ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZJAN2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 18JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1095 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 18JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 56.6E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.6S 35.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 36.4E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR), SUPPORTED BY A 161607Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT
TO SEA WITH A LARGE AREA OF UNSTRUCTURED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING
OFFSET BY CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
OVER WATER AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY, BEFORE IT MAKES A SOUTHWARD
TURN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.7S 37.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S 37.5E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM NORTHEAST OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR), SUPPORTED BY A 171632Z MHS NOAA 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST ABOVE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 93S IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 18FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 37.7E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM WEST OF EUROPA
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 180900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 232300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/232300Z-241800ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.7S 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY 526 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231900Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C)
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 116.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 110.3E, APPROXIMATELY
523 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 241147Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(<15KTS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 125.2E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM EAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) AND A 291315Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS OVER LAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) ARE VERY WARM (30-31C), PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT INVEST 98S TRACKS OVER WATER. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS, CONSOLIDATES, AND
LATER ON MOVE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 13S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.5S 77.3E, APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST OF PORT MANTHURIN, MAURITIUS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 291332Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S IS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MARGINAL (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK
WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 301530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/301530Z-301800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST REMNANTS 13S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 69.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 516 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301141Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S
IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (27-
28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 114
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300838Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AND
DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /301800Z-311800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST REMNANTS 13S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 69.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 516 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301141Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S
IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (27-
28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 114
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300838Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AND
DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 02FEB21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.6S 115.1E, APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 021500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03FEB21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.9S 114.5E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04FEB21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 041500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 81.3E, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 041345Z SSMIS 91 GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
ONLY TO BE OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050752ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 81.3E, APPROXIMATELY 616 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 050900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 597 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115
KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 070900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 08FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 81.5E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 769 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 120100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/120100Z-121800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111952ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 11FEB21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 884NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.8S 37.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 23.2E, APPROXIMATELY 92
NM NORTH OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED
AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION , GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH
TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 111901Z MHS NOAA 89H GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE EAST WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE 111954Z ASCAT(METOP-C) PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH 30-35KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLC
AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), BURGEONING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, MAINTAINING AN ASYMTETRIC
WINDFIELD, BEFORE ENCOUNTERING LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH
MINIMAL OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE
FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER
TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM AND REASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. AREA IS NOW LOCATED
IN PARA 2.C.(1).//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 12FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1408 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 120900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130752ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 13FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 80.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1269 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 130900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.8S 32.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 33.8E, APPROXIMATELY 127
NM NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTED BY
THE 151620Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 93S IS CURRENTLY
OVERLAND EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THERE ARE WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT OFF THE COAST IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 93S WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITHIN 36 HOURS,
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL; HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY 93S REMAINS
TO THE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250321ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 110.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 104.4E, APPROXIMATELY
768 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 251225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OFFSET BY THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS).
STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
250330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 26FEB21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 97.0E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60
KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 261500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 27FEB21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 271500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/281800ZFEB2021-011800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 28FEB21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 281500)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 01MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 02MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031352ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1235 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 65.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 67.4E, APPROXIMATELY 576
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031428Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/041500Z-041800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041353ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041352ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 041500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 04MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 593 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 67.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2S 42.2E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH. A 041035Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISTINCTLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. A 040650Z METOP-C
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF ELEVATED (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION,
POSSIBLY JUST REACHING WARNING CRITERIA, BEFORE MOVING OVER
MADAGASCAR, REINTENSIFYING AND ATTAINING WARNING THRESHOLD AFTER
MOVING BACK OUT TO SEA IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS A LOW.
UPDATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) WITH WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 75.5E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 05MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1036 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S 42.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 44.6E, APPROXIMATELY 173
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A
051542Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BUILDING CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MADAGASCAR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/060400Z-061800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051953ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060152ZMAR2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05MAR21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 604 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 06MAR21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 25.8S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1S 44.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 48.1E, APPROXIMATELY 104
NM SOUTHWEST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060255Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION OVER LAND WITHOUT A CLEAR
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, 91S IS POISED TO EXIT INTO THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL
CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED WITH FINAL WARNING FOR TC 22S
IN PARA 2.A.(2) AND UPDATED INFO FOR INVEST 91S IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 78.0E, APPROXIMATELY 634 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 060900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 06MAR21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 25.8S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1S 44.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 53E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061528Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING MARGINAL
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/062230Z-071800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZMAR2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06MAR21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 78.9E, APPROXIMATELY 682 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
120 KNOTS GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 062100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 06MAR21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 25.8S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 53E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 53.9E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062025Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 061839Z METOP-
C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MUCH TIGHTER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C
$$
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ABIO10 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/072130Z-081800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071952ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07MAR21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 772 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 07MAR21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.4S 58.0E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS,
LA REUNION, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 072100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 53.0E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080752ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 08MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 27.0S 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 08MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 997 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 79.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1261 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 10MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 76.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1112 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 100900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110752ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 11MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 74.4E, APPROXIMATELY 631 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32
PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 12MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32
PGTW 120900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 13MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 726 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90
KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 130900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140752ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 14MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 736 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65
KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 140900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150752ZMAR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 795 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
150900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZMAR2021//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZMAR2021//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S
96.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1182 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS PROVIDE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS
OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FOR EXAMPLE,
PREDICTS ONLY MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WHILE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION PREDICTS MODERATE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2S 96.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211208Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
INVEST 95S IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL
MODELS PROVIDE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION,
FOR EXAMPLE, PREDICTS ONLY MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE NAVGEM AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS PREDICT MODERATE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH SYSTEM. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231511Z AMSU-B 89GHZ DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
231514Z METOP-B PERIPHERAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC
LLC WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING
95S, WITH UKMET, NAVGEM, AND CMC SHOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION, BUT OTHERS INDICATING THAT 95S WILL REMAIN BROAD
AND WEAK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231511Z AMSU-B 89GHZ DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
231514Z METOP-B PERIPHERAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC
LLC WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING
95S, WITH UKMET, NAVGEM, AND CMC SHOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION, BUT OTHERS INDICATING THAT 95S WILL REMAIN BROAD
AND WEAK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 273
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251045Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT
MARGINAL LOWER LEVEL TURNING WITH TWO DISTINCT POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 95S IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 90.8E, APPROXIMATELY 359
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 261242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOWER LEVEL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AREAS OF
CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET
BY WEAK TO MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 64.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.48S 64.55E, APPROXIMATELY 485
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A
261425Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LLCC THAT IS OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION.
A 261619Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29 TO
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
DISAGREEMENT OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 270930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/270930Z-271800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270851ZMAR21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 90.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 439
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A MASS OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
EXHIBITED PULSING BURSTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED WEST OF
THE LLCC AS A RESULT OF 10-15 KTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. HOWEVER, A
270533Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CIRCULATION THAT HAS SEEN
ITS RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND CONTRACT SUBSTANTIALLY TO AROUND 20 NM
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS ENCOMPASSING
THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HEALTHY UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
OBSERVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT NORTHEAST. INVEST 98S IS LOCATED IN
A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
29C AND LIGHT-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE A BAND OF DRY AIR
LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AT PRESENT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
MIXED OPINIONS ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH MOST SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF 98S IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS
DEPICT 98S WITH A BROADER AND WEAKER CIRCULATION THAN IS BEING
OBSERVED, SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE HIGHER. INVEST 98S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN TURN EASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY WIND BAND TO ITS NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 270900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NDIAN OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270851ZMAR21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 65.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 66..0E, APPROXIMATELY 421
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 271411Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. INVEST 98S IS IN A MOSTLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE MIXED OPINIONS ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH
MOST SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF 98S, BUT AGREEING THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
270900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 280930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/280930Z-281800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280851ZMAR21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 66.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 356
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS PULSED IN DISORGANIZED FASHION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS, AND HAS DEGRADED IN PRESENTATION. THE LLC REMAINS
DECOUPLED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO ITS SOUTHWEST DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KTS, WHICH IS NOW
INCREASING DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF
THE MALDIVES. A 280419Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES THAT THE VORTEX IS
LESS STOUT THAN 24 HOURS AGO, WITH THE MAX WIND BAND NO LONGER
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM'S ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND BECOMING LESS HOSPITABLE, DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING VWS AND A DRYING AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION INTO A SHORT-LIVED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE VORTEX AND WARM UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29C.
INVEST 98S IS EXPECTED TO SOON TURN EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD,
TOWARD THE VICINITY OF DIEGO GARCIA, FOLLOWING THE BELT OF STRONG
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD CIRCULATION WEST OF THE MALDIVES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) BASED ON
TCFA REISSUE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280851ZMAR21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 68.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATTELITE IMAGERY AND A 281357Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
PULSING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98S HAS MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-25KTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE REGARDING INTENSIFICATION BUT COLLECTIVELY SHOW 98S
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3S 69.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.6N 92.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OFFSET TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF BROAD,
ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 301431Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LACK OF CONSOLIDATION AND FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, INVEST 90B IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90B WILL MARGINALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHOUT
REACHING TC STRENGTH WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING THE VORTEX
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD YANGON, MYANMAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/311800ZMAR2021-011800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 93.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 94.5E, APPROXIMATELY 231 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310705Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OFFSET TO
THE WEST OF A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 90B IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 90B WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND REMAIN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 94.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 011128Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND AN
EXPOSED, ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 020830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/REISSUED/020830Z-021800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 94.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 011128Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND AN
EXPOSED, ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S
103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020010Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. 90S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30C, AND AMBIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY EXPECT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 48-
72 HOUR RANGE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4S 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 14 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAWU ISLAND,
INDONESIA. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN A BELT OF 20-25
KT EASTERLIES IN THE TIMOR SEA AND A BELT OF 30-35 KT WESTERLIES
NORTH OF THE SAVU SEA, AS ASSESSED FROM A 020146Z ASCAT-C PASS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS PATCHY AND DECENTRALIZED, BUT FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING
IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE SOUTHERN, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES. 99S IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
30C, AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH
OF TIMOR-LESTE IN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED A LOW AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1)
AND A MEDIUM AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(2).//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 97.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75
NM WEST OF KADAN, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING AN
ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSES
INDICATE INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 122.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75
NM WEST OF ROTE ISLAND, INDONESIA. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHERN CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC. 99S
IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (05-10KTS) VWS,
WARM SST OF 30C, AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 103.3E, APPROXIMATELY 144
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD, POORLY
DEFINED, AND ELONGATED LOW LLC. 90S IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (<15 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30C) SST.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 122.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY
209 NM NORTH OF BROWSE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031054Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL
IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WARPPING INTO AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031148Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A TIGHT LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99S WILL REMAIN QUASISTAIONARY AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 2 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 031400) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S 103.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 102.9E, APPROXIMATELY 168
NM WEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
031328Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED
AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SST, LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS, AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD, REMAINING
ELONGATED WHILE INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 040830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/040830Z-041800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040752ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 123.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 123.9E, APPROXIMATELY
242 NM NORTH OF BROWSE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040457Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 99S IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OURFLOW BEING OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION AS THE LLCC STAYS
NEAR THE ISLAND OF TIMOR-LESTE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99S WILL STRUGGLE TO FULLY CONSOLIDATE WHILE IT REMAINS NEAR
LAND; HOWEVER, AFTER IT BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING THRESHOLD WILL OCCUR IN 6 TO 18 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
031400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 102.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 105.2E, APPROXIMATELY
203 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040634Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
TIGHTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
REMAINS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 040246Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH ENHANCED (25 TO 30 KNOT) WINDS TURNING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ELONGATED LLCC AND WEAKER (5 TO 10
KNOT) WINDS CONSIGNED TO THE NORTH. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE HIGH TRACK SPEEDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OFFSETTING THE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S
WILL REMAIN ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND
INTENSIFIES, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 04800) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040752ZAPR2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 454 NM NORTH OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 041500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 105.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 104.9E, APPROXIMATELY
228 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041306Z SSMIS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE EAST. A 041310Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LLCC WITH A LARGE AREA OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL WIND FIELD
REMAINS LARGELY ASYMMETRIC. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL REMAIN ELONGATED
AND ASYMMETRIC WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, THE MODEL
FIELDS MAY NOT BE WELL REPRESENTING THE ACTUAL INITIAL CONDITIONS AS
EVIDENCED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 040800) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051352ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 105.3E, APPROXIMATELY 626 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 051500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 05APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 404 NM NORTH OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 051500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 106.0E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 061500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 06APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 061500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081352ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 08APR21 1500Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 106.2E, APPROXIMATELY 628 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 081500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 08APR21 1500Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 91.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF AN OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 91S IS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-25KTS) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 10APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 108.7E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60
KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 101500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 100.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY
314 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100959Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEAL DISORGANIZED CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100308Z ASCAT-B PASS
FURTHER OUTLINES THE STRUCTURE OF THE LLC STRETCHED FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (20-25KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 110930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/110930Z-111800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 11APR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 26.1S 112.0E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 110900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 101.6E HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND NO LONGER HAS MODEL
SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.//
NNNN
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111352ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 11APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.3S 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 111500) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZAPR2021//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 61.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 520
NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 191307Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME LOW LEVEL BANDING AND FLARING
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT NEAR
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 50.2E, APPROXIMATELY 410
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COMOROS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING
OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201534Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. INVEST 95S IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND
PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 47.8E, APPROXIMATELY 552 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 22APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S 45.1E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 221500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231352ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23APR21 1500Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4S 43.1E, APPROXIMATELY 668 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
231500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 242130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/242130Z-251800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241952ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24APR21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0S 39.0E, APPROXIMATELY 73 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DAR ES
SALAAM, TANZANIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 29S.//
NNNN
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /111800Z-121800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.0N 57.5E, NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 58.5E APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA, YEMEN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 111423Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED, AND BROAD CONVECTION TURNING OVER AN
OBSCURED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 92A IS IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /112800Z-131800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.3N 58.5E, NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 66.8E APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST
OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
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ABIO10 PGTW 131230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/REISSUED/131230Z-131800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131151ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530
NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 130826Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 131200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NDIAN/OCEAN/141800Z- 151800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI/141351ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 14MAY21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.9N 72.2E, APPROXIMATELY 828 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
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ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /151800Z-161800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15MAY21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 72.9E, APPROXIMATELY 707 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI,
PAKISTAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
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ABIO10 PGTW 160630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/160630Z-161800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 16MAY21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 72.9E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75
KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 160300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S
76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL POCKET OF
CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
160403Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH PRIMARILY
15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 152339Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 90S AND A CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
INVEST 90S WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE REMAINING ELONGATED
WITH A MARGINAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17MAY21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100
KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 171500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.8S 76.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 180530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/180530Z-181800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17MAY21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 172100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 01A.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /201800Z-211800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6S
62.8E, APPROXIMATELY 589 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 201225Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLC.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONNMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91S WILL LOSE STRENGTH AND
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

NNNN
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3S 64.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
---
þ SLMR 2.1a þ "­Beavis! ¨Donde esta su hall pass?"
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 220330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /CORRECTED/REISSUED/220330Z-221800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.1N 89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM,
INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1951Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION
AND BROAD VORTICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WESTERLY WIND BURST
ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT POSITION IS
UNCERTAIN, MODELS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PARA 1 AND 2 TITLES TO
REFLECT APPROPRIATE AREA.//
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 89.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 376
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 221024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93B WILL CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE REMAINING IN
THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 90.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 364
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 231012Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 231600Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS AND A
231149Z SMAP PASS INDICATE A BAND OF 35-40KT WINDS AT APPROXIMATELY
150NM FROM CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH
ROBUST OUTFLOW REMAINING IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST,
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). BASED ON THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS THE SYSTEM IS CATEGORIZED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
93B WILL CONTRACT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 231500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/REISSUED/241800Z-251800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24MAY21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.3N 89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 241500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260751ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 26MAY21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.6N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 260900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/311800ZMAY-011800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S 90.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 273
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011032Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 92E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
EAST OF COCO ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS A SINGULAR MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND A PARTIAL 021545Z 25KM ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
OBTUSE WIND FIELD WITH 30KTS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH SHAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(>30KTS) DOWNSTREAM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S
WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
WITH A MINIMAL WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)