TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 311530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/311530ZJAN2021-311800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311354ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 31JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 311500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 69.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 387
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 310518Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
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ABIO10 PGTW 241800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT/TYPHOON/WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/241800Z-
251800ZMAR2021//RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.5S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241309Z SSMIS 37GHZ DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 95S IS CURRENTLY
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (29 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING 95S, WITH UKMET, NAVGEM,
AND CMC SHOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION, BUT OTHERS
INDICATING THAT 95S WILL REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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