WTIO30 FMEE 101837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 85.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 95

120H: 2021/02/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF FARAJI REMAINED
IN A CDO PATTERN, WITH TOPS THAT REMAIN QUITE COLD. AN EYE STARTER
THAT CAN EVEN BE SEEN IN THE LAST MOMENTS. AT FIRST GLANCE, IT SEEMS
THAT FARAJI RESISTS WELL BUT THE LAST AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES OF
1559UTC SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION,
ALREADY NOTED DURING THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
CDO GIVES A VALUE OF 5.0 LEAVING WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 80KT.

FARAJI HAS STARTED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF HIS
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST GUIDED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE SPEED OF THE WEAKENING AND THE
TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES OBSERVED BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES. THEREAFTER, AS THE GUIDING FLOW GRADUALLY DESCENDS INTO
THE LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER THE
TRACK, THE ORIENTATION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL BE MORE
MARKED. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
AS THE RIDGE PIVOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST SECTOR IS STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY AFFECTING THE
STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX BY BRINGING DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD
ALREADY BE WELL ABOVE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE
AFTERWARDS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALSO REMAINS OMNIPRESENT EVEN IF IT
WEAKENS DURING THE PERIOD. THUS, THE AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE A
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, PROBABLY UP TO THE
STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE
IN DIVERGENCE, LESS DRY AIR AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL SURFACE, A REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. AS A
CONSEQUENCE, THE RSMC FORECAST GOES BACK TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
AT 5 DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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