ACUS02 KWNS 141652
SWODY2
SPC AC 141650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the North Carolina Outer Banks
Friday evening.

...Synopsis...

A closed synoptic upper low centered over the mid-MS Valley Friday
morning will slowly shift eastward across the OH and TN Valleys by
Saturday morning. At the surface, an occluding low will weaken over
the mid-MS Valley, with a cold front stretching from the Lake
Michigan vicinity toward the central Appalachians to the central
Gulf Coast during the morning. A secondary low is expected to
develop near the mid-Atlantic coast, and the surface cold front will
continue to shift east through the period, eventually moving
offshore the Atlantic seaboard overnight.

Moisture return ahead of the front will be minimal. However, bands
of showers are likely across parts of the southeastern states to the Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance suggests a narrow corridor of 50s F
dewpoints will stretch from the FL peninsula northward along the
SC/NC coasts during the evening. A few lightning flashes are
possible near the Outer Banks of NC during the evening, but most
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop offshore over the
warmer Gulf Stream waters where better moisture and deeper buoyancy
will exist.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 151703
SWODY2
SPC AC 151702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A synoptic upper low over the OH/TN Valleys Saturday morning will
pivot northeast through the period, becoming oriented over ME and
offshore from the New England coast Sunday morning. A shortwave
upper trough diving southeast across the Plains to the mid-MS Valley
will reinforce the arctic airmass over much of the central/eastern
U.S. As a result, seasonally cold and dry conditions are expected,
limiting instability and precluding thunderstorm development.

..Leitman.. 01/15/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 161703
SWODY2
SPC AC 161701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland Sunday and
Sunday night.

...Discussion...

Offshore winds will persist along the central through eastern Gulf
coastal areas, as well as the eastern seaboard resulting in stable
conditions inland which will preclude the risk for thunderstorms.

..Dial.. 01/16/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 170637
SWODY2
SPC AC 170636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States
on Monday or Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level flow will become zonal across the southern tier of the
U.S. on Monday as an upper-level low moves south-southeastward off
the coast of southern California. At the surface, high pressure will
be dominant across the Southeast, limiting moisture return into the
southern U.S. This will keep a dry airmass in place across much of
the nation, limiting thunderstorm potential Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/17/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 171708
SWODY2
SPC AC 171706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States
Monday or Monday night.

...Discussion...

The synoptic pattern will undergo transition as an upper trough
amplifies over the western U.S. Monday, and by 12Z Tuesday this
feature will cut off over the Great Basin. Farther downstream across
the eastern states, quasi-zonal flow will become established in the
wake of a shortwave trough that will move off the Atlantic Seaboard
during the afternoon. At the surface a cold front initially situated
across the central Plains 12Z Monday will advance southeast. By the
end of the period this front will extend from the Great Lakes into
the lower MS Valley and northeast through southwest TX.

Partially modified Gulf moisture will with dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s will return through south and central TX Monday evening and
overnight supported by a strengthening southerly low level jet. Very
weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the potential for substantial destabilization. Nevertheless, a shallow unstable layer will evolve
with equilibrium levels near or below 10000 ft. Scattered showers
will likely develop along the cold front and within the evolving
warm advection regime farther south across TX. The depth of the
convective layer will remain well below the threshold needed for
thunderstorms.

..Dial.. 01/17/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 181713
SWODY2
SPC AC 181712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening
across a portion of south Texas as well as near the coast of
southern California.

...South Texas...

Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will gradually build across TX
Tuesday. A weak vorticity maximum may move through the upper ridge
during the evening. A cold front initially from the lower MS Valley
through south central and southwest TX will advance slowly south.
Partially modified Gulf air with dewpoints generally in the low 60s
F will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector. Scattered showers
are expected to develop, primarily in the frontal zone. Forecast
soundings indicate presence of a capping inversion near 700 mb which
will serve as a limiting factor for deeper convection, especially
given weak forcing aloft and tendency for the ridge to build.
Nevertheless a few deeper updrafts with potential for isolated
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, especially during the
evening.

...Southern California Coast...

An upper low will move southward from NV and southern CA early
Tuesday to off the southern CA coast during the evening. Cool
temperatures aloft promoting 7-7.5 mid-level lapse rates and
vorticity maxima rotating through the upper low circulation will
promote the development of mid-level convection. Some of these
updrafts might become deep enough for a few lightning flashes near
the coast, but most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore.

..Dial.. 01/18/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 201713
SWODY2
SPC AC 201712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

The upper low over the lower Colorado River Valley/northwest Mexico
will weaken and become an open wave as it progresses east/northeast
across New Mexico, and moves into the southern Plains overnight.
Cooling temperatures aloft near the compact low/shortwave trough
will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and enough instability to
support isolated lightning flashes near the Colorado Valley and into
southern AZ.

Further east, a southern and northern stream jet over the TN
Valley/southern states and the Midwest will merge as a broad trough
envelopes the eastern half of the country. Modest cooling aloft as
the upper southwestern upper trough approaches during the evening
and nighttime hours will allow for modest instability across
portions of north TX into the lower MS Valley. A few lightning
flashes could accompany showers during the later half of the
forecast period.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 211714
SWODY2
SPC AC 211712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant trough near coastal northern CA at the
beginning of the period will pivot east/southeast through period,
emerging over the Great Basin and much of the rest of the southwest
U.S. by Saturday morning. Surface low pressure will develop over
parts of CA into NV, bringing a Pacific front east/southeast across
CA. Showers will accompany this system much of the period.
Steepening lapse rates due to cooling aloft should result in
sufficient instability to support a few thunderstorms around the San
Francisco area and surrounding hills.

Further east, broad, weak cyclonically-curved upper level flow will
dominate east of the Mississippi River. A weak mid/upper shortwave
trough over the southern Plains Friday morning will eject eastward
across the lower MS Valley during the afternoon, and weaken as it
continues east across the remainder of the Southeast. A weak surface
cold front will reside near the Gulf Coast during the morning and
slowly sag southward through Saturday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning and could
persist toward midday across parts of southern LA/MS. This activity
will exist in a weakly unstable environment with any thunderstorm
being undercut by the front, limiting any severe potential.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 221654
SWODY2
SPC AC 221653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough, embedded in the larger-scale western U.S.
trough will dig along the CA coast during the day on Saturday,
before ejecting eastward over northwest Mexico and the lower
Colorado Valley. Forecast soundings near the southwest CA coast and
nearby mountains indicated cooling temperatures aloft, resulting in
steepening lapse rates. Instability will remain low, generally less
than 150 J/kg MUCAPE, but sufficient given strong forcing, and
isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Further east, an upper trough will move offshore from the Atlantic
coast, replaced by a weak upper ridge across the eastern half of the
CONUS. Surface high pressure over the Midwest will slowly shift east
toward the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians, mitigating much in the
way of Gulf return flow. As such, dry and stable conditions will
persist for much of the period, and thunderstorms are not expected
east of the Rockies.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms -- capable of producing hail -- may occur over
portions of North Texas, southern Oklahoma, and far western Arkansas
Sunday evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
While weakly anticyclonic/westerly flow will prevail over the
eastern half of the country Sunday and Sunday night, a short-wave
trough -- embedded within broader/long-wave cyclonic flow over the
West -- is forecast to eject northeastward from the Desert
Southwest, reaching the Kansas/Oklahoma area by the end of the
period. Meanwhile, persistent large-scale cyclonic flow will be
maintained over the west, as elongated short-wave troughing digs
southeastward along the western NOAM coast.

At the surface, a rather ill-defined Pacific cold front crossing the
Desert Southwest will become a bit sharper with time, as surface
frontogenesis increases in a north-south zone encompassing roughly
the central third of Texas. By the end of the period, a cold front
should extend from a surface low over the eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas
vicinity, south-southwestward across East and Deep South Texas.

Showers and occasional/embedded lighting will accompany the advance
of the upper trough across the Southwest/Four Corners states, while
more robust/widespread storms evolve mainly during the second half
of the period, in a zone of elevated warm advection over the
southern Plains vicinity.

...Portions of North Texas/southern Oklahoma/western Arkansas...
Current indications continue to suggest that despite low-level
theta-e advection, a capped boundary layer should persist across the
northern and eastern Texas warm sector, as the cold front
sharpens/shifts eastward across the southern Plains. Still, as QG
ascent increases across north Texas and into Oklahoma with time,
expect elevated storms to erupt -- predominantly after dark --
across this area. Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
anticipated, and presence of strong west-southwesterly flow
increasing with height through the cloud-bearing layer, suggest that
a few stronger storms -- possibly exhibiting mid-level updraft
rotation -- will eventually evolve. As such, hail risk is apparent,
as reflected by the inclusion of a severe weather area.

At this time, risk for surface-based storms -- and thus potential
for damaging winds and even a tornado -- appears quite low, mainly
due to the likelihood that aforementioned capping hinders
surface-based development. However, should ascent accompanying
passage of the front prove sufficient to force a band of
near-surface-based storms, low-end risks for these additional
hazards would be possible. This appears to be an unlikely scenario
at this time, and thus is reflected by the lack of wind/tornado
probabilities. However, should hints that a possibly weaker cap, or
stronger ascent, may evolve across the area, appropriate forecast
adjustments in later outlooks may be considered.

..Goss.. 01/23/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 231711
SWODY2
SPC AC 231710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TX AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps even a brief tornado may occur over portions of North
Texas, southern/eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas Sunday evening
through early Monday morning.

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Based on recent satellite imagery, a shortwave trough currently
extends from the western Great Basin southwestward across central
CA. This shortwave is expected to continue gradually southeastward
today before then pivoting more eastward late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. The shortwave is then forecast to become more progressive
as it moves across the Southwest on Sunday and into the southern
Plains on Sunday night. A second shortwave trough, accompanied by
strong upper flow through its western periphery, is expected to drop
southward along the CA coast Sunday evening/overnight. Progression
of this second shortwave will help maintain broad upper troughing
across the western CONUS into early Monday.

Modest moisture return is anticipated throughout the warm sector in
place over southern Plains ahead of the lead shortwave. Consensus
among the guidance brings low 60s surface dewpoints to the Red River
by late Sunday evening. Low-level stability should preclude
afternoon/evening storms across much of TX. A few stronger updrafts
may develop amid persistent warm-air advection during the
afternoon/evening from northeast TX northeastward across eastern OK
and across AR. Modest instability should limit both updraft depth
and longevity, but strong vertical shear could result in a few
updrafts strong enough to produce hail.

Greater storm coverage (and attendant severe potential) is expected
late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the surface low
associated with the shortwave moves from northwest TX into northeast
OK. Highest thunderstorm coverage is currently anticipated along and
just north of the surface low track. Instability will be modest, but
very strong vertical shear could result in a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail. Additionally, low-probability potential exists for
a few surface-based storms in the vicinity of front from northeast
TX into far southeast OK/far southwest AR. Given the strong
low/mid-level flow, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
even a brief tornado could accompany any surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 01/23/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 240659
SWODY2
SPC AC 240658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to perhaps locally severe storms may linger into Monday
from East Texas to the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
As elongated upper troughing along the West Coast digs
south-southeastward, reinforcing the mean long-wave trough over the
West, a weakening feature -- ejecting from the western trough today
-- will shift northeastward across the central Plains and into the
Midwest. East and southeast of this feature, low-amplitude ridging
will prevail.

At the surface, a low initially expected across Oklahoma will move east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley, gradually filling in
conjunction with the weakening of the upper system. A cold front
trailing from this system -- across eastern Oklahoma and East Texas
at the start of the period -- will similarly become more ill-defined
with time, as it moves across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
and sags into the central Gulf Coast States overnight.

...East Texas to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio
Rivers...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the
start of the period from eastern portions of the central and
southern Plains, eastward to the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Early in the period, a few robust storms may persist into the
morning and possibly midday hours, along with local/attendant risk
for primarily hail. With time however, as the surface and upper
systems weaken and shift east-northeastward, a less unstable warm
sector with eastward extent should yield steadily diminishing
convective intensity through the afternoon and into the evening
hours.

..Goss.. 01/24/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to perhaps locally severe storms may linger into Monday
from East Texas to the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Well-defined shortwave trough currently over southern CA/northern
Baja will move eastward across the Southwest and into southern High
Plains today. This wave is forecast to have transitioned to more of
an open, negatively tilted system by early Monday, likely extending
from the central High Plains southeastward into western OK Monday
morning. This wave is then expected to continue quickly
northeastward throughout the day, losing amplitude as it moves
through the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. A second shortwave
trough, now visible on satellite imagery off the Pacific Northwest
Coast, is expected to continue southeastward along the CA coast
before pivoting eastward over southern CA Monday evening. Overall
upper pattern will favor continued western CONUS troughing
throughout the period, with a long fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow aloft stretching from the Baja Peninsula into the
OH Valley.

Surface low associated with the lead shortwave trough will likely be
centered over northeast OK early Monday morning, with a cold front
extending southward into northeast TX and then back southwestward
into the TX Hill Country. A warm front is also expected to extend
eastward from the low into western TN. This low will likely occlude
throughout the day as the overall system weakens, but secondary
cyclogenesis is forecast at the triple point, with the resulting low
moving across KY Monday night.

...Northeast TX/Southeast OK into Lower OH Valley...
Pre-frontal warm sector will likely be characterized by low to mid
60s dewpoints early Monday from northeast TX into the Mid-South.
Residual EML is expected to be in place, keeping the potential for surface-based in the immediate vicinity of the front and/or triple
point. Strength of the vertical shear suggests that more
robust/persistent updrafts should be able to acquire rotation, with
the elevated storms capable of hail and the surface-based storms
capable of all severe hazards, but primarily hail. As the day
progresses, convergence along the front will wane, likely
contributing to diminishing storm strength and coverage. The
potential for surface-based inflow is also expected to lessen, but
there is still some chance for damaging wind gusts near the triple
point, where low-level ascent will be greatest, and for hail north
of the warm front into evening.

...MS/AL...
Moisture advection is expected throughout the day, with mid 60s
dewpoints possibly reaching as far north as BHM prior to FROPA. This
increased moisture and resulting increase in buoyancy could
contribute to stronger updrafts and higher storm coverage along and
ahead of front as it moves through MS and AL Monday evening. This
increased moisture could also result in higher potential for
surface-based storm inflow. High resolution guidance varies on this
potential, so confidence in enough coverage to merit severe
probabilities is too low to introduce an area with this outlook.
However, probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if potential
for even severe coverage increases.

..Mosier.. 01/24/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 161652
SWODY2
SPC AC 161650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur beginning late Wednesday
afternoon and continuing through the night across portions of the
central Gulf Coast. A couple tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps some hail all appear possible.

...Central Gulf Coast...

A large-scale upper trough centered over the High Plains will deepen
on Wednesday as an embedded shortwave impulse pivots east from the
lower CO Valley/northwest Mexico to northeast Mexico and the Rio
Grande Valley in TX. Smaller perturbations will eject across the
central Gulf Coast vicinity during the afternoon and into the
overnight hours ahead of the main upper wave. This will induce weak
surface low/trough development from coastal LA to the western FL
peninsula during the period. Low level southerly flow ahead of this
surface low/trough will allow low-to-mid-60s F dewpoints to encroach
along the immediate coastal vicinity from southeast LA eastward to
southern AL, northern FL and southern GA. The warm front is not
forecast to surge too far north across the region, resulting in a
confined warm sector near the coast.

Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but the influx of low level
moisture will allow for weak destabilization across the narrow warm
sector. Elevated thunderstorms will likely increase by mid-afternoon
near the trailing surface cold front across southern LA and
southwest MS. As this line of convection shifts eastward into better
moisture and greater instability during the late afternoon and
evening, the severe threat will increase across southeast LA into
southern MS. Strong low level winds could result in locally damaging
gusts, even in somewhat elevated convection close to the triple
point. Near the immediate coast where surface-based instability is
more likely, large, curved hodographs suggest tornado potential will
exist both within line segments and any semi-discrete cells that
develop. The severe threat will spread eastward toward southern AL
and the western FL Panhandle during the overnight hours, with a
continued threat for isolated damaging gusts and a couple of
tornadoes.

..Leitman.. 02/16/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 171720
SWODY2
SPC AC 171718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Southeast on Thursday. A couple tornadoes and isolated damaging
wind gusts will be the main hazards with these storms.

...Southeast vicinity...

A weak surface low near the western FL Peninsula Thursday morning
will drift east/northeast across northern FL/southern GA through the
period. Secondary cyclogenesis will occur offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic beginning late Thursday afternoon. A warm front will
lift northward across southern GA, and just inland from the SC/NC
coast. As the weak low over northern FL shift northeast and stronger cyclogenesis begins offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, a cold front
will shift east/southeast during the afternoon and evening. The cold
front should move offshore the Carolinas coast by around 00z, and
the GA coast by 06z, before more quickly dropping southeast across
northern FL overnight.

Most convection is expected to be somewhat elevated. This is in part
to an elevated warm layer between the surface and 850 mb, limiting surface-based instability. Additionally, deep layer flow will
largely be parallel to the southeastward-advancing cold front. As a
result, storms could become quickly undercut by the front.
Widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit
surface heating. As midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, this
ultimately will result in weak destabilization, with MLCAPE values
generally less than 500 J/kg, though some pockets near 750 J/kg are
possible closer to the GA/southern SC coast. While instability will
be limited, strong low level flow will exist, with a 40-50 kt low
level jet in place. Strong shear will help compensate for weaker
instability, resulting in isolated strong-to-severe organized cells
and line segments. A greater relative severe risk may exist near the
warm front, where SRH will be enhanced, leading to somewhat larger
and more curved low level hodographs. However, surface winds will
not be very strong, and convergence along the boundary rather weak.
As a result, the overall tornado threat is somewhat conditional.
While surface winds will be weak, overall strong low/mid level flow
could result in isolated damaging gusts through late afternoon/early
evening.

..Leitman.. 02/17/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 181658
SWODY2
SPC AC 181657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough from the upper Great Lakes to the western Gulf of
Mexico will shift east on Friday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast
late in the period. At the surface, strong high pressure centered
over the southern Plains will develop eastward toward the mid-South.
Meanwhile, a cold front draped across northern FL and the eastern
Gulf of Mexico will push southeastward. The front should depart the
southern FL Peninsula and move over the FL Straits overnight. While
forecast guidance indicates mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and
temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s ahead of the front, severe
potential is expected to remain low. This is in part due to weak low
level convergence along the front and weak upper forcing.
Furthermore, poor midlevel lapse rates will limit instability, with
MLCAPE to 500 J/kg forecast. The combination of weak forcing and
limited instability should keep thunderstorm activity isolated.
Moderate shear will exist across the area, with 30-40 kt
southwesterly flow around 850-700 mb. This could result in a couple
of briefly strong storms capable of gusty winds, but even any
relatively stronger activity is expected to remain below severe
thresholds.

..Leitman.. 02/18/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 191714
SWODY2
SPC AC 191712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across a portion of the Great
Basin Saturday afternoon.

...Great Basin area...

Steepening lapse rates due to surface heating and cooling mid-level temperatures (-25 to -30 C at 500 mb) associated with the approach
of a shortwave trough will contribute to weak instability (100-300
J/kg MLCAPE) Saturday afternoon. This environment along with modest
forcing for ascent will result in isolated showers, a few of which
might become capable of lightning flashes before diminishing during
the evening. Limited moisture and instability suggest coverage of
any thunderstorms should remain sparse.

..Dial.. 02/19/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 200532
SWODY2
SPC AC 200530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Mid/upper ridging is in the process of building across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific. However, models indicate that ongoing
amplification along a positively-tilted axis, as far northeast as
the British Columbia coast and Canadian Rockies by 12Z Sunday, will
be relatively short lived, with flow across the U.S. remaining
progressive. This will include mid-level troughing, comprised of at
least a couple of smaller scale perturbations, now advancing inland
of the Oregon/northern California coast.

Models suggest that the lead embedded perturbation will become more
prominent by Sunday, east of the Rockies, as it progresses across
the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. It appears
that it may provide support for modest lower/mid-tropospheric
cyclogenesis, with an evolving trailing cold front advancing across
and east of the Mississippi Valley, and southward into the
northwestern Gulf coast region by late Sunday night.

Despite the potentially favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening wind fields/shear associated with this developing
system, it still appears that destabilization will be hampered by
weak low-level moisture return off a western Gulf of Mexico boundary
layer significantly impacted by the recent cold intrusion. Within
the evolving warm sector, destabilization will be further
complicated by lingering, melting snow cover, and, to the south of
an associated strong southwesterly mid-level jet streak, warm layers
aloft.

Near the deepening mid-level low center, across parts of eastern
Nebraska into western Iowa early Sunday morning, latest NAM forecast
soundings suggest that steepening of mid-level lapse rates and
elevated moisture return might become sufficient to contribute to
thermodynamic profiles marginally conducive to convection capable of
producing lightning. However, based on forecast soundings farther
east, through the remainder of the period, this may be short lived.
Given uncertainties and lingering model discrepancies, thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, at least
for now.

..Kerr.. 02/20/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 201653
SWODY2
SPC AC 201651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the mid MO Valley
southwestward through the central Rockies and into the Desert
Southwest early Sunday morning. At the same time, the surface low
attendant to this shortwave will likely be centered over
south-central KS/north-central OK. Expectation is for the parent
shortwave to move quickly eastward, ending the period extended from
Lower MI through the mid MS Valley and into the southern Plains. The
surface low is expected to move northeastward just ahead of the
shortwave, ending the period over Lower MI. Some modest deepening of
this low is expected for the first half of the period before it
occludes late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Cold front
associated with this low will sweep eastward/southeastward,
traversing much of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley.

Moderate to strong forcing for ascent will accompanying this
shortwave and attendant surface low/cold front. However, only modest modification of the prevailing arctic air mass has occurred, and
any return moisture remains mostly offshore. As such, scant buoyancy
is expected preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 02/20/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 210531
SWODY2
SPC AC 210530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Lowest mid-level heights have retreated to the Arctic latitudes,
and, by 12Z Monday, appear likely to be centered to the north of
Alaska and the Canadian Yukon and Northwest Territories. Much of
North America will remain under the influence of progressive
westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. This flow may
trend northwesterly across the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of
Alaska into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, as short
wave ridging builds to the north of a fairly prominent mid-level
high centered over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific.
Downstream flow appears likely to maintain more of a westerly
component east of the Rockies into the Atlantic.

Mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations, within this regime may be accompanied by a modest
surface cyclone migrating across lower Michigan early in the period,
with a trailing cold front advancing east of the Mississippi Valley.
As the troughing continues rapidly eastward, models suggest more
substantive secondary cyclogenesis may initiate across and northeast
of the southern New England coast by Monday evening, with the
trailing cold front strengthening while advancing off the Atlantic
Seaboard.

In the wake of the recent arctic cold intrusion, generally weak
pre-frontal low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico likely
will continue to limit the risk for thunderstorms with this system.
However, models continue to suggest low probabilities for
thunderstorm development Monday, as somewhat better moisture influx
off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic contributes
to weak destabilization across parts of northern Florida into the
central Florida Peninsula, and near coastal North Carolina. If this
occurs, it appears that it will be focused in the wake/above the
cold front, with negligible risk for severe weather. Primary
thunderstorm development is still expected to be focused in
association with more favorable phasing of low-level destabilization
and forcing for ascent offshore, near the Gulf Stream, Monday night.

..Kerr.. 02/21/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 211703
SWODY2
SPC AC 211702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across southeast Georgia and Florida
Peninsula Monday, as well as the immediate North Carolina coast
Monday afternoon/evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing is expected to be in place across the central
and eastern CONUS early Monday morning, accompanied by moderate to
strong southwesterly flow aloft and an occluded surface low over
Lower MI. This upper troughing is forecast to advance eastward
throughout the day, with a more progressive embedded shortwave
trough over the OH Valley contributing to more eastward progress
than areas farther south, where the embedded shortwave will be
slower. Even so, this upper trough is not expected to truly
bifurcate and will likely be entirely off the East Coast by early
Tuesday morning.

Surface low attendant to this system will begin the period occluded
over Lower MI and is expected to further occlude throughout the day.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis will likely occur off the
Mid-Atlantic coast as associated cold front moves
eastward/southeastward through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Another weak surface low may develop over the FL Panhandle Monday
afternoon, at the intersection of the better low-level moisture
return and the cold front. This low is then forecast to move
northeastward across southeast GA and off the GA Coast. A corridor
of relatively stronger forcing for ascent will accompany this low,
but the more favorable low-level moisture will be displaced farther
south across the FL Peninsula. Additionally, abundant cloud cover
will limit heating, contributing to substantial low-level stability.
Farther south across the FL Peninsula, warm temperatures aloft and
displacement from the better forcing for ascent will limit deep
updrafts. However, a few storms may be deep/persistent enough to
produce a few lightning flashes.

..Mosier.. 02/21/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 221658
SWODY2
SPC AC 221656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies Tuesday.

...Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies...

Embedded within a progressive northwest flow regime, another in a
series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move southeast into
the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and
evening. This feature will be accompanied by cold temperatures aloft
supporting steep (7.5 - 8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and weak
instability with MLCAPE from 100-300 J/kg as the boundary layer
warms during the day. Scattered showers will likely develop with the
most numerous activity within the upslope regions of the Cascades
and northern Rockies. A few lightning flashes will be possible,
especially from late afternoon through mid evening.

..Dial.. 02/22/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 231649
SWODY2
SPC AC 231648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for thunderstorms should remain low across the U.S. mainland on
Wednesday.

...Great Basin through central Rockies area...

A shortwave trough initially situated over IA by 12Z Wednesday will
continue southeast through UT during the afternoon and evening,
reaching northern AZ Wednesday night. Scattered snow showers are
expected to develop in post-frontal regime in association with this
feature. While a few lightning flashes cannot be completely ruled
out, coverage of any such activity is expected to remain less than
10% due to very limited instability.

..Dial.. 02/23/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 241711
SWODY2
SPC AC 241710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across north
central Texas through the Ark-La-Tex vicinity Thursday night,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail.

...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley...
A shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Four Corners
region eastward through the southern Plains and into the Lower MS
Valley from early Thursday into early Friday. A dry and stable air
mass will precede this shortwave across the southern Plains, with
much of the favorable low-level moisture remaining confined to the
TX Coastal Plain and western/central Gulf Coast. Even so,
strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of the shortwave will
contribute to broad and relatively strong isentropic ascent over
much of the southern Plains into the adjacent Lower MS Valley,
resulting in thunderstorm development Thursday night. At the same
time, enhanced mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave will spread
eastward, resulting in modest to strong unidirectional flow above
the low-level stable layer. Modest mid-level lapse rates will limit
overall buoyancy, but a few strong updrafts are still possible.
Given the strong flow aloft, any deep and/or persistent updrafts
will have the potential to rotate, with a corresponding possibility
to produce hail. The cold surface-based layer is expected to remain
deep enough to preclude the risk for severe wind gust and tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 02/24/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 251722
SWODY2
SPC AC 251721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern
Gulf Coast region late Tuesday afternoon or evening, accompanied by
at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that there will be considerable amplification within
the mid/upper flow regime across the mid-latitude Pacific through
this period, including the development of sharpening ridging along
an axis near 160 W longitude. To the east of this ridge axis, a
vigorous digging short wave trough is forecast to contribute to
deepening large-scale troughing across the eastern Pacific, and into
the Pacific coast vicinity by 12Z Wednesday. It appears that this
will be accompanied by a deep occluding surface cyclone, with the
occluding front advancing inland across the Oregon and northern
California coast late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The
front may be preceded by generally modest moisture return, mostly
across northern California coastal areas late Tuesday afternoon and
evening, and the leading edge of the mid-level cold core associated
with the short wave trough may overspread areas to the west of the
Cascades late Tuesday night. However, forecast soundings remain
suggestive that potential for thunderstorm activity is negligible
through at least this period.

Meanwhile, with the approach of the upstream perturbation, a
significant short wave impulse currently digging into the Southwest
is forecast to remain progressive. Models indicate that this
feature will accelerate across the southern Rockies through south
central portions of the Great Plains by late Tuesday night. At the
same time, a downstream perturbation, becoming sheared within an
increasingly confluent regime, is expected to be forced eastward/east-southeastward across southern portions of the Great
Lakes region through southern New England.

In response to these developments, in lower-levels, it appears that
an initial surface cyclone will weaken over the upper Ohio Valley,
while secondary surface cyclogenesis takes place along a warm
frontal zone off the Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, a trailing
cold front likely will advance southeast of southern Appalachians
and become quasi-stationary west-southwestward across north central
Gulf coastal areas by late Tuesday night. The front appears likely
to stall generally near the northern periphery of subtropical
ridging (centered over the Caribbean), which may maintain strength
through this period, with a continuing return flow of moisture
around it, along and south of the frontal zone.

...Southeast...
Elevated moisture return above the frontal zone will contribute to
weak destabilization and thermodynamic profiles marginally
supportive of occasional weak thunderstorm activity, largely aided
by forcing for ascent supported by the progressive short wave
impulses.

Warm mid-levels beneath the subtropical ridging, to the south of the
frontal zone, seem likely to minimize thunderstorm development.
However, models do suggest a window of opportunity for
boundary-layer based storm development in a narrow corridor
along/ahead of the surface front across parts of the western Florida
Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of the lead short wave
impulse, and in advance of the perturbation emerging from the
Southwest, models suggest that mid-levels may remain sufficiently
cool, as large-scale ascent associated with low-level warm advection
begins to increase, to allow for scattered thunderstorm development.
In the presence of 30-50+ kt west-southwesterly flow in the
850-500 mb layer, mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg
appears possible and may contribute to strong to severe thunderstorm development capable of producing potential damaging wind gusts
before diminishing Tuesday evening.

,,,Southern Rockies into adjacent portions of Great Plains...
Models suggest that weak destabilization is possible across the
higher terrain, and at mid-levels across adjacent portions of the
high plains, beneath the mid-level cold pool associated with the
impulse emerging from the Southwest. It appears that thermodynamic
profiles may become at least marginally conducive to convection
capable of producing lightning, but any such activity probably will
be fairly sparse, with probabilities generally near the minimum
threshold for a categorical thunderstorm outlook.

..Kerr.. 01/25/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 261717
SWODY2
SPC AC 261716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southern
Georgia Wednesday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather.

...Synopsis...
One belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific
appears likely to maintain a prominent influence across the U.S.
through this period. Across much of the eastern Pacific, models
indicate that embedded mid/upper ridging will remain amplified, with
downstream troughing undergoing further amplification/sharpening
just west of the Pacific coast, while ridging builds across the
Rockies and Great Plains. As this occurs, broadly confluent flow
eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard (between the blocked regime
across eastern Canada and the prominent subtropical ridge over the
Caribbean), appears likely to transition from westerly to
west-northwesterly. Embedded within this regime, after turning
eastward across the middle Mississippi Valley during the day
Wednesday, a significant remnant impulse emerging from the Southwest
is forecast to dig into southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by 12Z
Thursday.

In lower levels, models indicate that an initially stalled surface
frontal zone, across the western Atlantic and Southeast into
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, will provide the focus for significant cyclogenesis with the approach of the digging short wave impulse.
While it appears that surface wave development may commence across
the southeastern Alabama/western Florida Panhandle/southwestern
Georgia vicinity by early Wednesday, guidance suggests that this
will remain fairly weak until Wednesday evening, generally well east
of the Carolina coast. As stronger surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a
cold front will surge through much of Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday night, accompanied by considerable
lower/mid tropospheric drying.

...Southeast...
Along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, at least initially.
But, conditions along the surface front will still be moist, with a
narrow plume of higher precipitable water content (emanating from
southwestern Gulf of Mexico) initially arcing northeastward along
and north of the frontal zone, before being shunted southward.

Within the warm sector of the developing frontal wave, it appears
that surface dew points in the mid 60s may contribute to weak
boundary-layer CAPE up to 500 + J/kg, across southern Georgia by
Wednesday afternoon. On the southern fringe of the stronger
mid-level height falls, which may glance areas as far south as the Georgia/Florida border vicinity, this may become supportive of
scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. Coinciding with
strengthening of west-southwesterly flow to 40-50 kt around the 850
mb level, enlarging low-level hodographs could become supportive of
supercell structures posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or an
isolated tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 01/26/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 271726
SWODY2
SPC AC 271725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of coastal and interior
central California, mainly Thursday night, but the risk for severe
weather appears negligible.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the amplified regime across the eastern Pacific
will undergo transition during this period, with initially sharp
mid/upper ridging (between 140-160 W longitude) becoming suppressed
by the first in a series of digging short wave impulses. As this
occurs, fairly deep, elongated downstream troughing is forecast to
gradually progress inland across the Pacific coast. It appears that
this will include at least one vigorous short wave impulse, which is
forecast to dig into its base, accompanied by a sizable mid-level
cold core with 500 mb temperatures at or below -30C. A modest
surface cyclone and associated reinforcing low-level cold intrusion
may also develop southward along the California coast, into areas
near and southwest of Monterey by late Thursday night.

Farther east, broad mid/upper ridging likely will be maintained
across the Rockies into the Mississippi Valley, with perhaps some
further amplification across the Great Plains. To the southeast of
a blocking high near/northeast of Hudson Bay, it appears that a deep
mid-level low will be forced southeastward toward the lower Great
Lakes region. This will prevent eastward development of the
upstream ridging, and contribute to the evolution of large-scale
troughing across the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic.

Strong cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed over the western
Atlantic, in association with a preceding vigorous short wave
impulse digging off the southern Mid Atlantic coast by the beginning
of the period. In its wake, a cold front will advance southeast of
the Florida Peninsula, with the leading edge of associated lower/mid tropospheric drying advancing through the Bahamas, Caribbean and
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While a southerly return flow,
emanating from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, may develop
north-northwestward into the Rio Grande Valley and parts of the
southern Great Plains, this will be elevated above a cool/cold,
stable boundary layer. Beneath relatively warm and capping layers
aloft, forecast soundings suggest that this is unlikely to yield destabilization supportive of thunderstorm activity.

...California...
An initial frontal precipitation band, spreading south and east of
the Monterey vicinity at 12Z Thursday, may be preceded by strong
southerly flow around the 850 mb level on the order of 40-50+ kt.
This may contribute to large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs
across coastal areas into southern portions of the San Joaquin
Valley early in the day, before the low-level jet weakens. However,
forecast soundings within this regime indicate thermodynamic
profiles with little potential for lightning, and lingering stable
layers near the surface which is expected to preclude a severe
weather risk.

In the post-frontal regime, strong mid-level cooling, associated
with the digging mid-level cold core, is expected to contribute to
weak destabilization along and inland of the central California
coast late Thursday through Thursday night. Latest forecast
soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will probably become
supportive of scattered convection, occasionally capable of
producing lightning.

..Kerr.. 01/27/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 281722
SWODY2
SPC AC 281720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorm appears negligible across the U.S.,
Friday through Friday nnight.

...Synopsis...
To the southeast of blocking mid/upper ridging centered across
northern Quebec, large-scale troughing is currently in the process
of evolving near the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic.
It appears that this will be maintained through this period, as
renewed amplification occurs within the westerlies across the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific.

Models indicate that the latter regime will include deepening
large-scale mid-level troughing across the northeastern Pacific, the
leading edge of which may at least approach British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest coastal areas by 12Z Saturday. In advance of this
feature, low amplitude ridging may begin to build inland across
California by late Friday evening, as the significant short wave
trough currently approaching the California coast is forced
east-northeastward.

A vigorous smaller-scale perturbation may still be digging within
the lead short wave trough, to the west of the southern California
coast at 12Z Friday. This feature, and the associated mid-level
cold core (with 500 mb temps around -30C), might not turn completely
inland of the southern California coast until late Friday afternoon
or early evening. However, a more rapid east-northeastward
acceleration is forecast Friday night, with the larger-scale short
wave trough taking on a negative tilt across and east of the
southern Rockies by Saturday morning.

In response to the approaching mid-level perturbation, models
indicate considerable deepening of surface troughing to the lee of
the Rockies, with cyclogenesis commencing across southeast Colorado
by late Friday night. While a southerly return flow off the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico may be underway by Friday morning across
the lower Rio Grande Valley and adjacent southern Great Plains,
substantive boundary-layer moistening (including 60-65F+ surface dew
points) may not reach lower Texas coastal areas until around 12Z
Saturday. Forecast soundings indicate that the depth of this moist
layer will remain fairly shallow, beneath very warm and strongly
capping elevated mixed-layer air.

...Southwest...
Models indicate that the surface cold front associated with the
inland advancing mid-level short wave trough may be in the process
of advancing into/across the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday,
before continuing eastward across the central/southern Arizona
deserts during the day. It appears that the front will be preceded
by moderately strong (30-40+ kt) south/southwesterly flow in the
850-700 mb layer, but moistening and mid-level cooling sufficient to
contribute to thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorm
development are forecast to be confined to the post-frontal regime,
after this flow veers and weakens. With only very weak CAPE
currently anticipated, while some of this activity (which could
impact southern California coastal areas into Friday afternoon, as
well as the Greater Phoenix area by late Friday afternoon) may be
accompanied by small hail/graupel and gusty winds, it is expected to
generally remain well below severe limits.

...Parts of the southern Great Plains...
Increasing deep-layer large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
inland accelerating short wave trough is forecast to begin impacting
the higher terrain and high plains of west Texas and eastern New
Mexico by Friday evening. This will be accompanied by steepening
mid-level lapse rates. Although forecast soundings suggest that the
most substantive moisture return across this region may be of lower
latitude eastern Pacific origin, and based near or above 700 mb, it
appears that thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to
convection capable of producing lightning. And it appears that this
activity will tend to develop northeastward into south central
portions of the Great Plains by 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 01/28/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 291730
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated strong thunderstorm or two may impact a narrow corridor
across parts of eastern Oklahoma through northern Arkansas and
southern Missouri Saturday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at
least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Ongoing amplification within the westerlies across the central into
eastern mid-latitude Pacific appears likely to begin translating
inland across western North America during this period. This is
forecast to include the continuing evolution of deep large-scale
mid-level troughing across the eastern Pacific (generally just west
of the Pacific coast), and building large-scale ridging across the
U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies.

As this occurs, an initially vigorous short wave impulse, to the lee
of the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday, is forecast to continue an east-northeastward acceleration. However, models indicate at least
some weakening is possible as it progresses into a broadly confluent
regime between low amplitude downstream ridging overspreading the
south Atlantic coast and the western flank of remnant large-scale
troughing shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard.

It does appear that the perturbation will be accompanied by a
significant surface cyclone emerging from the high plains of
southeastern Colorado. And guidance indicates that this may include
a period with at least some further deepening as it migrates across
the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity into the lower Missouri Valley.

In the wake of a recent cold intrusion, boundary-layer moistening
may be underway across much of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
early Saturday, and continue through the period across much of the
remainder of the Gulf. However, this may still be fairly modest,
with deepest inland boundary-layer moistening confined to southeast
Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley, with surface dew points
in the mid 50s to around 60F.

...Southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley...
Potential for thunderstorm activity is expected to initially be in
association with elevated moisture return (of lower latitude eastern
Pacific origin) and destabilization, supported by strong large-scale
forcing for ascent downstream of the progressive short wave trough.
Lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, beneath divergent high-level
flow, may be contributing to this early, across Oklahoma and
adjacent portions of the Great Plains/Ozark Plateau. It appears
that this may diminish during the day, with probabilities for
renewed thunderstorm development becoming focused near the compact
mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temps of -20 to -25 C). This
is expected to spread across parts of the lower Missouri Valley and
Ozark Plateau by Saturday evening. It might not be out of the
question that convection capable of producing lightning could
continue east-northeastward in a corridor along the Ohio River
Saturday night, but this potential becomes more unclear due to model
spread.

The stronger mid-level cooling, to the north of an initially
intense mid-level jet (around 100 kt at 500 mb), appears likely to
spread to the north of the better warm sector boundary-layer
moistening, with warm mid-levels to the south of the jet capping
convective development. However, early day precipitation will
contribute to boundary-layer moistening in advance of the cold pool,
and forecast soundings suggest potential for weak boundary-layer destabilization with some insolation beneath a developing dry slot.
Current model output suggests this is most probable along a corridor
across east central Oklahoma through north central Arkansas/south
central Missouri Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening.
However, given spread evident among the model output, this axis
could be displaced at least somewhat to the north or south.

Regardless, given the potential for a developing narrow corridor of
at least weak boundary-layer destabilization, vigorous thunderstorm
development appears possible in the presence of strong deep-layer
mean wind fields and vertical shear. It appears that this will
include 50-70 kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-700 mb
layer, which could support a small organized cluster and/or isolated
supercell structure or two, accompanied by the risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado.

..Kerr.. 01/29/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 300537
SWODY2
SPC AC 300535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving into the Four Corners region is
forecast to continue eastward/northeastward today and overnight,
reaching the Mid MS Valley Sunday morning as a mature/stacked
cyclone. An additional shortwave trough is expected to progress
through the base of the larger parent system on Sunday, contributing
to amplification of the eastern CONUS upper troughing as well as
secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southern Appalachians and
Carolina Piedmont.

Secondary surface low resulting from this cyclogenesis will likely
move northeastward across central SC and eastern NC, progressing
along the stationary front separating the residual cold air damming
across the Mid-Atlantic from the warm and moist airmass across the
Southeast. A cold front attendant to the surface low will move
quickly eastward/southeastward across the Southeast and much of FL.

Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the
front across southern GA, eastern SC, and northern FL, but abundant
cloud cover and poor lapse rates will temper overall buoyancy.
Additionally, surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front,
limiting low-level convergence. These limiting factors will be
countered somewhat by strong deep-layer shear, and robust storm or
two is not out of the question. Even so, the overall marginal severe
potential combined with these limiting factors precludes the need to
introduce any severe probabilities with this outlook. Severe
probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in
greater buoyancy and storm coverage increases.

..Mosier.. 01/30/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 301658
SWODY2
SPC AC 301656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Midwest Sunday morning will
be reinforced by a shortwave trough ejecting eastward from the
southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity. This will result in a deepening
trough over the Southeast as the system as a whole shifts eastward,
becoming oriented from the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes
vicinity to the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning. At the
surface, low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will shift east
toward the central Appalachians, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs
over the NC/SC Piedmont. A cold front will extend from southern IN southwestward into central LA Sunday morning. Southerly low level
flow ahead of the front will transport mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints
across much of the Southeast, and as far north as the NC/SC coastal
Plain. However, strong cold air damming will limit northward extent
of higher surface dewpoints, with low-to-mid 60s dewpoints remaining
confined to southern GA and parts of FL.

While strong deep layer flow will overlap with increasing moisture
ahead of the front, instability will remain meager due to poor
midlevel lapse rates and abundant cloud cover resulting in poor
surface heating. Additionally, most guidance is showing veering low
level flow, resulting in weak frontal convergence. While a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from northern FL northward through
the SC/NC coastal vicinity, the overall severe threat appears too
low to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 01/30/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 310540
SWODY2
SPC AC 310538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern Florida on
Monday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper pattern, consisting of an eastern trough and
western ridge, is forecast to be in place across the CONUS early
Monday morning. This overall pattern is expected to shift eastward
throughout the period, placing the upper trough along the East Coast
and the upper ridge from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairie
Provinces. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is also expected to move
quickly across the Pacific Northwest, preceding a deeper trough
expected to extend from British Columbia into the northeast Pacific
Ocean early Tuesday.

Largely stable conditions are anticipated across the CONUS. The only
exception is across a south FL, where an occasional flash may occur
along and ahead of a cold front moving across the peninsula. This
region will also be on the southern edge of the stronger flow aloft, contributing to moderate vertical shear and the low probability
(i.e. less than 5%) potential for a strong downburst or two.

..Mosier.. 01/31/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 011657
SWODY2
SPC AC 011656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Mon Feb 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A mature upper cyclone over the mid-Atlantic will continue to deepen
as it pivots northeast toward southern New England on Tuesday. Snow
showers associated with this system will continue across much of the
Northeast for at least parts of Tuesday. Further west, an amplified
upper ridge will migrate eastward across the Plains while a
shortwave trough moves inland over the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. A few lightning flashes are possible near the
WA/OR coasts as the upper trough approaches and a surface low
develops southward from the BC coast into western WA. Steepening
midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will foster weak
instability near the coast, and a few thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon and evening ahead of a surface cold front.

..Leitman.. 02/01/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 021641
SWODY2
SPC AC 021640

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of western
Colorado and vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will progress eastward across much of the western/central CONUS on Wednesday. Strong ascent preceding this
feature coupled with modest diurnal heating and cooling mid-level
temperatures should support the development of weak instability
(MUCAPE up to 300 J/kg) Wednesday afternoon across western CO and
vicinity. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, it appears that the modest instability may extend through a
sufficient vertical depth to support charge separation and isolated
lighting flashes. East of the Rockies, an upper ridge is forecast to
move eastward from the Plains and Upper Midwest to the eastern CONUS
through the period. Low-level moisture return across the
southern/central Plains in advance of the approaching upper trough
is expected to remain insufficient to support any meaningful
thunderstorm potential.

..Gleason.. 02/02/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 031714
SWODY2
SPC AC 031712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Feb 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over much of the western/central CONUS
Thursday morning is forecast to continue moving across the eastern
states through the period. A surface low initially over northern OK
and southern KS should develop northeastward to the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes by Thursday evening. A trailing cold front will
sweep quickly east-southeastward across the southern Plains and
lower/mid MS Valley. Modest low-level moisture return, characterized
by surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should occur
through the day across these regions ahead of the cold front.
However, the stronger forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough
will likely remain displaced to the north. In addition, poor
low/mid-level lapse rates and the presence of a low-level inversion
in forecast soundings suggest that any convection that may develop
along the front through Thursday evening will likely remain shallow,
with little thunderstorm potential evident.

..Gleason.. 02/03/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 041720
SWODY2
SPC AC 041718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Thu Feb 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An expansive upper trough will be in place over much of the CONUS
Friday morning. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to move across parts of the southern
Plains and Southeast through the period. At the surface, generally
dry and/or stable conditions will prevail across a majority of the
CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of southern GA and
FL to the south of a front. Mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints
will be present across this region, but poor lapse rates and warm
temperatures aloft should limit instability and the potential for thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 02/04/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 060721
SWODY2
SPC AC 060719

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL SUNDAY MORNING...

CORRECTED FOR MRGL RISK HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible across
central Florida Sunday morning.

...Central Florida Vicinity...

A shortwave upper trough embedded in larger-scale cyclonically
curved flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will be positioned
from the Mid-South to western FL Sunday morning. A cold front will
extend from the surface low near the Outer Banks of NC southwestward
across northern FL. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
at the beginning of the period along/just ahead of the front. Weak
instability, and modest midlevel lapse rates will overlap with
strong effective shear, supporting organized cells. Low level flow
ahead of the front will be veered across the peninsula, resulting in
small, but curved low level hodographs. While hodographs will be
small, 0-1 km shear and SRH will adequately support low level
rotation. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible for a few
hours during the morning as the front sags southward across the
central peninsula, with a brief/weak tornado and/or locally damaging
gust being the main hazards. The upper trough will then pivot
east/northeast of the area and subsidence, along with weakening
shear, will quickly diminish any severe threat with southward
extent.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 061728
SWODY2
SPC AC 061727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms are possible across central Florida Sunday
morning.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will prevail over the entire U.S. Sunday, as the
main polar vortex consolidates across central Canada. At the
leading edge of the associated arctic low-level airmass, a cold
front -- trailing southwestward from a low progged to lie near the
North Carolina Outer Banks early Sunday morning -- will move
steadily southeastward across Florida. As an associated short-wave
trough embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft shifts off the
mid-Atlantic coast and into the northwestern Atlantic, the surface
front will weaken steadily over South Florida overnight.

...Central Florida...
As a cold front advances southward across central Florida during the
day, combination of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer but weak
lapse rates -- particularly at low levels -- will support only
modest CAPE. As such, ongoing convection is forecast to be largely disorganized. However, with moderately strong low- to mid-level
flow lingering atop the region, a stronger storm or two cannot be
ruled out during the morning hours. Any stronger storm would be
accompanied by some potential for a locally strong gust or two, or
possibly even a brief tornado. However, any risk should further
diminish into the afternoon, as flow slackens and the parent upper
system shifts northeastward off the middle Atlantic coast.

..Goss.. 02/06/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 070542
SWODY2
SPC AC 070540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough will envelop most of the CONUS on Monday.
Embedded within larger-scale flow, a shortwave trough will eject
eastward from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Southeast.
As the shortwave ejects into the southern Plains, the low level mass
response will result in strong warm advection and increasing
low/midlevel south/southwesterly flow across the Gulf of
Mexico/southeastern U.S. A stalled boundary extending from southern
FL westward across the central Gulf will retreat northward as a warm
front, becoming positioned near the Gulf coast and northern FL by
Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will dive southward across
the southern Plains, extending from southern AR into central TX by
the end of the period.

Instability will remain meager across the Gulf coast vicinity for
much of the period as an antecedent dry airmass will be in place.
However, low and midlevel moisture will increase through the period
in response to strengthening low level south/southwesterly flow.
Showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible north of the
warm front in isentropic ascent, mainly Monday evening into the
overnight hours across portions of the Gulf coast vicinity.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 071721
SWODY2
SPC AC 071719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
Broad, cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to prevail across the entire
U.S. Monday, around the primary polar vortex forecast to remain in
place over central Canada.

At the surface, cold high pressure will reside over roughly the
northern half of the country. Meanwhile, weak low-level warm
advection is expected to evolve over the south-central and
southeastern U.S., as a weak short-wave perturbation within the
cyclonic flow field aloft crosses the southern Plains and shifts
into the Southeast late.

In response to weak low-level warm advection, and associated
weakening/retreat of the remnant front over Florida, showers and a
few thunderstorms will persist across the Peninsula and adjacent
offshore waters through the day, spreading northward with time.
Showers and a few/elevated thunderstorms may also develop overnight
over the central Gulf Coast vicinity, in response to the subtle
increase in QG forcing associated with the aforementioned upper
short-wave trough. In all areas, severe storms are not expected.

..Goss.. 02/07/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 081724
SWODY2
SPC AC 081722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Mon Feb 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A weak shortwave trough will move eastward across the Southeast on
Tuesday, as large-scale upper troughing is maintained over much of
the CONUS and Canada. A surface high centered over the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest will support generally stable conditions
away from the Gulf Coast and FL. A weak surface boundary in place
across the FL Panhandle and southern GA vicinity should develop only
very slowly northward through Tuesday afternoon. Modest ascent
associated with the shortwave trough will support isolated to
perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms over southern AL, the FL
Panhandle, and southern GA through the day. Forecast soundings
across this region show low potential for surface-based storms, as
instability should remain generally weak and elevated owing to poor
low and mid-level lapse rates. This weak instability will likely
limit the overall severe risk, even though deep-layer shear will be
relatively strong.

..Gleason.. 02/08/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 091701
SWODY2
SPC AC 091700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Tue Feb 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain over south-central Canada with a tight
midlevel temperature gradient and broad cyclonic flow regime across
the northern states. Meanwhile, relatively zonal flow will persist
over much of the Southeast. Elsewhere, a lower-latitude shortwave
trough will progress across northern Mexico, with gradual height
falls into the southern Plains by Thursday morning.

At the surface, a cool and stable air mass will exist over much of
the CONUS with an Arctic high centered over Alberta, and very cold
conditions into the northern Plains. The exception will be across
the Gulf Coast states, where pressures will lower a bit during the
day, and where weak warm advection will bring lower 60s dewpoints
onshore across LA, southern MS/AL/GA mainly after 00Z.

Subtle lift associated with this warm advection will result in
elevated showers and a few weak thunderstorms from north TX into AR
and western TN mainly after 03Z. Severe hail is unlikely given the
weak instability.

A few early day storms are expected from the FL Panhandle into
southern GA, beneath zonal flow aloft and with weak lift. Other
thunderstorms are possible from southeast TX into LA into Thursday
morning as the moist air mass is undercut by the cooler air from the
north.

..Jewell.. 02/09/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 101724
SWODY2
SPC AC 101723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely Thursday from Louisiana into
Mississippi, and across Alabama and northern Georgia. A few strong
wind gusts cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A tight midlevel temperature gradient will remain across the
northern states as an upper low rotates over
Alberta/Manitoba/Ontario. Cold air will remain entrenched across the
Plains and Great Lakes, with the cold front progressing across the
Southeast.

The front will extend from southern LA across MS and into northern
AL Thursday morning, with a warm front over central GA. These
boundaries will progress across these states during the day, and
provide a focus for thunderstorms with a moist air mass in place.

...MS/AL/GA...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near
and north of the cold front Thursday morning, which will extend from
southern LA across MS and into northern AL. Ahead of the front,
models indicate only modest low-level lapse rates developing during
the day. However, SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg may develop due to
60s F dewpoints.

Despite the lack of heating, the slow-moving nature of the cold
front may allow for clusters of storms to gain some cold pool
potential. Large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance
region of the upper jet will further aid storm coverage. In terms of
severe potential, low-level wind fields appear marginal for much
downward momentum transfer with 850 mb speeds of 20-30 kt. The lack
of appreciable instability will also limit downdraft potential.
Low-level SRH will be maximized ahead of a weak low and near a warm
front over northern AL and GA, but with only a weak surface trough
and veered 850 mb winds. As such, will maintain less than 5% severe probabilities.

..Jewell.. 02/10/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 120638
SWODY2
SPC AC 120636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of north/central Florida. Occasional damaging wind gusts
should be the main threat, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Florida...
Broadly cyclonic flow will remain over much of the CONUS on
Saturday, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs progressing
eastward through the period. Convective potential will largely be
relegated to parts of the Southeast, where sufficient moisture
should exist to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. At the
surface, a front will likely be located over the FL Panhandle and
southern GA Saturday morning. This front should move little through
the day as a weak surface low develops northeastward from the
northern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic. The potential for surface-based storms will largely remain confined to parts of FL
along/south of the front.

Although large-scale forcing appears rather nebulous across the
Southeast, southwesterly mid-level winds are forecast to gradually
increase through Saturday evening in the vicinity of the surface
front as multiple vorticity maxima aloft move northeastward. The
surface boundary will likely focus convective development, with
storm coverage potentially increasing by Saturday afternoon/evening
as a south-southwesterly low-level jet modestly strengthens.
Deep-layer shear of 35-45 kt will support storm organization.
However, poor mid-level lapse rates and only modest boundary-layer
heating will likely temper instability, even as rich low-level
moisture gradually advects northward across the FL Peninsula. Still,
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg appears probable by peak afternoon
heating across parts of north/central FL. Some storms may be capable
of producing occasional damaging wind gusts if they can organize
into small line segments. 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2 in the
vicinity of the surface front may also support some low-level
rotation and perhaps a brief tornado with any storm that can remain
at least semi-discrete. Regardless, the marginal thermodynamic
environment should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated.

..Gleason.. 02/12/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 121730
SWODY2
SPC AC 121728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a brief
tornado are possible Saturday across northern and central Florida.

...Northern through central Florida...

Within a broad, cyclonic upper-flow regime over the eastern U.S., a
series of vorticity maxima will move from the northern Gulf through
a portion of the southeast states including north FL. A stationary
front will persist from the northern Gulf, northeastward to along
the GA/FL border. Most high-res guidance indicate a rain-cooled
boundary will develop across northern FL Saturday morning due to
ongoing areas of showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty
regarding the placement of this feature with the HRRR suggesting
most of northern FL may not recover during the day. The warm sector
south of the boundary is expected to become moderately unstable with
mid to upper 60s F dewpoints supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but
with weak mid-level lapse rates. Deeper forcing associated with the northeast-migrating maxima will likely remain in cool sector.
However, a few storms are expected to develop along the rain-cooled
boundary across north or central FL during the afternoon as the
boundary layer destabilizes. While the stronger winds aloft and
vertical shear will reside in the cool sector, at least 30-40 kt
effective bulk shear will support the potential for some storm
organization with locally strong wind gusts the main threat.
Additional strong storms may develop farther south along the sea
breeze.

..Dial.. 02/12/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 130631
SWODY2
SPC AC 130630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Occasional damaging winds
should be the main threat, although a tornado or two may also occur.

...Florida...
Large-scale upper troughing will dominate the CONUS on Sunday. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Gulf of Mexico at the start
of the period is forecast to move northeastward across parts of the
central Gulf Coast states and the Carolinas by Sunday night. At the
surface, a convectively reinforced boundary will likely remain over
parts of north FL and perhaps far southern GA through the day. A
moist low-level airmass, characterized by generally mid to upper 60s
surface dewpoints, will likely exist to the south of this front
across much of the FL Peninsula.

Some precipitation may be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of
this region in a modest low-level warm advection regime. This casts
uncertainty regarding how much instability will ultimately develop
across the FL Peninsula Sunday afternoon, as greater coverage of
morning convection could limit destabilization. Still, most guidance
suggests that around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by
Sunday afternoon to the south of the surface boundary, as at least
modest diurnal heating acts on the moist low-level airmass. Both low
and mid-level southwesterly flow are expected to increase through
the day as the shortwave trough overspreads the Southeast. Around
35-45 kt of deep-layer shear should be present over much of the northern/central FL Peninsula, which will support updraft
organization if sufficient destabilization can occur. Small bowing
segments and marginal supercell structures may develop and move
quickly northeastward, with isolated damaging winds probably the
main threat. Modest enhancement to the low-level wind field should
support 0-1 km SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 and perhaps some weak
low-level rotation. Accordingly, a brief tornado or two appears
possible. Even so, poor mid-level lapse rates may tend to limit
updraft strength, and the overall severe threat should remain fairly isolated/marginal.

..Gleason.. 02/13/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 131730
SWODY2
SPC AC 131728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across a
portion of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging wind appears to be the
main threat, although a tornado or two may also occur.

...The central through northern Florida Peninsula...

A series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within a broad
cyclonic upper-flow regime will move from the northern Gulf through
northern FL and southern GA. A couple of weak perturbations are
expected to develop along a stationary front that should persist
from the northern Gulf through northern FL.

Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F will reside in the warm
sector Sunday. It is likely that areas of showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing, potentially with a modest severe risk across a part
of northern or central FL. The location of the outflow boundary does
present some uncertainty regarding this forecast and where the best
severe potential will evolve. South of this activity, rich low-level
moisture and surface heating should boost MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. An
increase in the low-level jet is also expected during the day in
response to the approach of a more pronounced shortwave trough
(currently over northern Mexico). However, this feature will
deamplify as it moves through the northern Gulf region. Additional
storms will likely develop over the northeast Gulf and along the
residual outflow boundary during the day. Vertical wind profiles
with 35-40 kt effective bulk shear will support a few organized
storms with damaging wind the primary threat. Low-level hodograph
size will undergo a modest increase due to the strengthening
low-level jet, and this may support a risk for a couple of
tornadoes, especially with any storms that can interact with
modifying outflow boundaries.

..Dial.. 02/13/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140701
SWODY2
SPC AC 140659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast
Monday into Monday night. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps some hail all appear possible.

...Southeast...
A longwave upper trough will move eastward from the Plains to the
eastern CONUS on Monday. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to
advance from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and
Southeast through the day, eventually reaching the OH Valley and
Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent associated
with this shortwave trough should encourage a surface low initially
over the north-central Gulf of Mexico to develop northeastward
across the central Gulf Coast states through Monday evening while
gradually deepening. This surface low should continue developing
northeastward across the Carolinas Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. In tandem with the surface low, a warm front is expected to
lift northward across the FL Panhandle, southeastern AL, and
southern GA by Monday evening. A trailing cold front will also sweep
eastward across these regions from late Monday afternoon through
Monday night.

Models have come into better agreement depicting the northward
return of the low-level moisture Monday, with most suggesting that
at least mid 60s surface dewpoints should advect northward in tandem
with the warm front. Although mid-level lapse rates are not expected
to be steep, the combination of increasing low-level moisture and
diurnal heating will likely foster MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg across
the developing warm sector by late Monday afternoon. Both low- and
mid-level flow will likely strengthen through the day as the
shortwave trough approaches. Effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kt will
support supercells. A strong low-level jet should also enhance
effective SRH along/south of the warm front. Confidence has
increased that isolated severe storms may occur across the warm
sector beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the
evening. Given the possibility of supercells in a favorable shear
environment, higher probabilities for both tornadoes and damaging
winds have been introduced across parts of northern FL and southern
GA where confidence in sufficient destabilization is greatest.
Additional storms may congeal along the eastward-moving cold front
Monday evening, potentially posing a continued threat for isolated
damaging wind gusts.

Some guidance suggests that mid 60s surface dewpoints may advance
inland from the western Atlantic across portions of coastal NC/SC
Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a 50-60+ kt low-level jet overspreads this region. If this occurs, weak instability and strong
deep-layer shear may support surface-based storms posing an isolated
threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Other
isolated strong to severe storms also appear possible along the cold
front Monday night through the end of the period across much of the
FL Peninsula.

..Gleason.. 02/14/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 141731
SWODY2
SPC AC 141729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with a threat for mainly damaging wind
and a few tornadoes may impact a portion of the Southeast Monday
through Monday night.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough now approaching the southern High Plains will
reach the lower MS Valley Monday morning, before continuing through
a portion of the Southeast and southern Appalachians later Monday
afternoon into the overnight. In response to forcing accompanying
this feature, a weak surface low is forecast to develop along the
stationary front over the northern Gulf. This low will move from
just off the central Gulf coast by noon Monday, northeastward
through south/central GA during the evening and into the central
Carolinas Monday night. Trailing cold front will move through
southern GA and northern FL during the evening, reaching the
central/eastern Carolinas overnight. A warm front extending east of
the low will move northward through southern GA and into the eastern
Carolinas.

...Northern Florida through southern Georgia...

Rich low-level moisture will advect northward during the day along a strengthening southerly low-level jet with dewpoints from the upper
60s F in northern FL to mid 60s F in southern GA. This along with
diabatic heating should contribute to moderate instability with
MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg likely. Thunderstorms will be ongoing
within zone of primary forcing along the cold front across the
northern Gulf. This activity will spread northeast through the FL
Panhandle during the afternoon, reaching southern GA by late
afternoon and early evening. Potential will also exist for a few
discrete storms to develop along the pre-frontal warm conveyor belt. Strengthening vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk
shear will be supportive of organized structures including bowing
segments and supercells with damaging wind and a few tornadoes
possible.

...Eastern Carolinas...

A warm sector will spread inland through the eastern Carolinas,
overnight with low-mid 60s F dewpoints possible. Instability in this
region will remain marginal. Nevertheless, storms may develop within
zone of ascent along the warm conveyor belt where vertical wind
profiles will support a conditional risk for supercells and isolated
tornadoes. However, uncertainty still exists regarding whether or
not the boundary layer will destabilize sufficiently to support
surface-based storms, with most activity possibly remaining slightly
elevated. Will maintain MRGL risk category for now and monitor for
possible SLGT risk upgrade in upcoming day 1 outlooks.

..Dial.. 02/14/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 151715
SWODY2
SPC AC 151713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across
parts of the southern Florida Peninsula, with strong/gusty winds the
main threat.

...Synopsis...
A deep longwave trough will remain in place over the CONUS on
Tuesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move across
portions of the Mid Atlantic and New England during the day, as an
upstream shortwave amplifies over the southern Plains. A surface low
is forecast to move quickly from the Mid Atlantic into the Canadian
Maritimes by Tuesday night, as an attendant cold front sweeps
through the coastal Carolinas during the morning and through the
remainder of the FL Peninsula by late afternoon.

...Southern FL Peninsula...
The timing from the frontal passage remains somewhat uncertain, but
at least some portion of the southern FL Peninsula will likely
remain ahead of the front through at least the first part of the
day. Large-scale ascent will be negligible with the primary
shortwave trough exiting well to the north, but weak low-level
convergence along the boundary may support widely scattered
thunderstorms from morning into the early afternoon. MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 20-25 kt may support weakly
organized storms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts
and small hail.

...Far eastern NC...
Portions of far eastern NC may still be ahead of the primary cold
front at the start of the period Tuesday morning. However,
convection expected over the area late Monday night is expected to
generally move offshore before 12Z, and there currently appears to
be little opportunity for redevelopment along the front before it
moves offshore Tuesday morning. Some lingering severe threat cannot
be ruled out across the Outer Banks at the beginning of the period,
but this potential is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at
this time.

..Dean.. 02/15/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 091719
SWODY2
SPC AC 091717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible Sunday from southern Texas into
southern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over southwest TX/northern Mexico will
move east during the period and reach the Arklatex/lower MS Valley
by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low is
forecast to develop over northeastern Mexico and move into the
western Gulf of Mexico along a frontal zone. Weak elevated
instability is expected to develop and move east from parts of
central/southern TX eastward to the mouth of the MS River. Showers
and a few widely spaced, isolated thunderstorms are possible within
the aforementioned corridor. Severe weather is not expected.

..Smith.. 01/09/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 100556
SWODY2
SPC AC 100554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sat Jan 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few weak thunderstorms may affect parts of the northern Gulf Coast
on Monday. Severe weather is not expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will de-amplify as it moves from the lower MS valley
toward the Mid Atlantic on Monday, with a belt of strong mid and
upper-level southwesterlies over the southeastern states. At the
surface, a mostly stable air mass will remain in place over land,
despite a weak surface low moving across northern FL and southern GA
into Tuesday morning. Dewpoints downstream of the low are only
expected to reach the low 50s F over the FL Panhandle, beneath poor
lapse rates aloft. Weak warm/moist advection will occur above 850 mb
from LA to the Carolinas Monday night, and may aid isolated
thunderstorms from far southeast LA towards the coastal FL Panhandle
during the day. A few lightning flashes are possible into far
southern AL as well as minimal elevated instability develops.

..Jewell.. 01/10/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 111703
SWODY2
SPC AC 111702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude
thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS during the
forecast period. A mid-level trough and associated precipitation
are forecast influence weather conditions over the Pacific
Northwest. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the
mouth of the Columbia River, but thunderstorm coverage at this time
is forecast to be too low to warrant a thunderstorm area.

..Smith.. 01/11/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 131708
SWODY2
SPC AC 131706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected over the U.S. mainland on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An intense upper trough over the Plains early Thursday will evolve
into a strong, closed synoptic low over the Midwest by Friday
morning. A surface cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest
into the southern Plains during the morning, and shift eastward
through the period, extending from the Lake Michigan vicinity toward
the central Appalachians to the central Gulf coast by Friday
morning. A lack of meaningful Gulf return flow ahead of this system
will result in dry and stable conditions ahead of the front, and
thunderstorms are not expected.

An upper ridge will spread across the western U.S., with surface
high pressure in place over the Great Basin. This will result in
warm and dry conditions west of the Rockies.

..Leitman.. 01/13/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 251717
SWODY2
SPC AC 251715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible in a corridor across parts
of the northwestern Mississippi Delta region and adjacent
southeastern Arkansas into parts of middle Tennessee Friday,
accompanied by some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Moderate southwesterly low-level flow is expected to ongoing from
the TX Gulf Coast through the Mid-South early Friday morning,
induced by a shortwave trough traversing northern portions of the
southern Plains. A cold front will likely extend from a weak surface
low over East TX southwestward through the TX Hill Country. A
stationary boundary will also extend eastward from this low across
northern LA, central MS, and central AL. The moderate southwesterly
low-level flow atop the shallow air mass demarcated by these
boundaries will result in broad isentropic ascent, with showers and
isolated thunderstorms forecast to be ongoing from the Arklatex into
southwest TN/northwest GA early Friday morning.

Moderate vertical shear will be in place and few strong to
potentially severe storms are possible. Theses stronger storms are
more likely near the stationary boundary, where frontal circulations
could augment the broad isentropic ascent, promoting relatively
stronger updrafts. Additionally, the low-level stable layer near the
boundary will likely be shallow enough for strong downdrafts to
penetrate to the surface.

Storm intensity and coverage with this initial wave of showers and thunderstorms will likely be maximized during the early morning
before the shortwave progresses farther northeastward and becomes
displaced from the better low-level moisture.

Another shortwave is forecast to move quickly through the
southern/central Plains and mid MS Valley in the wake of the first.
As a result, moisture return is expected to continue after the
passage of the first shortwave, with the stationary boundary
becoming an effective warm front. Consensus among the guidance
places low 60s dewpoints from far northeast LA to the AL/TN border
by 12Z Saturday morning. Low-level flow will also increase across
the Mid-South and TN Valley, with the resulting isentropic ascent
contributing to another round of showers and thunderstorms. Most of
this activity will be elevated north of the warm front and overall
buoyancy will be modest. Even so, moderate to strong vertical shear
will be in place. Consequently, a few updrafts may persist long
enough to become better organized and strong enough to produce hail.

..Mosier.. 02/25/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 261730
SWODY2
SPC AC 261729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from north-central Texas
across northeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas Saturday evening
through early Sunday morning.

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Lead shortwave trough is expected to extend from the Upper Great
Lakes into the central Appalachians early Saturday, before
continuing quickly northeastward in Quebec and off the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. Active upper pattern will push another
shortwave through the central/southern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis
associated with this second shortwave trough will likely result in a
low over the central High Plains by late morning, with quick
northeastward progression across the central Plains thereafter.

A stalled frontal boundary associated with Friday's system will
likely extend from near the AR/LA/MS border intersection
southwestward into the TX Hill Country. This boundary is then
forecast to begin moving northward as a warm front, supported by the strengthening low-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave.
By late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening, low 60s dewpoints
will likely be near the Red River. Persistent isentropic ascent
throughout this moist warm sector is expected to result in showers
and thunderstorms north of the front across eastern OK/western AR,
beginning Saturday evening.

Convective inhibition associated with a modest residual EML could
temper overall storm coverage, with dry air entrainment also
limiting updraft strength and persistence of those storms that do
develop. However, moderate to strong vertical shear could aid in
updraft organization, somewhat countering the weak buoyancy,
resulting in the low probability for a few stronger, longer-lived
storms. A few of these stronger storms could produce hail.

Additionally, storm development is possible early Sunday morning as
the cold front associated with the previously mentioned surface low
moves across central/eastern OK and northwest/north-central TX. The
EML is expected to persist across the region, with warm and dry
mid-level conditions potentially capping any deep convection along
the front. However, these conditions also foster strong buoyancy if
a storm can develop. Vertical shear over the region will also remain
strong. This result in a conditional risk for severe hail along the
front from eastern OK into north TX early Sunday morning.

..Mosier.. 02/26/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 270614
SWODY2
SPC AC 270613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TX TO WESTERN TN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from northeast Texas into western
Tennessee on Sunday. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard, but
some hail and a couple tornadoes can not be ruled out.

...Arklatex to TN vicinity...

A series of upper shortwave troughs will pivot eastward from the
northern Plains through the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile another
upper shortwave trough will become cut-off from northern-stream
flow, with a closed low developing over AZ. This upper low will
migrate toward the southern Rockies through 12z Monday. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this upper pattern
will persist over the southern Plains into the Midwest and
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will extend from central MO southwestward into western north TX Sunday morning. This front will
track southeast through the period, extending from the central
Appalachians to northern LA and south-central TX by Monday morning.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from around 63-68 F will be in
place. Low level convergence will remain poor through the period in
the absence of stronger surface cyclogenesis. Additionally,
widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit
heating. Modest midlevel lapse rates, greatest over the Arklatex
vicinity, will aid in weak destabilization along/ahead of the cold
front.

There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty in how much pre-frontal/surface-based convection will develop on Sunday. It is
possible that a majority of convection will be elevated, or quickly
become elevated/undercut by the cold front. This is due in part to
the rather nebulous upper forcing, as well as boundary-parallel
deep-layer flow, coupled with weak directional shear. Forecast
soundings across parts of the Marginal risk area also continue to
show at least weak capping around 850-700 mb. Nevertheless, strong
effective shear and fast storm motion could result in isolated
damaging gusts in line segments near the cold front.

Isolated hail is possible Sunday morning into the afternoon across
parts of the Arklatex where midlevel lapse rates will be steeper,
and MLCAPE greater. While a couple of tornadoes can not be ruled out
across the Marginal risk area, either from a warm sector cell should
one develop, or from mesovortex formation along line segments, this
threat remains very conditional, precluding greater than 2% probs.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 271727
SWODY2
SPC AC 271725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from parts
of Texas into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts should
be the main hazard, but some hail and a couple tornadoes may also
occur.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will move eastward across the
CONUS on Sunday. One such shortwave trough is forecast to advance
from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes by
Sunday evening. Another shortwave trough should develop slowly
southeastward from the Great Basin to the Southwest, eventually
closing off over AZ/NM late Sunday night. The primary surface low is
expected to develop northeastward across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes and into southern Ontario by Sunday evening, in tandem with
the previously mentioned shortwave trough. A cold front extending
southward from this low should be located over parts of the lower OH
Valley into the Mid-South and southern Plains Sunday morning. This
cold front will shift slowly southeastward through the period across
these regions, and it will likely provide a focus for convection.

A fairly broad swath of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds
should overlie the frontal zone, but stronger forcing associated
with both shortwave troughs is likely to remain north of the warm
sector. Still, forecast soundings from northeast TX into the lower
MS Valley/Mid-South and continuing into parts of KY indicate a
veering and strengthening wind profile with height through mid
levels. Upwards of 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear appears likely,
which is clearly sufficient for organized storms, including
supercells. However, two potentially limiting factors remain
apparent. One is the orientation of the front nearly parallel with
the southwesterly mid-level flow. Tendency may be for storms to form
along the front and then get quickly undercut while becoming
elevated. The other limitation may be generally weak low/mid-level
lapse rates and related modest instability. Even so, the presence of
surface dewpoints generally in the 62-68 F range coupled with some
diurnal heating south of the front should support MLCAPE around
250-1000 J/kg by Sunday afternoon.

Current expectations are for mainly elevated storms to be ongoing
across parts of the lower OH Valley Sunday morning in a strong
low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development
appears likely along much of the length of the cold front by late
Sunday morning or early afternoon. Short bowing line segments may
pose an isolated damaging wind threat as they move
east-northeastward. Even though low-level flow should tend to veer
to southwesterly across much of the warm sector through the day,
enough low-level shear may remain to pose a threat for a couple
tornadoes with either semi-discrete storms or circulations embedded
within the line segments. Eventually, this isolated severe threat
should wane across the lower MS Valley and TN Valley Sunday evening
as storms become mainly elevated behind the front. Finally, some
hail threat may exist with elevated storms both Sunday morning and
Sunday night across parts of TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity.
Mid-level lapse rates should be modestly steepened across this
region in advance of the shortwave trough over the Southwest, and
deep-layer shear will likely be rather strong and uni-directional,
potentially supporting elevated supercells.

..Gleason.. 02/27/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 280517
SWODY2
SPC AC 280515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the southern Rockies will migrate eastward to the
southern Plains on Monday. This will maintain moderate southwesterly
deep-layer flow across the south-central and southeastern U.S.,
resulting in continued warm advection atop a surface cold front
advancing southeastward across southern and eastern TX to the
southeastern U.S. A pocket of moderately steep midlevel lapse rates
will exist over parts of central to southeastern TX early in the
forecast period, where weak elevated instability will exist to the
cool side of the front. Ongoing elevated thunderstorms could result
in small hail with stronger cells, but this activity should remain
sub-severe and diminish by midday. Further east toward the central
Gulf coast, a capping inversion around 700 mb should limit any warm
sector convection for much of the day. A couple of strong storms
could develop toward 00z as the cold front approaches, but this
activity will quickly become elevated. Poor lapse rates will limit
hail potential and weak low level winds should preclude any stronger
gusts.

..Leitman.. 02/28/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 281723
SWODY2
SPC AC 281722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low over NM will move slowly eastward across the
southern Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid-level
west-southwesterly flow will be maintained over much of the southern
Plains and Southeast through the period, as a separate upper trough
moves eastward from the Great Lakes/OH Valley across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic through the period. A surface cold front is
expected to continue moving south-southeastward across TX and much
of the Southeast through the day. A pocket of modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates and weak elevated instability may persist
Monday morning across parts of coastal/southeast TX to the north of
the surface front. Ongoing elevated storms across this region may
pose a small hail risk, but this activity should diminish by midday.
Towards the central Gulf Coast, very poor mid-level lapse rates will
likely inhibit robust updrafts, but isolated lightning flashes with
convection along or just ahead of the front may occur. These poor
lapse rates, weak low-level winds, and limited instability all
suggest that any gusty wind threat should remain too isolated for
even low severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 02/28/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 011729
SWODY2
SPC AC 011728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Mon Mar 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low is forecast to move eastward from the southern
Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast on Tuesday. A belt
of moderate to strong mid-level westerly winds will be maintained
across these regions along and ahead of the upper trough/low.
Low-level warm advection should also occur along the central Gulf
Coast states through much of the period. Elevated thunderstorms may
develop in this regime, with a surface front likely remaining
offshore through at least late Tuesday afternoon. A weak surface low
should eventually develop slightly inland Tuesday evening/night
across the FL Panhandle and southern GA vicinity. A warm front
attendant to the surface low may lift northward across these regions
late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Fairly strong
low/mid-level flow and a veering wind profile with height will
likely be present, but uncertainty remains regarding the degree of destabilization and potential for surface-based storms. At this
point, the forecast low-level moisture still appears a little too
marginal to include low severe probabilities across any part of the
FL Panhandle.

..Gleason.. 03/01/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 021710
SWODY2
SPC AC 021709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Tue Mar 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low located to the west of southern CA/Baja Wednesday
morning will move east and reach southern UT/northern AZ by daybreak
Thursday. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast over
the eastern Pacific in association with the mid-level cold pocket.
This area of activity will probably move ashore coastal southern CA
during the late morning through mid afternoon as strong large-scale
ascent and modestly steep lapse rates overspread southern coastal
CA.
Farther east, a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will depart the
Carolina coast during the morning. A rain shield is forecast for
coastal SC during the morning within a zone of strong low-level warm
air advection well north of a surface frontal zone. Near and south
of the front, weak instability may enable a low chance for a couple
of thunderstorms over the central portion of the FL Peninsula
primarily during the morning hours before weakening
convergence/upper support diminish by the early afternoon.

..Smith.. 03/02/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 021710
SWODY2
SPC AC 021709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Tue Mar 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low located to the west of southern CA/Baja Wednesday
morning will move east and reach southern UT/northern AZ by daybreak
Thursday. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast over
the eastern Pacific in association with the mid-level cold pocket.
This area of activity will probably move ashore coastal southern CA
during the late morning through mid afternoon as strong large-scale
ascent and modestly steep lapse rates overspread southern coastal
CA.
Farther east, a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will depart the
Carolina coast during the morning. A rain shield is forecast for
coastal SC during the morning within a zone of strong low-level warm
air advection well north of a surface frontal zone. Near and south
of the front, weak instability may enable a low chance for a couple
of thunderstorms over the central portion of the FL Peninsula
primarily during the morning hours before weakening
convergence/upper support diminish by the early afternoon.

..Smith.. 03/02/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may be capable of large hail over parts the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma on Thursday during the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move from the Four Corners to central OK during
the period. A surface low will develop over northwest TX during the
day in response to the approaching upper system. Southerly
low-level flow will advect marginal moisture northward into parts of
western OK/eastern TX Panhandle to the east of a dryline. Surface
dewpoints are forecast in the 45-50 deg F range beneath steepening
700-500 mb lapse rates (around 8-9 deg C/km) as rapid dynamic
mid-level cooling occurs during the late afternoon to early evening.
Models vary a bit regarding moisture quality but it seems plausible
250-750 J/kg MUCAPE will develop during the 22z-03z period coupled
with effective shear 25-35 kt. A few more intense updrafts
(multicellular to weak supercell structure) may be capable of a risk
for large hail before the activity weakens while moving east into
central OK during the late evening.

..Smith.. 03/03/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 041633
SWODY2
SPC AC 041632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Thu Mar 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough initially over OK/TX Friday morning will
weaken as it moves southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico and becomes
embedded within the base of a larger-scale trough over eastern North
America. A weak surface low near the Red River will fill/weaken
during the day as a cool front pushes southeast across TX during the
day and reaches the TX Gulf Coast by mid evening. Isolated, weak
thunderstorms are possible mainly during the morning into the
afternoon from southeast OK into east TX. Weak instability will
likely preclude strong storms from developing. Elsewhere,
stable/dry conditions across a large part of the Lower 48 will lead
to quiescent weather.

..Smith.. 03/04/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 051712
SWODY2
SPC AC 051710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Fri Mar 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States Saturday and Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico will move to the
Bahamian Archipelago and continue to be absorbed within a
larger-scale mid-level trough over eastern North America during the
day-2 period. Southerly low-level flow over the FL Straits will
advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the southern part of
the FL Peninsula during the day. Scattered showers and isolated
weak thunderstorms are possible from the Everglades northeast to the
Space Coast. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will be pervasive
across much of the area east of the Rockies.

..Smith.. 03/05/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 060657
SWODY2
SPC AC 060656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Sat Mar 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may occur along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Sunday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States Sunday and Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Great Plains on
Sunday, as an upper-level low moves southward across the
northeastern Pacific. Southwest mid-level flow, associated with the
Pacific low pressure system, will be in place across much of the
western U.S. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread the Pacific
Northwest as a lapse rates steepen across western Washington and
western Oregon. These two conditions will make isolated thunderstorm development possible near the coasts of the Pacific Northwest today
and tonight. Instability will be too weak for a severe threat.
Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm
development is not expected Sunday or Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 03/06/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 061654
SWODY2
SPC AC 061653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Sat Mar 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A quiescent weather pattern for thunderstorms will exist for much of
the Lower 48 on Sunday. Dry/stable conditions will exist over most
of the continental U.S. and be influenced by surface high pressure
and offshore flow over the Atlantic Seaboard and Gulf of Mexico.
The exception will be along the parts of the West Coast, where a
mid-upper trough is forecast to approach the northern half of CA and
OR/WA during the period. Very cold mid-level temperatures may
support fleeting pockets of instability near the immediate coast of
OR/WA as low-topped convection moves ashore. A few thunderstorms
are possible with this activity.

..Smith.. 03/06/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the West
Coast Monday and Monday night, but no severe thunderstorms are
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Mississippi Valley
on Monday as an upper-level low moves southward across the northeast
Pacific. Between the two features, southwest mid-level flow will be
in place across most of the western and central U.S. Strong
large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level system in the
northeast Pacific will overspread the Pacific Northwest. This
combined with steep lapse rates will make conditions favorable for
isolated light strikes along the coast. This potential will exist
along the coast from Washington southward to the coast of northern
California. Instability will be weak and no severe threat is
forecast. Elsewhere across the continental United States,
thunderstorm development is not expected Monday or Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/07/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 071716
SWODY2
SPC AC 071714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will slowly move southward while remaining centered
to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast during the day-2 period.
A series of shortwave troughs will move through the base of the
eastern Pacific trough and episodically move ashore the northern
CA/OR coast. Relatively steep lapse rates owing to cold mid-level
temperatures will result in intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy
near the immediate coast. Low-topped convection embedded within
areas of showers may yield a few lightning flashes. Elsewhere, a
progressive low-amplitude flow regime will exist across the Lower 48
with generally dry/stable conditions.

..Smith.. 03/07/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 081715
SWODY2
SPC AC 081713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are forecast mainly along the West Coast Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out over Iowa
and neighboring states Tuesday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough will exist over the western CONUS on Tuesday,
with a strong mid and upper jet nosing across the Four Corners area
late. Cold air aloft on the cyclonic side of this jet will maximize
instability from CA into western OR, with heating providing
steepening lapse rates. Widespread precipitation is expected
throughout the period from western OR southward across the Sierra,
with a few thunderstorms developing during the daytime. Winds will
veer with height, but not be particularly strong. While a weakly
rotating storm or two is possible into the central/northern CA, the
severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities at this
time due to marginal shear and weak instability.

Elsewhere, a lead shortwave trough will move quickly northeast
across the central Plains and into Mid MO and Upper MS valleys
overnight, with a weak low along the KS/NE border. Warm advection
with a southwesterly low level jet may provide enough moistening for
isolated thunderstorms, however, forecast soundings indicate capping
will be a concern.

..Jewell.. 03/08/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 091721
SWODY2
SPC AC 091720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Tue Mar 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms producing mainly large hail will be
possible from northern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri, Wednesday evening and overnight.

...Synopsis...
As an upper low drops south along the CA Coast, strong southwest
flow aloft will increase from the southwestern states into the
Plains, with a leading low-amplitude wave over the central Plains by
00Z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern MN into
northern KS at 00Z, with southwesterly surface winds bringing 50s F
dewpoints north toward the boundary. A dryline will extend from
eastern KS into western OK and west TX at 00Z, with upper 50s F
dewpoints and heating along it.

The primary surface low will move from the MN/IA area at 00Z to Lake
Superior by 12Z Thursday, as the lead wave continues rapidly
northeastward. Lift along the trailing fronts and a moistening air
mass will provide the primary focus for thunderstorms late
Wednesday.

...KS...OK...MO...
A warming, but capped air mass will be maintained during the day
over the Slight Risk area, with a shallow moist boundary layer
depicted by forecast soundings. By around 03Z, lift will increase
along the cold front into northeast KS, and zippering southwestward intersecting along the dryline. A 50-60 kt low-level jet will aid
moisture transport and theta-e advection, with a few strong to
severe storms possible. These storms will mostly be elevated, with
strong deep-layer shear aiding longevity and forward tilt. A strong
wind gust is possible as well with any storms that remain south of
the sagging cold front.

Farther south along the dryline into western OK, a conditional risk
of hail may exist during the late afternoon. Strong heating and
surface convergence may prove sufficient to instigate a cell, but
forecast soundings show capping quickly becomes a concern. Any
threat would likely be short lived, with the better threat farther
north along the KS border during the evening.

..Jewell.. 03/09/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A threat of mainly hail may exist Thursday from northeast Oklahoma
into southern Illinois. Isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough will exist over the southwestern states with a
broad belt of strong southwesterlies extending across the Plains and
into the MS and OH Valleys. Early in the period, a fast-moving
shortwave trough will move across the upper Great Lakes, with subtle
height rises in its wake.

At the surface, low pressure associated with the lead wave will move
from Lake Superior into Quebec, with a cold front trailing
southwestward across IN, IL, southern MO and OK. Ahead of this
front, mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will be common, with a few lower
60s F possible from the Ozarks southwestward into TX.

Given a degree of warming aloft during the day and the
aforementioned height rises, large-scale support for severe storms
will be minimal. However, strong deep-layer shear will remain
situated along the length of the slow-moving cold front, and at
least 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast as lapse rates aloft will
remain sufficiently steep. Low-level profiles may remain somewhat
stable or marginally buoyant per forecast soundings, but even
elevated storms will have the potential to produce marginal hail.
Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, and marginally unstable boundary-layer, isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with any fast-moving cells.

Areas of storms may be ongoing early in the day from MO into IL and
IN, with hail threat. Further development is possible near the
boundary and extending southwestward through afternoon, and into the
evening as warm advection persists atop the surface layer.

..Jewell.. 03/10/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 111726
SWODY2
SPC AC 111724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible Friday and Friday night across parts of
west Texas, far eastern New Mexico and into western Oklahoma.
Isolated hail is possible in surrounding states from southern Kansas
into southwest Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move slowly eastward across the
Southwest, with the upper low near the Four Corners by 12Z Saturday.
An intense cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will also move
across AZ and NM, with height falls increasing into west TX late in
the period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Gulf of
Mexico.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will extend roughly along
I-40, from TX across OK and into TN with 50s and 60s F dewpoints to
the south. There is model uncertainty regarding the position of this
boundary and therefore SBCAPE and tornado/wind potential. Low
pressure will develop ahead of the upper trough, over NM during the
day and toward the TX border by 12Z Saturday when a cold front will
take shape. While sporadic strong storms are expected during the day
from OK into KS and MO, the primary severe risk will occur after 03Z
across eastern NM and west TX.

...Southern Plains...
An extensive band of rain and thunderstorms is expected to be
ongoing Friday morning in the warm advection regime, with isolated
hail possible from northern OK into southern KS and extending east
into southern MO and northern AR.

It is uncertain how much additional activity will form, if any,
during the afternoon for the remainder of central OK into northwest
TX. While moist and unstable, a capping inversion will exist with
little in the way of lift. However, will maintain low probabilities
for this conditional risk.

The main threat of severe storms will be after 03Z ahead of the
approaching upper trough and cold front. Storms are expected to form
over far eastern NM and into western TX where low-level moisture
backs westward toward the surface trough. While some capping is
likely due to time of day, this cap will be surmountable given the
forcing for ascent. Shear profiles will favor supercells, producing
large hail and perhaps a tornado where capping is least problematic. Fast-moving storms may also produce isolated wind damage.

..Jewell.. 03/11/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 130652
SWODY2
SPC AC 130651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AN AREA
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may affect a portion of the lower
Mississippi Valley area, centered on the Delta region on Sunday.
Locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur,
mainly during the evening hours.

...Synopsis...
A large upper low is forecast to be exiting the Rockies and moving
slowly into the central Plains Sunday, as a second low -- initially
crossing the eastern Pacific -- digs southeastward to coastal
northern California late. Meanwhile, troughing over the Northeast
will shift eastward with time, across the Canadian Maritimes and
western Atlantic.

At the surface, a weakening Pacific front -- initially crossing
eastern portions of the southern Plains -- will move eastward toward
the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak wave may develop along the
front over Arkansas during the late afternoon/early evening, and
move eastward to near Memphis through early Monday morning.

...Lower Mississippi Valley region and vicinity...
A near-frontal band of rain showers is forecast to advance across
eastern portions of Oklahoma and Texas through the day Sunday, as
the weakening Pacific front advances. Limited instability suggests
only local/occasional lighting for the most part, into the afternoon
hours.

As modest heating contributes to some boundary-layer destabilization
and eventually very weak surface-based CAPE across roughly the
eastern half of Arkansas by late afternoon, a few stronger
convective cells may evolve. This zone of somewhat more robust
convection will then shift across the Mississippi Delta region
through the region, and eventually portions of western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi.

Though minimal CAPE will very likely be a limiting factor,
deep-layer shear (both speed and directional shear) suggests that
any updraft which could take root within a locally/slightly more
unstable environment ahead of the front would likely acquire
rotation. Locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, along with
a tornado or two. Otherwise, a few stronger updrafts within the
frontal band of convection may be capable of locally gusty/damaging
winds, or a brief QLCS-type tornado. Risk -- though very
local/limited -- may persist through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 03/13/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 131729
SWODY2
SPC AC 131727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, mainly late in the
afternoon and evening across parts of central and southeastern
Arkansas, where they may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and a
couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Within a southern branch of split westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific, it appears that a broad mid-level low,
currently centered to the west/southwest of the Four Corners, will
remain progressive through this period. Surrounding troughing is
forecast to remain in phase with a belt of westerlies emanating from
the subtropical Pacific, and models indicate that a significant
upstream mid-latitude short wave trough will dig into the Pacific
coast region by 12Z Wednesday. As a couple of vigorous smaller
scale perturbations pivot around its eastern through northern, and
southern through eastern, periphery, the center of the closed low is
forecast to redevelop northeast of the southern Rockies into the
central Great Plains Sunday through Sunday night. This will occur
to the south of ridging within the northern branch, in the wake of a
vigorous northern branch short wave trough forecast to dig across
the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

In response to these developments, cold surface ridging likely will
be reinforced across much of the northern Great Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region through the northern and middle
Atlantic Seaboard, while warmer but dry conditions persist across
the Southeast and eastern Gulf of Mexico in association with
lingering surface ridging. Across southern portions of the Great
Plains, it appears that an occluding surface low center, initially
over western Kansas, will migrate northwestward and weaken, while
another low center forms to its southwest and migrates east
northeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region.

Models indicate that a Pacific front trailing the occluding low
center will surge east of the southern Great Plains during the day
Sunday, but weaken while doing so. As it does, it appears that a
relatively narrow moist, warm sector will generally become confined
to portions of Louisiana into Arkansas by peak afternoon heating,
before shifting across the lower Mississippi Valley overnight.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Forecast soundings indicate only weak to modest boundary-layer
warming within the moistening warm sector, beneath relatively warm
mid-level layers which probably will limit peak mixed-layer CAPE to
around 500 J/kg or less. However, in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, the environment probably will become at least
conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm
development.

In association with the perturbation pivoting around the southern
through eastern periphery of the southern branch mid-level low,
models continue to suggest that an area of lower pressure or a weak
frontal wave could become a focus for strengthening large-scale
ascent across southwestern through northeastern Arkansas late Sunday
afternoon and evening. This may be accompanied by southerly 850 mb
jet strengthening from 30-50 kt, which could contribute to low-level
hodographs supportive of supercell structures posing a risk for
damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. Initially, storm
development may be largely discrete in nature before perhaps
evolving into a broken line while spreading eastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley overnight.

..Kerr.. 03/13/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 140701
SWODY2
SPC AC 140700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe risk is not evident at this time across the U.S.
on Monday.

...Discussion...
An upper low initially over the central Plains is forecast to shift
northward, weakening with time ahead of the next upper system
progged to dig southeastward across California and Nevada through
the day, and into Arizona late.

At the surface, a weakening front will continue to dissipate as it
shifts eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. A cold front is
also forecast to move southeastward across California and Nevada,
and eventually into the Desert Southwest, ahead of the
aforementioned upper system

Showers are forecast across California and into the Great Basin
during the day, in conjunction with the advance of the upper system.
An occasional/embedded lightning flash may occur, but any coverage
should remain too sparse to warrant a thunder area.

In the central Gulf Coast region/Mid South, a zone of weak
convection will likely shift west-to-east across the area, in tandem
with the weakening surface front. However, warm air in the 700 to
600mb layer should hinder deeper convection/lightning across much of
the area. A stronger cell or two may occur during the afternoon
near peak heating, across the northeastern Mississippi/northern Alabama/southern Tennessee area. However, while a locally stronger
wind gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out entirely, any
severe-weather potential appears too low to justify issuance of a
severe risk area attm.

..Goss.. 03/14/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 141709
SWODY2
SPC AC 141708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong-to-severe storms are possible across parts of
east-central Mississippi into northern Alabama Monday afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts, hail and possibly a tornado may
accompany these storms.

...Mississippi/Alabama Vicinity...

A somewhat conditional severe threat appears possible Monday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern MS into northern
AL. An upper low and associated shortwave trough over the central
Plains/Ozarks vicinity will lift northward through the period. This
will result in neutral to slightly falling heights across the TN
Valley. However, strong deep layer southwesterly flow will remain
over the region, and 0-6 km shear profiles will support supercells.
At the surface, a weak low will migrate east, roughly along the I-70
corridor from KS into IL. A weak cold front will push eastward
across western TN and northern MS through 00z, while a backdoor cold
front drops southwest from eastern TN/GA and stalls over far
northeast AL into central GA. This will result in a narrow warm
sector across parts of MS into AL, characterized by low-to-mid 60s
dewpoints. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, around 6.5-7
C/km, but increasing low level moisture and surface heating into the
70s should result in 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across the outlook area.

Convergence along the cold front will be weak, and strong forcing
associated with the upper low will be lifting north of the region.
As a result, storm development will be mostly diurnally-driven and
more intense cells will be limited in coverage. Nevertheless, a
small corridor will exist where favorable instability and shear will
overlap such that if a cell does develop, it could become severe.
Low level directional shear will be weak, but speed shear increases
quickly with height such that low level hodographs will be modest
but favorably curved. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
will be the main threat with any stronger cells that develop. Weak
lapse rates and modest instability will limit large hail potential,
but a couple of near-1 inch hail stones could accompany any severe
cell as well.

...Central MO Vicinity...

Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon as
the negatively-tilted shortwave trough lifts northward across the
region. A west-east oriented surface boundary, associated with a
weakening surface low shifting eastward across the region will be
the focus of this development. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will
result in weak elevated instability amid moderate shear. While these
storms will remain elevated above a cool boundary layer, some small,
sub-severe hail could accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 03/14/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 151731
SWODY2
SPC AC 151729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the lower
Mississippi Valley through the central Gulf Coast states through the
afternoon and early evening on Tuesday. Strong wind gusts, hail and
a tornado or two are possible with this activity.

Additional severe storms are expected across parts of Texas,
Oklahoma and Kansas late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Large hail will be the main hazards with this activity, though
strong gusts and a tornado can not be ruled out.

...Synopsis...

A broad swath of moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will extend
from the southern Plains to the TN and OH Valley vicinities, ahead
of a compact upper low ejecting eastward from the lower CO Valley to
the southern Plains. Strong capping across the southern Plains will
limit thunderstorm potential until the evening/overnight hours
across the southern Plains. Further east, thunderstorms will be
ongoing across parts of the lower MS Valley into GA in a warm
advection regime.

...Southern Plains to Ozarks vicinity...

A midlevel ridge will reside across the region through the
afternoon. This will maintain a capping inversion and limit
convection through the first half of the period. By evening, the
upper low/shortwave trough will eject eastward, resulting in falling
heights and cooling aloft. Southerly low level flow will transport
Gulf moisture northward ahead of a developing surface low over the
southern High Plains. Upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will spread
across much of central and northern TX and into the eastern
two-thirds of OK and much of AR, with lower values sneaking into
southeast KS and southern MO after 00z. As the surface low
progresses eastward, a Pacific front/dryline will spread across
western OK/TX, and become oriented roughly along/to the east of the
I-35 corridor in OK/TX by 12z Wednesday.

After 00z, and more likely after 06z, increasing moisture beneath
very steep midlevel lapse rates amid strong ascent and favorable
deep layer wind profiles will mainly support large hail potential.
This potential will extend along the eastward-advancing cold front
across western/central TX, in storm clusters developing near the
surface low, and along a west-east oriented warm front near the
OK/KS border into northwest AR. Convection will likely remain
somewhat elevated along the cold front given timing during the
overnight hours, and storm motion vectors that could favor
undercutting by the front. However, strong low level shear and
enlarged low level hodographs will support rotating cells,
especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Should a storm become
rooted in the boundary layer on the warm side of the front, a
tornado or damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out.

...Central Gulf Coast States...

Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast region, in an area of persistent low-level warm advection/weak
ascent. With time, a backdoor front over Georgia, and the weakening
Pacific cool front crossing the central Gulf Coast region, will
loosely consolidate into a west-to-east warm front, that will lift
slowly northward through the afternoon and evening as the western
synoptic system ejects into the southern Plains.

Mid-60s surface dewpoints will reside across much of the region,
with temperatures warming into the 70s, providing a broad area of
500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE. Larger-scale forcing will remain weak across
the region as the upper trough remains well west of the area.
However, effective shear greater than 35 kt and modest midlevel
lapse rates will support periodically organized convection.
South/southwesterly flow beneath 700 mb will remain modest, less
than 25-30 kt in most cases, but small, curved low level hodographs
could result in some weakly rotating cells. Periodic clusters of
storms across this region through afternoon/early evening will
likely occur, with a few storms possibly becoming transiently
severe. Locally damaging winds, marginal hail, or even a tornado
cannot be ruled out. Given the transient threat over a large area, a
Marginal risk will be maintained.

..Leitman.. 03/15/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into
Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into
Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes
(several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense
damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe
storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during
the afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Synopsis...

A compact and intense upper low over the southern Plains will eject
eastward to the Ozark Plateau/lower MS Valley on Wednesday. A
surface low centered over northeast OK will develop east/northeast
in tandem with the upper system. At the beginning of the period, a
cold front will extend southward from the low across eastern OK into
eastern TX before arcing southwest into south TX. A warm front
draped northwest to southeast from near the MO/AR border into
northern AL will gradually lift northward through the period. There
is some uncertainty in how far north this boundary will lift across
northern GA/eastern TN given strong cold air damming across the
Carolinas until very late in the period. The cold front should push
eastward to Middle TN/central AL and the western FL Panhandle.
Across the broad warm sector, dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are
expected beneath steepening lapse rates and intense vertical shear,
resulting in an environment capable of supporting a widespread
severe weather outbreak.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...

Convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning near the surface low,
southward along the cold front, and eastward along the northward
retreating warm front from central AR into northern MS/AL. Any
convection north of the warm front will be elevated and pose a
threat mainly for large hail. However, shear profiles will improve
through the morning and surface-based storms near the triple point
and along the warm front are possible and will increase the risk for
damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Further south along the cold
front across eastern OK into eastern TX, convection will move into
an increasing unstable and moist environment. A line of supercells
and line segments is expected to develop as convection moves into AR
and approaches the Sabine Valley. All severe hazards are expected
with this activity from Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

...Lower MS Valley into AL/GA...

Multiple rounds of intense, severe convection will be possible,
mainly across MS/AL on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours.
Convection will intensify along the eastward progressing cold front
across central and eastern AR/LA during the late morning/afternoon
as it encounters effective shear greater than 60 kt, MLCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Fast storm
motion, with 925-700 mb flow greater than 40 kt will support
widespread damaging gusts with some gusts greater than 65 kt
expected. Large hail (some greater than 2 inch in diameter,
especially from the AR/MO border into northern LA, southwest TN and northern/central MS) is also expected with this activity.

Further east across northeast LA into MS and AL a more concerning
scenario appears possible. Most forecast guidance agrees that a
round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected. This activity is
expected to develop in weaker ascent, driven by heating and low
level warm advection. Strong 0-3 km shear near 30-40 kt will already
be in place with enlarged low level hodographs evident. Given weaker
forcing, this activity will have an opportunity to remain more
discrete and any cell will quickly become a supercell capable of
producing strong tornadoes. As a 40-50 kt low level jet increases
around 00-03z, intense supercells are expected to advance eastward
along with the cold front across MS and into AL overnight. This will
bring a second round of significant severe storms capable of intense
tornadoes, large hail and intense damaging winds across much of
MS/AL. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk
could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z
tonight.

..Leitman.. 03/16/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is possible on
Thursday from parts of east-central Georgia northeastward across
South Carolina and North Carolina. Significant tornadoes, wind
damage and large hail will be possible from morning into afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of the eastern
Gulf Coast into the southern and central Appalachians.

...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida...
A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the
Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward
into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located
from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This
boundary will move northward across central and eastern North
Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface
dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F.
As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is
expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern
North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided
by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large
hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid
morning hours.

Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with
the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central
Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward
into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of
the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to
2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative
helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely
with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible
along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum
threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional
outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes
are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector
from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina.

Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during
the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability
continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms
will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward
across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should
have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70
kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line
segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes,
wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes
will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the
line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by
widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South
Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater
than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line
segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as
the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the
morning and early afternoon.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley on
Thursday. Ahead of the system, a line of strong thunderstorms may be
ongoing at the start of the period from parts of far eastern
Tennessee northward into far western Virginia. Behind the line,
surface temperature will warm during the day resulting in a corridor
of moderate instability, from eastern Kentucky into the western
Virginias. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent,
steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt will be
favorable for severe storms. Large hail, wind damage and a tornado
or two will be possible across the upper Ohio Valley during the
afternoon.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 181656
SWODY2
SPC AC 181654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...South Florida...

A cold front will be situated over south Florida by 12Z Friday. A
moist boundary layer with upper 60s F surface dewpoints will reside
in the warm sector with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. A few showers will
occur within the zone of shallow frontal forcing. Point-forecast
soundings indicate an inversion near 700 mb, and with deeper forcing
likely to remain well north of warm sector, most convection is
expected to remain shallow. However, there is some chance for an
isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore by late
morning.

...Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies...

A few thunderstorms will be possible during the day, mainly near the
Pacific NW coast in association with cold air aloft and steep lapse
rates in vicinity of an inland-moving shortwave trough. Other
thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front moving through the
northern Rockies during the afternoon. In both cases, very weak
instability suggests coverage will remain sparse.

..Dial.. 03/18/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 191706
SWODY2
SPC AC 191704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not anticipated over the U.S. on Saturday

...Synopsis...
A dry, continental air mass will be in place across much of the
central and eastern CONUS early Saturday morning. Some modification
is anticipated along the southern and western periphery of this air
mass as southerly low-level flow increases ahead of an upper trough
traversing the western CONUS. However, low-level moisture will
remain well removed from the forcing for ascent associated with this
upper trough, and no thunderstorms are expected across the central
and eastern CONUS.

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible within the
frontal band attendant to the western CONUS upper trough as it moves
from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies. A few deeper
convective cores may also develop within the persistent forcing for
ascent in the wake of the lead frontal band. Steep mid-level lapse
rates throughout the region will contribute to modest instability
and the potential for a few storms to become deep enough for
lightning production.

..Mosier.. 03/19/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 200454
SWODY2
SPC AC 200453

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected over the U.S. on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the western U.S. will develop southward,
forming a closed low over the Four Corners region by Monday morning.
As the trough develops southward, it will merge stronger southern
stream flow near the international border/northwest Mexico and
moderate southwesterly flow will overspread the southern
Rockies/High Plains vicinity by the end of the period. In response
to strong height falls, a surface low is forecast to develop over
eastern NM and shift eastward into the TX Panhandle overnight, while
a weak cold front drops southward through the central Plains. Modest
low level moisture, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 40s, will
exist ahead of the surface low/front across much of TX/OK/KS,
precluding much in the way of surface-based instability.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates as the upper trough
ejects eastward will support weak elevated instability. As a result,
a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
southern Plains late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

..Leitman.. 03/20/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 201657
SWODY2
SPC AC 201656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected late Sunday centered over the
central High Plains. Severe storms are unlikely, but small hail
cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the West,
and will amplify into Sunday morning as a speed max aloft
intensifies across far southern AZ/NM and into northern Mexico.
Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will remain over the Mid Atlantic,
with a surface ridge extending from New England into TX and across
the western Gulf of Mexico.

As a result of the high pressure ridge, only weak moisture return is
expected across the southern Plains in advance of the western trough
as southerly surface winds increase. As low pressure develops late
in the period from NM into west TX, lift will increase, with
elevated instability developing from the TX Panhandle into western
KS.

Forecast soundings indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE will
develop, rooted between 850 mb and 700 mb. While effective
deep-layer shear will favor storm longevity, total instability may
only favor small hail, and severe storms appear unlikely.

..Jewell.. 03/20/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 210459
SWODY2
SPC AC 210457

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday
evening and Monday night across parts of central and southern
Oklahoma into northern Texas. Hail and gusty winds will be the main
hazards with these storms.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the Four Corners and northern Mexico
will develop eastward across the central/southern Plains on Monday.
In response to strong height falls, a surface low over the TX
Panhandle will deepen and lift northeast across KS toward northwest
MO by Tuesday morning. Strengthening southerly low level flow will
transport modest Gulf moisture northward across into OK and the
Ozarks ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the southern/central Plains
and Ozarks, with some marginally severe storms possible near the
cold front from north Texas into southern/central Oklahoma Monday
evening into the overnight hours.

...OK/TX...

Instability will remain weak across the region, in part due to only
weak surface heating and modest moisture return ahead of the cold
front/upper trough. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will
support 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE in a narrow corridor near/just ahead of
the cold front. A capping inversion will limit surface-based storms
through peak heating, and some boundary layer inhibition will likely
persist through the end of the period. As a result, thunderstorms
near the cold front will likely remain elevated. As a low level jet
increases during the evening, some organized cells capable of hail
and perhaps some gusty winds will be possible. Some upward
development into a fast-moving line or line segments is possible as
the cold front sweeps eastward toward eastern OK/northeast TX
overnight and a low-end severe threat could persist into the early
overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 03/21/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 211732
SWODY2
SPC AC 211731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Several severe thunderstorms are possible Monday evening and Monday
night across parts of Oklahoma into Texas. Hail and damaging gusts
will be most likely, with perhaps an isolated tornado.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region
Monday morning into the southern High Plains by late afternoon,
becoming negatively tilted by 12Z Tue across KS, OK, and AR. Low
pressure is expected to develop over the TX Panhandle or South
Plains during the afternoon, with a dryline and heating over west TX
during the day. A relatively cool but moistening air mass will exist
east of the dryline, from southern KS into OK and central TX. Abroad
belt of 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb winds will develop, aiding theta-e
advection. The most favorable large-scale lift will move from the
eastern TX Panhandle across OK and north TX, and this is where the
greatest confidence of a few severe storms is currently.

...TX and OK...
While model differences do exist, a strong upper trough with
significant cooling aloft/height falls will affect the region Monday
afternoon and night. Details regarding the best area for severe
storms may be best resolved into the Day 1 time frame, with a
possible Slight Risk in later updates. For now, have expanded the
Marginal Risk to include much of northern and central Texas, where a front/dryline will pass through Monday night.

As far as evolution, the initial severe risk is expected to form
Monday afternoon along the dryline from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK, and perhaps southward into west-central TX, in
close proximity to the steeper low-level lapse rates. The air mass
farther east toward I-35 will likely experience substantial clouds
and precipitation during the day, and may limit the initiated
eastward extend of the dryline convection. Still, a narrow zone of
severe potential is forecast, with isolated supercells possible
producing large hail. A brief tornado is possible.

Due to strong cooling aloft, storms may continue to be strong to
potentially severe overnight with 500 mb temperatures falling into
the lower -20 C to -24 C range across OK and northern TX. A slow
transition from rain and embedded storms to more substantial storms
is possible, with wind and hail risk.

Less confidence exists for storms farther south into central TX, but
models such as the ECMWF and 4km NSSL WRF show substantial storm
converge overnight.

..Jewell.. 03/21/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 221705
SWODY2
SPC AC 221704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ANOTHER AREA CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi on Tuesday, and from
northern Missouri into adjacent southern Iowa and western Illinois
during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move in negative-tilt fashion from OK and KS
Tuesday morning into MO, IL and IA by late afternoon, providing
cooling aloft and increasing shear. To the south, neutral height
tendencies aloft will exist across the lower MS Valley, as another
upper trough amplifies over the Southwest.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move from eastern KS
during the day into IA by evening, filling slowly with time. A cold
front will arc southeastward from the low, situated over MO during
the afternoon. Southerly surface winds will maintain low to possibly
mid 50s F dewpoints, resulting in sufficient instability for
scattered diurnal storms.

To the south, the more robust low-level moisture will exist ahead of
a stalling front, from central LA into southern MS with mid 60s F
dewpoints common. The eastward extend of the better moisture will be
limited by trajectories emanating out of a dry/modifying air mass
over the Southeast, but this effective warm front will provide
enhanced lift.

...LA into MS...
Numerous showers and storms should be ongoing along and ahead of the
cold front from LA into MS, with an instability axis near the Sabine
river at 12Z Tuesday. Much of this activity may be effectively
elevated at this time. By midday, surface parcels are likely to
become better incorporated into the ongoing convection, with new
development possible over central LA into southwestern MS. Although
the upper trough will continue shifting away from the area,
low-level convergence and ample moisture will ensure continued storm development, and a few severe storms will be possible. Strong
deep-layer shear as well as stronger low-level SRH with eastward
extend may support a supercell or two. If the supercells can
maintain access to the more unstable air to the southwest of the
diffuse warm front, a tornado would be possible. Otherwise, locally
strong gusts or hail is expected with mixed-mode storms.

...MO...IA...IL...
Early day rain and storms should quickly shift east across MO and AR
along the low-level jet axis. Although the surface low will be
slowly filling, daytime heating will produce a plume of steep
low-level lapse rates across much of central MO and extending into
southwest IA. With 50s F dewpoints and cold air aloft, the result
will be an uncapped and sufficiently unstable air mass to support
low-topped cells, including a few supercells. A broken arc of storms
is expected to form after 18Z over western MO, moving northeastward
toward southern IA and western IL by 00Z. Veering winds with height
as well as favorable low-level buoyancy may support a brief tornado,
along with marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 03/22/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains, mainly from Wednesday
evening into the overnight.

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave trough should advance northeastward Wednesday from
the Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes. A separate, low-amplitude
shortwave trough should also move across parts of the southern
Plains Wednesday afternoon, in advance of the main upper trough/low
over northern Mexico and the Southwest that should eject across the
southern Plains late Wednesday evening/overnight. The primary
surface low is forecast to develop northeastward across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through the day. A trailing cold front
should stall across portions of central/south TX, before lifting
northward into northeast TX and the lower MS Valley as a warm front
by Wednesday evening. A convectively reinforced boundary should also
be in place near the central Gulf Coast at the start of the period
Wednesday morning. This boundary should also lift slowly northward
through the day.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning along the
central Gulf Coast region, mainly southern LA/MS/AL. This convection
may continue to pose an isolated/marginal severe threat through the
morning, but the better severe potential will probably tend to
remain offshore where greater low-level moisture and related
instability should be present. Additional thunderstorm development
across the lower MS Valley and southern Plains along the
northward-developing warm front appears unlikely through much of the
day, as a low-level inversion/cap should inhibit robust updraft
development.

As the primary upper trough/low moves eastward across the southern
High Plains late Wednesday, a southerly low-level jet should
gradually strengthen across parts of central/east TX into the lower
MS Valley. Elevated instability should increase Wednesday
evening/night across this region along/north of the surface warm
front, as somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates develop eastward
from the higher terrain of northern Mexico and west TX. Current
expectations are for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to form
near the ArkLaTex region Wednesday evening, and subsequently move
northeastward towards the Mid-South through the end of the period.
The presence of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 45-55+ kt of effective
bulk shear suggest a threat for mainly large hail. A tornado or two
and occasional strong/gusty winds cannot be ruled out either given
the strength of the low-level flow/shear. But, this tornado/wind
threat appears rather conditional at this time, and dependent on
sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based storms.

Farther west, at least weak instability should develop by early
Wednesday evening across parts of north-central TX into OK. A
secondary cold front will move eastward across the southern Plains
late in the wake of the low-amplitude shortwave trough. Isolated to
perhaps widely scattered storms may develop across parts of
central/north TX into OK during the evening, where strong deep-layer
shear and sufficient instability should support a threat for locally
strong to severe wind gusts and large hail. This isolated severe
threat may continue through the overnight hours into parts of east
TX, but uncertainty remains too high regarding surface-based storm
potential to include a larger Slight Risk area across central/east
TX at this time.

..Gleason.. 03/23/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 241730
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for an outbreak of severe storms including several
long-track strong tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and severe/destructive winds, will exist Thursday into Thursday evening
across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley,
and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough with attendant 70-100 kt+ mid-level jet will
eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS
Valley on Thursday, and continue over the OH Valley and lower Great
Lakes region Thursday night. At the surface, a weak low over
northeast TX at the beginning of the period Thursday morning is
expected to likewise develop northeastward to the mid MS Valley
through the day while deepening. A warm front attendant to this
cyclone will likely lift northward across the lower MS
Valley/Mid-South and TN Valley towards the lower OH Valley by
Thursday evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from
northeast TX into southern AR and northern MS/AL and TN. This
activity will likely be supported by a southerly low-level jet and
related warm advection. These storms should shift northward through
the morning, allowing for destabilization via diurnal heating to
occur across the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture with at
least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints (perhaps lower 70s), should
advect northward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, TN Valley,
and Southeast by Thursday afternoon. This increasing moisture,
coupled with diurnal heating, will likely support MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg developing over a fairly broad portion of these
regions.

A pronounced low-level jet (50-60+ kt) will overlie much of this
region as well, as large-scale ascent from the ejecting shortwave
trough overspreads the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity. Strongly
veering and strengthening wind profiles from the surface through mid
levels will support supercells. 0-1 km SRH along/south of the
surface warm front will likely reach 300-500 m2/s2, and low-level
mesocyclones capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes
appear likely with any supercells that can form. Scattered large
hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in diameter, and
severe/destructive winds also appear probable, both with supercells
and any bowing line segments that can develop. At this time, the
best potential for strong tornadoes appears to extend from parts of central/northern MS into western/middle TN and central/northern AL,
mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as storms move generally
northeastward. Concern does exist regarding the effect of storms
forming during the morning on the development of instability, and
potential for destructive interference from too many storms
developing across the warm sector at the same time. Still, given the
very favorable environment forecast across this region and the
potential for numerous supercells, an upgrade to High Risk for
multiple strong to potentially violent, long-track tornadoes may be
needed in a later outlook update.

...Ohio Valley...
Fairly widespread precipitation should occur over a majority of the
lower OH Valley through the day. This should temper diurnal
destabilization to some degree, but weak instability will probably
still develop along/east of the surface low and northward-moving
warm front. At least an isolated severe threat may develop late
Thursday afternoon into the evening as the southerly low-level jet
strengthens over this region and low-level moisture increases. The
potential for a low-topped line of storms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will exist given the strength of
the low-level flow and related shear. These storms will likely be
tied to a cold front as it tracks northeastward through the evening
and overnight hours.

..Gleason.. 03/24/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible late Friday afternoon
into early evening over a portion of north central and northeast
Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Other strong storms are possible from
the central and eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. Late Friday
night a few strong storms with hail might develop from northern
Mississippi into western Tennessee.

...North-central through northeast Kansas...

A weak surface low should develop across western KS by early evening
in association with a minor shortwave trough ejecting northeast
through the Central Plains during the afternoon. A warm front will
extend east from the low through northeast KS with a dryline/trough
southward through west central KS. Dewpoints in the upper 40s to
near 50 F will advect northwestward through the warm sector. Despite
the limited moisture, surface heating in presence of cold air aloft
with steep lapse rates will support up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE by late
afternoon or early evening. A few strong to severe storms might
develop by late afternoon along the warm front near the KS/NEB
border and farther west near the triple point. Strong vertical shear
will favor low-topped supercells capable of large hail, locally
strong gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. There is still some
lingering uncertainty regarding the mesoscale details, so will
maintain MRGL for this outlook. However, an upgrade to SLGT risk
might be warranted in future updates.

...Carolinas through southern Georgia...

A progressive shortwave trough will continue northeastward into the
Northeast States Friday. A strong low-level jet initially from
eastern NC into the Middle Atlantic will move offshore by mid day.
Tendency will be for the deeper forcing and stronger low-level winds
to lift northeast away from the moist warm sector present across the
Carolinas and Gulf Coast States. A corridor of modest instability
should evolve in pre-frontal warm sector in the presence of strong
deep shear. While a few storms with mainly a threat for locally
strong wind gusts might develop along the cold front during the day,
tendency for low-level winds to veer and weaken in the presence of
only shallow forcing suggests overall severe threat should remain
marginal.

....Lower Mississippi Valley region...

The front will stall along southern portions of the Gulf Coast
States during the day, but should begin to move back northward as a
warm front Friday evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Destabilization and isentropic ascent resulting from this process
might contribute to the development of mostly elevated storms later
Friday night or early Saturday. A few instances of hail might occur
with some of this activity.

..Dial.. 03/25/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 261726
SWODY2
SPC AC 261724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi
through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including
large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Potential for a strong
tornado exists from eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee. Other
severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with
isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats.

...Synopsis...
At upper levels, a southern stream shortwave trough will move
through the southern High Plains into central Texas. A northern
stream shortwave trough will amplify across the upper Midwest. These
features will eventually phase late in the period near the
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front in the Southeast
will advance northward before slowing/stalling in the vicinity of
the Tennessee Valley. A surface cyclone will deepen across Illinois
and Wisconsin and bring a cold front through the upper Midwest
southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys...
Moisture return will be ongoing at the start of the period and
through the day. With upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoint currently
along the Gulf Coast, it seems probable that mid to upper 60s
dewpoints will exist in the warm sector. Given potential for
elevated thunderstorms to develop along the northward advancing warm
front, there is some uncertainty as to how far north the effective
boundary will be. Even so, surface heating should support
boundary-layer destabilization with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the
afternoon. Effective shear will be strong at 50-65 kts. Organized
storms will be capable of all severe hazards. The greatest potential
for tornadoes and larger hail will exist with storms that develop on
the slowing warm front where more cellular development would be
possible. Later in the evening, the cold front will move through the
region and damaging wind gusts will become the primary threat,
though QLCS circulations will also be possible given adequate
low-level shear profiles.

...Midwest...
Mid-level cooling along with the northern stream trough will support
storm development along the cold front during the afternoon. Limited boundary-layer moisture will keep buoyancy more marginal with
northward extent, though 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Strong
deep-layer wind profiles and cold temperatures aloft will support
marginally severe hail and isolated damaging wind gusts.

...Carolinas...
A broad region of southerly flow will develop south of a stalled
front within the Carolina Piedmont region. Isolated storms may
develop along/near the boundary. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will bring potential for
marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Wind gust potential
will be maximized where parcels are surface based along and south of
the boundary.

..Wendt.. 03/26/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 270557
SWODY2
SPC AC 270556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas into the Mid
Atlantic Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will also
be possible from the central and southern Appalachians into parts of
the Southeast.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Southern and Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
At the surface, a cold front will advance quickly eastward across
the central and southern Appalachians as a surface low deepens in
southwest Ontario. By midday, the warm sector will be located across
all of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic where surface dewpoints are
forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. Convection is expected to
develop along much of the front in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
during the morning. Thunderstorm development will likely take place
as the storms move eastward into the central and southern
Appalachians. An isolated wind damage threat will be possible with
the stronger line segments as the storms move into the higher
elevations during the late morning into early afternoon.

Further to the east, moisture advection will take place across the
Mid Atlantic as a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet strengthens during the
day. Warming surface temperatures will result in a corridor of
instability from the eastern Carolinas northward into eastern
Virginia, where MLCAPE is expected to reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range. The storms in the central and southern Appalachian Mountains
should move quickly eastward across the Appalachian Foothills during
the mid afternoon, reaching the lower elevations near peak heating.

Forecast soundings along the instability axis from northern North
Carolina into eastern Virginia at 21Z on Sunday have nearly
unidirectional winds in the low to mid-levels with effective shear
in the 60 to 70 knot range. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are
forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km. This combined with about 40 kt of
flow at 1 kilometer above ground should be favorable for damaging
wind gusts. The fast moving nature of the storms could result in
wind gusts above 65 knots along the leading edge of the stronger
line segments. For this reason, a hatched significant wind contour
has been maintained from parts of central and northern North
Carolina northward into Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. In
addition, the stronger cells in the line could rotate and have an
isolated tornado threat. The line of storms is forecast to move
offshore during the mid to late evening.

...Southeast...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley today as a cold front advances southeastward into
the Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 60s F from parts of southern and central Mississippi
northeastward across much of Alabama and Georgia. As surface heating
warms, a narrow corridor of moderate instability may develop ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front
around midday as low-level convergence increases. Steep low-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal
wind damage and hail threat during the early to mid afternoon.

..Broyles.. 03/27/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 271726
SWODY2
SPC AC 271724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely along an advancing cold front
from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. The highest confidence in
damaging winds is in southeastern Virginia and vicinity. Farther
south and west, a few strong to severe storms are possible from
Mississippi into Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A potent upper-level shortwave trough will continue to intensify as
it moves out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
A surface cyclone will deepen in Ontario/Quebec with an attendant
cold front roughly along the Appalachian crest. This front will move
quickly eastward and serve as the focus for strong to severe storms
from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and portions of the
Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Low-level flow ahead of the cold front is forecast to increase to
40-60 kts in the lowest 1-2 km. This, along with the speed of the
front, should favor strong to severe wind gusts. Some gusts could be
in excess of 65 kts with the stronger storms. A relatively more
favorable corridor for wind damage appears probable along the NC/VA
border into southeast VA. Here, surface temperatures are expected to
the mid 70s F with mid 60s F dewpoints, supportive of 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic profiles in
the boundary-layer with around 7 C/km lapse rates by the afternoon.
Given the potential for a line segment to develop along the front in
this region, an Enhanced risk has been introduced. Low-level
hodographs are favorable for tornadoes, particularly if discrete
storms can develop ahead of the front.

Farther north into the Mid-Atlantic, low-level wind fields will be
stronger, but buoyancy will generally be less on account of
decreased boundary-layer moisture and greater cloud cover limiting
surface heating. However, 500+ J/kg MLCAPE will still exist will
still favor severe, convectively augmented surface gusts. Should
greater heating occur in pockets, closer to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could
develop and increase the overall threat for damaging winds.
Tornadoes will also be possible, but low-level thermodynamics and
storm-mode are more questionable this far north.

...Southeast...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible along the cold front
during the afternoon. Storm coverage and intensity becomes more
questionable as with southwestward extent as the main upper-level
forcing will be well removed from this region. However, residual
strong 850-500 mb winds on the southern flank of the departing
trough will support at least a marginal threat for damaging wind
gusts. The threat will be maximized with any organized line segments
that can develop. At this time it appears most likely to occur in
portions of northern GA and western SC.

..Wendt.. 03/27/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 280553
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Monday across southern and
central Florida. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move southward into the central Florida on Monday.
Daytime heating along with surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the
south of the front may result in enough instability for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. However, thunderstorm coverage
should remain very isolated and no severe weather is expected.
Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm
development is not forecast Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated storm or two may occur along the sea breeze boundary in
Florida. Weak forcing and warm temperatures aloft should keep
thunderstorm coverage below 10%.

A cold front will reach central/south Florida by early Monday. A
diurnal sea breeze storm could occur along the western Florida
coast, but warm air aloft keeps thunder probability below 10%. Later
in the period, the surface high will shift east and the boundary
will lift north. A subtle shortwave trough will move into southern
Georgia overnight. Weak ascent within the frontal zone should keep
thunderstorm chances minimal.

..Wendt.. 03/28/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 291806
SWODY2
SPC AC 291805

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Arklatex and lower
Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
few strong to severe storms are possible.

...Arklatex through lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...

A positive-tilt upper trough will amplify southeast through the
Plains and MS Valley region Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. The
cold front will move into the central and southern Plains and middle
MS Valley during the day, reaching the lower MS Valley and TN Valley
regions during the evening and overnight. A warm front will advance
northeast through the lower MS Valley during the day, and into the
TN Valley Tuesday night.

Modest destabilization will occur from eastern TX into the lower MS
Valley as richer low-level moisture advects northward in wake of a
warm front. A corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop during
the day, primarily within zone of isentropic ascent along and north
of the warm front across the lower MS Valley region. This activity
will spread northeast into the TN Valley Tuesday evening and
overnight. The stronger winds aloft accompanying the amplifying
upper trough will remain north of the warm sector, but will increase
Tuesday evening and overnight. A modest southwesterly low-level jet
will also shift east through the warm sector where vertical wind
profiles from evening into the overnight will become sufficient for
organized storms. However, current thinking is that most of the
warm-advection storms will remain slightly elevated along and north
of the warm front. Other storms will develop along the
southeast-advancing cold front and spread into the Arklatex region
during the evening where potential will exist for a few instances of
hail and strong wind gusts. At this time confidence is not high
enough for more than a MRGL risk category, but the area will
continue to be monitored for a possible SLGT risk in day 1 updates.

..Dial.. 03/29/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
portions of the Southeast, with damaging gusts the primary severe
threat. More isolated severe storms are also possible across parts
of the Mid Atlantic, with the severe threat potentially continuing
after dark.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will continue to amplify while progressing eastward
across the Ohio Valley towards the Atlantic coastline tomorrow
(Wednesday). During the late morning/early afternoon, a surface low
is expected to gradually develop in advance of the upper trough
across the central Appalachians and move northeastward towards lower
New England while an associated cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is
expected ahead of the aforementioned surface low across the lower
Hudson Valley and along the front extending into Texas. At the
moment, buoyancy appears to be greatest across portions of
Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, where the greatest coverage for thunderstorms and associated risk for severe is currently expected.
However, while buoyancy is weaker across portions of the Carolina
Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic, stronger dynamic forcing for ascent
and kinematic fields may promote at least isolated severe storm
development across this area as well.

...Portions of the Southeast U.S...
Stronger flow aloft and associated upper support is expected to lag
the surface cold front and remain roughly parallel to the baroclinic
zone, likely promoting linear convective structures along the front
forced primarily by low-level convergence. Nonetheless, deep
moisture (characterized by upper 60s F dewpoints), and the presence
of a diurnally heated/mixed boundary layer promoting 7.5 C/km
low-level lapse rates are expected to foster 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
by late morning/early afternoon. The available instability and mixed
boundary layer should support the potential for organized damaging
gusts, with a Slight risk introduced. 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates
and linear forcing suggest that marginally severe hail is possible,
albeit on a more isolated basis. Lastly, a few CAMS have hinted at
one or two discrete cells initiating ahead of the front. Should mature/sustained pre-frontal convection develop, enough low-level
speed and directional shear will be present to support brief,
transient rotation and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

...Portions of the Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic...
By mid afternoon extending into the evening hours, scattered
thunderstorm development is expected within a confluence zone ahead
of the approaching surface low. Compared to areas farther southwest,
upper flow will be more perpendicular to the cold front/surface lee
troughing, with deep-layer ascent overspreading the area. A 30-40 kt
low-level jet will also be in place, fostering up to 150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH, suggesting that storm organization and transient
low-level rotation is possible. However, instability is expected to
be marginal despite mid 60s F dewpoints. Mediocre low and mid-level
lapse rates currently support tall-skinny MLCAPE profiles,
suggesting that the overall severe threat should be relatively
localized/brief in nature. However, any storm that can manage to
become organized/sustained may pose a threat for damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/30/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 311705
SWODY2
SPC AC 311703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula Thursday. Severe weather appears unlikely across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as ridging aloft
builds into the central U.S and a mid-level shortwave trough
impinges on the Desert Southwest tomorrow. The departure of the East
Coast trough and approach of the central U.S. ridge will foster
widespread surface high pressure and large-scale tropospheric
descent behind a cold front poised to cross the Florida Peninsula.
As such, widespread stable conditions will limit thunder potential
in the post-frontal environment across much of the CONUS. Ahead of
the front, isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are
expected during the afternoon and early evening hours across
portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE residing atop 8 C/km lapse rates in the sfc-850 mb layer
suggests that thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport
may promote modestly gusty conditions. A damaging gust cannot be
completely ruled out, though the threat appears too conditional to
delineate with severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 03/31/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 011730
SWODY2
SPC AC 011728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will move to the
western Atlantic on Friday. In its wake, upper ridging will prevail
across much of the western and central states. At the surface, high
pressure will dominate the majority of the CONUS. A weak shortwave
trough should move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the
period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of this region
during the afternoon, with additional convection possible for parts
of the southern High Plains Friday evening and overnight. Low-level
moisture is expected to remain very limited across these areas.

..Gleason.. 04/01/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 020520
SWODY2
SPC AC 020519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Fri Apr 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level trough initially near the NM/TX/Mexico border will
move east-southeast and weaken as it nears the lower Rio Grande
Valley by daybreak Sunday. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
will reside across the southern High Plains atop lower 40s to lower
50s F dewpoints. Weak instability will maximize during the late
afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are possible from southeast NM
to the Edwards Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms may continue into
the overnight into parts of the TX Hill Country and Rio Grande
Valley. Storm organization is not expected largely due to weak
instability.

Elsewhere, mid-level ridging will lead to quiet conditions for
thunderstorms across the remaining contiguous United States.

..Smith.. 04/02/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 030524
SWODY2
SPC AC 030522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A flattened mid-level ridge will be centered over the central Great
Plains into the Upper Midwest ahead of an amplifying mid-level
trough over the Pacific Northwest. In the low levels, a broad area
of low pressure will develop over the northern Great Plains to the
southeast of a southward-moving cold front over the northern
Rockies/northern High Plains. Southerly flow will advect upper 40s
dewpoints into parts of NE. Although strong heating and a well
mixed boundary layer will weaken the cap by late afternoon, little
in the way of forcing for ascent will greatly limit thunderstorm
coverage if convective initiation occurs. The possibility for
isolated elevated thunderstorms or a small thunderstorm cluster will
extend from parts of NE northeastward into the Upper Midwest
primarily during the evening into the overnight. This activity will
probably remain disorganized despite very steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates via an elevated mixed layer.

..Smith.. 04/03/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 031654
SWODY2
SPC AC 031652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude mid/upper ridge centered over the northern/central
Plains will slowly shift eastward toward the Midwest/upper Great
Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. This will occur as a shortwave
upper trough develops southeastward across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, broad low
pressure/lee trough will develop over portions of the
northern/central High Plains while strong high pressure persists
over the southeastern U.S.

Southerly low level flow will allow mid 40s to low 50s surface
dewpoints to spread northward beneath the upper ridge into portions
of the mid/lower MO Valley and central/southern Plains vicinity.
Very steep midlevel lapse rate will spread eastward into the
central/northern Plains vicinity, resulting in weak MLCAPE during
the afternoon and evening. However, weak forcing and a capping
inversion will likely limit convective development for much of the
day. By evening, weak height falls and a developing low over NE may
be sufficient for isolated high-based thunderstorm development from
far southeast CO/western KS/eastern NE. This activity is expected to
remain unorganized and sub-severe, though may continue into the
overnight hours into parts of IA/southern MN/southwest WI.

Additional thunderstorms could develop during peak heating closer to
higher terrain into northeast NM and near the Davis Mountains in
southwest TX. This activity will be diurnally driven and should
dissipate quickly with sunset.

..Leitman.. 04/03/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 040519
SWODY2
SPC AC 040517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the upper Mississippi Valley and parts of northwest Texas on Monday.

...Synopsis...
In the mid to upper levels, a disturbance will glance the Upper
Midwest as it moves east from Saskatchewan to western Ontario to the
north of a flattened mid-level ridge over the MS Valley. Farther
west, a potent mid-level trough will move southeast from the Pacific
Northwest to the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. In the low
levels, a broad area of low pressure centered over SD with a southward-extending lee trough will consolidate to a developing
surface cyclone along the KS/CO border by Monday night as a cold
front pushes southward over the Upper Midwest and northern Great
Plains.

...Upper MS Valley...
Model guidance is beginning to converge on a scenario of
thunderstorm development initially beginning during the afternoon
(perhaps over northeast SD or west-central MN) as a cold front
pushes southeast. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures coupled
with low to mid 50s F dewpoints are yielding around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. A cluster of thunderstorms will probably evolve near the
front during the late afternoon/early evening and move
east-southeast during the overnight hours. Isolated large
hail/damaging gusts are the primary hazards before this activity
weakens as it moves beyond the instability axis.

...TX Panhandle/South Plains...
Strong heating is forecast on Monday as the western edge of low 50s
deg F dewpoints contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by peak
heating. Models are indicating appreciable CINH remaining,
especially in areas slightly east and removed from the dryline.
However, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop
farther west on the Caprock escarpment with localized erosion of the
remaining cap and convective initiation a possibility. Although
coarser deterministic models are void of a precip signal thus far,
recent convection allowing models are showing a couple of storms
(potentially a supercell or two) developing within a zone of 700 mb
moistening by the EC model with good run-to-run consistency. The
localized severe risk will likely diminish by 02 UTC as CINH
increases.

...Southeast ID into northern UT...
Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent during the afternoon will
likely lead to convective showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing near the southeastward-moving cold front. Despite
relatively low moisture content, very steep low to mid-level lapse
rates coupled with strong frontal forcing will probably result in
localized strong gusts near convection. If instability appears
marginally higher, a 5-percent wind risk may be introduced in later
outlook cycles.

..Smith.. 04/04/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 041657
SWODY2
SPC AC 041656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the upper Mississippi Valley into Nebraska, and parts of northwest
Texas on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A compact upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces
and international border vicinity will develop eastward to western
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. A second upper
shortwave trough will dig south/southeast from the Pacific Northwest
into the Great Basin/northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad area
of low pressure/surface troughing will develop from MN southwestward
through eastern SD/NE and western KS, while a dryline extends
southwestward across the OK/TX Panhandle and eastern NM vicinity.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected along the surface
trough/cold front by late afternoon across parts of MN/SD/NE, some
of which could be strong to severe. A more conditional severe threat
is possible near the dryline across parts of northwest TX.

...Upper Midwest/Central Plains vicinity...

Southerly low level flow will transport 50s F surface dewpoints
northward across the mid/upper MS and MO Valley vicinity ahead of
the southeastward advancing cold front. Strong CINH will preclude
thunderstorm development for much of the day. However, strong
heating will result in a well-mixed boundary layer and eroding cap
by peak heating. 50s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30-40 kt effective
shear. As upper forcing increases with the approach of the shortwave
trough in tandem with low level frontal forcing, thunderstorms are
expected to develop by late afternoon from north-central MN into
eastern SD. Low level flow below 700 mb will remain rather weak, and
while an isolated supercell is possible, convection will likely
develop into clusters or line segments along the cold front. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be the main concern with this activity as
it shifts east/southeast into western WI/northern IA during the
evening.

A more conditional severe threat will develop southwestward along
the surface trough/cold front into parts of central/eastern NE.
Forcing will be much weaker here, and a stronger cap will be in
place. Nevertheless, a couple of high-based and/or elevated
supercells could develop during peak heating as inhibition becomes
weaker. Very steep lapse rates will contribute to 2000-2500 MLCAPE
amid supercell wind profiles. A storm or two could produce isolated
large hail and perhaps locally strong downburst winds for a short
time during the late afternoon/early evening.

...Northwest TX...

A conditional threat for a severe storm or two will exist near the
dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. Low level moisture
will remain unimpressive, with dewpoints generally from the upper
40s to low 50s. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will promote
MLCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg amid supercell wind profiles.
Considerable CINH will prevent convective development across much of
the region, but strong heating resulting in a well-mixed boundary
layer could result in a narrow corridor along the dryline where a
storm or two could develop. Isolated large hail and strong wind
gusts could accompany any organized storm that develops in this
corridor.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 051704
SWODY2
SPC AC 051703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the central and
eastern Kansas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Hail and strong
gusts will be the main hazards associated with this activity.

...Synopsis...

A compact upper low and its attendant trough will shift east from
the Great Basin to the central/southern Plains on Tuesday. A surface
low will deepen over western KS and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity
through the first half of the forecast period. This area of low
pressure will become more elongated overnight from mid-MO Valley
into the southern Plains as a cold front shifts east/southeast
across the central/southern Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains vicinity...

Strong CINH will preclude thunderstorm initiation through late
afternoon. As the surface low deepens and the upper low begins to
eject eastward, moderate southerly low level flow will transport
mid-50s to low 60s dewpoints northward across the southern/central
Plains and mid-MO/mid-upper MS Valleys. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low to the OK/TX border and then
southwestward into southwest TX. While strong heating is forecast
near the dryline across TX, a stout cap is expected to remain in
place and little development along the dryline is expected. More
likely, convective initiation will occur during the late
afternoon/early evening closer to the surface low as a cold front
drops southeastward and overtakes the dryline across west-central
KS. Continued low level moistening beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates will result in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid effective shear
greater than 30 kt. Organized clusters and line segments along the east/southeastward advancing cold front will mainly pose a threat
for large hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts. Convection may
remain somewhat elevated, and forecast soundings are persistent in
maintaining at least weak near-surface CINH. This should temper the
tornado threat, despite favorable low level shear/enlarged 0-3km
hodographs.

Further north across the mid-MO Valley vicinity, instability will be
weaker. However, clusters of thunderstorms could produce near-severe
hail and gusty winds.

...Delmarva/Chesapeake Vicinity...

Moderate northwesterly deep layer flow is forecast across the region
as a strong upper low moves offshore the Northeast coast and an
upper ridge slides slowly eastward across the Midwest. Surface
dewpoints are forecast to increase into the upper 40s and low 50s
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, resulting in weak instability
during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, forecast soundings
show a well-mixed boundary layer developing as temperatures warm
into the 70s. While severe storms are not expected given weak
instability, a couple of convective showers and/or storms could
produce locally strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 061734
SWODY2
SPC AC 061732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the lower
Mississippi Valley with other isolated severe storms possible
farther north over the middle Mississippi Valley.

...Lower Mississippi Valley region...

Shortwave trough now moving through the central Rockies will
continue east southeast through the southern Plains and lower to mid
MS Valley Wednesday. Partially modified Gulf Air with low to mid 60s
F dewpoints will advect northward along a strengthening southerly
low-level jet, contributing to a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Widespread low clouds are expected in the warm sector which will
limit boundary layer destabilization to some degree. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop by mid day along and just ahead of a Pacific
cold front accompanying the shortwave trough from central MO
southward through AR and northeast TX. Mixed storm modes are
expected, and vertical wind profiles with 50+ kt effective bulk
shear will support the potential for organized storms with both line
segments and some supercell structures. Hodograph size will increase
as the low-level jet strengthens with up to 300 m2/s2 storm relative
helicity supportive of low-level mesocyclones and potential for a
few tornadoes, especially across the lower MS Valley during the
afternoon and early evening. However, the degree and extent of the
tornado threat will depend on whether or not sufficient boundary
layer destabilization can occur given likelihood of widespread low
clouds in warms sector where forecast soundings exhibit poor
low-level lapse rates. Some severe threat, mainly in the form of
damaging wind will continue into the overnight across a portion of
the lower MS Valley. An enhanced risk for severe storms might be
introduced for a portion of this region in day 1 updates.

...Middle MS Valley...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through the
morning across parts of MO/IA and thereby limit greater instability
from developing over the area. However, a rejuvenation to storms is
expected during the afternoon near the surface low and possibly
farther east ahead of residual decaying convection near the MS
River. Uncertainty largely related to instability will seemingly
limit the overall severe threat. Nonetheless, weak instability
coupled with deep-layer shear sufficient for organized thunderstorms
will conditionally support a marginal severe risk for storms during
the day. Activity will likely weaken by the early evening.

..Dial.. 04/06/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 081733
SWODY2
SPC AC 081731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southeastern
Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast States Friday through Friday night. This may include the
development of one or two organized thunderstorm clusters, with the
potential to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts. Large, damaging
hail and a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid-level low over the middle Missouri Valley is already in
the process of migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley.
This should continue through Friday and Friday night, as blocking
remains prominent downstream within the downstream flow, and another
vigorous upstream short wave (emerging from the northern
mid-latitude Pacific), continues inland, across the Rockies into the
Plains.

The lead impulse and associated surface cyclone are forecast to
continue to weaken, while migrating across and northeast of the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late Friday night. The cold
front trailing the cyclone currently curves from the Upper Midwest
through the lower Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, and is already
becoming increasingly diffuse. As this continues, models suggest
considerable boundary-layer moistening will occur into and through
this period across a broad area of the southeastern Great Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley. It appears that this will coincide with
the northeastward advection of elevated mixed-layer air, on the
southwestern periphery of the departing mid-level troughing, and
ahead of a perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude or
subtropical eastern Pacific.

Models indicate that this southern perturbation will accelerate
across Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley by late Friday night,
within west-northwesterly to westerly flow in advance of the digging
short wave of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin. It appears that
associated forcing for ascent will contribute to new surface
cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley/Mid South vicinity by 12Z Saturday.

...Southeastern Great Plains into central Gulf States...
While there appears reasonable model consensus on the general
large-scale pattern evolution, considerable spread does exist
concerning the synoptic and, particularly, the sub-synoptic
developments for this period. Given moistening low-levels in the
presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates, it does appear that
substantial mixed-layer CAPE could develop Friday, in the presence
of strong vertical shear. This provides support for the risk of
severe storm development, though the extent, focus/details remain
unclear at the present time. Based on the latest guidance, there
does appear potential for the evolution of multiple clusters of
severe storms Friday and Friday night, with isolated to widely
scattered discrete supercell development also possible.

There does appear a consistent signal in the model output that
large-scale ascent along a strengthening mid-level baroclinic zone
may provide support for increasing thunderstorm development across
the Ark-La-Tex vicinity through southern Arkansas by mid day Friday.
As the boundary-layer destabilizes, there appears potential for
this activity to evolve into an intensifying and organizing
mesoscale convection system which will tend to advect/propagate
eastward across the north central Mississippi/Alabama vicinity
before weakening Friday evening.

The approach of the southern mid-latitude/subtropical Pacific
impulse may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development upstream,
along the trailing convective outflow, by Friday evening. This may
evolve into another organizing cluster of severe storms, which will
probably tend to develop east-southeastward across the lower
Mississippi Valley through early Saturday.

Given the steep mid-level lapse rates, sizable CAPE and strong
shear, stronger initial storm development may be accompanied by the
risk for large, damaging hail, before activity grows upscale with
damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent hazard, along with
the possibility of a few tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 04/08/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 100423
SWODY2
SPC AC 100422

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Florida
Peninsula.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the Midwest and its attendant trough extending
southeastward through the southeast U.S. will pivot northeast on
Sunday. The upper low will become oriented over the lower Great
Lakes by Monday morning, while the associated trough extends along
the Mid-Atlantic coast and offshore the southeastern U.S. coast.
This should maintain moderate west/southwesterly flow from the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians southward through Florida for much
of the period. A surface low stacked beneath the upper low over the
Great Lakes will not move much, but instead weaken through the
period. A cold front will extend from western PA along the
Appalachians and into southeast AL and then just offshore from
south-central LA. While the southern most segment of the front will
stall along the central Gulf coast, much of the front should shift
eastward, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic cost and into northern
Florida by Monday morning.

A mature MCS/QLCS is forecast to be ongoing across parts of northern
Florida Sunday morning. Some severe threat could persist with this
system as it tracks southeastward across the Florida Peninsula
through the day.

...Florida...

Most guidance has a mature MCS/QLCS over northern FL at the
beginning of the period, and the evolution of the severe threat on
Sunday will depend on where exactly this activity is located during
the morning, and specifically how far south any outflow may develop
early in the period. This could impact how much CINH exists and how
much recovery can occur through peak heating. Nevertheless, mid to
upper 60s dewpoints will be in place, and at least weak
destabilization should occur amid 35-45 kt effective shear. This
should be sufficient to support at least a low-end threat for
locally damaging gusts and hail.

...Delmarva into parts of eastern PA...

Modest low level moisture is expected to extend northward into the
Chesapeake vicinity, with mid 50s to near 60 F surface dewpoints
forecast. Stronger forcing closer to the surface and upper lows,
along with a better-defined cold front surging eastward should
provide focus of isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Instability is currently forecast to remain weak,
generally less than 1000 J/kg, along with modest vertical shear.
Midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and a deeply mixed boundary layer
resulting in steep low level lapse rates also will overspread the
region. Some locally gusty winds or small hail could accompany any
stronger cells. However, weak low level winds and overall modest thermodynamic/kinematic environment will preclude severe
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 101712
SWODY2
SPC AC 101710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across the
central Florida Peninsula and isolated strong to severe storms are
possible in portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes on
Sunday. At the surface, a cyclone will occlude through the day as it
moves from northern Illinois to southern Ontario through the period.
At the beginning of the period, an occluded front will extend from
the surface low in northern Illinois to western Pennsylvania. A cold
front will extend from this occluded front southward to the Gulf
Coast States.

...Florida...
An MCS should be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the
Florida Panhandle into the northeastern Gulf as a result of
increasing isentropic ascent from a strengthening low-level jet.
This activity is expected to mature during the morning hours as it
moves into the central Florida peninsula. Extensive cloud cover will
likely limit surface heating, but temperatures in the low 70s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s should be adequate for moderate
instability, especially given the moderate mid-level lapse rates.
The greatest severe threat will likely be during the morning hours
when the most intense convection is expected to be oriented
north/south as it crosses central Florida. Through time, the
convection is expected to become parallel to the deep-layer flow and
thus the outflow is likely to outrun the convection to the south.
This may limit the overall severe threat by mid to late afternoon as
the MCS sags south across the Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary hazard with this activity.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Modest low-level moisture is expected to surge northward ahead of a
cold front which will move through the Mid-Atlantic through the day.
This cold front will serve as the primary focus for isolated to
scattered strong to severe storm development during the afternoon
and evening hours on Sunday. Moderate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg
is expected across the Carolinas into Virginia ahead of this storm
activity Sunday afternoon. Farther north, instability is expected to
be weaker but sufficient for a marginal damaging wind threat.
Effective shear of 35 to 45 knots across the warm sector will aid in
storm organization as it moves east-northeastward with damaging
winds as the primary threat. Large hail will be a greater threat
from Maryland southward where greater instability is forecast.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 04/10/2021

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