to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 7 feet over the
NW Gulf. East of 90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some showers
near the Florida Keys, fair weather continues over the entire
Gulf today.
The pressure gradient between a ridge across the
Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will
support fresh to locally strong SE return flow across the NW
Gulf today. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this
trough. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf
coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary.
Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front
across the Gulf on Thu.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scatterometer data from late this morning indicates fresh to
locally strong E to NE trades are occurring over the south-
central Caribbean Sea, particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W.
Generally moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. A
surface trough extends from 17N64W to 10N65W and is interacting
with a diffluent pattern aloft to support scattered moderate
convection S of 14N between 62W and 70W, and scattered showers
within 150 n mi of the trough axis N of 14N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft
over the south- central Caribbean Sea, and mainly 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere.
A ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu
night. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf
of Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture will increase
the likelihood of showers across the eastern Caribbean through
Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A dying frontal boundary extends into the area of discussion near
31N61W and continues to near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 n mi of the front.
1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N69W producing light to gentle
winds N of 29N W of 70W. Mainly moderate winds are noted elsewhere
W of 70W. A broad ridge of high pressure anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered near 33N44W dominates much of the remainder of the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic basin, producing moderate to
fresh trades S of 24N, and mostly gentle to moderate winds N of
24N. The only other notable features in the area are a surface
trough extending from 25N30W to 27N42W producing isolated moderate
convection, and a dissipating stationary front along 31N between
15W and 25W. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft
S of 24N.
The dying front is expected to completely dissipate by tonight
into Mon morning. Another cold front will move southward across
the western Atlantic on Wed, and stall on Thu. The front will then
move southward across the region as a low develops along the
frontal boundary and moves NE.
$$
Latto
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue May 11 14:44:00 2021
551
AXNT20 KNHC 111732
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.
...Special Features...
Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
strong winds N of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W
Africa. Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for Agadir from
11/12Z through 12/12Z. The forecast calls for northerly winds
Force 8 in the Beaufort Wind Scale with gusts and at times very
rough seas.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 07N19W to 02N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N26W to 00N32W to 00N43W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along
and south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 07N between 11W to
21W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough
and ITCZ from 00N to 09N between 20W to 30W and from 02S to 03N
between 35W to the coast of Brazil.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico. A
quasi-stationary front extends along the north-central and
northwest Gulf coast. This is a focal point for convection
particularly along the north-central Gulf Coast. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted N of 29N between 86W to
91W. There is another area of scattered moderate convection in
the SW Gulf, S of 22N between 95W to 97W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in
the western Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf.
Seas range 3-6 ft.
A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters today producing moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds across the western half of the
Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern half.
A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A
frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf coast
through tonight. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will
push a late-season cold front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is
expected to extend across the Straits of Florida and the
southern Gulf by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A diffluent pattern aloft east of an upper-level trough axis
continues to support showers across the eastern Caribbean,
especially portions of the Lesser Antilles into Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Farther south, scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of
Nicaragua southward into Panama. This convection is noted S of
12N between 80W to 84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong winds north of Colombia with fresh winds across the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in
the eastern Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades are in the NW
basin with the stronger winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
range 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean. In the
south-central region, seas range 6-11 ft and upwards of 7 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras.
High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are
also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed
night. A moisture surge will continue to affect parts of the
east and central Caribbean today while gradually diminishing.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning near Agadir.
W of 65W: High pressure extends across most of the western
Atlantic. A surface trough extends southward to the central
Florida coast from 31N79W to 28N80W. Showers are noted near the
NE Florida coast. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted
across the region with seas 3-5 ft.
A cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on
Wed. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal
boundary allowing the front to move across the northern forecast
waters Thu and Fri, reaching the waters S of 27N on Sat. High
pressure will follow the front.
E of 65W: A ridge will continue to dominate this area today. Two
troughs are located in the central and eastern Atlantic. The
first one extends from 29N50W to 26N53W. The other extends from
31N32W to 25N35W. No significant convection is associated with
these features. Light to gentle winds are noted across the area
with seas 5-7 ft.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed May 12 17:41:00 2021
966
AXNT20 KNHC 121745
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 12 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...Special Features...
Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to
strong N to NE winds north of 20N and within about 150 NM of the
coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has
continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through 13/12Z. The forecast
calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to
the coast with rough to very rough seas.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The ITCZ extends from 02N41W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W.
There is not oceanic monsoon trough today. A surface trough
extends from 03N24W to 06N20W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 03N to 06N between 20W and 30W as well as from 00N
to 03N west of 37W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the coast of Louisiana
near 29N91W to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. Pre-frontal
troughs are present from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W to
29N88W as well as 25N94W to 21N97W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring from 23N to 25N west of
94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 28N
between 88W and 92W. Winds across most of the Gulf ahead of the
front are SE light to moderate, except for fresh SE winds in the
SW Gulf. Winds north of the cold front are NE gentle to
moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central and W Gulf, and only
2 to 3 ft in the E Gulf. Smoke and haze from agricultural and
wild fires in Mexico and Central America are reducing
visibilities slightly over the SW Gulf of Mexico, though this
may mix out with the shower and thunderstorm activity in the
area.
The cold front will push southward in the western Gulf later
today, then gradually stall and weaken across the southern Gulf
through Fri. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected
across the basin Fri through Sun.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to a
1009 mb low over Colombia is contributing to strong NE to E
trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh to moderate to
fresh E trades elsewhere. Scattered showers are present in the
SW Caribbean south of 12N in association with the NE Pacific
monsoon trough that extends across Costa Rica and Panama to
coastal Colombia near 10N76W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over S central
Caribbean and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere.
High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.
Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb Bermuda/Azores High at
35N28W west-southwestward to 28N80W. E to NE trades south of the
ridge are only light to moderate. No significant deep convection
is noted away from the ITCZ, though scattered showers are
present from 20N to 27N between 32W to 42W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
across the tropical N Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near Bermuda to
South Florida by early Fri, from 31N65W to the Straits of
Florida by early Sat, before stalling north of Hispaniola
through Sun.
For the forecast east of 55W, little change to winds or seas are
expected through Fri night. Beginning Sat morning, a cold front
will move across the waters north of 27N and reach 52W by Sun
night. Winds on both sides of the front will be fresh to strong
and seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere a reduced pressure gradient
will weaken the trades across the Atlantic on Sat and Sun.
$$
Landsea
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu May 13 15:44:00 2021
823
AXNT20 KNHC 131756
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 13 2021
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1745 UTC.
...Special Features...
Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support
gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France
has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through at least 14/12Z.
The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally
gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to
07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 01N40W to the mouth of
the Amazon River near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02S to 06N between 20W to 50W, while a few scattered
showers linger N of the monsoon trough near the coast of Africa.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front passes through the Florida Peninsula to the south
of the Big Bend area of Florida, then westward to 90W. It
transitions to a stationary front across the western Gulf to
near Veracruz, Mexico. A surface trough is also observed ahead
of the front near 24N90W to 17N93W. Numerous showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms are noted along the surface trough
and scattered moderate showers are along the frontal boundary.
Scattered showers and multi-layered overcast skies prevail
across most of the Gulf of Mexico, south and east of the frontal
boundary. ASCAT data this morning showed fresh northerly winds
along the coast of Mexico west of the front, and moderate to
fresh northerly winds north of the front off the coast of
Mississippi. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft
in the eastern Gulf.
In the forecast, the cold front will reach Naples, Florida to
25N94W to Veracruz Mexico Fri, then it stalls from the Straits
of Florida into the west-central Gulf Fri night then lift
northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly
flow will persist over most areas into early next week as high
pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The monsoon trough is across Panama and Costa Rica. No organized
areas of convection are noted in the region, only isolated
passing showers in the prevailing trade wind flow. The pressure
gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to lower pressure
over Colombia is contributing fresh to strong NE to E trades
over the south-central Caribbean and fresh to moderate trade
winds elsewhere, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to
11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5 to 6 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the high
pressure shifts eastward and weakens.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.
A cold front extends west-southwestward from low pressure of
1016 mb near 34N60W southwestward to near Jacksonville, Florida.
Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms associated
with the front are noted north of 28N between 73W and 81W. Multi-
layered overcast skies prevail W of 66W and north of the
northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE
winds north of the front. Elsewhere, a broad ridge and fair
weather conditions span across the entire subtropical Atlantic
Ocean. The ridge axis extends from high pressure near 32N30W to
26N64W to 20N40W. Winds are light to gentle in the vicinity of
the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh trade winds are generally
south of 20N across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 7-8 ft north
of the cold front, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-7 ft
south of 20N.
In the forecast, the cold front will extend from Bermuda to South
Florida Fri, and from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida Sat. The
front will stall and dissipate north of Hispaniola Sun and Mon.
$$
Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 15 08:50:00 2021
595
AXNT20 KNHC 150952
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING: A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR
area, has been issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are
forecast to be present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000
UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 07N40W,
then continues along the Equator/01S, from 40W to 47W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06.5N
between 07W and 24W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 00N to 06.5N between 30W and 51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A dissipating cold front passes through the western Straits of
Florida, to 24N95W. A surface trough continues from 24N95W and
curves to the northern coastal areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. A surface trough is in the coastal plains and
the coastal waters of the western sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds prevail within
150 nm N of the front across the Gulf, and across the waters
within 180 nm of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is seen across
the Bay of Campeche south of 20N, and across western portions from
21.5N to 24.5N west of 94.5W to the Mexican coast.
The current dissipating stationary front from the Straits of
Florida to 24N95W will lift slowly northward and dissipate through
Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist over most areas
through Tue as high pressure builds north of the area.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Panama about 80 nm to the north of its border with Colombia,
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An
upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to central
Nicaragua. An upper level trough passes through 17N60W in the
Atlantic Ocean, toward the ABC Islands. Drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 12N northward from 75W
eastward and is producing stable weather conditions generally east
of 80W. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail across south central
portions of the basin south of 14.5N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the Gulf of Honduras south of 16.5N.
The current Atlantic Ocean high pressure ridge, that is extending
W-SW to the central Bahamas, will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish late Sat through Mon as the high pressure
shifts eastward and weakens. Tradewinds will increase across the
south-central Caribbean late Mon through Wed as high pressure
builds across the W Atlc.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR area, has been
issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are forecast to be
present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000 UTC.
A dissipating cold front passes through 31N62W to 28.5N74W ,
through the far northern Bahamas and extreme SE Florida and
through the Straits of Florida. Winds are generally E around 15 kt
north of the front and east of 75W, while a surge of NNE winds
around 20 kt was captured by overnight scatterometer data offshore
of NE Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina to the west of 77W.
Seas there are 8-9 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are seen
elsewhere W of 65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
north of 27N between 56W and 66W, on either side of the front.
A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center near
32N32W to the central Bahamas. This broad ridge is supporting
moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Tropical Atlantic south of
21N, where seas are 6-8 ft.
The current cold front will sink slowly southeastward and weaken
through Mon, and dissipate late Mon as it becomes E to W aligned
along 25N. Winds will increase north of 25N and west of 70W late
Tue through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 15 18:55:00 2021
299
AXNT20 KNHC 152229
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
East Atlantic Gale Warning: A recent ASCAT pass depicts gale
force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco, north of 30.5N and
east of 12W, in the Agadir marine area. The forecast from Meteo-
France calls for a continuation of gale force winds in this area
through 16/0000 this evening. After that time, winds will subside
to about 25 kt.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 05N34W to 07N44W. A
westward moving surface trough extends from 07N46W to 03N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 09N and west of
30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf of Mexico from
19N94W to 22N98W. CIRA layered precipitable water imagery and
GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor channels indicate abundant
moisture over the W Gulf. As a result, scattered showers are
occurring west of 94W. A 1025 mb high pressure centered over
North Carolina and Georgia is spreading ridging over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail over
the basin, with seas of 4-6 ft.
High pressure over the Gulf waters will support a continuation
of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over most areas through Tue.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Weak mid to upper level ridging prevails across the Caribbean,
which is keeping subsidence and relatively dry air across the
basin, with little to no significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT
pass depicts moderate to fresh trades across the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the NW portion of the
basin. Seas are 7-9 ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean,
4-6 ft over the eastern and north-central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft
in the NW portion of the basin.
The Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the area will shift
eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas tonight through
Mon. Trade winds will increase across the south-central Caribbean
late Mon through Wed as high pressure builds across the W
Atlantic.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the far eastern Atlantic near the
coast of Morocco. See the Special Features section above for
details.
A cold front extends from a 1017 mb surface low centered near
30N62W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are near and within 90 nm SE
of the front. The latest ASCAT pass depicts mainly gentle to
moderate winds on both sides of the front. However, fresh NE
winds prevail east of northern Florida, mainly north of 28N and
west of 77W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring to the NW of
the low pressure, mainly north of 31N. Seas are 6-8 ft east of
Florida and 5-7 ft across the remainder of the western Atlantic,
to the E and NE of the Bahamas. To the east, surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered near 33N28W. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds
prevail from the Canary Islands to Morocco, with seas of 8-12 ft.
Seas are 4-6 ft over the central subtropical Atlantic north of
20N, with gentle winds. Seas are 6-8 ft over the tropical
Atlantic south of 20N, with moderate to fresh trades
The front will dissipate west of 65W by Sunday. Winds will
increase north of 25N and west of 70W late Tue through Wed as
high pressure builds across the W Atlantic.
$$
ERA
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From
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All on Sun May 16 07:05:00 2021
712
AXNT20 KNHC 161020
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 10N14W to 05N25W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 02N39W to 04N47W. A surface
trough is along 49W/50W from the Equator to 09N. Scattered
moderate to strong is from 03N to the monsoon trough between 08N
and 25N, and within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 25W and
45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
1024 mb high pressure centered over coastal Georgia extends SW to
the central Gulf, producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds across
the basin. A small area of strong easterly winds continues to
shift westward away from the Florida coast, across the Big Bend
region. Low level moisture embedded in the SE return flow across W
portions of the Gulf is producing broken multilayered clouds, and
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of the
coasts of Texas and Mexico north of 21.5N.
The high pressure across Georgia will shift slowly into the
western Atlc through Tue to support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds over the basin. Active weather will continue across the NW
Gulf today. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue
through Thu as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 11N74W through
the Colombia/Panama border and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. A
middle to upper level trough extends from the central Tropical
Atlantic SW to the central Caribbean along 75W, producing fair
weather. At the surface high pressure centered across the NE
Atlantic extends W-SW to the southern Bahamas and is supporting
fresh to strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean
south of 14N. Gentle to model trades prevail elsewhere. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 120
nm of the coast of Nicaragua, and across the Yucatan Channel to
the Isle of Youth, Cuba.
The current Atlantic Ocean ridge will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly tonight through Mon. Trade
winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Thu night as high
pressure builds across the W Atlc.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
A dissipating cold front passes through 31N53W to 28.5N60W to
the central Bahamas near 24N76W. 1015 mb low pressure is just
north of the area near 32N68W and is helping to produce moderate
to locally fresh N to NE wind to the north of the front, where
seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE wind swell. The low is forecast to shift
E-NE during the next 24-36 hours and intensify, to produce gale-
force northerly winds across its western semicircle. This will
continue to spread moderate to large NE winds into the northern
waters behind the front. Scattered moderate convection is seen
along and within 150 nm SE of the front to the north of 25N.
To the east of the front, a surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb
high pressure center near 33N27W to 24N70W. This broad ridge is
supporting moderate tradewinds across the Atlantic south of 20N
where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
The current weakening frontal boundary will drift SE and dissipate
through Tue. Winds will increase north of 24N and west of 68W
late Tue through Thu as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.
$$
Stripling
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From
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All on Mon May 17 13:19:00 2021
650
AXNT20 KNHC 171643
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO...
A strong pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Azores High near
33N27W and lower pressures over NW Africa will support developing
gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is
called AGADIR. The gale-force winds are forecast to start at
17/1500 UTC, and end possibly at 18/0600 UTC. Seas are forecast
to range from 9 to 12 feet.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N15W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to
03N61 along the coast of NE Brazil. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N and east of 23W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and
west of 35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge over the SE United States along with a trough over
N central Mexico is producing E to SE moderate to fresh winds
across the Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 NM of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the week.
This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin
through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue
through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1027 mb Bermuda High centered near 38N70W along with a 1010 mb
Colombian Low near 10N76W is contributing to fresh to strong NE
to E trades in the S central Caribbean and gentle to moderate E
trades elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the S central Caribbean
and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. The tail end of a shear line extends
across central Cuba to 21N83W and is causing scattered showers
from 20N to 22N between 78W and 83W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 10N in the SW Caribbean.
The Bermuda High NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and
weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade
winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
A cold front extends southwestward from a 1006 mb low at 32N53W
to 25N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N67W,
where it transitions to a shear line to central Cuba. Winds north
of 28N behind the front are NW fresh to strong, while ahead of the
front are SW to W fresh to near gale. Seas in these winds are 8
to 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of
the front east of 60W, while scattered showers are occurring
within 60 NM of the front/shear line west of 60W. A ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb Azores High at 33N27W to 22N65W. NE
to E trades south of the ridge are moderate to fresh. Elsewhere
winds across the tropical N Atlantic are light to moderate with
seas of 4 to 7 ft.
For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening frontal boundary from
25N65W to the central Bahamas will drift SE and dissipate through
late Tue. Its remnants will drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure
gradient between high pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal
boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N
of 23N and W of 68W with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue
through Fri.
For the forecast east of 65W, the strong to near gale winds
associated with the cold front will lift north of the area by late
Tue. Swells of 8 to 10 ft will continue north of 27N east of 65W
through Wed night. NE to E trades south of 20N will continue as
moderate to fresh for the next several days.
$$
Landsea
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From
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All on Tue May 18 14:59:00 2021
885
AXNT20 KNHC 181756
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO...
The surface pressure gradient between the 1026 mb Azores high
pressure center that is near 35N22W and the comparatively lower
surface pressures in West Africa is supporting gale-force winds
in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The
sea heights there are ranging from 9 to 11 feet. The winds are
forecast to diminish below gale-force at 19/0000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 03N36W to
the NE coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 05W and 24W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the ITCZ
between 37W to 49W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Weak surface ridging continues across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico due to high pressure located over the mid-Atlantic
states. An ASCAT pass at 1500 UTC revealed fresh SE winds across
most of the basin associated with the pressure gradient. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft across the basin.
A broad area of diffluence and middle level troughing over the
Gulf continues to interact with the moist return flow at low
levels and is producing clusters of strong convection across SW
Louisiana and within 150 nm offshore SE of the Louisiana and
Mississippi coastlines. A similar area of scattered convection
is north of the Yucatan Channel from 22N-25N between 85W-88W.
For the forecast, high pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts
extending SW to the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary
throughout the week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
today through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains and northern Mexico.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure across the NE Atlantic extends W-SW across the
central Atlantic and weakly north of the NE Caribbean. The
associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to fresh
tradewinds across the basin. Generally fair weather prevails
across most of the basin under the stable influence of an upper
level ridge. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen across
the coastal waters of Cuba, north of 20N, due to associated
moisture from a stationary front extending from the central
Bahamasacross central Cuba. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over most of the
basin, the exception being off Colombia and NW Venezuela where
seas are 5 to 7 ft.
The monsoon trough extends into the basin from the eastern
Pacific ocean through Panama. Scattered strong convection is
within 100 nm offshore of Panama and NW Colombia.
For the forecast, the high pressure across the NE Atlc will
maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin through
Wed. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Sat
night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras
mainly at night through Thu night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
A lingering cold front extends from 31N44W to 25N54W to 24N55W
then becomes stationary to the central Bahamas to central Cuba.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the
front. High pressure over the middle Atlantic coasts is
supporting moderate to fresh E-NE winds to the north of the
stationary front and west of 55W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. East
of 50W, winds ahead of the cold front are fresh to locally
strong from the S-SW.
For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will
gradually become aligned E to W along 23N through Thu then sink
southward to 21Nand dissipate by Fri night. The pressure
gradient between high pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the
frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong
easterly winds N of the front and W of 68W Wed through Fri
morning, with seas peaking around 11 ft E of the Bahamas late
Wed through early Thu.
Farther east, an elongated ridge axis extending from a 1026 mb
high centered near 35N22W is allowing for gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow, except for near the Canary islands where NE
winds become fresh. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Satellite
imagery suggests an area of suspended African dust across the
Tropical Atlantic south of 17N from the W African coast to 40W.
$$
Mora
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From
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All on Wed May 19 15:54:00 2021
600
AXNT20 KNHC 191731
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N40W
to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from the
Equator to 08N between the coast of Liberia west to 29W and
Between 33W to 51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak stationary front continues from the Atlantic Ocean through
the south-central Bahamas and across the Straits of Florida along
22N84W. High pressure centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras
extends a surface ridge S-SW across the Florida Big Bend toward
to the north central Gulf of Mexico. An outflow boundary extends
from the northern coast of Louisiana westward to South Texas
producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection across
Texas coastal waters. The associated pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is producing fresh to
strong winds across much of the Gulf, with strongest winds across
the NE Gulf to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas are 8 to 9
ft and building across this area, as well as through the Straits
of Florida where strong early winds and blowing counter to the
Florida Current. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere except lower across
the Bay of Campeche. scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted across this area of strongest surface winds from the
Straits of Florida to southeast Louisiana.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger across the NW
Gulf of Mexico over the next day. A strong ridge from eastern
seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and a deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains and
northern Mexico will result in fresh to strong SE winds and high
seas across the Gulf region today through Sat. Except peak seas of
10-13 ft on Thu and Fri in the Straits of Florida with 12 ft seas
in the central Gulf on Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak stationary front continues across the wester Atlantic and
through the south-central Bahamas and the Florida Straits along
about 22N. This is producing a modest pressure gradient across
the basin, with only moderate to fresh Trade winds presently. A
small area of fresh to strong SE winds are occurring across the
outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. In the southwest Caribbean,
the monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure centered
over northern Colombia near 10N73W westward to Nicaragua and the
Costa Rica border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany
This boundary along the coastal areas of Panama. Most of the
low-level moisture is concentrated to the north near the
stationary front and in the western Caribbean with scattered
showers present. Stable atmospheric conditions persist across the
central and eastern portion of the basin.
High pressure across the NE Atlc extends weakly north of the
eastern Caribbean and will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds
across the basin today. As high pressure continues to build across
the western Atlantic, trade winds will increase fresh to strong
basin wide this evening through Sun night. Expect fresh to strong
easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu
night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
A cold front bisects the Atlantic Ocean this morning, and enters
the discussion area through 31N37W to 25N46W. The front then
becomes stationary and continues along about 22N68W to 22N84W.
A 1027 mb surface high pressure center is located offshore of
Cape Hatteras this morning. The pressure gradient between this
high and the front is producing an area of fresh NE to E winds
across the waters east of Florida to 67-70W, where seas are 7
to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150
nm south of the frontal boundary across the Atlantic, the Bahamas
and through the Straits of Florida.
East of the frontal boundary, a ridge prevails, extending from
1078 mb high pressure near 36N20W through 31N28W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of this
ridge is producing moderate to locally fresh tradewinds across the
Tropical Atlantic south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.
N-to-NE winds have diminished below gale-force in the METEO-
FRANCE forecast area offshore of Morrocco, that is called AGADIR.
Winds to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft continue across this area.
In the forecast, the stationary front will linger across this
area through Thu morning. The front will weaken on Thu as it
sinks southward and approaches the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between high pressure
off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an
area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 65W
Wed through Fri. Seas will peak around 10 ft E of the Bahamas
late Wed through early Thu.
$$
MTorres
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From
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All on Thu May 20 15:15:00 2021
210
AXNT20 KNHC 201744
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 mb non-tropical low is located about 600 NM east of
Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later
today while it moves generally northward. The low is then
forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters
tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical
cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The
system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a
more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. Currently S
strong winds are associated with the low in our marine area
north of 29N between 46W and 52W with seas to 9 ft. These
conditions should diminish south of 31N by tonight. For more
information on this developing low pressure area, please see
High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N16W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from there to 04N52W along
the coast of NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted
between 01N and 06N west of 43W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Scattered moderate convection is occuring north of 20N between
90W and 96W in association with a sharp upper-level trough over
Texas and NE Mexico as well as a surface trough over the NW Gulf
from 25N94W north-northwestward to the Texas coast near 29N95W.
While the prevailing winds are gentle or weaker west of the
trough, winds will be gusty in the vicinity of the thunderstorm
activity. East of the trough and north of 23N, a strong NE-SW
pressure gradient is forcing E to SE winds of fresh to strong.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the NE Gulf as well as the Straits of
Florida. Elsewhere seas are generally 5 to 7 ft.
Strong thunderstorms are expected to continue across W Gulf of
Mexico through Fri and will be capable of producing locally near-
gale force winds and seas to 10 ft. Meanwhile, a strong ridge
stretching from eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters through the remainder of the week. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and deepening low pressure
across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will result in
fresh to strong SE winds and high seas across the Gulf region
through Sat. Seas will peak 10 to 13 ft today through Fri in the
Straits of Florida and 12 ft in the N central Gulf on Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate N-S pressure gradient between ridging north of the
Bahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is promoting fresh to strong
E winds over the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere the trades are gentle to moderate. Seas are
peaking 6-8 ft just north of Colombia and 5-7 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere seas are generally 4-6 ft. Scattered showers
are present across the N Caribbean and Greater Antilles in
association with a stationary front that extends over the SE
Bahamas to central Cuba. Elsewhere very scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 12N in the SW Caribbean in
association with the NE Pacific monsoon trough that extends from
Costa Rica to NE Colombia.
High pressure off the U.S. East Coast will continue to build
across the western Atlantic west of 70W through Fri. This will
bring fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through
Sat. Fresh to strong winds will also occur in the lee of Cuba
through Sat. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf
of Honduras mainly at night through tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See above Special Feature for a non-tropical low centered just
north of our marine area of responsibility.
A cold front extends from the 1012 mb non-tropical low at 33N52W
southwestward to 22N70W where it transitions to a stationary
front to 23N79W. Scattered moderate convection is located within
120 NM southeast of the front east of 65W and scattered showers
are present within 120 NM south of the front west of 65W. Strong
ridging north of the front is causing fresh to strong NE to E
winds between 19N and 30N west of 70W. Seas are up to 9 ft east
of the Bahamas and NE Florida. Elsewhere across the tropical N
Atlantic, the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh south of 20N
and gentle elsewhere. Seas are up to 8 ft south of 20N and 4 to
7 ft elsewhere.
In the forecast west of 65W, the front will weaken and dissipate
through Fri as it sinks southward and approaches the Windward
Passage and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between
high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary
will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the
front and W of 68W through late Fri. Seas will peak around 9 ft
E of the Bahamas today. Large NE swell will enter the NE waters
early Sat and spread across the area waters through Mon.
In the forecast east of 65W, winds and seas are anticipated to
have little change through Saturday, then diminish slightly on
Sunday and Mon.
$$
Landsea/Rivera-Acevedo
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From
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All on Sat May 22 09:02:00 2021
135
AXNT20 KNHC 221025
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.2N 62.2W at 22/0900
UTC or 170 nm NE of Bermuda moving WSW at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ana is forecast to remain well
north of the forecast waters. However, large swell associated with
the subtropical storm will affect the waters north of 27N between
60W and 75W through tonight.
Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: According to the forecast
from Meteo France, gale force winds will continue today near the
Canary Islands, and gales will expand toward the coast of Morocco,
including the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Outside of the
gales, strong to near gale force winds will cover the area north
of 26N and east of 24W today. Expect seas to build to 12-14 ft
offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9-11 ft seas elsewhere north
of 22N and east of 32W. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas
Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W south of 13N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of
the wave axis between 46W-52W. The wave could enhance showers
over the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N39W to
03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 33W and 48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A well-defined 1009 mb surface low pressure is moving onshore the
Texas coast near Corpus Christi, with fresh to strong SE winds and
8 to 10 ft seas over the waters east of the low center. Scattered
moderate showers are noted across most of the western Gulf of
Mexico, north of 21N and west of 90W.
East of 90W, high pressure ridging stretching from the Carolinas
to the NE Gulf of Mexico is leading to mainly clear skies in the
NE part of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, where seas are 8-10 ft. Light
to gentle winds, and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
The low pressure near Corpus Christi will move further inland
today, and winds and seas will diminish across the western Gulf
waters. Fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the central and
eastern Gulf through tonight. Seas will gradually subside across
the north-central Gulf through Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front along 20N is across the Windward Passage and
eastern Cuba, 20N80W. Scattered showers are along and south of
the front, from the western tip of Puerto Rico across Hispaniola
to Jamaica to the Yucatan Channel. Most of the open waters in the
eastern and central Caribbean south of 18N lack any significant
precipitation. Fresh to strong E winds prevail over the central
Caribbean, as well as in the lee of western Cuba and south of 14N
to the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail over the central Caribbean, with
4-6 ft seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the Bahamas across the
western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas across the central Caribbean through Wed.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical
Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda.
A stationary front passes through 31N55W, and extends to 25N62W.
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are along
the frontal boundary. Another stationary front extends from 27N51W
to 21N64W to the Windward passage. Scattered showers and isolated
embedded thunderstorms are within 120 nm of this front. Fresh NE
winds prevail in the western Atlantic, between Florida and 75W,
with fresh to strong E winds in the Florida Straits. Winds are
gentle to moderate north of 20N between 30W and 65W. Fresh trade
winds are south of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of
25N and east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale
force in the vicinity of the Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 20N will
slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure gradient between
high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary
will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W
of 70W today. Large swell associated with Subtropical Storm Ana
near Bermuda will affect the northeast forecast waters through
early Sun.
$$
Mundell
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From
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All on Sat May 22 17:47:00 2021
524
AXNT20 KNHC 222200
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.5N 62.4W at 22/2100
UTC or 180 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm NE semicircle with scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm SW semicircle of Ana. Ana is forecast to
remain well north of the forecast waters. However, large swell
associated with the subtropical storm will affect the waters
north of 27N between 60W and 75W through tonight.
Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: The pressure gradient
between a 1034 mb high pressure centered near 40N33W and lower
pressures over NW Africa is supporting gale force winds near and
in between the Canary Islands, as well as over the marine zone
Agadir. Outside of the gales, strong to near gale force winds
will cover the area north of 25N and east of 24W today. Expect
seas to build to 12-14 ft offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9-
11 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and east of 32W. See the High
Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 13N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the
wave axis from 03N to 08N. The wave could enhance showers over
the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N34W to
02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N
between 13W and 20W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
22W and 48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure is centered over the SE United States. Fresh to
strong E-SE winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico,
except for the SW Gulf and waters adjacent to eastern Mexico
where winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over much
of the Gulf waters, except for the extreme SW Gulf where seas
are 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will
continue to affect the central and eastern Gulf through tonight.
Seas will gradually subside across the Gulf waters through Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean
as well as over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range over the central
Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the
central Caribbean through Wed.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical
Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda.
A stationary front extends from 31N43W to the windward passage. A
surface trough extends from 30N68W to 27N64W, with a second
trough from 25N62W to 21N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted in the vicinity of the troughs and stationary front.
Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 22N and west of 70W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, fresh trade
winds prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 25N and
east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale force in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front over the SE
waters will slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure
gradient between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the
frontal boundary will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of
the front to about 26N and W of 70W through tonight. Large swell
associated with Subtropical Storm Ana near Bermuda will affect
the northeast and central forecast waters through early Sun.
$$
AL
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From
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All on Sun May 23 07:38:00 2021
907
AXNT20 KNHC 231043
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Ana is centered near 35.7N 60.5W at 23/0900 UTC
or 300 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm in the western semicircle. Seas up to 12 ft extend 90 nm in the
western semicircle, in the NE quadrant, and 60 nm in the SE
quadrant. Ana is expected to continue moving northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
Slight weakening is expected over the next 24 hours and Ana is
expected to dissipate by Monday. Ana will remain well north of the
forecast waters. However, swell associated with Tropical Storm
Ana will impact the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W
today.
Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Agadir region.
North to northeast gale force winds will continue through 25/1200
UTC at least. The latest scatterometer data depicts 35 kt
northerly winds in this area. Seas are expected to be rough. See
the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W south of 15N, moving W
at 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave
at this time. The wave could enhance showers over the southern
Windward Islands and SE Caribbean today.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N36W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between
36W to 51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic and extends
across most of the basin. A trough is off the Florida Panhandle
from 30N86W to 27N87W. No significant convection is associated
with it. Another trough is located in the southeast Bay of
Campeche from 22N91W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near this trough in the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N between
91W to 97W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the NW Gulf
off the southeast Texas coast. Meanwhile, fresh to strong E-SE
winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico with seas 6 to 9
ft. The SW Gulf has gentle to moderate winds with seas 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will
continue across most of the Gulf through tonight. Moderate winds
will prevail across most of the basin through midweek. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan tonight through
Wed night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the eastern Caribbean near the
Lesser Antilles, from 11N to 15N between 62W to 66W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean near Colombia, S of 12N between 76W to 83W. Isolated
thunderstorms are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to
strong easterly winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6 to 8 ft range over the central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft
elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 10 ft seas across the
central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Ana north of the area near Bermuda and the Gale Warning in Agadir.
A stationary front lingers north of the Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, from 28N53W to 19N69W. A trough is to the west of the front
from 26N63W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 19N to 31N between 54W to 72W.
Otherwise, high pressure extends across the rest of the western
Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure off the Florida coast
near 30N75W. Ridging also extends across the central and eastern
Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high near the Azores. Fresh
easterly winds prevail along the Bahamas southward toward
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in addition to near 31N62W. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas range 6 to 8 ft.
For the forecast west of 65W, fresh easterly winds will continue
across the Bahamas with moderate winds elsewhere across the
region. Large swell associated with Tropical Storm Ana near
Bermuda will impact the region today. Quiescent conditions are
expected Mon through midweek.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 23 17:35:00 2021
769
AXNT20 KNHC 232104
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Ana is centered near 37.5N 57.7W at 23/2100
UTC or 470 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The upper shear continues to
be strong, and Ana remains an exposed with no significant
convection near its center. Ana is expected to weaken below
tropical storm strength tonight as it continues to move to the
northeast, then dissipate Mon. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 90
nm in the southeast quadrant and 60 nm in the northeast and
southwest quadrants, with seas below 12 ft in the northwest
quadrant of the storm.
Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds
to gale force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least
24/06 UTC and gales to strong gales the Agadir region through at
least 25/12 UTC. Meteo-France is also forecasting winds to gale
force for the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are
expected to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are
due a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over
the Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See
the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N45W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between 36W
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A trough is analyzed from off the northwest tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula to the south-central Gulf. The pressure gradient
between these troughs and 1024 mb high pressure centered off
northeast Florida is supporting generally fresh E to SE winds and
5 to 8 ft seas in a broad swath from northwest Cuba across the
central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off Texas. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft persist elsewhere. A few showers are
possible over the west central Gulf, ahead of the trough, but
otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. No
significant smoke or haze is noted as well.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds
through Tue night, and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder
of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly
off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Thu night. Seas will
continue to subside to less than 8 ft by tonight.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper trough extends from west of Bermuda to over the Mona
Passage to over the north-central Caribbean south of Hispaniola.
Divergence aloft on the eastern side of this trough is supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands.
Isolated showers are noted in the trade flow in a few areas around
the basin, but otherwise no significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is evident elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds
with 6 to 8 ft seas are ongoing off Colombia to about 15N.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
south- central Caribbean through Wed as high pressure remains over
the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in
the lee of Cuba through Tue night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Ana north of the area and northeast of Bermuda and the gale
warnings in off Morocco and near the Canary Islands.
1024 mb high pressure is centered off the northeast Florida coast
near 30N79W. East of this, an upper trough extends from west of
Bermuda to over the Mona Passage, supporting a surface trough
reaching from the Mona Passage northward to 27N60W. Divergence
aloft on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting
scattered showers between these surface troughs, specifically
from 22N to 25N between 60W and 65W. NW swell related in part to
T.S. Ana is supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over the open waters west of
65W. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of
20N, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure centered over the Azores.
In addition to the gales off northwest Africa described in the
Special Features section, this pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft south of 20N and west of 35W.
For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE swell
will continue to impact the forecast waters through tonight. A
frontal trough is supporting some shower and thunderstorm activity
over the SE waters, including the NE Caribbean. A ridge will
dominate the forecast region over the next several days producing
moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 23N, gentle to moderate E
winds from 23N to 27N, and mainly light and variable winds N of
27N where the ridge axis will prevail.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 24 14:24:00 2021
630
AXNT20 KNHC 241820
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts north to northeast gales to
strong gales to continue in the the Agadir region through at
least 25/06 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in
this area. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast
products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 0351W at the coast
of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
south of 07N east of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring between 04N and 08N west of 38W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A trough stretches across the eastern Bay of Campeche from
24N89W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is between 22N
and 25N between 90W and 95W. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge
northeast of the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds noted across
the basin with light winds in the SW and NE Gulf. Seas range 3
to 6 ft.
The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds can be expected through
Tue night and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off
the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Fri night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the monsoon
trough in the SW Caribbean S of 12N west of 78W. Strong trade
winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are up to 8 ft near Colombia with 5
to 7 ft across the rest of the basin.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central and
portions of the southwest Caribbean as well as across the
Windward Passage through Wed night. This is due to a ridge
extension of the Azores high into the northern Caribbean and
strong high pressure over the northwest Atlantic. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are expected to dominate the central and
eastern portions of the basin through the remaining forecast
period. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate
the region through early Wed evening with fresh to strong winds
pulsing at night in the Gulf of Honduras.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on the gale
warning near Agadir.
A trough extends from 31N55W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate
convection exists within 300 NM east of the trough axis. High
pressure extends off the western Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb
high near 28N77W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N
between 70W to 80W. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail across the
western Atlantic with seas 4 to 6 ft.
High pressure also extends across the central and eastern
Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high near the Azores. This is
supporting gale force winds near Agadir. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted across this area of the Atlantic with fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds off the Morocco and Western Sahara
coast. Seas 6 to 8 ft are noted in the central Atlantic with 10
to 15 ft off the western African coast.
For west of 65W, the ridge of high pressure will dominate the
forecast region over the next several days producing moderate to
fresh easterly winds S of 25N and gentle to moderate E winds
from 25N to 27N. Light and variable winds will prevail
elsewhere.
For east of 65W, the strong breeze to strong gale N to NE winds
north of 23N and east of 20W will steadily diminish over the
next two days. By Wednesday night, winds will be moderate or
weaker in the area. Elsewhere little change in the tradewinds
for the next few days. The large seas near NW Africa will also
steadily diminish and drop below 8 ft by Wednesday night.
Elsewhere seas will remain generally 4 to 7 ft.
$$
Landsea
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From
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All on Tue May 25 18:44:00 2021
276
AXNT20 KNHC 252335
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 14N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted east of the wave axis from 00N-10N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N34W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Outside the convection
associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered
showers are noted within 100 nm on either sides of the ITCZ
between 30W-42W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered over the western Atlantic. With this, dry
conditions prevail across the basin. Latest scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the whole
area. Seas are ranging between 2-5 ft.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast
through Sat night, with fresh to locally strong northeast to
east winds pulsing at night off the Yucatan Peninsula with the
typical thermal trough.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The monsoon trough stretches across Panama into the eastern
Pacific. This is the focal point for scattered moderate
convection in the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 11N and west of 74W.
Fresh to strong trade winds are in the south-central Caribbean
south of 16N between 72W-80W with seas 6 to 9 ft. An area of fresh
winds is also noted over the Windward Passage with seas 3 to 5
ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail with seas up to 5 ft.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central and
portions of the southwest Caribbean through Thu. By Thu evening,
winds will become moderate to locally fresh and continue through
Sun night. In the northwest Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds
will dominate through Wed with strong winds pulsing at night in
the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage through Wed night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving west across the eastern Atlantic.
A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N78W. This is
bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable winds with
seas 4 to 5 ft across the western Atlantic north of 25N.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the
southern Bahamas south of 25N. To the east, high pressure also
prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by
1029 mb high E of the Azores. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
west of 30W with seas 4 to 6 ft. Fresh NE winds are north of 15N
and east of 30W. Another area of fresh NE winds is south of 15N
and west of 30W.
Light winds will prevail through Wed across most of
the western Atlantic as high pressure extends over the region.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue over southern
Bahamas and near the Greater Antilles through Wed night. Winds
will become gentle to moderate by Thu and through the weekend.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the
NE Florida coast on Fri ahead of a cold front forecast to come
off the southeastern CONUS late this weekend.
$$
ERA
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From
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All on Wed May 26 15:00:00 2021
518
AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that has been
relocated to near 28W from 10N southward, moving W around 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N
between 27W to 30W. The wave has no significant surface
component and is analyzed based upon GFS-based 700 mb tropical
wave diagnostics.
A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added the surface
analysis along 13W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
18W. A surface trough associated with the wave was noted in the
scatterometer data.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissau
near 12N17W to 06N20W. ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 05N26W,
breaks for a tropical wave, then continues again from 05N31W to
06N53W along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
06N between 20W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 10N west of 52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extending along 30N just north of the Gulf of
Mexico is promoting generally SE gentle to moderate breezes. No
significant shower or deep convective activity is occurring
today. Seas are 2-4 ft over the NE Gulf and 4-5 ft elsewhere.
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected today
through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast
extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh to
locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly off
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat. A cold front is
expected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun
and stall across the region by Sun night. Expect moderate north
to northeast winds behind the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high north of the
Bahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is contributing to strong to
near gale NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean today.
Elsewhere E trades are moderate to fresh. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW
Caribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough that
extends from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the S
central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central portions
of the Caribbean through early Thu as high pressure reside
offshore of the NE Florida coast. Winds will diminish
significantly late Thu through Sun night as the high collapses.
In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate today and
become gentle to moderate by Thu through Sun. Strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward
Passage tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving west across the eastern Atlantic.
Ridging from a strong 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at
38N46W extends east-west north of our waters. The pressure
gradient south of the ridge is forcing NE to E trades that are
fresh to strong south of 23N with weaker winds farther north. A
surface trough - associated with a vigorous upper-level trough -
extends from a weak 1022 mb low at 33N61W to 28N69W. Scattered
showers are present from 23N to 30N between 55W to 62W. Seas are
8-10 ft south of 15N west of 40W as well as north of 15N east of
25W and 5-7 ft elsehwere.
In the forecast for west of 65W, light winds will prevail north
of 24N through Thu as weak low pressure just east of Bermuda
interrupts the Atlantic ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will continue across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through
early Thu. Winds will become gentle to moderate Thu through Sun
as the Atlantic ridge extends from the east central Atlantic
weakly W-SW to Florida. Thu night, moderate to fresh southerly
winds will develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold
front forecast to come off the southeastern CONUS late Sat. The
cold front will push across northern Florida on Sun before
stalling Sun night.
In the forecast for east of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
weaken some on Thu leading toward a reduction in the NE to E
trades to moderate to fresh. Seas should diminish across the
waters below 8 ft by Fri.
$$
Landsea
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From
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All on Thu May 27 15:54:00 2021
738
AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W south
of 13N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection noted with 300 nm of either side
of the wave from 01N to 06N. Another area of similar convection
is noted east of the wave from 02N to 05N between 05W to 16W.
Another tropical wave has its axis along 42W south of 12N. It is
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is located under a
more stable upper environment that is marked by subsidence and
dry sinking air found behind an upper-level trough. Scattered
moderate convection is west of the wave to the coast of Brazil
from 03N to 07N. ASCAT data from earlier today notes a surge of
fresh NE winds west of the wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is
identified between the tropical waves from 05N26W to 04N39W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm north of the ITCZ
between 28W to 34W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the Gulf anchored by a 1022 mb surface high
pressure center over the western Atlantic. A local 1021 mb high
pressure center is south of the Florida Panhandle near 29N84W.
High pressure and deep layer dry air apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery is keeping mainly fair weather conditions in
place. ASCAT data notes gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
across the basin. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf and 3 to 5
ft in the SW Gulf.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are
expected through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE
Florida coast extends westward to SE Texas and gradually
weakens. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse nightly to
strong off the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat. A cold front is
expected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun,
then stall across the northern Gulf Sun night. Expect moderate
north to northeast winds behind the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The monsoon trough is analyzed over eastern Panama into the
eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the trough is in the SW Caribbean, south of 10N. Debris high
level cloudiness from this activity continues to stream eastward
over the SW Caribbean.
ASCAT data from this morning reveals fresh to strong NE winds
over the central and south-central Caribbean, south of 16.5N.
Wave heights with these winds are in the 6 to 11 ft range.
Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across the basin with
seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft.
As for the forecast: Fresh to strong trades will prevail across
the central portions of the Caribbean through early today as high
pressure resides in the western Atlantic. Winds will diminish
significantly through early next week as the high collapses.
Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras and
the Windward Passage tonight.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
An upper-level low is vividly noted near 27N64W, with a surface
trough stretching from 30N63W to 23N65W. A very moist and
unstable atmospheric environment around the upper-level low
along with upper diffluence is supporting scattered moderate
convection within 270 nm east of the surface trough. The GOES-16
geostationary lightning mapper reveals frequent lightning within
this convection.
Otherwise, high pressure is anchored in the western Atlantic
near 31N68W allowing for gentle return flow west of 65W with
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Farther east, another area of high pressure
is centered near 37N40W allowing for gentle to moderate NE to E
winds across the basin. Seas east of 50W range from 6 to 9 ft.
For the forecast, light winds will prevail north of 24N through
today as a weak trough along 65W interrupts the Atlantic ridge.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the Bahamas
and Greater Antilles through this morning. Winds will become
gentle to moderate later today through Sun as the Atlantic ridge
extends from the east-central Atlantic weakly WSW to Florida.
Fri night, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off
the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge
off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. A cold front will move
across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri May 28 09:08:00 2021
107
AXNT20 KNHC 281000
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W, moving westward at 10 to
15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of
the wave axis from 05N to 07N.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
from 01N to 07N between 37W and 43W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N24W.
It resumes from 06N27W to 06N39W, then resumes from 06N43W to
07N57W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ
axis.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by 1018
mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the vicinity of the high
center, with gentle to moderate east to southeast winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 92W, and 1-3 ft east of 92W.
The area of high pressure will support gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds through Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds
will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula through
Sat. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern
Gulf Sat night into Sun before stalling across the northern Gulf
Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind
the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure prevails north of the Caribbean. Fresh to locally
strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
over the south central Caribbean, 2-3 ft over the far NW
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong trades across the south central Caribbean will
diminish tonight through early next week as high pressure across
the SW N Atlc weakens. Fresh winds are expected in the southern
Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted west of the Bahamas, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere west of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere north of 20N. In the tropical waters south of 20N,
moderate to locally fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 3-4 ft
range west of 60W and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N,
seas are in the 6-8 ft range.
for the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will
develop off the NE Florida coast tonight ahead of a cold front
forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold
front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun
night.
$$
AL
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From
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All on Mon May 31 08:40:00 2021
112
AXNT20 KNHC 311003
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 40W and 46W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 58W and 61W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea near 11N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to
07N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 11N between 10N and 21W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 07N between 32W and 40W, and from 05N to 08N
between 49W and 56W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from central Florida to the coast of
Texas near 29N95W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over
the far SW Gulf west of the Yucatan peninsula, and over the Bay of
Campeche. Gentle winds prevail over the far NE Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range west
of 90W and 1-3 ft east of 90W.
The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh northeast to
east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan
Peninsula. High pressure will prevail north of the basin through
Wed.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure prevails north of the basin. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the far
NW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of
the remainder of the basin.
Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand
slightly northward through Tue as high pressure strengthens across
the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail
across much of the basin through Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
A cold front extends from 31N76W to near Ft Pierce, Florida.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
60 nm of this boundary. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of
3-4 ft prevail north of the cold front. Elsewhere, high pressure
prevails across the basin, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure
centered near 37N51W. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail north
of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail across
the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
range west of 70W. East of 70W, seas are in the 4-7 ft range,
except S of 11N between 48W and 59W where seas are reaching 9 ft
in NW swell.
For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front off the coast of north
Florida will weaken through Tue. High pressure will build
gradually westward into the region late tonight through Wed and
then prevail through the remainder of the week.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 31 17:11:00 2021
017
AXNT20 KNHC 311719
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 1805 UTC Mon May 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 41W and 47W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 58W and 61W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
11N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 04N41W where
it intercepts a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues from 03N45W to
the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted north of the ITCZ from 05N to 09N
between 48W and 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, a weakening stationary front extends from
Sarasota, Florida to the coast of Texas near 29N95W. High
pressure centered over the Carolinas is supporting gentle to
moderate return flow over the entire basin except for west of
the Yucatan Peninsula winds are locally fresh. Seas are in the
2-4 ft range across the Gulf.
The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh northeast to
east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan
Peninsula. High pressure will prevail near the U.S. mid-Atlantic
coast through Wed. Little change is expected through the end of
the week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure prevails north of the basin. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over
the south central and southeastern Caribbean with 6-9 ft seas.
Gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas,
and moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the remainder
of the basin with 3-5 ft seas.
Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand
slightly northward through Tue as high pressure strengthens across
the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail
across much of the basin through Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN
A stationary front takes the place of a cold front extending
from 31N76W to near Ft Pierce, Florida. A mid-upper level trough
axis extends from NE Florida to the NW Caribbean. Upper level
diffluence along with a very moist environment around this front
and the trough is supporting scattered moderate convection over
the northern Bahamas, north of 23N and west of 74W. ASCAT data
from 1400 UTC noted strong winds over the N Bahamas and the GOES-
16 lightning mapper reveals frequent lightning within this
convection.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3-4 ft prevail
east of the stationary front to 60W. High pressure prevails
across the basin, anchored by 1035 mb high pressure centered
near 38N52W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 20N with seas
of 4-6 ft. Seas east of 50W, as well as over the waters from 20N
to the equator range from 5-8 ft.
For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will weaken
through Tue. After the front dissipates, scattered showers and
tstorms will persist this week around the Bahamas region, due to
an upper-level low that is expected to sit over the area. High
pressure will build gradually westward into the region late
tonight through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of
the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 75W and
S of 28N Wed through Fri, with gentle winds east of Florida.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jun 1 15:44:00 2021
750
AXNT20 KNHC 011740
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 06W and 22W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection is inland over
Venezuela and NW Brazil.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near
05N23W to 07N35W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 08N between 32W and 40W. Similar convection is
noted from 01N to 09N between 46W and 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary ahead of a cold front
located over South Texas has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N and west of
95W. Otherwise, high pressure prevails allowing for moderate E
winds across most of the basin. ASCAT data notes fresh winds
west of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west
of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end
of the week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The monsoon trough passes through northern Colombia into the
east Pacific. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
associated with the monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean, south
of 11N and east of 78W. The pressure gradient between higher
pressure north of the area and climatological low pressure over
Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south
central Caribbean with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds are over the NW Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.
Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will
prevail today before diminishing. High pressure will prevail
across the western Atlc through the week. This will support
moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the basin through
Sat.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from 30N78W to the NW Bahamas to
24N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 1800 nm of the trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of
3-4 ft are found west of the trough. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1032 mb high
pressure near 36N53W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the
forecast waters west of 40W, while gentle to moderate winds are
east of 40W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of 60W. East of
60W, seas are in the 5-8 ft range.
For the forecast W of 65W, the surface trough will dissipate
today. High pressure will gradually build westward into the region
through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of the week.
This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across much of
the forecast waters Wed through Sat.
$$
Mora
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Jun 2 14:42:00 2021
356
AXNT20 KNHC 021721
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 09N between 23W and 34W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No convection is noted in
the vicinity of the tropical wave at this time.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, from 11N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No convection is noted in
the vicinity of the tropical wave at this time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N16W to
05N25W. It resumes from 05N28W to 05N39W, then resumes again from
05N42W to 06N57W. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 11N
between 50W and 58W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
In the W Gulf, a surface trough is sustaining an area of
moderate convection from 22N to 25N along 96W. Elsewhere, high
pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Winds are gentle, with
seas of 2-4 ft throughout the Gulf.
High pressure ridging will persist across the
Gulf of Mexico this week. Fresh northeast to east winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through the end of the week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low over Cuba is producing scattered moderate
convection from Jamaica to E Cuba. Showers and moderate
convection are also observed over the SW Caribbean. High
pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the NW
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south
central Caribbean tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across much of the Caribbean through Sun.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
In the W Atlantic, scattered moderate convection associated with
an upper level low is noted between Cuba and the Bahamas. A cold
front extends from 31N19W to 26N37W to 28N45W. The latest ASCAT
data shows fresh to strong winds north of the front. High
pressure prevails elsewhere across the forecast waters. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted north of Hispaniola with moderate
to locally fresh winds prevailing throughout the rest of the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin.
For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across much of the
forecast waters through Sun.
$$
Mahoney
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jun 3 14:43:00 2021
237
AXNT20 KNHC 031742
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N
to 08N between 31W and 34W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with this tropical wave from the equator to
11N between 53W and 62W.
The axis of tropical wave is near 77W, from 13N southward, moving
westward at around 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this tropical wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W and continues over the E Atlantic to 05N19W to
05N25W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 05N25W to 05N30W, and
from 05N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection exists from 01N to 07N between 10W and 26W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Ridging continues to be observed across the Gulf of Mexico. In
the S Gulf, a weak trough is analyzed along 92W from 18N to 22N.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly
in the N Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the Bay of Campeche, with
1-3 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is evident
in the W Gulf from 22N to 26N between 95W and 97W.
For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh northeast to east
winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. An upper-
level low over Texas will enhance showers and tstorms this weekend
near the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered
moderate convection near Guantanamo Bay, with scattered showers
over the remainder of the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from the Coast of Panama
north to 11N between 77W and 84W. Recent observations show fresh
to locally strong trade winds off the coast of central Colombia,
where seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are noted in the remainder of the basin, with 4 to 6
ft seas.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean the next several nights. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure centered SW of the
Azores and a 1029 mb high pressure ENE of Bermuda. Gentle to moderate
winds veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in the central
Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas are 4-6 ft.
For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours.
$$
Mahoney
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jun 4 09:39:00 2021
217
AXNT20 KNHC 040958
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N-09N between 31W-36W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, from 11N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 10N between 60W-65W.
The axis of tropical wave is near 80W, from 13N southward, moving
westward at around 5-10 kt. Scatted moderate convection is noted
from 06N-11N between 79W-83W, with additional showers and
thunderstorms inland over much of Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N13W and
continues over the E Atlantic to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from
04N24W to 05N36W, and from 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near
09N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N-09N between 10W-20W. Scattered showers are noted
elsewhere in the vicinity of both boundaries.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging continues prevails across the basin. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly in the N
Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the W Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas
elsewhere. A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection across
the northern half of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through early next week. An upper-level low over Texas
will enhance convection over the NW gulf waters today and spread
across the basin through the weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The northern portions of two tropical waves are extending across
the basin. Please refer to the section above for details.
An upper level trough extends over the Windward Passage and
western Caribbean. The trough is enhancing convection across Cuba
and adjacent waters. Recent observations depict moderate to fresh
trade winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are reported to
be 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds are noted in the remainder
of the basin, except gentle to moderate north of 18N. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range, except 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean the next several nights. Elsewhere, high
pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting moderate
to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through early
next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.
A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the
Azores near 34N54W, another 1029 mb high near 34N36W, and a 1030
mb high centered near 37N24W. Gentle to moderate winds, locally
strong west of 55W, veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in
the central Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas
are 4-6 ft, and 4-7 ft east of 65W.
For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast
waters through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours for the
next several days.
$$
ERA
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From
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All on Mon Jun 7 14:57:00 2021
202
AXNT20 KNHC 071812
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa
and is currently analyzed along 16W from 13N southward. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the wave
axis is from 03N-09N between 05W-19W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection associated with the wave axis is from 01S-07N between
30W-41W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within
150 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-10N.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. The monsoon trough passes through Panama and is
enhancing convection ahead of the wave. Scattered strong
convection is south of 12N between 73W-82W, including over NW
Colombia and Panama. Expect heavy rain to affect portions of NW
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Wed.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16 to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to
04N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N41W to 03N51W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above,
scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 23W-28W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central and western Gulf
of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from east of northern Florida
to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms are occurring over the eastern Gulf, mainly east
of 86W.
ASCAT data from this morning reveals fresh E winds within the
Straits of Florida. Fresh SE to S winds are in the west- central
Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in both locations.
Moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are elsewhere.
High pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate to locally fresh
SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to
moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlc
weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico
late in the week, maintaining tranquil weather conditions with
slight winds and seas.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is along 75W. See above.
An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW to
Costa Rica. Scattered moderate showers are seen on the SE side of
the upper- trough extending from Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands SW to the Venezuela/Colombia border.
Fresh to strong trades are in the central and south-central
Caribbean, with fresh trades within the Windward passage and over
the NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the E Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the remainder of the central
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. High
pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting
moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds
will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high
pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is
expected in the east-central Caribbean through Tue due to the
combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing
the region. The enhanced showers and storms will migrate to the
central and SW Caribbean mid to late week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about
550 nm SE of Bermuda. An upper-level trough extends from the
upper-low to Hispaniola. A surface trough below the upper-level
trough extends from 30N57W to 23N58W. Isolated showers remain
within 70 nm west of the surface trough. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence seen in water vapor imagery is located in the base
of the upper trough, between the upper- low and Hispaniola.
A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N29W,
about 650 nm W of the Canary Islands. Cloudiness and possible
light showers are east of the this upper-low, extending to the
Canary Islands.
The subtropical ridge extends from a 1029 mb high near 33N38W
westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Scatterometer data
from this morning reveals gentle to moderate trade winds north of
25N with fresh trade winds mainly south of 25N across the basin. Seas
are 7-9 ft stretching across the tropical Atlantic, south of 25N.
Seas are 3-6 ft from 25N-31N.
For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade
winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will
become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to
strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage late this afternoon and end overnight.
$$
Mora
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From
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All on Tue Jun 8 14:27:00 2021
793
AXNT20 KNHC 081716
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern South America: A
series of tropical waves moving W across the Caribbean will
combine with the monsoon trough to enhance rainfall over portions
of Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El
Salvador and southern Honduras through Thursday. The threat of
heavy rain may persist into the weekend for portions of Central
America, as models are suggesting the possible formation of a
Central American Gyre (CAG). Please consult products from your
local or national meteorological service for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20/21W from 13N
southward, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 200 nm of either side of the wave axis south
of 05N.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 12N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-07N between 44W-49W. An earlier ASCAT pass revealed fresh
winds associated with this wave north of 06N.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is mostly inland over Venezuela and eastern Colombia.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along and within 200 nm E of the wave axis, over the
SW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W and continues SW to 06N25W to 02N37W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N37W to 03N45W. Aside from the convection mentioned above,
scattered to numerous moderate, with embedded scattered strong
convection is noted from 02S-07N between 23W-35W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough extends southward from near New Orleans
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and tstorms
are over the NE Gulf between 26N and 30N from 88W to 85W. A
surface ridge extends from NE Florida into the west-central Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the Straits of
Florida and the western Gulf. Gentle anticyclonic winds are noted
over the NE Gulf. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft just off the Texas
coast, 3 to 5 across the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through tonight. Fresh
easterly winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By
midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high
pressure over the W Atlc weakens. Weak high pressure will spread
over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil
conditions through Fri. A cold front will sink southward over the
SE U.S. on Sat, possibly increasing SW to W winds over the NE Gulf
this weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.
An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and extends SW to
Central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are flaring up southeast of the trough, between 15N and 18N from
64W to 70W. Fresh winds prevail in the Central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are in the
NW Caribbean, with gentle winds in the far SW basin. Seas are 5 to
7 ft over the most of the basin, except 3-5 ft in the NW
Caribbean, north of 18.5N.
For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trade winds through Wed. Winds will
become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens.
Scattered showers and tstms are expected over portions of the
eastern and central Caribbean through today due to the combination
of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the
region. The convection is expected to migrate to the SW Caribbean
mid to late week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
over the SW Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N69W.
An upper-level trough extends W-SW from a low near 21N54W to
another one near 27N70W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seem
near the first low between 26N and 28N from 69W-71W. Cloudiness
and light to moderate showers are located south of these
features.
The subtropical ridge is situated east-west along 32N across the
Atlantic Ocean, with 1027 mb high pressure centers near 32N40W
and 30N62W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail north
of 25N, with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are south of
25N, over the tropical Atlantic, where seas are 7 to 9 ft.
For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
along 31N through tonight, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE
trade winds south of 27N. By midweek, winds will become gentle to
moderate as the high pressure weakens and the ridge moves
southward. Those conditions will continue through Fri night.
Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today and Wed.
A cold front is likely to emerge off the coast of the Carolinas
and Georgia this weekend. South of the front, expect SW winds to
increase to fresh this weekend, north of 28N.
$$
Mora/Chan
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From
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All on Wed Jun 9 13:46:00 2021
333
AXNT20 KNHC 091807
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: A broad
trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Significant development
of this system appears unlikely as it drifts west-northwestward
or northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of development,
this system could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia
and portions of Central America from Honduras southward later
this week and into the weekend. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 13N southward,
moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is seen within 180 nm on either side of the wave axis, from 04N-
09N.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 12N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south
of 09N and along the coast of Brazil west to Guayana.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal
and Guinea near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W
to 08N25W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N30W to 00N42W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen near the
coast of Africa from 06N-19N, east of 17W. Scattered moderate
convection along the ITCZ is observed from 00N to 05N between 33W
to 37W, and from 04N to 09N between 29W to 32W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends across the Gulf of Mexico providing light
to gentle anticyclonic winds across much of the Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the SE Gulf near a
surface trough located near 22N93W to 19N96W. A second trough is
observed over the Bay of Campeche, from 24N85W to 22N88W. Scattered
showers are noted mainly near the Mexican coast south of 19N with
this trough. Moderate SE winds prevail across most of the remainder
of the Gulf, except for fresh ESE in the Florida Straits. Seas
3-5 ft cover most of the basin, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf near
Florida.
For the forecast, fresh easterly winds will pulse each night
through Thu night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal
trough. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western Gulf today.
By Thu and Fri, winds will diminish as weak high pressure settles
over the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal trough will sink southward
over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely inducing moderate SW to W
winds over the NE Gulf.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features and the Tropical Wave section above for
details on a broad trough of low pressure in the SW Caribbean
later this week, and a tropical wave currently along 70W.
Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection stretching
from the Windward Passage across Jamaica and south of Cuba to 81W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located in
the SW Gulf, south of 12N between 75W-84W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen over the eastern Caribbean, north of Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles.
High pressure ridging north of the area will support moderate to
fresh tradewinds into tonight. Winds will diminish to gentle to
moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens. Scattered showers and
tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of
this week in association with a broad trough of low pressure.
Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central Caribbean this
weekend as high pressure ridging becomes re- established along 25N
over the west Atlantic. For the forecast,
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level cyclonic trough extends southwest across Hispaniola
to western Caribbean. Scattered showers and tstorms are east side
of this feature from Hispaniola north to 25N. At the surface, a
high pressure ridge extends E-W along 31N across the entire basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure near 32N56W. In the W Atlantic,
gentle to moderate winds are north of 26N. Moderate to fresh
trades are from 19N-26N. Fresh trades cover the tropical Atlantic
south of 15N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 7-9
ft. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of the basin. Further E,
a surface trough extends from 22N19W to 30N13W with scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. N to NE winds
ranged between 20 to 25 kts over the region.
For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will weaken
over the W Atlantic today, allowing winds to diminish to gentle to
moderate tonight. These conditions will continue into early Fri.
Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today. A
frontal trough is likely to be located north of the area Fri
through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh to
potentially locally strong SW winds north of 28N.
For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong N to NE winds will
continue to pulse near the Canary Islands and off the coast of
Western Sahara during the next several days, where seas will reach
7-8 ft at times.
$$
Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jun 10 13:31:00 2021
970
AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 15W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 03N-09N between Liberia to 20W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
09N between 32W to 37W.
A tropical wave is along 62W from 12N southward, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the NE coast of Venezuela.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The monsoon trough intersects the wave at
10N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
vicinity of the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from
08N21W to 07N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N37W
to 02N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 20W-25W, and from
02N-06N between 37W-44W, including northern coast of Brazil.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A broad upper-level low is centered over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level divergence is enhancing numerous moderate
convection over the southern Bay of Campeche, south of 20N.
At the surface, a trough is analyzed from 22N90W to 18N93W.
Elsewhere, a 1018 mb High centered over the northeast Gulf
is providing light and gentle winds across the basin with
seas ranging from 2 to 4 ft, except 1-3 ft in the far NE
near the center of the high.
The high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri,
leading to light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Gentle to moderate
SE winds will prevail over the southern and western Gulf through
Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A frontal trough will push
southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, inducing moderate west
winds over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds will
prevail on Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
See above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin.
In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the Gulf of
Honduras and along the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate trade winds
prevail across the much of the basin, locally fresh in the south-
central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW Caribbean as well as
the SW Caribbean, north of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
eastern and central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-5
ft in the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail today across the
basin. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW
Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a
broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the
south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging
becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh
winds will then continue over the central Caribbean through Mon. A
weak tropical wave will enter the southeastern Caribbean today,
possibly promoting the development of shower activity. The next
tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean on Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center near
30N37W westward to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds are north of 27N between 30W-69W, where seas are 3-5 ft.
Moderate trades prevail south of 27N. Scattered moderate
convection is seen north of PR to 26N between 61W-66W. Farther
east, fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic east of
60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh NE winds are seen south of the
Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will
continue through tonight as high pressure ridging prevails over
the area. A frontal trough will be located north of the area late
Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh
to potentially locally strong southwest winds north of 28N, along
with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
$$
Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jun 20 06:54:00 2021
910
AXNT20 KNHC 201039
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 33.3N 85.8W at
20/0900 UTC or 70 nm WSW of Atlanta Georgia moving ENE at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 200 nm in the eastern semicircle. On
the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the
southeast U.S. through tonight, move over the coasts of North
Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and be located
south of Nova Scotia by late Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is
expected by late today, and Claudette is expected to become a
tropical storm again on Monday over eastern North Carolina.
Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean
through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-
tropical cyclone by late Tuesday.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 11N between 40W-43W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 23N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is noted from 11N to 17N
between 63W to 67W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
confined to the SW Caribbean, south of 12N and W of 80W. Isolated
convection is also noted near Cuba, N of 20N between 80W to 82W.
The axis of tropical wave is near 89W from 20N southward, moving
W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are present in the vicinity of the
wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N20W to 07N32W. The ITCZ continues from 07N32W to
09N37W then continues west of a tropical wave near 06N44W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough
from 00N to 12N and E of 31W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 07N between 38W to 52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Claudette.
A trough extends across the western Gulf from 28N92W to 24N97W in
addition to the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 19N92W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Gulf, N of 25N
and W of 90W. Fresh winds continue across the NE Gulf with
moderate to locally fresh south to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas
range 4-6 ft in the NE gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, Tropical Depression Claudette is well inland across
the southeastern U.S. An area of fresh S to SW winds, with seas
to 8 ft, is expected to continue across the NE Gulf waters N of
28N between 85W and 90W through this morning. These conditions
are expected to improve today. Lingering showers and thunderstorms
can also be expected today across the northeastern Gulf. High
pressure is forecast to build in across the basin today and into
early next week. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow
will set up across the western Gulf later today and continue
through Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near tropical
waves as described in the tropical waves section. No other
significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
range in the south-central Caribbean with 4-6 ft across the rest
of the basin.
For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed
night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean supporting some
shower and thunderstorm activity in that area. It will continue to
enhance showers and thunderstorms across the western and central
Caribbean through Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
In the western Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast and in the northern
Bahamas, N of 24N and W of 77W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
are noted across this region with seas 4-6 ft. In the central
Atlantic, high pressure ridging extends across the area with no
significant convection noted. Winds are moderate to fresh S of 25N
and seas 6-8 ft. North of 25N, light to gentle winds prevail with
seas 4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb low is noted near
27N31W with a warm front extending east of the low to 27N28W and a
cold front west of the low to 30N37W. Showers are along this
front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in this region with 6-8
ft seas.
For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge will dominate the area
during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters,
including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Thu night.
Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected to develop over waters
N of 29N tonight and continue through Mon night.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jun 20 18:18:00 2021
333
AXNT20 KNHC 202154
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 34.2N 82.5W at
20/2100 UTC or 70 nm W of Columbia South Carolina moving ENE at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the
forecast track, the system should continue to move across portions
of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of
North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass
near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some re-
strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to
become a tropical storm again late tonight or early Monday over
eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the
western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tue afternoon or Tue
night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave is located from 05N to 13N with an axis along
31W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.
A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 43W,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N to 11N between 40W-46W.
A tropical wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis near 69W,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent Caribbean waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near
10N15W to 06N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to
08N40W then continues west of a tropical wave near 08N44W to
08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
01N to 10N E of 24W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Although Tropical Depression Claudette is centered over South
Carolina and moving NE away from the area, outer rainbands
associated with it continue to support numerous moderate to strong
convection along the northern Gulf coast and within 120 nm of
shore. Some strong winds are likely with this activity as well as
restrictions in visibility. Moderate to locally fresh return flow
is elsewhere across the basin with seas with seas ranging between
3 to 5 ft.
A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days.
Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up across
the western Gulf later this evening and continue through Mon.
Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early
morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through Thu
night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave along 69W is generating a few thunderstorms over
and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient
between the Azores high and lower pressure associated with the
tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the
eastern half of the basin, with fresh to strong winds occurring
over the south-central waters. Seas range between 5 and 7 ft.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW
Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds pulse to
fresh to strong.
The Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to
support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean
through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical over
the eastern Caribbean along 68W will move across the central
Caribbean on Mon.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
With Tropical Depression Claudette move ENE through South
Carolina, the system will generally remain north of the area.
However, moderate rainbands are impact areas N of 28N and W of
75W. The Azores high extends a ridge axis into the area W of 65W
and supports mainly moderate to fresh return flow. Light to gentle
variable winds are across the central Atlantic while a stronger
pressure gradient due to lower pressure over northern Africa
supports moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Atlantic E of 35W.
For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the area
during the next several days. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are
expected to develop over waters N of 30N W of 70W tonight and Mon
due to the pressure gradient between Claudette, forecast to move
into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and the Atlantic high
pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at
night over Hispaniola adjacent waters, including approaches to the
Windward Passage, through Fri night.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jun 22 16:49:00 2021
375
AXNT20 KNHC 221730
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends along 21W, from 16N southward, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N
between 19W and 28W.
Another tropical wave extends along 38W from 11N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 07N.
A third tropical wave runs along 53W from 14N southward, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 09N to 14N between 48W and 58W. Enhanced showers and
tstorms are possible over the SE Caribbean later this week.
A fourth tropical wave is along 88W, from the western Gulf of
Honduras southward to the east Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Convection over the southwest Caribbean is more related
to the monsoon trough, described in the Caribbean section.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N20W to 06N34W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N34W to 05N37W and then west of a tropical wave from 05N40W
to 07N52W. Scattered showers are seen within 90 nm either side of
the ITCZ between 43W and 49W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front is located just inland over Louisiana and Texas.
Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong
thunderstorms over the far northwest Gulf of Mexico out ahead of
the frontal system, north of 27N and west of 92W. A second area of thunderstorms is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
northwest of 28N and east of 89W. A surface ridge extends across
the central and southern Gulf of Mexico from the Atlantic. A
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE to S winds to the northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula with generally moderately wind speeds
elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4 to 5 feet in the western
Gulf of Mexico and 2 to 3 feet in the eastern Gulf.
A ridge from the Atlantic will continue to dominate the Gulf
region over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are
expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula through Thu night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
A weak upper-level trough is inducing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms between Puerto Rico and eastern Cuba,
including Hispaniola and Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen in the southwest Caribbean south of
13.5N west of 76W in association with the monsoon trough. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean with mainly moderate trade winds elsewhere. Fresh winds
may also be occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6 to 8
feet over the central Caribbean with 4 to 6-foot seas elsewhere.
The Atlantic high pressure combined with the Colombian low supports
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean mainly at
night through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night.
An active tropical wave with axis now along 53W is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu. Fresh NE winds are noted
ahead of the wave axis.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin.
West of 55W: A 1025 mb high near 29N59W extends surface ridging
towards the northwest Bahamas. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh
southerly winds offshore north Florida and fresh trade winds north
of Puerto Rico. Winds become gentle closer to the high pressure.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed between Andros
Island Bahamas and Miami Florida.
East of 55W: A surface trough is from 31N45W to 21N43W. An upper-
level low near 31N48W is inducing scattered showers north of 30N
between 43W and 48W. Ridging prevails across the remainder of the
eastern Atlantic. Winds near the coast of Morocco are strong to
near-gale force from the north. Seas of 3 to 5 feet prevail
across the subtropical Atlantic north of 23N with 5 to 7 ft seas
across the tropical Atlantic.
Forecast west of 65W: Fresh S to SW winds are expected across the
waters off NE Florida through tonight, ahead of a frontal
boundary located over the southeastern United States. Expect
scattered showers and tstorms this afternoon and evening in waters
to the east of northern Florida. A surface ridge will continue to
dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola and
adjacent waters, including approaches to the Windward Passage
through the end of the week.
$$
Hagen/Chan/Nepaul
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jun 26 08:54:00 2021
639
AXNT20 KNHC 260926
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 11N east of
32W. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing a tropical
cyclone within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook at
http://www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 09N between 40W and 44W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed
from 07N to 09N between 52W and 56W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from Puerto Rico
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection behind
this wave is impacting waters around the Leeward Islands.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the NW Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Cuba.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 05N22W to 05N37W. A segment of the ITCZ is
analyzed from 04N44W to 04N50W. Aside from convection associated
with the previous described tropical waves, activity associated
with the monsoon trough and ITCZ has diminished this morning.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough located over the central Gulf from 26N87W to
21N90W is inducing scattered moderate convection over mainly the
SE Gulf from 22N to 27W between 82W and 88W. Generally moderate SE
winds prevail over the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, highest
close to the Texas coast.
For the forecast, the trough will move west through the NW Gulf
through the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms
as well as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE
winds will persist from early to mid week between a trough over
the far southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western
Atlantic.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Due to a relatively weak pressure gradient, moderate trades are
occurring over most of the basin, except gentle SE winds in the
NW Caribbean and S of 11N. Seas average 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted over Haiti and the Windward Passage.
An additional area of scattered moderate convection, associated
with the E Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted south of 12N between
the Colombia/Venezuela border and 80W.
For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean will move westward across the basin through Mon. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south
central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and
seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week
as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the
wake of the tropical wave.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak surface trough off the N Florida coast from 30N78W to
28N78W is no longer producing any significant convection. To the
east, a deep layer trough from 30N62W to 26N65W is producing
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 30N
between 60W and 67W. Fresh E winds are occurring with this trough
as well. Elsewhere across the basin, gentle to moderate trades
prevail, although southwest of the Canary Islands, fresh NE winds
are observed. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across much of the
tropical Atlantic. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are present SW of the Canary
Islands in the area of fresh winds.
For the forecast W of 65W, the trough S of Bermuda will move
across the region through Tue, followed by weak high pressure
through the middle of next week. Generally moderate east wind will
prevail.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jun 26 16:59:00 2021
779
AXNT20 KNHC 262128
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W. A surface low pressure
of 1009 mb is centered where the wave and monsoon trough
intersect. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
from 02N to 14N between 24W to 32W. Some slow development of the
low will be possible over the next several days while the
disturbance moves generally westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This
tropical wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at
http://www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 17N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward and
moving W near 10 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from 20N southward and
moving W near 5 to 10 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of
this wave.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from western Cuba
southward and moving W near 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted
across the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N between 79W and 83W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W to low pres near 09N28W to 06N42W. Aside from
convention noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N E of
20W to the coast of Africa.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is located over the Gulf from 27N89W to 20N92W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm
east of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted
east of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds west of the
trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over much of the Gulf
waters, except the SW Gulf where seas are in the 2-3 ft range.
For the forecast, a trough over the south-central Gulf will move
west through the NW Gulf through late Sun, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with
it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist from early to mid
week between a trough over the far southeast Gulf and high
pressure over the western Atlantic.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the Caribbean,
except for the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
over the south central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next
week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will
increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle
of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into
the basin.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from 31N66W to 25N70W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm east
of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft
are in the vicinity of the trough. Elsewhere moderate to fresh
winds prevail across much of the discussion waters. Seas of 3-5
ft prevail over the waters north of 20N, and 4-6 ft south of 20N.
For the forecast W of 65W, the trough north of 24N between 65W
and 70W will move across the region through Tue, followed by weak
high pressure through the middle of next week.
$$
AL
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From
Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 27 08:47:00 2025
731
AXNT20 KNHC 270812
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of , Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04S to 04N between 15W and 40W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 3-5 ft prevail over the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds,
and seas of 1-3 ft are over the eastern Gulf.
For the forecast, a weak and mostly dry cold front will move off
the Texas coast this morning. The front is expected to reach the
southeastern Gulf tonight. Fresh northerly winds west of the front
will diminish Fri afternoon as high pressure builds in the wake
of the front. Southeast winds are expected to increase slightly
over the central and western Gulf starting Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft
are over the western Caribbean.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia will
strengthen toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern
Caribbean through Fri as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. These
winds will gradually expand in coverage through the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to develop in the
lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extending from 31N57W to 25N65W becomes stationary
to the eastern tip of Cuba. Moderate winds are within 90 NM either
side of the front. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere W of the
font. Seas of 6-8 ft are in the vicinity of the front N of 28N.
Elsewhere W of the front, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft generally prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. The next cold
front will move offshore the southeastern United States tonight.
This front will reach from near 31N73W to east- central Cuba early
Fri and from near 31N65W to NW Haiti Fri night, then stall and
weaken Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of
the front N of about 27N Fri. High pressure will settle over the
western part of the area Sat, with generally calm conditions over
most of the area. Another cold front will move across the western
and central forecast waters Sun and Sun night, reaching the
eastern part of the area Mon, with fresh to strong north to
northeast winds expected south of about 28N and west of the front.
$$
AL
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