WTIO30 FMEE 091813
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 84.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65

120H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 195 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD PATTERN KEPT ON DETERIORATING WITH
SOME SHORT APPEARANCES OF A WARM SPOT MATERAILIZING THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, ON THE EASTERN HALF OF A CDO ASSOCIATED TO VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. THE 1218Z SMAP SWATH SUGGESTED A MAX WINDS OF 95KT. THE 1305Z
GMI IMAGE STILL SHOWS A WELL-CONSTITUTED INNER CORE STRUCTURE, WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, AS WELL AS A CLEAR
NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT BETWEEN THE 89GHZ AND 37GHZ IMAGES.

FARAJI CURRENTLY TRACKS SOUTH-EASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
U-TURN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, AS THE STEERING FLOW COMES DOWN TO LOWER
LEVELS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROGRESSIVELY TAKES OVER. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO, BETWEEN A TIGHT TURN
SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A WIDER TURN FORECASTED BY UKMO AND GFS. THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING SPEED AND THE TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS
THESE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE MAIN GUIDANCES.

FARAJI CURRENTLY UNDERGOES A MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT AFFECTS
THE VERTICALITY OF THE VORTEX AND BRINGS DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INNER CORE. THE MID-SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY VANISH FROM
THURSDAY BUT DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE WELL IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTER AND MAINTAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARAJI
ALSO TRACKS ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF A MODERATE UPPER SHEAR AREA ON
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, THAT MAY AFFECT IT TEMPORARILY. THUS, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOISTER
MID-LEVELS, A REINTENSIFICATION BEGINS TO BE SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY PARTICULAR THREAT FOR THE INHABITED
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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