WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 23.6S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.2S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.2S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.0S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.2S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.0S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.2S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.4S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 114.9E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON IMAGERY
FROM A 021046Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE, MULTIPLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE RAIN BANDS
DEPICTED IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER,
AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING THROUGH A REGION OF LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH. THEREAFTER, A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
AN EROSION AND SUBSEQUENT REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING STR.
DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE STR RE-POSITIONS AND WILL UNDERGO A
TEMPORARY, QUASISTATIONARY MOTION THROUGH TAU 36 AS A RESULT.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 18S WILL ENTER THE WARM (27-28 CELSIUS)
WATERS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KTS
BY TAU 72. AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS, IT WILL DRIVE TC 18S
POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 48, AND COOLER SST (<26 CELSIUS)
AFTER TAU 96, WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 35 KTS BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT
AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE IN THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THUS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z.
//
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