WTPS11 NFFN 091200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 091354 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 178.5W
AT 091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 265 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM TD09F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH NO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE.
THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.



FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 24.3S 177.7W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 27.3S 176.9W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 30.3S 175.7W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 33.1S 174.0W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 09F.
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)