WTIO30 FMEE 091818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 62.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, DANILO'S SAT PRESENTATION DID NOT EVOLVE WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERING NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CONVECTION IS STRONGER IN THE
SOUTH-EAST, ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
AND THE TRADE WINDS. DANILO'S CENTER IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER OMM
BUOY 5601578 WHICH MEASURES 1003HPA. THE ASCAT-B SWATH COVERS A LARGE
PART OF DANILO'S CIRCULATION AND DOES NOT SHOW NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
ANY MORE.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, DANILO IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
MASCARENES. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING DANILO IN THE NORTHERN VICINITY
OF THE MASCARENES : MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR LA
REUNION. THE LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAVE ALL SLIGHTLY SHIFTED
NORTHWARD, AWAY FROM THE MASCARENES.

IN THE SHORT TERM, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PREVENTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY, A BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE APPEARS
POLEWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDES UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME LESS DRY. HOWEVER, THE MOST
RECENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE DO NOT FORECAST ANY REINTENSIFICATION ANY
MORE, EVEN TEMPORARY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DISAPPEARS. WITHIN THESE
UNCONDUCIVE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE BETWEEN LA
REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES THIS WEEK-END. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24
HOURS.

- FOR MAURITIUS-LA REUNION, DANILO SHOULD TRACK CLOSE, OR EVEN OVER,
THESE ISLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY
(AWAY FROM LA REUNION). THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITERD
TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE WEATHER FORECASTS ISSUED BY THEIR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.
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