AXAU01 APRF 060104
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0104 UTC 06/03/2021

Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 25.8S
Longitude: 95.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [165 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 06/0600: 26.2S 95.9E: 040 [080]: 040 [075]: 990
+12: 06/1200: 26.6S 96.3E: 055 [100]: 040 [075]: 990
+18: 06/1800: 26.9S 96.3E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 992
+24: 07/0000: 27.1S 96.2E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 07/1200: 27.6S 95.7E: 090 [160]: 030 [055]: 997
+48: 08/0000: 28.3S 95.0E: 110 [200]: 025 [045]: 1000
+60: 08/1200: 29.1S 95.0E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 999
+72: 09/0000: 29.5S 94.6E: 170 [315]: 020 [035]: 1002
+96: 10/0000: : : :
+120: 11/0000: : : :

REMARKS:
Partial ASCAT pass at 1530 UTC indicated gales still occurring to the east of the system centre, however an AMSR2 pass at 1853 UTC indicated gales becoming confined to western quadrants, consistent with model guidance.

DVK: separation of cold cloud from LLCC now exceeds 1.25 degrees and so no DT assigned. MET is 1.5 and no PAT is assigned. FT is 1.5 and CI is brought down to 1.5 having been held at 2.0 for 6 hours. Intensity held at 40 knots based on AMSR2 pass but system downgraded to tropical low based on Australian TC definition requiring gales to wrap more than halfway around the centre.

Marian will track south southeast on Saturday under the influence of a mid-latitude trough, before stalling as it loses depth. As it continues to weaken during Sunday the remnants will begin to track toward the southwest and then west under the influence of the ridge to the south. There is consistency in the model guidance that gales will persist on the southwestern side until Sunday morning to to interaction with a ridge to the south.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.
$$
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