WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.0S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.5S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.9S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.3S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.8S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.1S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 93.0E.
27FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM, WITH AN ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE AND MUCH WEAKER CONVECTION PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE EAST-SOUTHEAST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 271039Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF, AN
ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KTS. TC 22S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
A COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) OVER THE JAVA SEA, TO A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VWS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST,
WHILE STEADILY SLOWING AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 48 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH REACHES ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND
MOVES TO A POSITION DUE SOUTH OF THE TC. BY TAU 72, THE STR TO THE
SOUTH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER NER
TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE, PUSHING TC 22S ONTO AN
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KTS AS VWS DECREASES AND THE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE
OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, SSTS
WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER AS MODELS DISPLAY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SHIFT IN THE STEERING
MECHANISM AROUND TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48, THEN JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. HOWEVER,
IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z AND 281500Z.//
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