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Pacific-EN: Tropical Weat
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 15 01:46:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 141607
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge extends across the
Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough
will continue to support gale force winds across the Tehuantepec
region through early this afternoon with seas to 12 ft. Looking
ahead, gale conditions are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
again beginning late Fri night into Sat, and continuing through
Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vQjVIvL4Lot0QFTPQyeYjOCkk0UR4UTCyN2h8EeOzVumcZ3frwRK-WdSR340Z_6WhcGP89sn$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 06N100W to low pres
near 06N115W to 06N119W. The ITCZ extends from 06N119W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are from 07N to
14N between 104W and 118W, and from 05N to 11N west of 125W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Please
see Special Features section for more details.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected
across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next
several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to
propagate through the waters west of the Baja California
peninsula with seas in the 10-12 ft range reaching already Baja
California Sur as indicated by a buoy earlier this morning. Seas
8 ft or greater will continue through Fri before briefly
subsiding below 8 ft Fri night into early Sat.
A new set of NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California
Norte Sat. This swell will spread across the remainder of the
offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula, once again
increasing seas to 8 ft or greater over these waters through
Sun. A low pressure associated with a cold front will enter the
Baja California Norte offshore waters with fresh to strong winds
on Mon and building seas to 13 ft.
Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin
region of United States is supporting fresh to locally strong NW
winds across the northern and central parts of the Gulf of
California. These winds will diminish Fri evening.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night through the
upcoming weekend. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly light to
gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while
gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south.
Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region continue to
impact the outer portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador. Seas over this area will be in the 8-10 ft range
through tonight before subsiding below 8 ft early Fri. Another
gale force gap wind event over the Tehuantepec region will once
again generate large seas which will propagate into the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat through early Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1019 mb is centered N of the area. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area
are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind
waves.
Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast
region, with seas 8 ft or greater across much of the waters west
of 100W. Another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters
tonight. Seas with this swell will peak to 18-19 ft near 30N140W
early Fri. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain seas
greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W
through the end of the week.
$$
Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 16 02:42:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 152206
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico will move across the basin through early Saturday. Strong
northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela
Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region beginning tonight, and continuing through early Sun. Seas
are expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale conditions.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!olap5k6IviJewbkYUIAKke8u5wn6HXuUJjp8iXEranQf090Q-FCVXKLs9Fp2K29CTHbjL6qg$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to a 1012 low near
06N100W to 07N117W. The ITCZ continues from 07N117W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N
to 09N between 78W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 15N between 90W and 112W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
Mainly light to gentle winds with locally moderate NW to N winds
will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and
SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains in place NW of
the area. NW swell propagating through the waters west of the
Baja California with seas to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft
tonight, then increase again Sat evening as reinforcing NW swell
enters the region. This new swell will spread across the
remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California through
Mon when a center of low pressure NW of Punta Eugenia begin to
move across the northern Baja offshore waters. The low will
deepen and remain nearly stationary through Wed evening and then
gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas to 14 ft are expected over the northern and central Baja
California peninsula offshore waters Mon night through early
Wed.
Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin
region of United States is supporting fresh to strong NW winds
across the northern and central Gulf of California. These winds
will diminish to moderate this evening. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are forecast along the gulf beginning Mon evening
associated with the low developing NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds
will increase to fresh to strong Mon morning and prevail through
Tue morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through
the middle of next week. Large seas to be generated by an
upcoming gale event in the Tehuantepec region will impact the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat and Sun.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of
Panama Mon and Tue next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure well north of the area extends a ridge into the
northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W.
Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell
and NE-E wind waves.
Large long period NW swell will sweep into the NW part of the
forecast waters this evening, with maximum seas to 18-19 ft near
30N140W. Another set of NW swell will increase seas to 20 ft
near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will
maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters
west of 100W through the middle of next week.
$$
Ramos
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 16 20:36:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 161505
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across southern
Mexico will funnel strong winds through the Chivela Pass and
generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
early Sun. Seas are expected to build to 13-14 ft during the
time of gale conditions. Another brief episode of gale force
winds are forecast for late Sun night. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t5wFuQwvnZh6LZJI8h27l_1udp1-Ya1crUQVrKNl_IU_PVJ9nXuHvTTtBvTa9JcFLMFFMOVu$
for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
06N80W to 07N100W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 81W, including the Gulf of
Panama, and from 05N to 11N between 115W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a
ridge remains NW of the area. Offshore seas will build today as
NW swell spreads across the region. The swell will propagate
across the remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja
California through Mon. A low pressure area will develop NW of
Punta Eugenia Mon, and deepen as it meanders west of Baja
California Norte through Wed, then weaken Wed night and Thu.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected east of the
low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Mon night
through Wed.
Gulf of California: Fresh southerly winds will develop along the
Gulf beginning Mon evening, associated with the low developing
NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds will become fresh to strong Tue
morning through early Wed morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through
Wed. Large seas generated by winds in the Tehuantepec region
will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
today through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Panama Mon through Wed night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the
northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 120W. Seas
in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and
NE to E wind waves.
Large long period NW swell in the NW and N-central part of the
forecast waters will subside through tonight as it pushes into
Baja California. Another set of large NW swell will increase seas
to 17-19 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell
will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast
waters west of 100W through the middle of next week.
$$
Lewitsky
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-
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 17 02:39:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 162002
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across southern
Mexico will funnel northerly winds through the Chivela Pass with
gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region through early Sun.
Seas are expected to be up to 12-13 ft during the time of gale
conditions. Another brief episode of gale force winds is
forecast for late Sun night into early Mon. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t_dvG8PQCDHbxt2XVrMEOedaNOyf4kwR8QLKMj_peJg1AjAU9el3ARm_LlbvTk_JUyWR9sIf$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
06N83W to 06N105W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to
07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 116W and 125W, and
from 05N to 10N between 125W and 136W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 07N between 95W and 99W and from
05N to 08N between 138W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a
ridge remains NW of the area. NW swell west of Baja California
will build tonight with reinforcing sets propagating across the
area the middle of next week. A low pressure area will develop NW
of Punta Eugenia Mon, and deepen as it meanders west of Baja
California Norte through Wed, then weaken Wed night and Thu.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected east of the
low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Mon night
through Wed.
Gulf of California: Fresh southerly winds will develop along the
Gulf beginning Mon evening, associated with the low developing
NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds will become fresh to strong Tue
morning through early Wed morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region through
Thu night. Large seas generated by winds in the Tehuantepec
region in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
will subside Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Panama Mon through early Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the
northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 25N west of 120W. Seas
in this area are in the 7-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and
NE to E wind waves.
Large long period NW swell in the NW and N-central part of the
forecast waters will subside through tonight as it pushes into
Baja California. Another set of large NW swell will increase seas
to 16-18 ft near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell
will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast
waters west of 100W through the middle of next week, subsiding by
the end of next week.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 17 17:14:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 170930
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across southern
Mexico will funnel northerly winds through the Chivela Pass with
gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region through early hours of
this morning with seas up to 12 ft. Another brief episode of
gale- force winds is forecast for late Sun night into Mon morning.
Seas are expected to build near 12 ft through Mon. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rQliZ_Nwtq8pBt0tHGkSNycn0mB7owlODuewYbbNBDJOCv3Q7z-cK8jpfZdUYHvGwFGGiRuW$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 05N92W
to 04N105W. The ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 09N120W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
06N to 11N between 111W to 119W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 13N between 118W to 132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a
ridge remains NW of the area. NW swell west of Baja California
will continue to impact the offshore waters through Mon with
reinforcing sets propagating across the area the middle of next
week. A low pressure area will develop NW of Punta Eugenia Mon
and deepen as it meanders west of Baja California Norte through
Wed and weaken by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected near the low, on either side of the Baja
California peninsula, Mon night through Wed.
Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail. By Mon
evening, as the surface low develops NW of Punta Eugenia, fresh
southerly winds will develop in the region. Winds will become
fresh to strong Tue morning through early Wed morning. Gentle to
moderate winds will return by Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds are expected nightly in the Papagayo
region through Thu. Large seas generated by winds in the
Tehuantepec region in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador will subside Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Panama Mon through early Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the
northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 25N west of 115W. Seas
in this area are in the 7-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell and
NE to E wind waves.
The next set of large NW swell will increase seas to 16-18 ft
near 30N140W early this morning. Reinforcing NW swell will
maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters
west of 100W through the middle of next week. Expect seas to
subside by the end of the week.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Jan 18 00:21:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 172008
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure
gradient across the Tehuantepec region will induce gale-force
northerly winds late this evening through Mon morning, with
pulsing fresh to strong winds thereafter through early Fri. Seas
are forecast to build to around 11-12 ft with the gale-force
winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!r0JrLhSttYs7nA-3NsJ6YujwMrxwbD3TC4SRl7eIl8c8bXeC0LDFiZXzpJ1TlVuZGRiehGcJ$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to
05N80W to 08N88W to 05N100W to 09N120W to 08N125W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm north-northeast
of the monsoon trough between 108W and 120W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 127W and 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through Mon evening as a
ridge remains NW of the area. Sets of NW swell west of Baja
California will continue to impact the offshore waters through
the middle of the week. A 1016 mb low pressure area NW of Punta
Eugenia near 29N118.5W will deepen as it meanders west of Baja
California Norte through Wed and weaken by Wed night. Fresh to
possibly strong winds and building seas are expected near the
low, on either side of the Baja California peninsula, Tue through
Wed.
Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail, except locally
moderate N winds in the northern Gulf this afternoon. By Mon
evening, as the surface low begins to deepen NW of Punta Eugenia,
moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the region.
Winds will become fresh to possibly locally strong Tue afternoon
through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate winds will return Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through
early Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Panama tonight through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west
to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed night through
early Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the
northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to
around 20N west of 110W. Seas in this area are in the 7-10 ft
range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves.
Low pressure offshore of southern California and Baja California
Norte will support an area of fresh to strong northerly winds on
the western side of the low to 26N between 120W and 132W Mon
evening through Wed.
A large NW swell has pushed southeast of 30N140W today with seas
up to 17 ft near 30N138W. NW swell will maintain seas greater
than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W through
Tue night. The swell will subside somewhat south of 20N by early
Wed, while fresh northerly swell develops north of 20N in
association with the deepening area of low pressure. Seas will
subside throughout the open waters by the end of the week, with
the next potential northerly swell event arriving by the start of
the weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Jan 18 21:17:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 181611
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure
gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to support
minimal gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf north of 15N
this morning. Peak seas are around 11 ft across and just
downstream of the gale-force winds. The supporting high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico is weakening and will shift NE through
Tue and act to gradually weaken the local pressure gradient.
Winds across Tehuantepec are expected to diminish below gale
force around noontime today. Expect fresh to strong winds to
pulse each night thereafter through early Fri with downstream seas
peaking at 8 to 10 ft each early morning. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!ssNyXcAYoqWhKABAUetLFkPi9iT5O8uEOLm5uHlCAlIO20yHgmfzqqSfBySdQlaAP6u0ar62$
for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 08N84W to 05N103W to
low pres 1010 mb near 07.5N118W. The ITCZ continues from near
08N123W to 09N127W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 88W and 107W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N
between 112W to 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A gale warning remains in effect for the Tehuantepec region this
morning. Please see Special Features section for more details.
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through this evening as
a weak ridge remains well NW of the area. A 1012 mb low pressure
area NW of Punta Eugenia near 29N119W will continue deepen as it
meanders west of Baja California Norte through Wed and weaken by
Wed night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
near the low Tue through Wed. Otherwise, large NW swell
propagating into the waters west of Baja California will impact
the offshore waters through midweek.
Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf
this morning. By Tue, as the surface low begins to deepen NW of
Punta Eugenia, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in
the region. Winds will become fresh to possibly locally strong
Tue evening through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate winds will
return Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region
through early Fri. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to strong
across the Gulf of Panama through early Thu. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly
from west to east in mixed long period S and NW swell Wed through
early Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the
northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to
near 18N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft
range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves and are
expected to persist through midweek.
The low pressure offshore of Baja California Norte will support
an area of fresh to strong northerly winds on the western side of
the low, N of 25N between 120W and 131W, Mon evening through
Wed. Seas will build to 14 ft through Wed.
Large NW swell continues moving south and east of 30N140W with
seas up to 14 ft near 30N130W. NW swell will maintain seas
greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of 100W
through Tue night. The swell will subside south of 20N and west
of 115W by Thu, while fresh northerly swell develops north of 20N
in association with the deepening area of low pressure. Seas
will subside throughout the open waters by the end of the week,
with the next potential northerly swell event arriving by the
weekend.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jan 19 03:03:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 182216
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have
diminished below gale force this afternoon, and verified by
1627 UTC ASCAT data. The Gale Warning for the area has been
discontinued. See below for more information on expected area
conditions.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 08N83W to 05N103W to
low pres 1010 mb near 07.5N118W. The ITCZ continues from near
08N123W to 09N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N between 88W and
107W, and from 05.5N to 11.5N between 110W to 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Variable winds less than 15 kt will prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico through this evening as
weak low pressure extends along the offshore waters of Baja
California. A 1011 mb low pressure area near 29N118.5W will
drift eastward tonight, with gentle to moderate westerly winds
expected to develop across the waters south of Punta Eugenia
overnight. Deep layered low pressure near 31N122W will sink
southward tonight through Tuesday and intensify, and develop a
surface low across the outer waters of Baja California Norte. The
weak low will become absorbed as this occurs, with fresh south
to southwest winds developing across most of the Baja waters by
Tue afternoon. This new low will then shift slowly eastward Tue
night through Wed producing strong south to southwest winds
through Wed afternoon, before the low begins to weaken and winds
diminish rather quickly through late Thu. The much weakened low
is expected to move onshore across Baja Norte Thu evening. Large
NW swell propagating through the Baja waters during this time
will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft through late Wed, and 11 ft
or greater across the outer waters of Baja Norte.
Gentle southerly winds generally prevail across the Gulf of
California waters this afternoon, as low pressure prevails
offshore of Baja. As the surface low pressure develops offshore
of Baja Norte on Tue, south to southwest winds inside the Gulf
will begin to freshen, and become fresh to locally strong across
central and north portions Tue afternoon through Wed. Seas will
build to near 6 ft during this time. Winds and seas will diminish
significantly on Thu.
The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to
gradually weaken this afternoon, and continues to support
strong northerly winds across the Gulf north of 13N, where seas
are 8-11 ft. The supporting high pressure across the Gulf of
Mexico will shift NE through Tue and act to gradually weaken the
local pressure gradient. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse
each night tonight through early Fri with downstream seas
peaking at 8 to 10 ft each early morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh offshore gap winds will pulse to strong across the
Papagayo region each night through early Fri. Moderate northerly
winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through
early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast
elsewhere. Seas will build slightly from west to east in mixed
long period S and NW swell Wed through early Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area extends a ridge into the
northwest forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to
near 18N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft
range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves and are
expected to persist through midweek.
The developing nw low pressure offshore of Baja California Norte
on Tue will support an area of fresh to strong northerly winds
on the western side of the low, N of 25N between 120W and 131W,
early Tue through Wed. Seas will build to 14 ft through Wed as
NW swell mixes with the wind wave generated by the low pressure.
Large NW swell continues moving south and east across the open
waters of the northeast Pacific, with seas up to 14 ft near
30N126W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much
of the forecast waters west of 100W through Tue night. The swell
will subside south of 20N and west of 115W by Thu, while fresh
northerly swell develops north of 20N in association with the
deepening area of low pressure. Seas will subside throughout the
open waters by the end of the week, with the next significant
northerly swell event expected to arrive by the weekend.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jan 21 01:10:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 201615
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 05N97W to 08N114W to
04.5N129W to 06N135W. The ITCZ continues from 06N135W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north
of the monsoon trough from 07N to 20N between 102W and 110W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail on either side of the
Baja California peninsula, in association with a 1005 mb surface
low near 28.5N120W. This low is expected to drift eastward and
rapidly weaken today, producing fresh south to southwest winds
across the region through this afternoon. Winds are expected to
diminish quickly tonight and Thu as the low moves onshore across
Baja California Norte. Large NW swell propagating through the
Baja waters during this time will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft
through Thu, except in the Gulf of California.
Strong northerly winds are expected to continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region as high pressure continues to extend into
the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
will shift NE and gradually weaken the local pressure gradient
through Thu. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse to just below
gale force again tonight, and then to near 30 kt nightly through
early Fri with downstream seas peaking at 10 ft each morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo
region at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse
to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Seas will build slightly
from west to east in mixed long period S and W swell through
early Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A deep-layer 1005 mb low pressure area moved moved southward
overnight and is centered offshore of Baja California Norte near
28.5N120W. This low will continue to produce strong winds around
the periphery during the next 6 to 12 hours. Maximum seas of
around 16 ft are found just to the NW of the low near 29N125W,
in the area of strongest N winds. The low will drift eastward
and rapidly weaken later today.
High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 22N
west of 130W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
through Thu.
Large NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters
of the northeast Pacific with seas up to 17 ft near the surface
low with gale-force winds near 29N122W. NW swell will maintain
seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of
115W through Thu. Seas will subside across the open waters by the
end of the week, with the next significant north to northwest
swell event expected to arrive this weekend.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 22 00:01:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 211603
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N100W to 05N120W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection si from 01N to 07N E of
81W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between
81W and 85W, and from 05N to 14N between 110W and 115W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1014 mb low pressure area centered near 30N117W is expected to
drift eastward and weaken today, with moderate winds behind it
diminishing. NW swell propagating through the Baja California Sur
offshore waters will maintain seas to 8 ft through this evening.
Strong high pressure building along western Mexico and will
support moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Jalisco and
Colima, Mexico this evening through the weekend.
A cold front will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters
on Saturday and will support moderate to fresh winds in this
region as well as over the northern Gulf of California. Large NW
swell will follow the front along with fresh NW winds increasing
to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia Mon morning.
Strong to near gale force northerly winds will start to diminish
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Strong winds will
gradually diminish afterwards through Fri.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region
at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to
fresh across the Gulf of Panama each evening and night through
Fri then remain moderate through early next week. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Seas will build slightly
from in mixed long period SW and W swell through early Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 16N
west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range in a mix
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
through Fri.
NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters of
the northeast Pacific with seas up to 11 ft west of the surface
low near 30N117W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft
over much of the forecast waters west of 115W today. Seas will
subside across the open waters by the end of the week, with the
next significant north to northwest swell event expected to
arrive this weekend.
$$
Ramos
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From
Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Jan 22 00:01:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 211603
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N100W to 05N120W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection si from 01N to 07N E of
81W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between
81W and 85W, and from 05N to 14N between 110W and 115W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1014 mb low pressure area centered near 30N117W is expected to
drift eastward and weaken today, with moderate winds behind it
diminishing. NW swell propagating through the Baja California Sur
offshore waters will maintain seas to 8 ft through this evening.
Strong high pressure building along western Mexico and will
support moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Jalisco and
Colima, Mexico this evening through the weekend.
A cold front will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters
on Saturday and will support moderate to fresh winds in this
region as well as over the northern Gulf of California. Large NW
swell will follow the front along with fresh NW winds increasing
to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia Mon morning.
Strong to near gale force northerly winds will start to diminish
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Strong winds will
gradually diminish afterwards through Fri.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region
at night through Sun. Moderate northerly winds will pulse to
fresh across the Gulf of Panama each evening and night through
Fri then remain moderate through early next week. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Seas will build slightly
from in mixed long period SW and W swell through early Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge into the northwest
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the convergence zone to near 16N
west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range in a mix
of NW swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
through Fri.
NW swell continues moving southeast across the open waters of
the northeast Pacific with seas up to 11 ft west of the surface
low near 30N117W. NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft
over much of the forecast waters west of 115W today. Seas will
subside across the open waters by the end of the week, with the
next significant north to northwest swell event expected to
arrive this weekend.
$$
Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 23 00:35:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 221559
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N90W to 06N109W to
05N117W. The ITCZ continues from 05N117W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted on satellite imagery from 03N to 06N
between 78W and 81W, from 02N to 04N between 86W and 90W, and
from 01N to 14N between 136W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Light to gentle winds prevail over most of the offshore waters
of Mexico. Seas are subsiding across the region in response to
the lighter winds. A weak cold front will enter the Baja
California Norte offshore waters on Sat with fresh W to NW winds
behind it. A stronger cold front will follow on Mon, with large
NW swell expected west of Baja California lasting through Tue
night before subsiding Wed. Winds will increase west of Baja
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Sun night
as the front approaches, then remain fresh to strong through
Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across most of
the regional offshore waters. Offshore seas are generally 6-7 ft,
except downstream of the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca, where
seas are reaching 8-9 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds
are expected across the Papagayo region through Tue. Fresh
northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama Sat night
through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough is analyzed from 09N118W to 12N119W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 11N to 14N between 113W and
121W.
A weak cold front extends from 30N133W to 29N136W. This weak cold
front will move E toward Baja California Norte on Sat. Aside from
the weak cold front, high pressure north of the area extends a
ridge southward to near 16N. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 15N west of 125W.
Seas in this area are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of NW
swell and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist
through the weekend.
NW swell continues to subside across the open waters of the
northeast Pacific with seas of 7-8 ft west of 115W. The next
significant north to northwest swell event is expected to arrive
this weekend, followed by larger NW swell arriving on Mon,
associated with a cold front moving into Baja California Norte.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 23 17:13:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 230910
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 04N95W to 06N109W to
05N120W. The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of the ITCZ
between 127W and 134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 138W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Scatterometer data shows gentle winds over most of the offshore
waters of Mexico except near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally
5 to 7 ft. A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte
on Mon, with large long-period NW swell expected west of Baja
California through Tue night. Winds will increase west of Baja
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Sun night as
the front approaches and remain fresh to strong through Tue.
There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of
Punta Eugenia Mon through early Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds across most of
the regional offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-6 ft. Fresh
to occasionally strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo
region through Wed. Fresh northerly winds are expected across
the Gulf of Panama Sat night through Sun night. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge southward to
near 15N. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north
of the ITCZ to near 20N west of 120W. Seas in this area are in
the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell and NE to E wind waves,
which is expected to persist through the weekend.
The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected
to arrive later today, followed by large, long-period NW swell
arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja
California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of
the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas
are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 24 02:03:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 232204
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A strong cold front
will move through the northern Gulf of California Mon. Behind the
front, strong to near gale force W winds are expected across the
northern Gulf of California Mon. A localized area of gale force
winds to 35 kt is forecast near the east coast of Baja California
Norte from 29.5N to 30.5N. Winds will diminish below gale Mon
night but remain strong through Tue. Seas will reach 8 to 10 ft
Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tQi-xVulUEApceyFN1bgDYeEeCY3nZ3i0_XtPCK2i3UERhLO8y2ENvPr7DuUmtIONtBMwn7V$
for more details.
Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front
will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long-
period NW swell expected west of Baja California Mon through Tue
night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of
Baja California Norte Mon afternoon through Mon night. There is a
significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta
Eugenia Mon through early Tue. Near gale force NW winds are
expected in the area, with gales to 35 kt Mon night north of 32N,
offshore the California/Mexico border.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 05N80W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 06N110W to 03N130W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 113W
and 119W, and from 03N to 14N between 130W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The latest ASCAT data show mainly gentle to moderate wind speeds
offshore of Mexico, except for moderate to locally fresh N winds
near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 5 to 6 ft. Off Baja
California Norte, fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected
tonight through Sun morning. Seas will increase to 8 to 11 ft
offshore Baja California Norte late tonight.
A strong cold front will bring very large swell west of Baja
California Norte Mon-Tue. Near gale force winds are expected both
west and east of Baja California Norte. See the Special Features
section above for details. Winds and seas will diminish Wed.
Late in the week, a gale event is possible in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec beginning on Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle winds prevail across most of the regional offshore waters
with seas of 5-6 ft. The exception is the Papagayo region, where
fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected through Wed.
Fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama
tonight through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1037 mb centered northwest of the area near
37N146W extends a ridge southward to near 15N. The gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N west of 120W.
Seas in this area are in the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell
and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist through the
weekend.
The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected
to arrive late tonight, followed by large, long-period NW swell
arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja
California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of
the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas
are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 24 16:57:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 240804
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale
Warning: A frontal trough moving across Baja California Norte
will support fresh to strong winds north of Punta Eugenia and in
the northern Gulf of California through late this morning. A
strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon.
Gale force winds are forecast north of 29N west of Baja
California Norte and also in the northern Gulf of California Mon
and Mon night with fresh to strong elsewhere north of Punta
Eugenia through Tue. Seas will reach 8-10 ft in the northern Gulf
of California Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas
Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!r03Vj5_0AzlgRgtfgePrEOoQX3NR5p5wGWTtOc4kKuhdvQ59UKwWwJlq90T9ZiUuQ9dF0FCq$
for more
details.
Ashfall Advisory: Sangay Volcano in Ecuador at position 02.0S
78.3W is currently in a state of unrest and has produced a plume
of volcanic ash extending westward offshore of Ecuador just north
of the Gulf of Guayaquil. Mariners traveling in the vicinity of
Sangay Volcano are urged to exercise caution. If mariners
encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are
encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center by calling +1-305-229-4424. Please see the latest Volcanic
Ash Advisory issued by the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory
Center at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html__;!!DZ3fjg!r03Vj5_0AzlgRgtfgePrEOoQX3NR5p5wGWTtOc4kKuhdvQ59UKwWwJlq90T9ZiUuQ5gQaXKg$
for more
details.
Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front
will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long-
period NW swell expected west of Baja California Mon through Tue
night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of
Baja California Norte Mon afternoon through Mon night. There is a
significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta
Eugenia Mon through Tue night. Please see the latest High Seas
Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!r03Vj5_0AzlgRgtfgePrEOoQX3NR5p5wGWTtOc4kKuhdvQ59UKwWwJlq90T9ZiUuQ9dF0FCq$
for more
details and refer to local statements issued by your national
meteorological service.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N75W to 06N78W to 04N92W to 05N104W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N104W to 08N117W to 05N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 02N
between 79W and 82W, from 07N to 12N between 117W and 124W, from
04N to 08N between 124W and 130W, and from 04N to 11N between
130W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the northern Gulf of California and west of
Baja California Norte, as well as details on an upcoming very
large NW swell event.
Mainly gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail offshore of
Mexico, except for moderate to locally fresh N winds near Cabo
Corrientes as well as northwest of Punta Eugenia. Seas are
generally 4-6 ft, except building seas of 7-10 ft prevail in
incoming NW swell northwest of Punta Eugenia.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed.
Gale force northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Wed night through the end of next week. Another
large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu and
Thu night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on an Ashfall
Advisory in effect for the offshore waters of Ecuador.
Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected across the
Papagayo region through the next several days, with the most
significant winds expected Thu night. Seas will occasionally
build to 5-6 ft with the pulsing winds, except 7-10 ft Thu night.
Fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama
region have diminished to moderate to fresh, while seas of 5-7
ft linger. Moderate to fresh winds and 4-6 ft seas are forecast
for the rest of today through Mon night. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere.
Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region may spread across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge
southeastward all the way to near Cabo Corrientes. The gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, except
locally fresh to strong. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft
range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The pressure
gradient is forecast to tighten slightly today through early
next week allowing for trades to increase to fresh to strong.
A NW-N swell event is arriving S of 30N with seas currently 8-12
ft north of 25N. This will be followed by larger, long-period NW
swell arriving on Mon, associated with a strong cold front
moving into Baja California Norte. The swell will spread
southward across much of the forecast area north of 10N and west
of 110W. Highest seas are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja
California.
Looking ahead, another strong cold front may drop south of 30N by
early Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it
through Thu night. Another set of large northerly swell may
accompany this system, propagating southward through the end of
next week.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 16 23:42:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 161608
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 03N89W to 02N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N101W to 06N111W, then west of a trough
from 07N114W to 06N129W to 06N131W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 82W and 90W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure centered
near 32N136W and a surface trough across the Gulf of California
is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 8-11 ft range off the Baja California peninsula,
with seas 8 ft or greater extending southeast to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft elsewhere off the
coast of Mexico, with long- period SW swell persists across the
waters south of Cabo Corrientes.
Winds will increase to fresh to strong off Baja California Norte
tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in
the Gulf of California Thu night into Fri. Large NW swell
prevails off Baja California, with seas 8 ft or greater extending
southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. The swell will continue
spreading southeast through the week, reaching the waters off
Cabo Corrientes today, where the NW swell will mix with SW swell.
Farther south, high pressure building in the wake of a cold
front over the Gulf of Mexico will support strong gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today.
Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high
pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late
week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to
start late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds
will increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This situation
will be monitored over the next two to three days, and a storm
warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners planning
to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this
week should keep aware of this developing forecast.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo the next few
days before increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sat
night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama through
Fri night before increasing to fresh Sat night. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate SW swell will continue
across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for
the next several days. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 31N135W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of
120W.
NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters west of a line from the Revillagigedo Islands to 05N115W.
This swell will continue to spread southeastward, with seas of 8
ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west
of 105W by this afternoon before subsiding through the end of
the week. The NW swell will mix with SW swell east of 120W.
Looking ahead, the next set of northerly swell may arrive this
weekend.
$$
Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 18 00:15:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 172021
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A large area of high pressure
will build north of the area following a strong cold front slowly
moving through the Gulf of Mexico later through late week.
Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start
late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will
increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night, when seas will peak
near 23 ft. There is a possibility that winds may briefly reach
minimal storm force on Friday. The situation will be monitored
over the next few days, and a storm warning may be required.
Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing
forecast. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the
Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west
as 105W by Sun.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tWdzm2W4OLohqhJbqendeS6mAA_E9-ZUP2c1kG_UdXruNV-DaUVMbHVMiCii9a99vC6pdMWF$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N76W to 05N79W to 07N84W to 03N101W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N101W to 07N117W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N
between 77W and 79W, and from 08N to 13N between 108W and 112W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm north of the
ITCZ between 114W and 131W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun.
Looking ahead, winds may reach gale force again early next week.
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered just north
of the area and low pressure over the SW United States is
relaxing allowing for fresh to strong winds off the coast of
Baja California Norte to diminish to moderate to fresh. Seas
remain in the the 8-13 ft range, but will gradually subside with
the winds diminishing. Moderate winds prevail off Baja California
Sur, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas in the 8-9 ft
range in NW swell off Baja California Sur extends SE to off the
coast of Cabo Corrientes. This swell will subside through the end
of the week. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of
California Thu night and Fri, and then again Sun through Mon
night. These winds may bleed through Baja California passages
into the Pacific waters.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo the next
couple of days before increasing to fresh to strong Fri through
Mon night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama
through Fri night before increasing to fresh to locally strong
Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
will prevail, except gentle to moderate offshore of Ecuador.
Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central
American offshore waters for the next several days. Large seas
generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador Fri through early Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered just north
of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area north
of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Trades will increase to
fresh to strong this weekend as high pressure north of the area
strengthens.
NW swell, with seas in the 7-9 ft range, is propagating across
the waters, covering much of the waters from 05N to 22N and west
of 105W. This swell will slowly subside through the end of the
week. A new set of northerly swell will arrive Sat night through
early next week.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 18 23:46:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 181542
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A large and strong area of
high pressure is forecast to build north of the area behind a
strong cold front that is moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start
overnight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will
increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night, when seas will peak
between 20 and 22 ft. Some of the models suggest that the winds
could briefly reach minimal storm force on Fri., and there is a
chance that a storm warning could be issued if the models trend
higher with the winds. Regardless of the exact strength of the
winds, mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec over the next few days should be aware of this
significant wind event. Large seas generated from this strong
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the
Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west
as 105W by Sun.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!s8xLr3BaA3GOt4_Jv4u0x-W9pKFP1j8eIaCg8-3vXzJsaBfX0k15ZzEky61X_MoPUajzNlmW$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N85W to 02N99W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N99W to 07N115W to 03N135W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between
108W and 116W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun.
Looking ahead, winds may reach gale force again early next week.
The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high centered near
32N132W and low pressure over central Mexico is supporting
moderate winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range, but they should subside through the day today and are forecast
to fall below 8 ft on Fri. Moderate winds also prevail off Baja
California Sur, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of California tonight and
Fri, and then again Sun through Mon night. These winds may funnel
through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo
each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the
Gulf of Panama through Fri night before increasing to fresh to
locally strong Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds will prevail, except gentle to moderate offshore of
Ecuador. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial
and Central American offshore waters for the next several days.
Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through early Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The combination of high pressure north of the area and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds
across the deep tropics west of about 130W. A much stronger high
is forecast to build north of the area this weekend, causing
strong trades and higher seas across much of the area W of about
120W late this weekend and early next week.
NW swell continues to subside over the area. A new set of
northerly swell will arrive Sat night through early next week.
$$
Cangialosi
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 20 02:37:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 192157
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure
building southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains is resulting in strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gale gap
winds These winds are producing wave heights in the range of
14-22 ft. It is possible that these winds, may at times, briefly
attain wind gusts to storm force through tonight before they
begin to diminish Sat night. As the high pressure gradually
begins to weaken, the resultant tight gradient will begin to
slacken allowing for these winds to diminish to minimal gale
force early on Sun and to below gale force during Sun afternoon.
Wave heights produced by these winds are are forecast to lower to
the range of 10-13 ft early on Sun. Mariners planning to
navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through
Sat night should be aware of this significant wind event as it
could lead to hazardous marine conditions. Large seas generated
from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread
well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater
reaching 107W by Sun.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!s3MO6FUHyN6VBpbjXXKcSlJV3NbhcHUwiPQs-lbV14vaC2ct2ru3eLXvM2u7srjbbkuCuNun$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low over northwestern
Colombia southwestward to across southern Costa Rica and to
09N84W to 04N91W and to 03N103W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N117W to 06N126W
to 05N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 11N between 107W-113W, from 06N-11N between
116W-123W and from 06N-10N between 123W-128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.
ASCAT data passes from this morning shows moderate to fresh
northwest winds west of the Baja California Peninsula along with
waves of 8-9 ft. These winds will diminish to mainly moderate
speeds by this evening, with wave heights lowering to less than 8
ft. Fresh to strong winds are over the central and southern Gulf
of California as noted in the latest ASCAT pass over that region.
These winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds early on
Sat, but are expected to materialize over just about the entire
Gulf from Sun through mid-week. Wave model guidance is indicating
that wave heights could reach 9 ft in the northern Gulf on Wed
and Wed night and also 9 ft in the central Gulf section on Sun
night. These winds could funnel through the Baja California
passages into the Pacific waters at times.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo
region each night during the next several days. Winds will pulse
to fresh to locally strong speeds across the Gulf of Panama
through mid-week. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere.
Large seas generated by a strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador through early Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The combination of very strong high pressure of 1037 mb well
north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the deep tropics
west of 120W. Strong high pressure will build north of the area
this weekend leading to strong trade winds and higher wave
heights over much of the area west of 120W Sun through Mon.
Northwest swell continues to subside over the area. A new set of
northerly swell will propagate through the north-central and
northeast waters on Sat and continue through early next week as
it shifts westward while subsiding some. Yet another set of
northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast
waters Tue night through Wed night.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 20 15:43:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 200905
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure along the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre is producing near storm-force
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, based on scatterometer data
of 45 kt. Wave heights in the 14-22 ft range. Winds will diminish
to minimal gale force early Sun, and fall below gale force by Sun
afternoon. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region through tonight should be aware of this
significant wind event and hazardous marine conditions. Large
seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind
event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas
8 ft or greater reaching 107W by Sun.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uv4mG5Yw7XaE75qO6ekQaYvmqL2eYCESmMemyE1OKrvP5HJtqQsZbdfnXc8K9K3s3-IkRztO$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N94W to 05N103W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N103W to 06N110W to 07N121W to 05N132W and
to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 10N between 111W and 119W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.
Scatterometer data shows moderate northwest winds on either side
of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to strong N to NW winds
are expected north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. Winds in the
Gulf of California will become fresh to strong Sun through Mon.
Wave model guidance is indicating that wave heights could reach 8
ft in the central Gulf on Sun night. These winds could funnel
through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at
times. Northwest swell will build west of Baja California this
weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across the
region, and seas area in the 5-7 ft range. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region each night during
the next several days. North winds will pulse to fresh across
the Gulf of Panama through mid-week. Light to gentle winds will
continue elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The combination of high pressure north of the area and lower
pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds across
the deep tropics west of 120W. High pressure will build north of
the area this weekend, leading to strong trades and higher wave
heights over much of the area west of 120W Sun through Mon.
Northwest swell will propagate into the northern and northeast
waters today, and continue through early next week. Another set
of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast
waters Tue night through Wed night.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 21 02:09:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 202240 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021
Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America,
Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section to include
Gulf of Panama fresh to strong winds
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging
along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico
in combination with lower pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region is maintaining strong gale force north to
northeast gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights
with these winds are in the 10-15 ft range. The strong high
pressure will begin to weaken as it shifts eastward through Sun
evening. This will allow for the very tight pressure gradient in
place over southeastern Mexico to begin to relax. The winds will
respond to this by diminishing to minimal gale force speeds late
tonight into Sun, and to below gale force early on Sun afternoon.
Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with
seas 8 ft or greater reaching to near 108W by Sun afternoon.
Latest model guidance suggests that the next Gulf of Tehuantepec
strong gap wind event is expected to commence early on Mon,
reaching gale force by late Mon morning or early Mon afternoon.
The guidance indicates that this could be a strong gale wind
event by late Mon afternoon or early in the evening that lasts
into early Tue afternoon.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pnIDueJzREEC-ww9vCvy-OzGe48U4U8J9oWL3RtvnHWb1vEIQcWLj7xzH6xf-1_Fovjd7YXX$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low over northwestern
Colombia to 08N78W to 06N90W and 03N101W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N113W to
03N121W to 02N130W and to beyond the area at 02N140W. No
significant convection is noted.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale event.
Latest ASCAT data reveal gentle to moderate northwest winds west
Baja California Peninsula and south of Punta Eugenia, and fresh
to strong northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia. Light and
variable winds are over the central and southern sections of
the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate southeast to
south are over the northern Gulf of California. Winds over the
Gulf of California will become fresh to strong Sun through Mon.
Wave model guidance is indicating that wave heights could reach 8
ft in the central Gulf on Sun night. These winds could funnel
through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at
times. A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the
waters west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. This
swell continue to advance southward reaching to near 23N Sun,
then subside Mon night through Tue, before another set of
northerly swell begins to propagate through those same waters
from late Tue night through Thu, then begin to decay.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected
Latest ASCAT data passes generally indicate gentle to moderate
northeast winds north of the trough described under the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section and gentle to moderate south to
southwest winds south of the same trough. Wave heights in this
part of the discussion area in the range of 5-7 ft due to a south
to southwest swell south of the trough and to mixed northeast
and northwest swell north of same trough, where swell is
propagating away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions.
Strong high pressure building southeastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea will act to bring pulsing fresh to strong
northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region each night
during the next several days. North winds will pulse to fresh
speeds across the Gulf of Panama through Sun, then to fresh to
strong speeds Sun night and early on Mon, before diminishing to
mainly fresh speeds Mon afternoon. These winds are forecast to
pulse back up to fresh to strong speeds late Mon night into Tue.
Wave heights are forecast to build to 8 ft with these winds.
Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere. Large wave
heights generated by the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind
event will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador through early Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and
lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, namely
north of 07N and west of 120W. More consistent strong northeast
to east winds are occurring north of 24N, where wave heights have
build to the range of 8-10 ft. These conditions are forecast to
continue into Mon morning, before they begin to improve. Northwest
swell that is propagating into the northern and northeast waters
will continue to do so through early next week. Another set of
northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast
waters Tue night through Wed night.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed from 06N-12N
between 106W-113W.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 21 16:17:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 210931
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging
along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico
in combination with low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region is maintaining gale force north to northeast gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights with these winds are
in the 10-14 ft range. Strong high pressure will weaken as it
shifts eastward through Sun evening. This will allow for the winds
to drop below gale force speeds by mid Sun, but remain strong Sun
afternoon. Large seas generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event will continue to spread well away from the Tehuantepec
area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching to near 106W by Sunday
afternoon.
Latest model guidance continue to suggest the next Gulf of
Tehuantepec strong gap wind event is expected to commence Mon,
reaching gale force by late Mon morning. The guidance indicates
that this could be a strong gale wind event that could last until
early Wednesday.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sZuCb0iZrPcnmMJzQeizxCGYbVJy3rCPkM-I0DMiGraeCka20m57s7YiR4RK0FJFUMxyQHK0$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low over northwestern
Colombia to a second 1009 mb low near 09N87W to 01N101W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ from 01N102W to 01N129W. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of the 1009 mb low and from
01N to 04N between 102W to 107W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale event.
ASCAT data reveal fresh to strong northwest winds north of Punta
Eugenia, while light and variable winds are over the central and
southern sections of the Gulf of California. Winds over the Gulf
of California will become fresh to strong Sun afternoon into Mon.
Wave model guidance is indicating that wave heights could be near
8 ft in the central Gulf on Sun night. These winds could funnel
through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at
times. Models also indicate the potential for these winds to pick
up again by Thu. A large set of northwest swell is propagating
through the waters west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia.
This swell will continue to advance southward reaching to near
24N Sun, then subside Mon night through Tue, before another set
of northerly swell begins to propagate through those same waters
from late Tue night through Thu, then begin to decay.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
ASCAT data passes indicate moderate to fresh northeast winds
north of the trough and gentle to moderate south to southwest
winds south of the same trough. Wave heights in this part of the
discussion area in the range of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest
swell south of the trough and to mixed northeast and northwest
swell north of same trough, where swell is propagating away from
the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high pressure
building southeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will
bring pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds over the Gulf of
Papagayo region each night through next week. North winds will
pulse moderate to locally fresh speeds across the Gulf of Panama
through Sun, before diminishing to mainly fresh speeds Mon in the
afternoon. These winds are forecast to pulse back to fresh to
strong speeds late Mon night into Tue. Wave heights are forecast
to build to 8 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds will
continue elsewhere. Large wave heights generated by the ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event will propagate through the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and
lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, mainly
north of 14N and west of 130W. More consistent strong northeast
to east winds are occurring north of 20N, where wave heights have
build to the range of 8-11 ft. These conditions are forecast to
continue into Mon morning, before they begin to improve. Northwest
swell that is propagating into the northern and northeast waters
will continue to do so through early next week. Another set of
northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast
waters Tue night through Thu.
$$
Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Feb 22 02:10:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 212146
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area
has shifted eastward. Strong N winds will continue through this
afternoon and diminish overnight. A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico on Mon with high pressure building behind it.
Strong N gap winds will return early Mon morning, reaching gale-
force by late Mon morning. Model guidance indicates that this
could be a strong gale wind event that could last until early
Wednesday. Seas are expected to build 8-14 ft with swell from
this event spreading away from the region, reaching by 101W on
Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued
at the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!t7DTPNFLZiA6gnFZys8ZgaEdmUry4bePxk4Jjs1PdhYKfCfeENe5STfEX_uh5aaqdcVc8o2K$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from the Colombia coast near 04N77W to
03N80W to 06N91W to 03N106W. The ITCZ continues from 03N106W to
03N125W to 03N140W. Scattered showers are noted from 02N to 09N
between 78W and 92W. Scattered showers are also noted along the
trough from 01N to 07N between 101W and 108W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale event.
The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh N to NW
winds north of Punta Eugenia. Winds continue to be light to
gentle off the southern Baja California coast. Winds will
increase fresh to strong across the Gulf of California by this
afternoon and continue through late Mon night. Seas are expected
to be 5-7 ft with the strongest winds. Winds could funnel
through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at
times. Models indicate strong winds across the Gulf of
California could occur once again Thu through Fri with seas
potentially reaching 8 ft. A large set of northwest swell is
propagating through the waters west of Baja California north of
Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to advance southward
reaching to near 24N by Mon morning, then subside by Mon
evening. Another set of northerly swell begins to propagate near
Guadalupe Island from late Tue night through Fri. A more
significant swell event is possible next weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate NE winds north of
the trough and light to gentle S to SW winds south of the
trough. Wave heights range 5-7 ft with 8-9 ft swell propagating
away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high
pressure building over the western Caribbean Sea will bring
pulsing fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Papagayo nightly
through this week. North winds will pulse moderate to locally
fresh across the Gulf of Panama nightly during the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and
lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, mainly
north of 09N and west of 120W, with the stronger winds north of
15N with wave heights ranging 8-11 ft. These conditions are
forecast to continue into Mon morning with winds diminishing by
the afternoon. Seas will continue to range 8-10 ft through the
week in this region. Northwest swell that propagated into the
northern and northeast waters will subside by Mon. Another set of
northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast
waters Tue night through Fri.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 23 02:38:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 222051
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind
a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today. This will
help tighten the pressure gradient across the area, increasing
winds to gale- force by this evening. Gale force winds are
expected to continue through late Tue night. Seas will peak near
14 ft early Tue. Swell generated from the gale force winds will
spread well downwind from the region, with seas 8 ft or greater
reaching as far west as 110W by Wed night. Please read the latest
NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center
at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!v_-xukWRSjA5avpm9lQe0GEpXTrLVtAalW-Lk2ssixlPJF90e2Ppb25RDyrh-2SRwXh1O75Z$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N97W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N97W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 102W and 107W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale event.
Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds
prevail off the coast of Baja California, with seas in the 6-8 ft
range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are noted
across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
4-6 ft are seen elsewhere.
Gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail
through Tue night. Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue
over the Gulf of California through tonight. Strong northwest
winds are also expected over this region on Thu. A set of
northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja
California Norte midweek.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds downwind of the
Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh winds downwind of the Gulf
of Panama, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the
8-10 ft range downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo, 6-8 ft downwind
of the Gulf of Panama, and 5-6 ft elsewhere.
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo each
night through the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
pulse across the Gulf of Panama each night through Thu night.
Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1039 mb is centered near 36N138W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong
trades north of the ITCZ and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ. NW swell, with seas in
the 8-11 ft range, prevail west of a line from Punta Eugenia to
neat 07N140W. Seas will slowly subside the next couple of days.
Another set of northerly swell will begin to move through the far
northern waters Tue night through Fri.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Feb 24 02:14:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 232231
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure centered over
eastern Mexico has weakened today, and allowed the tight
pressure gradient across the region to slacken. Midday ASCAT
data showed peak winds to 30 kt across Tehuantepec. Wind are
likely to remain at 25-30 kt through the late evening hours
before diminishing in speed and areal coverage through Wed night.
The gale warning has therefore been discontinued. Swell
generated from the recent gale force winds have spread well
downwind from the region, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as
far west as 105W this afternoon.
Gulf of California developing Gale: Strong high pressure expected
across the Great Basin region Wed and Wed night is forecast to
build southward into NW Mexico and the Gulf of California.
Northerly winds are expected to blast quickly into northern
portions of the Gulf of California early Thu morning and
gradually spread southward into central portions of the Gulf.
Northerly winds near gale force with frequent gusts to 40 kt and
higher will prevail across the northern Gulf Thu morning. Seas
will quickly build 6-8 ft as this wind surge spreads southward
across the Gulf.
For more specific information on these expected conditions please
read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!urKxnjmcrm6ojtAaljOuw3JEjDyKypxXR6uJr9-A2xdsYnCtqmOI9-k7-p7EnTv2-3Gp7wXo$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low near 09N75W to
04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 05N113W to 03.5N129W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 11N between 97W and 116W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04.5N between 131W to
140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see above for more information on the ending Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale event.
Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate northerly
winds prevail off the coast of Baja California, with seas in the
5-7 ft range. Fresh NNW winds, and seas of 3-6 ft are noted
inside the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are seen
elsewhere.
Gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail
through Tue night. Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue
over the Gulf of California through tonight. Strong northwest
winds are also expected over this region on Thu. New northerly
swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte
midweek.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Midday ASCAT data showed fresh winds across and downwind of the
Gulf of Papagayo, where seas are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds
are presumed to be occurring downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and
light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft downwind of the
Gulf of Panama, and 5-6 ft elsewhere.
Persistent fresh offshore winds will pulse to strong across the
Gulf of Papagayo region each night throughout the week. Fresh
northerly winds will pulse to strong across and downwind of the
Gulf of Panama to 05N each night through Thu night. Light to
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1037 mb is centered near 37N142W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong
trades north of the ITCZ to 30N and west of 130W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 22N. NW
swell, with seas in the 8-11 ft range, prevail west of 120W to
neat 05N140W. Seas will slowly subside the next couple of days.
New northerly swell will begin to move through the far northern
waters tonight through Fri.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Jan 25 02:42:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 242155
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale
Warning: A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte
early Mon. Gale force winds are forecast north of 29N in the Gulf
of California Mon and Mon evening. Gale force winds are also
forecast north of 31N west of Baja California Norte Mon afternoon
and Mon night. Strong wind speeds are expected elsewhere north
of Punta Eugenia through Tue. Seas will reach 8-12 ft in the
northern Gulf of California Mon night. Please see the latest High
Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!smyw-6t60EtiIe9MC6pqL1G8eyyjGu66hzFFzXpnM_izA94IwWlCs_1omIgD8CPavA6_7Xwx$
for
more details.
Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front
will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long-
period NW swell expected west of Baja California Mon through Tue
night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of
Baja California Norte Mon afternoon through Mon night. There is a
significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta
Eugenia Mon through Tue evening. Please see the latest High Seas
Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!smyw-6t60EtiIe9MC6pqL1G8eyyjGu66hzFFzXpnM_izA94IwWlCs_1omIgD8CPavA6_7Xwx$
for more
details and refer to local statements issued by your national
meteorological service.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 05N83W to 04N103W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N103W to 08N119W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 110W and
138W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the northern Gulf of California and west of
Baja California Norte, as well as details on an upcoming very
large NW swell event.
The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NW winds to the west of Baja
California. Expect these winds to persist, then increase quickly
early Mon morning. Fresh SW winds are found over portions of the
northern Gulf of California. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere N
of Cabo Corrientes. Farther to the southeast, gentle winds
prevail offshore the remainder of Mexico.
Seas are 8-12 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 6-9 ft off
Baja California Sur. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore the remainder of
Mexico.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed.
Gale force northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Wed night through the end of the week. Another large
NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu and Thu
night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong winds
offshore the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds will persist through
the next several days. Winds in the Papagayo region will increase
to strong Thursday night and persist through Friday. Seas will
occasionally build to 6 ft with the pulsing winds, except 7-11
ft Thu night and Fri.
The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds across the Gulf of
Panama. Moderate to fresh winds and 4-6 ft seas are forecast
to persist through Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere.
Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region may spread across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge
southeastward all the way to near Cabo Corrientes. The gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W,
confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass. Seas in this area are in the
8-10 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The
strong pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through
Tue, allowing for a continuation of fresh to strong trade winds
through Tue.
A NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across the area,
with seas currently 9-12 ft north of 20N. This will be followed
by larger, long-period NW swell arriving on Mon, associated with
a strong cold front moving into Baja California Norte. The swell
will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of
15N between 110W and 135W. Highest seas are expected Mon through
Tue west of Baja California.
Looking ahead, another strong cold front will drop south of 30N
on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it
through Thu night, mainly north of 25N. Another set of large
northerly swell will accompany this system, propagating
southward across the entire area through the end of the week.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jan 26 02:19:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 252119
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale
Warning: A strong cold front will continue moving across the Baja
California Norte through the next few days. Gale force winds are
forecast north of 29N in the Gulf of California through the
evening hours. Seas will reach 8-10 ft in the northern Gulf of
California tonight. Gale force winds are also forecast north of
31N west of Baja California Norte through tonight. Please see
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rEG8xoRIGE6rlrvCAAPFPC_SgHhMD1M0a5WA7z_P6837esUn4Ic1HpWsNqzTpOvZ1GonafSP$
for more details.
Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front
is moving across Baja California Norte today, with large long-
period NW swell expected west of Baja California through Tue
night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of
Baja California Norte through tonight. There is a significant
risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through
Tue evening. Please refer to your local statements issued by
your national meteorological service for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N106W. ITCZ extends
from 05N106W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 300 nm N of the boundaries between 95W and 132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the Baja California area, as well as
details on the large NW swell event.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of Baja California as the
front continues moving across the area. Moderate winds prevail
elsewhere N of Cabo Corrientes. Farther to the southeast, gentle
winds prevail offshore the remainder of Mexico. Seas are 8-12 ft
in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte and 5-7 ft off Baja
California Sur. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore the remainder of Mexico.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed.
Gale force northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Wed night through the end of the week. Another large
NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu through
the end of the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region
through the week, with the strongest winds expected Thu night
through Fri night. Seas will occasionally build to 6 ft with the
pulsing winds, except 8-11 ft Thu night through Fri night.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama.
The winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to
fresh in the next few hours, with fresh to strong possible again
Thu night through Fri night. Seas of 4-6 ft are forecast to
persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere.
Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region may spread across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador Thu through early Sat.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge
southeastward all the way to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ and west
of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of
NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong pressure gradient is
forecast to remain in place through Tue, allowing for a
continuation of fresh to strong trade winds through Tue.
A NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across the area,
with seas currently 8-12 ft north of 20N. This will be followed
by larger, long-period NW swell associated with a strong cold
front moving into Baja California Norte. The swell will spread
southward across much of the forecast area north of 15N between
110W and 135W. Highest seas are expected through Tue west of
Baja California.
Looking ahead, the next strong cold front will drop south of 30N
on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it
through Thu, mainly north of 25N. Another set of large northerly
swell will accompany this system, propagating southward across
the entire area through the end of the week.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Jan 27 02:07:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 262041
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to
move across the Gulf of Mexico Wed. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front across eastern Mexico. A tight pressure
gradient will develop between this area of building high
pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Northerly
winds will rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass with gale
force winds forecast beginning Wed evening in the Tehuantepec
region. Winds will approach strong gale force early Thu and then
again Thu night. This event will generate very large seas, which
will peak around 20 ft in the Tehuantepec region Thu night
through Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will
propagate well west- southwest away from the Tehuantepec region,
with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri
night. The gale force winds are forecast to persist through
early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind
event is possible Sun night into early next week. Please see the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!ogioaAzEMC_5zfhsZh31OKSyL8OtZ-CFtqfc8AIAHpMyTsCIRaCH2V5oPRlaHF9eVfmTHgE4$
for more details..
Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: Large, long-period,
NW swell is propagating across the waters west of Baja
California. Wave heights up to 16 ft are peaking now west of
Baja California Norte. There is a significant risk of hazardous
surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through this evening.
Please refer to your local statements issued by your national
meteorological service for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N80W to 05N123W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N123W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between the
coast of Colombia and 84W and from 02N to 07N between 91W and
116W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Tehuantepec region, as well as details on a
large NW swell event west of Baja California Norte.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern Gulf of
California, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds prevail
west of Baja California Norte, with seas in the 12 to 16 ft
range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N,
except fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes. South of 18N,
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell
offshore Baja California Sur, and 5-8 ft north of 18N to the
Revillagigedo Islands and 4-6 ft south of 18N.
The area of fresh to strong winds off Baja California Norte and
in the northern Gulf of California will diminish tonight. The
large NW swell off Baja California will subside through Thu.
Another set of northerly swell will enter the waters off Baja
California Norte Thu and spread southward through Sat. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are expected from the southern Gulf of
California to near Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region will
increase to fresh to strong Wed night through Sat night with
building seas by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through
Thu, and then to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas
generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region
will spread across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador Thu night through early Sat.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge extends SE from high pressure of 1034 mb
centered northwest of the area near 43N156W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ, and within the monsoon trough, is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of
112W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW
swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong pressure gradient is
forecast to remain in place through this evening.
Large NW-N swell continues across the area, with seas greater
than 8 ft over the waters N of 05N and west of 110W. Seas will
gradually subside over the next few days. A cold front will drop
south of 30N on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and
behind the front through early Thu. This front will usher in
another set of large northerly swell, peaking near 18 ft Wed
night. The swell will propagate southeastward while slowly
subsiding through the weekend. Another set of NW swell will move
into the NW waters Sat night.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Jan 27 23:09:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 271500
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front across eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient
will develop between this area of building high pressure and the
eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Northerly winds will
rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass with gale force winds
forecast beginning this evening in the Tehuantepec region. Winds
will approach strong gale force early Thu and then again Thu
night. This event will generate very large seas, which will peak
around 20 ft in the Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri.
Seas generated from this gap wind event will propagate well west-
southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, with seas greater
than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by Fri night. The gale
force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning.
Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event is possible Sun
night into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas
Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!osau3asahWsIYYuoFu8ricSSDIW03sPkGgmdGKghjfHVjwu28WUaJZEF9ljZNUPAdKVM7w4Z$
for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N88W to 05N107W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N107W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 87W and 94W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the southern Gulf of
California will diminish later today. Winds and seas across the
area will continue to diminish through Thu night. A weakening
cold front will approach Baja California Norte Thu night. This
front will usher in a large NW swell that will spread southward
W of the Baja California peninsula through Sat morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Offshore winds across the Papagayo region will become fresh to
strong tonight through Sat night. Fresh northerly winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu, becoming fresh to strong
Thu night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by strong winds in the
Tehuantepec region will spread into the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through early Sat.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails over the northern waters, ahead of a cold
front approaching the forecast area. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ to
near 22N and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 9 to 11
ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. The
pressure gradient will weaken tonight and Thu as the cold front
moves south of 30N into the forecast area.
NW-N swell will across the region will diminish today. A cold
front will drop south of 30N later today, with strong W to SW
winds ahead of the front, and fresh to strong W to NW winds
expected as the front passes. This front will usher in large N to
NW swell, peaking near 18 ft along 30N tonight. The swell will
propagate south-southeastward and gradually subside through the
weekend.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jan 28 22:16:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 281828
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force northerly
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will reach strong
gale-force tonight. This event will generate very large seas,
which will peak around 20 ft tonight and Fri. Seas generated from
this gap wind event will propagate well away from the source
region, with seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W
by Fri night. Gale-force winds are forecast to persist through
early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another gale- force gap wind
event is possible Sun night into early next week. Please see the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oZdRq-mgOV5mu3WeQ8RLIDVwuowAJjmbx3rRyT4o7vVn0f-MWIdTL5I7WJY56YphCOlZV2pR$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N77W to 08N85W to 05N92W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N92W TO 06N117W TO 05N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 11N
between 109W and 113W, and within 60 NM of the ITCZ W of 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Moderate north to northwest winds prevail across the Gulf of
California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. NW swell is
producing 7 to 9 ft seas west of the Baja California peninsula
southward to offshore Cabo Corrientes, with seas in the 4-7 ft
range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
A weakening cold front approaching Baja California Norte tonight
will usher in another set of large NW swell that will spread
southward west of the Baja California peninsula through Sat
morning. This swell will subside this weekend. Another set of NW
swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon night.
Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of
California on Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds are possible in the
central and southern Gulf of California Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with
moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in Gulf
of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
The offshore winds across the Papagayo region will become fresh
to strong through Sat night. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will
become fresh to strong tonight through Fri night. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by
strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will spread into the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through
early Sat.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extends across the northern part of the discussion
area from 30N123W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong winds prevail
within 90 nm east of the front, with seas reaching 18 ft north of
the front. The large NW swell associated with the front will
spread south- southeastward across the forecast region through
Fri night. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure
analyzed near 25N120W and lower pressures in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade winds north of the
ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 9
ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Trade
winds will increase Friday as high pressure builds north of the
area behind the cold front. Another set of NW swell will
propagate into the NW waters on Sunday.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 30 03:12:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 291913
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force northerly
gap winds to 35 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec that are
expected to continue into tonight. This will generate very large
seas, which will peak around 16 ft. Seas generated from this gap
wind event will propagate well away from the source region, with
seas greater than 8 ft spreading as far west as 110W by tonight.
Looking ahead, more gales are likely Sun night through early
next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rMZa0RVemGGElWA0k5JtnfJPZrHTdgXRJwo01-CDz59duhGFk8nnQ1JOkmhzQTDmXzkpyk-B$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 06N90W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N90W to 07N115W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 118W
and 138W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are generally gentle
across the forecast waters, ahead of a weakening cold front
moving into Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 5-9 ft range
across much of the open waters. The exception is over the waters
of Baja California Norte, where NW swell has propagated into the
area and seas have built to 8-12 ft.
The large NW swell off Baja California Norte will spread
southward across the waters west of the Baja California
peninsula into Sat, then subside. New NW swell will reach the
waters off Baja California Norte by Mon night. Moderate to fresh
SW winds are expected within 150 nm E of the approaching cold
front tonight this afternoon as the front enters the northern
waters. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern
Gulf of California today, and then brief fresh to strong NW
winds will occur behind the front this evening. Locally strong
winds are also possible this evening through Sat night offshore
Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong SW winds are possible in the
central and southern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with
fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-11 ft range
in Gulf of Papagayo, 6-9 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and
3-6 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Papagayo
region through Sun, then will pulse through the middle of next
week. Large seas generated from the Papagayo winds will merge
with NW swell moving away from Tehuantepec, and also mix with NW
swell moving through the region to create confused seas of 7-10
ft across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala
tonight into Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Panama through early Sun, with seas remaining up
to around 9 ft. Generally moderate winds are expected elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening cold front extends across the northern part of the
discussion area from Baja California del Norte to 21N129W, with
seas reaching as high as 13 ft north of the front along 30N. The
large NW swell associated with the front will spread south-
southeastward across the forecast region through the weekend. The
pressure gradient between weak high pressure analyzed near
22N121W and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh NE trade winds north of the ITCZ to 19N, west
of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Trade
winds will increase tonight as high pressure builds north of the
area behind the cold front. New NW swell will propagate into the
NW waters Sat night.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jan 30 18:41:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 301459
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building into the
western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front combined with
lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough to the south
will increase the pressure gradient over the area and gales will
develop Sun night in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds may
peak near 45 kt Mon night, with gales continuing into Tue night.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rbk_2a-RDWRAg5o4JYC1aychj5wBCXnwyl97mgiC5ONe5vtHdT6HtMMWUt4kmRe-9Nmvhnez$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 04N89W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N89W to 03N107W to 09N123W to beyond 02N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N
to 17N between 118W and 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Strong offshore winds prevail in the Tehuantepec region, and gentle
to moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja
California, where seas are 6-10 ft in NW swell. The cold front
that produced this winds off Baja California has devolved into a
surface trough along the NW coast of mainland Mexico. Weak high
pressure will build across the region today and freshen the
local wind flow across the Baja waters, while fresh to locally
strong northerly winds develop inside the Gulf of California by
tonight and continue through Mon. Seas are expected to build to
7-8 ft across central portions of the Gulf Sun night. Locally
strong winds are expected this afternoon and evening along the
coast of Cabo Corrientes.
Large NW swell off Baja California Norte has peaked in size and will
continue to propagate southward across the waters west of the
southern Mexico into, while slowly subsiding offshore of Baja
California. New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja
California Norte by Mon night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and
Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
are in the 7-10 ft range in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
6-9 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Papagayo
region into Sun night, then will pulse into late next week.
Large seas generated from the Papagayo winds will merge with NW
swell moving away from Tehuantepec, and also mix with W swell
moving through the region to create confused seas of 7-10 ft
across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Panama through early Sun, with seas remaining up to around 8 ft.
Generally moderate winds are expected elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail within an area of high pressure
N of 25N, with gradually decaying seas of up to 10 ft highest
near 30N125W. Large NW swell will continue to move S-SE across
the waters this weekend. The pressure gradient between the high
to the north and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh to locally strong NE trade winds north of the
ITCZ to 23N, west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 11
ft range in mixed NW swell and NE tradewind swell. Trade winds
will increase today through Sun to the W of 120W as high pressure
builds north of the area. New NW swell will propagate into the
NW waters tonight.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 31 05:36:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 302017
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building into the
western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front combined with
lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough to the south
will increase the pressure gradient over the area and gales will
develop Sun evening in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds
may peak near 45 kt Mon night, with gales continuing through Tue
night. Seas may peak near 20 ft Mon night into Tue. Please see
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oGmwbvu9u-kItYmaIZlczvXDMrulUlFscr7Fed6GFl65G-H7J84JAPaaDn8Vg1GpmIQyBnxC$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W to 04N89W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N89W to 03N108W to 09N123W, where it is broken up
by a surface trough. The ITCZ then reforms at 07N129W and
continues beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 19N between 116W and 137W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Strong offshore winds prevail in the Tehuantepec region will
diminish to fresh this evening. Moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail on both sides of Baja California Sur. These winds will
increase tonight with some strong winds developing in the central
and southern Gulf of California. The strong NW winds will prevail
into Mon as a surface trough along the coast of mainland Mexico
deepens. West of Baja California seas of 6 to 10 ft prevail in
decaying swell, with seas of 7 to 9 ft also occurring downwind of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are expected to build to 7-8 ft
across central portions of the Gulf Sun night. Locally strong
winds are expected this afternoon and evening along the coast of
Cabo Corrientes.
New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon
evening and prevail into Tue evening.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and
Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
are in the 7-10 ft range in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
6-9 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Papagayo
region through Sun night, then will pulse through late next
week. As high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean, near gale
conditions are possible in the Papagayo region Tue night into
Wed. For the Gulf of Panama, wind will gradually subside Sun.
Generally moderate winds are expected elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail within an area of high pressure
N of 24N, with decaying seas of up to 9 ft highest near 30N125W.
Large NW swell will continue to move S-SE across the waters this
weekend. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh
to locally strong NE trade winds north of the ITCZ to 23N, west
of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range in mixed
NW swell and NE tradewind swell. Trade winds will increase today
through Sun to the W of 120W as high pressure builds north of the
area. New NW swell will propagate into the NW waters tonight.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 31 18:10:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 310954
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build into
the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico Sun behind a cold
front and will induce another significant northerly gap wind
event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gale-force winds
will quickly develop Sun evening in and downstream the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Winds will increase during Mon and may peak near 45
kt Mon night, with gales continuing through Tue night. Associated
seas may peak near 20 ft Mon night into Tue. Please see the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rpQ9P_2VzBcYnVAucS-b3jGjHw6oU310IJmIbK1hF3vIYArFvsSvfDPfNh1Ecorp39Y5pX0l$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The NE Pacific monsoonal circulation is no longer evident off of
South and Central America. A weak surface trough is analyzed
from 09.5N74W to 02N81W to 04N90W. The ITCZ extends from 04N90W
to 03N105W to 06N124W, where it is broken up by a surface
trough. The ITCZ then continues from 05N130W to beyond 02.5N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 11N between 114W and 122W and from 07N to 17N between 122W and
131W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Strong gap winds have
ended across the Gulf in recent hours, but will return quickly
late Sun as a Gulf of Mexico cold front reaches the region.
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail on both sides
of central and southern portions of Baja California tonight.
These winds will persist tonight across the Baja offshore waters,
and increase modestly inside the Gulf of California, with areas
of strong winds developing across the central and southern
portions. The strong NW winds will prevail into Mon as a surface
trough along the coast of mainland Mexico deepens. Seas are
expected to build to 6-8 ft across central portions of the Gulf
of California Sun night. West of Baja California seas of 6 to 9
ft prevail tonight in decaying swell, with seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevailing across the remaining offshore waters east of
Manzanillo, to the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
New NW swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte Mon
evening and prevail into Tue evening. Weak high pressure
persisting W of the Baja offshore waters will maintain moderate
N to NE winds across the waters during this time.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong offshore winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and
Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
are in the 7-10 ft range in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
6-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong offshore winds will continue across the Papagayo
region through Sun night, then will pulse through late next
week. As high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean, near gale
conditions are possible in the Papagayo region Tue night into
Wed. Winds will diminish slightly across the Gulf of Panama late
Sun then remain offshore through the middle of the upcoming week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail surrounding an
area of high pressure N of 22N, with decaying swell of 7 to 8
ft currently prevailing. Large NW swell moving through the
regional waters the past few days will continue to move S-SE
across the waters south of 20N Sun. The pressure gradient between
the high to the north and lower pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to e trade winds north of the ITCZ to
18N, west of 115W, and strong NE winds to the west of a surface
trough along about 124W south of 13N. Seas in this area are in
the 8 to 11 ft range in mixed NW swell and NE tradewind swell.
Trade winds will remain strong through Sun to the W of 125W as
high pressure builds north of the area. New NW swell has begun to
propagate into the far NW waters tonight and will spread SE
through Mon.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 2 01:07:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 012140
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico is forcing gale-force N winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this afternoon. A scatterometer pass this afternoon over
W Gulf of Tehuantepec observed 35 kt, though stronger winds
likely were occurring farther east. A peak of strong gale is
likely this evening, though it is possible that the event could
reach Storm force. Gale conditions will persist until Wed
morning and these gap winds should cease by Thu morning.
Associated seas will likely peak around 20 ft tonight into Tue
afternoon and drop below 12 ft Wed afternoon.
Gulf of Papagayo region Gale Warning: High pressure extending
across NW Caribbean will maintain offshore NE winds across the
Papagayo region through Thu night. These gap winds will pulse
strong to near gale, except for Tue night when gales are
expected. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft Wed.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uRhjWuY83nJmAaeFgsPJ30yMFKfsK79NEPEMYgNruEkTkEPOkRJJX4XbBpK9jjhxIYkwlxi-$
for more details on
these Gale Warnings.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 03N93W to 10N130W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between
120W and 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Fresh to strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of
California will diminish by this evening, but should resume again
over the entire Gulf of California on Fri and Sat. Peak seas
over the central and S Gulf of California are 5-7 ft and the same
is anticipated on Fri and Sat. Weak high pressure will reside
west of the Baja California offshore waters for the next several
days, contributing toward generally moderate to fresh N winds.
New NW swell will spread into waters offshore of Baja California
tonight and persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-10 ft
are expected tonight through Tue night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo region.
The same high pressure over the W Caribbean causing the gale for
the Gulf of Papagayo region will also promote fresh to strong N
winds over the Gulf of Panama Tue night through Thu night.
Elsewhere winds are quiescent across the Central American and
equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador
waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is occurring
through Wed night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high centered near
27N123W southeastward to 18N108W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is
producing NE to E trades of gentle to fresh breezes. However, an
upper-level trough near 15N130W is contributing to convection in
the ITCZ as well as enhancing the trades to strong or near gale
conditions. Elsewhere, a weak cold front extends from 30N131W to
25N140W. While no significant winds are occurring in association
with the front, a large NW swell of at least 12 ft is occurring
along our 30N border with at least 8 ft extending north of 20N,
west of 125W. Additionally, mixed NW and E swell of 8-10 ft
persists between 05-12N west of 100W.
The cold front will move slowly eastward during the next couple
days before dissipating west of Baja California peninsula on Thu
or Fri. The upper-level trough's enhancement of the trades near
15N130W will diminish by Tue night. Large NE swell from the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event will propagate west of 100W south
of 12N through early Thu. The NW swell event will cross most of
the waters while gradually diminishing through Fri.
$$
Landsea
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Feb 3 01:02:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 022049
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure across the Gulf
of Mexico will support gale conditions through Wed morning.
Winds will further diminish, to 20 kt or less, by Thu morning.
Associated seas are peaking near 18 ft and will subside below 12
ft Wed afternoon.
Gulf of Papagayo region Gale Warning: High pressure across the
NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong offshore gap winds
across the Papagayo region through Thu night. These gap winds
will pulse to gale force tonight. Seas are expected to peak near
12 ft Wed.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!smaYA8jgs7VXlLaF-yK88kHLFfww5FsEDEdqPv5wj7BelCr4AiufOxhgQlVTZZH8i10jYIfD$
for more details on
these Gale Warnings.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 01N101W to 04.5N120W. It resumes
from 03N126W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 20N between 117W and
130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
NW winds across the central and S Gulf of California are
expected to increase to strong over the entire Gulf of
California on Fri and Sat. Weak high pressure will remain west
of the Baja California offshore waters for the next several days,
contributing to generally moderate to fresh N winds. NW swell
over the far NW waters offshore of Baja California Norte will
persist for the next few days. Peak seas of 8-9 ft are expected
through tonight.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Papagayo region.
High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to
strong offshore NE winds across the Papagayo region through Thu
night. These gap winds will pulse to gale force tonight. The same
high pressure will promote fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf
of Panama Tue night through Thu night. Elsewhere winds are light
across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW
swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue through Wed night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high centered near
29N122W southeastward to near Cabo Corrientes. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of
the ITCZ to 20N. A surface trough from 12N125W to 06N125W is
enhancing the trades to strong or near gale conditions between
120W and 130W. NW swell is bringing seas of 8 ft or greater
across the waters north of 15N, west of 125W. Additionally, mixed
NW and E swell of 8-10 ft persists between 04-12N west of 100W.
Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
propagate west of 100W south of 12N through early Thu. The NW
swell event will cross most of the waters while gradually
diminishing through Fri.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 4 02:41:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 031953
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 03N95W to 02N104W to 06N120W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 04N to 10N between 115W and 122W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 11N west of 133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong to near gale winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Winds will continue to diminish over this area, falling to 20 kt
or less by Thu morning. Seas are currently in the 8-10 ft range,
and will subside below 8 ft by Thu morning.
Weak high pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja
California. Moderate northerly winds prevail across Baja
California Norte, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate N
winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as
inside the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to freshen
across the offshore waters tonight through Thu night as high
pressure builds into the region from the NW. Winds will increase
to strong across the entire Gulf of California early Fri through
early Sat, when seas will build to 4-7 ft. NW swell over the far
NW waters offshore of Baja California Norte will persist for the
next few days.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure across the NW Caribbean has
weakened enough to diminish winds below gale force. Winds are
currently in the fresh to near gale force range. Winds will
further diminish tonight, with fresh to strong offshore gap
winds across the Papagayo region expected through Thu night.
Gulf of Panama: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will
support fresh to strong N winds through Thu evening.
Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and
equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador
waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
gradually subside this afternoon through tonight.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure ridge extends west of Baja California Norte, as
well as extending west of low pressure centered near 30N130W. The
pressure gradient between these ridges and and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E
trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. A trough is
supporting stronger trades from 05N to 15N between 120W and 125W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted over the discussion waters
within 390 nm NW quadrant of the low. Mixed NW and E swell of
8-10 ft persists between 04-12N west of 95W. The low will shift
westward the next several days. High pressure will build SSE into
the area waters east of 130W late Thu through Fri night. The
resultant pressure gradient to the south will freshen the
tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. Large NE swell from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to propagate
west of 110W south of 12N through early Thu.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 4 23:51:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 041546
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1018 mb surface low is centered near 29N133W. Strong to gale
force winds are occurring within 360 nm across the north
semicircle of this low, with recent ASCAT data showing the gales
dipping just south of 30N and into the discussion area to 29.5N,
both northeast and northwest of the surface low. Seas across this
area are are 10-14 ft in NW swell. The low center will shift
westward and exit the area within 48 hours, with gale force winds
expected to lift north of 30N and out of the area later this
morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vbEaTRD7cOYOCBYuNX6ba6RshzSQMGQmuwT8Of9KM-7-IUf3YuI4akV4N300Gs48wR6zP-19$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 06N87W to 04N93W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N93W to beyond 01.5N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S OF 07N between 90W and 114W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja
California. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the waters
of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 5-7
ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the
offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds
are expected to freshen from north to south across the offshore
waters through Fri as high pressure builds into the region from
the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the entire Gulf of
California early Fri through early Sat, when seas will build to
4-7 ft. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California
Norte will maintain seas 5 to 7 ft for the next few days.
Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the
offshore waters of Mexico south of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh offshore
gap winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N.
Seas across the Tehuantepec area are in the 5-7 ft range.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure across the NW Caribbean has
weakened sufficiently across Central America to produce
diminishing winds across Papagayo, where gap winds are currently
20-25 kt and extend offshore to 88W as depicted by recent ASCAT
data. Winds will further diminish through the next 24 hours.
Gulf of Panama: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will
support fresh to strong N winds through Thu evening, with seas
persisting in the 5-8 ft range north of 02N.
Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and
equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador
waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
gradually subside tonight.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak high pressure ridge extends west of Baja California
Norte, and to the north of 1018 mb low pressure centered near
29N133W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to
fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 118W.
The surface low will shift westward during the next few days and
exit the area. This will allow high pressure to build SSE into
the area waters east of 130W through Fri night. The resultant
pressure gradient to the south will freshen the tradewinds south
of 20N and west of 120W. NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gap wind event will continue to propagate west of 110W south of
12N through today.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 6 17:21:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 060909
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N85W to 04N99W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N110W to 04N140W. No significant convection is noted at
this time.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails across the forecast waters west of Baja
California. Scatterometer data continues to depict gentle to
moderate northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter passes
indicate seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Fresh to strong gap
winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun through early
Mon. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Scatterometer data continues to depict light
to gentle winds in this area. Seas are generally 3-5 ft. High
pressure in the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to occasionally
strong offshore winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama
Sun night through early Tue. Light to gentle winds are expected
elsewhere through Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
An area of 7 to 9 ft seas across the northern waters west of
137W is expected to persist for another day or two, as a low
pressure system, expected to develop in the Central Pacific
between 140W and 150W, intensifies as it moves north of 30N.
High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N west of
Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken this weekend,
which will relax the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ. An
active weather pattern west of 140W in the Central Pacific will
maintain elevated seas, particularly west of 130W, the next
couple of days, but marine conditions are expected to moderate
west of 125W by Sun. Benign marine conditions are expected to
persist across rest of the discussion area through the forecast
period.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 7 00:48:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 062100
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 04N96W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N96W to beyond 05N140W. No significant convection is
noted at this time.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails across the forecast waters west of Baja
California. Scatterometer data continues to depict gentle to
moderate northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter passes
indicate seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Fresh to strong gap
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun through early
Mon. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through
mid-week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Scatterometer data continues to depict light
to gentle winds in this area. Seas are generally 3-5 ft. High
pressure in the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh to occasionally
strong offshore winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama
Sun night through early Tue. Light to gentle winds are expected
elsewhere through Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
An area of 7 to 9 ft seas across the northern waters west of
137W is expected to persist for the next few days as a low
pressure system to develop in the Central Pacific between 140W
and 150W, intensifies as it moves north of 30N.
High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N west of
Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken this weekend,
which will relax the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ. An
active weather pattern west of 140W in the Central Pacific will
maintain elevated seas, particularly west of 130W, for the next
couple of days. Benign marine conditions are expected to persist
across rest of the discussion area through the forecast period.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 7 16:36:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 070927
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 05N82W to 04N95W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 05N110W to 04N120W to 04N130W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 135W-136W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails across the forecast waters west of Baja
California. Overnight ASCAT data showed gentle to moderate
northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter data passes
indicate seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Fresh to strong gap
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sun
through early Mon as high pressure builds southeastward across
the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front, while gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through late in the
upcoming week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Latest scatterometer data continues to
depict light to gentle winds in this area. Seas are generally 3-5
ft due to mixed southwest and northwest swell. High pressure over
the northwest Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to occasionally
strong offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight
through early Tue, then mainly fresh winds through Thu night.
Fresh north winds through the Gulf of Panama will begin tonight
and continue through early on Wed, then diminish to moderate
speeds through Thu night. Light to gentle winds are expected
elsewhere during the period.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Northwest swell is resulting in wave heights of 6-8 ft over the
northern waters north of 28N between 121W-127W. This swell will
decay through this afternoon allowing for these wave heights to
lower to less than 8 ft.
High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N and west
of Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken through
tonight. This will cause for the pressure gradient north of the
ITCZ to weaken, however, a tight pressure gradient between the
ridging and a frontal system well to the west of the area will
sustain fresh east winds from about 04N to 15N and west of 129W
through late on Mon. Wave heights within this area of winds are
in the 8-10 ft range. These wave heights will slowly subside
through the early part of the week as they shift west of 140W.
Otherwise, rather benign marine conditions are expected to
continue across the rest of the discussion area through the
forecast period.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Feb 8 03:13:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 072121
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N80W to 04N94W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 05N110W to 04N130W to 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N E of 79W to the
coast of Colombia. Similar convection is near 02N83W, and within
60 nm N of the ITCZ between 131W and 136W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas generally
in the 4-6 ft range. These marine conditions will persist over
the next several days. Fresh to strong gap winds are expected in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Mon morning as high
pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of
a cold front. Seas will remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds are expected through late in the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft
are noted in this area. Strong trade winds across the central and
SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong offshore winds across
the Gulf of Papagayo tonight through early Tue, and then again
Tue night and Wed. Fresh north winds through the Gulf of Panama
will begin tonight and continue through early on Wed. Light to
gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the period.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N and west
of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ
to about 15N and W of 125W based on latest scatterometer data.
Wave heights within this area of winds are in the 8-10 ft range
in NW swell. These wave heights will slowly subside over the next
couple of days. Otherwise, rather benign marine conditions are
expected to continue across the rest of the discussion area
through the forecast period. By Wed morning, expected increasing
winds and building seas near 30N140W ahead of a cold front
approaching the far NW corner of the forecast region. The front
will reach from 30N137W to 27N140W by Wed night, and from 30N135W
to 26N140W on Thu.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 9 00:43:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 082131
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 04N102W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N E
of 85W to coast of Colombia.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California and is producing gentle northerly winds as depicted in
recent ASCAT data. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range in N to
NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 7 ft or less are
expected across the offshore waters through early Wed before high
pressure begin to strengthen across the region and winds freshen
Wed and Thu. Fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
have diminished today and become light and variable as high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has shifted eastward. Variable
winds at 15 kt or less and seas of 6 ft or less are expected
across Tehuantepec through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds are expected through the next few days, with no significant
swell events anticipated.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Light to gentle winds and wave heights of
3-5 ft due to south to southwest swell prevail across this area.
Strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will
support fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
increasing to strong at night and into to morning hours through
Thu. Fresh north winds over the Gulf of Panama will change little
well throughout the week. Light to gentle winds are expected
elsewhere during the period, with no significant swell events
expected.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N135W and extends a
ridge southeastward to near 18N112W. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds are generally noted north of the ITCZ to about 18N
and west of 120W. Wave heights within this area of winds are in
the 6-9 ft range due to northwest swell. These wave heights will
subside through Tue as the area of seas 8 ft and greater
migrates to west of 140W. Otherwise, rather benign marine
conditions are expected to continue across the rest of the
discussion area through the forecast period. By Wed morning,
winds will become fresh from the south over the far northwest
waters ahead of a cold front that is expected to approach those
waters. The front is expected to weaken as it moves slowly into
the far northwest waters Wed through Thu. New northwest swell
generated behind the front will move into the area waters Wed
afternoon and build across the NW waters through Thu.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Feb 10 02:33:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 092129
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N74W to 03N83W to 01N93W to 03N100W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N100W to 06N124W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between
80W and 88W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California and is producing gentle mainly northerly winds per
recent scatterometer data. Wave heights are generally in the 4-6
ft range in NW-N swell. Gentle to moderate winds and wave
heights subsiding to 3-5 ft are expected across the offshore
waters through early Wed before high pressure begins to
strengthen across the region and winds freshen Wed through Sat
night N of 18N. Winds are forecast to then increase to fresh to
strong north of Punta Eugenia early Sun through Sun night as the
pressure gradient continues to tighten. Winds in the northern
Gulf of California will become SW-W at moderate to fresh Sat
night and Sun. A large NW swell event may impact the waters
offshore of Baja California Norte beginning Sat night.
Winds are light and variable in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as
the region remains in a weak pressure pattern. Wave heights are
generally 2-4 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells. Variable
winds at 15 kt or less are expected across the Tehuantepec region
through Sat night, becoming northerly at fresh to strong Sun and
Sun night as a cold front moves into the southwest Gulf of
Mexico. Seas of 2-4 ft are expected across the Tehuantepec
region through the end of the week, building in SW swell this
weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected
through the next several days.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will
support fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
increasing to strong speeds at night and into the morning hours
through Thu. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama
will continue during the overnight and early mornings through
Thu, then diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds through Sat
night. Seas will occasionally build to 5-7 ft in the Gulfs of
Papagayo and Panama during the strongest winds.
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region across
the offshore waters of northern South America. Gentle to moderate
winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft due to mainly long period S-SW
swell prevail across this area, except 4-6 ft south of the
Galapagos Islands. Little change is forecast through Thu night.
By the end of the week into the weekend, a modest SW swell set
will arrive gradually building seas to 4-7 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 29N133W. A ridge
extends from this high center southeastward to near 18N110W.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are generally noted north
of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W. Wave heights within
this area are in the 5-8 ft range due to NW swell. These wave
heights will subside slightly through this evening.
By Wed morning, winds will become fresh to strong from the S-SW
over the far northwest waters ahead of a cold front that is
expected to approach. The front is expected to weaken as it
moves slowly into the far northwest waters Wed through Thu. It
will weaken further to a trough as it moves across the northeast
waters from late Thu through Fri. New NW swell generated behind
the front will move into northwest waters Wed morning through Thu
producing wave heights of about 7-10 ft. The swell will decay
from late Thu through Fri allowing for wave heights to subside to
less than 8 ft over the northwest waters. A more expansive area and
larger set of NW swell may arrive to the northern waters for the
end of the upcoming weekend.
A trough is forecast to form over far western part of the area
south of 16N from late on Thu through Fri. The pinched off
gradient between it and the stronger high pressure over the
northern and central waters is expected to lead to an area of
fresh to strong northeast winds from about 08N to 18N and west
of about 125W along with resultant wave heights of 8-10 ft.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Feb 11 01:52:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 102056
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 05N79W to 06N85W to 03N99W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N101W to 06N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 86W and 92W, and from
04N to 08N between 112W and 119W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak high pressure centered west of the area supports gentle to
moderate NW-N winds across the entire offshore waters west of
Mexico, with gentle to moderate variable winds in the Gulf of
California. Seas are 3-5 ft per altimeter data, except 3 ft or
less in the Gulf of California.
High pressure will build across the Baja California offshore
waters during the next few days, supporting slightly stronger
wind flow, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds expected north of
18N by tonight, then becoming fresh to strong north of Punta
Eugenia Sat night through Sun evening. Large NW swell may impact
the waters west of Baja California Norte Fri night through Mon
night, with seas peaking around 14 ft. Fresh to strong northerly
flow may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong offshore gap winds are expected across the Gulf
of Papagayo region through early Thu, then moderate to fresh
thereafter. Fresh north winds across the Gulf of Panama will
pulse through early Thu, then moderate thereafter. Light to
gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days.
Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except up to 6 ft downwind of the Gulfs
of Papagayo and Panama. A modest SW swell will propagate across
the waters by the end of the week through the weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N127W will remain
nearly stationary through Thu night, with a ridge extending
southeast from the high center to near 15N110W. Scatterometer
data shows a small area of fresh to strong southerly winds in
the far NW waters north of 28N west of 137W, with seas in the
8-10 ft range in this region ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
The cold front will continue to approach 140W today while
weakening, then stall in the vicinity of 30N140W through Thu,
becoming a surface trough Thu night and Fri. NW swell associated
with the front will continue to propagate across the northwest
waters through Thu, building wave heights to around 7-10 ft,
then subside through Fri. Larger NW swell will reach the
northwestern waters this weekend.
Trade winds will increase somewhat north of the ITCZ tonight
through Fri as the high pressure near 30N127W strengthens
moderately, and as a trough begins to form over far western part
of the area south of 16N. The trades will increase to fresh to
strong from about 08N to 18N west of 125W, along with resultant
wave heights of 8-10 ft, Fri and Fri night.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Feb 12 18:20:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 120846
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N78W to 04N94W to 04N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 20N between 129W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 29N129W
and a surface trough over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh
northwesterly winds across the offshore waters west of Baja
California Norte, and gentle to moderate winds west of Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 5 to 6 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
The area of high pressure is forecast to strengthen slightly as
it remains relatively stationary during the next few days. This
high and developing low pressure over the western U.S. will
produce fresh to strong winds off Baja California Norte by Fri
night. These winds will continue through the weekend. The
combination of stronger winds and northwesterly swell will
result in a steady increase in seas, which are forecast to peak
around 14 ft over the waters off Baja California Norte Sun. The
NW swell will spread seas 8 ft or greater SE across the waters
off the entire Baja California peninsula by early next week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to occasionally fresh winds are expected across the
Gulf of Papagayo through early Sat. Light to gentle winds are
expected elsewhere during the next several days. Seas are mainly
3-4 ft, except 4-5 ft downwind of Papagayo and Panama. SW swell
will propagate into the waters between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador Saturday, gradually building seas through the weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 29N129W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades
north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W. Moderate to fresh
trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of
120W. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft range. High pressure
will prevail over the northern waters maintaining this area of
fresh to strong trades through early next week.
A set of NW swell event will propagate into the NW waters early
Sat. This swell will spread southeastward across the discussion
waters through early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will
cover much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue.
On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force,
winds over central Mexico late this weekend and early next week.
These winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and
high terrain in that region.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 13 05:07:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 130158
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 05N102W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N102W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 118W and 125W, and
from 06N to 18N between 135W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure building behind a weak cold front west of Baja
California and developing low pressure over W United States will
result in fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia
tonight. These winds will continue through the weekend before
diminishing Sun night. The accompanying seas will reach 12-15 ft
Sat night through Mon morning. A NW swell will reach the waters
west of Baja California Norte Sat night into Sun. This swell
will spread across the waters west of Baja California by early
next week. Combined NW and SW swell will increase seas to 8-10 ft
as far south as the offshore waters of Michoacan and Guerrero.
Developing low pressure over SW United States could lead to
strong to near gale NW winds over the Gulf of California on Wed.
Seas may reach 8-10 ft, which are quite large for the Gulf of
California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Weak high pressure over the W Caribbean will promote moderate to
fresh offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through
early Sat. Peak seas of 5-6 ft are expected in the region through
early Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during
the next several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue
across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for
the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 31N137W. The pressure
gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades north of
the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 130W. Seas in this area are in
the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of
the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. High pressure will weaken
slightly over N waters diminishing the trades slightly from Sun
through the middle of next week.
NW swell will propagate into the NW waters Sat. This swell will
spread southeastward across the discussion waters through early
next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the waters
N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue.
On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force,
winds over central Mexico Sat night through Sun afternoon. These
winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high
terrain in that region.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 13 18:17:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 130840
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 04N103W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N103W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 118W and 122W, and
from 07N to 15N between 135W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between high pressure near 32N136W and
low pressure over the southwestern United States will support
fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte through the
weekend before diminishing Sun night. Gale force winds north of
the area will generate large seas which will propagate into the
waters off Baja California Norte this weekend, building seas to
12-15 ft by early Sun. A set of NW swell will reach the waters
west of Baja California Norte Sun, which will merge with the
existing large seas. This swell will spread southeast across the
waters west of Baja California by early next week. The NW swell
will continue propagating SE, building seas to 8 ft or greater as
far south as the offshore waters of Michoacan and Guerrero by
the middle of next week. Winds will strengthen over the Gulf of
California the middle of next week, with seas building to near 8
ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of
Papagayo region through early today with peak seas of 5-6 ft.
Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next
several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near 32N136W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E
trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W. Seas in
this area are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are
elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W.
NW swell will propagate into the NW waters today. This swell
will spread southeastward across the discussion waters through
early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the
waters N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue.
On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force,
winds over central Mexico tonight through Sun afternoon. These
winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high
terrain in that region.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 14 02:12:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 132048
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N95W to 05N105W. The
intertropical convergence zone continues west from 05N105W to
06N115W to 04N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 06N to 09N west of 138W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A mid to upper level trough is moving across north central Mexico,
supporting lower surface pressure to the east, and tightening
the pressure gradient between the lower pressure and high
pressure west of the region. This being reinforced by a second
upper disturbance moving across the southwest U.S. Buoy
observations off San Diego indicate fresh to strong NW winds and
seas to 11 ft with NW swell. Near gale conditions are possible
tonight off the northern coast of Baja California, north of Punta
Baja. As an aside, models also indicate strong to possibly gale
force winds inland over north central Mexico tonight and Sun
related to this mid to upper trough. Fresh to strong NW winds are
evident elsewhere off Baja California, with accompanying NW
swell. Farther south, long- period SW swell persists across the
Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes.
The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will
persist through Sun. The winds off Baja California Norte will
diminish slightly Sun night, but return by mid week off Baja
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California as front
moves into the area. Large NW swell will accompany the winds,
with seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island Sun, and seas in excess
of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo
Corrientes by Tue, mixing with SW swell. Farther south, expect
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night and
Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the
early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to
strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1027 mb high pressure is centered near 32N136W. An upper level
low is centered west of the area, southeast of the Big Island
near 15N148W, which is supporting a surface trough in that
vicinity. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and the surface trough is supporting fresh to strong NE
to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W.
Recent altimeter satellite data shows seas in this area remain
in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north
of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W.
NW swell in excess of 8 ft is starting to propagate into the
waters north of 20N and west of 130W. This swell will spread
southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the
waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week, mixing with SW
swell east of 120W.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Feb 14 16:46:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 140841
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N86W to 05N112W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N112W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 89W and 92W, from
08N to 10N between 110W and 113W, and from 08N to 11N west of
135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 30N137W
and low pressure over the SW United States is supporting gale
force winds just north of the forecast area, with fresh to strong
winds off the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Sur. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range off
Baja California Norte and 6-7 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere off the coast of Mexico. Farther
south, long- period SW swell persists across the Mexican offshore
waters south of Cabo Corrientes.
The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will
diminish slightly tonight. Winds will increase once again by mid
week off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of
California as a cold front moves into the area. Large NW swell
will increase seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island today. The
swell will spread SE, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the
Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue,
where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Farther south, strong
gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night
and Tue. Looking ahead, a strong gale force gap wind event is
possible starting Thu night.
As an aside, models indicate strong to possibly gale force
winds inland over north central Mexico today related to a mid to
upper trough.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the
early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to
strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 30N137W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong
NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 138W.
Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh
trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 24N and west of
120W.
NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters north of 15N and west of 130W. This swell will continue
to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering
much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week,
mixing with SW swell east of 120W.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Feb 15 04:36:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 142156
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 02N98W to 07N110W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N110W to 04N140W. No significant showers
or thunderstorms are noted.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between 1029 mb high pressure centered
near 31N137W and low pressure over the southern Rockies is
supporting gale force winds just north of the forecast area, with
fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail off the coast of Baja California
Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
8-11 ft range off Baja California Norte and 6-7 ft off Baja
California Sur. Seas are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere off the coast of
Mexico. Farther south, long- period SW swell persists across the
Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes.
The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will
diminish slightly tonight as the low pressure to the east shifts
eastward. Winds will increase once again into mid week off Baja
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California as a cold
front moves into the area. Large NW swell will increase seas to
13 ft near Guadalupe Island today. The swell will spread SE, with
seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by
Mon, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, where the NW swell will mix
with SW swell.
Farther south, a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will
support strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon
night and Tue.
Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high
pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late
week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to
start Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will
likely increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This
situation will be monitored over the next two to three days, and
a storm warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners
planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later
this week should keep aware of this developing forecast.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the
early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to
strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1029 mb high pressure is centered near 31N137W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to E trades
across much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W.
NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters north of 15N and west of 130W. This swell will continue
to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering
much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week,
mixing with SW swell east of 120W.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Feb 16 00:04:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 151519
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 03N98W to 05N105W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N105W to 06N122W, with 1010 mb low pressure near 06N125W,
then continues from 05N127W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N to 11N between 102W and 105W, and from
06N to 10N between 107W and 112W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between 1029 mb high pressure centered
near 31N136W and low pressure over the southwestern United
States is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of
the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere, except moderate to fresh south of the coast of Oaxaca.
Seas are in the 8-12 ft range off Baja California Norte and 7-10
ft off Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere off
the coast of Mexico, except to 7 ft south of the coast of
Oaxaca, with long-period SW swell persists across the waters
south of Cabo Corrientes.
Winds will strengthen off Baja California Norte and the northern
Gulf of California Tue and Tue night as a cold front moves into
the area. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast in the Gulf of
California Thu night and Fri as the pressure gradient across the
area tightens. Large NW swell off Baja California will spread
southeast, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo
Islands today, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, where the NW
swell will mix with SW swell.
Farther south, a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will
support strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight
and Tue.
Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high
pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late
week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to
start Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will
likely increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This
situation will be monitored over the next two to three days, and
a storm warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners
planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later
this week should keep aware of this developing forecast.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the
early mornings, increasing to fresh Tue night, then increasing to
fresh to strong Fri and Fri night. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds will persist across the region, except pulsing to moderate
in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate SW swell will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days.
Looking ahead, large seas generated by a strong gap wind event
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may propagate through the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1029 mb is centered near 31N136W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of
120W.
NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters northwest of a line from Baja California to 05N120W to
03N140W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward, with
seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N
and west of 105W by mid week, subsiding by the end of the week.
The NW swell will mix with SW swell east of 120W.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 10 02:42:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 092202
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A broad high pressure ridge
across the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico has weakened during
the past 12 hours. The associated pressure gradient between the
ridge and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough has also
weakened, and allowed northerly gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec to diminish below gale force, to around 30 kt this
afternoon. The Gale Warning has thus ended as of 1800 UTC. Seas
downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are in the 9-13 ft range.
Winds and seas will diminish gradually through most of tonight
and then significantly on Sun as the pressure gradient loosens.
Winds are expected to diminish below 20 kt and seas less than 6
ft by Sun evening. Looking ahead, another gale-force wind event
is expected to start Mon and continue through early Fri. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pql81Z1_rnDJDSRNZAML0AmSyguZbwjRFEQ-XzsLk7SZrFCwGdlqalWgrAiDeFdLJizaK2GZ$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N70W to 09N82W to 06N98W to
06.5N105W. The ITCZ continues from 07N106W to 08N118W to 06N134W
to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02.5N
to 06.5N between 78W and 88W, from 06N to 11N between 105W and
118W, and from 13N to 16.5N between 101W and 109W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 09N
between 122W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features above for details on the improving marine
conditions across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as well as Gale
Conditions Possible there next week.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected
across the offshore waters of Baja California and north of Cabo
San Lazaro through tonight, then become N to NE winds over the
next several days as a ridge remains in place just NW of the
area. Large NW swell, with seas in the 10-13 ft range west of
Baja California Norte, and in the 8-11 ft range west of Baja
California Sur dominate the waters west of the Baja peninsula.
Additional pulses of large NW swell will continue to propagate
across this region through next week.
Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across
the Gulf of California this afternoon. Winds are forecast to
increase from north of south across the basin this evening into
early Sun as high pressure builds over the Great Basin region of
the United States. Winds in the northern and central Gulf are
expected to become fresh to strong tonight, then diminish to
moderate to fresh through early next week. Peak seas are expected
to build to around 6 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will
pulse to strong at night through the middle of the upcoming week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough through Mon, except for moderate to
briefly fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama.
Large seas generated by gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec
region continue to move through the outer offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador this afternoon, but will subside
tonight through Sun as winds diminish across Tehuantepec. Large
NW seas will develop again across these waters early next week as
another gale force wind event develops across the Tehuantepec
region.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad high pressure ridge prevails over the northern waters.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 121W.
Seas in this area are in the 8-13 ft range in a mix of NW swell
and E-NE wind waves. These general marine conditions will
persist during the next few days, while the NW swell gradually
propagates southeastward, and is replaced by a new pulse of NW
swell Mon and Tue.
Long period NW swell continues to propagate across most of the
forecast waters, with sea heights of 8-12 ft covering much of
the waters west of 100W. Seas are now peaking near 14 ft N of
27N between 117W and 130W. Another pulse of NW swell will enter
into the NW waters during the next several hours, with seas
peaking near 20 ft there early tonight. Yet another pulse of NW
swell will enter the NW waters Tuesday.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 10 17:36:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 100840
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW
Gulf of Mexico tonight. This cold front will push across the
Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche Mon afternoon.
Northerly winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, increasing winds to gale force Mon afternoon. The
gale force winds area forecast to continue through early Fri.
Large seas generated from this gap wind event will spread well
downwind and away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas greater
than 12 ft reaching as far as 10N100W Tue night. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oDwbJiTLws-yDcSjiRXmEtx9-q0Ouf-jfS-JIbDyMEIJ7rW84EUUSa2CDshW2NOuDtV9S9c_$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 09N84W to 06N92W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N92W to 08N115W to 06N128W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between
115W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 125W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong to near gale force winds, and seas to 10 ft, prevail over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds and seas across the Tehuantepec
region will decrease today. Another gale force gap wind event is
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Mon afternoon.
Please see Special Features above for more information.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected
across the offshore waters of Baja California and north of Cabo
San Lazaro over the next several days as a ridge remains in
place just NW of the area. Large NW swell, with seas in the 10-12
ft range dominate the waters west of the Baja peninsula.
Additional pulses of large NW swell will continue to propagate
across this region through the upcoming week.
Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase from north to
south across the basin today as high pressure builds over the
Great Basin region of the United States. Winds in the northern
and central Gulf are expected to become fresh to strong this
morning, then diminish to moderate to fresh through early next
week. Peak seas are expected to build to around 6 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will
pulse to strong at night through the middle of the upcoming week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough through Mon, except for moderate to
briefly fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama.
Large seas generated by gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec
region will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador starting early this week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 31N129W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 120W. Seas in this
area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and E-NE wind
waves. These general marine conditions will persist during the
next few days, while the NW swell gradually propagates
southeastward, and is replaced by a new pulse of NW swell Mon and
Tue.
Long period NW swell continues to propagate across most of the
forecast waters, with sea heights of 8-12 ft covering much of
the waters west of 100W. Another pulse of NW swell has entered
into the NW waters. This swell is bringing seas 12 ft or greater
NW of a line from 30N131W to 23N140W, with seas peaking near 21
ft. Yet another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters
Tuesday.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jan 12 03:43:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 112123
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Around 15Z, a scatterometer
pass provided observations of minimal gale force winds across the
Tehuantepec region, with fresh to strong winds affecting the
waters N of 14N between 94W and 96W. Northerly winds, behind a
cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will continue to
funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gale conditions, with winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, are forecast
to continue through Thu. Large seas generated from this gap wind
event will spread well downwind and away from the Tehuantepec
area, with seas greater than 12 ft reaching as far as 10N100W Tue
night. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to diminish below gale
force Thu through Fri, with another gale force gap wind event
during the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vr28STwURJUJ7PQc2CMDwQlIvThi_QcBFM3SVdiFiG2NN63UyPJ9ZGW-EADaaIn9BshFv4O5$
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N95W to 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 07N between 78W and 83W, from 07N
to 11N between 115W and 127W, and 120 nm south of the ITCZ axis
between 134W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gale force winds are currently blowing across the Tehuantepec
region. Please see Special Features section for more details.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected
across the offshore waters of Baja California over the next
several days as a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to
propagate through the waters west of the Baja California
peninsula. Seas of 10-14 ft prevail N of Cabo San Lazaro this
afternoon while seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted elsewhere west of
the Baja peninsula, extending further south to beyond the
Revillagigedo Islands. Additional pulses of large NW swell will
reach this region maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over this
area for much of the week.
Gulf of California: A recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to
strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California. High
pressure centered over the Great Basin region of United States
will support fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the north
and central parts of the Gulf through midweek. Peak seas are
expected to build to around 6 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will
pulse to strong at night through the middle of the week. Seas
will build to 9 or 10 ft. Outside of the gap winds areas, mainly
light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough
while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to the south.
Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will impact the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through Thu.
Seas will peak 10-13 ft on Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near 32N127W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong
trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this
area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind
waves. These general marine conditions will persist during the
next few days.
Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across most of
the forecast waters over the next several days. Another pulse
of NW swell is currently spreading SE across the forecast region
with seas of 12-14 ft N of a line from 30N116W to 25N115W to
18N130W to 30N125W.. Another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW
waters Tuesday, with seas peaking 16 or 17 ft near 30N140W. Yet
another pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night,
with seas of up to 18-19 ft near 30N140W. These successive sets
of NW swell will maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the
forecast waters west of 100W through the week.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Jan 14 01:59:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 132137
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico along
with the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough continues to
support gale force winds across the region. Seas are up to 14 ft.
The area of high pressure will weaken and shift eastward tonight
into Thu. This will loosen the pressure gradient, diminishing
winds below gale force by Thu morning along with subsiding seas.
Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec again Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oXShycPuXRTLXJxc2_ic23tW7tD1Xo7mo1VVLA0SKX7ahIaamjvIfXRpRkU3_aTTCshzqIGM$
for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends off the Colombia coast near 05N77W to
06N40W to a 1010 mb low near 07N100W to 06N113W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N113W to 06N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from
04N to 08N between 80W to 88W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 91W to 106W and from 06N to 09N
between 126W to 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Please
see Special Features section for more details.
Mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected across the
offshore waters of Baja California over the next several days as
a ridge remains in place. NW swell continues to propagate through
the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in
the 7-11 ft range through Fri. Seas will briefly subside below 8
ft through Sat. A new set of NW swell will enter the waters off
Baja California Norte on Sat and spread across the waters west
of Baja California through Sun. Seas will subside briefly by Mon
morning as another set of NW swell enters the region and continue
into Tue.
In the Gulf of California, high pressure centered over the Great
Basin region of United States is supporting fresh to locally
strong NW winds across the central and south parts of the Gulf of
California. Peak seas are around 6 ft. These winds will persist
today before diminishing by Thu morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Papagayo region, nightly fresh to strong winds are
expected through the weekend and into early next week. Outside
of the gap winds areas, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW
winds are expected to the south.
Large seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will impact the
outer portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Seas over this area will be in the 8-10 ft range
through Thu night before subsiding below 8 ft early Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 34N127W. The pressure
gradient between the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 115W. Seas in this area
are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind
waves.
Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast
region, with seas 8 ft or greater across the waters west of
100W. The pulse of NW swell has been propagating across the NW
waters with seas greater than 12 ft NW of a line from 30N125W to
17N140W. Seas will begin to subside by Thu. Another pulse of NW
swell will enter the NW waters Thu night as a cold front
approaches the area. Seas with this swell will peak to 16 ft
near 30N140W early Fri. This swell event will propagate eastward
toward Baja California through Sat. By Sat morning, another cold
front will approach the area and bring another pulse of NW swell
Sat through Sun. This swell event will peak near 17 ft on Sun
near 30N140W. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain
seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters west of
100W through early next week.
$$
AREINHART
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 27 02:31:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 262217
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 10N73W to near 03N91W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N91W to 05N110W to 05N125W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N
to 06N east of 87W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 07.5N between 122W and 139W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure in excess of 1040 mb across the open NE
Pacific waters extends a broad ridge axis SE to near 13N106W.
Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted offshore of
Baja Mexico to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh northerly winds
prevail in the central and southern Gulf of California where the
pressure gradient behind a cold front remains tight. The winds
in the Gulf of California will gradually diminish through early
tonight, then will quickly increase to to strong beginning in the
northern Gulf early Sun, spreading southward through early next
week. These winds will also filter through gaps in the higher
elevations of Baja California early next week.
NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California
Norte with seas of 6-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell
will build by Sat morning, supporting large seas N of Punta
Eugenia. Seas will peak around 14 ft. This swell will reach Baja
California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon.
Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Moderate northerly winds will across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
further diminish through this evening, then remain variable
through Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong
across the Papagayo region through Tue night with seas building
to around 8-9 ft at night. These fresh winds and higher seas
will reach to near 95W each afternoon.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse in the
Gulf of Panama through Tue, increasing to strong during the night
hours through Mon with seas building to 5-7 ft at night.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will
dominate elsewhere through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Surface high pressure covers the open waters west of Baja
California and extends southeastward into the tropics to
13N106W. This weather pattern is supporting fresh to strong
trades from near 06N to 18N and west of 115W, with fresh to
strong N-NE winds north of 22N and west of 125W or so. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of
110W. These winds will persist through Sat night, then will
diminish into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. A
cold front may move into the northern waters by late Mon.
NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with
seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt. Large
northerly swell is forecast to propagate southward tonight
through Sun, with seas building to 12-15 ft north of 25N between
118W and 134W. This swell will continue moving southward across
the region through early next week, gradually subsiding Mon and
Mon night. New large northerly swell may arrive behind the
aforementioned cold front Tue.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Feb 27 19:11:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 271602
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to
05N79W to 06.5N90W to 04N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to
06N115W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 07N and east of 82W, and from
04.5N to 06N between 119W and 139W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area near
41N144W with a ridge axis extending southeast to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds
are noted offshore of Baja Mexico and in the central and southern
Gulf of California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds in the
Gulf of California will quickly increase to strong beginning in
the northern Gulf early Sun, spreading southward through Mon.
Wind gusts to near gale force are expected during this time. These
winds will also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of
Baja California Sun night through early next week to produce
strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters.
NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California
Norte with seas of 6-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell
will build by later this morning, supporting large seas N of
Punta Eugenia, peaking around 14 ft. This swell will reach Baja
California Sur Sun evening and gradually subside through Mon.
Seas will remain 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong
across the Papagayo region through Wed night with seas building
to around 8-9 ft at night. These fresh winds and higher seas will
reach to near 95W each afternoon.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extending southward to 04.5N, and will pulse to
strong at night through Sun night, then again Wed night. Seas
will build to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will
dominate elsewhere through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1046 mb high pressure is centered northwest of the area near
41N144W with a ridge axis extending southeast to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. This weather pattern is supporting fresh
to strong trades from near 06N to 20N and west of 120W, with
fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and west of 123W or so.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
west of 110W. These winds will persist through tonight, then will
diminish into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.
A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters by
late Mon, weakening through early next week.
NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with
seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt in mixed NE
wind waves. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate
southward this morning through Sun, with seas building to 12-16
ft north of 25N between 117W and 132W. This swell will continue
moving southward across the region through early next week,
gradually subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell
will arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue.
$$
Stripling
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From
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All on Sun Feb 28 03:29:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 272144
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to
04.5N79W to 06N88W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to
06N117W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N between 78W and 84W, and
from 04N to 06N between 123W and 137W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area near
38N142W with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north
of the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate
northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico and from the
southern Gulf of California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds
in the Gulf of California will quickly increase to strong
in the northern Gulf early Sun, then spread southward through
Mon. Wind gusts to near gale force are expected Sun, with seas
building to 8-10 ft across central then south portions Sun
afternoon through Sun night. These winds will also filter
through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California Sun
night through early next week to produce strong NE winds spilling
into the Baja offshore waters.
NW swell continues to impact the waters off Baja California
Norte with seas of 6-9 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell
will build through Sun, supporting large seas N of Punta
Eugenia, peaking around 14 ft across the outer NW waters. This
swell will reach Baja California Sur Sun evening and gradually
subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7 ft n mixed swell
elsewhere.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec early Tue through Wed night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse to strong
across the Papagayo region through Wed night with seas building
to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and higher seas
will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, and will pulse to strong
at night through Sun night, then again Wed night. Seas will build
to 5-7 ft at night during the strongest winds.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will
dominate elsewhere through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1041 mb high pressure is centered northwest of the area near
38N142W with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north
of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh
to strong trades from near 06N to 21N and west of 122W, with
fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and west of 118W or so.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
west of 110W. These winds will persist through tonight, then will
diminish into early next week as the high weakens considerably
and the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front is expected to
move into the northern waters late Mon, weakening through Wed as
it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters.
NW swell with seas of 8-12 ft covers the northwest waters, with
seas in the 7-11 ft range across the trade wind belt in mixed NE
wind waves. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate
southward through Sun, with seas building to 12-16 ft north of
25N between 117W and 132W. This swell will continue moving
southward across the region through early next week, gradually
subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell will
arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue.
$$
Stripling
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From
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All on Sun Feb 28 16:37:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 280811
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from western Colombia near 09N75W to
06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 03N120W to 05N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 08N and east of 79W, and from 03N to 07N between 120W and
125W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area with a
broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico. Winds in the
Gulf of California will quickly increase to strong in the
northern Gulf this morning, then spread southward through Mon.
Wind gusts to near gale force are expected later today, with
seas building to 8-10 ft across central portions first then south
portions this afternoon through tonight. These winds will also
filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja California
this afternoon through the early part of the week to produce
strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters. A
decaying cold front may move across the Baja California region by
mid-week.
NW swell is building seas across the waters off Baja California
Norte with seas of 8-14 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell
will continue to build through today, supporting large seas
north of Punta Eugenia, peaking around 15 ft across the outer
NW waters. This swell will reach Baja California Sur this
evening and gradually subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7
ft in mixed swell elsewhere. Another set of NW swell with large
seas will be possible Wed through Thu, subsiding by the end of
next week.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Tue through early Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo
region through Thu night with seas building to around 8-9 ft
each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore
to near 95W each afternoon.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, pulsing to strong at night
through tonight. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the
strongest winds.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will
dominate elsewhere through mid-week. No significant swell events
are forecast during the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure is centered northwest of the area with a
broad ridge axis extending southeast to just north of the
Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong trades from near 05N and west of 117W or so.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
west of 110W. These winds will persist through early today, then
will diminish into early in the week as the high weakens
considerably and the pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front is
expected to move into the northern waters late Mon with
increasing winds, weakening through Wed as it moves SE and
reaches the Baja offshore waters.
Large NW swell has moved into the north-central waters with seas
of 12-15 ft north of 25N between 117W and 132W. Seas of 7-11 ft
cover the remainder of the waters north of 03N and west of 120W.
The large NW swell will continue moving southward across the
region through early week, gradually subsiding Mon and Mon
night. New large northerly swell will arrive behind the
aforementioned cold front Tue, spreading east-southeast through
mid-week. Another set of large NW swell may reach the far
northwest waters by the end of the week.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
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All on Mon Mar 1 02:23:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 282217
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from low pres near 09.5N74W 1006 mb to
low pres near 09N84W 1006 mb to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from
04N102W to 05.5N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N and east of
88W, from 02.5N to 04.5N between 102W and 107W, and from 03.5N
to 05N between 129W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure remains centered northwest of the area with
a broad ridge axis extending southeast to just SE of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds are noted offshore of Baja Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of
California have increased to strong in the northern and central Gulf
today, and will spread southward across the entire Gulf through
Mon. Wind gusts to near gale force are expected this afternoon
and tonight, with seas building to 8-10 ft across central
portions first then south portions tonight. These winds will
also filter through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja
California this afternoon through the early part of the week to
produce strong NE winds spilling into the Baja offshore waters. A
decaying cold front will move across the Baja California region
by mid-week.
NW swell has peaked across the waters off Baja California Norte,
where seas are now 8-12 ft north of Punta Eugenia. This swell
will continue to support large seas north of Punta Eugenia, and
will reach Baja California Sur this evening and gradually
subside through Mon. Seas will remain 4-7 ft in mixed swell
elsewhere. New NW swell with large seas is expected possible Wed
through Thu, subsiding by the end of the week.
Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are forecast in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Tue through early Fri.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo
region through Thu night with seas building to around 8-9 ft
each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore
to near 95W each afternoon.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extend southward to 04.5N, pulsing to strong at night
through tonight. Seas will build to 5-7 ft at night during the
strongest winds.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will
dominate elsewhere through mid-week. No significant swell events
are forecast during the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1035 mb high pressure remains centered northwest of the area near
35N139W, with a broad ridge axis extending southeast to the
Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong trades to the N of 04N and west of 120W or so.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
west of 110W. These winds will diminish over the next few days
as the high pressure weakens considerably and the pressure
gradient relaxes. A cold front is expected to move into the
northern waters late Mon with increasing winds, then weakening
through Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters.
Large NW swell that has moved into the north-central waters has
peaked with seas of 12-15 ft north of 25N between 118W and 130W.
Seas of 7-11 ft cover the remainder of the waters north of 03N
and west of 120W. The large NW swell will continue moving
southward across the region through early week, gradually
subsiding Mon and Mon night. New large northerly swell will
arrive behind the aforementioned cold front Tue, spreading east-
southeast through mid-week. Yet another round of large NW swell
is expected to reach the far northwest waters by the end of the
week.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Mar 2 02:57:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 012115
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build south
across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will move
across the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week.
Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by early Tue, increasing to minimal gale force Tue
night. Winds should diminish back to fresh to strong early Wed,
then will persist through the end of the week. Seas will peak
around 12 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center
at the website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!st77Ij_PbKnrQKEYnqzcrJX5SlE_klUNsXfLjDIMGH-8anlirlViWa6vBwa1nJ1XD_DjvIEt$
for more
details.
Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow
damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant
moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a
surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean
temperatures will lead to very heavy rains over the mountainous
terrain over the next few days. This heavy rain could lead to
flash flooding and mudslides.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 06N79W to 04N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N100W to 04N122W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 78W and 101W,
and from 02N to 07N between 116W and 137W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event.
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a
broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. Surface troughing over northwest Mexico is supporting
fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California. These winds are
filtering through gaps in the higher elevations of Baja
California. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central and southern Gulf of
California with these winds. The fresh to strong winds will
persist through early Tue. Seas will subside as the winds
diminish. A decaying cold front will move across the Baja
California region Wed night into Thu.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail
offshore of Mexico. NW swell of 7-9 ft prevails north of 20N and
west of Baja California. This swell will gradually decay into
tonight. Additional sets of NW swell are forecast late Wed
through the end of the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy
rain and flooding potential over western Colombia over the next
couple of days.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo
region through early Fri with seas building to around 8-9 ft
each night. These fresh winds and higher seas will reach offshore
to near 95W each afternoon.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extend southward to 04.5N.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will
dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell is
forecast during the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area with a
broad ridge axis extending southeast to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. This high pressure continues to weaken. A cold front is
expected to move into the northern waters this evening with
increasing winds. The front will then gradually weaken though Wed
as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. Low
pressure will likely accompany this front, with the potential for
near gale force winds W of this low on Tue. Mariners traversing
the area should monitor the latest forecast in case a gale
warning is required.
Decaying NW swell N of 20N is still contributing to seas of 7 to
9 ft N of the ITCZ. New large northerly swell will arrive behind
the aforementioned cold front and backside of the low tonight
into early Tue, spreading east- southeast through mid- week. Yet
another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far
northwest waters toward the end of the week.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Mar 3 23:36:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 031602
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow
damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant
moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a
surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean
temperatures will lead to periods of heavy rainfall over the
mountainous terrain through Thursday morning. This heavy rain
could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer
to local statements issued by your national meteorological
agency.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia to 03N85W to 04N98W to 02N110W to 05N128W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N128W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within about 60 nm S of the trough between
108W and 119W, and from 03N to 06N between 126W and 138W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds have diminished below gale force in
the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will then
persist through Thu night. Seas will gradually subside to less
than 8 ft by Thu night. Another gale-force gap wind event is
expected in the Tehuantepec area Sat night through Mon night.
A decaying cold front will move across northern Baja California
into the Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to strong southerly
winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California ahead of
the front late this morning and diminish early Thu morning. As a
high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the front,
expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the
central and southern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia,
today, ahead of a cold front approaching the offshore forecast
waters of northern Baja California. Seas will build to 8-12 ft in
NW swell by tonight. A second set of NW swell will impact these
same waters late Fri through Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy
rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia through Thu
morning.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas in the 7-10 ft range will
continue across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. These winds may increase to
fresh to strong on Sun with seas building to 8 ft W of 80W.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will
dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell event
is forecast during the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extends from 30N120W to 21N127W. Fresh to strong
winds are occurring on either side of the front forecast to move
eastward, reaching Baja California late today while weakening.
Large northerly swell continues to propagate across the northern
forecast waters in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.
This swell will spread east-southeast through Thu, peaking at
around 16 ft now near 29N133W before gradually subsiding into
Thu. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the
far northwest waters on Thu as a weaker cold front, with respect
to associated winds, moves into the northern waters. This swell
will propagate through most of the basin north of 10N and west of
110W through Sat.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Mar 5 00:37:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 041549 RRA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
05N90W to 03N100W. The ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 03N120W to
04N140W. A weak surface trough is within the ITCZ just W of 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between
87W-95W. Similar convection is from 05N-07N between 135W-140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong N winds will persist through
tonight. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late
tonight. A gale-force gap wind event is expected in the
Tehuantepec area Sat afternoon through Mon night. The forecast
calls for winds of 35-40 kt and seas building up to 15-16 ft.
Long period NW swell following the front will continue to affect
the waters west of Baja California through this evening, with
seas 7-10 ft offshore Punta Eugenia this morning. As high
pressure builds across the region, expect fresh to locally
strong northerly winds across the central and southern Gulf of
California tonight and Fri. These winds will spread beyond the
entrance of the Gulf, with fresh to locally strong N-NW winds
occurring within about 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between
Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes tonight and Fri.
Mainly moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected across the offshore
waters of Baja California during the next several days. A second
set of NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California
Fri night through Sun night, with seas of 8-11 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas generally in the 6-9 ft
range will continue across the Papagayo region through early next
week.
Fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of
Panama, possibly increasing to fresh to strong tonight, with
seas building to 8 ft near 80W by Fri morning. These marine
conditions will persist on Sat.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will
dominate elsewhere through the weekend. No significant swell
events are forecast during the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak upper-level trough is enhancing mid to upper-level
cloudiness with possible rain showers from 12N to 26N between
123W and 134W. The latest ASCAT data pass shows fresh NE winds
extending north from the ITCZ to 18N between 125W-136W. Moderate
to locally fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 05N-16N.
Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the northern
forecast waters in the wake of a cold front currently located
over NW Mexico. By Fri morning, seas of 8 ft or greater will
dominate most of the forecast waters N of 5N and W of 112W.
A new cold front will reach 30N140W this evening, followed by
another round of large NW swell. The front will extend from
30N135W to 27N140W on Fri morning. Seas will peak 16-17 ft over
the NW corner of the forecast area tonight into Fri morning.
This swell event will also propagate through most of the basin N
of 05N and west of 110W through Sat. High pressure in the wake of
the front will bring an increase in the trade wind flow on Sat.
Of note, during March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is
present in the Southern Hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin,
especially during La Nina events when the cold equatorial sea
surface temperatures are prevalent. Currently, the GFS model
suggests a second ITCZ south of the Equator and W of 120W.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Mar 10 18:10:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 102128
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Rainfall potential in Western Colombia: Heavy rainfall is
possible along and near the coast of Colombia at times, with
enhanced precipitation possible through the end of the week.
Mariners near the coast of Colombia are advised to be aware of
the possibility of reduced visibility from heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms. Please refer to forecasts and bulletins issued by
your National Meteorological Service for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 05N85W to 01N106W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N106W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 06N between 85W and 100W and from 01N to 08N
between 124W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through the next 24 hours. After that, light to
gentle variable winds will prevail across the area through the
forecast period. 8 to 10 ft seas will prevail through tonight,
then subsiding to 4 to 5 ft through the weekend and early next
week.
Fresh to strong NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro will spread
southward to Cabo Corrientes, including the southern Gulf of
California through the weekend. Large NW swell west of Baja
California will begin to decay Thu and Fri, allowing the seas to
subside to 8-9 ft, except in the area of fresh to strong winds.
A decaying cold front will approach Baja California Norte
tonight, with moderate to fresh winds becoming SW-W and
increasing. Highest winds will be near gaps in the coastal
terrain, where fresh to strong winds are possible. Winds in the
southern half of the Gulf of California will become fresh to
strong Fri night through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters west of southern
Mexico, except in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
See the Special Features section above regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall along and near the coast of Western Colombia.
Fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse across the
Papagayo region through the weekend, with highest winds expected
at night. Seas associated with these winds will remain 7 to 9 ft.
Fresh north winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night
through the weekend. Large northerly swell associated with
strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate through the
far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through this
evening. Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range,
will prevail elsewhere through the end of the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure ridging stretches east-southeastward to near
20N110W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure
south of 20N is supporting fresh to strong trade winds between
the ITCZ and 20N west of about 128W. Seas in this area are in the
8-12 ft range with long-period NW to N swell. The swell will
gradually shift east-southeast through Thu as a decaying cold
front moves across the NW part of the area.
Large long-period NW to N swell over the NW forecast waters
continues to produce seas of 10-12 ft. The swell will gradually
propagate east-southeast and mix with wind waves in the area of
fresh to strong trade winds. Reinforcing NW to N swell will move
through the northern waters later in the week. A low pressure
system west of the area may approach 140W by the end of the
weekend, bringing increased winds and seas.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Mar 11 18:51:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 112044
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Rainfall potential in Western Colombia: Heavy rainfall is
possible along and near the coast of Colombia at times, with
enhanced precipitation possible through Fri. Mariners near the
coast of Colombia are advised to be aware of the possibility of
reduced visibility from heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.
Please refer to forecasts and bulletins issued by your National
Meteorological Service for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 01N96W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N96W to 00N104W to 01N126W to 03N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 10N between 108W and 120W, and from 03N to 07N between 130W
and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California
Norte with moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Sur.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Gulf of California,
with mainly light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
west of Baja California, 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, and
4-6 ft elsewhere. NW swell west of Baja California will subside
through Fri, with seas subsiding slightly to 7-8 ft, except in
the area of fresh to strong winds.
A cold front has reached Baja California Norte. Winds in the
northern Gulf of California will shift to SW-W while increasing
tonight. Highest winds will be near gaps in the coastal terrain,
where fresh to strong winds are possible. Winds in the southern
half of the Gulf of California will become fresh to strong Fri
through Sun. Strong to near gale-force winds are expected near
Cabo Corrientes Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere over the offshore waters west of southern Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
See the Special Features section above regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall along and near the coast of Western Colombia.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted in the Papagayo region.
Moderate to fresh winds are in and downstream of the Gulf of
Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Sea heights are
generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft downwind from the Gulf of
Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse across
the Papagayo region through the weekend, with highest winds
expected at night. Seas associated with these winds will be 7 to
9 ft. Fresh north winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night
through the weekend. Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 3
to 6 ft range, will prevail elsewhere through Mon.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extends from Baja California Norte to 24N123W to
23N135W. The cold front will start to weaken and dissipate by
Fri. High pressure in the wake of the cold front will shift
eastward through Fri night, and support fresh to strong trade
winds over a large portion of the forecast area, roughly from 09N
to 24N west of 124W, through early Sat. Seas in this area will
remain in the 8-12 ft range. NW swell covers much of the waters N
of 03N and W of 110W. The swell will slowly subside the next few
days. Another cold front will reach NW waters on Sat, and extend
from 32N125W to 26N140W Sun. Large NW swell associated with the
front will move through the northern waters Sat night through
Mon. The front will usher in another set of NW swell, which will
peak near 13 ft over the NW waters Sun night.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 13 09:57:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 130800
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Rainfall potential in Western Colombia: Heavy rainfall is
possible along and near the coast of Colombia at times, with
enhanced precipitation possible today. Mariners near the coast
of Colombia are advised to be aware of the possibility of reduced
visibility from heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. Please
refer to forecasts and bulletins issued by your National
Meteorological Service for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ axis extends from 05N90W to 04N120W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N between
112W and 124W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California Norte while
fresh winds are noted west of Baja California Sur. Fresh to
locally strong winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate
winds are noted over the Gulf of California, with mainly light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 9 ft west of Baja
California, 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.
Winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will become
fresh to strong through Sun night. Strong to near gale-force
winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes tonight, as high
pressure builds southeast toward the area. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters west of
southern Mexico. A weakening cold front may approach waters
offshore Baja California Norte Mon night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
See the Special Features section above regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall along and near the coast of Western Colombia.
Strong NE to E winds are noted in the Papagayo region. Moderate
to fresh winds are in and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Sea heights are generally 3
to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo.
Fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse across the
Papagayo region into Mon night, with highest winds expected
during the overnights. Seas associated with these winds will be
6 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at
night into Mon night. Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 3
to 6 ft range, will prevail elsewhere through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1029 mb is centered north of the area near
32N133W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the ITCZ to
near 25N and west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft
range. NW swell covers much of the waters N of 03N and W of 110W.
The swell will slowly subside the next few days. Another cold
front will reach NW waters this evening, and extend from 32N128W
to 25N140W Sun. Large NW swell associated with the front will
move through the northern waters Sat night through Mon night,
peaking near 14 ft over the NW waters Sun.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 13 19:00:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 132040
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 05N89W to 03N95W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N95W to 01N103W to 06N118W to 05N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N
between 87W and 100W, from 05N to 10N between 119W and 127W, and
from 02N to 06N between 135W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California
Norte while fresh to strong winds are noted west of Baja
California Sur. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are noted over the northern Gulf
of California, with fresh to strong winds over the southern part
of the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 7 west of Baja California Norte and 7
to 9 ft west of Baja California. Over the northern Gulf of
California, seas in the 1 to 3 ft range prevail, with seas in the
4 to 7 ft range over the southern Gulf of California. In the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, seas are in the 6-7 ft range, with 4-6 ft seas
elsewhere.
Winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will
continue in the fresh to strong range through Sun night. Strong
to near gale- force winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes
tonight, as high pressure builds southeast toward the area.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere over the offshore
waters west of southern Mexico. A weakening cold front may
approach waters offshore Baja California Norte Mon night.
Looking ahead, the next gale force gap wind event will be
possible starting Thursday night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of
the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh winds are in and
downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Sea heights are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft
downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE winds will
continue to pulse across the Papagayo region into Mon night,
with highest winds expected during the overnight hours. Seas
associated with these winds will be 6 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds
in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night into Mon night. Light
to gentle winds, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range, will prevail
elsewhere through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1032 mb is near 30N128W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds
north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of 115W. Seas in this area
are in the 8-11 ft range. A cold front is approaching the NW
waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds are over the far NW
waters ahead of the front. the front will enter the NW waters
this evening, and extend from 32N128W to 25N140W Sun. The front
will usher in a new set of large NW swell into the area. This
swell will move through the northern waters tonight through Mon
night, peaking near 15 ft over the NW waters Sun.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Mar 14 09:22:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 140728
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ axis extends from 04N93W to 03N110W to 03N130W to
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 05N between 87W and 102W and from 03N to 08N between 119W and
135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail west of Baja California Norte
while fresh to strong winds are noted west of Baja California
Sur. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the northern Gulf of
California, with fresh to strong winds over the southern part of
the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 7 west of Baja California Norte and 7 to
9 ft west of Baja California. Over the northern Gulf of
California, seas in the 1 to 3 ft range prevail, with seas in the
5 to 8 ft range over the southern Gulf of California. Seas are
in the 4 to 6 ft range elsewhere.
Winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will
continue in the fresh to strong range through tonight. Strong
winds near Cabo Corrientes this morning will gradually diminish
later today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere
over the offshore waters west of southern Mexico. A weakening
cold front will cross Baja California Mon into Tue. In the wake
of this front, strong winds are possible in the northern Gulf.
Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are forecast to develop in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of
the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh winds are in and
downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Sea heights are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft
downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE winds will
continue to pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue, with
highest winds expected during the overnight hours. Seas
associated with these winds will be 6 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds
in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night into Tue. Light to
gentle winds, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range, will prevail
elsewhere into mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1031 mb is near 31N126W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong winds
north of the ITCZ to near 23N. Seas in this area are in the 8-11
ft range. A cold front is approaching the NW waters. Fresh
southerly winds are over the far NW waters ahead of the front.
This front will enter the NW waters this morning and reach
32N128W to 25N140W by tonight. Early next week, the front will
weaken as it moves east toward Baja California. The front will
usher in a new set of large NW swell into the area. This swell
will move through the northern waters through Tue, peaking near
15 ft over the NW waters today.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Mar 14 19:17:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 142041
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 02N103W to 05N120W to beyond
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 89W and 107W, from 08N to 10N between 110W and 120W, and
from 02N to 07N between 130W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California
Norte while moderate to fresh winds are noted west of Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted over the northern
Gulf of California, with fresh to strong winds over the southern
part of the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds are
noted elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 6 west of Baja California Norte
and 6 to 8 ft west of Baja California Sur. South of Baja
California Sur to Cabo Correientes, seas are 8-10 ft. Over the
northern Gulf of California, seas are 2 ft or less, with seas in
the 5 to 8 ft range over the southern Gulf of California. Seas
are in the 4 to 6 ft range elsewhere.
Winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will
continue in the fresh to strong range through tonight. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters
west of southern Mexico. A weakening cold front will cross Baja
California Mon into Tue. In the wake of this front, winds will
strengthen in the northern Gulf of California.
Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are forecast to develop in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted within and downstream
of the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh winds are in and
downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Sea heights are in the 5-7 ft range over and downwind
of both the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE winds will
continue to pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue, with
highest winds expected during the overnight hours. Seas
associated with these winds will be 6 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds
in the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night into Tue, with seas in
the 5-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 3 to 6
ft range, will prevail elsewhere into mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1029 mb is centered near 29N126W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds
north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 110W. Seas in this
area are in the 8-10 ft range. A cold front extends from 30N133W
to 26.5N140W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are noted west
of the front with gentle to moderate southwesterly winds ahead
of the front. The front will shift across the waters north of 25N
through early this week before weakening. The front has ushered
in a new set of large NW swell into the area, with seas peaking
near 14 ft over the far NW waters. This swell will move through
the northern waters through Tue before starting to subside.
Another cold front will enter the NW waters midweek. This front
will usher in another set of NW swell into the NW waters, peaking
near 13 ft on Thursday.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Mar 15 17:05:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 151548
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Mar 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
Surface trough extends from 10N85W to 06N88W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N88W to 02N110W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 07N between 89W and 102W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail west of Baja California.
Gentle winds are occurring over the northern Gulf of California,
with fresh winds over the southern Gulf of California, extending
to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5
to 7 ft to the west of Baja California and over the southern
Gulf of California extending south to Cabo Corrientes, with 3 to
6 ft seas elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh winds will gradually diminish to gentle to
moderate all areas today. A weakening cold front will cross Baja
California tonight into Tue. In the wake of this front, winds
will strengthen to strong in the northern Gulf of California
overnight into early Tue.
Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are likely to develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of the
Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Sea heights are in the 5-7 ft range over and downwind
of both the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Seas range
between 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Fresh NE winds will continue to
pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue night, with highest
winds expected during the overnight hours. Seas associated with
these winds will be 5 to 7 ft. Fresh north winds in the Gulf of
Panama will pulse at night through Tue, with seas in the 5-7 ft
range also. Light to gentle winds, with seas in the 3 to 6 ft
range, will prevail elsewhere through mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Surface ridge prevails across the area. The pressure gradient
in the area is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the
ITCZ to near 20N and west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the
8-10 ft range. A cold front extends from 30N125W to 26N140W.
Fresh to strong northeasterly winds prevail northwest of the
front. The front will continue moving east across the waters
north of 25N through Tue while weakening. The front has ushered
in a new set of large NW swell into the area, with seas peaking
near 13 ft over the far NW waters. This swell will move through
the northern waters into Tue night while slowly subsiding
subside. Another cold front will enter the NW waters on Wed.
This front will usher in another set of NW swell into the NW
waters, peaking near 13 ft once again on Thu.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Mar 16 14:31:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 161517
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from from 10N85W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues
from there to 01N108W to 05N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 131W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A cold front stretches across the central portions of the Gulf
of California/Baja California Peninsula and then across portions
of the subtropical eastern Pacific. Although shower activity is
quite limited along the boundary, fresh to strong northwesterly
to north winds are occurring behind the front. Seas are elevated
in the 8-11 ft range, highest over the far northern waters in
northwesterly swell. This front is expected to gradually weaken
during the next day or so, which should allow the winds and seas
to relax off Baja California later in the week.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are occurring off the west coast
of mainland Mexico. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft
in the Gulf of California.
Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are forecast to develop in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri, as high pressure builds south into
the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front that is forecast
to move across the Gulf of Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE to E winds are noted within and downstream of the
Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Sea
heights range from 4 to 6 ft, with some locally higher seas
downwind of the Papagayo region. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
will pulse across the Papagayo region into Wed. Seas associated
with these winds will be 5 to 7 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Trade winds are moderate to fresh across most of the area due to
a modest pressure gradient between the ITCZ and the subtropical
ridge. Another cold front is expected to move eastward across the
subtropics, causing an increase in southerly to southwesterly
flow east of the front. Otherwise, winds should remain moderate
during the next few days. However, northwesterly swell will keep
seas fairly elevated across a large portion of the region,
especially behind the front over the northwestern waters.
$$
Cangialosi
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Mar 23 15:33:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 231525
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 04N101W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N101W to 03N120W to 01N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 125W and 133W, and also from 00N to 03N between 134W and
140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N
between 81W and 87W, from 05N to 07N between 90W and 101W, from
06N to 10N between 120W and 125W, and also from 04N to 07N
between 138W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds. The pressure gradient
will tight some between a low pressure over the southwest U.S. and
higher pressure farther west of the eastern Pacific this
morning, resulting in fresh to locally strong NW winds across the
waters north of Punta Eugenia. These winds will diminish by Wed
morning. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell will continue to
propagate across the waters north of Punta Eugenia through Wed,
subsiding to less than 8 ft by Thu.
Fresh to strong westerly winds are expected across the north and
central parts of the Gulf of California later today as a weak
cold front or frontal trough moves across the area. These winds
will also diminish on Wed. Looking ahead, another front will
approach the region later in the week, supporting fresh to strong
westerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu night
into Fri. Farther south, no gap wind events are expected in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec the remainder of the week.
In addition, fresh to strong westerly winds are expected over
northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental this
afternoon and evening. These winds blow between canyons over a
higher terrain and then intensify. The mountain effect is
amplified in that region. Similar weather pattern will occur
again on Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo
through Thu night. Then, fresh to strong winds are forecast Fri
through Sat night as a ridge builds westward across the Gulf of
Mexico and the northwest Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Sat night.
Light to gentle winds will are expected elsewhere.
Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft
range across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
over the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A strong high pressure system of 1035 mb centered north of the
forecast area near 41N138W is supporting fresh to occasionally
strong trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. The
aerial extent of these winds will retract On Wed as the high
pressure moves northward.
Long period northerly swell dominates most of the forecast
waters west of 110W, while long period cross equatorial SW swell
continues to propagate across the area east of 110W, reaching
the coastal waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and
Ecuador. Additional pulses of SW swell will continue to invade
the region during the next several days.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Mar 24 15:48:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 241618
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 05N98W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N98W to 03N130W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 06.5N between 85W and 101W, and
from 03.5N to 10N between 114W and 128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad ridge associated with strong high pressure near 42N142W
dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California to Cabo
Corrientes, producing moderate to fresh NW winds, and fresh to
locally strong winds near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 8
to 12 ft in NW swell will prevail across the waters west of Baja
California today, subsiding to 6-7 ft by Thu night.
Strong westerly winds across the north and central part of the
Gulf of California overnight have become N to NW and diminished
to moderate to locally fresh this morning, and are expected to
diminish further today and early tonight. A surface trough will
approach the northern Gulf of California Thu afternoon, with
strong W to SW winds ahead of the boundary Thu through Fri
morning. Farther south, no gap wind events are expected in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data overnight showed mostly gentle to moderate
winds in the forecast waters. Seas are estimated to be in the 3
to 5 ft range.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo
region Fri night through Sun night. Mainly light to gentle winds
are expected elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell will
prevail across the region the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1038 mb high pressure centered north of the forecast area near
42N142W is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds north
of the ITCZ and west of around 115W. The extent of these winds
will retract today as the high pressure shifts northward.
Long period northerly swell dominates most of the forecast
waters west of 110W, while long period cross-equatorial SW swell
continues to propagate into the area east of 110W, reaching the
coastal waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador.
Additional pulses of SW swell will continue across the region
through the weekend.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Mar 25 13:12:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 251618
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 05N95W to 05N101W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 05N111W to 03.5N140W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06.5N between
90W and 124W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad ridge associated with strong high pressure near 36N145W
dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California to Cabo
Corrientes, producing gentle to moderate N winds across the
forecast area. Seas are 6-7 ft in northerly swell across the
waters from Cabo Corrientes northwest, except to 8 ft across the
far NW waters just west of Isla Guadalupe. Seas will gradually
subside to 5-6 ft by Fri morning but remain 7-8 ft across the far
NW waters.
A surface trough has developed across the far northern Gulf of
California this morning, ahead of a cold front sinking southward
across southern California and the adjacent offshore waters. AS
the front approaches the northern Gulf of California late this
afternoon, strong SW to W winds will developing ahead of the
boundary this afternoon through Fri morning. Winds near 30 kt
with gusts to gale force are expected north of 30N in the Gulf
this afternoon and evening. The weakened front will move through
Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf Fri afternoon and
evening to bring a return to moderate northerly wind flow across
the area waters into the weekend. Farther south, no gap wind
events are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle winds across the forecast
waters, as a weak pressure gradient prevails across the western
Caribbean into the eastern tropical Pacific. Offshore winds of
15-20 kt prevail across and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and
the Gulf of Panama. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo region
Fri night through Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are
expected to persist elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell
will prevail across the region the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure centered north of the forecast area near 36N145W
is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of
around 120W. The areal extent of these winds will retract today
as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. Seas are 7 to 9
ft in a broad mix of swell across this area.
Northerly swell dominates most of the forecast waters west of
110W, while long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues to
propagate into the area east of 110W, reaching the coastal waters
of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Additional
pulses of SW swell will continue across the region through the
weekend.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Mar 26 16:19:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 261606
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 05N86W to 06N99W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 06N100W to 05N112W, then continues west of a
trough from 03N121W to a 1007 mb low pressure near 03N132W to
beyond 01N140W. A second ITCZ is noted from 02S111W to beyond
03S140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02 to 06N
between 125W and 136W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A scatterometer satellite pass from around 06 UTC indicated SW
gap winds of 20 to 30 kt in the northern Gulf of California,
ahead of a trough moving across far southern California and the
adjacent Pacific waters. Seas in this area of the Gulf of
California north of 29N are 5 to 8 ft, as confirmed by a pair of
recent altimeter satellite passes. A ridge extends along roughly
20N, south of the trough, supporting gentle to moderate winds
over the remainder of the Gulf of California and the offshore
waters of Baja California. Seas off Baja California are 5 to 7
ft, although NW swell up to 8 ft is reaching the waters around
Guadalupe Island. Farther south, light to gentle breezes prevail
with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell in the Mexican
offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes, with light smoke from
agricultural and forest fires onshore over much of this area.
For the forecast, the strong southwesterly winds will continue
in the northern Gulf of California through this morning as the
trough moves southward across Baja California Norte and into NW
Mexico tonight through late today. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere. High pressure behind the trough
will build modestly across the area Sat and Sun to freshen the
northerly wind flow across the offshore waters and southern Gulf
of California.
Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to
Tehuantepec Mon, possibly reaching gale force.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate
northerly gap winds into the northern Gulf of Panama, but light
westerly breezes elsewhere in Central American offshore waters.
However, the satellite passes missed the Gulf of Papagayo
region, where it is estimated moderate to fresh gap winds are
occurring. An altimeter pass from around 03 UTC confirmed seas of
4 to 6 ft, likely in SW swell. No significant weather is
observed, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are active just
south of Cocos Island, along a trough extending roughly east to
west along 06.5N.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds persist
across Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week, while
moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama.
Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate
long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next
several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure centered north of the
area near 44N139W to 20N119W then eastward into the Revillagigedo
Islands. Recent buoy and ship observations along with recent
scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate to fresh trade
winds from 07N to 20N west of 125W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to
9 ft in this area, with a component of northerly swell.
Additional northerly swell is evident north of 29N, accompanying
the weak trough approaching from the north. Long period SW swell
of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W.
For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area and
will support and expand the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft
seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through early
next week.
$$
Torres
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 27 09:10:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 270908
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through
the Gulf of Mexico Sun. Gap winds to gale force will follow the
front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Sun night and early Mon morning. Seas will build
to 12 ft by Mon morning, mixing with a component of longer period
S to SW swell. Winds and seas will diminish through Tue morning
as high pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf
of Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, another round
of gales is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the
week.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N85W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 06N95W to 06N115W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between
80W and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
07N between 115W and 122W, and from 05N to 07N between 128W and
133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Recent observations indicate a trough reaching from the southern
Rockies across Sonora, the central portion of Baja California
Sur before extending into the adjacent Pacific waters. Recent
scatterometer and altimeter satellite data indicates gentle to
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are currently noted off Baja
California, with light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of
California. South of 20N, gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted off southern Mexico, except for moderate to fresh NW winds
off Cabo Corrientes, as observed by the NOAA Ship Ron Brown.
For the forecast, the trough will dissipate through today. High
pressure building north of the area behind the front will support
fresh to strong NW winds across the central Gulf of California
tonight. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to
return to Tehuantepec late Sun night into Mon, possibly reaching
gale force. Looking ahead, winds and seas diminish across the
region into mid week, except for increased NW swell off Baja
California Norte by Wed night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Earlier scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to
fresh northeast to east gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo, but
light westerly breezes elsewhere in Central American offshore
waters. There is no recent information about winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo, but at least fresh gap winds are likely in that area. A
recent altimeter pass showed seas around 4 ft off western
Panama, but higher wave heights to six feet are likely elsewhere,
with long period SW swell still active in the area. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast
of the Azuero Peninsula of Panama.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will
persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, while
moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama.
Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate
long- period SW swell will prevail across the region the next
several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure centered north of the
area near 42N135W to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer
satellite data indicate fresh trade winds from 07N to 20N west
of 130W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, with a
component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft
dominates the tropical waters east of 110W.
For the forecast, an upper low centered near 25N135W may support
the development of a broad surface trough north of 20N near 140W.
But this will shift west of the area through Sun, allowing high
pressure to build north of the area. This pattern will support
and expand the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N
to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through mid week.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 27 18:10:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 272139
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through
the Gulf of Mexico Sun. Gap winds to gale force will follow the
front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Sun night and early Mon morning. Seas will build
to 12 ft by Mon morning, mixing with a component of longer period
S to SW swell. Winds and seas will diminish through Tue morning
as high pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf
of Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance
agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially Thu
morning and continuing into the next weekend.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 03N80W to 05N84W to 06N89W. The
ITCZ is analyzed from 06N90W to 06N115W to 02N139W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N
between 80W and 86W, and from 04N to 13N between 110W and 132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are currently noted
off Baja California through the offshores of Colima, Mexico, as
well as in the Gulf of California, however with seas to 3 ft.
Gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the offshores
of Michoacan to the Tehuantepec region.
For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area will
support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California
late this afternoon through Sun night. Farther south, northerly
gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec late Sun night
into Mon, reaching gale force. Looking ahead, winds and seas
diminish across the region into mid week, except for increased NW
swell off Baja California Norte by Wed night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds continue in the
Gulf of Papagayo, with light variable winds elsewhere in Central
American offshore waters. Seas are around 4 ft off western
Panama, but higher wave heights to six feet are likely elsewhere,
with long period SW swell still active in the area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast
of the Azuero Peninsula of Panama and along the coast of
Colombia.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will
persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, while
moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama.
Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate
long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next
several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure centered north of the
area near 43N134W to Baja California Sur. Fresh trade winds area
noted from 05N to 22N west of 130W. Seas are estimated to be 8
to 9 ft in this area, with a component of northerly swell. Long
period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east
of 110W.
For the forecast, an upper low may support the development of a
broad surface trough north of 20N near 140W. But this will shift
west of the area through Sun, allowing high pressure to build
north of the area. This pattern will support and expand the area
of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as
far east as 120W through mid week.
$$
Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Mar 28 06:47:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 280937
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through
the Gulf of Mexico today. Gap winds to gale force will follow
the front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by tonight. Seas will build to 11 ft by Mon morning,
mixing with a component of longer period S to SW swell. Winds
are expected to be below gale force by early Mon evening while
seas will subside by Tue morning as high pressure following in
the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts
east. Looking ahead, model guidance agrees on a second round of
gales starting potentially Thu morning and continuing into the
next weekend.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N90W to 06N110W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between
105W and 125W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Recent ship observations and scatterometer satellite pass
indicated moderate to fresh to strong northerly winds off the
Pacific coast of Baja California Sur, and in the central and southern
Gulf of California. The scatterometer satellite pass also indicated
moderate NW to N winds elsewhere north of 20N. Seas estimated to
be are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell off Baja California, 3 to 5 ft in
the southern Gulf of California, and 2 to 4 ft in the northern
Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes persist off southern
Mexico, with 3 to 5 ft seas in SW swell. A few showers are
possible near Clarion Island. Light smoke due to agricultural
and forest fires is noted over the offshore waters south of Cabo
Corrientes.
For the forecast, High pressure building north of the area will
support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California
though today. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to
return to Tehuantepec late tonight, reaching gale force, then
diminishing through Mon night. Looking ahead, gap winds to gale
force will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are
estimated to be 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are evident
in the Gulf of Panama. Light variable winds are noted elsewhere
in the Central American offshore waters with wave heights to six
in long period SW swell. A few showers are active along 06N south
of Panama.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will
persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu. Mainly gentle
to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long-period
SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from a high pressure centered north of the area
to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer satellite data
showed fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 130W. An
altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in this
area, likely with a component of northerly swell. Long period SW
swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W.
For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
support the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to
20N reaching as far east as 120W through mid week.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Mar 28 17:12:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 282144
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through
the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Gap winds to gale force will
follow the front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Seas will build to 11 ft by Mon
morning, mixing with a component of longer period S to SW swell.
Winds are expected to be below gale force by early Mon evening
while seas will subside by Tue morning as high pressure following
in the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and
shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance agrees on a second
round of gales starting potentially Thu morning and continuing
into the next weekend.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N87W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N87W to 04N114W to beyond 02N140W. A second
ITCZ is analyzed from 02N94W to 01S120W to 04S140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 107W and
122W and about 60 nm in the vicinity of the second ITCZ.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Latest scatterometer pass indicated moderate to fresh northerly
winds off the Pacific coast of Baja California, and in the
central and southern Gulf of California. The scatterometer
satellite pass also indicated light NW winds south of Punta
Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. Seas estimated to be in the range of
5 to 6 ft in NW swell off Baja California, 3 to 7 ft in the
southern Gulf of California, and 2 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf
of California. Light to gentle breezes persist off southern
Mexico, with 2 to 4 ft seas in SW swell. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible near Clarion Island. Light smoke due
to agricultural and forest fires is noted over the offshore
waters south of Cabo Corrientes.
For the forecast, High pressure building north of the area will
support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California
though early Monday. Farther south, northerly gap winds are
expected to return to Tehuantepec late tonight, reaching gale
force, then diminishing through tonight. Conditions will begin
to improve by Monday evening. Looking ahead, another gap wind
event to gale force will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by
Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted fresh to strong
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo this
afternoon north of 07N to 12N. Seas are estimated to be 8 ft.
Moderate to fresh N gap winds are evident in the Gulf of Panama.
Light variable winds are noted elsewhere in the Central American
offshore waters with wave heights to six in long period SW swell.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will persist
across Gulf of Papagayo region through the end of the week. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long-
period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several
days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from a high pressure centered north of the area
to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer satellite data
showed fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 140W. Altimeter
satellite pass indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in this area,
likely with a component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell
of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 116W.
For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
support the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to
20N reaching as far east as 120W through mid week.
$$
Torres
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From
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All on Mon Mar 29 13:24:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 291606
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled across
the western Gulf of Mexico along 95W to the central Bay of
Campeche this morning. Gap winds to gale force are following the
front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning. Seas will build to 11 ft this morning,
mixing with a component of longer period S to SW swell. Winds are
expected to diminish below gale force by early this evening
while seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Tue morning as high
pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf of
Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance
agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially Thu
morning and continuing into the next weekend.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 10N74W to 05N90W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N90W to 04N103W to 06N112W to beyond 04.5N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08.5N
between 111W and 134W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to continue
into the afternoon hours today. Please the Special Features
section above for more information.
Elsewhere NW to N winds are diminishing across Mexican offshore
waters from moderate to fresh around parts of Baja California to
gentle to moderate, as noted in overnight ship observations and
scatterometer satellite data. Wave height that were previously 4
to 6 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California are
subsiding to 3-4 ft this morning. Mainly SW swell is maintaining
3 to 5 ft seas south of Cabo Corrientes, with mainly NW swell
supporting 3 to 5 ft seas farther north.
Winds are diminishing north of 20N, but seas will build off Baja
California through mid week due to new NW swell. Looking ahead,
strong gales are possible again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu
as another cold front moves into the region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh E winds at Liberia, Costa Rica are indicative
of fresh to strong gap winds persisting across the nearby Gulf of
Papagayo and adjacent coastal areas of Nicaragua. In addition,
an altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 7 ft about 300 nm
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, in what is likely the plume
of fresh to strong gap. Seas to 9 ft are possible in this plume.
Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh N gap winds are also
possible through the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate winds continue over the Central American offshore waters
with 3 to 5 ft seas.
Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will persist across Gulf of
Papagayo region through the end of the week. Seas will build
from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala due to seas generated from
the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind areas mixing with longer
period SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from strong high pressure centered across the NE
Pacific to offshore of Baja California Sur. Overnight scatterometer
satellite data showed fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of
125W. Altimeter satellite data indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in
this area, likely with a component of northerly swell. Long
period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east
of 120W.
The high pressure north of the area will weaken and shift east
ahead of a cold front moving through the northeast Pacific. This
will allow the area of fresh trade winds to decrease to mainly
west of 135W through mid week. Large N swell accompanying the
front will reach as far south as 25N between 118W and 135W by mid
week. Farther east, seas will build to at least 8 ft from 05N to
10N between 95W and 110W due to east swell generated from gap
wind flow and persistent longer period SW swell.
$$
Stripling
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From
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All on Tue Mar 30 15:49:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 301606
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure, in the
wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front, will build southward along
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains
beginning late Wed into Thu. The resultant tight gradient
between it and lower pressure south of Mexico is expected to
result in a surge of strong to near gale-force winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region starting late Wed night. These winds are
forecast to reach gale-force speeds early Thu, with wave heights
building to the range of 10-14 ft.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low over northwestern
Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 06N80W and to 06N90W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 04N105W to east of a trough near 06N112W. It resumes
west of the trough at 05N122W to 04N136W and to beyond the area
at 04N140W. Scattered convection is within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 125W-129W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
upcoming gap gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region.
The earlier strong north to northeast gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region have diminished to strong speeds this
morning as pressure north of the area weakens. Wave heights
are still reaching as high as 8 ft downstream of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with a component of longer-period SW swell. These
wave heights will subside below 8 ft later this morning. The
swell is supporting 3 to 5 ft wave heights elsewhere off
southern Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes, with light to gentle
breezes. Farther north, gentle to moderate NW winds persist with
wave heights of 3-5 ft seas in open waters with mixed SW and NW
swell.
For the forecast, the strong winds gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will become light and variable winds this afternoon
as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward.
Looking ahead, strong gale-force winds are forecast for the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region beginning early Thu as another cold
front moves into the region. Farther north, winds remain
diminished but seas will build off Baja California late today
through mid-week due to new NW swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
NE to E across the Gulf of Papagayo have increased to strong
speeds. Wave heights there are up to about 8 ft as well as
downstream of the plume of these winds. They are combining with
a component of longer-period SW swell. Fresh N gap winds are
also possible through the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere light to
gentle winds continue over the Central American offshore waters
with 3-5 ft wave heights.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will
persist across Gulf of Papagayo region, through the end of the
week. Wave heights will build from northern Costa Rica to
Guatemala later in the week, due to seas generated from the
Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind areas mixing with longer period
SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A nearly stationary upper-level low is identified on water vapor
imagery to be near 24N127W. Moisture levels have been increasing
in the divergent deep-layer southerly flow east of the upper low
and this is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 06N to 10N between 114W-1197W. This mid to upper-
level pattern is also supporting a surface trough farther south
into the deep tropics that is analyzed from near 10N115W to
03N122W. This is also supporting an area of moderate to fresh
trade winds to the west of the trough, with clusters of showers
and thunderstorms north of the ITCZ. An overnight scatterometer
satellite pass indicated a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds farther west, extending from 03N to 17N west of 128W. This
area is south of a 1040 mb high pressure center analyzed well
north of the area near 46N139W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in these areas
of trade winds, assisted by a component of SW swell. Farther
east in the deep tropics, gentle to moderate winds are noted with
wave heights of 4 to 6 ft due to a SW swell. The leading edge of
a set of NW swell is marked by wave heights of 8 ft north of 29N
and between 122W-130W. This set of NW will propagate through the
north- central waters into Thu, reaching south to near 26N.
Maximum wave heights with this swell is forecast to reach the
8-10 ft range by early Wed, then decay to less than 8 ft by early
Thu.
For the forecast, farther east, wave heights will build to at
least 8 ft from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W due to an
E swell generated from gap wind flow and persistent longer-
period SW swell.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Mar 31 14:12:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 311602
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure, in the
wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front, will build southward along
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains
beginning late today into Thu. The resultant tight gradient
between it and lower pressure south of Mexico is expected to
result in a surge of strong gale-force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region starting late tonight into early Thu as a
cold front quickly moves over the western Gulf of Mexico and
across southeastern Mexico. These gale conditions are expected to
continue into the upcoming weekend, diminishing to just below
gale force on Sun afternoon. Wave heights will build to 10-14 ft
Thu and to 12-18 ft Thu night through late Fri, before they
begin to slowly subside through Sun. Swell generated by this
event will spread well to the southwest and west of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region through the weekend. Mariners navigating
through these waters are urge to use caution as these impending
conditions are likely to lead to hazardous marine conditions.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 09N86W to 05N90W to 04N95W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
05N108W to 05N117W to 04N126W. It resumes at 04N130W to 03N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 08N between
123W and 127W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
upcoming gap gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region.
A surface trough west of Clarion Island is resulting in a weak
pressure pattern across the region north of 20N. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate winds throughout the Mexican
offshore waters north of 20. Seas are 3 to 4 ft north of 20N,
except 5 to 7 ft in NW swell off Baja California Norte. South of
20N, seas 5 to 7 ft in SW swell.
For the forecast, moderate winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will abruptly become strong gale force north to northeast winds
beginning late tonight into early Thu as a cold front quickly
moves over the western Gulf of Mexico and across southeastern
Mexico. These gale conditions are expected to continue into the
upcoming weekend, diminishing to just below gale force Sun
afternoon. Swell generated by this event will spread well to the
southwest and west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the
weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A thin volcanic ash plume originating over the interior of
Guatemala from the Fuego Volcano located over southern Guatemala
near 14.5N 90.9W is observed on satellite imagery spreading
southwestward across the Pacific coast of Guatemala between 13N
and 14N, but may not be sinking to near the surface at the
present time.
Fresh northeast winds are about 200 nm downstream of the
Papagayo area, indicating stronger gap winds are likely ongoing
closer to shore. Seas are likely up to 8 ft in the plume of gap
winds, with a component of longer-period SW swell. Elsewhere
light to gentle winds continue over the Central American offshore
waters with 3-5 ft wave heights.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will
continue across Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Seas
will build from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala by Thu, due to
seas generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind areas
mixing with longer-period SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A nearly stationary upper-level low is identified on water vapor
imagery to be near 26N124W. Mid to upper-level moisture is
present to the east of the low. A few showers and thunderstorms
are ongoing are possible from 26N to 28N between 125W and 130W.
This mid to upper level trough from 21N120W to 26N125W, and
farther south into the tropics, from 04N127W to 10N118W.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active from 05N to
08N between 123W and 127W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 8 to
9 ft seas are evident from 05N to 18N west of 130W. SW swell is
supporting 5 to 7 ft seas east of 130W, south of 20N. N swell is
propagating into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 130W,
and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere.
For the forecast, the swell north of 25N will subside through
Thu. Winds will diminish west of 130W as high pressure north of
the area weakens. Seas to 8 ft will persist over the deep tropics
through the latter part of the week with a component of northerly
swell west of 120W, and in a mix of SW and NE swell east of 120W.
The upper low near 25N125W will dissipate, allowing winds and
seas to dissipate Wed.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Apr 1 14:51:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 011533
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure, in the
wake of a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, is building
southward across the south-central U.S. and Mexico. The tight
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure to the
south has set up a late-season strong gale force gap wind event
across the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Winds are expected to increase to
near 45 kt over the gap later today or tonight and continue into
Sun. Wave heights will build to 10-15 ft later today and remain
high into Sun. Swell generated by this event will spread well to
the southwest and west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through
the weekend. Mariners navigating through these waters are urged
to use caution as these impending conditions are likely to lead
to hazardous marine conditions.
Volcanic Ash Advisory: The Picaya Volcano in southern Guatemala
located near 14.4N 90.6W is currently erupting and is producing a
plume of volcanic ash observed to be spreading out across the
offshore waters of Guatemala. The ash may reaching the surface of
the ocean, and may be reducing visibility to some extent. While
there have been no reports of volcanic ash reaching the surface
or reduced visibilities, mariners are still urged to exercise
caution and report and observations to the National Hurricane
Center by calling 305-229-4425.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 10N85W to 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from
06N91W to 06N110W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 81W and 86W
and from 04N to 07N between 106W and 113W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
ongoing gap gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region and on the Picaya Volcano.
Gentle to moderate winds continue throughout the Mexican
offshore waters north of 20N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N,
except 5 to 7 ft in NW swell off Baja California Norte. South of
20N, seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell.
For the forecast, high pressure building west of Baja California
will allow fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte this weekend.
Gentle to moderate NW winds will persist elsewhere across the Mexican
offshore waters outside of the Tehuantepec region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A Volcanic Ash Advisory is in effect for the Picaya Volcano in
southern Guatemala. See Special Features above.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are occurring across the
Gulf of Papagayo area due to high pressure building to the north
of the area. Seas are likely up to 10 ft in the plume of gap
winds, with a component of longer-period SW swell. Fresh N gap
winds are likely active across the Gulf of Panama, with a plume
reaching as far south as 05N in 5 to 7 ft seas. Elsewhere light
to gentle winds continue over the Central American offshore
waters with 3-5 ft wave heights.
For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will
continue across Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Seas
will build from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala by Thu, due to
seas generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind areas
mixing with longer-period SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Trade winds are mostly moderate across the area, except for
slightly stronger winds across the deep tropics west of about
130W. Despite the lack of strong winds, seas are elevated to 7 to
10 ft across the deep tropics due to mixed swell. Lighter winds
and lower seas exist across the subtropics, where the pressure
gradient is more relaxed. Little change is expected in the
overall pattern during the next couple of days. The models show a
low pressure system moving across the far northwestern waters
late this weekend, that could increase winds there.
$$
Cangialosi
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 2 06:56:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 020900
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Recent scatterometer data shows
gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to 45
kt. Winds are expected to remain 30 to 40 kt through Sun morning.
Wave heights will remain 12 to 17 ft into Sat. Swell generated
by this event will spread well to the west-southwest of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region through the weekend. Mariners navigating
through these waters are urged to use caution due to hazardous
marine conditions.
Volcanic Ash Advisory: Pacaya Volcano in southern Guatemala near
14.4N 90.6W is erupting, producing a plume of volcanic ash into
the coastal waters of Guatemala. The ash may reaching the ocean
surface, and may cause reduced visibility to some extent. While
there have been no reports of volcanic ash reaching the surface
or reduced visibilities, mariners are urged to exercise caution.
Report observations to the National Hurricane Center by calling
305-229-4425.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 10N84W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from
05N93W to 06N115W to 04N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 88W and 96W.
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of
the ITCZ axis between 99W and 105W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across the
Mexican offshore waters between 99W and 119W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft
in mixed SW and NW swell.
High pressure building west of Baja California will support
fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte this weekend. Gentle to
moderate NW winds will persist elsewhere across the Mexican
offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Volcanic Ash Advisory in effect for Pacaya Volcano in southern
Guatemala.
Scatterometer data shows a small area of fresh to winds near the
Gulf of Papagayo, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are
7-8 ft in the Papagayo region, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will continue across Gulf of
Papagayo region through Sun night. Seas will build from northern
Costa Rica to Guatemala, due to NE and E swell generated from the
Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind areas mixing with long period
SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Scatterometer data shows a narrow band of fresh easterly winds
from 06N to 07N between 93W and 99W. Seas are estimated to be 8
ft in this area. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted from 08N
to 19N west of 115W, with 7 to 8 ft seas. Lighter winds and lower
seas exist across the rest of the subtropics. Little change is
expected during the next couple of days for most of the forecast
area. The only exception will be in the far NW waters, where a
low pressure system tracking eastward along 33N will drag a weak
cold front into the area. Seas associated with the low and front
will increase to 8-11 ft Sun through Mon.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 3 08:09:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 030937
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong north to northeast gale-
force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to 40-45 kt,
will slowly diminish through tonight, becoming minimal gale force
early Sun, then diminishing to below gale force by Sun afternoon.
Wave heights will remain 11-17 ft today. Swell generated by this
event will spread well to the west-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region this weekend. Mariners are urged to use
caution due to the hazardous marine conditions.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N85W to 04N98W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N98W to 03N117W to 02N125W to 02N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between
118W and 122W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
The pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate northwest to
north winds west of Baja California. High pressure building west
of Baja California will tighten the gradient, with these winds
increasing to fresh through early next week. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds are noted. Wave heights are generally 5 to 6 ft in
mixed southwest and northwest swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Pacaya volcano in southern Guatemala near 14.4N 90.6W is active,
producing emissions of volcanic ash. The ash plume is spreading
southwestward into the coastal waters of Guatemala north of 13.7N
between 90.5W and 91W. There have been no reports of volcanic
ash at the surface or reduced visibilities, but mariners should
exercise caution. Report observations to the National Hurricane
Center by calling 305-229-4425.
Fresh to strong east-northeast winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Wave heights in the Papagayo region are in 8-9 ft range,
in a mix of northeast and southwest swell. Light to gentle winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the region.
Fresh to strong offshore northeast gap winds will continue across
in Papagayo region into early next week. Large seas will continue
west of Central America, from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala,
from swell generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo source areas
through Sun evening.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed near 29N127W. The resultant
gradient between the high and lower pressures in the tropics is
supporting fresh northeast to east trade winds from 07N to 17N
west of 110W, based on recent scatterometer data. Wave heights
within this area are around 8 ft in mixed north to northwest and
southerly swell. Little change is expected through the weekend
over this part of the discussion area. In the far NW waters, a
low pressure system is expected to meander north of 30N and west
of 140W for several days, and drag a weak cold front into the
area Sat night and Sun. The front is expected to stall and weaken
over the far NW waters, but seas generated by this low pressure
system are forecast to build to the 8-12 ft range Sun through
Mon, with highest seas expected in the far NW part of the area.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 3 16:11:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 032023
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale- force
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to 35 to 40 kt
evident on morning scatterometer data, will slowly diminish
through tonight, becoming minimal gale force early Sun, then
diminishing to below gale force by Sun afternoon. Wave heights
will remain 11-15 ft through this evening. Swell generated by
these winds will spread well to the west- southwest of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region this weekend. Mariners are urged to use
caution due to the hazardous marine conditions.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N80W to 05N87W to 04N97W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N97W to 03N120W to beyond 02N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between
117W and 126W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
The pressure gradient supports moderate to locally fresh
northwest to north winds west of Baja California. High pressure
building west of Baja California will tighten the gradient, with
these winds increasing to fresh to locally strong through early
next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Wave
heights are generally 5 to 6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest
swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong east-northeast winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region.
Wave heights in the Papagayo region are in 8-10 ft range, in a
mix of northeast and southwest swell. Moderate winds have
developed in and downwind of the Gulf of Panama today. Light to
gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the
region.
Strong offshore northeast gap winds will continue across in
Papagayo region into Mon. Large seas will continue west of
Central America, from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala, from
swell generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo source areas into
Monday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1023 mb is analyzed near 30N127W. The resultant
gradient between the high and lower pressures in the tropics is
supporting fresh northeast to east trade winds from 07N to 17N
west of 110W. Wave heights within this area are around 8 ft in
mixed north to northwest and southerly swell. Little change is
expected through the weekend over this part of the discussion
area. In the far NW waters, a low pressure system is expected to
meander north of 30N and west of 140W for several days, and drag
a weak cold front into the area tonight and Sun. The front is
expected to stall and weaken over the far NW waters, but seas
generated by this low pressure system are forecast to build to
the 8-12 ft range Sun through Mon, with highest seas expected in
the far NW part of the area.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 4 08:21:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 040908
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale-force
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish below gale force
by early this evening. Peak wave heights in the 13 to 14 ft
range will gradually subside to 11 to 12 ft today. Swell
generated by these winds will spread well to the southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region to near 10N100W today. Gale force
winds will briefly pulse again tonight with seas to 10 ft and
diminish to fresh to strong during Mon afternoon. Mariners should
exercise caution if transiting in this region.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N103W to 03N120W, then resumes from 02N130W to 02N140W.
Scattered moderate convection isolated tstms are from 02N to 05N
between 100W and 108W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
The pressure gradient between a ridge west of Baja California
and lower pressure over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to locally
strong NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters,
with the strongest winds being within 120 nm off the coast mainly
N of Punta Eugenia. These conditions are forecast to prevail
through Tue night while moderate to locally fresh NW winds are
expected over Baja California Sur offshores. Seas will be in the
4 to 7 ft range.
Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are along the Gulf of
California with seas to 3 ft. Winds are forecast to shift to
moderate SE winds on Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are
noted with wave heights generally in the 5 to 6 ft range in
mixed southwest and northwest swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong to near gale force east-northeast winds are in the Gulf
of Papagayo region with wave heights to 10 ft in a mix of
northeast and southwest swell. Fresh to strong NE winds are in
and downwind of the Gulf of Panama with seas to 8 ft. Light to
gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the
region.
Strong offshore northeast gap winds will continue across in
Papagayo region into Tue. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Panama will diminish tonight. Large seas will continue west of
Central America, from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala, from
swell generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo source areas into
Monday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high near 32N126W and
lower pressures in the tropics is supporting fresh northeast to
east trade winds from 05N to 15N west of 115W. Wave heights
within this area are around 8 ft in mixed north to northwest and
southerly swell.
In the far NW waters, a cold front extends from 30N137W TO
25N140W. Currently, fresh to strong southwest winds are behind
the front with seas to 9 ft. The front is expected to stall and
weaken over the far NW waters on Mon. Seas are forecast to build
to the 8-12 ft range today through Mon, with highest seas
expected in the far NW part of the area.
$$
Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 4 15:24:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 041456
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale-force
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through this
evening. Peak wave heights will remain in the 13 to 14 ft range.
Swell generated by these winds will spread well to the southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to near 10N100W into tonight.
Winds will diminish to fresh to strong Mon afternoon. Mariners
should exercise caution if transiting in this region.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N81W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N98W to 03N125W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate
convection are from 02N to 05N between 100W and 108W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.
The pressure gradient between a ridge west of Baja California
and lower pressure over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to locally
strong NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters,
with the strongest winds being within 120 nm off the coast mainly
N of Punta Eugenia. These conditions are forecast to prevail into
Wed while moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected over
Baja California Sur offshores. Seas will be in the 4 to 7 ft
range.
Gentle NW winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California with
seas to 3 ft. Winds are forecast to shift to moderate SE winds
Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted with wave heights
generally in the 5 to 6 ft range in mixed southwest and
northwest swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong to near gale force east-northeast winds are in the Gulf
of Papagayo region with wave heights to 10 ft in a mix of
northeast and southwest swell. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
are in and downwind of the Gulf of Panama with seas to 8 ft.
Light to gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across
the region.
Strong offshore northeast gap winds will continue across in
Papagayo region into Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds in the
Gulf of Panama will diminish tonight. Large seas will continue
west of Central America, from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala,
from swell generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo source areas
into Monday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high near 33N126W and
lower pressures in the tropics is supporting fresh northeast to
east trade winds from 05N to 15N west of 115W. Wave heights
within this area are around 8 ft in mixed north to northwest and
southerly swell.
In the far NW waters, a cold front extends from 30N135W TO
25N140W. Currently, fresh to strong southwest winds are behind
the front with seas to 10 ft. The front is expected to stall and
weaken over the far NW waters Mon. Seas are forecast to build to
the 8-12 ft range today through Mon, with highest seas expected
in the far NW part of the area.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Apr 5 15:28:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 051542
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W
to 05N94W. The ITCZ begins near 05N98W to 03N124W to 03N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to
09N between 77W to 92W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N
to 08N between 99W to 110W and from 02N to 08N between 120W to
140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A nearly stationary ridge sits west of Baja California and lower
pressure is currently over the SW CONUS. The pressure gradient
from this pattern will continue to support fresh to locally
strong NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters.
The strongest winds are expected within 120 nm off the coast
mainly N of Punta Eugenia. These conditions are forecast to
prevail through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are
expected over Baja California Sur offshores from Wed into the
weekend. Seas over the Baja California adjacent waters will
range between 5 to 7 ft, with the highest seas over the northern
peninsula offshores.
Light winds prevail across the Gulf of California. These winds
will increase moderate to fresh briefly in the southern Gulf of
California by Tue and diminish by Tue night. Light to gentle
winds will continue to prevail the rest of the week. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds are expected to continue through Fri with
seas to 6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest swell.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong northerly winds continue
across the region with seas up to 10 ft. These winds are expected
to diminish by Tue early afternoon and seas to subside. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail through the rest of the week with
3-4 ft seas.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong east-northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will
continue through tonight with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh
winds will then continue to pulse Tue night and end by Wed
morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail the rest of the
week. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are expected
across the rest of the region.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Surface ridging dominates the open forecast waters N of 17N W of
116W. Over the far NW forecast waters, moderate to fresh NW to W
winds with seas to 11 ft are near a cold front west of 140W. The
front will continue to weaken today before dissipating tonight.
NW swell associated with the front will continue to support seas
to 9 ft over the far NW waters through Tue before subsiding by
Tue afternoon.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge to the north
and the ITCZ will continue to support moderate to fresh trades
from 05N to 20N W of 120W through tonight. Seas in this region
will build to 8 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Quiescent conditions
can be expected from Tue through the rest of the week across this
area.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Apr 6 15:25:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 061524
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 07N89W to 04N93W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 05N111W to 03N125W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N
to 07N E of 87W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 02N
to 07N between 117W and 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of
California is supporting fresh to strong winds west of Baja
California Norte and moderate to fresh winds off Baja California
Sur. Moderate to locally fresh winds are funneling into the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 5-8 ft range off the coast of Baja California, and 4-5 ft
over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the
1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through early in the afternoon. Moderate to fresh SW
to W winds are forecast over the Oaxaca adjacent waters Fri and
Sat. Fresh to locally strong NW winds will prevail over the Baja
California Norte offshore waters through Sat. NW swell will move
into the waters off Baja California Norte Sat, with seas building
to 10-11 ft by Sat night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the Gulf
of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft,
prevail over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds, and seas
of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region
will diminish to moderate to fresh today and below moderate
speeds on Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in and downstream
of the Gulf of Panama will continue through early this evening
before diminishing. Light to gentle winds will prevail across the
remainder of the region through the forecast period.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge of high pressure prevails over the northern waters east
of 130W. A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N130W to
21N140W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the forecast
waters, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing north of the
ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are
also noted N of 20N between 115W and 125W. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the waters N
of 20N and west of 130W in subsiding NW swell. Seas of 5-7 ft
prevail elsewhere.
A weak pressure gradient will continue over the area through the
end of the week with little change in winds expected. High
pressure will start to build over the northern waters later this
week, strengthening tradewinds north of the ITCZ to near 15N and
west of 130W Fri into Sat. The NW swell will subside below 8 ft
today. Northerly swell will enter to northern forecast waters
E of 125W Fri. Seas over this area will build to near 11 ft by
Sat night.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Apr 8 16:25:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 082044
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 07N95W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N95W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N east of 87W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between
113W and 117W, and from 04N to 07N between 135W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico
is supporting fresh to locally strong winds off Baja California
Norte and gentle to moderate winds off Baja California Sur. Light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range
west of Baja California, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the open
waters off Mexico, and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail west of Baja California
Norte through Sun. NW swell will increase seas off Baja
California Norte Fri through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere through Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area. Seas are
in the 3-5 ft range. Little change in conditions are expected
through Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails across the northern waters east of 135W
with surface troughing west of 135W. There is a weak pressure
gradient over the forecast waters. Moderate to locally fresh
winds prevail north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 115W.
Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail north of 20N. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. Little
significant change is expected the next couple of days. A weak
pressure gradient will continue through Sat with gentle to
moderate trade winds expected. High pressure will build modestly
over the northern waters Sat through Mon, and slightly strengthen
trade winds north of the ITCZ. Northerly swell will propagate
south of 30N east of 125W by late Fri. Seas over this area will
build to around 10-11 ft Sat night and Sun.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 10 09:34:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 100904
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N75W to 06N80W to 08N99W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N99W to 06N131W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N
between 81W and 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 106W and 140W.
Scattered light to moderate convection is noted from 22.5N to 29N
between 137W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California,
and extends southeast to offshore of Cabo Corrientes along 110W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico
is supporting fresh northerly winds off of Baja California to
the north of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate winds off Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle westerly winds prevail elsewhere
across the offshore waters. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range west of
Baja California, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off
Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
Fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte through
Sun as the ridge persists. NW swell has begun to increase seas
off Baja California Norte tonight, and will prevail through Tue,
peaking at 7-10 ft Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere through Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle mostly onshore winds prevail across the forecast
area. Seas remain in the 3-5 ft range. Little change in wind and
wave conditions are expected through Tue. However, numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue N of 04N and E
of 90W today.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough associated with a deep area of low pressure
located just W of the NW waters, extends nearly N to S along
140W. Scattered light to moderate convection is seen along and
east of this trough from 22.5N to 29N between 137W and 140W.
High pressure prevails across the northern waters east of this
trough. There is a modest pressure gradient over the forecast
waters south of the ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 120W. Seas
over this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail north of 20N. Moderate
winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere west of 120W. Little
significant change is expected the next couple of days. High
pressure will build modestly over the northern waters Sat through
Mon, and slightly strengthen trade winds north of the ITCZ.
Northerly swell will propagate south of 30N across the waters east
of 125W tonight through the weekend. Seas over this area will
build to around 9-11 ft Sat night and Sun.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 10 17:23:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 101953
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1945 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N98W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N98W to 05N122W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 80W and 89W and
from 06N to 08N between 109W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California,
and extends southeast to offshore of Cabo Corrientes along 110W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico
is supporting fresh northerly winds off of Baja California to
the north of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate winds off Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle westerly winds prevail elsewhere
across the offshore waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range west of
Baja California, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
Fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte into
Sun night as the ridge persists, with some locally strong winds
possible. Increased NW swell off Baja California Norte will
prevail into Tue night, peaking at 7-10 ft tonight. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere into Tue night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle mostly onshore winds prevail across the forecast
area. Seas remain in the 3-5 ft range. Little change in wind and
wave conditions are expected into Tue night. However, numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue N of 04N and E
of 90W into this evening.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak surface trough associated with a deep area of low
pressure located just W of the NW waters, extends nearly N to S
along 140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and east
of this trough from 24N to 30N between 136W and 140W. High
pressure prevails across the northern waters east of this trough.
There is a modest pressure gradient over the forecast waters
south of the ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail north
of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 120W. Seas over this area
are in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail elsewhere west of 120W. Little significant change is
expected the next couple of days. High pressure will build
over the northern waters through Mon, and slightly strengthen
trade winds north of the ITCZ. Northerly swell will propagate
south of 30N across the waters east of 125W into the start of
next week. Seas over this area will build to around 9-11 ft
tonight and Sun.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 11 17:06:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 112034
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 10N79W to 07N101W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N104W to 05N127W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of ITCZ between
129W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California,
and extends southeast to offshore of Cabo Corrientes along 110W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico
is supporting fresh northerly winds off of Baja California to
the north of Punta Abreojos, and moderate winds off Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle westerly winds prevail elsewhere
across the offshore waters. Seas are in the 6-10 ft range west
of Baja California, 3-6 ft over the remainder of the open waters
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California
Norte into Mon as the ridge persists. Increased NW swell off
Baja California Norte will prevail into Wed, peaking at 8-11 ft
tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere into
Wed. Winds and seas are expected to diminish slightly areawide
Mon through Wed as the high pressure weakens.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle mostly onshore winds prevail across the forecast
area, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Little change in wind and
wave conditions are expected into Tue, before moderate offshore
gap winds begin across the Papagayo region.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak surface trough associated with a deep area of low
pressure located just W of the NW waters continues nearly N to S
along 143W. Moderate SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail
across the far NW waters E of the trough and N of 30N. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along and east of this trough from
23N to 29N between 135W and 140W. High pressure extends
southward across the northern waters between this trough and
110W. This is producing a modest pressure gradient over the
forecast waters south of the ridge. Moderate winds and seas of
5-8 ft prevail elsewhere. Little significant change is expected
the next couple of days. High pressure will build over the
northern waters through Tue, and slightly strengthen trade winds
north of the ITCZ. Northerly swell will propagate south of 30N
across the waters between 118W and 130W through Wed. Seas over
this area will build to around 9-11 ft tonight then gradually
diminish to 8-9 ft by Tue.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Apr 13 15:34:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 131439
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 06N91W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N91W to 06N116W to 03N122W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
84W and 99W and from 03N to 06N between 116W and 130W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N W
of 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of Baja
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of
California is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly winds
off of Baja California Norte, and moderate winds off Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle westerly winds prevail elsewhere
across the open offshore waters, with gentle to moderate
southerly winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 6-10
ft range west of Baja California Norte, 4-7 ft off Baja
California Sur, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off
Mexico, and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
Moderate NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte
through through the week as the ridge persists. NW swell off
Baja California Norte, currently peaking around 10 ft, will
prevail into late Wed, with the highest seas across the outer
waters. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere into Wed.
Winds and seas are expected to diminish slightly areawide Thu
through Fri as the high pressure weakens.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, with
seas in the 3-5 ft range. Little change in wind conditions are
expected through into Thu, except for moderate offshore gap
winds across the Papagayo region. Moderate sized SW swell has
will move through the offshore waters through Fri, raising seas
slightly.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure ridging prevails across the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
waters N of 21N between 118W and 130W. Seas in the 5-6 ft range
prevail elsewhere. No significant change is expected the next
couple of days. High pressure will sink southward to along 30N
late Thu through Fri. This will tighten the pressure gradient
and freshen winds north of the ITCZ Fri night into the weekend.
Northerly swell will continue to propagate south of 30N across
the waters between 118W and 130W through Thu.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Apr 14 13:06:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 141520
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 08N75W to 06N80W to 08N93W to 07N98W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 08N120W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N
between 77W and 95W, including the coast of Colombia. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to
08N between 89W and 105W, from 03N to 08N between 110W and 120W,
and within about 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 120W
and 137W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting
moderate northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula.
Gentle to moderate northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere
across the open offshore waters south of Baja. Mainly light to
gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf of California over the
next several days, with the exception of gentle to moderate
southerly winds over the northern part of the Gulf today and
tonight. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range west of Baja California
Norte, 5-7 ft off Baja California Sur, 4-6 ft over the remainder
of the open waters off Mexico, and 3-4 ft over the northern Gulf
of California.
Moderate NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte
through the week, becoming fresh near the coast each late
afternoon, as the ridge persists. NW swell off Baja California
Norte will slowly subside to 5-6 ft by Thu night. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through late Thu. Winds
will increase slightly Fri and Sat as the high pressure shifts
southward to near 31N.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, except
for fresh to locally strong offshore gaps winds across the
Papagayo region. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Little change in
wind conditions are expected through through Fri. Moderate SW
swell moving into the regional waters will dominate the offshore
waters through Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure across the NE Pacific extends southward along 135W
into the northern forecast waters and then southeastward to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting moderate NE-E winds north of the ITCZ to 20N
and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the waters N of 28N between
120W and 127W, and 7-8 ft elsewhere N of 20N. Seas in the 6-7 ft
range prevail across the tradewind belt south of 15N. No
significant change is expected through early Thu. High pressure
will sink southward to along 31N late Thu through Fri. This will
tighten the pressure gradient and freshen winds north of the ITCZ
Fri into the weekend. Northerly swell will gradually subside to
less than 8 ft across the NE waters waters later today.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 16 17:29:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 162206
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 07N114W. Today marks
the reintroduction of the monsoon trough to the surface analysis,
due to the persistent SW winds equatorward of the trough line.
The ITCZ continues from 07N114W to 07N127W, then continues west
of a surface trough from 06N133W to beyond 05N140W. A surface
trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and extends from 09N128W to
04N131W. Scattered moderate, isolated strong convection is from
04N to 10N east of 87W and from 05N to 10N between 96W and 117W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak 1023 mb high centered 29N130W is contributing moderate to
fresh NW winds west of Baja California through Sun morning
before the winds further diminish through at least Wed night. A
moderate to strong gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
may occur starting on Wed. Seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
should remain 5 to 6 ft through Tue night, then increase to 6 to
8 ft Wed. Seas elsewhere will generally remain 4 to 6 ft over
the offshore waters and less than 3 ft over the Gulf of
California. No significant long-period swell is expected over the
Mexican offshores through at least Wed night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds should remain moderate or weaker across the Central
American and equatorial waters for the next several days. Seas
should generally remain 5 to 7 ft. An enhanced long-period SW
swell may enter the equatorial waters beginning on Tue, pushing
the seas to 8 to 9 ft. The reintroduction of the monsoon trough is
responsible for the widespread shower activity and strong
thunderstorms possible east of 95W through Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high near 28N130W
and lower pressures over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is contributing
toward light to moderate and locally fresh NE trades. Seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft across the High Seas waters. As the high
builds on Sun through Tue, the NE trades will increase to fresh
to strong and and seas rise to 8 to 9 ft west of 130W. An
enhanced SW swell may enter the equatorial waters beginning on
Tue, pushing the seas to 8 to 9 ft. At the same time an enhanced
NW swell may enter the northernmost waters west of the Baja
California waters, likewise boosting seas to 8 to 9 ft.
$$
Landsea
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 17 09:59:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 170920
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N95W to 07N102W to
07N109W. The ITCZ continues from 07N109W to 05N120W to 05N128W
to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 10N between 84W and 107W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak 1023 mb high is centered near 30N129W. A surface trough
is analyzed along the Baja California peninsula from 32N115.5W
to 24N110W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW winds
near the coast of Baja California. Winds are gentle to moderate
over the remainder of the area, including the Gulf of California.
Seas are estimated to be 5 to 6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of
California.
Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue west of Baja California
through Sun morning. A moderate gap wind event over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec may occur on Wed. Seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
should remain 5 to 6 ft through Tue night, then increase to 6 to
8 ft Wed. Seas elsewhere will generally remain 4 to 6 ft over the
offshore waters and less than 3 ft in the Gulf of California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the
forecast waters. Little change is expected through Mon night.
Enhanced long-period SW swell may enter the equatorial waters on
Tue. Widespread shower activity and strong thunderstorms are
possible east of 95W through Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high near 30N129W and
lower pressures across the ITCZ/monsoon trough region supports
gentle to moderate and locally fresh NE trade winds. Seas are 5
to 7 ft across the region. High pressure building north of 30N
Sun through Tue will produce fresh to strong trade winds and 7
to 9 ft seas west of 130W. An enhanced SW swell may enter the
equatorial waters beginning on Tue, raising seas to 8 to 9 ft.
At the same time enhanced NW swell may enter the northern waters
west of the Baja California, boosting seas there to 8 to 9 ft.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 17 17:31:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 172121
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 06N90W to 07N108W.
The ITCZ axis begins near 07N108W and continues along to 07N120W
to 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from
02N to 10N E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 11N between 100W AND 121W, and from 02N to 07N between 125W
and 137W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between surface high pressure anchored by a
1025 mb high near 31N130W and lower pressure along western
Mexico and the Gulf of California continue to support moderate to
locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore
waters with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range. These conditions will
prevail through Sun morning when NW winds will diminish to gentle
to moderate. Gentle to moderate NW winds will then continue through
the middle of the week with seas increasing to 8 ft N of Punta
Eugenia by Thu.
Light to gentle variable winds are forecast in the Gulf of
California through mid-week, except for moderate to locally fresh
NW winds N of 27N expected Sun morning through early Mon. Seas
will be in the 1 to 3 ft range. Winds are gentle to moderate
over the remainder of the area with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range.
A moderate gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur
on Wed. Seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec should remain 5 to 6
ft through Tue night, then increase to 6 to 8 ft Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail across the
forecast waters through mid-week. Enhanced long-period SW swell
is forecast to enter the equatorial waters on Sun evening and
reach the Central America offshores Mon, continuing to affect the
region through the middle of the week. Seas to 8 ft are forecast
over the Equatorial offshores during that period. Otherwise,
widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms are affecting the
Central America and Colombia offshores associated with the
monsoon trough. This precipitation activity is forecast to
continue through Sun evening.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high near 31N130W and
lower pressures across the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh NE to
E winds between the ITCZ and 20N W of 125W with seas to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with seas to 7 ft are
elsewhere between the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N between 110W and
125W. The high pressure will continue to build Sun through early
next week, supporting fresh to locally strong winds through Tue
mainly W of 130W. Seas are expected to build up to 10 ft,
enhanced by mixed SW and NW swell.
$$
Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 18 07:29:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 180916
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N83W to 09N97W to 06N117W. The ITCZ continues from 06N117W to
04N132W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along and near the monsoon trough from 03N to
14N between 77W to 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the ITCZ from 02N to 07N between 121W to 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface high pressure is anchored by a 1026 mb high near
31N131W and lower pressure continues along western Mexico and
the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these two
features will support moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja
California offshore waters with seas 5 to 7 ft. These conditions
will prevail through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate NW winds
will then continue through the middle of the week. Seas will
increase to 8 ft NW of Punta Eugenia by Wed.
Winds are expected to increase to fresh along the northern Gulf
of California, N of 27N, this morning and will continue through
this evening. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail through
Wed. A cold front will push south across the Gulf of California
on Wed which will bring fresh to locally strong winds in the
northern Gulf of California Wed into Thu with seas building to 4
to 5 ft. Conditions will improve by Thu night.
Fresh winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night
with seas building to 5 to 6 ft. By Wed night, winds will
increase to fresh to strong with seas reaching 8 ft. Conditions
are expected to improve by Thu morning with gentle to moderate
winds prevailing the rest of the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of
Papagayo on Wed night through Fri night. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft,
building to 8 ft by Thu night. Across the rest of the area,
light to gentle winds will prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas through
midweek. Enhanced long-period SW swell is forecast to reach the
Equatorial offshores today with seas increasing to 8 ft by
midweek. The swell will reach the Central America offshores by
Mon. Meanwhile, widespread convection will increase in coverage
today which will impact the Central America and Colombia
offshores. Coverage of the convective activity is expected to
decrease by Sun night but still continue into Mon.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high near 31N131W and
lower pressures across the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh NE to
E winds between the ITCZ and 20N, W of 120W with seas to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with seas to 7 ft are
elsewhere between the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N between 110W and
125W. The high pressure will continue to build Sun through early
next week, supporting fresh to locally strong winds through Tue
mainly W of 125W. Seas are expected to build up to 10 ft,
enhanced by mixed SW and NW swell.
$$
AReinhart
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 18 17:15:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 182203
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N100W to 06N117W.
The ITCZ axis extends from 06N117W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 13N E of 95W and within 210 nm N of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ W of 95W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface high pressure is anchored by a 1028 mb high near
31N134W and lower pressure continues along western Mexico and
the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these two
features continue to support moderate to locally fresh NW winds
across the Baja California offshore waters this afternoon with
seas to 6 ft. Winds are expected to decrease to gentle to
moderate NW winds early on Mon and then remain at that speed
through the middle of the week. Seas will increase briefly to 8
ft NW of Punta Eugenia by early Wed as the tail of a cold front
moves across the northern Baja peninsula.
Fresh to locally strong NW winds are along the northern Gulf of
California, N of 27N, and will continue through early this evening.
Light to gentle variable winds will then prevail through Tue.
Winds in the northern gulf are forecast to shift S to SW and
increase to fresh to strong again Tue afternoon ahead of a cold
front that will push south across the Gulf of California on Wed.
These strong winds will then continue through Thu with seas
building to 5 ft.
Fresh winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into
Mon with seas building to 6 ft. A second weak gap wind event is
forecast to begin Wed and continue through Thu morning with seas
building to 8 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of
Papagayo on Wed night through Fri night. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft,
building to 8 ft by Thu night. Across the rest of the area,
light to gentle variable winds will prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas
through midweek. Long-period SW swell reaching the Equatorial
offshores this afternoon will support building seas to 8 ft by
midweek. The swell will reach the Central America offshores by
Mon. Otherwise, widespread convection will continue to impact
the Central America, Colombia and Galapagos Islands offshores
through Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high near 31N134W and
lower pressures across the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 22N, W of 130W with seas to 8
ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with seas to 7 ft are
elsewhere between the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N between 120W
and 130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure along the Gulf of California is also supporting moderate
to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N between 120W and 140W, except
over the far NW forecast waters where light to gentle variable
winds dominate as shown by latest scatterometer data.
The high pressure will continue to build through early next
week, supporting fresh to locally strong winds through Tue mainly
W of 125W. Seas in this region are expected to build up to 10
ft, enhanced by mixed SW and NW swell.
$$
Ramos
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Apr 19 17:05:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 192053
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 07N100W to 06N110W. The ITCZ axis extends from there to
04N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
09N between 92W and 99W and from 05N to 08N between 122W and
135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF
MEXICO...
A strong 1034 mb subtropical high is centered northwest of the
area near 38N138W. The modest pressure gradient between this
high and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to
locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters
with seas up to 6 ft. Although winds are expected to change
little this week, seas will likely increase a little NW of Punta
Eugenia in N swell by midweek.
Across the Gulf of California, winds and seas are currently
light. A cold front is expected to push southward across the
northern Gulf on Wed. Ahead of the front, winds in the northern
Gulf are forecast to shift to S to SW and increase to fresh to
strong by Tue evening. These strong winds are forecast to continue
through Thu with seas building to 5 ft.
Fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have
diminished, but they could pulse again occassionally at night
late this week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds are generally light across the area, and are expected to
remain that way during the next couple of days. Large cross-
equatorial southerly to southwesterly swell will continue to
affect the area during the next several days, keeping seas
elevated to 4 to 6 ft through mid-week despite the light winds.
Winds are expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo by
Thursday as high pressure strengthens to the north of the region.
The combination of the increasing winds and southerly swell will
likely increase seas to 8 ft across portions of the area toward
the end of the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high north of the area
and lower pressures across the ITCZ supports fresh to locally
strong NE to E trade winds between 15N and 25W west of about
125W. Seas are up to 8 ft across that region. The high pressure
system is expected to weaken later this week as a cold front
moves across the Gulf of California. This pattern change should
cause the trades to weaken by midweek. Seas are expected to
remain elevated though since large cross-equatorial southerly to
southwesterly swell is expected to continue east of about 130W
through the week.
$$
Cangialosi
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Apr 20 15:40:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 201601
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
06N90W to 06N107W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N107W to 05N130W
to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 02N
to 05N between 80W and 86W, from 05N to 09N between 107W and
118W, and from 05N to 07N between 120W and 132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A strong 1035 mb high pressure is centered northwest of the
forecast area. The pressure gradient between this high and lower
pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW
winds across the Baja California offshore waters with seas up to
6 ft. These winds are expected to change little this week. Seas
will increase to 7 to 8 ft in N swell NW of Punta Eugenia by Wed.
This swell event will persist on Thu with seas to 8 ft near
30N120W.
Gulf of California: A cold front is expected to push southward
across the northern Gulf on Wed. Ahead of the front, winds in the
northern Gulf are forecast to shift to S to SW and increase to
fresh to strong by this evening. These strong winds are forecast
to continue through Thu.
Gulf of Tehunatepec: Fresh to strong winds are expected to return
to the Gulf region tonight as a weak low pressure remains over
the SW Gulf of Mexico. These winds will persist through Thu morning.
Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf to near 13N96W by
Thu morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds will develop across the Gulf of Papagayo on
Wed evening and continue through early Fri morning. Seas will
build to 8 to 9 ft by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
continue to prevail from Fri afternoon through the weekend with
seas 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are generally light across the
area and will remain that way over the next few days.
Large and long period cross-equatorial southerly swell will build
seas to 8 ft just S of the Galapagos Islands by Wed morning, and
across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by
Wed evening. These marine conditions will persist on Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high pressure center
located north of the area and lower pressures across the ITCZ
supports fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds from 21N to
28N W of 128W. Seas are up to 8 to 9 ft across that region. The
high pressure system is expected to weaken later this week as a
cold front moves across the Gulf of California. This pattern
change should cause the trades to weaken by Wed with moderate to
locally fresh winds prevailing the rest of the week. Seas are
expected to remain elevated since large cross-equatorial
southerly swell is forecast to continue east of about 130W
through the week.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Apr 21 15:28:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 211550
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 08N90W to 09N105W to 06N115W. The ITCZ axis
continues from 06N115W to 04N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection can be found from 03N-07N E 80W, from
02N-05N between 85W-89W, from 04N-10N between 110W- 115W, and from
04N-08N W of 125W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends into the offshore waters west of Baja California,
producing moderate NW to N winds across the area. Seas are 5 to
6 ft across most of the forecast region, except 6-7 ft north of
Punta Eugenia. NW swell will impact the waters N of Punta Eugenia
today, with seas building to 8 ft through Thu.
Gulf of California: A weak cold front will push southward across
the northern part of the Gulf later today. Fresh to strong S-SW
winds are expected ahead of the front through tonight, with seas
building to 5-7 ft in the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are expected over the northern Gulf Thu and Thu
night, with gentle to moderate southerly winds elsewhere.
Gulf of Tehunatepec: A weak low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico
and its associated cold front will support a northerly gap wind
event across the Tehuantepec region through Thu morning. Winds of
20 to 30 kt are expected, with seas building to 11 ft downstream
of the Gulf tonight.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure building over the NW Caribbean will support fresh
to strong winds across the Papagayo area this evening through Fri
morning, with associated seas building to 8-9 ft by Thu. Light
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Large, long
period cross-equatorial southerly swell will build seas to 8-9 ft
across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
through Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure well north of
the forecast area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the
ITCZ supports an large area of moderate to fresh trade winds
from 08N to 30N W of 125W based on latest scatterometer data.
Seas are 7 to 8 ft across this region. High pressure will gradually
weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a cold front approaches
from the west. Northerly swell will propagate across the waters
north of 28N between 120W and 132W through Thu night, and
increase seas in the northern waters to 8-9 ft. Seas will subside
to less than 8 ft Thu night and Fri.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Apr 22 15:35:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 221551
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 low pressure located over
northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N95W to 09N107W to 08N111W.
The ITCZ axis continues from 08N111W to 06N130W to 05N140W. A
surface trough is within the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and extends from
13N109W to 04N113W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted near the surface trough axis from 04N to 13N between
108W and 120W, and from 04N to 10N between 120W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California,
producing moderate NW to N winds across the area. Seas are 5 to
7 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro and 4 to 6 ft elsewhwere. Long period
southerly swell is now reaching the waters W of Baja California
to build seas to 6-7 ft across most of the region.
Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
will prevail across the Gulf rest of the week.
Gulf of Tehunatepec: Winds have diminished across the Tehuantepec
region as the gap forcing across the area weakens considerably.
Fresh northerly winds will persist today. Downwind seas around
7-10 ft today will spread far offshore and subside to 6-8 ft by
tonight.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure building over the NW Caribbean will support fresh
to strong winds across the Papagayo area through Fri morning,
with associated seas building to 8-9 ft. Light to gentle winds
will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Large, long period cross-
equatorial southerly swell will continue to build seas to 8 ft
across the waters between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands through
tonight.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The gradient between high pressure well north of the forecast
area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports a
large area of moderate trade winds from 08N to 30N west of 128W
based on scatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this
region. High pressure will gradually weaken today as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Northerly swell across the
waters north of 29N between 120W and 128W will subside to less
than 8 ft tonight and Fri.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 23 17:01:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 232100
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1010 mb low pressure
near 07N94W to 08N110W to 06N115W. ITCZ continues from 06N115W
to west of 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 98W and 106W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N
between 115W and 120W, and from 06N to 09N between 130W and
135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from high pressure northwest of the region to
between Los Cabos and the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent
scatterometer satellite data and ship observations indicate
moderate to fresh northerly winds off Baja California. Concurrent
altimeter satellite data showed 5 to 8 ft seas off Baja
California. This is largely due to a mix of NW and S swell. Light
to gentle breezes and slight seas persist in the Gulf of
California. Farther south off southern Mexico, gentle breezes
persist with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell.
For the forecast, the winds off Baja California will diminish
into Sat as the high pressure west of the area weakens.
Meanwhile, long period southerly swell will maintain seas of 5-7
ft in open waters through Sat night before subsiding. A trough
will move across Baja California Mon and Tue, followed by
moderate to fresh NW winds.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Recent ship observations and scatterometer satellite data
indicated moderate to fresh E gap winds emerging out of the Gulf
of Papagayo and reaching as far west as 90W. Gentle to moderate
winds persist elsewhere. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft off Nicaragua,
El Salvador and Guatemala, in part due to the gap wind flow but
also a component of longer-period SW swell. This swell is
impacting the offshore areas farther south as well, where seas
are mostly 4 to 6 ft. Meanwhile, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident off Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.
For the forecast, the fresh gap winds will pulse mainly overnight
across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun, then becoming fresh to strong
early next week. The long period cross- equatorial southerly
swell will subside through Sat night. Another smaller swell group
will move into the region by mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure located
north of the forecast area and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ supports a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade
winds from 08N to 20N west of 125W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
this region. High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front, and will dominate the forecast
waters during the upcoming weekend into early next week.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 24 08:52:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 240841
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N110W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N110W to 04.5N123W to 05N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N
between 93W and 120W, and from 05N to 10N between 130W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range primarily in SW swell over the
open waters, with seas in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of
California.
For the forecast, the winds off Baja California will diminish
today as high pressure west of the area weakens. Long period
southerly swell will maintain seas of 5-7 ft over the open
waters through tonight before subsiding. A trough will move
across Baja California Mon and Tue, followed by moderate to fresh
NW winds.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over and downstream of the Gulf
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6 to 7 ft range over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo,
and 5-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse mainly overnight
across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, then becoming fresh to
strong early next week. Long period cross- equatorial southerly
swell will subside through tonight. Another smaller swell will
move into the region by mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the
northern waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
supports a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade winds
north of the ITCZ to 23N west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
this region. The ridging over the northern waters will weaken,
with areal coverage of moderate to fresh winds diminishing
through the weekend into early next week.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Apr 24 18:56:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 242022
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N85W to 08N115W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N115W to 05N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 100W and 115W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Recent ship observations and scatterometer satellite passes
indicated moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California are
diminishing. These winds have been active between a ridge west of
the area, and lower pressure over north central Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds are evident elsewhere over Mexican offshore
waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft primarily in southerly swell in open
waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Areas of smoke
from agricultural and forest fires are evident along the coast
between Huatulco and Zihuatanejo.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will pulse
into the northern Gulf of California Sun night, ahead of a trough
moving through the region. High pressure will build west of the
region in the wake of the trough, supporting fresh winds off Baja
California by mid week. Farther south, southerly swell impacting
the waters south of 20N will subside through late Sun. Another
group of southerly swell will arrive by mid week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over and downstream of the Gulf
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6 to 7 ft range over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo,
and 5-6 ft elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
off western Panama, beyond 180 nm.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist through
Sun, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap winds
will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon and
Tue. Additional southerly swell will move into the region by mid
week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the
northern waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
supports a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade winds
north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 130W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
this region. The ridging over the northern waters will weaken as
a dying cold front moves across the waters north of 25N into Mon.
This will allow the areal coverage of moderate to fresh trade winds
to diminish into early next week.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 25 07:14:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 250842
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N85W to 07N105W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N105W to 05N121W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 14N between
104W and 117W, and from 04N to 10N between 117W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low
pressure over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds west
of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will pulse
into the northern Gulf of California tonight, ahead of a trough
moving through the region. High pressure will build west of the
region in the wake of the trough, supporting fresh winds off Baja
California by mid week. Farther south, southerly swell impacting
the waters south of 20N will subside through late today. Another
set of southerly swell will arrive by mid week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo as
well as the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds persist
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will persist today, with
subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse
mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon and Tue.
Additional southerly swell will move into the region by mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the
northern waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
supports a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade winds
north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 125W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
this region. The ridging over the northern waters will weaken
slightly into Mon. This will allow the areal coverage of
moderate to fresh trade winds to diminish into early next week.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Apr 25 18:20:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 252012
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N110W to 06N125W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N125W to 04N130W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is active from 04N to 06N between 80W and
85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 06N to 08N between 105W and 108W, from 10N to 13N
between 107W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between
120W and 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weakening high pressure over the area is supporting gentle to
moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of
California. Smoke from agricultural and forest fires is covering
the near shore waters from Chiapas to Colima.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will pulse
into the northern Gulf of California tonight, ahead of a trough
moving through the region. High pressure will build west of the
region in the wake of the trough, supporting fresh winds off Baja
California by mid week. Farther south, slight to moderate seas
will build by mid week as a new set of southerly swell arrives.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo
and moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle
winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range with
lingering southerly swell.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across
the region, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap
winds will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight and again Mon night into Tue. Additional southerly swell
will move into the region by mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are currently active along
the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 105W. A few isolated
thunderstorms are active west of Colombia.
A cold front from 30N126W to 27N135W will weaken through Mon as
it moves eastward across the waters north of 25N. Although weak,
the front also weakens the subtropical ridge, and this pattern
will support mostly moderate trades farther south into the
tropics through mid week. Seas will still reach near 8 ft in
mixed swell mainly from 06N to 12N west of 135W through Mon.
Elsewhere modest winds and seas will persist. Looking ahead,
trade winds may increase later in the week over tropical waters
west of 125W as the subtropical ridge builds to the north.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Apr 26 15:46:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 261826 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 26 2021
Corrected Offshore Waters within 250 nm of Central America,
Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador section
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low over
northwestern Colombia to 10N85W to 09N98W to 11N107W to 10N120W
and to 07N128W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 05N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
south of trough between 109W-115W, within 120 nm south of trough
between 98W-101W and within 120 nm north of trough between 118W-
121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-15N
between 108W-115W, within 60 nm south of trough between 123W-126W
and also within 30 nm of ITCZ between 136W- 139W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California
peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range due to a mix of northwest and south swell over
the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of
California.
For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west gap winds
will pulse into the northern Gulf of California today, ahead of a
trough moving through the region. These winds may briefly reach
to near gale force tonight before diminishing to fresh speeds
early Tue. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected over
small areas of the central Gulf of California Tue night, but
should be brief in duration. High pressure will build west of
the region in the wake of the trough, supporting fresh winds off
Baja California by mid-week. Farther south, slight to moderate
seas will build by mid-week as a new set of southerly swell
arrives.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected
Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo
and moderate north winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to
gentle winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range with
lingering southerly swell.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across
the region, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap
winds will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight into Tue morning. Additional southerly swell will move
into the region by mid week.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is offshore the
coast of Colombia from 03N to 07N between 78W-81W.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extending from the extreme northwest corner of
Mexico to across northern Baja California and to 29N120W to
26N127W and to near to 23N138W will weaken today as it moves
eastward across the waters north of 25N. The subtropical ridge
over the northern waters has weakened and loosened the pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ. The pressure gradient will support mostly moderate
trades through mid-week. Seas near 8 ft in mixed swell will
remain mainly from 06N to 12N west of 135W this morning.
Elsewhere modest winds and seas will change little. Looking
ahead, trade winds may increase later in the week over tropical
waters west of 122W as the subtropical ridge builds to the
north.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Apr 27 15:17:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 271603
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N95W to 12N107W
and to 09N120W, where overnight scatterometer indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 07N130W to beyond the area at 05N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 03N to 07N
between 83W-88W, within 180 nm south of trough between 93W-101W,
from 04N to 06N between 101W-106W, within 120 nm north of ITCZ
between 135W-140W and within 60 nm north of ITCZ between 127W-
135W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
trough between 109W-112W. within 60 nm south of trough between
114W-115W and within 60 nm north of ITCZ between 122W-124W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong to near gale force winds are noted over the northern Gulf
of California, with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range in a mix of northwest and south swell
over the open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, strong to near gale SW to W gap winds over the
northern Gulf of California will diminish by early this
afternoon. A small area of strong northwest winds will develop
over the central Gulf of California late tonight and diminish
to mainly fresh winds Wed morning. High pressure will build west
of the region supporting fresh winds off Baja California by mid
week. Farther south, slight to moderate seas will build by mid-
week as a new set of southerly swell arrives.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo
and moderate north winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to
gentle winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in
lingering southerly swell.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across
the region, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap
winds will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight. Additional southerly swell will begin to move propagate
into the region tonight and through early Thu at which time it
will begin to decay. Prior to doing so, the swell will induce
maximum seas of 8 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A dissipating cold front extends from far northwestern Mexico
southwestward to across central Baja California and to 26N120W
and to near 23N126W. Behind it, a trough is analyzed from
near 30N118W to 26N124W. High pressure is present elsewhere
over the area, with a 1021 mb high center analyzed at 31N135W.
A weak pressure gradient remains between the high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. This gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds north of the ITCZ
to near 15N and west of about 124W. Seas over this area are in
the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft
range prevail elsewhere. Slightly stronger high pressure will
build southward into the area through the end of the week, while
at the same a cold front approaches the northwest corner of the
area. Expect for the areal extent of the aforementioned winds to
increase through the week as a surface trough possibly develops
in the central tropical region and tracks westward. If this
trough materializes, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
most likely increase over the central part of the area.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Apr 28 14:57:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 281458
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 08N74W to 10N89W to 07N99W to 10N109W to
08N120W to 05N129W. The ITCZ continues from 05N129W to 03N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
210 nm south of the axis between 84W and 126W, and within 210 nm
north of the axis between 107W and 131W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 86W and 94W, from 01N
to 05N between 78W and 82W, and from 00N to 03N between 95W and
110W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong northwest winds over the central Gulf of California have
diminished early today with moderate to fresh winds there now.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja California
peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in a mix of
northwest and south swell over the open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, high pressure west of the region will support
moderate to fresh winds off Baja California, locally strong in
the central and southern Gulf of California through the end of
the week. A set of northwest swell will build west of Baja
California late in the upcoming weekend. Farther south, slight
to moderate seas will build today as a set of southerly swell
arrives. Additional southerly swell will further build seas
slightly late Fri and Sat over the waters south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region, then subsiding Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo have
diminished to moderate to fresh early this morning, with
moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to
moderate winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in
lingering southerly swell, except 5-8 ft offshore of Ecuador.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across
the region, with subsiding southerly swell. Southerly swell will
gradually subside through the end of the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 36N128W. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate winds north of
the ITCZ, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds
and seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. High pressure
will continue north of the area with these general conditions
prevailing into the upcoming weekend. A set of northwest swell
with building seas will propagate south of 30N between 120W and
130W late in the weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Apr 29 14:32:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 291417
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1410 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
10N107W to 09N115W. The ITCZ continues from 09N115W to 04N130W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 09N between 93W and 106W, and from 02N to 14N
between 107W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 12N between 83W and 91W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this are of high
pressure and low pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to
locally fresh winds off the Baja California peninsula as well as
over much of the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range in a mix of northwest and south swell over the
open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, high pressure west of the region will support
moderate to fresh winds off Baja California, locally strong in
the central and southern Gulf of California through the end of
the week. A set of northwest swell will build west of Baja
California late in the upcoming weekend into early next week.
Farther south, seas will build as a set of southerly swell
propagates across the area. Additional southerly swell will
further build seas slightly late Fri and Sat over the waters
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, then subsiding Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate winds are noted in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle
winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in
lingering southerly swell, except 5-8 ft offshore of Ecuador.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will persist across the
region, with subsiding southerly swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure is centered north of the area with a ridge axis
extending from 32N131W southeast to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
mainly moderate winds north of the ITCZ, with seas in the 4-7 ft
range, locally to 8 ft near 12N114W. Light to gentle winds and
seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere.
High pressure will continue north of the area with these general
conditions prevailing into the upcoming weekend. A set of
northwest swell with building seas will propagate south of 30N
between 120W and 130W late in the weekend into early next week.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Apr 30 17:40:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 302137
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1012 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 09N73W to 09N90W to 11N110W to 06N124W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N124W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between
77W and 98W, from 11N to 14N between 103W and 112W, and from 04N
to 10N between 110W and 119W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60-120 nm south of the ITCZ between
120W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered near
34N130W is west of the Baja California peninsula. The gradient
between the ridge and low pressures over Mexico is supporting
moderate winds near the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the waters off Mexico. Seas
are in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of northwest and south swell
over the open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
west of Baja California tonight through Sat night, becoming
fresh to occasionally strong on Sun. Fresh to strong winds will
filter through Baja California passages across the northern and
central Gulf of California Sun night. Large NW swell will build
west of Baja California Sun and Mon. More tranquil marine
conditions are expected across the region Tue and Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across the region, except moderate
offshore of Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in lingering
southerly swell.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue across the
region through Sun night, with southerly winds increasing south
of the monsoon trough axis early next week. Moderate southerly
swell will gradually decay through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered near
34N130W dominates the forecast waters. The gradient between the
high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ, and seas in
the 5-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-7 ft
range prevail elsewhere.
High pressure will continue north of the area through the
weekend. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly
winds will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W Sun and
Mon. Marine conditions will improve on Tue and Wed.
$$
Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 1 08:05:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 010905
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N82W to 14N105W to
07N123W. The ITCZ continues from 07N123W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 81W and
90W, and from 08N to 13N between 101W and 109W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad ridge associated with high pressure is west of the Baja
California peninsula. The gradient between the ridge and low
pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds
near the Baja California peninsula, and light to gentle winds
elsewhere over the waters off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in a
mix of west and southwest swell over the open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
west of Baja California through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will
filter through Baja California passages into the northern and
central Gulf of California Sun night. Large NW swell will build
west of Baja California Sun and Mon. Tranquil marine conditions
are expected across the region Tue and Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds prevail across
most the region. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in lingering
southerly swell.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the region through Sun. Southerly winds will increase south
of the monsoon trough axis Sun night and Mon.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered north of the
area dominates the forecast waters. The area of high pressure is
bisected by a weak stationary front that extends from 34N135W
through 32N140W to 30N140W. The gradient between the high and
lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds
north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail elsewhere.
High pressure will continue north of the area through the
weekend. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly
winds will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W Sun and
Mon. Marine conditions will improve considerably Tue and Wed.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 1 15:37:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 011517
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near
07N78W to 06N80W to 13N106W to 08N124W. The ITCZ continues from
08N124W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 08N E of 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 101W and 109W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressures over
Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds near the Baja
California peninsula, and light to gentle winds elsewhere over
the waters off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in a mix of west and
southwest swell over the open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
west of Baja California through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will
filter through Baja California passages into the northern and
central Gulf of California Sun evening. Large NW swell will
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia later today, building seas to
8-9 ft on Sun. This swell event will propagate southward covering
much of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Mon. Seas of 8-11 ft
are expected N of Punta Eugenia.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds prevail across
most the region. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in lingering
southerly swell.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the region through Sun. Southerly winds will increase south
of the monsoon trough axis Sun night and Mon.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered north of the
area dominates the forecast waters. The pressure gradient
between the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting
moderate trade winds north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 8 ft seas.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail
elsewhere.
High pressure will continue north of the area through the
weekend. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly
winds will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W Sun and
Mon. Marine conditions will improve considerably Tue and Wed.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 2 07:39:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 020844
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 85W and 88W,
and from 06N to 08N between 92W and 95W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak cold front is moving through southern California and into
Baja California Norte. This follows a surface trough moving
through the Colorado River Valley, and extending southward to the
northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds
likely follow the trough over the northern Gulf, north of 29N,
with 4 to 5 ft seas. Meanwhile moderate to fresh NW winds are
noted off the Baja California coast, with 5 to 7 ft seas,
although seas are up to 8 ft in northerly swell near Guadalupe
Island. Farther south, smoke from agricultural and forest fires
is limiting visibility over the coastal waters of Oaxaca,
Michoacan, and Guerrero. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 5
to 7 ft seas persist in SW swell. A sharp upper trough reaching
from central Mexico to south of the Revillagigedo Islands is
supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon
trough off Chiapas and Oaxaca beyond 90 nm.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will
follow the trough over the northern Gulf of California through
tonight. The front will dissipate through today, but high pressure
building into the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N
winds will prevail west of Baja California through Mon, with
building seas due to NW swell. Farther south, gentle to moderate
winds will persist through mid week, with SW swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicate light to gentle
SW winds prevailing across most the region, except for moderate
SW winds between western Panama and southwest Colombia. Seas are
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range in lingering southerly swell.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along the
monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the region through today. Southerly winds will increase south
of the monsoon trough axis tonight through Tue, then diminish.
SW swell will persist through mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area dominates the waters west of
120W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds from 20N to 25N west of 135W, and 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle
to moderate winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevail
elsewhere.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will spread south of
30N and mainly between 120W and 130W through Tue,then subside
through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into
the waters north of 25N and west of 25W by late Thu, following a
cold front entering the area.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 2 15:08:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 021526
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W
to 05N95W to 06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06N120W to 08N130W
to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can
be found from 05N to 08N between 78W and 80W, from 05N to 08N
between 84W and 90W, and in the Tehuantepec region N of 13.5N
between 92W and 96W. Similar convection is within about 60 nm
offshore El Salvador and Guatemala, and also near the Nicoya
peninsula in Costa Rica.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weakening cold front is moving through southern California and
into Baja California Norte. This follows a surface trough moving
through the Colorado River Valley, and extending southward to
the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong westerly gap
winds likely follow the trough over the northern Gulf, north of
29N, with 4 to 5 ft seas. Meanwhile moderate to fresh NW winds
are noted off the Baja California coast, with 5 to 7 ft seas,
although seas are up to 8 ft in northerly swell near Guadalupe
Island. Farther south, smoke from agricultural and forest fires
is limiting visibility over the coastal waters of Oaxaca,
Guerrero and Michoacan. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 5
to 7 ft seas persist in SW swell. A sharp upper trough reaching
from central Mexico to south of the Revillagigedo Islands is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
Tehuantepec region as previously mentioned.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will
persist over the north and central Gulf of California through
tonight when winds are forecast to increase to 25-30 kt. The
front will dissipate through today, but high pressure building
into the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds west
of Baja California through Mon, with building seas due to NW
swell. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds will persist
through mid week, with SW swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicate light to gentle
SW winds prevailing across most the region. Seas are generally
in the 4 to 6 ft range in lingering southerly swell. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough
off Panama and Costa Rica.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the region through today. Southerly winds will increase south
of the monsoon trough axis tonight through Tue, then diminish.
SW swell will persist through mid week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure north of the area dominates the forecast waters
west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower
pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
locally fresh trade winds from 17N to 23N west of 135W, and 6 to
8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft
range prevail elsewhere.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will spread south of
30N and mainly between 120W and 130W through Tue, then subside
through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into
the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by late Thu, following
a cold front entering the area.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 3 17:42:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 032022
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N88W and then resumes
from 11N110W to 07N116W. The ITCZ continues from 07N116W to
05N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 16N between 93W and 100W and from 04N to 07N east of 92W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The relatively tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
high centered northwest of the area and lower pressure over the
southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico is producing fresh to
strong northwesterly to northerly winds off the northern portion
of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are up to 11 ft in that
area in mixed swell. South of Cabo Corrientes, gentle to moderate
NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are ongoing. An upper-
level and low-level disturbance is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and surrounding areas
generally from 11N to 16N between 93W and 100W. Conditions are
relatively quiet elsewhere.
Looking ahead, the moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja
California will diminish tonight and Tue, although large NW swell
will persist for another day or two. A limited fresh to strong
NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind event may occur on Fri.
Elsewhere, winds throughout the Mexican offshore zones should
remain quiescent into the weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are
generally 4 to 5 ft in lingering southerly swell. A few showers
and thunderstorms are occurring off the coast of Costa Rica and
Panama, primarily associated with the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Thu night through Sat.
Elsewhere, gentle winds are expected for the next several days
over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific offshore zones.
Likewise, no significant long-period swell out of the Southern
Hemisphere is anticipated through at least Sat night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A subtropical high pressure system centered north of the area
continues to supporting mainly moderate trades across the
forecast waters west of about 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N
winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 25N and
east of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds exist elsewhere with 5 to
7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed,
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night,
following a cold front entering the waters north of 25N and west
of 130W.
$$
Cangialosi
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From
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All on Tue May 4 14:39:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 041931
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N81W to 11N103W to 08N119W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N119W to 05N131W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to
11N between 93W and 102W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
W of Baja California, generally moderate NW winds are ongoing
with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Light breezes and slight seas are
evident across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW
breezes prevail off southern Mexico, with 4 to 5 ft seas in
subsiding SW swell.
For the forecast, NW winds are diminishing off Baja California,
but NW swell will persist into Wed morning. Expect moderate NW
winds along with more NW swell off Baja California by the end of
week related to a weak cold front or trough moving into the
region. Looking ahead for southern Mexico, limited fresh to
strong NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind may occur Fri related
to low pressure farther south into the tropical waters. The low
pressure may bring increased winds and seas to the waters off
Oaxaca and Guerrero Fri and this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will persist throughout the Mexican offshore
waters through Sat.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Thu through Sat night.
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will continue for the next
several days over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific
offshore zones. Likewise, no significant long-period swell out of
the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated through the weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A subtropical high pressure system centered north of the area
continues to supporting mainly moderate trades across the
forecast waters west of about 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N
winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 26N and
east of 130W. Seas north of 26N and east of 130W range from 5 to
8 ft, due to northerly swell in the area. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate winds exist elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed SW
and NW swell.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed,
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W late Thu,
following a weakening cold front entering the waters north of
25N and west of 130W.
$$
KONARIK
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From
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All on Wed May 5 14:38:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 051919
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 5 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N99W to 06N125W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N
between 90W and 112W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Light to gentle mainly NW winds dominate this basin. Seas are 4
to 6 ft, except for 2 ft or less in the Gulf of California.
Smokey conditions may be ongoing over the near shore waters off
Guerrero and Michoacan.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate westerly winds will
generally persist into late week offshore Mexico. Fresh to
strong gap winds will develop Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as
low pressure develops farther south, then tracks to the NW well
off the coast of southern Mexico. This pattern may also result in
increased winds and seas beyond 120 nm off the coast of Guerrero
and Michoacan from late Fri through Sun. Farther north, weak
ridging will support gentle to moderate NW winds and subsiding NW
swell through late week. Expect moderate NW winds along with
more NW swell off Baja California by the end of week related to a
weakening trough moving into the region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Fri through Sun. Elsewhere,
light to gentle breezes and moderate swell will continue for the
next several days over the region.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Moderate N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in lingering NW swell are
ongoing north of 26N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere a weak
subtropical ridge north of 20N is maintaining light to gentle
breezes north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, except for moderate
trade winds west of 130W. Moderate southerly winds are noted
south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
For the forecast, winds will increase along with additional
swell across the waters north of 25N starting Fri, accompanying a
weak cold front that dissipates as it moves eastward across the
region. Southerly swell east of 105W will subside into late week.
$$
KONARIK
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From
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All on Fri May 7 12:50:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 071523
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon
trough near 11N101.5W this morning. Scattered moderate to strong
convection has blossomed within 240 nm across the NW semicircle,
while scattered moderate convection is found within 180 nm across
the southwest quadrant. Environmental conditions are favorable
for gradual improvement in the organization of this system over
the next few days as it moves generally W-NW, and a tropical
cyclone could briefly form late Sun or Mon. This system has a
medium chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48
hours.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08.5N74W
to 08N85W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N101.5W to 07N124W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 14.5N
between 78W and 98W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 09.5N between 105W and 118W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California to
near 15N111W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are
noted across the waters of Baja California Sur and Cabo
Corrientes, while moderate southerly winds prevail in the
northern Gulf of California. A narrow plume of fresh to strong
N-NE winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region and extends
offshore to near 14N98.5W. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range across the open offshore
waters of Mexico. Haze is occurring offshore of southern Mexico
due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Central America
and Mexico, at times potentially reducing visibility.
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region will
diminish Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds will affect the
Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores during this period as developing low
pressure described above moves west-northwest and out of the
offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of
Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes will diminish later
today. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop briefly in
the northern Gulf of California this evening. NW swell with
building seas will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sat,
subsiding Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to locally moderate prevail across most the region,
except for moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will
pulse to strong early Sat and then again early Sun. Moderate
southerly swell is forecast to arrive across the region Mon and
Mon night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak ridge is noted across the waters north of the ITCZ where
gentle to moderate winds prevail, except in the northwest waters
where winds are moderate to locally fresh behind a decaying
frontal boundary. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail NW of this dying boundary
in NW swell. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in mixed long period
northerly and southerly swell prevail elsewhere.
High pressure will build in the wake of the decaying boundary,
producing freshening winds across the waters north of the ITCZ.
Winds may diminish somewhat early next week as the pressure
gradient weakens. The area of low pressure located southwest of
the Tehuantepec region will move W-NW and pass south of the
Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. NW swell in the
7-9 ft range will spread east-southeast just south of 30N
through the end of the week. A larger northerly swell will
propagate south of 30N Fri night through the weekend into early
next week with seas building to 8-11 ft mainly north of 22N
between 120W and 135W. Background northerly swell combined with
the freshening trades will build seas to the 7-9 ft range across
the west-central waters this weekend.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 9 12:07:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 091547
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Andres is centered near 14.1N
107.9W at 1500 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the
eastern North Pacific basin. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted within 300 nm in the northeast quadrant of
the low, with scattered moderate to strong convection within 270
nm in the south semicircle of the low. Andres has a brief period
of time today and tonight for some very modest strengthening,
before it reaches more stable air and strong wind shear, and
should then weaken back to a tropical depression Monday
afternoon or evening, and becoming a remnant low early Tuesday.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 09N84W to 07.5N93W to 12N103W, then
resumes SW of T.S. Andres near 11N109w to 07N119W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N119W to 04.5N133W to 05N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N
between 77W and 85W, from 07N to 13.5N between 89W and 103W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm
of the monsoon trough between 107W and 119W, and within 120 nm N
of the ITCZ between 119W and 139W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico near
the outer offshore waters boundary. Associated marine conditions
are expected to remain just outside of the offshore waters, while
convection will remain across these outer waters through Mon.
A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 18N. Light
to gentle winds prevail offshore of Baja California Norte, with
gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja California Sur. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are in the Gulf of California. Gentle
to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
across the open waters, except 7-9 ft in NW swell across the
waters off of Baja California Norte.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the middle
of the week, except a pulse of fresh to strong southerly winds in
the northern Gulf of California late tonight. A gap wind event
is possible in the Tehuantepec region Thu and Thu night. The NW
swell offshore of Baja California will linger into early next
week. Haze from agricultural fires may spread offshore and reduce
visibilities slightly at times.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed
long period NW and SW swell..
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region,
pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight hours through
Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate
southerly swell will move into the waters Sun through early next
week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico near
the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary.
A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to
fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 118W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of
7-11 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of
24N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the waters W
of 120W in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly
swell.
Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ
through the early part of the week, except fresh to strong north
of 27N between 120W and 132W for the remainder of this weekend
due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will
build north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as
across the west-central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly
swell crossing the equator today will help to build seas to 8 ft
across the southern waters.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue May 11 14:44:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 111602
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres is centered near 15.8N 111.4W at
11/1500 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to
35 kt. Associated seas are estimated at 8-10 ft. No organized deep
convection is near the exposed center.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N106W, then resumes
from 12N112W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to
03N134W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 85W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 100W and
105W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Post Tropical Cyclone Andres, located south of the Revillagigedo
Islands.
A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 20N.
Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail offshore of Baja
California, with gentle moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of
California, highest in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California,
highest north of Punta Eugenia, in a moderate NW swell. Seas are
mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere, higher near the outer fringes of
Post Tropical Cyclone Andres, impacting the waters south of
Socorro Island.
For the forecast, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the
northern Gulf of California this weekend, increasing to fresh to
strong Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will continue to dominate the
waters west of Baja California today, with another set arriving
this weekend. A strong gap wind event is possible in the
Tehuantepec region Thu through early Sat with building seas.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed
long period NW and SW swell, except 5-7 offshore of Ecuador and
to 7 ft in the Papagayo region.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the
Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight
hours through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly
swell will impact the waters through today before subsiding,
with another set arriving Fri, with a larger, reinforcing set
this weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Post Tropical Cyclone Andres, located south of Socorro Island and
just outside of the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary.
A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to
locally fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W
of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly
swell producing seas of 7-8 ft continues to propagate across the
northern waters N of 25N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-7 ft in a
mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell, reaching
8 ft from 05N to 15N west of 135W.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail
north of the ITCZ through today. Northerly swell will linger
north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as across
the west-central waters, decaying by midweek. Southerly swell
crossing the equator will help to maintain seas to 8 ft across
the southern waters through the early part of the week. Fairly
tranquil marine conditions are anticipated for the remainder of
the week into the weekend.
$$
Christensen/Lewitsky
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu May 13 15:44:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 131535
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure in the
Gulf of Mexico will support gale force winds in the Tehuantepec
region through Fri morning. There may be a brief lull just below
gale force this afternoon, although mariners transiting the area
should prepare for gale force winds through Fri morning. Seas
will build to 8-11 ft with these winds. Gale force winds will
diminish by Fri afternoon with fresh to strong northerly winds
persisting into early Sat before diminishing.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 08N79W to 08N125W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 96W
and 117W. Scattered showers prevail along the remainder of the
boundaries.
In addition, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 12N
between 90W and 96W, including across southwest Guatemala and
southeast Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec Gale Warning.
Along Baja California, northerly gentle to moderate winds are
noted with light winds across the Gulf of California. Seas range
5-7 ft in NW swell with 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.
Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail. Hazy/smokey
conditions may be evident near the coast south of Cabo Corrientes
to the Tehuantepec region.
For the forecast, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the
northern Gulf of California this weekend, except fresh to strong
Fri night and Sat night as a pair of troughs move through the
area, building seas temporarily to 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will subside in
the waters west of Baja California through Thu, with another set
arriving on Sat.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, while gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft
range in mixed long period NW and SW swell, except 5-7 ft
offshore of Ecuador and in the Papagayo region.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the
Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight
hours through Sat night. Seas may occasionally build to 8 ft with
the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. A set of southerly swell is expected to arrive by Fri,
with a larger, reinforcing set this weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ.
Gentle to moderate trades dominate the open waters of the
tropical eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 5-8 ft range in
long period, mixed northerly and southerly swell. The highest
seas are found west of 120W and south of 11N, and along the
equator between 105W and 120W.
For the forecast, fairly tranquil marine conditions with moderate
trades will prevail through the remainder of the week and
weekend with trades locally to fresh at times. Southerly swell
crossing the equator will maintain seas to 8 ft across the
southern waters through Fri. A reinforcing set of southerly swell
will east of 120W this weekend which will build seas to 7-9 ft
south of 10N and east of 120W. Otherwise, seas will be mainly in
the 5-7 ft range, locally to 8 ft in fresh trades.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 15 08:49:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 150914
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N89W to 10N112W to
08N126W. The ITCZ continues from 08N126W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm either
side of a line from 08N113W to 11N118W to 12N126W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere from 04N to to 11N
88W and 128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning, becoming moderate to fresh this
evening, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate northerly winds are noted
west of Baja California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of Baja
California, and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds prevail.
Looking ahead, fresh southwesterly winds will pulse in the
northern Gulf of California this weekend as a pair of surface
troughs move through the area. Moderate to fresh NW winds are
expected west of Baja California Sun night through Wed. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scatterometer data this morning showed a small area of fresh to
strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, while gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in long period SW
swell, except 6-8 ft in the Papagayo region.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere through Wed. Southerly swell will continue across the
forecast waters through Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed
swell. The highest seas are found south of 10N between 100W and
120W from large cross-equatorial S to SW swell.
For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail this weekend, with trades locally to fresh at times.
Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas at 7-9 ft
across the southern waters through Wed.
$$
Mundell
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 15 18:54:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 152054
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 09N84W to 10N110W to a
1012 mb low near 10N125W to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from
07N129W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 04N-13N and east of 128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
area, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate northerly winds are noted west
of Baja California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of Baja California,
and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds prevail.
Looking ahead, fresh southwesterly winds will pulse in the
northern Gulf of California through Sun as a pair of surface
troughs move across the area. Moderate NW winds are expected
west of Baja California Sun night through mid-week, increasing to
fresh by the end of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Latest scatterometer data depicts a small area of fresh to
strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, while gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in long period SW
swell, except 6-9 ft in the Papagayo region.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through mid-week. Southerly swell will continue
across the forecast waters through Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed
swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds and highest seas are
found in the proximity of a 1012 mb surface low, centered near
10N125W.
For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail this weekend, with trades locally to fresh at times.
Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas at 7-9 ft
across the southern waters through Wed.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 16 07:04:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 161003
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 16 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia to 08N78W
to 07N90W to 09N105W to 10N115W and to low pressure near 10N127W
1011 mb. ITCZ extend from the low pressure to 07N130W and to
beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 78W-81W,
and within 180 nm north of the trough between 109W-111W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 NM south of the
trough between 89W-92W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
130W-133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A somewhat tight gradient between the western periphery of
Atlantic high pressure that extends to the western Gulf and
relatively lower pressure across southeastern Mexico and near
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is presently inducing moderate to
fresh northwest to north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
These winds will become light and variable during today as the
gradient weakens. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of
Baja California along with seas of 5-6 ft. Seas are 3-4 ft in the
Gulf of California, except for higher seas of 4-6 ft in the
northern part of the Gulf, where fresh to locally strong
southwest winds are occurring.
As for the forecast, the winds west of Baja California will
change little through Wed, then increase to fresh to strong
speeds mainly west of central and northern Baja California
beginning late Thu as stronger high pressure builds southeastward
across the waters west of Baja California. The fresh to locally
strong southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California will
continue through late Sun night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over the Gulf and
Papagayo and vicinity waters. Seas in that area are peaking to 9
ft. These winds will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon,
with seas subsiding to just below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted elsewhere, with seas of 5-7 ft due to a long-period
south to southwest swell. These winds are will forecast to change
little through Wed. The south to southwest swell will continue
through Thu night as extensive pulses of southern hemispheric
swell energy cross the Equator.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A rather broad surface ridge is the main feature over this part
of the area controlling the prevailing wind regime. It is
anchored by a strong 1033 mb high center that is well northwest
of the area near 38N146W. A 1011 mb low is along the monsoon
trough near 10N127W. The pressure gradient between the low and
the high pressure is presently allowing for mainly fresh northeast
to east winds over the waters from 11N to 13N between 125W-130W,
with peak seas of 8 ft due a combination of generated wind waves
combining with a northeast to east swell component present there.
Gentle to moderate trade winds noted elsewhere over these waters,
with seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to s southerly swell
component.
As for the forecast, the aforementioned low will track to near
10N129W this afternoon. A slight tightening of the gradient
between it and the high pressure to the north will allow for
winds north of the low to increase to fresh to strong speeds from
11N to 14N between 127W-130W. By late tonight, the low is
forecast to reach near 10N132W with pressure of 1011 mb. The
fresh to strong winds will continue to its N, with seas in the
range of 8-10 ft. By early Mon afternoon, the low is forecast to
weaken to a trough from near 12N133W to 09N134W, with winds
diminishing to fresh speeds from 11N to 14N between 127W-135W
and resulted seas of 8-9 ft primarily due to a long-period south
swell. The trough is forecast to reach from near 12N135W to
09N136W by Mon night. The swell near it will be mixed resulting
in 8 ft seas from 12N to 15N between 133W-136W. The gentle to
moderate trade winds elsewhere are expected to continue through
late Sun night, then increase slightly in speeds to within 300 nm
north of the ITCZ through Tue. Model guidance indicates that
these winds then increase over most of the area through late in
the week as stronger high pressure builds over the area. Southerly
swell crossing the equator will maintain seas of 8-10 ft across
the southern waters south of about 09N and east of 120W through
tonight. These seas will gradually subside through late Mon as
the swell decays. The guidance shows another set of long-period
southerly swell moving through the far southern waters east of
125W by mid-week.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 17 13:18:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 171546
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 09N79W to
08N100W to 08N115W to 09N130W. It then transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm south of the trough between 78W- 80W and within 60
nm of trough between 104W- 107W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure centered NW of the area is dominating waters
offshore Baja California, creating moderate to fresh NW winds,
with a localized area of strong winds near Cabo San Lucas. These
winds will continue into mid-week. Fresh to locally strong
northwest winds are expected primarily north of Cabo San Lazaro
this evening and into Tue as the pressure gradient tightens some.
Seas will build to 5-7 ft. Winds will further increase to fresh
to strong speeds mainly west of central and northern Baja
California beginning late Thu as stronger high pressure builds
southeastward across the waters west of Baja California. South to
southwest swell will build seas as it propagates across the
waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning on Tue. Looking ahead for
later in the week, a trough or low may form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region.
Gulf of California: Generally moderate SE winds will prevail into
late week, then transition to SW. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will
gradually increase through the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate E winds in the Papagayo region will continue to decrease
today. These will pulse to moderate again Tue, before diminishing
again into late week. Seas of 5-7 ft will change little through
mid-week. Long-period cross equatorial southerly swell will
continue to impact the offshore forecast waters over the next
several days. Seas of 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight. Additional
pulses of long-period southwest swell will reach the area by mid-
week building seas to 8 ft or higher.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure continues to dominate the northern waters. This is
producing a large area of moderate to fresh trades N of the
ITCZ, with seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
noted elsewhere, with seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to a
southerly swell component. Long-period cross equatorial
southerly swell over the waters south of about 10N and east of
about 111W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands will decay
late tonight, but additional pulses of long-period southwest
swell will begin to propagate through these same waters by mid-
week building seas to a maximum height of 10 or 11 ft west of the
Galapagos Islands.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue May 18 14:58:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 181549
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 18 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N90W to 10N115W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N115W to 06N125W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 84W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 10N between 92W
and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N
between 118W and 122W, from 09N to 12N between 122W and 129W,
and from 10N to 13N between 132W and 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A few ship observations confirm generally moderate to fresh NW
winds persist off Baja California this morning. A concurrent
altimeter satellite pass indicated seas mostly 5 to 6 ft, but
reaching near 7 ft in some areas. These winds and seas are on the
western edge of a broad subtropical ridge extending to the south
of Los Cabos and through Socorro Island. Light to gentle breezes
and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California. Farther
south, gentle W to NW breezes persist over Mexican offshore
waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 5 to 7 ft however,
mainly in longer period SW swell.
For the forecast, the high pressure centered west of Baja
California will continue to support mainly moderate to locally
fresh northwest to north winds through mid week. Winds will
increase to fresh to strong speeds mainly west of central and
northern Baja California beginning late Thu as stronger high
pressure builds southeastward across the waters west of Baja
California. South to southwest swell will build seas as it
propagates across the waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning
today. Looking ahead for later in the week, a trough or low may
form well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. For the Gulf
of California, expect fresh southeast winds to develop Wed in
advance of a cold front that moves over far southern California
and the far northern part of Baja California. These winds become
briefly become fresh or even strong southwest to west winds late
Thu night as the tail-end of the front moves across far northern
Baja California and the northern Gulf of California. Seas will
build to around 6 ft with these winds.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle east winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate
speeds this afternoon, before diminishing to mainly gentle
speeds again through Fri. Fresh gap winds may return to the Gulf
of Papagayo by Sat. Seas of 5-7 ft will change little into late
in the week. Long period cross- equatorial southerly swell will
continue to impact the offshore forecast waters through Fri
night, then begin to subside on Sat. Seas of 6-8 ft between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will begin to build to 8 ft or
higher on Wed as additional pulses of long- period southwest
swell begin to propagate through those waters.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure ridging continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between it and comparatively lower
pressures in the tropical zone area is leading to a large area of
moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ, with seas up to
8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere, with
seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to a southerly swell
component. By late Fri, the area of moderate to fresh trade winds
will have expanded to encompass the waters west of a line from
21N116W to 08N129W as the high pressure over the region
strengthens.
Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell over the waters
south of about 11N and east of about 110W, except in the lee of
the Galapagos Islands will be replaced by a new set of long-
period southerly swell beginning today. This new set of southerly
swell will propagate through these same waters through late Wed
night, then begin to decay through Fri night. Before doing so, it
is expected to raise seas to a peak of 10 or 11 ft over the far
south-central waters west of the Galapagos Islands.
$$
Christensen/Aguirre
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From
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All on Wed May 19 15:53:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 191552
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends westward from 11N85W to 11N110W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N110W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 92W and
88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident
from 09N to 12N between 118W and 128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Several ship observations indicate mostly fresh fresh NW winds
near the west coast of Baja California, with 6 to 8 ft seas.
Light winds and slight seas prevail over the Gulf of California.
Farther south, light to gentle W to NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
in SW swell are noted.
For the forecast, fresh NW winds will persist west of Baja
California Norte through Sun. Seas will increase west of Baja
California Thu night and Fri as NW swell behind a weak frontal
boundary moving across southern California and northern Baja
California Norte. Meanwhile, long period SW swell will persist
over Mexican offshore waters into the weekend. A tropical low may
form well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region during the
next day or two.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Earlier scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds in the
offshore waters of Central America and northwest South America.
Concurrent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas are in the
6-8 ft range, likely in SW swell.
For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell
will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters through Fri
night, then begin to subside on Sat. Light to gentle winds are
expected to continue through the weekend in the forecast waters.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between it and comparatively lower
pressure in the deep tropics supports a large area of moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ, with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. SW swell is
evident farther east, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far
north as 10N east of 125W.
For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will allow trade
winds to increase north of the ITCZ and west of 125W, with seas
building to around 8 ft. 8 to 10 ft seas west of Baja California
will spread westward in the northern forecast waters Thu night
through Sat morning. Seas will continue to be 6 to 7 ft east of
125W in SW swell. Looking ahead, weak low pressure is expected
to form well south of the Tehuantepec area by Thu, but not
intensify as it tracks westward along 10N between 95W and 105W
through Sun.
$$
Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu May 20 15:15:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 201537
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends westward from 11N86W to a 1010 mb low
pressure near 11N98W to 10N109W. The ITCZ continues from 10N109W
to 10N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 124W and 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm SE of the 1010 mb
low pressure.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh NW winds are currently west of Baja California Norte, where
seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed NW and S to SW swell. Moderate N
winds are offshore Baja California Sur. Gentle breezes and
slight seas prevail in the Gulf of California. Farther south,
gentle W to NW winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in S to SW swell are
noted.
For the forecast, fresh NW winds will persist west of Baja
California Norte through Sun. Seas will increase west of Baja
California tonight and Fri in NW swell. Moderate to fresh north
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail in the offshore waters of Central
America and northwest South America. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in SW
swell, except 7 to 9 ft in waters off Ecuador and southern
Colombia.
For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell
will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters through Fri
night, then begin to subside on Sat. Moderate to locally fresh E
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend
through early next week. Light to gentle winds are expected to
continue through the weekend elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between it and comparatively lower
pressure in the deep tropics supports moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ, with 6 to 8 ft seas. SW swell is
evident farther east, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far
north as 13N east of 125W. A weak low pressure area is centered
well south of Tehuantepec near 11N98W. Scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh SW winds are south of a diffuse low
center.
For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will allow trade
winds to increase to fresh north of the ITCZ and west of 120W,
with seas building to around 8 to 9 ft. 8 to 10 ft seas west of
Baja California will spread westward in the northern forecast
waters through Sat morning. Seas will be 6 to 7 ft east of 125W
in SW swell Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, little change is
expected into early next week.
$$
Hagen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 22 09:01:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 220748
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 11N104W to 09N120W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of both
boundaries.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
range west of Baja California Norte and 7-9 ft west of Baja
California Sur. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will continue
W of Baja California this weekend along with seas of 8 to 11 ft.
Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds are expected to
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to moderate S winds south of the monsoon trough. The
exception is in the Papagayo region where some moderate east
winds are pulsing. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW
swell, except 7 to 9 ft in the waters off Ecuador and southern
Colombia.
For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell
will gradually diminish the offshore forecast waters today. Fresh
E winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into the
middle of next week. Light to gentle winds are expected to
continue elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 115W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
much of the open Pacific west of 115W, except for north of 25N
and east of 125W, where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. S to SW
swell is prevails east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are
in the 5 to 7 ft range.
For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will support fresh
trade winds to the north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas will
build to 8 to 9 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ.
Little change is expected through early next week.
$$
KONARIK
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From
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All on Sat May 22 17:47:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 222040
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 08N93W to 13N109W to
09N117W. The ITCZ continues from 09N117W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E
of 84W, and from 04N to 09N between 89W and 100W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 100W and
115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 09N between 128W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds west of Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the
7-9 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 6-8 ft over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will continue
W of Baja California this weekend, with seas of 8 to 9 ft
subsiding through Sun. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf
of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in
S to SW swell, except 6 to 8 ft in the waters off Ecuador and
southern Colombia as well as over the Papagayo region.
For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell
will gradually diminish across the offshore forecast waters this
evening. Fresh E winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo into the middle of next week. Light to gentle winds are
expected to continue elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across
much of the open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails
east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft
range.
For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds
to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas
in the 7 to 9 ft range over much of this area will gradually
subside this weekend.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 23 07:34:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 230753
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0745 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N101W to 11N116W.
The ITCZ continues from 11N116W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 90W and
from 05N to 09N between 125W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds west of Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the
7-9 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula and 5-7 ft
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will continue
W of Baja California with seas of 8 to 9 ft into tonight. Fresh
to occasionally strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec into Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere into the middle of next week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell,
except 6 to 8 ft over the Papagayo region.
For the forecast, fresh E winds are expected to pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. Light to gentle
winds are expected to continue elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across
much of the open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails
east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft
range.
For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds
to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas
in the 7 to 9 ft range over much of this area will gradually
subside Sun.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun May 23 17:34:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 232041
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to 11N112W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N118W to 09N130W. It resumes from 10N134W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 09N east of 84W, from 05N to 10N between 87W and
106W, and from 07N to 12N between 122W and 133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh winds
west of Baja California. Moderate to fresh are also noted over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range west of
the Baja California peninsula and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds W of the Baja
California peninsula will diminish slightly through the middle of
the week. Winds over this area will increase modestly at the end
of the week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through the upcoming week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf
of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S
to SW swell.
For the forecast, fresh E winds are expected to pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected to continue elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much of the
open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W
and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range.
For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds
to the north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 7 to 8 ft
range over much of this area will gradually subside through the
early part of the week.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 24 14:23:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 241538
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N110W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N110W to 10N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N
east of 90W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh winds west of Baja
California. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across
the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open
waters off Mexico.
For the forecast, high pressure west of the region will maintain
moderate NW winds off Baja California through the middle of the
week. Winds over this area will increase modestly at the end of
the week. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through mid week, then possibly increasing to strong
pulses by Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere
through the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds are expected
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much of the
open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W
and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range.
For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds
to the north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 7 to 8 ft
range over much of this area will gradually subside through the
mid week.
$$
SK/Christensen
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue May 25 18:44:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 252153
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low near 09N77W to
08N82W to 12N113W. A surface trough extends from 12N118W to
05N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07N131W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either
sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, as well as within the
surface trough.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered northwest
of the area near 33N138W southeastward toward Socorro Island.
With this, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja
California with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell. Light
breezes and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California as
well as across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas are
5 to 6 ft in SW swell off southern Mexico. Smoke from forest
fires and agricultural burning may be limiting visibility in the
nearshore waters from Guerrero to Nayarit.
Looking ahead, the high pressure west of the region will
maintain moderate NW winds off Baja California through Wed.
Winds over this area will increase modestly at the end of the
week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week, then possibly increase
to strong pulses on Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through the week. Looking ahead, low pressure
may form several hundred miles off southern Mexico coast by Fri
or Sat, possibly allowing associated fresh swell to enter into
the offshore zones of southern Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell.
Showers and a few thunderstorms remain active north the monsoon
trough beyond 120 nm of the coast from northern Costa Rica to
Guatemala.
Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected to pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected to continue elsewhere into Fri night. Looking ahead, low
pressure may form beyond 250 nm off northern Central America by
Fri or Sat, possibly allowing associated fresh swell to enter
into the offshore zones of from Nicaragua to Guatemala.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of
15N, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N138W.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and
west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much of the open Pacific
west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W and south of
15N, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. A very broad upper
trough is over the tropical waters between 100W and 120W,
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon
trough.
For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and NW swell
up to 7 ft north of 20N and east of 125W by mid week as high
pressure builds in the wake of a weak trough moving across the
region. High pressure will support fresh trade winds to the north
of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 5 to 7 ft range over
much of this area will gradually subside through the mid week.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure may form along the monsoon
trough east of 110W but beyond 250 nm off northern Central
America and southern Mexico by Fri into Sat, then slowly drift
primarily to the west.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed May 26 14:59:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 261540
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low near 09N76W to
09N90W to 08N100W to 11N110W to 10N117W. A surface trough extends
from 12N121W to 06N128W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
is near the northern end of the trough axis covering the waters
from 08.5N to 10.5N between 117W and 123W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 10N E of 90W
to the coast of Colombia, from 09N to 13N between 92W and 95W,
and from 08N to 12N between 100W and 112W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered
northwest of the area near 33N138W southeastward toward Socorro
Island. With this, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja
California with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell. Light
breezes and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California as
well as across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas are 5
to 6 ft in SW swell off southern Mexico. Smoke from forest fires
and agricultural burning may be limiting visibility in the
nearshore waters from Guerrero to Nayarit.
The high pressure northwest of the region will build into the
area late this week, causing moderate to fresh NW winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into the weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW
swell.
Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected to pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected to continue elsewhere into the weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N of 15N W
of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough and west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much of the
open Pacific west of 115W, with the exception of seas to 8 ft in
northerly swell N of 28N between 121W AND 125W. This will subside
to less than 8 ft by this afternoon. S to SW swell prevails east
of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range.
For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and NW swell
up to 7 ft north of 20N and east of 125W through mid week as
high pressure builds. High pressure will support fresh trade
winds to the north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 5 to
7 ft range over much of this area will gradually subside through
the mid week.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form several
hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern
Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system as it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.
Farther west, another area of low pressure is expected to form
several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico later this
week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter as the
system moves W or WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu May 27 15:54:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 271528
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 09N98W to 07N85W
to 09N100W to 10N120W. A surface trough is analyzed from 10N126W
to 05N135W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from
03N-08N between 78W-85W, from 10N-14N between 99W-105W, and from
08N-11N between 107W-114W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered
northwest of the area near 32N135W southeastward toward the
Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing gentle to
moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California
with seas generally in the 3-5 ft range, except 5 to 7 ft N of
Punta Eugenia. The high pressure will build into the area
causing moderate to fresh NW winds across the waters W of Baja
California tonight through Sun night. Seas are likely to build
to 8-9 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Sat night into Sun, and
may persist early on Mon.
Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
with seas below 3 ft.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in
the Tehuantepec region today. Looking ahead, a low pressure may form
several hundred miles S of the Tehuantepec region by this weekend,
possibly bringing an increase in winds an seas across the offshore
waters zones of southern Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds continue over and downwind of
the Gulf of Papagayo to about 90W. Fresh to locally strong E
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight
into early Fri morning.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell. These
marine conditions will persist through early Fri. Looking ahead,
a low pressure may form along the monsoon trough several hundred
miles off northern Central America possibly bringing an increase
in winds an seas across the offshore forecast waters from
Nicaragua to Guatemala during the upcoming weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters
into the weekend. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much
of the open Pacific west of 115W.
Looking ahead, An area of low pressure is expected to form several
hundred miles south of the coast of southeastern Mexico by this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some
gradual development of this system as it moves generally westward
at 5 to 10 kt. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Farther
west, another area of low pressure could form about a thousand
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
in a couple of days. However, environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive for any development as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri May 28 09:09:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 28 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
10N74W to 09N79W to 08N90W to 10N104W and to 09N111W, where
latest overnight scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 08N120W to 10N126W to 09N130W and
to beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between
89W-91W, between 94W-101W and within 60 nm south of the
trough between 101W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between 110W-115W, within
120 nm south of the trough between 107W-110W and within
120 nm north of the trough between 111W-115W.
Scattered moderate convection removed from the monsoon trough is
along the coast of Colombia extending westward to near 80W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from a strong 1031 mb high pressure
center that is northwest of the area near 32N135W southeastward
to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated
gradient is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California mainly north of 26N. Seas
are generally in the 5-7 ft range north of Cabo San Lazaro, and
3-5 ft elsewhere. The high pressure will continue to build into
the area allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across
the waters west of Baja California through Sat night. Seas are
likely to build to a peak of 9 ft as a set of northwest swell
propagates through the waters south of 30N and mixes with a
southwest swell component.
Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate winds will
continue through the upcoming weekend along with seas of
about 2-4 ft.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
will continue in the Tehuantepec region through the upcoming
weekend. Low pressure may form several hundred miles south of
of the southeastern coast of Mexico during the next few
days. This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the
offshore waters of southeastern Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast to east winds over
the Gulf of Papagayo will begin to diminish this afternoon and
through the weekend. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft this
afternoon.
Gentle to moderate east winds are present north of the monsoon
trough, while moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are
south of the monsoon trough. These winds will reach strong
speeds at times on Fri as convection increases along and near the
monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and
5-7 ft south of the trough. The seas south of the monsoon trough
are likely to increase to peak of 8 or 9 ft over the next couple
of days in enhanced southerly flow there. This will occur ahead
of low pressure that is expected to form along the monsoon trough
several hundred miles offshore northern Central America during
the next few days. This may possibly lead to some increase of
winds as well as build seas across the offshore forecast waters
from Nicaragua to Guatemala.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern
forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of
the ITCZ west of about 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the
open Pacific waters west of 115W.
Looking ahead, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with
the broad area of low pressure located about 780 nm south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little
more concentrated since 24 hours ago. Some additional slow
development could occur during the next few days as this system
moves westward or west-northwestward at about 8 kt. Overnight
ASCAT data depicted fresh to strong easterly winds near the
shower and thunderstorm activity. With showers and thunderstorms
on the increasing trend, expect for these winds to continue
through today and possibly longer if a definitive low pressure
feature evolves from this broad area of low pressure. Farther
east, another area of low pressure is expected to form several
hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico during
the next few days. Presently, environmental conditions appear
favorable for some gradual development of this system as it will
be forecast to move generally westward at 8 kt or less.
$$
Aguirre
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 31 08:39:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 310940
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES....
Tropical Depression Two-E is centered near 12.2N 106.6W at
31/0900 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted within 210 nm NW semicircle of center.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere
from 08N to 11N between 105W and 112W. On the forecast track,
the tropical cyclone should remain well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and the system is expected to become a
tropical storm this morning.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
10N74W to 08N85W to 11N100W, then continues W of TD Two-E from
12N110W to a 1011 mb low pres located near 10N122W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N122W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from convection
associated with TD Two-E, scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 12N between 118W and 123W, and from 07N to 10N west of
132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure located near 33N134W
southeastward to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands producing
gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of
Baja California with seas of 5 to 7 ft. These marine conditions
will persist through mid-week. Seas may increase to 8 ft just S
of the Revillagigedo Islands Tue evening into Wed as T.D. Two-E
as a Tropical Storm passes S of the islands.
Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less
will prevail in the northern part of the Gulf during the next
several days. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas in the
2 to 4 ft range are expected across the central and southern
parts of the Gulf.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft may affect
the far offshore waters from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes today
through Tue night as currently TD Two-E, forecast to become a
tropical storm, continues to moves WNW and well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in
the Papagayo region through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft.
Recent satellite derived wind data show gentle to moderate south
to southwest winds S of the monsoon trough, and mainly gentle
winds N of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected through
mid-week. Seas will increase to 6-7 ft in SW swell between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands beginning today. This will
persist through at least Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details
regarding Tropical Depression Two-E.
A ridge will remain in place over the northern forecast waters
through mid-week while weakening some. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of
the ITCZ west of about 125W with seas of 7-9 ft due to northeast
wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less than 8
ft today.
Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate mainly
across the forecast waters E of 120W, building seas to 8-9 ft N
of the equator to about 8N-9N by late today. Seas of 8-9 ft are
also expected through tonight in the vicinity of a 1011 mb low
pres now located within the monsoon trough near 10N122W.
$$
GR
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon May 31 17:13:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 312205
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 31 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES....
Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 13.5N 108.9W at 31/2100
UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 100W and 117W. A slower west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. Additional strengthening is expected tonight and
Tuesday, followed by slow weakening on Wednesday and Thursday.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N90W to
11N101W, then continues W of TS Blanca from 12N112W to a 1012 mb
low pres located near 11N121W. The ITCZ continues from 11N121W
to 06N130W to 05N140W. Aside from convection associated with TS
Blanca, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N E of
89W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with the
1012 mb low from 08N to 13N between 118W and 124W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure located N of the
area southeastward to just west of the Baja California offshores
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore
waters of Baja California with seas to 7 ft. These marine
conditions will persist through mid-week. Seas may increase to 8
ft just S of the Revillagigedo Islands Tue evening into Wed as
the tropical cyclone in the special features passes S of the
islands.
Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less
will prevail in the northern part of the Gulf during the next
several days. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas in the
2 to 4 ft range are expected across the central and southern
parts of the Gulf.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft may affect
the far offshore waters from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes this
evening through Tue night as TS Blanca continues to moves WNW
and well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue morning then decrease
to gentle to moderate through mid-week. Seas will be in the of
5-7 ft range.
Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue S of the
monsoon trough, and mainly gentle winds N of the monsoon trough.
Little change is expected through mid-week. Seas to 7 ft in SW
swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will persist
through at least Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details
regarding Tropical Storm Blanca.
A ridge will remain in place over the northern forecast waters
through mid-week while weakening some. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds
north of the ITCZ west of about 120W with seas of 7-8 ft due to
northeast wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less
than 8 ft today.
Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate mainly
across the forecast waters E of 120W, building seas to 8-9 ft N
of the equator to about 8N-9N. Seas of 8-9 ft are also expected
through tonight in the vicinity of a 1012 mb low pres now
located within the monsoon trough near 11N121W.
$$
Ramos
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From
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All on Wed Jun 2 14:42:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 021544
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES....
Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 15.5N 112.2W at 02/1500
UTC moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 240 nm in the east quadrant of Blanca. Blanca is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Thu morning, then to
a remnant low Sat morning, dissipating by Mon morning.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N82W to 10N104W, then resumes
south of Blanca near 10N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near
11N126W. The ITCZ continues from 11N126W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N
between 77W and 85W, within 150 nm south-southwest of the monsoon
trough between 85W and 104W, and from 07N to 12N between 104W and
117W. Similar convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 92W and
103W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Tropical Storm Blanca is forecast to remain southwest of the
offshore forecast waters of Mexico, however outer associated
winds and seas may reach the waters between the Revillagigedo
and Clarion Islands today. Please see the Special Features
section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca.
Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja
California with light to gentle NW-N winds. Light and variable
winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico,
except diminishing moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the
Tehuantepec region this morning. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft in a mix
of long period swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California, higher near the entrance.
For the forecast, the ridge west of Baja California will prevail
with little change in winds and seas there through the end of the
week. The pressure gradient in that region will tighten some
this weekend into early next week, increasing winds to moderate
to locally fresh. Moderate southerly winds will pulse in the
northern Gulf of California through the end of the week, then
fresh to strong pulses Sat night and Sun night. A building set of
northerly swell may arrive west of Baja California Norte by the
very end of the weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell,
except 5-8 ft offshore of Ecuador.
For the forecast, winds will diminish somewhat across the
offshore waters through the end of the week, then will return to
current levels by the end of the weekend into early next week.
The moderate southerly swell will slightly decay through the
weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details
regarding Tropical Storm Blanca.
An area of low pressure is along the convergence zone near
11N126W at 1011 mb. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 300 nm in the northwest semicircle of
the low. Otherwise, a ridge extends across the waters north of
the ITCZ, with a 1021 mb high centered near 31N136W. A weakening
cold front is noted west of the high and the forecast waters.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters outside
of Blanca, except locally fresh near the low pressure area near
11N126W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the open waters,
highest near the low pressure area.
For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is forecast
as weakening Blanca is forecast to move toward the west within
the trade wind flow, and as the low near 11N126W gradually opens
up into a trough. A set of fresh northerly swell may propagate
into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of
the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there
to 7-9 ft.
$$
Lewitsky
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All on Thu Jun 3 14:43:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 031532
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES....
Tropical Depression Blanca is centered near 15.7N 114.0W at
03/1500 UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant with scattered moderate
convection elsewhere within 360 nm in the northeast and east
quadrants. Blanca is forecast to become a remnant low by Fri
morning, then to dissipate by Mon morning.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
11N74W to 06N80W to 10N90W to 09N100W to 13N110W, then resumes
south of Blanca near 11N115W to 12N124W to 09N135W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W
and 81W, within 120 nm southwest of the coast of Central America
and Mexico between 81W and 100W, from 07N to 11N between 97W and
110W, and from 07N to 13N between 130W and 137W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 93W and 96W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Blanca.
Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja
California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds with seas of
4-7 ft. Light and variable winds are noted elsewhere across the
offshore waters of Mexico, except for a plume of moderate N-NE
winds in the Tehuantepec region. Seas of 5-7 ft in southerly
swell prevail elsewhere, except 7-8 ft reaching the waters
between Socorro and Clarion Islands due to the proximity of
Blanca.
For the forecast, the ridge west of Baja California will prevail
with little change in winds and seas there through the end of the
week. The pressure gradient in that region will tighten some
this weekend into early next week, bringing some increase in
winds. Moderate southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf
of California through Fri, then fresh to strong pulses are
expected Fri night and Sat night as a weak low or trough moves
across that region. Seas of 6-8 ft in northerly swell may reach
the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Sun night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle
to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with
moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in
the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the
Papagayo region through Sun morning. Southerly flow will freshen
south of the monsoon trough by the end of the weekend into early
next week. Seas will gradually subside to 4-6 ft across the
offshore waters by Fri, and to 3-5 ft during the upcoming
weekend. Seas will then build to 4-7 ft south of the monsoon
trough early next week as winds freshen there.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Blanca.
A weak and broad ridge dominates the northern forecast region
and extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. A
stationary front is just northwest of the area near 30N141W to
just north of the Hawaiian Islands. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the open waters outside of Blanca, except locally
fresh within about 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between
120W and 140W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the open
waters.
For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected
as weakening Blanca moves toward the west within the trade wind
flow. A set of fresh northerly swell is forecast to propagate
into the forecast waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by
the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building
seas there to 7-9 ft.
$$
Lewitsky
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All on Fri Jun 4 09:39:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 040908
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES....
Newly downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca is centered near
16.3N 115.6W at 04/0900 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. The low level circulation is completely
exposed under westerly shear, with only a few diminishing showers
approximately 180 nm to the west. Seas are still 8 to 10 ft
within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle of the low pressure. The
remnant low of Bianca is expected to continue to drift west
before dissipating by late Sun.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of tropical wave is entering the basin near 80W, from
03N northward across central Panama, moving westward at around
5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to
08N between 79W and 80W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
Segments of the monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to
12N108W, and from 11N117W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends continues
from 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 10N to 14N between 95W and 102W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
newly downgraded post-tropical low of Blanca located south of
Clarion Island.
Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja
California producing gentle to locally moderate NW-N winds with
seas of 4-6 ft in mixed long period swell, reaching near 7 ft off
Clarion Island due to swell from Blanca. Light and variable
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere across
the offshore waters of Mexico.
For the forecast, the remnant low of Blanca centered just south
of Clarion Island will continue to weaken as it drifts farther
west through Sun. Fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will
pulse into the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun
as a trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging
will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through
early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja
California due to NW swell, while moderate SW swell off southern
Mexico will subside starting Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle
to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with
moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in
the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in
the Papagayo region through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the
monsoon trough early next week. A moderate southerly swell will
gradually subside through Sun, then will build slightly south of
the monsoon trough as winds freshen there.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
newly downgraded post-tropical low of Blanca located south of
Clarion Island.
A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is
supporting gentle to moderate trades across the open waters
outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell.
For the forecast, winds and seas within 120 nm in the northwest
semicircle of the remnant low of Blanca will diminish over the
next 48 hours as the low stalls near 15N120W, before eventually
dissipating through late Sun. Meanwhile, NW swell up to 8 ft will
move into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 130W Sun into
Mon, then will subside. Looking ahead, global models are
indicating a low will form Sat into Sun outside of the offshore
waters area of southern Mexico, beyond 240 nm. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or
early next week while it drifts west- northwestward well off the
coast of Mexico.
$$
Christensen
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From
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All on Mon Jun 7 14:56:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 071556
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES....
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located near 13N110W or about 350 nm south-southeast
of Socorro Island. However, the system still lacks a well-defined
center, as recent satellite imagery indicates the low-level
circulation remains broad and displaced well east of the thunderstorm
activity. The disturbance still has the potential to become a short-
lived tropical depression today before environmental conditions
become less favorable for development by tonight. The system is
forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the next
couple of days. Currently, fresh to strong winds are within 75 nm
W semicircle of center with seas of 8-10 ft. The Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 96W from 05N to 15N. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is near the northern end of the wave
axis from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough crosses western Panama and continues to
08N90W to 09N96W to 14N105W to the low pressure in the special
features section near 13N110W to 14N120W. The ITCZ extends from
12N125W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is evident from 05N to 08N between 77W and 85W, and
from 09N to 13N between 88W and 93W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 08N between 90W and 102W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh SW winds are pulsing into the northern Gulf of
California due to a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
west of the region and low pressure over the lower Colorado
River. Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California, with 4 to
6 ft seas, reaching 7 ft near Guadalupe Island where NW swell is
approaching. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off
southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.
For the forecast, a mid to upper level low centered off southern
California will move across the region through Tue. Surface
pressure will lower over the area allowing SW gap winds and seas
to increase briefly tonight across the northern Gulf of California.
NW swell is now propagating across the waters N of Punta Eugenia
building seas to 6-8 ft. This swell event will reach the waters N
of Cabo San Lazaro by tonight. Building high pressure in the
wake of the trough will support fresh to strong NW winds off Baja
California Norte Wed and Wed night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly
northwestward or northward. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 77W and 85W. This
convective activity is mainly affecting western Panama. A surge
of SW flow is south of the monsoon trough that currently crosses
western Panama. Seas there area in the 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle
breezes along with 3 to 5 ft seas persist north of the monsoon
trough in the offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala.
Farther south, moderate SW winds and 5 to 6 ft seas persist
across the offshore waters of Ecuador and Colombia.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
potential for the next tropical cyclone.
A weak ridge dominates the northern forecast waters particularly
N of 20N W of 120W supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across
the region, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell.
For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 9 ft entering the waters
north of 20N between 120W and 130W will subside into midweek.
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the ITCZ
west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to 7
ft range. Starting tonight, the low pressure near 13N110W will
weaken as it continues to move to the WSW over the next couple of
days. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure may from along
the monsoon trough off northern Central America by mid week.
$$
GR
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From
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All on Tue Jun 8 14:27:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 081552
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave crosses western Panama with axis along 81W north
of 03N. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of
the wave axis.
A tropical wave is along 101W from 04N to 15N. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 09N to 15N between 100W and 102W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 09N90W to
1010 mb low pressure centered near 12N111W to 10N122W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N122W to 07N140W. In addition to the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 92W and
97W. Similar convection is from 09N to 11N between 102W and 105W,
and from 12N to 14N between 113W and 115W. Scatterred moderate
convection is from 05N to 10N W of 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong SW winds may be pulsing into the northern Gulf
of California this morning due to a tight pressure gradient
between high pressure west of the region and low pressure over
the lower Colorado River. Winds and seas will diminish through
the morning as the low pressure weakens. Light breezes and
slight seas are noted elsewhere over the Gulf of California.
Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California, with 6 to 8 ft
seas in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia, and 4 to 6 ft seas off
Baja California Sur. Farther south, light to gentle breezes
persist off southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW
swell.
For the forecast, the NW swell off Baja California Norte will
subside through tonight. However, winds will increase to
moderate to fresh off Baja California beginning on Wed as high
pressure builds in the wake of a weak trough moving across the
region. Additional pulses of NW swell will reach the waters
north of Punta Eugenia Wed night through Fri building seas to 8
ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system drifts northwestward
or northward. Regardless of development, this system could produce
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
later this week and into the weekend. The Tropical Weather Outlook
states that this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 5 days. See products from your local meteorological
service for more information.
Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N E of
84W and is mainly associated with a tropical wave that crosses
western Panama. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of the
monsoon trough E of 90W. Light to gentle breezes persist north
of the monsoon trough in the offshore waters from Nicaragua to
Guatemala. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds
prevail. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore waters.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located near 12N111W.
This system is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity
well west of its center. Significant development of this system
is not expected due to strong upper-level winds and dry air in
the surrounding environment. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days.
Visible satellite imagery is still showing a well defined swirl
of low clouds near 14N125W associated with the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Blanca.
Elsewhere a weak ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west
of 115W, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the
region. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of
the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the
6 to 7 ft range.
$$
GR
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From
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All on Wed Jun 9 13:45:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 091608
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 84W-85W extending from coastal Honduras
and Nicaragua across Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific.
Associated moisture and scattered convection is occurring across
the Caribbean with and behind the wave, and along the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.
A tropical wave is along 104W-105W south of 15N. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection described below is along
the monsoon trough, and ahead of the wave between 107W and 110W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 09N83W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 11.5N93W to 11N100W to 1011 mb low pressure near
12.5N113W to 10N123W. The ITCZ reaches from 10N123W to 11N133W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 02N to
09N between 78W and 88W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 88W and 105W.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 15N between 105W and 116W. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 05N to 08.5N between 135W and
141.5W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Generally moderate N-NW winds persist over the offshore waters
of Baja California, except for small areas of 20 kt winds across
the Baja Norte waters just north of 30N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
lingering NW swell, with a few small areas to 8 ft per overnight
altimeter data. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas persist
across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from
Michoacan to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke
and haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to
gentle breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas persist off southern Mexico.
Building high pressure west of the area will support moderate to
fresh NW winds off Baja California and building seas off the
Baja California coast north of Cabo Lazaro starting tonight and
then diminishing by Sat. Light to gentle breeze will persist off
southern Mexico, with moderate SW swell.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
1011 mb low pressure was analyzed along the monsoon trough well
off the coast of El Salvador near 11.5N93W. This pattern is
supporting moderate SE to E winds off El Salvador and Guatemala,
which are converging with NE winds draining off the coast to
support a line of showers and thunderstorms about 150 nm off the
coast from roughly the Gulf of Papagayo to off western
Guatemala. Light to gentle SW breezes are evident elsewhere off
Central America. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most areas.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El
Salvador, and Guatemala by Thursday. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week or over the weekend
as the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week
and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological
service for more information. Elsewhere, farther south, a new
round of large, long-period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters
by Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Ridging dominates the waters north of 20N west of 115W,
maintaining gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas in NW
swell.
A broad upper trough extends roughly from 30N130W to 24N144W.
Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this upper trough is
supporting a weak surface trough from 06N to 12N between 132W and
134W, which shows up well in an overnight scatterometer
satellite pass from around 06 UTC, which also showed fresh NW
winds within 120 nm west of the trough. A concurrent altimeter
satellite pass indicated seas starting to approach 8 ft in this
area. A few showers are noted near this trough as well.
A small 1011 mb low pressure area persists near 12.5N113W.
Thunderstorms have been flaring for a few hours on the west side
of this low. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted from 05N to 20N west of 110W. Moderate to fresh SW
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident east of 110W.
A ridge will build across the northern forecast waters during
the next few days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in
moderate to locally fresh trade winds roughly N of the ITCZ to
about 20N and W of 125W through at least Fri, with seas of 5 to 8
ft. Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will
support increased SW winds and building seas over the waters
mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the week.
$$
Stripling
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From
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All on Thu Jun 10 13:30:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 101441
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of tropical wave is near 90/91W north of 03N. Scattered
moderate convection is observed N of 10N within 210 nm west of
the wave axis.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure
centered near 12N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from
09N125W to 08N130W to 09N135W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N between 81W and 90W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 90W
and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N
between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 114W and 120W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between
138W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong NW winds prevail off Baja California Norte with
seas to 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle winds and slight seas persist
across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from
Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke and
haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to
gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist off southern Mexico.
Divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough is
supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms in the offshore
waters of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero.
For the forecast, A trough of low pressure is located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or
early next week while the system drifts generally northward.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week
and into early next week. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, high
pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds
off Baja California and building seas in NW swell off the Baja
California coast north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light NE winds prevail north of 10N, with light to gentle W to
SW breezes south of 10N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most
areas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted mainly off
Guatemala and Nicaragua.
For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to
form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern
Mexico and Guatemala during the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some gradual development
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend
while the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend.
See products from your local meteorological service for more
information. Elsewhere, light and variable winds will prevail
north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SW winds south of 10N. A
new round of long- period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters
by Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1010 mb area of low pressure persists near 12N115W, embedded
within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 210 nm west and 90 nm east of the low.
Gentle to moderate winds surround the low. Some gradual development
is possible over the next few days as the system moves slowly
westward.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted from 10N
to 15N west of 135W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area.
Moderate to fresh NE winds persist elsewhere north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Gentle to moderate SE winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted south
of the ITCZ, while gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of
the monsoon trough.
Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will
support increased W to SW winds and building seas over the
waters mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the
week.
$$
AL
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jun 20 06:54:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 200852
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0810 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Dolores is well inland and centered near 23.5N
103.7W at 0900 UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with
gusts to 30 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted in bands extending southward from the center to 16N
between 101W and 104W. The remnant circulation of Dolores is ill
defined and is considered dissipated. These remnants will
continue to move N over western Mexico Sun. Previously impacted
marine areas continue to see an improvement in marine
conditions, and seas along the coast where Dolores entered land
have subsided to 7-8 ft. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which
could result in life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 89/90W north of 02N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted N of 10.5N between 87W and 91W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 10N91W to 16N102W to
10N120W to 10N133W. ITCZ extends from 10N134 to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 14N E of
99W, and from 06N to 09N between 131W and 140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and
180 nm S of trough axis between 102W and 120W, and from 16N to
the coast between 101W and 104W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Dolores.
Elsewhere, a surface trough has dissipated just west of 125W. A
weak pressure gradient prevails across the Baja waters east of
the former trough with gentle to moderate northwest winds over
the forecast waters. Wave heights remain in the 5-7 ft range. A
surface ridge will build modestly across the area Sun and Mon.
Mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail
into Tue.
In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S to SW winds
currently prevail across the northern Gulf with wave heights of
3 ft or less. However southerly winds have begun to increase
across the south portions of the Gulf and are expected spread to
northward across central and north portions overnight and persist
through Sun evening as the pressure gradient tightens between
the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and low pressure over
north-central Mexico. Wave heights are expected to build to 4-6
ft across open Gulf waters today with these fresh to strong winds.
Winds and seas are expected decrease by Tuesday.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell.
Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue over
the offshore waters S of 10N, with variable winds north of 10N.
Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo each
of the next few nights. New SW swell crossing the equatorial
waters will reach the offshore waters by sunrise to raise seas
to 6-8 ft through Mon night, then slowly subside Tue through
Wed.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough has dissipated from 28N125W to near 21N130W. A
high pressure ridge is across the waters west of this trough
centered on a 1029 mb high near 40N142W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the
monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of
the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 122W. A tighter
pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the trough
remnants is supporting fresh northerly winds north of 27N and
west of the trough, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to
moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough.
Southerly swell has propagated northward across the equatorial
waters and has reached near 12N this morning. This swell will
continue to spread north-northeastward through Sun reaching as
far as 17N. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to
be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early next
week.
$$
Stripling
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jun 20 18:16:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 201924
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
08N to 15N between 90W and 100W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 11N109W to 10N133W.
ITCZ extends from 10N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 88W,
and from 06N to 09N between 126W and 140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm N and 180 nm S of trough axis
between 102W and 120W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Baja waters with
gentle to moderate northwest winds over the forecast waters. Wave
heights remain in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will build
modestly across the area into Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate
northwest to north winds will prevail into Tue.
In the Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong SE winds are
occurring. These will prevail through tonight before diminishing.
Wave heights are 4 to 6 ft.
Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late this week, and some gradual development is
possible while it moves WNW parallel and offshore southern
Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell.
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across
the entire forecast area through Wed, then the pressure gradient
will gradually relax with a gentle SW breeze continuing through
Sat night. Long period S swell in the form of 5 to 8 ft seas
currently across the area will subside through the day, with
seas less than 8 ft everywhere by Wed afternoon.
Looking ahead, low pressure may develop south of Guatemala late
this week, and some gradual development is possible as the system
moves WNW.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A high pressure ridge is across the waters is centered on a 1029
mb high near 40N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough
to near 20N and west of 122W. A tighter pressure gradient between
the surface ridge and the trough remnants is supporting fresh
northerly winds north of 27N and west of the trough, with seas in
the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail south of
the monsoon trough.
Southerly swell has propagated northward across the equatorial
waters and has reached near 14N today. This swell will continue
to spread north-northeastward into tonight, reaching as far as
17N. Wave heights generated by this swell are expected to be in
the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside early in the week.
$$
KONARIK
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Jun 22 16:49:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 221600
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N to Honduras along 87W-88W,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 88W and 92W. Global
models suggest that an area of low pressure associated with this
wave is likely to form in a few days, south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this
weekend. This disturbance is expected to move generally
west-northwestward, and could be near the coast of southern Mexico
by the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N along 103W-104W, moving
west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N to 14N between 105W and 108W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 12N128W. ITCZ extends from 12N128W to beyond 07N140W. In
addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 06N to 10N between 90W and 120W. Scattered moderate
convection is also evident within 60 nm north and 150 nm south
of the ITCZ.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak pressure gradient persists across the Baja California
peninsula offshore waters supporting gentle to locally moderate
NW winds. Recent ship observations and altimeter satellite data
from around 14 UTC indicate that wave heights remain in the 4-7
ft range. These conditions will prevail through Thu. Winds will
increase across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu
into the weekend as a ridge shift eastward and builds across the
region.
In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SE
winds will prevail through early in the weekend. Wave heights
will be in the 3 to 4 ft range during that period.
Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico in the next few days
and move W-NW or parallel along the Mexican coast through the
weekend. A tropical depression is likely to develop from this
system. an area of low pressure is expected to develop south of
southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or into the weekend as this systems moves WNW, or
parallel and offshore southern Mexico. Winds to gale force are
possible off Guerrero and Michoacan from Fri night through Sat
night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough, except where stronger winds are occurring near very
active convection associated with a tropical wave. Elsewhere
light to gentle variable winds generally prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Seas continue in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell.
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough through Wed, while moderate SE to E winds prevail
north of the trough. Long period SW swell across the regional
waters will gradually subside through Wed.
Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to develop south of
Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu, increasing winds to
moderate to fresh. Gradual development is likely as the system
moves WNW and offshore of southern Mexico, and a tropical
depression could form offshore of southeastern Mexico by this
weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N and west
of 125W and is centered on a 1028 mb high near 38N144W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of 08N and west of 120W. A 1012 mb low is
along the monsoon trough along 12N128W and is nearly stationary.
Earlier scatterometer data showed NE winds 15-20 kt within 150
nm across the NW semicircle of the low. A concurrent altimeter
satellite pass just west of the low indicated seas to 7 ft. This
is indicative of mainly moderate SW winds prevailing south of
the monsoon trough with seas ranging between 5 to 7 ft in
southerly swell. Wave heights are expected be 6 to 8 ft across
the tropical waters near the ITCZ west of 130W later in the week,
with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
$$
Christensen
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From
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All on Sat Jun 26 08:55:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 260929
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Hurricane Enrique is centered near 16.7N 104.7W at 26/0900 UTC
moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous moderate scattered strong within 120 nm of the center
of Enrique. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted elsewhere from 04N to 22N between 100W and 109W. Enrique
is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest
tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading
through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is
expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. The outer
rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across
portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days,
which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N99W. It resumes
west of Enrique near 14N110W to 07N126W. The ITCZ continues from
07N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 17N and east of 100W, and from 06N to 16N between 110W and
127W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of
the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of Baja California,
4-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less over the
Gulf of California.
For the forecast, Hurricane Enrique will move to 16.9N 105.5W
this afternoon, 17.5N 106.1W Sun morning, 18.5N 106.4W Sun
afternoon, 19.5N 107.1W Mon morning, 20.2N 107.8W Mon afternoon,
and 20.7N 108.5W Tue morning. Enrique will weaken to a tropical
storm near 21.5N 109.5W by early Wed. Elsewhere high pressure
will build into the Baja California waters through early Sat to
freshen winds across north and central portions.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate gap winds pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong NW winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec area on Mon as the pressure gradient
intensifies. Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail elsewhere
N of the monsoon trough along 10N. South of the monsoon trough,
gentle to moderate winds are noted between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft
prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate SW swell will impact the waters off
Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica through
today before fresh swell arrives tonight into Sat raising seas
through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will
persist.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered
on a 1024 mb high near 31N141W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas over this area
area in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south
of the monsoon trough and east of 120W, with gentle to moderate
winds west of 120W. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over this area.
$$
ERA
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Jun 26 16:58:00 2021
AXPZ20 KNHC 262104
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Hurricane Enrique is centered near 17.3N 105.9W at 26/2100 UTC
moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
Numerous moderate scattered strong within 60 nm of the center of
Enrique. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 101W and 113W. Enrique is
moving on a west- northwest track and is forecast to make a turn
to the northwest this evening. On the forecast track, the core of
Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The
outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which could cause life- threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory
at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N94W to 12N98W. It
resumes west of Enrique near 13N109W to 08N125W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N east of
90W, and from 03N to 16N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 105W
and 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the section above for details on Hurricane Enrique.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of Baja California. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of
the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range west of Baja California,
4-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less over the
Gulf of California.
For the forecast, Hurricane Enrique near 17.3N 105.9W will move
to 17.9N 105.9W Sun morning, 19.0N 106.3W Sun afternoon, 19.9N
106.8W Mon morning, 20.4N 107.3W Mon afternoon, weaken to a
tropical storm near 21.1N 108.0W Tue morning, and 21.8N 108.7W
Tue afternoon. Enrique will change little in intensity as it
moves to near 22.9N 110.1W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, high
pressure will prevail west of Baja California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with
light winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft
range between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador in SW swell. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh SW swell will prevail over the waters
between the Galapagos and Ecuador through the weekend before
slowly subsiding. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will
persist.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered
on a 1023 mb high near 32N141W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 10N and
west of 120W. Seas over this area area in the 4-6 ft range.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and
east of 115W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas
are in the 4-7 ft range over this area.
$$
AL
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