417
AXNT20 KNHC 121016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between high pressure SE of Bermuda and
lower pressure over northwest Colombia is supporting gale force
ENE winds offshore Colombia near Barranquilla early this morning,
along with seas of up to 11 ft (3.5 m). The gradient will relax
later today as the high pressure moves farther east, allowing
gales to end.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: ttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N23W, then continues to 02N22W.
The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N32W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is evident from 00N to 02N between 29W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front resides along the northern Gulf coast
from the Florida Panhandle to Deep South Texas. South of this
boundary, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 26N92W is
dominating the weather over the basin. A generally light,
anticyclonic flow is established over the basin, except for gentle
NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri, bringing light
to gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to
fresh speeds Fri night ahead of a cold front that will moves cross
the west and central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong winds and
rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

A surface trough that extends along 68W through the Mona Passage
is leading to scattered moderate convection within 120 nm south of
Puerto Rico. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail, with moderate to
fresh trades across most of the basin, with the except of the NW,
where gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing. Seas are 5 to
7 ft in the central and eastern basin, 5 to 9 ft in the SW, and 3
to 5 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, gale-force winds will end early this morning
offshore Colombia, but will pulse to near gale-force again tonight
due to the pressure gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low
and high pressure centered N of the region. Winds will continue to
pulse to strong nightly thereafter. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trades will prevail through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large NW swell over the central Atlantic continues to decay this
morning and seas have now fallen below 12 ft. Still, the long-
period-swell is leading to widespread rough seas of 8-11 ft for
all waters E of 60W. Across the same area, S of 25N, moderate to
fresh trades dominate. A dissipating cold stationary front from
31N31W to 25N45W separates two high pressure centers that are
providing waters N of 25N with mainly gentle winds.

Waters W of 60W and S of 25N are being dominated by ridging
associated with the western high pressure, centered near 30N50W
with 1022 mb. This is inducing gentle winds above moderate seas. N
of 25N, SW winds have increased to strong ahead of a cold front
that is sagging southward to just N of the area. Already rough
seas in this area of strong winds continue to build.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will enter NW waters
this morning. Ahead of the front, strong SW to W winds will
prevail N of 28N, along with rough to very rough seas. These
hazardous conditions will spread east through tonight, then
diminish Fri as the front weakens. By Fri night the cold front
will extend from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas, and the boundary
will sag SE and out of the area Sat night. On Sun, S winds will
increase to strong offshore Florida, in advance of another cold
front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon.

$$
Konarik
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)