WTPS13 NFFN 030600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 030754 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUCAS CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S 167.1E AT
030600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

TC LUCAS WEAKENING, CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT
WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
CYCLONE IN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEARED PATTERN WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS DVORAK T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 23.0S 166.7E MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 23.6S 165.8E MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 24.6S 164.5E MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 25.7S 163.1E MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC LUCAS WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 031400 UTC.
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