WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 147.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.8S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.4E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL AS THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHEARED FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION, COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS, AND TRIANGULATION FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS ANALYSIS OF
PGTW T2.5/3.0 (DATA T OF 1.5) AND ABOM T2.0/2.5, AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25KT+ WITH UPPER LEVEL
WINDS DIAMETRICALLY AGAINST THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS, RESULTING
IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LLC. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODERATE POLEWARD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C), THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO RE-CONSOLIDATE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THE REMNANTS OF
TC 11P WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12
FEET.//
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