AXAU01 APRF 281800
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1759 UTC 28/02/2021

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.7S
Longitude: 90.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 961 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 01/0000: 17.9S 90.5E: 035 [065]: 085 [155]: 953
+12: 01/0600: 18.1S 90.2E: 040 [080]: 085 [155]: 952
+18: 01/1200: 18.3S 90.0E: 045 [085]: 085 [155]: 952
+24: 01/1800: 18.4S 89.8E: 045 [080]: 085 [155]: 951
+36: 02/0600: 18.6S 89.9E: 045 [085]: 080 [150]: 956
+48: 02/1800: 18.7S 90.7E: 060 [115]: 075 [140]: 962
+60: 03/0600: 19.1S 91.7E: 085 [155]: 070 [130]: 966
+72: 03/1800: 19.7S 92.9E: 105 [190]: 065 [120]: 970
+96: 04/1800: 21.6S 95.5E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 981
+120: 05/1800: 23.8S 97.3E: 205 [380]: 045 [085]: 984

REMARKS:
Marian has been located using EIR imagery throughout the evening, with a clear eye present confidence in the location is high. Over the last 3 to 4 hours the cloud tops temperatures surrounding the eye have warmed and the DT number has dropped slightly.

DVK eye pattern with DG surrounding temperature with a WMG eye in MG surround yields DT of 4.5. The eye has been relatively symmetric in appearance most of the time but is reasonably large with a diameter of about 40nm. A trend of D was
applied to get a MET of 5.0, PAT is also at 5.0. SATCON estimates continue to show elevated values with 1-min winds at 110 knots. ADT 1-min estimates are also
over 100 knots. The 10-minute intensity is held at 80 knots, slightly below objective guidance due to the warming in the cold cloud and the lowering of the DT.

CIMSS analysed shear at 28/1500 UTC was 10 knots from the east-northeast which has decreased over the last 6 hours. More favourable conditions are expected for
the system overnight with a continued decreasing trend in shear, and system motion is likely to slow. Intensification is still expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. The system is likely to be slow moving for a period on Monday before taking a track to the southeast on Tuesday.

SST's are cooler to the south, with sub 26 degrees south of about 18S. This could limit development from Monday and then assist in the system weakening as it moves further south. The circulation is expected to remain at TC strength over open waters for the next 5-7 days.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0130 UTC.
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