WTXS21 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 97.4E TO 14.3S 95.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S 97.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S
97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM EAST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
131541Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTENING CENTER.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 27KTS WITH SLP 1004MB (3MB 24HR PRESSURE
DECREASE). A 131425Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LLCC WITH 20-
25 KNOT WRAPPING WINDS AND SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142200Z.//
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WTXS22 PGTW 040800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351Z APR 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 104.8E TO 15.8S 107.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 105.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 102.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 105.2E, APPROXIMATELY
203 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040634Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
TIGHTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
REMAINS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 040246Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH ENHANCED (25 TO 30 KNOT) WINDS TURNING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ELONGATED LLCC AND WEAKER (5 TO 10
KNOT) WINDS CONSIGNED TO THE NORTH. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE HIGH TRACK SPEEDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OFFSETTING THE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S
WILL REMAIN ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND
INTENSIFIES, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050800Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 031400) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 123.8E.//
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