WTIO30 FMEE 061320
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/14/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 50.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 65

24H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASED IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITH A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(1020Z AMSR2).

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A PASSAGE AT MORE THAN 100 KM IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN IF MEDIUM UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED BY A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BRING IT SOUTH OF 25S, FAR FROM THE
INHABITED ISLANDS, ALONG A SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION MIGHT BE
TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW ANTICYCLONE FROM THE
WEST.

IN THE NEXT HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY START DETERIORATING,
DESPITE AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BUT THE LOW MAY
TEMPORARILY AVOID ITS DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY IN THE
SAME DIRECTION. IT COULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE. BY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR AND THE INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO START ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, FOR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, A SIGNIFICANT BUT
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN REUNION ISLAND.
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