WTIO30 FMEE 061236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 79.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

120H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED FURTHER, WITH
COOLER DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CDO.
THE ONGOING STRENGTHENING OF THE INNER CORE IS CONFIRMED BY THE 89HZ
IMAGE OF THE 1041Z SSMI, WHERE A CLOSED EYE IS NOTICED. BUT THIS EYE
DOES NOT APPEAR ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THIS STRUCTURE AND THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUGGEST THAT
FARAJI COULD EXPERIENCE A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE OPPOSITE
INFLUENCE OF TWO MAIN RIDGES: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.UNDER THESE CONTRADICTORY INFLUENCES,
THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ERRATIC AND SLOW IN A GENERAL
SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, DURING THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS,
UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE PRESENT IN THE 500/400HPA IN
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM (DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM).
THEREAFTER, THE ISOLATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
FARAJI, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
THE ERASING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, SHOULD PUSH IT MORE SHARPLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE
BECOMES STRONGER IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND FARADJI'S TRAJECTORY
TRACKS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY WAY. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FOR THE NUMERICAL MODELS, WHICH LEADS TO A STRONG DISPERSION REFLECTING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S POSITION FROM
MONDAY.

FARAJI LIES BELOW THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE SLIDING
SOUTHWARDS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING SHEARING. ON WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY
POTENTIAL, FARAJI SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE WEEKEND. FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS
MOVING NEXT THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, REVEALING A SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALOFT. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STRONGLY
SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN STOP IT FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS. ON TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER SHEAR INCREASES AND
SHOULD WEAKEN THE METEOR MORE EFFECTIVELY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL SCENARIO. SEVERAL
GUIDANCES NOW SUGGESTING A GOOD PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE RANK OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS.
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