AXAU01 APRF 170634
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0634 UTC 17/01/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Joshua
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.1S
Longitude: 89.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [244 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/0.6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 17/1200: 18.5S 89.2E: 035 [070]: 040 [075]: 993
+12: 17/1800: 18.7S 88.4E: 050 [090]: 040 [075]: 993
+18: 18/0000: 19.0S 87.7E: 055 [105]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 18/0600: 19.1S 86.9E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 18/1800: 19.1S 85.1E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 997
+48: 19/0600: 19.2S 82.9E: 095 [175]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 19/1800: 19.7S 80.3E: 110 [200]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 20/0600: 20.5S 77.8E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 1001
+96: 21/0600: : : :
+120: 22/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
After an overnight period that saw deep convection weaken and an exposed LLC emerge, Joshua has redeveloped a pulse of convection and banding close to the LLC.

Intensity has been held at 40 knots based on Dvorak. Scat passes continue to miss the system though SATCON is steady at 40 knos. Dvorak FT estimated at 3.0 [3h curved band 0.7 wrap] with CI held at 3.0.

While shear is low easterly, SSTs are only marginal at around 27C and there is limited low-level inflow and moisture feed from the north - factors that may account for the lack of development.

Latest model guidance confines the area of gales largely to southern quadrants before weakening after 24-36 hours.

A general west southwest track is expected to persist and the system has now passed out of the Australian region. Further information will be available from Meteo France La Reunion RSMC.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins issued for this system by the Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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