WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 147.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 147.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.5E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR DEPICT DECAYING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN 181059Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
35-40 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS AND ALSO
SUPPORTS THE ABRUPT EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST, THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND HAS DE-COUPLED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER) BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY
TAU 24. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR
MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
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