WTIO30 FMEE 120603
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 48/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 55.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2021/01/13 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NO CHANGE ABOUT THE REMNANT LOW DANILO : IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD GRADUALLY TAKING A WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX CAN BE CLEARLY TRACKED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WITH WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 20KT MEASURED BY THE 0358UTC ASCAT SWATH.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF DALINO. THE DALINO SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRESENT IN ITSELF A NOTABLE RISK AND IT IS THE EFFECT OF THE RELIEF
OF THE NEARBY ISLANDS THAT COULD INDUCE MORE MARKED PRECIPITATION IN
THESE AREAS. THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE AND THE
LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO THE
CYCLOLYSIS OF DANILO DURING THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS.

THE POPULATIONS OF THE MAURITIUS ISLANDS AND THE REUNION ARE INVITED
TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

THIS RSMC BULLETIN IS THE LASTEST ON THIS SYSTEM.
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