AXAU01 APRF 011356
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1356 UTC 01/03/2021

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.2S
Longitude: 89.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [232 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 170 nm [315 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 01/1800: 18.3S 89.4E: 035 [065]: 080 [150]: 959
+12: 02/0000: 18.4S 89.4E: 040 [075]: 075 [140]: 962
+18: 02/0600: 18.4S 89.5E: 045 [080]: 075 [140]: 962
+24: 02/1200: 18.6S 89.8E: 045 [085]: 070 [130]: 968
+36: 03/0000: 18.7S 90.5E: 050 [090]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 03/1200: 19.5S 91.5E: 065 [115]: 060 [110]: 977
+60: 04/0000: 20.4S 92.7E: 080 [150]: 055 [100]: 981
+72: 04/1200: 21.6S 93.9E: 100 [180]: 050 [095]: 984
+96: 05/1200: 24.3S 95.6E: 140 [265]: 045 [085]: 986
+120: 06/1200: 26.8S 96.7E: 210 [390]: 040 [075]: 988

REMARKS:
Marian has been located using EIR and microwave imagery. It has an eye but this has started to become a bit raggered and warmer over the last 6 hours. No new bursts of deep cold convection have occured around the eye in the last 4 hours. Position accuracy is still high with an eye visible.

DVK eye pattern with LG surrounding temperature with a OW eye in LG surround, yields DT of 5.0. The eye has started to become a little raggered in the EIR over the last 6 hours and with a diameter of about 40nm. A steady trend was applied resulting in a MET of 5.0, PAT agrees. FT based on PAT. SATCON estimates
from 0335 UTC continue to show elevated values with 1-min winds at 100 knots. ADT 1-min estimates are fluctuating more between 80 and 100 knots. The intensity is held at 80 knots, slightly below objective guidance due to the warming in the cold cloud and the lowering of the DT.

Gale and storm radii analysed from 0220 UTC ASCAT pass.

CIMSS analysed shear at 1/0900 UTC was 5 knots from the east-northeast which has
remained steady. Conditions are expected to remain similar over the next 6 to 12
hours and the system may hold it's intensity before starting to weaken during Tuesday. The system is likely to continue to be slow moving overnight before taking a track to the southeast on Tuesday.

SST's are cooler to the south, with sub 26 degrees south of about 18S. From Tuesday the shear starts to increase and dry air, while not yet becoming entrained is surrounding the system. These conditions will assist in the system weakening as it moves further south. The circulation is expected to remain at TC strength over open waters for the next 4-6 days.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1930 UTC.
$$

UTC.
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