WTIO30 FMEE 061839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 79.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

120H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN WAS MAINTAINED WITH A
WARM-UP IN THE CENTER. THIS DEFINES AN INITIAL EYE PATTERN THAT
APPEARS MORE AND MORE CLEARLY ON THE LAST INFRARED IMAGES. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ASCAT DATA, THE DVORAK A 4.5- ANALYSIS ALLOWS A WIND
ESTIMATE OF AROUND 65KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE MAIN CENTERS THAT HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON
FARAJI'S TRACK ARE NUMEROUS: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. UNDER THESE CONTRADICTORY INFLUENCES, THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY
ERRATIC AND SLOW IN A GENERAL SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THEREAFTER, WITH THE CLEARING OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, FARAJI IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD TRACK TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST. AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, A RIDGE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AS DOES THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH GRADUALLY REGAINS THE UPPER HAND OVER THE
GUIDING FLOW. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD
MAKE A TURN TO THE WEST IN CONNECTION WITH ITS WEAKENING. THESE
MULTIPLE INFLUENCES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FOR THE MODELS, WHICH
GENERATES A STRONG DISPERSION REFLECTING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON
FARAJI'S TRACK FROM MONDAY. THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS IS RATHER ON
THE SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE WESTWARD TURN,
DURING THE RESUMPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED.

FARAJI IS LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHILE
SLIDING SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE WIND SHEAR. ON WATERS WITH
HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL, FARAJI SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SHOWING
SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR,
THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION FROM MONDAY THEN
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE FRANKLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS INTENSITY CHRONOLOGY (CONTRARY TO THE TRACK DIVERGENCE), SEVERAL SUGGESTING NOW A GOOD PROBABILITY TO REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.
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