WTIO30 FMEE 101309
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 59.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2021/01/13 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED WEAK, IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT OF
DANILO. THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL VORTEX
STILL VISIBLE, IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNING ASCAT SWATH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, DANILO IS
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MASCARENES. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING DANILO IN THE VICINITY OF MAURITIUS TONIGHT AND
REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT, A BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD DEVELOP POLEWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDES UPPER TROUGH WITHIN A SLIGHTLY LESS DRY ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT GIVEN THE DIURNAL CYCLE OVER SEA.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DISAPPEARS. WITHIN THESE
POORLY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE
BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER GROUNDS. HOWEVER THESE THREATS WILL BE TIGHTLY RELATED TO THE
REAL TRACK OF THIS PHENOMENA. A SOUTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY TO REDUCE
THE EFFECTS OF DANILO.
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