WTIO30 FMEE 130028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 80.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE A LOT.
IT NOW DISPLAYS A MORE CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CLOSE
TO THE BORDER OF THE CDO. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY 2011Z AMSR2 SWATH.
INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 45KT IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.

FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF SWIFT
WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE WITH NO MONSOON FEEDING AND A WEAK POLAR
CONVERGENCE AT LONG RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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