WTIO30 FMEE 181848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 53.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 390 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVES
TOWARDS A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION LEAVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS CLOSE
TO 3.5-. SCATSAT DATA FROM 1630UTC PROVIDE WINDS REACHING 45KT IN THE
NORTHERN SECTOR OF ELOISE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION
OF 45KT LEAVING ELOISE AT THE UPPER THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM. BEING IN A PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION, ELOISE SHOULD NOT BE LONG
IN PASSING THE 50KT THRESHOLD.

THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES OF 1253UTC ALLOWED TO RELOCATE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE RSMC. THE
SYSTEM WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON
THE NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS IT. AN ACCELERATION IS ALSO AWAITED ADVANCING THE DATE OF
LANDING ON MADAGASCAR OF NEARLY 6 HOURS. TRANSITING THEN ON LAND FOR
NEARLY 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL COME BACK TO SEA STILL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS SOUTH-WEST TRACK,
ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE AFRICAN COAST WITHIN 5 DAYS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED,
LEAVING ELOISE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION. EASTERLY
SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
PRESENT AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, ELOISE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDING. BY THURSDAY, ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID REINTENSIFICATION.

ON APPROACH TO MADAGASCAR, ELOISE IS DEFINED AS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM
WITH HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVE AND SURGE
PHENOMENA. THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF
THE NEXT EVENTS THROUGH THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)