Mesoscale Discussion 0074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
Areas affected...portions of west-central and southwest Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 131424Z - 131730Z
SUMMARY...An area of convectively enhanced winter precipitation has
developed in the Fort Stockton, TX vicinity and will shift
northeastward this morning.
DISCUSSION...An area of elevated convection (evidenced by occasional
lightning) has developed over the past hour or two across elevated
terrain in southwest Texas this morning. The convection was aided
by lift from a compact shortwave trough located over northern
Mexico. This wave was moving southeastward this morning and models
suggest it should stay south of the Rio Grande most of the day. The
convection is rooted atop a very cold, shallow near-surface airmass
which should aid in freezing of precipitation as it reaches the
surface. Local accumulations may exceed 0.05 in/hour where heavier
convective showers occur.
Over time, this band of convection will redevelop east-southeastward
in tandem with the progression of the upstream wave, though some
uncertainty exists with respect to it's longevity. The area of
convection is not particularly well handled in the models so far
this morning (outside of the 00Z European/EC), and it is possible
that the area of precipitation may weaken in the next 1-2 hours.