AXAU01 APRF 011908
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1907 UTC 01/02/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 21.5S
Longitude: 117.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A overland
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 02/0000: 22.1S 116.0E: 030 [060]: 025 [045]: 991
+12: 02/0600: 22.6S 115.2E: 045 [080]: 030 [055]: 990
+18: 02/1200: 22.9S 114.6E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 990
+24: 02/1800: 23.0S 114.1E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 988
+36: 03/0600: 23.0S 113.5E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 984
+48: 03/1800: 23.0S 112.9E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 981
+60: 04/0600: 22.9S 112.2E: 105 [190]: 045 [085]: 977
+72: 04/1800: 23.4S 111.6E: 115 [215]: 050 [095]: 975
+96: 05/1800: 25.6S 111.6E: 150 [280]: 045 [085]: 978
+120: 06/1800: 28.7S 112.5E: 180 [330]: 040 [075]: 978
REMARKS:
Tropical low 12U remains easily identifiable over land with Dampier radar. The low continues to exhibit a well organised structure. Confidence in the position is high.

Other than land, environmental influences [low-moderate easterly wind shear and moist inflow from the northwest] remain conducive to development.

The low continues its west southwest movement parallel to the Pilbara coast, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. This keeps the system over land preventing any further development until it reaches the far northwest coast.
he
most likely scenario is that it moves off the NIngaloo coast on the upper west coast late Tuesday or early Wednesday and then develops, however there is a small chance it could stall before moving off the coast and remain too close to land to develop.

On Wednesday the system is expected to slow as the upper steering pattern is affected by the approach of a mid-latitude trough. From Thursday [+72h] a secondary upper level trough approaches from the southwest which may assist in development and influence a more southerly track off the west coast.
nomalously
warm water off the west coast may also assist in maintaining the system at TC intensity longer than would normally be the case.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0130 UTC.

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